Political Science paper for 2 page
qiao1159
day12a-PublicOpinion.ppt
Professor
Matthew N. Beckmann
Public Opinion
*
“How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?”
just about always
most of the time
only some of the time
"Do you happen to know which party had the most members in the House of Representatives in Washington before the elections this month?”
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Outline
I. Introduction
II. The Concept of Public Opinion
III. Measuring Public Opinion
IV. How People Form Opinions
V. The Characteristics of Public Opinion
VI. The Death of Democracy?
The Concept of Public Opinion
Public opinion is what people think about person, event, issue, or whatever.
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”
The Concept of Public Opinion
The notion of “public” opinion, however, is a bit goofy. There is no “public.”
Instead, what we have is some combination of many “individual” opinions.
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Donald Trump is handling his job as president?"
Gallup Approval by party
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx
Measuring Public Opinion
When you hear a statement like “63% of Americans believe North Korea is not serious about nuclear diplomacy, ± 3” it sound very precise, very authoritative.
In fact, the business of measuring public opinion is really hard, and the results are far from precise.
Designing a Survey
Designing a Survey is One Part Science, One Part Art.
The Science: Whom to Interview? Statistical Sampling.
The Art: What to Ask? No Definitive Answer.
Measuring Public Opinion
Two Stages of Measuring Public Opinion
1. Designing a Survey
2. Executing a Survey
Measuring Public Opinion:
The Science
Designing
Whom to Interview?
Random Sample from target population (1 – 2k is good).
Executing
Problems
- Missing Folks
- Cell Phone Nation
- Refusals (now about 50%)
- Response Rate now about 5%
Why will interviewing people at a popular diner likely result in an unrepresentative sample?
A. It will result in a unrepresentative sample because it is most likely visited by similar customers with similar opinions. -- J
B. It might have a target crowd, for example, a Hipster Cafe would have a lot more liberals. -- C
Measuring Public Opinion:
Ring… Ring… Ring…
Cell Phone/Land Line
Cell Phone/Land Line
But Selection Bias Exists
1. Polls (esp. telephone) overstate people’s education.
2. Polls (esp. telephone) overstate people’s civic engagement, probably because of point 1.
Measuring Public Opinion:
The Art
Designing
What to Ask?
Executing
Problems
- Question Wording
- Question Order
- Early Q’s Affect Later Ones
- Response Set
- Answer Options
- “Don’t Know?”
- “Independent”
- Politically Incorrect
Measuring Public Opinion:
An Illustration
Say we want to find out about cheating among
UC Irvine undergraduate students.
Whom should we interview?
What should we ask?
Measuring Public Opinion:
An Illustration
“Do you think that the use of marijuana should be made legal or not?” (40% say legalize)
“Do you think doctors should or should not be allowed to prescribe small amounts of marijuana for patients suffering from serious illnesses?” (77% say legalize)
How People Form Opinions
Predisposition
+ Information Environment
= Opinion
How People Form Opinions
Predispositions
Socialization
Experiences
Events
Ideology?
Information Environment
Salience
Valence
Predispositions
Do you have the same party identification as your mom?
Yes
No
Information Environment
Predisposition + Information Environment
Characteristics of Public Opinion
“Chattering Class”
Interested
Informed
Ideological
“Ordinary Citizens”
Uninterested
Uninformed
Non-Ideological
Political Interest
Political Information?
Name Vice President.
Name Treasury Secretary.
Name Defense Secretary.
Name CIA Director.
Name Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Political Information?
Vice President – Mike Pence
Treasury Secretary – Steve Mnuchin
Defense Secretary – Mark Esper
CIA Director – Gina Haspel
Chair of the Federal Reserve – Jerome Powell
How’d you do?
0-1
2-3
4-5
Political Ideology?
Abortion
Taxes
Education
Defense
Social Security
Medicare
Energy
Banking Reform
Red/Blue Nation?
Pre-Election Polls
Connecting Opinions and Measurement
We can now better understand why measuring public opinion is so hard: people often don’t have them!
This is called the problem of non-attitudes.
Connecting Opinions and Measurement
Potential for Manipulation
Candidates
Reporters
Interest Groups
Corporations
The Death of Democracy?
Worrisome
Push incoherent policies
Lack information to reward or reprimand officials
Potential for manipulation
Not So Worrisome
Miracle of Aggregation
Pay Attention…
… when needed
… on important stuff
- Can Fix Mistakes
The Death of Democracy?
Also…
Highly informed citizens have many democratic virtues, but they also tend to be rigid, moralistic, and partisan. It is not obvious American democracy would work better if more citizens thought and acted like the most informed among us.
Go Vote!
