for grade plus

1

T he control of radioactive m a t e r i a l s a n d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s h a s l o n g b e e n s a f e l y i n t h e h a n d s

o f s t a t e a c t o r s . 1 R e c e n t w o r l d e v e n t s , h o w e v e r , i l l u s t r a t e a c o n t e m p o r a r y e n v i r o n m e n t w h e r e n o n - s t a t e a c t o r s , s p e c i f i c a l l y t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s , h a v e a c q u i r e d s u c h m a t e r i a l s . I n J u n e 2 0 1 4 , t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) 2 r e p o r t e d l y s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f n u c l e a r m a t e r i a l c o n t r o l l e d b y t h e I r a q i g o v e r n m e n t a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M o s u l . 3 T h e I S I L a l s o e n t e r e d t h e

1 There are a few exceptions to this rule, but the sheer ex-

pense of developing and maintaining such materials and

weapons has been prohibitive to anyone but state actors.

2 In June 2014, the ISIL shortened its name to the “Islamic

State.” This article, however, still refers to the group by its

more common name, the ISIL.

3 Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim, “Letter Dated 30

June 2014 from the Permanent Representative of Iraq to

the United Nations Addressed to the Secretary-General,”

a l - M u t h a n n a p r o j e c t s i t e l o c a t e d 6 0 m i l e s n o r t h o f B a g h d a d n e a r t h e t o w n o f S a m a r r a w h e r e t h e “ r e m n a n t s o f t h e f o r m e r [ I r a q i ] c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s p r o g r a m w e r e k e p t . ” 4

T h e a l - M u t h a n n a s i t e i s a 1 0 0 - s q u a r e - k i l o m e t e r c o m p l e x t h a t h a s b e e n t h e c e n t e r o f I r a q ’ s c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s p r o g r a m s i n c e t h e 1 9 7 0 s . B e f o r e 1 9 8 6 , t h e s i t e w a s k n o w n a s t h e S t a t e E s t a b l i s h m e n t f o r P e s t i c i d e P r o d u c t i o n ( S E P P ) , a f r o n t c o m p a n y d e d i c a t e d t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s . D u r i n g t h e 1 9 8 0 s , t h e s i t e p r o d u c e d h u n d r e d s o f t o n s o f S a r i n , V X , a n d m u s t a r d a g e n t s . 5 A e r i a l b o m b i n g d u r i n g D e s e r t S t o r m d e s t r o y e d t h e r e s e a r c h a n d p r o d u c t i o n

United Nations Security Council, 2014.

4 Ibid.

5 “Al Muthanna Chemical Weapons Complex,” Central

Intelligence Agency, April 23, 2007.

The ISIL’s Theft of WMD Components in Iraq By Stephen Hummel

Contents

FEATURE ARTICLE 1 The ISIL’s Theft of WMD Components in Iraq By Stephen Hummel

REpoRTS 4 The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan’s Role in Attacks in Pakistan By Anne Stenersen 8 Swiss Foreign Fighters Active in Syria By Daniel Glaus and Lorenzo Vidino 11 Dutch Foreign Fighters Continue to Travel to Syria By Samar Batrawi and Ilona Chmoun 15 Boko Haram, the Chibok Abductions and Nigeria’s Counterterrorism Strategy By J.N.C. Hill 18 Contrasting the Leadership of Mullah Fazlullah and Khan Said Sajna in Pakistan By Daud Khattak

20 Recent Highlights in Political Violence 24 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts

jULy 2014 . VoL 7 . ISSUE 7

About the CTC Sentinel The Combating Terrorism Center is an independent educational and research institution based in the Department of Social Sciences at the United States Military Academy, West point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses the Center’s global network of scholars and practitioners to understand and confront contemporary threats posed by terrorism and other forms of political violence.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Government.

Rebels from the Islamic Front, Syria’s largest rebel coalition, clash with the ISIL near Aleppo on July 13, 2014. - Ahmed Deeb/AFP/Getty

2

f a c i l i t i e s a t a l - M u t h a n n a a n d e n d e d i t s a b i l i t y t o p r o d u c e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s . T h e e x a c t c o n t e n t s o f t h e t w o b u n k e r s t h a t t h e I S I L e n t e r e d a r e n o t g e n e r a l l y k n o w n , b u t a c c o r d i n g t o M i c h a e l L u h a n , t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s c h i e f f o r t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r t h e P r o h i b i t i o n o f C h e m i c a l W e a p o n s ( O P C W ) , “ t h e t w o b u n k e r s c o n t a i n e d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s w h i c h a r e p r e - 1 9 9 1 . ” 6

T h e I S I L ’ s e n t r y i n t o a l - M u t h a n n a a p p e a r s t o h a v e b e e n a n i s o l a t e d i n c i d e n t , a n d t h e l a c k o f s e c u r i t y a r o u n d a r e m o t e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s s i t e i n I r a q p a l e s i n c o m p a r i s o n t o t h e r e a d y a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s . R a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s a r e u s e d i n a v a r i e t y o f r e s e a r c h f i e l d s a n d m e d i c a l t r e a t m e n t s g l o b a l l y . S u c h m a t e r i a l s a r e g e n e r a l l y t i g h t l y c o n t r o l l e d a n d m o n i t o r e d a t i n s t i t u t i o n s s u c h a s h o s p i t a l s , w h i c h a r e r e q u i r e d t o u n d e r g o i n s p e c t i o n s a n d r e p o r t r a d i o a c t i v i t y . T h e s e m e a s u r e s a l o n e , h o w e v e r , d o n o t a l w a y s e n s u r e t h e s e c u r i t y o f t h e m a t e r i a l s . I n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 3 , f o r e x a m p l e , a t r u c k c a r r y i n g r a d i o a c t i v e w a s t e f r o m a h o s p i t a l i n T i j u a n a t o a s t o r a g e s i t e n e a r M e x i c o C i t y w a s s t o l e n . 7 T h e m a t e r i a l o n t h e t r u c k w a s c o b a l t - 6 0 , w h i c h e m i t s b o t h b e t a a n d g a m m a r a d i a t i o n . T h e r a d i o a c t i v i t y l e v e l s t h a t m a k e c o b a l t - 6 0 a s o u r c e o f r a d i o t h e r a p y a l s o m a k e t h e m a t e r i a l a p o t e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e f o r u s e i n a d i r t y b o m b . 8 T h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l i n M e x i c o w a s r a p i d l y r e c o v e r e d b y M e x i c a n s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a n d i t s t h e f t w a s a t t r i b u t e d t o “ c o m m o n c r i m e a n d n o t r e l a t e d t o t e r r o r i s m . ” 9 I n I r a q , h o w e v e r , t h e s t a t e d o e s n o t c o n t r o l t h e n e a r l y 4 0 k i l o g r a m s ( 8 8 p o u n d s ) o f u r a n i u m o r 0 . 1 2 5 k i l o g r a m s ( 0 . 2 8 p o u n d s ) o f t h o r i u m s t o l e n f r o m t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M o s u l , a n d t h e t h i e v e s a r e p a r t o f a k n o w n t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n . 1 0

6 Awad Mustafa, “Experts Assessing ISIL’s Seizure of

Iraqi Weapons Facility,” DefenseNews, July 2, 2014.

7 Randal C. Archibold and Paulina Villegas, “6 Arrested

in Theft of Truck with Radioactive Waste,” New York

Times, December 6, 2013.

8 A dirty bomb is a combination of radioactive material

and explosives such that the radioactive material is dis-

persed over a large area and exposes a large number of

people to its damaging effects.

9 Archibold and Villegas.

10 Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim, “Letter Dated

08 July 2014 from the Permanent Representative of Iraq

to the United Nations Addressed to the Secretary-Gener-

T h e l a c k o f c o n t r o l o f r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s a n d f o r m e r c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s a g e n t s i n I r a q i s a c o n c e r n , b u t t h e r e q u i s i t e s t o m a k e t h e s t o l e n m a t e r i a l s i n t o a w e a p o n o f m a s s d e s t r u c t i o n ( W M D ) a r e c u r r e n t l y l a c k i n g . T h i s a r t i c l e p r o v i d e s i m p o r t a n t t e c h n i c a l c o n t e x t s u r r o u n d i n g t h e c a p t u r e o f r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s a n d t h e p o s s i b l e t h e f t o f d e c a y i n g c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s b y t h e I S I L i n I r a q . I t f i n d s t h a t w h i l e s u c h i n c i d e n t s a r e a t h r e a t i n t h e i m m e d i a t e a n d l o n g t e r m i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t , t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r m a s s c a s u a l t i e s i s c u r r e n t l y l o w d u e t o s c i e n t i f i c a n d t e c h n i c a l c h a l l e n g e s f a c e d b y t h e I S I L .

Are the Stolen Materials WMD Capable? T h e s t o l e n r a d i o a c t i v e a n d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s m a t e r i a l s c l e a r l y p o s e a p o t e n t i a l t h r e a t , b u t c o u l d t h e I S I L e a s i l y t r a n s f o r m t h e m i n t o a W M D ?

U r a n i u m i s r e l a t i v e l y i n e r t d e s p i t e t h e f e a r t h e n a m e o f t e n i n s t i l l s . T h i s f e a r s t e m s f r o m t h e r o l e u r a n i u m p l a y s i n n u c l e a r w e a p o n r y a n d t h e d e s t r u c t i o n d e m o n s t r a t e d w h e n “ L i t t l e B o y ” w a s d e t o n a t e d o n A u g u s t 6 , 1 9 4 5 , o v e r H i r o s h i m a w i t h t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f 1 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s o f T N T . “ L i t t l e B o y ” c o n t a i n e d 6 4 k i l o g r a m s o f u r a n i u m - 2 3 5 . 1 1 T h e p r o c e s s t o s e p a r a t e t h e u r a n i u m i s o t o p e s d u r i n g W o r l d W a r I I w a s a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h g a s e o u s d i f f u s i o n , a n e x t e n s i v e p r o c e s s t h a t r e q u i r e d n e a r l y o n e - s e v e n t h o f t h e e l e c t r i c a l p o w e r i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a t t h e t i m e . 1 2

T h o r i u m i s m o r e a b u n d a n t t h a n u r a n i u m , a n d l i k e u r a n i u m i s o n l y s l i g h t l y r a d i o a c t i v e . T h o r i u m i t s e l f i s n o t a f i s s i l e m a t e r i a l ; h o w e v e r ,

al,” United Nations Security Council, 2014.

11 Uranium naturally occurs in three isotopes: uranium-

234, uranium-235 and uranium-238. Uranium-235 is the

fissile (material capable of sustaining nuclear fission)

isotope (form) of uranium yet composes only one percent

of the naturally occuring isotopes. To have enough fissile

uranium to form a nuclear weapon, the one percent of the

uranium is separated from the other 99% of the isotopes

in a complex process commonly referred to as enrich-

ment. There are additionally 26 artificially made isotopes

of uranium.

12 This vast amount of energy was required to power the

Y-12 where workers used calutrons to refine uranium

and at the K-25 plant where the uranium was enriched.

At the height of production during World War II, nearly

100,000 workers toiled to produce the material used in

the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan. See Alan Tay-

lor, “The Secret City,” Atlantic, June 25, 2012.

i t i s c o n s i d e r e d a “ f e r t i l e ” m a t e r i a l , m e a n i n g i t c a n a b s o r b n e u t r o n s a n d t r a n s m u t e i n t o u r a n i u m - 2 3 3 . 1 3 T h i s a r t i f i c i a l l y p r o d u c e d u r a n i u m c a n t h e n b e c h e m i c a l l y s e p a r a t e d f r o m t h o r i u m a n d u s e d a s n u c l e a r f u e l . 1 4 U r a n i u m - 2 3 3 p r o d u c e d f r o m t h o r i u m w a s u s e d

w i t h p l u t o n i u m - U - 2 3 3 d e v i c e s t e s t e d i n 1 9 5 5 . 1 5 T h e y i e l d o f t h e d e t o n a t i o n w a s l e s s t h a n a n t i c i p a t e d . 1 6 T h e p r o c e s s o f t r a n s m u t i n g t h o r i u m a n d t h e n s e p a r a t i n g t h e p r o d u c e d u r a n i u m - 2 3 3 i s c o m p l e x a n d n o t o n e t h a t t h e I S I L w o u l d e a s i l y b e a b l e t o a c c o m p l i s h w h i l e o n t h e m o v e i n I r a q .

B y d e f i n i t i o n , t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s a n d p r e c u r s o r m a t e r i a l s t o l e n f r o m t h e a l - M u t h a n n a s i t e a r e a l r e a d y W M D , b u t t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f t h e m a t e r i a l i s q u e s t i o n a b l e . E v e n i n i d e a l c o n d i t i o n s , s u c h a s t h o s e i n s p e c i a l l y e q u i p p e d “ i g l o o s ” t h a t m a i n t a i n t e m p e r a t u r e , h u m i d i t y , a n d p r e s s u r e , c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s l e a k a s s e a l s d e c a y . C o n d i t i o n s a t t h e a l - M u t h a n n a s i t e f o r t h e p a s t t w o d e c a d e s h a v e b e e n f a r f r o m i d e a l . I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e d a m a g e s u s t a i n e d d u r i n g b o t h O p e r a t i o n D e s e r t S t o r m a n d O p e r a t i o n I r a q i F r e e d o m , a s w e l l a s t h e i n a b i l i t y o f t h e g o v e r n m e n t t o r e b u i l d t h e c o m p l e x d u e t o U n i t e d N a t i o n s s a n c t i o n s , i t s e e m s l i k e l y t h a t t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s w e r e s t o r e d i n b u n k e r s t h a t w e r e n o t t e m p e r a t u r e o r h u m i d i t y c o n t r o l l e d .

13 Transmutation is the process of changing from one

element to another through nuclear bombardment or

disintegration.

14 “Thorium,” World Nuclear Association, March 2014.

15 Oliver Tickell, “The Promise and Perils of Thorium,”

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Octo-

ber 31, 2012.

16 Ibid.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“A dirty bomb laced with the materials stolen by the ISIL would be akin to blowing up a ceramic brick. The initial explosion would cause damage, but the effects of the radioactive material would be extremely limited.”

3

C h e m i c a l w e a p o n s a g e n t s a r e f r e q u e n t l y f o u n d a s l i q u i d s a n d s t o r e d e i t h e r i n a m m u n i t i o n r o u n d s o r r o c k e t s f o r i m m e d i a t e u s e , o r i n s e p a r a t e c o n t a i n e r s . T h e c o l l i g a t i v e p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e v i s c o u s l i q u i d a r e d e s i g n e d t o a b s o r b h e a t a n d p r o t e c t t h e f u n c t i o n g r o u p o f t h e a g e n t w h e n t h e r o u n d s d e t o n a t e . 1 7 T h e l i q u i d o f a c h e m i c a l w e a p o n i s a n a l o g o u s t o a g l a s s o f s a l t w a t e r — l e f t i n t h e o p e n , t h e w a t e r w i l l e v a p o r a t e l e a v i n g b e h i n d r e m n a n t s o f t h e o r i g i n a l s o l u t e s . T h e h a r s h e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s i n I r a q l i k e l y l e f t t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n r o u n d s e m p t y w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f a r e s i d u e i m m e d i a t e l y c o v e r i n g t h e r o u n d s . I n t h e a b s e n c e o f t h e v i s c o u s l i q u i d , t h e c h e m i c a l a g e n t s w o u l d b e s u b j e c t t o c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n s t h a t c o u l d p o t e n t i a l l y m a k e t h e a g e n t i n e r t . R e c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e c h e m i c a l a g e n t s w o u l d r e q u i r e t r e m e n d o u s e f f o r t t o i n c l u d e t i g h t l y c o n t r o l l e d l a b o r a t o r y c o n d i t i o n s a n d a p l e t h o r a o f r e a g e n t s .

What Are The Potential Uses? M o d i f y i n g t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s a n d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s i n t o a f u n c t i o n a l W M D w o u l d r e q u i r e m a t e r i a l s , s p e c i f i c l a b o r a t o r y c o n d i t i o n s , a n d t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e c u r r e n t l y n o t a v a i l a b l e t o t h e I S I L . D e s p i t e o s t e n s i b l y c o n t r o l l i n g a l a r g e s w a t h o f l a n d a c r o s s I r a q , t h e I S I L d o e s n o t p o s s e s s t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e t o c r e a t e W M D u s i n g l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s . I f t h e I S I L a c t i v e l y s o u g h t t o c o n v e r t t h e m a t e r i a l s i n t o a W M D , t h e y w o u l d l i k e l y s m u g g l e t h e m i n t o S y r i a w h e r e , d e s p i t e t h e o n g o i n g c i v i l w a r , a g r e a t e r l e v e l o f e x p e r t i s e a n d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e — e s p e c i a l l y n e a r t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s — e x i s t s .

I m m e d i a t e u s e s , h o w e v e r , r e s i d e i n t h e f o r m o f c h e m i c a l o r r a d i o a c t i v e d i r t y b o m b s . A d i r t y b o m b l a c e d w i t h r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l w o u l d n o t d e t o n a t e l i k e a n u c l e a r w e a p o n ; i n s t e a d , t h e u n c o n v e n t i o n a l d i r t y b o m b w o u l d d i s p e r s e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l o v e r a d e t o n a t i o n a r e a . M o r e o v e r , u r a n i u m a n d t h o r i u m h a v e r e l a t i v e l y l o n g h a l f - l i v e s , w h i c h m e a n s t h a t t h e d i s p e r s e d m a t e r i a l w o u l d r e m a i n r a d i o a c t i v e f o r a l o n g e r p e r i o d o f t i m e . 1 8 N e v e r t h e l e s s ,

17 The viscous solution contains particles designed to

alter the boiling point, vapor pressure and other proper-

ties of the solution so that it can absorb heat. The solution

and its colligative properties are akin to coolant in a car

radiator.

18 A half-life is the time required for one half of the atoms

a c c o r d i n g t o t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r E n e r g y a n d E n v i r o n m e n t a l R e s e a r c h , t h e m o s t a b u n d a n t i s o t o p e o f u r a n i u m , U - 2 3 8 , e m i t s b o t h a l p h a p a r t i c l e s a n d w e a k g a m m a r a y s . A s a r e s u l t , a s l o n g a s t h e i s o t o p e i s n o t i n h a l e d o r i n g e s t e d , t h e r e i s l i t t l e t o n o e f f e c t o n h u m a n s . 1 9 T h e r i s k s o f t h o r i u m e x p o s u r e a n d r a d i a t i o n p o i s o n i n g a r e s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f u r a n i u m . 2 0 A s l o n g a s t h e m a t e r i a l s a r e n o t i n g e s t e d o r i n h a l e d , t h e r e i s l i t t l e t o n o i n c r e a s e d r i s k f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i n c e t h e s e n a t u r a l l y o c c u r r i n g e l e m e n t s a r e p r e s e n t i n e v e r y d a y l i f e . B o t h e l e m e n t s a r e a l s o d e n s e . I f r e l e a s e d i n t o t h e a i r v i a a d i r t y b o m b , t h e y w o u l d r a p i d l y r e s e t t l e t o t h e g r o u n d , l i m i t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r i n h a l a t i o n e x p o s u r e .

C o n s e q u e n t l y , a d i r t y b o m b l a c e d w i t h t h e m a t e r i a l s s t o l e n b y t h e I S I L w o u l d b e a k i n t o b l o w i n g u p a c e r a m i c b r i c k . T h e i n i t i a l e x p l o s i o n w o u l d c a u s e d a m a g e , b u t t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l w o u l d b e e x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d . 2 1

S i m i l a r t o t h e r a d i o a c t i v e d i r t y b o m b , a n e x p l o s i v e d e v i c e c o n t a i n i n g t h e r e m n a n t s o f t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s f r o m t h e a l - M u t h a n n a p r o j e c t s i t e w o u l d h a v e a l m o s t n o c h e m i c a l a g e n t f a l l o u t . S i n c e t h e v i s c o u s p r o t e c t i v e f l u i d t h a t i s u s e d i n c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s h a s l i k e l y e v a p o r a t e d o v e r t h e p a s t t w o d e c a d e s , a n y e f f e c t s o f t h e a g e n t i n a n e x p l o s i v e d e v i c e w o u l d l i k e l y b e i n s i g n i f i c a n t . 2 2 V X , f o r e x a m p l e , d e c o m p o s e s a t a r a t e

of a radioactive substance to disintegrate. Uranium, for

example, has a half-life of 4.45 billion years. For details,

see “Uranium: Its Uses and Hazards,” Institute for En-

ergy and Environmental Research, December 2011.

19 Ibid.

20 “Thorium,” Environmental Protection Agency, Feb-

ruary 28, 2014.

