Carbon footprint
Cooper2021
CurrentThreatsIII-ClimateChangeBiology.pdf
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Biological effects of climate change An Organism’s Climate
Envelope
Temperature Precipitation Seasonality
An Organism’s Climate Envelope
Temperature Precipitation Seasonality
A warming climate effects all three.
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How will North American plants respond?
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Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a
given species.
Pika
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Talus slopes - Rocky Mtns.
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Pika
Above 78oF severe
physiological stress.
• 15% of historic populations extinct. • With only modest action - 75% gone by 2070. • Aggressive action - 51%.
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Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a
given species.
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Pine Beetle
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Temperature vs. Survival
Responses to physiological stress
• Stay in place. – Local or global extinction. – Acclimation. – Adaptation.
• Move. – Dispersal.
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Extinction
67 percent (dozens) of Harlequin Frog species extinct.
Chytrid fungus increase with temperature.
White Lemuroid Opossum
Australia
4hrs > 86F
fatal
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Thomas et al. Study
• Estimate species climate envelope. • Assume that species climate envelope will not
evolve significantly in 50 years. • Model with and without species based
dispersal. • Model three climate scenarios. • Range of extinction values from 18% to 35%. • Other studies predict up to 75% biodiversity
loss.
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Acclimation
European Black Cap
Over-wintering in England.
Behavioral Acclimatization or Evolutionary Adaptation?
Examples of Successful Adaptations.
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Red Squirrel
Over 10 years female squirrels now give birth on average 18 days earlier in the year than their great-grandmothers.
15% due to genetic change.
Bog Mosquito Adaptation
Mosquito Adaptation Holzapfel & Bradshaw
• 30 year New England Study. • Winter temperature up 4.4oF in 30 years. • Hibernation Timing.
– Come out too early use resources needed to survive.
– Go into too late freezes to death. • Hibernating 7.4 days later. • Showed evolutionary response in lab to
changed temperatures.
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Which species are most likely to adapt?
Which species are most likely to adapt?
Those with short generation times - 2 years or less.
Dispersal
Dispersal
• Dispersal Rate. • Presence of dispersal agent. • Availability of Suitable habitat.
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Different species move at different rates.
This can disrupt ecological interactions and have a ripple effect through a
community.
Synchronous vs. Asynchronous Dispersal.
Synchronous Dispersal Synchronous Dispersal
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Asynchronous Dispersal Asynchronous Dispersal
Latitudinal Range Shifts
North American and British
Birds Northward
Shift.
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Latitudinal Shifts
• Majority of North American birds have shifted ranges to the north in last 30 years. 2.35 kilometers/year.
• Majority of British Birds have shifted ranges to north.
• Wide geographic distribution of patterns implicates climate change.
Elevational Range Shifts
Dominant plant species along an elevation gradient shifted synchronously with one another over a 30-year span that had a concurrent temperature increase, based on
a new study by Kelly and Goulden (13)
Breshears D. D. et.al. PNAS 2008;105:11591-11592
© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Habitat Loss
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Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops
Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops
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The Hawaiian ‘I‘iwi
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White-tailed ptarmigan 58
Bicknell’s Thrush
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Polar Bears and
Habitat Loss.
Arctic Warming
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Sea ice is declining.
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
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• Bears use sea ice for feeding.
• Sea ice is declining. • Cubs survival.
decreasing and adult condition decreasing.
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat
• Bears use sea ice for feeding
• Sea ice is declining • Cubs survival
decreasing and adult condition decreasing
• Polar bear populations are declining where sea- ice thinning
Arctic Sea Ice Habitat Life Cycle Timing Cues
• Temperature. • Light/Dark Daily Cycle.
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Life Cycle Timing.
Cycles of Activity and Dormancy.
False spring and early bud burst.
Life Cycle Timing
Dispersal and Migration
American Woodcock
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Life Cycle Timing
Reproduction
Egg Laying Dates
• Migrate earlier. • Lay eggs earlier. • Response of Insect Prey. • Prey availability and reproductive timing may
be out of sync. • Birds can respond by:
– No response and population decline. – Acclimate and learn to breed in sync. – Population evolves to breed in sync.
Great Tits Prey and reproductive timing
• Dutch Birds became out of sync with prey over 32 years.
• British birds and caterpillars changes dates in synchrony over 47 years.
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MA Wildflower Blooming
Dates
Concord, Ma Temperature Change
Spring
Yearly
Temperature and flowering date.
Kyoto Japan Cherry Blossoms
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Global declines of caribou.
34 of 43 declining.
Average decline 57%.
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Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
• Habitat fragmentation. • Habitat fragmentation. • Arctic Warming.
– Increase in extreme weather events. • Freezing rain.
Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
• Habitat fragmentation. • Arctic Warming.
– Increase in extreme weather events. • Freezing rain.
– Phenology mismatch. • Birth of young and vegetation peak out of synchrony
Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations
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The big picture
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Solutions to climate change conservation impacts
• Mitigation. – Decrease atmospheric inputs of CO2. – Geoengineering.
• Adaptation. – Conventional conservation approaches. – Migration corridors. – Assisted migration.
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