Political Science paper for 2 page
qiao1159
day22-CampaignsandElections.pptCampaigns & Elections
Professor
Matthew N. Beckmann
*
Introduction
Johnson vs. Goldwater, 1964
“In your heart, you know he’s right.”
“In your guts, you know he’s nuts.”
The Daisy Ad
Outline
Part I. Two Views of Elections
Part II. The Candidates and Campaigns
a. The Two-Stage Process
b. Media
i. Paid Media
ii. “Earned” Media
c. Money
Part III. The Voters
a. Whether to Vote
b. How People Decide
Part IV. The Heart of Democracy
Two Views of Elections
Mandate Theory
Elections are a way for voters to tell officials what they should do once in office. Those elected have obligation to follow that message.
Two Views of Elections
Mandate Theory
Elections are a way for voters to tell officials what they should do once in office. Those elected have obligation to follow that message.
Accountability Theory
Elections are a way for voters to tell officials whether they like what they’ve done. Those elected are free to act, but ultimately will be held accountable for those actions.
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
First Stage:
Getting the Nomination
Second Stage:
Winning the Election
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
First Stage:
Getting the Nomination
This is the part of the campaign where candidates compete to be their party’s nominee in the general election. Thus it is Dems vs. Dems, Reps vs. Reps.
50s-60s: “Insider Game”
1974: Watergate
1976: Jimmy Carter
80s+: “Open Game”
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
First Stage: Getting the Nomination
Some Distinguishing Characteristics
- More Ideological, Issue-Oriented Electorate
- The Firsts: Iowa and New Hampshire
- Retail Politics
- “Frontloading”
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
Ethnic Demographics of Iowa and New Hampshire
Compared to National Average
2010 U.S. Census
Black
or
African American
American Indian
and
Alaska Native
Asian
Native Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific Islander
Hispanic or
Latino
(of any race)
IA
3.7
0.5
2.5
0.1
5.8
NH
1.5
0.3
2.7
0.1
3.5
US
13.3
1.3
5.7
0.2
17.8
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
Second Stage: Winning the Election
This is the part of the campaign where each party’s candidate competes to win the job.
The Candidates and Campaigns
The Two-Stage Process
Second Stage: Winning the Election
Some Distinguishing Characteristics
- Non-ideological, Non-issue Oriented Electorate
- Battleground States
- Big Events: Convention and Debates
The Candidates and Campaigns
Media
Advertisements (“Paid Media”)
Important Point:
Voters Do Learn From Political Ads, Regardless of Their Tone.
| Positive | Contrast | Negative |
The Candidates and Campaigns
Media
News Coverage (“Earned Media”)
Horserace
Strategy
Scandals
Gaffes
Sound-bites and Visuals
The Candidates and Campaigns
Money
Money in US Elections Started Being Regulated in 1971 – the Federal Election Campaign Act.
The Candidates and Campaigns
Money
Donations
Contributions by individuals and groups given to candidates or parties.
These are (sort of) regulated.
Independent Expenditures
Money spent by individuals and groups in support of a candidate or party.
Unregulated.
The Candidates and Campaigns
Money
One New Implication: Rise of Dark Money
Political spending where the donors are not disclosed
and the source of the money is unknown.
The Voters
Whether to Vote
Since the founding, the proportion of people eligible to vote in elections has increased to nearly 100% of citizens aged 18+.
However, nowadays only about 40 to 60% of those eligible to vote actually do so.
The Voters
Whether to Vote
The Voters
Whether to Vote
Who Votes…
Older, Informed, Educated
Interested, Efficacious
Recruited
Corresponding to other things we have learned about in this class, this means the electorate is more educated, wealthier, older, married, and “connected” (via unions, churches, or whatever) than the population at large.
The Voters
How People Decide
Party Identification
Candidate Evaluations
Performance (esp. economy and security)
Issues – not so much.
A Story About Sharks and Votes
1916 Jersey Shore
Week of Shark Attacks Leaves 4 Dead
Tourists Flee (75% Vacant in Summer!)
President Woodrow Wilson Vote In NJ
- Non-Beach Towns, No Difference
- Beach Towns, - 3 to - 10% (all else equal)
Elections
The Heart of Democracy
Elections are at the heart of any theory of popular sovereignty – either as a way of telling officials what to do or as a way of “throwing the bums out.”
Elections
The Heart of Democracy
Elections are at the heart of any theory of popular sovereignty – either as a way of telling officials what to do or as a way of “throwing the bums out.”
This makes understanding the nature of American elections integral to understanding how officials conceptualize and respond to “the people.”
Elections
The Heart of Democracy
2 Questions…
Do Elections Signal What Constituents Want?
Do Elections Hold Officials Accountable?
Research
Reliability of Length of PC
Words per Press Conference
Words Per Day
Research
Research
Reliability of PC News Coverage
*
Final Stuff
Plan: in-class final, Friday 3/20
Now: take-home final
… emailed to you on Wed 3/18 @ noon
… due uploaded to turnitin.com by Friday 3/20 at 2pm.
Final
2 Essay Questions
No more than 4 pages total
- double-spaced
1 in margins
12 point font
Times New Roman