21 The detonation would cause the brick to fragment

and then settle back to the ground. The stolen materials

would act in a similar fashion. The remnants of the chem-

ical weapons agents would be destroyed in the explosion

instead of aerosolized. The stolen radioactive materials

would not cause a secondary explosion or radioactive

plume. The dust and pieces of the material generated in

the explosion would settle and be indistinguishable to the

eye from other debris.

22 The chemical weapons potentially stolen from the

al-Muthanna site are likely highly degraded due to the

difficulty in maintaining the weapons and the difficulty

in ensuring the proper environment, especially through

bombings and wars. According to the CIA, the site sus-

tained heavy damage over the years. For more details, see

“Al Muthanna Chemical Weapons Complex.”

o f 5 % p e r m o n t h a t 7 1 d e g r e e s c e l s i u s , 2 3 h e n c e t w o d e c a d e s o r 2 4 0 m o n t h s i n a n o n - e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y c o n t r o l l e d b u n k e r w o u l d l e a v e l i t t l e , i f a n y , c h e m i c a l a g e n t . T h e d e s t r u c t i v e n e s s o f t h e d e v i c e w o u l d b e l i m i t e d t o t h e e x p l o s i v e n a t u r e o f t h e d e v i c e i t s e l f a n d n o t t h e r e m n a n t s o f t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n a g e n t .

I f t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s w e r e i n b e t t e r c o n d i t i o n t h a n a s s u m e d , l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a n s p o r t o f t h e w e a p o n s w o u l d b e d i f f i c u l t . S e a l s o n t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s c o n t a i n e r s w o u l d n a t u r a l l y d e g r a d e a n d b r e a k d o w n , m a k i n g t r a n s p o r t d i f f i c u l t a n d a d a n g e r t o t h o s e m o v i n g t h e w e a p o n s . I f t h e I S I L s o u g h t t o t r a n s p o r t t h e w e a p o n s v i a a i r c r a f t , t h e p r e s s u r e c h a n g e w o u l d p u s h t h e a g e n t t h r o u g h w h a t e v e r s e a l r e m a i n e d . T r a n s p o r t i n g t h e w e a p o n s v i a g r o u n d w o u l d a l s o c a u s e s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s a s t h e j a r r i n g t r a n s p o r t o f a t r u c k a l o n g u n p a v e d a n d p o t h o l e - f i l l e d r o a d s w o u l d l i k e l y c a u s e t h e d e g r a d e d s e a l s t o l e a k , a f f e c t i n g t h o s e t r a n s p o r t i n g t h e w e a p o n s .

What Are The Immediate Risks? A s t h e f i g h t i n g c o n t i n u e s i n I r a q a n d S y r i a , t h e r i s k o f t h e s t o l e n c h e m i c a l a n d r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s b e i n g t u r n e d i n t o a W M D i s e x t r e m e l y l o w . P e r h a p s t h e g r e a t e s t t h r e a t t o c i v i l i a n s w o u l d b e i f t h e I S I L a t t e m p t s t o p o i s o n o r c o n t a m i n a t e w a t e r o r f o o d s u p p l i e s . T o e m p l o y s u c h a t a c t i c , t h e I S I L w o u l d n e e d t o a t t a c k a s p e c i f i c t a r g e t o r g r o u p s i n c e s u c h a m e t h o d o f a t t a c k o n a r e s e r v o i r o r l a r g e w a t e r s o u r c e w o u l d s i m p l y d i l u t e t h e m a t e r i a l . I f t h e m a t e r i a l w e r e t o o d i l u t e d , t h e n t h e r e w o u l d b e n o n o t i c e a b l e e f f e c t . I t c o u l d c a u s e a h i g h e r l o n g - t e r m r a t e o f c a n c e r i n t h e a f f e c t e d p o p u l a t i o n , b u t i t w o u l d n o t b e d e b i l i t a t i n g o r i m p a c t t h e I S I L ’ s f i g h t e i t h e r i n I r a q o r S y r i a .

T h e m o s t d a n g e r o u s c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i s n o t e n v e l o p e d i n t h e i m m e d i a t e u s e s a n d r i s k s o f t h e s t o l e n m a t e r i a l s . I f t h e m a t e r i a l s a r e s m u g g l e d o u t o f I r a q a n d l i k e l y i n t o S y r i a , t h e n t h e I S I L c o u l d b e g i n t h e s l o w p u r i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s o f t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l o r a t t e m p t t o r e g e n e r a t e t h e d e a d l y p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e r e m n a n t s o f t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n a g e n t s . R e c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s i s s c i e n t i f i c a l l y a n d

23 “Potential Military Chemical / Biological Agents and

Compounds,” Field Manual 3-11.9, U.S. Army, Marine

Corps, Navy, Air Force, January 2005, pp. II-27

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

4

t e c h n i c a l l y e a s i e r t h a n t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l , b u t s t i l l n o t t r i v i a l . B o t h r e q u i r e e x p e r t i s e , c h e m i c a l r e a g e n t s , a n d , p e r h a p s m o s t i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e y r e q u i r e t i m e .

Conclusion T h e t h e f t o f t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l a n d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s a g e n t s m o s t l y i l l u s t r a t e s t h e I S I L ’ s b o l d a g g r e s s i o n i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t . D e s p i t e r a i s i n g s a f e t y c o n c e r n s a n d t h e u n s e t t l i n g n o t i o n o f t h e I S I L c o n t r o l l i n g a n y c o m p o n e n t s f r o m W M D , t h e r e a l i t y i s t h a t t h e I S I L ’ s m e m b e r s p u t t h e m s e l v e s a t r i s k o f e x p o s u r e v i a i n h a l a t i o n a n d i n g e s t i o n i n t h e a c q u i s i t i o n , s t o r a g e , a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f t h e m a t e r i a l . T h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s o f d e t o n a t i n g a d i r t y b o m b l a c e d w i t h e i t h e r t h e c h e m i c a l w e a p o n a g e n t s o r t h e r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s w o u l d a l s o b e m i n i m a l s i n c e t h e r e w o u l d b e l i t t l e t o n o v i s i b l e e v i d e n c e o f t h e m a t e r i a l s ’ p r e s e n c e i n t h o s e p e o p l e a f f e c t e d b y t h e b l a s t .

T h e r e a r e t w o g r e a t l i n g e r i n g c o n c e r n s r e g a r d i n g t h e s t o l e n m a t e r i a l s . W h a t i s t h e I S I L p l a n n i n g t o d o w i t h t h e m a t e r i a l s i n c e t h e i r i m m e d i a t e e f f e c t s i n I r a q a n d p e r h a p s S y r i a a r e l i m i t e d ? W h a t o t h e r m a t e r i a l s a r e v u l n e r a b l e i n e i t h e r I r a q o r S y r i a t h a t c o u l d b e u s e d t o g r e a t e r e f f e c t ?

R a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s s u c h a s u r a n i u m a n d t h o r i u m a r e “ d u a l p u r p o s e ” i n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e y c a n b e u s e d f o r g o o d i n e f f o r t s s u c h a s m e d i c a l t r e a t m e n t , o r f o r i l l i n t h e i r c o n v e r s i o n t o a d e a d l y u n c o n v e n t i o n a l w e a p o n . A s s e s s i n g a n d e n s u r i n g t h e s e c u r i t y o f t h e s e m a t e r i a l s i s p a r a m o u n t , a n d s h o u l d b e a c o n c e r n n o t o n l y i n I r a q a n d S y r i a , b u t t h r o u g h o u t t h e r e g i o n .

C a p t a i n S t e p h e n H u m m e l i s a F A 5 2 o f f i c e r a n d c u r r e n t l y s e r v i n g a s a n i n s t r u c t o r t e a c h i n g i n t h e C h e m i s t r y a n d L i f e S c i e n c e D e p a r t m e n t a t t h e U . S . M i l i t a r y A c a d e m y , W e s t P o i n t . C P T H u m m e l p r e v i o u s l y s e r v e d i n b o t h I r a q a n d A f g h a n i s t a n a n d a s t h e U S A R E U R C B R N p l a n s o f f i c e r .

T h e v i e w s p r e s e n t e d a r e t h o s e o f t h e a u t h o r a n d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h e v i e w s o f t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f D e f e n s e , t h e U . S . A r m y , o r a n y o f i t s s u b o r d i n a t e c o m m a n d s .

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan’s Role in Attacks in Pakistan

By Anne Stenersen

in the evening h o u r s o f J u n e 8 , 2 0 1 4 , 1 0 g u n m e n a t t a c k e d t h e o l d t e r m i n a l o f J i n n a h I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t i n K a r a c h i . T h e y w e r e a r m e d w i t h r i f l e s , r o c k e t s , g r e n a d e s a n d s u i c i d e v e s t s . T h e y c a r r i e d b a c k p a c k s w i t h f o o d a n d w a t e r , i n d i c a t i n g t h e y w e r e p r e p a r e d f o r a l o n g o p e r a t i o n . T h e y b a t t l e d w i t h s e c u r i t y f o r c e s f o r f i v e h o u r s , s e t b u i l d i n g s a b l a z e a n d f o r c e d a t e m p o r a r y s h u t d o w n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r t r a f f i c . T h e a t t a c k l e f t 3 4 p e o p l e d e a d , i n c l u d i n g t h e 1 0 a s s a i l a n t s . 1

T e h r i k - i - T a l i b a n P a k i s t a n ( T T P ) c l a i m e d t h e a t t a c k , b u t i t s o o n e m e r g e d t h a t t h e I s l a m i c M o v e m e n t o f U z b e k i s t a n ( I M U ) h a d p r o v i d e d t h e a s s a u l t t e a m f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n . U z b e k m i l i t a n t s h a v e b e e n i m p l i c a t e d i n a s t r i n g o f s i m i l a r a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n , m o s t n o t a b l y o n M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e i n M a y 2 0 1 1 , M i n h a s A i r b a s e a t K a m r a i n A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 a n d P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e i n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 . 2 T h i s r a i s e s t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e I M U h a s b e c o m e a s t r a t e g i c a s s e t t o t h e T T P , w i t h t h e c a p a b i l i t y t o s t r i k e h i g h - v a l u e t a r g e t s i n u r b a n c e n t e r s o f P a k i s t a n .

T h e I M U ’ s r o l e i n P a k i s t a n h a s s o f a r o n l y b e e n s u p e r f i c i a l l y t r e a t e d i n t h e e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e . R e c e n t s t u d i e s t e n d t o f o c u s o n t h e p o t e n t i a l t h r e a t f r o m t h e I M U a g a i n s t C e n t r a l A s i a a n d t h e W e s t a f t e r N A T O f o r c e s l e a v e A f g h a n i s t a n i n 2 0 1 4 . 3 T h e r e i s g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e I M U k e e p s s u p p o r t i n g P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a n t g r o u p s b e c a u s e t h e y a r e d e p e n d e n t o n t h e s a n c t u a r i e s p r o v i d e d t o t h e m b y t h e T T P a n d b e c a u s e “ t h e y a r e

1 “Karachi Airport Attack Signals Tactical Shift by Tali-

ban,” Reuters, June 12, 2014.

2 “TTP Using Uzbeks to Conduct Terrorist Attacks,” The

News International, December 18, 2012.

3 Luke Falkenburg, “On the Brink: The Resurgence of

Militant Islam in Central Asia,” Small Wars & Insurgencies

24:3 (2013): pp. 375-393; David Witter, “Uzbek Militancy

in Pakistan’s Tribal Region,” Institute for the Study of

War, January 27, 2011; Jacob Zenn, “The Indigenization

of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan,” Terrorism Moni-

tor 10:2 (2012); Duncan Fitz, “Central Asian Militancy: A

Primary Source Examination,” Center for Strategic and

International Studies, May 2014; “Pakistan’s ‘Fanatical’

Uzbek Militants,” BBC, June 11, 2014.

f o r e i g n e r s a n d h a v e n o c h o i c e . ” 4 A f e w s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e I M U ’ s o r i g i n a l a i m s a n d g o a l s h a v e b e e n d i l u t e d a n d t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n h a s b e e n d i s p e r s e d , d u e t o h e a v y t a r g e t i n g o f t h e I M U ’ s l e a d e r s h i p s i n c e 2 0 0 9 . 5 T h e e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e , h o w e v e r , f a i l s t o e x p l o r e t h e r o l e p l a y e d b y t h e I M U i n r e c e n t h i g h - p r o f i l e a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n .

T h i s a r t i c l e s e e k s t o f i l l t h i s g a p . I t c r i t i c a l l y e x a m i n e s c l a i m s o f t h e I M U ’ s i n v o l v e m e n t d u r i n g t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k a n d o t h e r h i g h - p r o f i l e m i l i t a n t o p e r a t i o n s a g a i n s t h a r d t a r g e t s i n P a k i s t a n . I t i s b a s e d o n p r e s s r e p o r t s , o f f i c i a l s t a t e m e n t s a n d t h e I M U ’ s o w n p r o p a g a n d a . T h e s e s o u r c e s a r e o f t e n b i a s e d , b u t t o g e t h e r t h e y m a y p a i n t a f u l l e r p i c t u r e t h a n h a s b e e n p r o v i d e d s o f a r . 6 T h e a r t i c l e f i n d s t h a t t h e s t r e n g t h a n d c o h e s i v e n e s s o f t h e I M U i n P a k i s t a n t e n d s t o b e c o n f l a t e d . T h e I M U h a s a s m a l l f o o t p r i n t o u t s i d e o f i t s t r a d i t i o n a l s a n c t u a r y i n t h e F e d e r a l l y A d m i n i s t e r e d T r i b a l A r e a s ( F A T A ) , a n d i t i s d e p e n d e n t o n l o c a l n e t w o r k s t o o p e r a t e i n p l a c e s s u c h a s S i n d h a n d P u n j a b . T h e r e a r e s o f a r f e w i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t I M U o f f i c i a l s h a v e b e e n i n v o l v e d i n m a s t e r m i n d i n g a t t a c k s o n P a k i s t a n i s o i l . T h e i r r o l e s e e m s l i m i t e d t o r e c r u i t i n g a n d t r a i n i n g s u i c i d e s q u a d s , 7 w h i l e l o c a l c o m m a n d e r s f r o m t h e T T P , f o r m e r K a s h m i r i n e t w o r k s , o r o c c a s i o n a l l y a l - Q a ` i d a s e l e c t t a r g e t s a n d t i m i n g f o r a t t a c k s . T h i s d o e s n o t m e a n t h a t t h e I M U s h o u l d b e d i s m i s s e d a s a

4 Fitz, p. 11; Peter Sinnott, “Peeling the Waziristan On-

ion: Central Asians in Armed Islamist Movements in

Afghanistan and Pakistan,” China and Eurasia Forum

Quarterly 7:4 (2009): p. 47.

5 Ibid.; Matthew Stein, “The Goals of the Islamic Move-

ment of Uzbekistan and its Impact on Central Asia and

the United States,” Foreign Military Studies Office, Janu-

ary 2013.

6 Press reports may not distinguish accurately between

the IMU, al-Qa`ida and other militant groups in Pakistan.

Pakistani authorities may have an interest in conflating

the role of the IMU and other external actors to achieve

popular support for military campaigns in FATA. The

IMU’s own publications are an invaluable and rather

under-exploited source of information, but must be read

as strategic communication, the aim being to attract new

recruits and financing to the organization.

7 In this article, suicide squads refer to both suicide

bombers (fighters who wear suicide vests and who in-

tend to blow themselves up during battle), and “fidayin”

(fighters who are not wearing suicide vests, but who

nevertheless expect to die during a confrontation with

security forces).

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

5

s e r i o u s t h r e a t i n t h e f u t u r e . T h e I M U h a s d e m o n s t r a t e d i t s c a p a b i l i t y t o c a r r y o u t d e a d l y a n d r e l a t i v e l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d a t t a c k s c o m p a r e d w i t h m a n y o t h e r g r o u p s o p e r a t i n g i n t h e s a m e t h e a t e r . T h e I M U ’ s p r i m a r y w e a k n e s s i n P a k i s t a n i s n o t i t s l a c k o f c a p a b i l i t y , b u t i t s l a c k o f c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p a n d d e p e n d e n c e o n l o c a l n e t w o r k s t o o p e r a t e .

The Karachi Airport Attack T h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k w a s a m b i t i o u s , w e l l - p l a n n e d a n d r e l a t i v e l y w e l l - e x e c u t e d , c o m p a r e d t o s i m i l a r a t t a c k s c l a i m e d b y t h e T T P i n t h e p a s t . T h e a t t a c k e r s e n t e r e d t h e a i r p o r t f r o m a t l e a s t t w o s i d e s , w e a r i n g u n i f o r m s a n d u s i n g f a k e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n c a r d s t o p o s e a s A i r p o r t S e c u r i t y F o r c e ( A S F ) p e r s o n n e l . 8 O n c e i n s i d e t h e a i r p o r t , t h e y r e p o r t e d l y o p e r a t e d i n p a i r s . 9 T h e l a r g e n u m b e r o f w e a p o n s a n d o t h e r e q u i p m e n t f o u n d o n t h e d e a d m i l i t a n t s s p e a k s t o t h e h i g h a m b i t i o n s o f t h e a t t a c k .

T h e f i g h t i n g t o o k p l a c e i n a n d a r o u n d a n o l d t e r m i n a l b u i l d i n g , w h i c h i s r a r e l y u s e d f o r c i v i l i a n a i r t r a f f i c . T h i s l e d s o m e o b s e r v e r s t o c l a i m t h a t t h e a t t a c k h a d f a i l e d b e c a u s e t h e a s s a i l a n t s d i d n o t m a n a g e t o r e a c h t h e c i v i l i a n p a s s e n g e r t e r m i n a l . T h e o r i g i n a l a i m o f t h e a t t a c k , h o w e v e r , i s n o t k n o w n . T h e T T P ’ s a n d t h e I M U ’ s o w n s t a t e m e n t s a b o u t t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e a t t a c k d i f f e r , a n d i n a n y c a s e c a n n o t b e t a k e n a t f a c e v a l u e . 1 0 T h e l a r g e n u m b e r o f p e t r o l b o m b s c a r r i e d b y t h e m i l i t a n t s i n d i c a t e s t h e y w e r e g o i n g t o c a u s e m a t e r i a l d a m a g e ,

8 Some reports indicated that they were not successful

in deceiving security guards, and that they therefore had

to enter the airport by force. According to one source, the

militants raised suspicion because they were wearing the

wrong type of shoes. See “Karachi Airport Attack Signals

Tactical Shift by Taliban”; “Assault on Pakistan Airport

Signals Taliban’s Reach and Resilience,” New York Times,

June 9, 2014; “At Least 18 Pakistanis Killed by Assailants

Who Stormed Karachi Airport,” Washington Post, June 9,

2014.

9 “More Than Two Dozen Dead as Taliban Assault Paki-

stan’s Main Airport,” Reuters, June 9, 2014.

10 The TTP said that the goal of the attack was to hijack

aircraft and hold passengers hostage, while the IMU’s

statement said that the operation targeted “fighter jets,

American drones and other military planes” in a special

section of the airport, and that it did not intend to tar-

get civilian passengers. See “Statement Regarding the

Martyrdom Operation in Karachi Airport,” Jamia Hafsa

forum, June 10, 2014; “What’s Behind Karachi Airport

Attack?” CNN, June 9, 2014.

p r e s u m a b l y t o a i r c r a f t . 1 1 T h i s w o u l d f o l l o w t h e p a t t e r n o f p r e v i o u s a t t a c k s o n m i l i t a r y b a s e s i n P a k i s t a n . I n t h e a t t a c k o n M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e i n K a r a c h i i n 2 0 1 1 , t w o P 3 - C O r i o n s u r v e i l l a n c e a i r c r a f t w e r e d e s t r o y e d . 1 2 T h e a t t a c k o n M i n h a s A i r b a s e i n P u n j a b i n 2 0 1 2 a l s o r e s u l t e d i n d a m a g e t o a i r c r a f t w o r t h m i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s . 1 3 M o r e o v e r , o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s m u s t h a v e k n o w n t h a t a n y a t t a c k o n t h e a i r p o r t , e v e n t h e o l d t e r m i n a l , w o u l d l e a d t o a t e m p o r a r y s h u t d o w n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r t r a f f i c t o a n d f r o m P a k i s t a n ’ s b u s i e s t a i r p o r t , c a u s i n g e c o n o m i c d a m a g e a n d g r e a t e m b a r r a s s m e n t t o t h e c o u n t r y ’ s p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s h i p . I n t h a t s e n s e t h e a t t a c k w a s a s u c c e s s , a l t h o u g h t h e m i l i t a n t s l i k e l y h o p e d f o r t h e s i e g e t o l a s t l o n g e r t h a n f i v e h o u r s .

B o t h t h e T T P a n d t h e I M U i s s u e d s t a t e m e n t s c l a i m i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k . T h e y w e r e n o t c o m p e t i n g c l a i m s — r a t h e r , i t w a s p r e s e n t e d a s a j o i n t o p e r a t i o n . 1 4 T h e I M U ’ s s t a t e m e n t o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y c o n t a i n e d p i c t u r e s o f 1 0 i n d i v i d u a l s c l a i m e d t o b e t h e a s s a u l t t e a m . 1 5 T h i s w a s s u p p o r t e d b y e y e w i t n e s s e s i n t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t w h o s t a t e d t h a t t h e a t t a c k e r s l o o k e d l i k e U z b e k s o r o t h e r C e n t r a l A s i a n s . 1 6

Who Was The Karachi Mastermind? T h e c l a i m t h a t t h e I M U p r o v i d e s m a n p o w e r f o r s u i c i d e a t t a c k s i n A f g h a n i s t a n a n d P a k i s t a n i s n o t n e w . M o r e i n t e r e s t i n g , h o w e v e r , i s t h e i d e n t i t y o f t h e m a s t e r m i n d b e h i n d t h e a t t a c k . I n i t i a l l y , s o m e P a k i s t a n i m e d i a c l a i m e d t h a t t h e m a s t e r m i n d w a s a n I M U m e m b e r w i t h t h e nom de guerre A b u A b d u r R e h m a n A l m a n i . 1 7 I f t r u e , i t

11 This view was also presented by the interior minister

in a press conference shortly after the attack. See “Seven

Bodies Recovered From Karachi Airport’s Cold-Storage

Facility,” Dawn, June 10, 2014.

12 “10 Pakistani Troops Killed in Gun Battle at Naval

Base,” CNN, May 23, 2011.

13 “Tax-Payers Kept in the Dark about Loss of Plane

Worth $250m,” The News International, February 9,

2013.

14 “Statement Regarding the Martyrdom Operation in

Karachi Airport”; “Assault on Pakistan Airport Signals

Taliban’s Reach and Resilience.”

15 “Statement Regarding the Martyrdom Operation in

Karachi Airport.”

16 “As it Happened: Karachi Airport Attack,” BBC, un-

dated.

17 “Karachi Airport Attack Mastermind Killed in N Wa-

w o u l d s i g n a l a d r a m a t i c e v o l u t i o n i n t h e I M U ’ s r o l e a n d i m p o r t a n c e i n P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a n c y . W h i l e t h e I M U i s k n o w n t o p r o v i d e m a n p o w e r a n d t r a i n i n g t o o p e r a t i o n s p l a n n e d b y o t h e r g r o u p s , t h e r e h a s s o f a r b e e n l i t t l e o p e n s o u r c e e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e y c o n t r i b u t e o n t h e l e v e l o f s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g .

T h e a l l e g a t i o n s a b o u t A l m a n i , h o w e v e r , c o u l d n o t b e i n d e p e n d e n t l y v e r i f i e d . T h e o n l y i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e c a s e c o m e s f r o m a n o n y m o u s s o u r c e s i n t h e P a k i s t a n A r m y , w h o s t a t e d t h a t A l m a n i w a s k i l l e d i n a n a i r r a i d a g a i n s t m i l i t a n t h i d e o u t s i n N o r t h W a z i r i s t a n A g e n c y o n J u n e 1 5 , 2 0 1 4 . 1 8 I t s h o u l d b e n o t e d t h a t t h e c l a i m a b o u t A l m a n i ’ s d e a t h c a m e i n t h e m i d s t o f a s t a t e - r u n p r o p a g a n d a c a m p a i g n t o g a t h e r p o p u l a r s u p p o r t f o r O p e r a t i o n Z a r b - e - A z b — a l o n g - a w a i t e d , b u t c o n t r o v e r s i a l m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n a g a i n s t m i l i t a n t h i d e o u t s i n N o r t h W a z i r i s t a n . T h e m e d i a a l s o c o u l d n o t a g r e e o n t h e e x a c t r o l e p l a y e d b y “ A l m a n i ” ( t h e n i c k n a m e s u g g e s t s h e i s o f G e r m a n o r i g i n ) — h e w a s v a r i a b l y d e s c r i b e d a s a “ k e y c o m m a n d e r , ” “ m a s t e r m i n d , ” o r “ e x p e r t o n i m p r o v i s e d e x p l o s i v e d e v i c e s . ” 1 9

T h e I M U h a s s o f a r n o t c o m m e n t e d o n t h e c l a i m . T h e o n l y i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e I M U k n o w n t o u s e t h e n i c k n a m e “ A b d u r R e h m a n ” a p p e a r e d i n a p r o p a g a n d a v i d e o a b o u t a j o i n t T T P - I M U a t t a c k o n B a n n u p r i s o n i n A p r i l 2 0 1 2 . 2 0 I f t h i s i s t h e s a m e i n d i v i d u a l w h o t h e P a k i s t a n A r m y c l a i m e d t o h a v e k i l l e d o n J u n e 1 5 , h e c a n h a r d l y b e d e s c r i b e d a s a “ m a s t e r m i n d . ” T h e i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e v i d e o p r e s e n t e d h i m s e l f a s a f o o t s o l d i e r a n d c a m e r a m a n i n t h e p r i s o n r a i d , a n d d i d n o t a p p e a r t o p o s s e s s a n y o f t h e s k i l l s n e c e s s a r y t o p l a n h i g h - p r o f i l e a t t a c k s o n b e h a l f o f t h e T T P . 2 1

ziristan: Sources,” Dawn, June 15, 2014.

18 The Pakistan Army’s official statement said that the

air raid had killed “foreign and local terrorists” who were

linked to the planning of the Karachi airport attack. See

ibid.; “Press Release No PR123/2014-ISPR,” Inter Ser-

vices Public Relations, June 15, 2014.

19 “Karachi Airport Attack Mastermind Killed in N Wa-

ziristan: Sources”; “Troops Chasing Panicked Militants

in Far and Wide of NW Agency,” Pakistan Observer, June

19, 2014.

20 “Operation Bannu-Jail,” Jundullah, May 2012.

21 In the video, Abdur Rehman claims that he was not

informed of the attack plan beforehand. When describ-

ing the attack, he made repeated references to his “com-

mander,” indicating that he himself played a subordinate

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

6

O t h e r s h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h a t A d n a n R a s h e e d , a f o r m e r P a k i s t a n i A i r F o r c e a i r m a n w h o w a s f r e e d i n t h e B a n n u p r i s o n b r e a k , w a s t h e m a s t e r m i n d o f t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k . 2 2 A f t e r R a s h e e d ’ s e s c a p e i n A p r i l 2 0 1 2 , t h e r e w e r e f e a r s t h a t h e w o u l d p l a n a t t a c k s f o r t h e T T P a g a i n s t P a k i s t a n i A i r F o r c e b a s e s a c r o s s t h e c o u n t r y . 2 3 T h e r e w e r e a t l e a s t t w o s u c h a t t a c k s a f t e r R a s h e e d ’ s e s c a p e — a g a i n s t t h e K a m r a A i r b a s e i n A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 a n d P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e i n D e c e m b e r t h e s a m e y e a r . M e d i a s p e c u l a t e d t h a t R a s h e e d w a s i n v o l v e d i n b o t h o f t h e s e a t t a c k s . 2 4 T h i s s e e m s t o b e b a s e d o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a s a f o r m e r a i r m a n , h e m u s t h a v e h a d i n s i d e r k n o w l e d g e o f P a k i s t a n i A i r F o r c e b a s e s . R a s h e e d m a y h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d w i t h a d v i c e t o o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s , b u t i t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e h o w o p e r a t i o n a l l y v a l u a b l e h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w o u l d b e a f t e r a n e i g h t - y e a r a b s e n c e f r o m t h e s e b a s e s . M o r e o v e r , t h e P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e a t t a c k i n 2 0 1 2 w a s a t a c t i c a l f a i l u r e — h a r d l y t e s t i m o n y t o R a s h e e d ’ s o p e r a t i o n a l g e n i u s , i f h e w a s a t a l l i n v o l v e d . 2 5

T h e r e i s r e a s o n t o t r e a t c l a i m s o f A d n a n R a s h e e d ’ s o p e r a t i o n a l r o l e i n t h e T T P a n d I M U w i t h s o m e s k e p t i c i s m . R a s h e e d w a s r a d i c a l i z e d w h i l e w o r k i n g a s a n a i r m a n i n t h e P a k i s t a n i A i r F o r c e i n t h e l a t e 1 9 9 0 s . H e w a s a r r e s t e d i n 2 0 0 3 d u e t o h i s i n v o l v e m e n t i n a n a s s a s s i n a t i o n a t t e m p t a g a i n s t G e n e r a l P e r v e z M u s h a r r a f . F r o m j a i l , h e l a r g e l y a c t e d a s a n a c t i v i s t a n d p r o p a g a n d i s t . 2 6 H e h a s c o n t i n u e d i n t h i s r o l e a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e , f o r e x a m p l e b y a u t h o r i n g a h i g h l y p u b l i c i z e d l e t t e r t o M a l a l a Y o u s a f z a i , t h e s c h o o l g i r l w h o w a s s h o t b y t h e T a l i b a n i n S w a t i n O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 . 2 7 H e d o e s n o t f i t t h e p r o f i l e o f a

role.

22 Amir Mir, “Khaki-Turned-Jihadi Adnan Rasheed

Masterminded Karachi Attack,” The News International,

June 11, 2014.

23 Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, “Pakistan’s New Most

Wanted: A Short Sketch of Adnan Rasheed,” Militant

Leadership Monitor 3:5 (2012).

24 “Chechen Militants Behind Peshawar Airport At-

tack,” Pakistan Today, December 26, 2012

25 The attack was a tactical failure because the militants

failed to breach the perimeter wall of the base, despite

having access to several suicide bombers and at least one

vehicle-borne improvised explosive device. See “Uzbek

Militants Behind Peshawar Airport Attack,” The Nation,

December 17, 2012.

26 Bukhari.

27 “Malala Yousufzai Attack: Taliban Commander Ad-

h i g h - l e v e l s t r a t e g i c p l a n n e r d u e t o h i s l a c k o f o p e r a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e , e x c e p t f o r w h a t h e m i g h t h a v e g a i n e d i n F A T A s i n c e h i s e s c a p e i n m i d - 2 0 1 2 .

O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , R a s h e e d f i t s p e r f e c t l y i n t o t h e T T P ’ s a n d t h e I M U ’ s s t r a t e g i c m e s s a g i n g c a m p a i g n s . T h e p l i g h t o f M u s l i m p r i s o n e r s i s a r e c u r r e n t t h e m e i n j i h a d i s t m i l i t a n t p r o p a g a n d a a n d f r e e i n g a r e l a t i v e l y w e l l - k n o w n f i g u r e l i k e A d n a n R a s h e e d f r o m j a i l m u s t b e s e e n a s a v i c t o r y . T h e I M U d i d n o t h e s i t a t e t o e x p l o i t t h i s f a c t i n t h e i r p r o p a g a n d a . I n t h e i r h i g h l y p u b l i c i z e d v i d e o a b o u t t h e B a n n u p r i s o n b r e a k , R a s h e e d s t a t e d t h a t h e s p e c i f i c a l l y r e q u e s t e d t h e I M U t o f r e e h i m . 2 8 Y e t t h e I M U ’ s r o l e i n t h e p r i s o n b r e a k s h o u l d n o t b e o v e r s t a t e d . T h e r e a r e c l e a r i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n w a s p l a n n e d a n d l a r g e l y e x e c u t e d b y l o c a l T a l i b a n m i l i t a n t s , n o t b y t h e I M U . E v e n t h e I M U ’ s o w n p r o p a g a n d a a c k n o w l e d g e s t h i s f a c t . 2 9

A d n a n R a s h e e d ’ s a p p o i n t m e n t i n F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 a s l e a d e r o f A n s a r a l - A s e e r , a T T P - I M U u n i t t a s k e d w i t h f r e e i n g m i l i t a n t s f r o m j a i l , s h o u l d b e v i e w e d i n t h e s a m e s t r a t e g i c m e s s a g i n g c o n t e x t . 3 0 W h i l e h e a p p e a r s t o b e t h e p e r f e c t p u b l i c f a c e f o r s u c h a u n i t , i t d o e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y m a k e h i m a n i m p o r t a n t s t r a t e g i c p l a n n e r .

T h e p l a n n e r o f t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k i s m o r e l i k e l y t o b e a p e r s o n u n k n o w n t o t h e p u b l i c — s o m e o n e w i t h e x t e n s i v e g u e r r i l l a w a r f a r e e x p e r i e n c e o r s o m e o n e w h o w o r k e d a s a s p e c i a l f o r c e s c o m m a n d o i n t h e p a s t . T h i s i s a c o m m o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f h i g h - r a n k i n g o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s w h o p r e v i o u s l y w o r k e d w i t h P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a n t s . I l y a s K a s h m i r i , w h o p r o b a b l y m a s t e r m i n d e d t h e M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e a t t a c k i n 2 0 1 1 , w a s a f o r m e r s p e c i a l f o r c e s c o m m a n d o t r a i n e d b y t h e P a k i s t a n A r m y . 3 1 Z a k i

nan Rasheed Regrets Assault On Pakistani Teen,” Huff-

ington Post, July 17, 2013.

28 “Operation Bannu-Jail.”

29 The IMU cameraman interviewed in the IMU’s video,

Abu Abdurahman, said that the operation was planned

by the ansar (supporters)—a common way for foreign

fighters to refer to local militants. See “Operation Bannu-

Jail.”

30 Bill Roggio, “Taliban, IMU Form Ansar al Aseer to

Free Jihadist Prisoners,” The Long War Journal, February

5, 2013.

31 Bill Roggio, “Ilyas Kashmiri was a Pakistani Army

u r - R e h m a n L a k h v i , t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c o m m a n d e r o f L a s h k a r - i - T a y y i b a ( L e T ) a n d t h e p u r p o r t e d m a s t e r m i n d b e h i n d t h e M u m b a i a t t a c k s i n 2 0 0 8 , h a d e x t e n s i v e g u e r r i l l a w a r f a r e e x p e r i e n c e d a t i n g b a c k t o t h e A f g h a n - S o v i e t w a r . 3 2

I t c a n n o t b e r u l e d o u t t h a t t h e I M U m i g h t h a v e s u c h c a n d i d a t e s a m o n g t h e i r r a n k s . T h e I M U i s k n o w n t o r e c r u i t p e o p l e f r o m R u s s i a a n d t h e f o r m e r S o v i e t U n i o n . 3 3 I t i s n o t u n t h i n k a b l e t h a t t h e i r e t h n i c a n d l i n g u i s t i c p r o f i l e m a y a t t r a c t p e o p l e w i t h a R u s s i a n / S o v i e t A r m y o r e v e n s p e c i a l f o r c e s b a c k g r o u n d , a s c l a i m e d b y s o m e m e d i a r e p o r t s . 3 4 T h e I M U ’ s m i l i t a r y c o m m a n d e r J u m a N a m a n g a n i , w h o w a s k i l l e d i n A f g h a n i s t a n i n 2 0 0 1 , w a s h i m s e l f a f o r m e r p a r a t r o o p e r i n t h e S o v i e t A r m y . 3 5 A n i n d i v i d u a l n a m e d E l d a r M a g o m e d o v , a r r e s t e d o n t e r r o r i s m c h a r g e s i n S p a i n i n 2 0 1 2 , w a s d e s c r i b e d a s a f o r m e r R u s s i a n s p e c i a l f o r c e s s o l d i e r w h o t r a v e l e d i n W a z i r i s t a n i n 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 1 . H e w a s l i n k e d t o a l - Q a ` i d a a n d t h e I s l a m i c J i h a d U n i o n , a n I M U o f f s h o o t . 3 6 I t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o c o n f i r m , h o w e v e r , w h e t h e r t h i s i s a w i d e s p r e a d p h e n o m e n o n . I f t h e I M U p o s s e s s e d s u c h a c r i t i c a l c a p a b i l i t y , t h e y w o u l d b e u n l i k e l y t o r e v e a l i t i n o f f i c i a l p r o p a g a n d a .

A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e I M U ’ s r o l e i n t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k s e e m s t o l e a v e m o r e q u e s t i o n s t h a n a n s w e r s , i n p a r t i c u l a r w i t h r e g a r d s t o t h e s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e I M U . I t i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y t o l o o k a t t h e I M U ’ s r o l e i n o t h e r h i g h - p r o f i l e a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n .

Commando,” The Long War Journal, September 20,

2009.

32 Wilson John, The Caliphate’s Soldiers: The Lashkar-e-

Tayyeba’s Long War (New Delhi: Amaryllis, 2011), p. 144.

33 See, for example, “The Islamic Movement of Uzbeki-

stan: The Martyrs of the Year 1431H,” Jamia Hafsa fo-

rum, December 25, 2010.

34 “Pakistan’s ‘Fanatical’ Uzbek Militants,” BBC, June

11, 2014.

35 Ahmed Rashid, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Cen-

tral Asia (New Haven: Yale Nota Bene, 2002), p. 138.

36 “3 Suspected Islamist Terrorists Arrested in France,”

CNN, March 1, 2013.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

7

The IMU’s Role in Previous Attacks in Pakistan T h e I M U m a y h a v e b e e n i n v o l v e d i n t h r e e k e y o p e r a t i o n s c l a i m e d b y t h e T T P d u r i n g t h e l a s t f i v e y e a r s : t h e a t t a c k o n M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e i n M a y 2 0 1 1 , M i n h a s A i r b a s e i n A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 a n d P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e i n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 . I n a l l t h r e e c a s e s , m e d i a s p e c u l a t e d t h a t “ U z b e k s ” o r o t h e r f o r e i g n e r s h a d b e e n i n v o l v e d i n t h e e x e c u t i o n o f t h e a t t a c k . 3 7 A c l o s e r e x a m i n a t i o n , h o w e v e r , s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e i s n o c l e a r p a t t e r n r e g a r d i n g t h e I M U ’ s i n v o l v e m e n t , e i t h e r o n a t a c t i c a l o r a s t r a t e g i c l e v e l .

T h e a t t a c k o n M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e ( P N S M e h r a n ) i n K a r a c h i o c c u r r e d o n M a y 2 2 , 2 0 1 1 . I t s t a r t e d i n t h e l a t e e v e n i n g , a n d l a s t e d f o r a r o u n d 1 6 h o u r s . F o u r a t t a c k e r s e n t e r e d t h e b a s e b y c l i m b i n g a p e r i m e t e r w a l l . T h e e n s u i n g g u n b a t t l e r e s u l t e d i n t h e d e a t h s o f 1 0 s o l d i e r s a n d t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f t w o P 3 - C O r i o n p a t r o l a i r c r a f t . 3 8 W h i l e s e v e r a l m i l i t a n t o u t f i t s w e r e b l a m e d , i t a p p e a r s , i n t h e e n d , t h a t i t w a s m a s t e r m i n d e d b y t h e n o t o r i o u s P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a n t I l y a s K a s h m i r i , w h o a t t h e t i m e w o r k e d w i t h a l - Q a ` i d a a n d t h e b a n n e d m i l i t a n t g r o u p H a r k a t - u l - J i h a d - a l - I s l a m ( H U J I ) . 3 9 A l - Q a ` i d a ’ s m e d i a a g e n c y a l - S a h a b l a t e r i s s u e d a v i d e o s h o w i n g t h e p e r p e t r a t o r s o f t h e a t t a c k . 4 0 T h e i r r e a l i d e n t i t i e s w e r e n e v e r r e v e a l e d b u t t h e y w e r e d e s c r i b e d a s f o r e i g n e r s o r U z b e k s b y m e d i a a n d e y e w i t n e s s e s . I t w a s l a t e r d i s c o v e r e d t h a t t h e T T P m a y h a v e p r o v i d e d t h e a t t a c k e r s w i t h a s a f e h o u s e i n K a r a c h i . 4 1

37 “TTP Using Uzbeks to Conduct Terrorist Attacks,”

The News International, December 18, 2012; “Chechen

Militants Behind Peshawar Airport Attack”; Jacob Zenn,

“The Growing Alliance Between Uzbek Extremists and

the Pakistani Taliban,” Terrorism Monitor 11:5 (2013).

38 “10 Pakistani Troops Killed in Gun Battle at Naval

Base,” CNN, May 23, 2011.

39 “Al-Qaeda Had Warned of Pakistan Strike,” Asia

Times Online, May 27, 2011.

40 “New Al-Qaeda Video Urges Rebellion In Pakistani

Army, Reiterates: Dr. Warren Weinstein Kidnapped to

Secure Release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui,” Middle East Me-

dia Research Institute, March 13, 2012. Some reports also

suggest that al-Qa`ida’s Saif al-Adl was involved in the

attack: “Pakistan: Involvement of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in

Mehran Naval Base Attack Suspected,” Karachi Ummat,

May 25, 2011.

41 “Woman Confesses to Involvement in Mehran Base

Attack,” Dawn, December 14, 2011; “Punjabi Taliban Be-

hind Major Attacks,” The News International, December

15, 2011.

O n A u g u s t 1 6 , 2 0 1 2 , n i n e m i l i t a n t s d r e s s e d a s a i r m e n a t t a c k e d t h e M i n h a s A i r b a s e a t K a m r a ( P A F K a m r a ) . T h e b a s e i s s i t u a t e d i n P u n j a b P r o v i n c e , s o m e 5 0 m i l e s w e s t o f I s l a m a b a d . T h e a t t a c k r e s u l t e d i n a t w o - h o u r g u n b a t t l e i n w h i c h t w o s e c u r i t y f o r c e m e m b e r s w e r e k i l l e d . 4 2 M o r e i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e a t t a c k e r s s u c c e e d e d i n d e s t r o y i n g a S a a b 2 0 0 0 a i r c r a f t w i t h A i r b o r n e W a r n i n g a n d C o n t r o l S y s t e m ( A W A C S ) c a p a b i l i t y . 4 3 R e p o r t s d i f f e r w i t h r e g a r d s t o t h e p e r p e t r a t o r s , b u t m o s t l o c a l m e d i a a s w e l l a s o f f i c i a l s o u r c e s s t a t e d t h e y w e r e P a k i s t a n i n a t i o n a l s , r a t h e r t h a n U z b e k s . 4 4 I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h e i n c i d e n t f o c u s e d o n a r r e s t i n g s u s p e c t s i n P u n j a b P r o v i n c e . 4 5

O n D e c e m b e r 1 5 , 2 0 1 2 , t h e r e w a s a n a t t e m p t t o a t t a c k P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e . A g r o u p o f m i l i t a n t s f i r e d r o c k e t s a t t h e a i r p o r t , w h i c h k i l l e d a t o t a l o f f i v e p e o p l e . T h e r e w a s a n a t t e m p t t o e x p l o d e a c a r b o m b , b u t t h i s a p p a r e n t l y f a i l e d . 4 6 T h e a t t a c k l a s t e d a r o u n d t h r e e h o u r s . 4 7 I n t h e m o r n i n g a f t e r t h e a t t a c k , p o l i c e c a r r i e d o u t a r a i d o n a n a p a r t m e n t i n P e s h a w a r t h a t r e s u l t e d i n t h e d e a t h s o f f i v e m o r e m i l i t a n t s w h o w e r e d e s c r i b e d a s p a r t o f t h e a t t a c k c e l l . 4 8 S e v e r a l s o u r c e s c l a i m e d t h a t t h e a t t a c k e r s w e r e R u s s i a n o r C e n t r a l A s i a n . 4 9 O n e s o u r c e s a i d t h a t a g r o u p l e d b y A b d u l S a m a d S h i s h a n i ( t h e n a m e i n d i c a t e d a C h e c h e n b a c k g r o u n d ) h a d c a r r i e d o u t t h e a t t a c k , p r e s u m a b l y o n b e h a l f

42 “10 Killed in Pakistani Air Base Attack,” CNN, Au-

gust 16, 2012; “Taliban Claim Attack on Minhas Base;

Nine Militants Killed,” Dawn, August 16, 2012.

43 “Tax-Payers Kept in the Dark about Loss of Plane

Worth $250m.”

44 “Pakistani Military Improve Security, Observers

Say,” Central Asia Online, August 29, 2012; “Kamra At-

tack: 3 Attackers Identified, PCNS Told,” Express Tri-

bune, September 7, 2012; “All Terrorists in Kamra Attack

Were Pakistanis: Malik,” The News International, August

19, 2012.

45 “Kamra Airbase Attack Suspects Picked Up,” Dawn,

September 26, 2012.

46 “Uzbek Militants Behind Peshawar Airport Attack,”

The Nation, December 17, 2012.

47 “5 Militants Wanted in Fatal Airport Attack Killed in

Pakistan Police Raid,” CNN, December 17, 2012.

48 “Assault on PAF Base Peshawar: Six of 10 Attackers

Were Foreigners, PA Told,” Dawn, December 18, 2012;

“Heretics Liable to be Slain, Says Note Found on Mili-

tant’s Body,” Dawn, December 18, 2012.

49 “Heretics Liable to be Slain, Says Note Found on Mili-

tant’s Body.”

o f t h e T T P . T h e a t t a c k w a s p o o r l y p l a n n e d a n d e x e c u t e d , c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e o t h e r a t t a c k s o u t l i n e d a b o v e . T h i s f i t s t h e t h e o r y t h a t t h e a s s a u l t t e a m w a s f r o m a b r e a k a w a y f a c t i o n a n d n o t f r o m t h e I M U p r o p e r . 5 0

I n s u m , t h e r e a r e f e w p a t t e r n s w i t h r e g a r d s t o t h e I M U ’ s a c t u a l i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e t h r e e a t t a c k s . T h e r e a r e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t U z b e k s o r o t h e r C e n t r a l A s i a n s w e r e i n d e e d p a r t o f t h e

a s s a u l t t e a m s i n t h e M e h r a n N a v a l B a s e a t t a c k a n d t h e P e s h a w a r A i r b a s e a t t a c k . I t i s u n c l e a r , h o w e v e r , w h e t h e r t h e s e m i l i t a n t s b e l o n g e d t o t h e I M U , f o u g h t u n d e r o t h e r C e n t r a l A s i a n c o m m a n d e r s , o r w e r e s i m p l y f r e e l a n c e r s . T h e I M U d i d n o t i s s u e a n y o f f i c i a l c l a i m s o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n a n y o f t h e t h r e e c a s e s .

T h e I M U h a v e c l a i m e d i n v o l v e m e n t i n o t h e r a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n . T h e i r m o s t p u b l i c i z e d c l a i m w a s t h e i r r o l e i n t h e a t t a c k o n B a n n u p r i s o n o n A p r i l 1 5 , 2 0 1 2 , i n w h i c h s e v e r a l h u n d r e d i n m a t e s w e r e f r e e d . A s n o t e d a b o v e , i t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e w h e t h e r t h e I M U p l a y e d a l e a d i n g r o l e i n t h e a t t a c k . I t w a s l i k e l y p l a n n e d b y m i l i t a n t s f r o m t h e M e h s u d f a c t i o n o f t h e T T P . 5 1 A n o t h e r a t t a c k o f t e n a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e I M U i s t h e a t t a c k o n t h e D e r a I s m a i l K h a n p r i s o n i n 2 0 1 3 . 5 2 T h e t w o p r i s o n b r e a k s h a d m a n y s i m i l a r i t i e s . B o t h a t t a c k s w e r e c a r r i e d o u t b y a l a r g e g r o u p o f f i g h t e r s ( m o r e t h a n 1 0 0 ) a n d s u c c e e d e d i n f r e e i n g

50 “Chechen Militants Behind Peshawar Airport At-

tack.”

51 Bill Roggio, “Pakistani Taliban Release Video of Ban-

nu Jailbreak,” The Long War Journal, May 17, 2012.

52 Sarah Khan, “Taliban’s Attack on D.I.Khan Prison

Was Not Possible Without Pakistan Army’s Conniv-

ance,” Let Us Build Pakistan blog, August 2, 2013.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“It does not appear that the IMU has become an essential strategic asset to the TTP. The IMU continues to have a small footprint outside its sanctuaries in FATA, and they are dependent on local networks to operate.”

8

h u n d r e d s o f p r i s o n e r s . T h e j a i l b r e a k s a p p e a r e d w e l l - p l a n n e d , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s h a d a c c e s s t o i n s i d e r i n f o r m a t i o n . T h e a s s a u l t g r o u p w a s d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l t e a m s , e a c h w i t h t h e i r s p e c i a l i z e d t a s k . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e I M U p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e a t t a c k s , p e r f o r m i n g o n e o r s e v e r a l s p e c i a l i z e d f u n c t i o n s . D u e t o t h e l a r g e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f l o c a l f i g h t e r s , h o w e v e r , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e y p l a y e d a n o v e r a l l p l a n n i n g o r c o o r d i n a t i n g r o l e .

Conclusion I t d o e s n o t a p p e a r t h a t t h e I M U h a s b e c o m e a n e s s e n t i a l s t r a t e g i c a s s e t t o t h e T T P . T h e I M U c o n t i n u e s t o h a v e a s m a l l f o o t p r i n t o u t s i d e i t s s a n c t u a r i e s i n F A T A , a n d t h e y a r e d e p e n d e n t o n l o c a l n e t w o r k s t o o p e r a t e . T h e I M U c o n t i n u e s t o b e a f r a g m e n t e d o r g a n i z a t i o n , o p e r a t i n g a s a l o o s e n e t w o r k o f c r i m i n a l s , u r b a n t e r r o r i s t c e l l s a n d r e l i g i o u s l y m o t i v a t e d i n s u r g e n t s . W h i l e t h e I M U h a s s o m e s t r a t e g i c v a l u e t o t h e T T P , i t w o u l d b e w r o n g t o v i e w t h e I M U a s a p o t e n t t h r e a t t o P a k i s t a n i n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y .

T h e I M U i n P a k i s t a n , h o w e v e r , s h o u l d n o t b e d i s m i s s e d . T h e I M U a r e v e h e m e n t l y o p p o s e d t o n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t . T h e y a r e w i l l i n g t o s u p p o r t g r o u p s i n P a k i s t a n w h o d o n o t f o l l o w “ m a i n s t r e a m ” m i l i t a n c y , s u c h a s t h e T T P o r o t h e r b r e a k a w a y f a c t i o n s . I n s p i t e o f b e i n g h e a v i l y t a r g e t e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s , t h e I M U h a s t h e p o t e n t i a l t o r e - e m e r g e i n t h e r e g i o n a f t e r N A T O w i t h d r a w s f r o m A f g h a n i s t a n i n 2 0 1 4 . M o r e o v e r , t h e K a r a c h i a i r p o r t a t t a c k d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e I M U h a s t h e p o t e n t i a l t o a c t a s a s p o i l e r i n f u t u r e p e a c e p r o c e s s e s i n P a k i s t a n .

A n n e S t e n e r s e n , P h . D . , i s a R e s e a r c h F e l l o w a t t h e N o r w e g i a n D e f e n c e R e s e a r c h E s t a b l i s h m e n t ( F F I ) i n N o r w a y .

Swiss Foreign Fighters Active in Syria

By Daniel Glaus and Lorenzo Vidino

switzerland has traditionally e x p e r i e n c e d l i t t l e d o m e s t i c j i h a d i s t a c t i v i t y . U n l i k e o t h e r W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s , n o s u c c e s s f u l t e r r o r i s t a t t a c k o f j i h a d i s t i n s p i r a t i o n h a s b e e n p e r p e t r a t e d o n i t s t e r r i t o r y a n d t h e r e i s n o p u b l i c l y a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n i n d i c a t i n g t h a t c o n c r e t e p l a n s f o r a n a t t a c k i n S w i t z e r l a n d w e r e e v e r m a d e . 1 L e s s t h a n a d o z e n i n d i v i d u a l s h a v e b e e n t r i e d f o r t e r r o r i s m - r e l a t e d c r i m e s , a l l o f t h e m i n v o l v i n g n o n - v i o l e n t a c t i v i t i e s o f m a t e r i a l s u p p o r t a n d p r o p a g a n d a . T h e n u m b e r o f S w i s s r e s i d e n t s w h o h a v e t r a v e l e d a b r o a d t o j o i n j i h a d i s t g r o u p s i s a l s o e s t i m a t e d t o b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y l o w e r t h a n i n o t h e r E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s .

Y e t S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s a r e n o t c o m p l a c e n t , a n d t h e y a r g u e t h a t “ S w i t z e r l a n d i s n o t a n i s l a n d . ” 2 C o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m o f f i c i a l s h a v e c o n s i s t e n t l y w a r n e d t h a t t h e r e i s a m p l e e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t i n g t h a t s o m e o f t h e s a m e r a d i c a l i z a t i o n t r e n d s t h a t h a v e l o n g c h a r a c t e r i z e d o t h e r W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s a l s o e x i s t i n S w i t z e r l a n d , a l b e i t o n a s m a l l e r s c a l e . R e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s , f o r e x a m p l e , i n d i c a t e t h a t a s m a l l c o n t i n g e n t o f S w i s s c i t i z e n s a n d r e s i d e n t s h a v e t r a v e l e d t o S y r i a t o j o i n v a r i o u s m i l i t a n t g r o u p s .

T h i s a r t i c l e f i r s t p r o v i d e s a g e n e r a l o v e r v i e w o f t h e j i h a d i s t s c e n e i n S w i t z e r l a n d . I t t h e n a n a l y z e s a n u m b e r o f k n o w n c a s e s o f S w i s s - b a s e d i n d i v i d u a l s w h o h a v e f o u g h t i n S y r i a . T h e a r t i c l e f i n d s t h a t , a s a u t h o r i t i e s h a v e l o n g c l a i m e d , a c o m p a r a t i v e l y s m a l l b u t , b y S w i s s s t a n d a r d s , a l a r m i n g l y l a r g e n u m b e r o f c i t i z e n s a n d r e s i d e n t s h a v e r e c e n t l y t r a v e l e d t o S y r i a . T h e s e s u b j e c t s a p p e a r t o b e m o s t l y “ h o m e g r o w n , ” w i t h a s i z e a b l e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e m t r a c i n g t h e i r r o o t s t o t h e B a l k a n s . I t i s d e b a t a b l e w h e t h e r

1 Potentially the only exception could be the plans dis-

cussed by a cluster of Swiss-based North African mili-

tants to attack Israeli El Al aircraft at Zurich airport in

2005. The militants reportedly conducted surveillance of

the airport, but it is debatable whether their preliminary

activities could be qualified as a plot.

2 Christiane Imsand, “La Suisse n’Est pas une Ile,” Le

Nouvelliste, June 22, 2012.

S w i t z e r l a n d p o s s e s s e s a n a d e q u a t e l e g a l f r a m e w o r k t o m i t i g a t e t h i s t h r e a t .

A Small, Underdeveloped Scene T h r o u g h o u t t h e 1 9 9 0 s , s m a l l n e t w o r k s o f m o s t l y N o r t h A f r i c a n m i l i t a n t s u s e d S w i s s t e r r i t o r y t o r a i s e f u n d s , s p r e a d p r o p a g a n d a a n d p r o v i d e o t h e r s u p p o r t a c t i v i t i e s t o o r g a n i z a t i o n s o p e r a t i n g o u t s i d e o f E u r o p e . 3 T h e l a r g e l y l a i s s e z - f a i r e a t t i t u d e o f S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s ( a n a p p r o a c h , i t s h o u l d b e n o t e d , n o t d i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f m o s t E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s a t t h e t i m e ) a n d c o n v e n i e n t g e o g r a p h i c p o s i t i o n a t t h e h e a r t o f E u r o p e m a d e t h e c o u n t r y a n i d e a l p e r m a n e n t o r t e m p o r a r y l o c a t i o n f o r j i h a d i s t s .

T h e a t t a c k s o f S e p t e m b e r 1 1 , 2 0 0 1 , c h a n g e d t h e S w i s s g o v e r n m e n t ’ s a p p r o a c h t o w a r d j i h a d i s t n e t w o r k s . W h i l e s t i l l c o r r e c t l y a s s e s s i n g t h a t S w i t z e r l a n d w a s n o t a l i k e l y t a r g e t f o r a t t a c k s a n d d i d n o t h a v e a l a r g e j i h a d i s t p r e s e n c e , a u t h o r i t i e s b e g a n t o m o n i t o r j i h a d i s t a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e c o u n t r y m o r e c l o s e l y a n d , i n s o m e c a s e s , t o o k a c t i o n . 4 Y e t t h r o u g h o u t t h e m i d - 2 0 0 0 s , S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s e x p e r i e n c e d d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h s u c c e s s f u l l y b r i n g i n g t e r r o r i s m c h a r g e s a g a i n s t m e m b e r s o f n e t w o r k s t h e y s u s p e c t e d t o b e f u n d i n g v a r i o u s t e r r o r i s t g r o u p s t h r o u g h p e t t y c r i m e . 5 G i v e n t h e c h a l l e n g e o f b r i n g i n g c h a r g e s a g a i n s t t h e m f o r a n y t e r r o r i s m - r e l a t e d o f f e n s e , S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s o f t e n o p t e d t o c h a r g e t h e m w i t h r e g u l a r c r i m i n a l o f f e n s e s o r , m o r e f r e q u e n t l y , d e p o r t e d t h e m . 6

3 “DAP Annual Report,” Swiss Service for Analysis and

Prevention, 2002, p. 38.

4 Ibid.

5 The first such case was the so-called “affaire Saoud,”

an operation triggered by the discovery that various

Swiss phone numbers had been in possession of one of

the masterminds of the May 12, 2003, bombings in Ri-

yadh, Saudi Arabia. Swiss authorities subsequently

uncovered a sophisticated document-forging network

led by a Biel-based Yemeni businessman that smuggled

into Switzerland illegal immigrants including, it was sus-

pected, terrorists. Yet the terrorism charges against the

network largely fell apart in court, and the members of

the network were only convicted for minor illegal immi-

gration violations. See “Summary of Legal Proceedings,”

Dossier SK.2006.15, Federal Criminal Tribunal, Bellin-

zona, 2006.

6 That was the case, for example, with a network of

North African militants involved in theft to fund the

Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) and

suspected of potentially planning to blow up an El Al

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

9

T h e o n l y e x c e p t i o n i s t h e c o n v i c t i o n o f M o e z G a r s a l l a o u i a n d M a l i k a e l - A r o u d i n 2 0 0 7 . 7 G a r s a l l a o u i w a s a T u n i s i a n - b o r n m e m b e r o f H i z b a l - T a h r i r w h o r e c e i v e d a s y l u m i n S w i t z e r l a n d i n 1 9 9 7 . H e m e t e l - A r o u d , t h e w i d o w o f

A b d e s s a t a r D a h m a n e — t h e a l - Q a ` i d a m i l i t a n t w h o k i l l e d A f g h a n N o r t h e r n A l l i a n c e l e a d e r A h m a d S h a h M a s s o u d t w o d a y s b e f o r e t h e S e p t e m b e r 1 1 , 2 0 0 1 , a t t a c k s — i n a c h a t r o o m . 8 A f t e r g e t t i n g m a r r i e d , t h e t w o b e g a n r u n n i n g v a r i o u s j i h a d i s t w e b s i t e s o u t o f a n a p a r t m e n t n e a r F r i b o u r g . 9 O p e r a t i n g i n a n e r a

airliner in Zurich. See Sebastian Rotella, “Theft, Fraud

in Europe Fund Terrorist Group, Police Say,” Los Angeles

Times, April 1, 2007; Sylvain Besson, “Cellule Terroriste

en Suisse: Le Parcours d’un Delinquant Devenu Islamiste

Radical,” Le Temps, July 3, 2006; “DAP Annual Report,”

Swiss Service for Analysis and Prevention, 2007, p. 16;

“Swiss Deport Last Suspect Held in Plot to Blow up Is-

raeli Airliner,” Associated Press, July 16, 2007.

7 The couple did not serve time in Switzerland and

moved to Belgium, where they were soon charged with

recruiting local young Muslims to travel to Pakistan.

In the subsequent trial, a Belgian court sentenced both

el-Aroud and Garsallaoui to eight years for recruiting

for al-Qa`ida, although the latter only in absentia as he

had managed to flee the country before Belgian authori-

ties could swoop in. Garsallaoui continued his activities

from the tribal areas of Pakistan. In 2008, he published

an open letter inviting Swiss people, government and se-

curity forces to convert to Islam, and threatening revenge

against them. He also became involved in Jund al-Khilafa

and other jihadist groups operating in the Pakistani tribal

areas, providing training in various weapons, bombmak-

ing, document forging and use of the internet. Thanks to

his skills, Garsallaoui became one of the top trainers and

handlers for recruits coming from the West and particu-

larly from the French-speaking world. According to var-

ious French media reports, Mohammed Merah had been

one of his recruits. Garsallaoui was killed in a U.S. drone

strike in October 2012.

8 “L’Islamiste Refugie a Fribourg Tue par un Drone au

Pakistan,” Le Temps, October 18, 2012.

9 “Summary of Legal Proceedings,” Dossier SK.2007.4,

Federal Criminal Tribunal, Bellinzona, 2006.

i n w h i c h o n l i n e s o c i a l n e t w o r k s w e r e i n t h e i r i n f a n c y , t h e i r s i t e s p l a y e d a c r u c i a l r o l e i n c o n n e c t i n g l i k e - m i n d e d F r e n c h - s p e a k i n g i n d i v i d u a l s , s p a w n i n g a n i n f o r m a l c o m m u n i t y o f m i l i t a n t s t h a t h a s o p e r a t i o n a l i m p l i c a t i o n s t o d a y , a l m o s t 1 0 y e a r s a f t e r t h e p a i r ’ s d e m i s e . 1 0

B y t h e l a t e 2 0 0 0 s , S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s b e g a n t o o b s e r v e t h a t a n i n c r e a s i n g n u m b e r o f t e r r o r i s m - r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s i n v o l v e d i n d i v i d u a l s w h o w e r e e i t h e r b o r n o r a t l e a s t h a d g r o w n u p i n t h e c o u n t r y , r e p l i c a t i n g t h e h o m e g r o w n d y n a m i c s e e n t h r o u g h o u t E u r o p e . T h i s p h e n o m e n o n g a i n e d t h e a t t e n t i o n o f t h e S w i s s p u b l i c w i t h t h e c a s e o f M a j d N . , a 1 9 - y e a r - o l d h i g h s c h o o l s t u d e n t f r o m B i e l w h o w a s a r r e s t e d i n M a y 2 0 1 2 i n K e n y a a n d a c c u s e d o f h a v i n g f o u g h t w i t h t h e a l - Q a ` i d a - l i n k e d a l - S h a b a b . 1 1

T h e c a s e r e i n f o r c e d t h e a r g u m e n t l o n g m a d e b y S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s t h a t S w i t z e r l a n d i s “ n o t a n i s l a n d , ” b u t r a t h e r e x p e r i e n c e s r a d i c a l i z a t i o n d y n a m i c s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s , j u s t o n a s i g n i f i c a n t l y l o w e r s c a l e . 1 2 S t r u c t u r e d

10 Several individuals who met through the sites created

by el-Aroud and Garsallaoui have been involved in ter-

rorist activities during the last 10 years. In several cases,

their mobilization took place through connections first

made on said sites. For an Italian example, see Lorenzo

Vidino, Home-Grown Jihadism in Italy: Birth, Development

and Radicalization Dynamics (Milan: Istituto per gli studi

di politica internazionale, 2014), p. 52. For connections in

the French-speaking world, see Sylvain Besson, “Fin de

Parcours pour Garsalloui, ex-Refugie en Suisse Tue par

un Drone,” Le Temps, October 18, 2012; Benjamin Ducol,

“Uncovering the French-speaking Jihadisphere: An Ex-

ploratory Analysis,” Media, War & Conflict 5:1 (2012).

11 Daniel Glaus and Marie Maurisse, “La Descente aux

Enfers de Majd N., le Biennois Apprenti Terroriste,” Le

Matin Dimanche, November 18, 2012; Daniel Glaus and

Marie Maurisse, “Le Dangereux Voyage de Majd pour

Devenir Combattant Islamiste,” Le Matin Dimanche, No-

vember 25, 2012; Quand Al Qaida Recrute en Suisse, RTS,

November 8, 2012; Samuel Jaberg, “Un aller sans Retour

pour la Guerre Sainte,” Swissinfo, July 4, 2012; “Un Gym-

nasien de Bienne Inculpe pour Liens avec les Shebab,” Le

Temps, March 25, 2004; “Abu Sa’ad al-Urduni or the Im-

probable Matches - Episode II,” Geneva Centre for Train-

ing and Analysis of Terrorism, December 5, 2011.

12 As in any other Western European country, radi-

calization by jihadist inspiration seems to affect only

a statistically marginal segment of the Swiss Muslim

population. But radicalization in Switzerland appears to

be a limited phenomenon also when compared to other

European countries. Four factors can explain this differ-

g r o u p s a n d r e c r u i t e r s w i t h r o o t s i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t ( K u r d i s h A n s a r a l - I s l a m , 1 3 T u r k i s h H i z b A l l a h 1 4 ) , E a s t A f r i c a ( a l - S h a b a b ) a n d N o r t h A f r i c a h a v e a p r e s e n c e i n t h e c o u n t r y . C l u s t e r s o f h o m e g r o w n a c t i v i s t s s y m p a t h i z i n g w i t h j i h a d i s t o r m i l i t a n t S a l a f i s t i d e o l o g y a r e a c t i v e i n S w i t z e r l a n d , o f t e n o r g a n i z i n g e v e n t s t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y a n d f r e q u e n t i n g o n l i n e j i h a d i s t f o r u m s a n d s o c i a l m e d i a . 1 5

D e s p i t e t h e s e a c t i o n s , t h e n u m b e r o f S w i s s - b a s e d j i h a d i s t s y m p a t h i z e r s a n d t h e i n t e n s i t y o f t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n i n m o s t W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e w i t h a c o m p a r a b l y s i z e d p o p u l a t i o n . T h e S w i s s “ m i n i - s c e n e ” i s a l s o s p l i t a l o n g l i n g u i s t i c l i n e s , a s F r e n c h - a n d G e r m a n - s p e a k i n g m i l i t a n t s d o n o t s e e m t o f r e q u e n t l y i n t e r a c t w i t h o n e a n o t h e r . 1 6 R a t h e r , e a c h m i l i e u d r a w s i n s p i r a t i o n f r o m t h e m o r e d e v e l o p e d s c e n e s i n F r a n c e a n d G e r m a n y . S w i s s - b a s e d a c t i v i s t s s e e k i n g t o d e v e l o p t h e i r i n t e l l e c t u a l o r o p e r a t i o n a l i n v o l v e m e n t , i n f a c t , o f t e n t r a v e l t o o t h e r c o u n t r i e s o r i n v i t e f o r e i g n p e r s o n a l i t i e s t o S w i t z e r l a n d . T h e r a d i c a l i z i n g e l e m e n t s f r o m t h e

ence: 1) lack of an “infecting cluster”: Switzerland never

hosted an openly jihadist mosque or high profile jihad-

ists, elements that in other countries have been crucial in

spreading jihadist ideology; 2) good degree of social, eco-

nomic and cultural integration of most Muslims living in

Switzerland, rendering them more resilient to extremist

narratives; 3) demographic characteristics of the Swiss

Muslim population: some 80% to 90% of Swiss Muslims

trace their origins to the Balkans or Turkey, where the

vast majority of Muslims traditionally espouse forms of

Islam that are more tolerant and apolitical; 4) Switzer-

land’s foreign policy, whose largely neutral stance does

not provide a source of grievances. While these concur-

rently operating factors can potentially explain the low

levels of jihadist radicalization in Switzerland, none of

them is a guarantee. Each, in fact, presents weaknesses

and exceptions.

13 “DAP Annual Report,” Swiss Service for Analysis and

Prevention, 2005, p. 31; “DAP Annual Report,” Swiss

Service for Analysis and Prevention, 2006, p. 31.

14 Martin Stoll, “Geheimdienst observiert Basler Mo-

schee,” Sonntagszeitung, September 2, 2012.

15 Lorenzo Vidino, Jihadist Radicalization in Switzerland

(Zurich: Center for Security Studies, 2013).

16 These details are based on the monitoring of online

social media activities of Swiss Salafists carried out by

both authors independently since June 2012. This analy-

sis has been confirmed by interviews with officials in the

Swiss Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) and the Swiss

Federal Police.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“In May 2014, the Swiss intelligence agency publicly stated that it believes that up to 15 Swiss residents have gone to Syria to fight, although it could only confirm five cases.”

10

B a l k a n s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y i n f l u e n t i a l — a n a r e a t o w h i c h s o m e 6 0 % o f S w i s s M u s l i m s t r a c e t h e i r r o o t s . 1 7

Swiss Foreign Fighters in Syria I n M a y 2 0 1 4 , t h e S w i s s i n t e l l i g e n c e a g e n c y N a c h r i c h t e n d i e n s t d e s B u n d e s ( F e d e r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e S e r v i c e , N D B ) p u b l i c l y s t a t e d t h a t i t b e l i e v e d t h a t u p t o 1 5 S w i s s r e s i d e n t s h a v e g o n e t o f i g h t i n S y r i a , a l t h o u g h i t c o u l d o n l y c o n f i r m f i v e c a s e s . O f t h o s e f i v e , s t a t e d N D B D i r e c t o r M a r k u s S e i l e r , o n e h a s r e t u r n e d a n d t w o h a v e d i e d . 1 8 T h e s e n u m b e r s a r e s m a l l e r t h a n f o r m o s t E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s , e v e n i n r e l a t i v e t e r m s . Y e t t h e y c o n s t i t u t e a d i s t u r b i n g t r e n d f o r S w i t z e r l a n d , a s t h e y a r e h i g h e r t h a n a n y c o m p a r a b l e m o b i l i z a t i o n t h e c o u n t r y h a s w i t n e s s e d i n t h e p a s t .

O n e o f t h e c o n f i r m e d c a s e s i s t h a t o f M a t h i e u , a 2 9 - y e a r - o l d c o n v e r t f r o m a p r o m i n e n t C a t h o l i c f a m i l y f r o m L a u s a n n e . I n h i s e a r l y 2 0 s , M a t h i e u w o r k e d o d d j o b s a n d d e v e l o p e d a k e e n i n t e r e s t i n p a r a g l i d i n g . I n 2 0 1 2 , h e u n s u c c e s s f u l l y r a n f o r e l e c t i o n s i n t h e s m a l l m u n i c i p a l i t y i n t h e V a l a i s c a n t o n w h e r e h e l i v e d i n a s m a l l c h a l e t . 1 9 I n M a y 2 0 1 3 , h e c o n v e r t e d t o I s l a m a t a l o c a l m o s q u e , a n d b y e a r l y f a l l h e w a s c h a t t i n g v i a F a c e b o o k w i t h i n d i v i d u a l s a p p a r e n t l y b e l o n g i n g t o a r m e d I s l a m i s t g r o u p s i n S y r i a .

I n l i g h t n i n g s p e e d e v o l u t i o n f r o m n e w c o n v e r t t o a s p i r i n g j i h a d i s t , b y e a r l y D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 3 M a t h i e u t o l d F a c e b o o k c o n t a c t s t h a t h e w a s p l a n n i n g t o s o o n l e a v e f o r S y r i a . 2 0 H e w e n t t o n e i g h b o r i n g F r a n c e a n d t o o k a t e s t t o p i l o t U l t r a - L i g h t M o t o r i z e d A i r p l a n e s ( U L M ) o n D e c e m b e r 1 8 . 2 1 O n t h e s a m e

17 Dialogue avec la Population Musulmane 2010 (Bern:

Federal Department of Justice and Police, 2011), p. 29.

18 “NDB Annual Press Conference,” Swiss Federal Intel-

ligence Service, May 15, 2014.

19 Daniel Glaus and Alexandre Haederli, “Vom Chalet in

den Jihad,” SonntagsZeitung, April 6, 2014.

20 Ibid. The authors were able to save most of Mathieu’s

Facebook interactions before he erased the more incrimi-

nating content. One former Facebook friend confirmed

Mathieu mentioned “fighting in Syria.”

21 Ibid. Mathieu wrote his parents: “I took my ULM

exam in Lyon on Wednesday and it went well” (“Je me

suis rendu à mon examen ULM à Lyon mercredi, qui s’est bien

passé”). Pictures published on his Facebook page indicate

he trained on a Zodiac 650-type ULM with a maximum

speed of 260 km/h. There are no indications that his

training with ULM was related to his militant interests.

d a y h e o b t a i n e d h i s l i c e n s e , h e p o s t e d a m e s s a g e s a y i n g : “ I f a l l t h i n g s a r e d e s t r o y e d … t h e r e s t i l l i s T h e C r e a t o r o f a l l t h i n g s . W e d o n o t n e e d a n y t h i n g e l s e b u t A l l a h , h e i s o u r b e s t g u a r a n t o r . ” 2 2 D a y s l a t e r , h e l e f t F r a n c e f o r T u r k e y

w i t h t w o f e l l o w a s p i r i n g j i h a d i s t s , o n e o f w h o m w a s a 1 7 - y e a r - o l d F r e n c h c i t i z e n o f N o r t h A f r i c a n d e s c e n t w h o s e s m a r t p h o n e w a s t r a c k e d t o T u r k e y . 2 3 O n D e c e m b e r 2 1 , h e w r o t e h i s p a r e n t s a n e - m a i l w i t h t h e t e l l i n g s u b j e c t l i n e “ N e w l i f e . H a r d n e w s f o r y o u . T e r r i b l y s o r r y . ” 2 4 I n t h e e - m a i l , h e s t a t e d t h a t “ i n o r d e r t o b e s t f o l l o w A l l a h ’ s p a t h , I h a v e d e c i d e d , b e c a u s e I f e e l a b l e t o b o t h p h y s i c a l l y … a n d m e n t a l l y ( e v e n t h o u g h I k n o w i t w o n ’ t b e e a s y a l w a y s ) , t o l e a v e t o a c c o m p l i s h t h e j i h a d i n S y r i a . ” 2 5

22 Ibid. The original reads: “Si toute chose et détruite…Il

reste Le Créateur de toute chose. Allah nous suffit il est notre

meilleure garant.” The post was accompanied by a pic-

ture showing a bearded and apparently screaming man

standing in front of a heavily destroyed and burning

house stretching his arms to the sky.

23 Ibid. On December 21, 2013, Mathieu wrote his par-

ents that he had parked his vehicle by Lyon’s airport,

where they could pick it up. He also wrote: “I am about to

return to Syria, traveling with two French brothers and

others who arrived last night. I have many contacts with

French jihadists who are already in Syria and who will

facilitate our arrival!” (“Je suis actuellement sur le point de

rentrer en Syrie, voyageant donc avec deux frères français, et

d’autres arrivés hier soir. J’ai beaucoup de contacts avec des

djihadistes français déjà en Syrie, qui nous faciliteront notre

arrivée”). See also: “Jihad en Syrie: l’inquétante dispari-

tion de Brahim, 17 ans,” Le Parisien, January 18, 2014.

24 Ibid. The subject line in French read: “Nouvelle vie.

Dure nouvelle pour vous. Milles excuses.”

25 Original text: “De plus, toujours pour suivre au mieux le

chemin d’Allah, j’ai décidé, car je m’en estime capable, tant

physiquement [ma hanche va vraiment mieux !] que mentale-

A f t e r n e a r l y t h r e e m o n t h s o f s i l e n c e , M a t h i e u r e s u r f a c e d o n l i n e o n M a r c h 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 . 2 6 B a c k i n S w i t z e r l a n d , h e g a v e a n a n o n y m o u s i n t e r v i e w t o S w i s s n a t i o n a l t e l e v i s i o n s t a t i o n R T S i n w h i c h h e c l a i m e d t o r e g r e t h i s d e c i s i o n t o t r a v e l t o S y r i a . 2 7 “ A t t h e t i m e , f o r m e i t w a s a l e g i t i m a t e j i h a d , t o f i g h t a g a i n s t t h e r e g i m e o f B a s h a r w h o u s e d c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s t o m a s s a c r e h i s p e o p l e , ” h e e x p l a i n e d . H e r e c o u n t e d h o w h e l o d g e d i n a h o u s e w i t h “ 8 0 t o 1 5 0 j i h a d i s t s ” i n w h i c h “ t h e u p p e r f l o o r w a s f o r t h e f u t u r e f i g h t e r s , t h e g r o u n d f l o o r f o r t h o s e w h o w i s h e d t o b l o w t h e m s e l v e s u p . T h e y w e r e a b o u t 1 5 , d i d n o t g e t m i l i t a r y t r a i n i n g a n d w e r e t r e a t e d b e t t e r . ” 2 8 M a t h i e u d i d n o t s p e c i f y w h i c h g r o u p r a n t h e h o u s e a n d c l a i m e d n o t t o b e i n v o l v e d i n a n y f i g h t i n g . A n i n v e s t i g a t i o n o n M a t h i e u h a s r e p o r t e d l y b e e n o p e n e d , b u t n o c h a r g e s h a v e y e t b e e n f i l e d a g a i n s t h i m . 2 9 H e a p p e a r s t o b e c o n t i n u i n g h i s p a r a g l i d i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e A l p s . 3 0

A b l o o d y i n c i d e n t o n M a r c h 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 , b r o u g h t t o l i g h t t h e c a s e o f a n o t h e r j i h a d i s t f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a w i t h S w i s s l i n k s . T h r e e i n d i v i d u a l s l i n k e d t o t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) 3 1 r e s p o n d e d t o a r o u t i n e s e c u r i t y c h e c k b y T u r k i s h a u t h o r i t i e s n e a r t h e H a t a y b o r d e r c r o s s i n g b y o p e n i n g f i r e a n d t h r o w i n g a h a n d g r e n a d e , k i l l i n g a p o l i c e m a n , a n o n - c o m m i s s i o n e d g e n d a r m e r i e o f f i c e r a n d a t r u c k d r i v e r . 3 2 O n e o f t h e t h r e e a t t a c k e r s w h o h a d c r o s s e d f r o m S y r i a a n d w a s h e a d i n g t o I s t a n b u l w a s C e n d r i m , a n a t i v e o f K o s o v o w h o h a d m o v e d a t t h e a g e o f

ment (bien que je sais que ce ne sera pas facile tous les jours !),

de partir pour accomplir le Jihad en Syrie.”

26 Glaus and Haederli.

27 There are indications that he crossed the border in

Akçakale and was stopped by Turkish authorities. It

does not appear that he was expelled from Turkey, but

that he returned to Switzerland voluntarily.

28 19.30 le Journal, Radio Television Suisse Romande,

April 4, 2014.

29 E-Mail Statement by Spokesperson of the Office of the

Attorney General (OAG), April 2, 2014.

30 These pictures were posted on his Facebook page.

Apparently he moved from his chalet in Lower Valais

back to his parents’ address in Lausanne. The website of

his paragliding instruction company is still online.

31 In June 2014, the ISIL shortened its name to the “Is-

lamic State.” This article, however, still refers to the

group by its more common name, the ISIL.

32 “Syria Back on Turkey’s Agenda,” al-Monitor, March

21, 2014.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“Clusters of homegrown activists sympathizing with jihadist or militant Salafist ideology are active in Switzerland, often organizing events throughout the country and frequenting online jihadist forums and social media.”

11

s e v e n t o B r u g g , i n c a n t o n A a r g a u . 3 3 F r o m a y o u n g a g e , C e n d r i m e n g a g e d i n v a r i o u s c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g a r m e d r o b b e r y a n d a s s a u l t . I n 2 0 1 1 , h e w a s i m p r i s o n e d f o r 2 4 m o n t h s a n d , u p o n r e l e a s e , d e p o r t e d t o K o s o v o . 3 4 S o m e r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e t h a t C e n d r i m ’ s r a d i c a l i z a t i o n m i g h t h a v e b e g u n d u r i n g h i s i n c a r c e r a t i o n . 3 5 I n J u n e 2 0 1 3 , s h o r t l y a f t e r h i s d e p o r t a t i o n t o K o s o v o , h e t r a v e l e d t o S y r i a , w h e r e h e r e p o r t e d l y j o i n e d t h e I S I L . 3 6

A n o t h e r S w i s s - b a s e d i n d i v i d u a l w h o a p p a r e n t l y j o i n e d t h e I S I L i n S y r i a i s V a l d e s , a 3 3 - y e a r - o l d f r o m t h e t o w n o f K r i e n s , n e a r L u z e r n . 3 7 V a l d e s m a r r i e d i n t o a f a m i l y t h a t p l a y s a c e n t r a l r o l e i n t h e B o s n i a n I s l a m i s t n e t w o r k s i n S w i t z e r l a n d . H i s w i f e i s a n a c t i v i s t f o r v a r i o u s I s l a m i s t c a u s e s , a n d h i s f a t h e r - i n - l a w i s w e l l - k n o w n f o r h i s c o n n e c t i o n s t o m i l i t a n t s i n B o s n i a . 3 8 U n t i l A p r i l 2 0 1 4 , V a l d e s w a s h i g h l y a c t i v e o n F a c e b o o k , p o s t i n g p i c t u r e s a p p a r e n t l y f r o m S y r i a b e f o r e d e l e t i n g h i s p r o f i l e .

A s i x - m o n t h - l o n g m o n i t o r i n g o f t h e o n l i n e j i h a d i s t s y m p a t h i z e r s c e n e i n S w i t z e r l a n d c a r r i e d o u t b y S w i s s w e e k l i e s S o n n t a g s Z e i t u n g a n d L e M a t i n D i m a n c h e r e v e a l e d t h e e x i s t e n c e o f o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l s a p p a r e n t l y f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a w h o s e e m t o b e S w i s s c i t i z e n s o r r e s i d e n t s , b u t w h o s e r e a l i d e n t i t i e s c a n n o t b e f u l l y v e r i f i e d . M a n y o f t h e m a p p e a r t o h a v e a n A l b a n i a n o r B o s n i a n b a c k g r o u n d . S e v e r a l o f t h e a p p a r e n t S w i s s j i h a d i s t s u s e t h e i r h o m e c o u n t r y a s p a r t o f t h e i r k u n y a , c a l l i n g t h e m s e l v e s “ a l - S u i s r i ” o r “ A s - S w i s s r y . ” A n i n d i v i d u a l c a l l i n g h i m s e l f A b o u S u l e y m a n S u i s s e r y i s t a g g e d i n a p h o t o s m i l i n g a n d h o l d i n g a g u n i n t h e c o m p a n y o f o t h e r a r m e d

33 “Radikalisiert durch Balkan-Prediger,” SonntagsZei-

tung, March 30, 2014.

34 “Aargau muss Genugtuung an Dschihadisten zahl-

en,” Schweizer Radio und Fernsehen, May 14, 2014.

35 “Reaktionen zum Brugger Terroristen Cendrim R.”

Solothurner Zeitung, March 30, 2014; “Der gewalttätige

Gotteskrieger aus Brugg,” Tages-Anzeiger/Der Bund,

March 27, 2014; “Er war renitent und unzufrieden,“

Blick, March 31, 2014.

36 “Der gewalttätige Gotteskrieger aus Brugg,” Tages-

Anzeiger/Der Bund, March 27, 2014.

37 These details are based on the authors’ analysis of

Valdes’ Facebook account in 2013 and 2014.

38 Daniel Glaus and Ursula Zenger, “Im Netzwerk des

Attentäters,” SonntagsZeitung, November 20, 2011.

m i l i t a n t s w h o c a l l t h e m s e l v e s “ T e a m o f S h o c k . ” 3 9 R e p o r t e d l y a n a t u r a l i z e d S w i s s c i t i z e n o f N o r t h A f r i c a n d e s c e n t f r o m c a n t o n V a u d , S u l e y m a n t o l d o n e o f t h e a u t h o r s t h a t h e w a s “ t h e o f f i c i a l r e c r u i t e r o f A l - Q a ` i d a i n S w i t z e r l a n d . ” H e a s k e d f o r m o n e y t o f u r t h e r e l a b o r a t e o n t h i s c l a i m — s o m e t h i n g t h e a u t h o r d e c l i n e d . 4 0

Conclusion T h e n u m b e r o f S w i s s j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a i s s m a l l w h e n c o m p a r e d t o m o s t o t h e r E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e w i t h a s i m i l a r l y s i z e d p o p u l a t i o n . Y e t t h e p r e s e n c e o f a n u n d e t e r m i n e d n u m b e r o f i t s c i t i z e n s a n d r e s i d e n t s f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a i s a r e l a t i v e l y n e w p h e n o m e n o n f o r S w i t z e r l a n d . I t d e m o n s t r a t e s t h a t S w i t z e r l a n d s u f f e r s f r o m r a d i c a l i z a t i o n d y n a m i c s s i m i l a r t o i t s n e i g h b o r s , a l b e i t o n a s m a l l e r s c a l e .

M o r e o v e r , t h e i s s u e o f f o r e i g n f i g h t e r s m i g h t b e p a r t i c u l a r l y p r o b l e m a t i c f o r S w i t z e r l a n d , w h o s e l e g i s l a t i o n d o e s n o t p o s s e s s e x t e n s i v e a n d p r e c i s e p r o v i s i o n s c o v e r i n g t h e p h e n o m e n o n . A s o f J u l y 2 0 1 4 , S w i s s a u t h o r i t i e s h a v e n o t f i l e d a n y c r i m i n a l c a s e s a g a i n s t i n d i v i d u a l s s u s p e c t e d o f h a v i n g f o u g h t i n S y r i a , i n c l u d i n g i n a c a s e l i k e M a t h i e u ’ s i n w h i c h e v i d e n c e o f h i s t i e s t o j i h a d i s t a c t i v i t y i s s t r o n g .

D a n i e l G l a u s i s a r e p o r t e r f o r t h e S w i s s w e e k l i e s S o n n t a g s Z e i t u n g / L e M a t i n D i m a n c h e .

L o r e n z o V i d i n o , P h . D . , i s a S e n i o r F e l l o w a t t h e C e n t e r f o r S e c u r i t y S t u d i e s , E T H Z u r i c h .

39 These details are based on the authors’ analysis of

Facebook pages. Originally published in French, the

photo caption read, “L’équipe de choc... un renouveau et

un nouveau départbi idhnillah.” It was published on April

11, 2014, by a French jihadist (also tagged as being in the

picture).

40 This conversation occurred in a Facebook chat with

the author on March 30, 2014.

Dutch Foreign Fighters Continue to Travel to Syria

By Samar Batrawi and Ilona Chmoun

as the war in syria c o n t i n u e s , t h e N e t h e r l a n d s f a c e s a n u m b e r o f c h a l l e n g e s i n m o n i t o r i n g D u t c h f o r e i g n f i g h t e r s . I n a w o r r y i n g n o t e p u b l i s h e d i n J u n e 2 0 1 4 b y t h e D u t c h G e n e r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e a n d S e c u r i t y S e r v i c e ( A I V D ) , t h e a g e n c y c l a i m e d t h a t b u d g e t c u t s p a i r e d w i t h “ n e w d y n a m i c s ” i n t h e j i h a d i s t m o v e m e n t h a v e t r i g g e r e d a s e r i o u s c a p a c i t y c r i s i s . 1 T h e A I V D t e a m s i n c h a r g e o f t r a c k i n g j i h a d i s t s a r e b a r e l y c o p i n g w i t h t h e w o r k l o a d , a n d a d d i t i o n a l p l a n n e d b u d g e t c u t s w i l l r e p o r t e d l y f o r c e t h e a g e n c y t o d r o p s e v e r a l o f t h e s e t e a m s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e d y n a m i c s o f t h e r a d i c a l i z a t i o n a n d r e c r u i t m e n t o f j i h a d i s t s i n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s a r e c o n t i n u o u s l y e v o l v i n g .

T h i s a r t i c l e a d d r e s s e s r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s a m o n g t h e D u t c h f o r e i g n f i g h t e r c o n t i n g e n t i n S y r i a . I t e x a m i n e s a m a n i f e s t o t h a t d e s c r i b e s t h e m o t i v e s a n d g o a l s o f t h e D u t c h f i g h t e r s , r e v i e w s t h e s e f i g h t e r s ’ v i s i b i l i t y o n s o c i a l m e d i a a n d p r o f i l e s t w o o f t h e m , a n d c o n c l u d e s w i t h a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e m e a s u r e s t a k e n b y t h e D u t c h g o v e r n m e n t . I t f i n d s t h a t t h e v i s i b i l i t y o f a n d p o p u l a r c o n c e r n s u r r o u n d i n g D u t c h j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a h a s i n c r e a s e d , w h i l e t h e g o v e r n m e n t ’ s r e s p o n s e r e m a i n s t e p i d .

The Dutch Foreign Fighter Manifesto T h r o u g h s o c i a l m e d i a , t h e D u t c h p r e s s a n d i n f o r m a t i o n r e l e a s e d b y D u t c h a u t h o r i t i e s , t h e a u t h o r s h a v e i d e n t i f i e d 3 7 D u t c h i n d i v i d u a l s w h o h a v e f o u g h t i n S y r i a . T h i s m e a n s t h a t a n a d d i t i o n a l 1 7 p e o p l e h a v e b e e n i d e n t i f i e d s i n c e O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 , 2 i n c l u d i n g t h r e e w o m e n a n d t w o m i n o r s . 3 T h e g e n e r a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e 1 7 n e w l y i d e n t i f i e d f i g h t e r s d o e s n o t d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h e 2 0 f i g h t e r s

1 “New dynamics” refers to the shift from forums and

preachers to the more dynamic platform of social media

as the foundation of homegrown radicalization. For more

details, see “Veiligheidsdienst AIVD verliest zicht op es-

calerend jihadisme,” NRC Handelsblad, June 20, 2014.

2 See the author’s previous article on the Dutch foreign

fighter contingent in Syria: Samar Batrawi, “The Dutch

Foreign Fighter Contingent in Syria,” CTC Sentinel 6:10

(2013).

3 For the full interview, see www.eenopeen.incontxt.nl/

seizoenen/2014/afleveringen/10-04-2014.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

12

i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e CTC Sentinel i n O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 . T h e m a i n c o m p o n e n t i s D u t c h - M o r o c c a n , w h i l e o t h e r b a c k g r o u n d s i n c l u d e T u r k i s h , I r a q i , K u r d i s h , t h e B a l k a n s , a n d a t l e a s t o n e p e r s o n w i t h a S o m a l i b a c k g r o u n d . A m o n g t h e s e n a m e s a r e t w o D u t c h c o n v e r t s : A n w a r A b u I b r a h i e m a l - R u m i 4 f r o m t h e H a g u e , a n d V i c t o r D . “ Z a k a r i a a l - H o l a n d i ” 5 f r o m H e e t e n , b o t h o f w h o m a r e i n A l e p p o . T h e a v e r a g e a g e o f t h e a d d i t i o n a l 1 7 f i g h t e r s b a s e d o n t h e a u t h o r s ’ d a t a s e t i s 2 2 - y e a r s - o l d . M o s t o f t h e f i g h t e r s a r e f r o m t h e H a g u e , Z o e t e r m e e r , D e l f t a n d A r n h e m . A c c o r d i n g t o a n A I V D r e p o r t , o u t o f a t o t a l o f 1 0 0 - 1 5 0 D u t c h j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a , 6 t w o h a v e c o m m i t t e d s u i c i d e a t t a c k s i n S y r i a a n d I r a q 7; t w e l v e D u t c h f i g h t e r s h a v e d i e d i n S y r i a 8; a n d a t l e a s t 3 0 f i g h t e r s 9 h a v e r e t u r n e d t o t h e N e t h e r l a n d s . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 2 0 D u t c h w o m e n 1 0 a r e c u r r e n t l y i n S y r i a , m o s t o f w h o m a r e t h o u g h t t o h a v e f o l l o w e d t h e i r h u s b a n d s t o t h e b a t t l e f i e l d .

I n O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 , a 1 5 0 - p a g e m a n i f e s t o c a l l e d De Banier1 1 w a s p u b l i s h e d b y ,

4 Anwar Abu Ibrahiem al-Rumi is a Dutch convert from

the Hague fighting with the ISIL who posts a mix of Ara-

bic and Dutch information on his Facebook page, where

a picture of him is shown with another Dutch ISIL fighter

from the Hague called Abou Hatim La Haye. In Dutch-

language comments on several pictures, friends call them

“the lions of the umma from the Hagueistan.” For more

details, see www.facebook.com/abu.ibrahiem.96.

5 Abdelkarim honing - Interview met Zakariya al Hollandi

deel 1, April 2, 2013, available at www.youtube.com/

watch?v=QjK_j3OrjCc.

6 “Ruim 100 Nederlandse jihadstrijders zijn naar Syrië

gereisd,” Algemeen Nederlands Persbureau, July 27,

2014.

7 “Annual Report 2013,” Dutch General Intelligence and

Security Service, 2013.

8 These twelve are: Mourad M. (21-years-old) from Delft;

Soufian E. (20) from Delft; Yasine B. (23) from Zoeter-

meer; Choukri M. (26) from Delft (Mourad’s older broth-

er); Saddek S. (26); Ibrahim A.; Soufian H. (19) from the

Hague; Abu Fidaa’ (also known as Abu Jandal) (26) from

Delft; Moerad Ö. (“Ibrahim the Turk”) from the Hague;

Abu Obayda al-Holandi; Abu Hamza; and Abu Usama

al-Holandi al-Maghribi from the Hague.

9 According to the AIVD, as quoted in: “Primeur: jihadist

gepakt na reis naar Syrië,” De Volkskrant, April 29, 2014.

10 The Dutch newspaper Trouw interviewed Fatima’s fa-

ther in March 2014, who expressed great concern about

Fatima’s sister who wanted to follow her sister to Syria.

For the interview, see Perdiep Ramesar, “‘Had ik Fatima

maar thuis gehouden,’” Trouw, March 4, 2014.

11 An online PDF copy of De Banier can be found at www.

alminara.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/de-banier3.pdf.

The document is divided into seven chapters: 1) Capital-

a m o n g o t h e r s , A b u F i d a a ’ , t h e m a n w h o c a l l e d h i m s e l f t h e s p o k e s p e r s o n o f D u t c h j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a u n t i l h i s d e a t h i n N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 . 1 2 T h e b o o k o p e n e d w i t h a r e j e c t i o n o f W e s t e r n c a p i t a l i s m . H a p p i n e s s , t h e m a n i f e s t o s t a t e d , i s m e r e l y a p a r a d o x i c a l i l l u s i o n , a s t h e r a t e o f s u i c i d e s , p r i s o n e r s a n d c h i l d h o o d d e p r e s s i o n i s h i g h e r i n t h e W e s t t h a n a n y w h e r e e l s e . I s l a m i s p r e s e n t e d a s t h e s o l u t i o n t o t h e s e p r o b l e m s , b u t a l s o a s t h e s o l u t i o n t o t h e m o r a l b a n k r u p t c y a n d d o u b l e s t a n d a r d s o f t h e W e s t , e x e m p l i f i e d b y U . S . s c h o o l s h o o t i n g s , t h e a b u s e a t G u a n t a n a m o B a y a n d A b u G h u r a y b , a n d t h e g e n e r a l m i s t r e a t m e n t o f w o m e n .

T h e n e x t c h a p t e r s d i s c u s s e d r e c e n t p o l i t i c a l e v e n t s , w h i c h h a v e , i n t h e e y e s o f t h e a u t h o r s , d e p r i v e d M u s l i m s o f I s l a m i c l a w . T h e b o o k c l a i m e d t h a t W e s t e r n c o u n t r i e s , s p e a r h e a d e d b y t h e C e n t r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e A g e n c y ( C I A ) , h a v e g i v e n t h e t a c i t U . S . a l l y B a s h a r a l - A s s a d t h e g r e e n l i g h t t o k i l l M u s l i m s u s i n g a n y m e a n s n e c e s s a r y . A s t h e r e s i s t a n c e a g a i n s t a l - A s s a d c a n m a i n l y b e a s c r i b e d t o f o r e i g n f i g h t e r s a n d S y r i a n m u j a h i d i n , t h e a u t h o r s c l a i m e d t h a t t h e y a r e t h e f i g h t e r s o n w h i c h t h e S y r i a n p e o p l e c a n r e l y . B a s e d o n a c o l l e c t i o n o f ahadith ( I s l a m i c s c r i p t u r e s ) , t h e a u t h o r s e x p e c t t h e S y r i a n c o n f l i c t t o b e c o m e a l e g e n d a r y , d e c i s i v e w a r t h a t m i g h t t r i g g e r a t h i r d W o r l d W a r . A n a l t e r n a t i v e t o W e s t e r n d e m o c r a c y i s p r e s e n t e d i n a 1 3 - p o i n t c h a p t e r , w h i c h i n c l u d e d t o p i c s l i k e e c o n o m i c s t a b i l i t y , f r e e d o m o f r e l i g i o n a n d w o m e n ’ s r i g h t s , a l l o f t h e m b a s e d o n t r a d i t i o n a l I s l a m i c p r i n c i p l e s . T h e o v e r t o n e o f t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e i s t h e r e t u r n o f s o c i e t y t o t h e e a r l y d a y s o f I s l a m , o p p o s i n g n o t o n l y S h i ` a M u s l i m s , b u t “ c o r r u p t e d ” a n d s t a t u s q u o S u n n i s a s w e l l .

ist Liberalism; 2) Neocolonial Despotism; 3) The Legend-

ary Conflict; 4) The Shifting Balance of Power; 5) The Fu-

ture Alternative; 6) The Ethical Fundament; and 7) The

Ideological Front.

12 Abu Fidaa’ was the spokesperson whose interview

with the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant was quoted in

Batrawi. He was a 26-year-old Dutch businessman from

Delft. His death was announced by the radical Dutch

website De Ware Religie and later confirmed by his fam-

ily.

Social Media Presence D u t c h f i g h t e r s h a v e b e c o m e m o r e v i s i b l e i n s o c i a l m e d i a a n d i n t h e D u t c h p r e s s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w h o j o i n e d t h e r a n k s o f t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) . 1 3 T h e I S I L a n d i t s D u t c h f i g h t e r s a l s o s e e m t o b e s l i g h t l y m o r e a c t i v e t h a n t h e a l - Q a ` i d a a f f i l i a t e J a b h a t a l - N u s r a i n s p r e a d i n g D u t c h - l a n g u a g e p r o p a g a n d a . 1 4 A s p a r t o f t h i s l a r g e r c h a r m o f f e n s i v e , a g r o u p o f D u t c h j i h a d i s t s u n d e r t h e n a m e o f “ F i g h t i n g J o u r n a l i s t s ” u p l o a d e d a p r o m o t i o n a l v i d e o o n Y o u T u b e t i t l e d Oh Oh Aleppo Spookstad o n J u n e 2 4 , w h i c h w a s d i s t r i b u t e d o n t h e p o p u l a r D u t c h j i h a d i s t h u b s D e W a r e R e l i g i e a n d S h a a m A l G h a r e e b a . I n t h e v i d e o , j i h a d i s t s w a l k e d t h r o u g h t h e r u b b l e o f A l e p p o , a n d s p o k e t o t h e v i e w e r s w h i l e

s h o o t i n g f r o m a n d b e i n g s h o t a t i n a n a b a n d o n e d a p a r t m e n t . T h e o v e r t o n e o f t h e v i d e o s e e m e d t o b e b o t h o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e S y r i a n A r a b A r m y , d e s c r i b e d a s i n h u m a n e s l a u g h t e r e r s , a n d t h e p e r s u a s i o n t h a t j i h a d i n S y r i a i s w o r t h t h e e f f o r t . O n t h e f o r m e r , t h e j i h a d i s t s r e p e a t e d l y e x p r e s s e d t h e i r a n g e r a n d f r u s t r a t i o n a t M u s l i m s g e t t i n g k i l l e d b y a l - A s s a d w h i l e t h e M u s l i m s o c i e t y r e m a i n e d i n a c t i v e . J i h a d i s t s , t h e y a r g u e d , a r e t h e p r o t e c t o r s o f t h e i n n o c e n t . O n t h e l a t t e r p o i n t , t h e y g a v e t h e i m p r e s s i o n o f a c l o s e , b r o t h e r l y c o m m u n i t y o f j i h a d i s t s w h o s u p p o r t e a c h o t h e r w h e n u n d e r f i r e . 1 5

13 In June 2014, the ISIL shortened its name to the “Is-

lamic State.” This article, however, still refers to the

group by its more common name, the ISIL.

14 This text can be found on the picture at www.face-

book.com/photo.php?fbid=247442092112391&set=a.10

6652169524718.1073741828.100005398058758&type=1

&theater.

15 The full version of the controversial video that shows

a glimpse into the lives of Dutch jihadists in Syria is

called Oh Oh Aleppo de Spookstad (Oh Oh Aleppo the

Ghost Town), a reference to the popular Dutch song

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“The ISIL and its Dutch fighters also seem to be slightly more active than the al-Qa`ida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in spreading Dutch-language propaganda.”

13

T h i s i n t e r a c t i v e a p p r o a c h b e c a m e a l l t h e m o r e e v i d e n t i n a n a n n o u n c e d q u e s t i o n s a n d a n s w e r s s e s s i o n v i a Y o u T u b e p u b l i s h e d o n J u n e 2 6 , 2 0 1 4 , i n w h i c h v i e w e r s c o u l d h a v e t h e i r q u e s t i o n s a n s w e r e d b y f i g h t e r s i n S y r i a . T h e a i m o f t h i s s e s s i o n w a s t o d e b u n k t h e i m a g e o f t h e f i g h t e r s t h a t c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m e x p e r t s h a v e p a i n t e d . 1 6

Profile I: Ashraf, the Underage Fighter17 A s h r a f , a 1 6 - y e a r - o l d D u t c h - M o r o c c a n b o y , b e c a m e k n o w n t o t h e D u t c h p u b l i c a f t e r h i s f a t h e r h e l d a n e m o t i o n a l p l e a o n D u t c h t e l e v i s i o n . H i s f a t h e r , F a r i d , w a s o p e n a b o u t t h e p r o c e s s t h a t r e s u l t e d i n h i s s o n ’ s t r a v e l t o S y r i a i n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 3 . A s h r a f ’ s d o c t o r , h i s s c h o o l y o u t h

p r o t e c t i o n s e r v i c e s , t h e c i t y c o u n c i l a n d t h e p o l i c e w e r e a l l i n v o l v e d b y t h e r e q u e s t o f h i s f a t h e r i n a n a t t e m p t t o d e r a d i c a l i z e h i m , y e t A s h r a f s t i l l s u c c e e d e d i n s n e a k i n g o u t o f t h e h o u s e i n t h e m i d d l e o f t h e n i g h t .

A c c o r d i n g t o a n e x t e n s i v e m e d i a i n t e r v i e w w i t h A s h r a f ’ s f a t h e r , A s h r a f w a s a p o l i t e y e t s o c i a l b o y . 1 8 H i s f a t h e r r a i s e d h i m a s a M u s l i m . A s h r a f w a n t e d t o b e c o m e a p o l i c e o f f i c e r o r w o r k w i t h t h e D u t c h M i n i s t r y o f D e f e n s e . T h r e e m o n t h s b e f o r e A s h r a f ’ s d e p a r t u r e t o S y r i a , h e s t a r t e d t o c h a n g e . H i s f a t h e r f i r s t n o t i c e d t h i s w h e n A s h r a f s t a r t e d

Oh Oh Den Haag (Oh Oh The Hague) and the more re-

cent Oh Oh Cherso, the Dutch version of the MTV series

Jersey Shore. For the video, see www.youtube.com/

watch?v=miqGbVdj2xQ.

16 A video titled Vraag het een Syriëganger! (Ask a Syr-

ian Foreign Fighter) was published to announce a

Q&A session. For details, see www.youtube.com/

watch?v=kUbuYrRgfsY.

17 This profile is based on the interview held with

Ashraf’s father in April 2014. For the full interview, see

Farid - vader van minderjarige Syrië-strijder, Een op Een,

April 10, 2014.

18 Ibid.

l o c k i n g t h e d o o r t o h i s r o o m a n d c e a s e d a t t e n d i n g t h e f a m i l y ’ s m o s q u e , s a y i n g i t w a s f u l l o f i n f i d e l s . H i s f a t h e r t r i e d t o t a k e h i m t o d i f f e r e n t i m a m s a n d g a v e h i m n a m e s o f M u s l i m s c h o l a r s w h o c o u l d b e n e f i t A s h r a f , b u t h i s s o n r e f u s e d a n y d i a l o g u e . F a r i d a l s o t r i e d t o c o n n e c t h i s s o n w i t h a n I s l a m i c p s y c h o l o g i s t , b u t A s h r a f n e v e r s h o w e d u p t o m e e t i n g s .

A s h r a f b e c a m e s o e s t r a n g e d f r o m h i s f a t h e r t h a t h e s t a r t e d c a l l i n g h i m a n i n f i d e l a n d a d e v i l . O n e d a y , F a r i d n o t i c e d a b e a r d e d m a n i n a c a r w a i t i n g o u t s i d e h i s h o u s e . F a r i d w a n t e d t o k n o w w h o w a s i n f l u e n c i n g h i s s o n a n d s t a r t e d f o l l o w i n g h i m . H e f o l l o w e d A s h r a f t o a h o u s e w h e r e a g r o u p o f p e o p l e g a t h e r e d o n a r e g u l a r b a s i s . A f t e r t h e f i r s t g a t h e r i n g , h i s s o n e x i t e d t h e h o u s e w i t h t h e s a m e b e a r d e d m a n t h a t F a r i d h a d s e e n o u t s i d e t h e i r h o m e . F a r i d n o t i f i e d t h e p o l i c e o f t h i s a d d r e s s i m m e d i a t e l y . H e c o n f r o n t e d t h e m a n , w h o i n s i s t e d t h e y w e r e o n l y d i s c u s s i n g s o m e v e r s e s f r o m t h e Q u r ’ a n .

A s h r a f r e f u s e d t o e a t m e a t a n y m o r e — c l a i m i n g i t w a s n o t h a l a l e n o u g h — a n d t o b e i n t h e s a m e r o o m a s w o m e n . H e b e g a n c r i t i c i z i n g h i s s i s t e r s a n d t e l l i n g t h e m w h a t t o w e a r . H e g r e w h i s h a i r a n d b e a r d . F a r i d t r i e d t o p r e v e n t h i s s o n f r o m g o i n g o u t s i d e , a f r a i d t h a t h e w o u l d n o t r e t u r n . O n c e , w h e n A s h r a f l e f t h i s c o m p u t e r t o u s e t h e r e s t r o o m , F a r i d w e n t i n t o h i s s o n ’ s r o o m a n d a c c e s s e d h i s c o m p u t e r . H e f o u n d m a n y r a d i c a l w e b s i t e s , v i d e o s o f b e h e a d i n g s a n d p i c t u r e s o f d e a d b o d i e s . F a r i d s h u t o f f t h e i n t e r n e t , a n d a f t e r F a r i d f o u n d o u t t h a t A s h r a f w a s s t i l l c o n n e c t i n g t o o t h e r n e t w o r k s , h e b r o k e h i s c o m p u t e r .

O n t h e d a y t h a t A s h r a f l e f t f o r S y r i a , h e h a d a g r e e d w i t h h i s f a t h e r t o s e e t h e p o l i c e a n d t h e c i t y c o u n c i l . H i s f a t h e r i n s i s t e d t h a t h e h a n d h i s p a s s p o r t t o t h e m , b u t A s h r a f r e f u s e d . T h e p o l i c e a n d t h e c i t y c o u n c i l p r o m i s e d t o k e e p a n e y e o n h i m b u t d i d n o t f o r c e h i m t o h a n d o v e r h i s p a s s p o r t . H e f l e d t h e h o u s e t h a t s a m e e v e n i n g a n d n e v e r r e t u r n e d . O n M a r c h 2 8 , 2 0 1 4 , A s h r a f w a s o n l i n e i n T u r k e y , n e a r t h e S y r i a n b o r d e r , w h e r e h i s f a t h e r s u s p e c t s h e r e c e i v e d t r a i n i n g b e f o r e c r o s s i n g i n t o S y r i a .

Profile II: Robbin, the Returned Convert19

R o b b i n v a n D . , a t 1 8 - y e a r s - o l d , f o u n d I s l a m t h r o u g h h i s M u s l i m f r i e n d s i n A r n h e m , b u t g r a d u a l l y s t a r t e d t o t a k e a n i n t e r e s t i n m o r e r a d i c a l M u s l i m f i g u r e s s u c h a s M a l c o l m X . H e s t r u g g l e d t o d e c i d e w h a t h e w a n t e d t o d o w i t h h i s l i f e . H e r a p p e d a l o t w i t h h i s f r i e n d

M a r o u a n e , a n o t h e r D u t c h f i g h t e r i n S y r i a . H e s t o p p e d s e e i n g h i s n o n - M u s l i m f r i e n d s a f t e r h e c o n v e r t e d t o I s l a m , a n d , h a l f w a y t h r o u g h 2 0 1 3 , R o b b i n a n d M a r o u a n e s t o p p e d r a p p i n g a b o u t g i r l s a n d s t a r t e d r a p p i n g e x c l u s i v e l y a b o u t I s l a m . T h e y s c o r e d a Y o u T u b e h i t w i t h t h e s o n g Ramadan. 2 0

R o b b i n , M a r o u a n e a n d a n o t h e r f r i e n d n a m e d H a k i m 2 1 o f t e n w e n t t o t h e A l F a t h m o s q u e i n A r n h e m t o p r a y . 2 2 T h e a u t h o r s o f a n a r t i c l e o n t h e t h r e e f r i e n d s f r o m A r n h e m c l a i m e d t h a t t h e y d i s c o v e r e d f l y e r s a n n o u n c i n g s e r m o n s b y D u t c h S a l a f i s t p r e a c h e r s i n t h e m o s q u e , s u c h a s A b o u S a y f o u l l a h a n d A l K h a t t a b . R o b b i n a n d M a r o u a n e a l s o t o o k A r a b i c l e s s o n s a t t h e O m a r A l K h a t t a b F o u n d a t i o n i n A r n h e m . 2 3 T h e d i r e c t o r o f t h a t f o u n d a t i o n , A n o i r e R h a r s s i s s e , c l a i m s t o f u l l y o p p o s e f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a , a l t h o u g h h e p r e a c h e s q u i t e t h e o p p o s i t e i n s o c i a l m e d i a u n d e r t h e n a m e A b o e N u s a y b a h . 2 4

19 This profile is largely based on a detailed report about

three jihadist friends from Arnhem. See “Van vrolijke

rapper tot jihadist Dag mam, ik ga naar Syrië!” NRC, De-

cember 28, 2013.

20 Their music video is available at www.youtube.com/

watch?v=BtXP_9nv1d0.

21 Hakim attempted to travel to Syria but was stopped in

his car in Germany.

22 “Van vrolijke rapper tot jihadist Dag mam, ik ga naar

Syrië!”

23 Ibid.

24 Ibid.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“On June 20, the city of the Hague allowed a pro- ISIL demonstration to take place because it saw ‘no ground’ to prevent it—even though the ISIL is listed as a terrorist organization by the United Nations.”“On March 28, 2014, Ashraf

was online in Turkey, near the Syrian border, where his father suspects he received training before crossing into Syria.”

14

R o b b i n a n d M a r o u a n e s p e n t a l o t o f t i m e i n M a r o u a n e ’ s r o o m , p r a y i n g a n d r e a d i n g t h e Q u r ’ a n . I m a g e s o f s u f f e r i n g S y r i a n s t o u c h e d t h e m , a c c o r d i n g t o M a r o u a n e ’ s m o t h e r . T h e f r i e n d s r e c e i v e d p i c t u r e s f r o m a n o l d e r f r i e n d w h o w a s a l r e a d y i n S y r i a , a n d w h o t h e y c o n s i d e r e d a r o l e m o d e l . T h e b o y s s t a r t e d c o n s u l t i n g t h e Q u r ’ a n a b o u t t h e c o n c e p t o f H o l y W a r , a n d b e g a n r e a d i n g b o o k s o n t h e t o p i c a s w e l l a s m a n u s c r i p t s s u c h a s t h o s e f r o m A b u M u h a m m a d a l - M a q d i s i . T h e y r e a d e v e r y t h i n g o n D e W a r e R e l i g i e , a D u t c h e x t r e m i s t w e b s i t e . T h e y a l s o l i s t e n e d t o s p e e c h e s b y F o u a d B e l k a c e m , t h e l e a d e r o f S h a r i a 4 B e l g i u m , a n d b e c a m e c o n v i n c e d t h a t t h e y w e r e u s e l e s s f o r n o t h e l p i n g o u t t h e i r M u s l i m b r o t h e r s .

R o b b i n a n d h i s f r i e n d M a r o u a n e c r o s s e d t h e b o r d e r b e t w e e n T u r k e y a n d S y r i a i n N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 a n d b o t h s p e n t t i m e i n A l e p p o . R o b b i n r e t u r n e d t o t h e N e t h e r l a n d s i n M a r c h 2 0 1 4 . H i s a c t i v i t i e s s i n c e h i s r e t u r n a r e u n k n o w n , a l t h o u g h h e s e e m s a p o l o g e t i c a b o u t h i s d e c i s i o n a n d c l a i m s h e f l e d S y r i a i n s e c r e t . 2 5 M a r o u a n e r e m a i n s i n S y r i a . 2 6

Government Measures Against (Returned) Fighters T h u s f a r , i n t h e a b s e n c e o f a c o l l e c t i v e a p p r o a c h , t h e D u t c h g o v e r n m e n t h a s o n l y p u s h e d t h r o u g h a f e w m e a s u r e s a g a i n s t D u t c h j i h a d i s t s . M o s t c o n c e r n i n g i s t h e r e p o r t e d l a c k o f a d e q u a t e b u d g e t i n g f o r i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g . T h e D u t c h N a t i o n a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r S e c u r i t y a n d C o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m ( N C T V ) h a s e x p r e s s e d i t s c o n c e r n a b o u t D u t c h j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a a n d h a s w a r n e d a b o u t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f n e w g e n e r a t i o n s o f f i g h t e r s , r e s u l t i n g i n a s u s t a i n a b l e t h r e a t t o E u r o p e . B e c a u s e o f t h e I S I L ’ s r e c e n t a d v a n c e m e n t s , t h e N C T V f e a r s t h a t t h e p o p u l a r i t y o f j i h a d i s t f a c t i o n s w i l l o n l y i n c r e a s e a m o n g r a d i c a l i z e d D u t c h y o u t h . I t r e c o g n i z e s t h a t t h e N e t h e r l a n d s i s n o t i m m u n e t o a t t a c k s s i m i l a r t o t h e o n e i n B r u s s e l s o n M a y 2 4 , 2 0 1 4 , w h i c h w a s c o m m i t t e d b y a r e t u r n e d S y r i a n f o r e i g n f i g h t e r . 2 7

25 Bart Olmer, “Polderjihadist vlucht voor geweld,” De

Telegraaf, March 13, 2014.

26 For more details, see www.facebook.com/

MaruOne026?fref=pb&hc_location=friends_tab.

27 Periodical updates on the threat level in the Nether-

lands are given by the NCTV. This level is mainly deter-

mined by developments surrounding Dutch foreign fight-

T h e N C T V h a s a t t e m p t e d t o f o r c e t h e e x t r e m i s t w e b s i t e D e W a r e R e l i g i e — o n e o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t p l a t f o r m s f o r D u t c h j i h a d i s t s — o f f l i n e , s o f a r w i t h o u t s u c c e s s . 2 8 D e s p i t e t h e f e a r o f t h e I S I L i n p a r t i c u l a r , o n J u n e 2 0 t h e

c i t y o f t h e H a g u e a l l o w e d 2 9 a p r o - I S I L d e m o n s t r a t i o n t o t a k e p l a c e b e c a u s e i t s a w “ n o g r o u n d ” t o p r e v e n t i t — e v e n t h o u g h t h e I S I L i s l i s t e d a s a t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n b y t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s .

T h e D u t c h g o v e r n m e n t p r o m i s e d a n i n c r e a s e i n c o o p e r a t i o n b e t w e e n d i f f e r e n t b r a n c h e s t o e n h a n c e i n t e r n a l s e c u r i t y , a n d a r e c e n t r e p o r t c l a i m s t h a t t h e A I V D s h a r e d a l i s t o f n a m e s w i t h t h e T u r k i s h s e c u r i t y s e r v i c e s t o p r e v e n t t h e f l o w o f t h e s e p e o p l e i n t o S y r i a f r o m T u r k e y . 3 0 Y e t T u r k e y ’ s w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c t o n t h e l i s t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e . A v i s a i s n o t r e q u i r e d t o c r o s s t h e T u r k i s h - S y r i a n b o r d e r , a n d t h e b o r d e r i s e a s i l y p a s s e d w i t h t h e a i d o f r e c r u i t e r s w h o a r e p r e s e n t i n a b u n d a n c e i n T u r k e y ’ s s o u t h e r n p r o v i n c e o f H a t a y . 3 1

ers. See “Actueel dreigingsniveau,” National Coordinator

for Security and Counterterrorism, June 30, 2014.

28 “Antiterreurbaas treedt op tegen jihadsite,” De

Telegraaf, June 19, 2014; “Providers gevraagd jihadsites

te wissen,” De Telegraaf, June 18, 2014.

29 “ISIS-demonstratie Den Haag mag,” NOS Journaal,

June 17, 2014.

30 “‘AIVD geeft Turkije namen Nederlandse Syriëgang-

ers,’” Novum, June 16, 2014.

31 It is possible to travel from the Netherlands to Syria

in 48 hours when using the Turkey route. For more de-

tails, see “Binnen 48 uur van Nederland naar Syrië,” De

Telegraaf, June 30, 2014.

O n e p r e v e n t i v e m e a s u r e t h a t w a s a n n o u n c e d i n t h e D u t c h p r e s s i n F e b r u a r y w a s t h e d e n i a l o f p a s s p o r t s t o 1 0 m e n a n d w o m e n w h o w e r e s u s p e c t e d o f p l a n n i n g t o t r a v e l t o S y r i a f o r j i h a d . 3 2 T h e l e g a l b a s i s f o r t h i s w a s a r t i c l e 2 3 o f t h e p a s s p o r t l a w 3 3 o f t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , w h i c h m a k e s i t p o s s i b l e t o w i t h d r a w s o m e o n e ’ s p a s s p o r t o r d e n y t h e r e n e w a l o f i t i f t h e p e r s o n i n q u e s t i o n w a n t s t o g o a b r o a d t o e n g a g e i n a c t i v i t i e s t h a t w o u l d e n d a n g e r t h e N e t h e r l a n d s o r o t h e r f r i e n d l y s t a t e s . A d i f f e r e n t m e a s u r e w a s t a k e n a g a i n s t t w o s u s p e c t e d j i h a d i s t s f r o m A r n h e m i n F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 4 w h o w e r e c a u g h t i n G e r m a n y w h i l e t h e y w e r e a l l e g e d l y o n t h e i r w a y t o S y r i a . T h e c h a r g e s a g a i n s t t h e m w e r e d r o p p e d o n t h e c o n d i t i o n t h a t t h e y w e a r a n k l e b r a c e l e t s , s t a y i n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s a n d r e f r a i n f r o m c o m i n g n e a r a i r p o r t s . 3 4

T h e r e h a v e a l s o b e e n i n d i v i d u a l m e a s u r e s a g a i n s t f i g h t e r s w h o r e m a i n i n S y r i a . I n J u n e , t h e s o c i a l w e l f a r e o f “ t e n s ” o f D u t c h j i h a d i s t s w a s s t o p p e d . 3 5 I n t h e s a m e m o n t h , i t w a s a n n o u n c e d t h a t f i g h t e r s r e c e i v i n g a n y s t u d e n t b e n e f i t s f r o m t h e D u t c h g o v e r n m e n t w i l l h a v e t h o s e b e n e f i t s r e v o k e d . 3 6 K h a l i d K . , a D u t c h j i h a d i s t w h o p o s e d w i t h t h e d e c a p i t a t e d h e a d s o f f i v e J a b h a t a l - N u s r a f i g h t e r s , w a s d e n i e d e n t r y t o t h e N e t h e r l a n d s f o r 2 0 y e a r s , a n d i f h e d o e s d e c i d e t o r e t u r n a f t e r t h i s p e r i o d , t h e D u t c h P u b l i c P r o s e c u t i o n w i l l a t t e m p t t o c h a r g e h i m w i t h c r i m e s a g a i n s t h u m a n i t y . 3 7

32 “NCTV: tien paspoorten jihadgangers geweigerd,” De

Volkskrant, February 21, 2014.

33 See the website of the Dutch government at http://wet-

ten.overheid.nl/BWBR0005212/geldigheidsdatum_20-

06-2014.

34 “‘Syriëgangers’ onder voorwaarden vrij, maar moeten

enkelband dragen,” De Volkskrant, February 4, 2014.

35 “Uitkeringen tientallen Nederlandse jihadstrijders

stopgezet,” Het Parool, June 17, 2014.

36 As stated in a written response to parliamentary in-

quiries about the student benefits that jihadists in Syria

receive. For the statement, see “Onderwerp Antwoorden

kamervragen over studiefinanciering voor jihadstri-

jders,” Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice, June 16,

2014.

37 Suspected individuals appear in a special register

which is visible to border security and the city council,

both of which can withdraw the passport or choose to

reject its renewal. For details, see “Nederlandse jihadist

van gruwelfoto mag land niet meer in,” De Volkskrant,

April 3, 2014.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“As the Netherlands struggles to agree upon a unified approach to the fighters, it expresses great concern about its future security, while insisting on upholding a tolerant and inclusive approach—a balance which may be impossible to achieve.”

15

I n N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 , i t w a s r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e D u t c h c i t y c o u n c i l s w e r e a t t e m p t i n g t o h e l p r a t h e r t h a n p u n i s h r e t u r n e d f i g h t e r s . D e l f t c u r r e n t l y s u p e r v i s e s a g r o u p o f y o u n g e x - f i g h t e r s t h a t i t a i m s t o r e i n t e g r a t e i n t o D u t c h s o c i e t y b y h e l p i n g t h e m f i n d e m p l o y m e n t o r e d u c a t i o n a n d s t i m u l a t i n g t h e m t o e n g a g e i n l o c a l a c t i v i t i e s . 3 8 T h e i d e a b e h i n d t h i s , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e c i t y c o u n c i l s , i s t o a v o i d f u r t h e r r a d i c a l i z a t i o n t h r o u g h i s o l a t i o n a n d r e p r e s s i o n . 3 9 T h i s d o e s n o t m e a n t h a t t h e p o l i c e a n d t h e j u s t i c e d e p a r t m e n t w i l l n o t p r o s e c u t e i n d i v i d u a l s i f a n y e v i d e n c e o f c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y i s f o u n d ; i t m e r e l y m e a n s t h a t o n a s o c i a l l e v e l t h e c i t y c o u n c i l s o p t f o r r e i n t e g r a t i o n . 4 0

A s r a p i d l y a s k n o w l e d g e a b o u t D u t c h j i h a d i s t s i n S y r i a h a s g r o w n i n t h e p a s t s i x m o n t h s , i t i s f a r f r o m c o m p l e t e . W i t h t h e r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s i n S y r i a a n d I r a q , t h e p r o b l e m o f D u t c h f o r e i g n f i g h t e r s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o e s c a l a t e . A s t h e N e t h e r l a n d s s t r u g g l e s t o a g r e e u p o n a u n i f i e d a p p r o a c h t o t h e f i g h t e r s , i t e x p r e s s e s g r e a t c o n c e r n a b o u t i t s f u t u r e s e c u r i t y , w h i l e i n s i s t i n g o n u p h o l d i n g a t o l e r a n t a n d i n c l u s i v e a p p r o a c h — a b a l a n c e w h i c h m a y b e i m p o s s i b l e t o a c h i e v e . W i t h t h e c a p a c i t y p r o b l e m s f a c e d b y t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e s e r v i c e s , t h e N e t h e r l a n d s i s i n d a n g e r o f f a l l i n g b e h i n d t h e c u r v e .

S a m a r B a t r a w i i s a f r e e l a n c e r e s e a r c h e r a n d P h . D . c a n d i d a t e a t K i n g ’ s C o l l e g e L o n d o n , w h e r e s h e s t u d i e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f c l a n d e s t i n e g r o u p s i n L e b a n o n . S h e i s t h e a u t h o r o f T h e D u t c h F o r e i g n F i g h t e r C o n t i n g e n t i n S y r i a , w h i c h a p p e a r e d i n t h e O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 i s s u e o f t h e C T C S e n t i n e l .

I l o n a C h m o u n i s a S y r i a n - b o r n M S c s t u d e n t i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s a n d D i p l o m a c y a t R a d b o u d U n i v e r s i t y N i j m e g e n , w h e r e s h e i s w r i t i n g o n U . S . f o r e i g n p o l i c y d u r i n g t h e 2 0 1 3 c h e m i c a l w e a p o n s c r i s i s i n S y r i a .

38 The original report can be found at “Teruggekeerde

jihadi’s niet opgepakt maar geholpen,” EenVandaag, No-

vember 6, 2013.

39 Ibid.

40 Ibid.

Boko Haram, the Chibok Abductions and Nigeria’s Counterterrorism Strategy

B y J . N . C . H i l l

during the past t h r e e m o n t h s , h u n d r e d s o f p e o p l e , m a i n l y w o m e n a n d g i r l s , h a v e b e e n a b d u c t e d f r o m v i l l a g e s a c r o s s N i g e r i a ’ s n o r t h e a s t e r n s t a t e o f B o r n o . T o d a t e , o n l y a m i n o r i t y o f t h o s e k i d n a p p e d h a v e r e g a i n e d t h e i r l i b e r t y , o f t e n a s a r e s u l t o f t h e i r o w n e f f o r t s t o e s c a p e . T h e k i d n a p p e r s , w h o h a v e i d e n t i f i e d t h e m s e l v e s a s m e m b e r s o f t h e t e r r o r i s t g r o u p B o k o H a r a m , h a v e b e e n w i d e l y c o n d e m n e d b o t h a t h o m e a n d a b r o a d . Y e t s o h a s N i g e r i a ’ s f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t . I t s f a i l u r e t o p r o t e c t t h e i n h a b i t a n t s o f t h e s e v i l l a g e s , s l o w a n d i n e f f e c t i v e e f f o r t s t o s e c u r e t h e v i c t i m s ’ r e l e a s e , u n s y m p a t h e t i c a n d h e a v y - h a n d e d r e s p o n s e t o t h e d e m o n s t r a t i o n s o f s o l i d a r i t y o r g a n i z e d i n A b u j a , 1 a n d u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t i n t e r n a t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e o r w o r k w i t h f o r e i g n p a r t n e r s h a v e a l l s e r v e d t o t a r n i s h i t s a l r e a d y b a t t e r e d r e p u t a t i o n .

I n d e e d , t h e u n p r e c e d e n t e d g l o b a l c a m p a i g n t o f i n d a n d f r e e t h e 2 5 0 g i r l s t a k e n f r o m t h e v i l l a g e o f C h i b o k w a s i n p a r t d i r e c t e d a t t h e f e d e r a l a u t h o r i t i e s . T h e i n e x p l i c a b l e w i t h d r a w a l o f t h e s o l d i e r s g u a r d i n g t h e s c h o o l f r o m w h i c h t h e y w e r e t a k e n , A b u j a ’ s r e l u c t a n t a n d w e e k - l a t e a d m i s s i o n t h a t t h e y h a d b e e n k i d n a p p e d , a n d t h e s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a b j e c t f a i l u r e t o p u r s u e w h a t l e a d s t h e y h a d i n a t i m e l y f a s h i o n g a v e r i s e t o s e r i o u s d o u b t s a b o u t t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s c o m p e t e n c e a n d d e s i r e t o s a v e t h e g i r l s . 2

T h i s a r t i c l e c o n s i d e r s w h a t t h e s e k i d n a p p i n g s r e v e a l a b o u t B o k o H a r a m a n d t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y . I t f i n d s t h a t A b u j a ’ s f a i l u r e t o d e f e a t o r e v e n s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o n t a i n t h e g r o u p i s d u e , a t l e a s t i n p a r t , t o f o u r s i g n i f i c a n t f l a w s i n i t s s t r a t e g y : i t s o v e r l y k i n e t i c f o c u s , l i m i t e d p o t e n t i a l f o r f u r t h e r e s c a l a t i o n , l o w l e v e l o f r e g i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n a n d

1 “Nigerian Police Arrest Protest Leader for Girls Ab-

ducted by Boko Haram Militants,” Guardian, May 5,

2014.

2 “Nigeria Refused Help to Search for Kidnapped Girls,”

Washington Post, May 11, 2014.

c o n f u s i o n w i t h n o r t h - s o u t h p o l i t i c a l r i v a l r i e s .

Boko Haram and its Continued Development T h e k i d n a p p i n g s o f f e r i m p o r t a n t i n s i g h t s i n t o b o t h B o k o H a r a m a n d N i g e r i a ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y . S i n c e i t s r e n a i s s a n c e a s a f i g h t i n g f o r c e i n l a t e 2 0 1 0 , B o k o H a r a m h a s b e e n i n a s t a t e o f p e r p e t u a l e v o l u t i o n . I t h a s a c t i v e l y e m b r a c e d i n n o v a t i o n a n d a d a p t a t i o n b y c o n s t a n t l y c h a n g i n g w h a t i t d o e s , w h e r e a n d t o w h o m . A b d u c t i o n s w e r e a d d e d t o i t s r e p e r t o i r e o n l y a f e w y e a r s a g o , a n d i t s e a r l y v i c t i m s w e r e m a i n l y E u r o p e a n a n d N o r t h A m e r i c a n c i t i z e n s l i v i n g a n d w o r k i n g i n n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a . 3 R a n s o m s w e r e d e m a n d e d w h i c h , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e n a t i o n a l i t i e s o f t h o s e w h o w e r e s e i z e d , w e r e s o m e t i m e s p a i d . 4 T h e s e k i d n a p p i n g s w e r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e s o u t h o f t h e c o u n t r y b y g r o u p s l i k e t h e M o v e m e n t f o r t h e E m a n c i p a t i o n o f t h e N i g e r D e l t a ( M E N D ) . 5

T h e m a s s a b d u c t i o n s o f t h e p a s t f e w m o n t h s , h o w e v e r , a r e a n e w a c t i v i t y n o t o n l y i n t h e n o r t h , b u t i n t h e w h o l e c o u n t r y . N e v e r b e f o r e h a v e s o m a n y i n d i v i d u a l s b e e n s n a t c h e d a l l a t o n c e , n o r h a v e t h e v i c t i m s b e e n o r d i n a r y p e o p l e . 6 U n l i k e e a r l i e r k i d n a p p i n g s , t h e s e a b d u c t i o n s a r e m o t i v a t e d l e s s b y m o n e y s i n c e n o n e o f t h e f r i e n d s a n d f a m i l i e s o f t h o s e w h o h a v e b e e n t a k e n c a n a f f o r d t o p a y s i g n i f i c a n t r a n s o m s . P r e c e d e n t s f o r t h e s e k i n d s o f a t t a c k s d o e x i s t e l s e w h e r e . I n a n u m b e r o f

3 Doubts remain over who carried out this abduction.

One of the prime suspects is the Islamist terrorist group

Ansaru. According to the International Crisis Group,

Ansaru is one of six factions which together make up

Boko Haram. See “Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The

Boko Haram Insurgency,” International Crisis Group,

April 3, 2014, p. 22; “Italian Abducted in Nigeria Freed,”

BBC, June 2, 2012.

4 “Nigerian Kidnappers ‘Received Ransom Downpay-

ment,’” Guardian, March 11, 2012; “Italian Priests, Ca-

nadian Nun Kidnapped in Cameroon,” Reuters, April 5,

2014.

5 Although the survival rate of victims seized in the north

was lower than for those taken in the south, these abduc-

tions were similar as they were motivated, to a significant

degree, by the kidnappers’ desire to extract ransom pay-

ments. See James Bridger, “Kidnapping Resurgent in the

Gulf of Guinea Piracy,” USNI News, March 14, 2014.

6 Most recently more than 60 women and children were

taken in a series of raids mounted by suspected Boko

Haram militants. See “Nigeria’s Boko Haram ‘Seizes

Women’ in Borno,” BBC, June 24, 2014.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

16

A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , y o u n g m e n h a v e b e e n r o u n d e d u p a n d p r e s s u r e d i n t o s e r v i c e i n g u e r r i l l a g r o u p s . 7 I n A l g e r i a i n t h e 1 9 9 0 s a n d e a r l y 2 0 0 0 s , i n a p e r v e r s i o n o f t h e r e l i g i o u s l a w s o n s e x a n d m a r r i a g e , w o m e n a n d g i r l s w e r e f o r c e d t o t e m p o r a r i l y m a r r y i n s u r g e n t s b e f o r e b e i n g d i s c a r d e d o n c e t h e h u s b a n d s ’ c o n j u g a l r i g h t s h a d b e e n s a t i s f i e d . 8

T h e p a r a l l e l s b e t w e e n w h a t t o o k p l a c e i n A l g e r i a a n d w h a t i s n o w h a p p e n i n g i n N i g e r i a p r o v i d e c i r c u m s t a n t i a l e v i d e n c e o f a l - Q a ` i d a i n t h e I s l a m i c M a g h r e b ’ s ( A Q I M ) g r o w i n g i n f l u e n c e o v e r B o k o H a r a m . 9 I n d e e d , a n d

w h e n c o n s i d e r e d a l o n g s i d e o t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t s i n B o k o H a r m ’ s c a m p a i g n — t h e e x p a n s i o n o f i t s a r e a o f o p e r a t i o n s , t h e e s c a l a t i o n i n t h e f r e q u e n c y o f i t s a t t a c k s , i t s s u c c e s s f u l p r o s e c u t i o n o f m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d a s s a u l t s , a n d e v e r g r e a t e r p r e s e n c e o u t s i d e o f N i g e r i a ’ s b o r d e r s — A Q I M ’ s e f f e c t a p p e a r s t o b e b o t h i n s p i r a t i o n a l a n d m a t e r i a l . I t i s n o w b e y o n d d o u b t t h a t t h e r e a r e l i n k s b e t w e e n t h e g r o u p s . 1 0 N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e i s m u c h

7 Alcinda Honwana, Child Soldiers in Africa (Philadel-

phia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006), p. 5.

8 Marina Lazreg, “Consequences of Political Liber-

alisation and Sociocultural Mobilisation for Women in

Algeria, Egypt and Jordan,” in Anne-Marie Goetz, Gov-

erning Women: Women’s Political Effectiveness in Contexts

of Democratisation and Governance Reform (New York:

Routledge/UNRISD, 2009), p. 47.

9 Jacob Zenn, “Boko Haram and the Kidnapping of the

Chibok Schoolgirls,” CTC Sentinel 7:5 (2014), p. 5.

10 “Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to the U.S. Home-

land,” U.S. House of Representatives Committee on

Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism

and Intelligence, November 30, 2011, p. 2; “Boko Haram:

Growing Threat to the U.S. Homeland,” U.S. House of

Representatives Committee on Homeland Security, Sep-

tember 13, 2013, p. 3.

a b o u t t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t r e m a i n s u n k n o w n i n c l u d i n g t h e t r u e e x t e n t o f A Q I M ’ s i n f l u e n c e a n d t h e p r e c i s e f o r m s i t t a k e s . 1 1

The Weaknesses of Nigeria’s Counterterrorism Strategy I n c o n t r a s t , m o r e c o n c r e t e c o n c l u s i o n s c a n b e d r a w n a b o u t N i g e r i a ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y . B a s e d o n w h a t t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s a t t e m p t e d a n d w h a t h a s t a k e n p l a c e s i n c e t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s t a t e s o f e m e r g e n c y i n A d a m a w a , B o r n o a n d Y o b e j u s t o v e r a y e a r a g o , f o u r s o b e r i n g d e d u c t i o n s c a n b e m a d e . 1 2

T h e f i r s t i s t h a t A b u j a ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y f o c u s e s o v e r w h e l m i n g l y o n k i n e t i c a c t i o n s . T h e r e a r e a r a n g e o f r e a s o n s f o r t h i s . T h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t i s s i m p l e e x p e d i e n c y . T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s t a t e s o f e m e r g e n c y c o n f i r m e d t h e f e d e r a l a u t h o r i t i e s ’ o w n d o u b t s a b o u t t h e i r a b i l i t y t o e f f e c t i v e l y c o n f r o n t B o k o H a r a m w i t h i n t h e e x i s t i n g l e g a l f r a m e w o r k . A b u j a ’ s r e c o u r s e t o s p e c i a l m e a s u r e s h i g h l i g h t e d i t s f e a r s t h a t t h e g r o u p w a s g r o w i n g m o r e , n o t l e s s , d a n g e r o u s ( a s s o m e s e n i o r o f f i c e r s a n d p o l i t i c i a n s h a d c l a i m e d ) , w h i l e i t s d e c i s i o n t o c o n t i n u e t h e m f o r a n o t h e r s i x m o n t h s s u g g e s t s t h a t , d e s p i t e i t s e x t r a o r d i n a r y e f f o r t s , t h e f a c t i o n s t i l l p o s e s a s i g n i f i c a n t t h r e a t . I n t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s l i t t l e c h o i c e b u t t o t r y t o r e a s s e r t i t s c o n t r o l .

Y e t t h e r e i s a m o r e w o r r y i n g r e a s o n w h y t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s r e s p o n s e t o B o k o H a r a m i s m a i n l y k i n e t i c : i t p o s s e s s e s n e i t h e r t h e m e a n s n o r t h e i n c l i n a t i o n t o r e s p o n d i n o t h e r w a y s . T h i s m u c h h a s b e e n c o n f i r m e d b y i t s d e c i s i o n t o c l o s e m a n y o f n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a ’ s s c h o o l s , 1 3 a n d p e r i o d i c a l l y s u s p e n d t h e r e g i o n ’ s m o b i l e p h o n e n e t w o r k . 1 4 B y r e s p o n d i n g i n t h e s e w a y s , t h e f e d e r a l

11 Kirk Ross, “Why Boko Haram Wages War Against

Western Education,” USNI News, May 16, 2014.

12 The states of emergency were declared and renewed

in accordance with section 305 of the 1999 constitution:

“Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999,”

Federal Republic of Nigeria, May 5, 1999, section 305.

13 “Life for Schoolgirls in the North,” al-Jazira, May 15,

2014.

14 “Nigeria: ‘Cut Off’ Under Emergency Rule,” BBC, May

27, 2013.

g o v e r n m e n t h a s n o t o n l y a c c e d e d t o o n e o f B o k o H a r a m ’ s c o r e d e m a n d s a n d , i n s o d o i n g , c o m p r o m i s e d t h e e d u c a t i o n o f t h o u s a n d s o f s t u d e n t s , b u t i t h a s a l s o s e v e r e d t h e m a i n m e a n s o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n f o r m i l l i o n s o f p e o p l e . I n s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h e r e i s l i t t l e t h e a r m e d f o r c e s c a n d o o t h e r t h a n a t t e m p t t o c r u s h B o k o H a r a m m i l i t a r i l y . I n d e e d , i t w a s t h e f e d e r a l a u t h o r i t i e s ’ s u s t a i n e d f a i l u r e t o b e t t e r a d d r e s s t h e n o r t h ’ s n u m e r o u s , s e r i o u s s o c i o e c o n o m i c p r o b l e m s t h a t a t l e a s t c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e e m e r g e n c e a n d r a d i c a l i z a t i o n o f B o k o H a r a m i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . 1 5

T h e s e c o n d c o n c e r n i s o v e r A b u j a ’ s a b i l i t y t o f u r t h e r e s c a l a t e i t s c a m p a i g n i f i t n e e d s t o . I n a d d i t i o n t o i t s d e c l a r a t i o n o f t h e s t a t e s o f e m e r g e n c y , t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s i n c r e a s e d d e f e n s e s p e n d i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y o v e r t h e p a s t e i g h t y e a r s w i t h m o s t o f t h e

e x t r a m o n e y s p e n t o n t h e c o u n t e r B o k o H a r a m c a m p a i g n . 1 6 W h i l e t h i s a c t i o n p r o v i d e s f u r t h e r c o n f i r m a t i o n o f t h e g o v e r n m e n t ’ s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o c o n f r o n t t h e g r o u p , t h e p a l p a b l e l a c k o f p r o g r e s s i s c o n c e r n i n g . N o t o n l y h a v e t h e b o l s t e r e d s e c u r i t y f o r c e s f a i l e d t o g a i n a d e c i s i v e a d v a n t a g e , b u t t h e y h a v e a l s o f a i l e d t o g r e a t l y r e d u c e B o k o H a r a m ’ s f r e e d o m t o a c t o r a b i l i t y t o c o n t i n u e d e v e l o p i n g i t s a r m e d c a m p a i g n . W i t h d e f e n s e s p e n d i n g s e t t o n o w f a l l , w h a t

15 Akinola Olojo, “Nigeria’s Trouble North: Interrogat-

ing the Drivers of Public Support for Boko Haram,” ICCT

Research Paper, October 2013, p. 6.

16 “Nigerian Defence Spending to Fall for the First Time

in a Decade,” IHS Jane’s 360, January 8, 2014.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“There is a more worrying reason why the federal government’s response to Boko Haram is mainly kinetic: it possesses neither the means nor the inclination to respond in other ways.”

“This question makes the federal government’s unwillingness to work more closely with the United States and the United Kingdom even more concerning since these and other international partners could provide valuable if not decisive assistance.”

17

m o r e c a n A b u j a d o t o t u r n t h e t i d e o f w a r i n i t s f a v o r ? 1 7 T h i s q u e s t i o n m a k e s t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o w o r k m o r e c l o s e l y w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m e v e n m o r e c o n c e r n i n g s i n c e t h e s e a n d o t h e r

i n t e r n a t i o n a l p a r t n e r s c o u l d p r o v i d e v a l u a b l e i f n o t d e c i s i v e a s s i s t a n c e . 1 8 O n e o f t h e w a y s i n w h i c h t h e s e p o w e r s c o u l d h e l p A b u j a i s b y f a c i l i t a t i n g c l o s e r r e g i o n a l c o l l a b o r a t i o n .

T h e t h i r d m a j o r c o n c e r n i s t h e l o w l e v e l o f s e c u r i t y c o o p e r a t i o n b e t w e e n N i g e r i a a n d i t s i m m e d i a t e n e i g h b o r s . O v e r t h e p a s t f o u r y e a r s , B o k o H a r a m u n i t s h a v e b e e n a c t i v e l y e n g a g e d i n C a m e r o o n , M a l i a n d N i g e r , a n d t h e g r o u p c o n t i n u e s t o r e c r u i t n e w m e m b e r s f r o m e a c h o f t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . 1 9 I n d e e d , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t s o m e o f t h e m i s s i n g C h i b o k s c h o o l g i r l s a r e b e i n g h e l d i n n o r t h e r n C a m e r o o n . 2 0 B o k o H a r a m ’ s a b i l i t y t o

17 Ibid.

18 It is not entirely clear why Abuja is unwilling to work

more closely with either the United States or the United

Kingdom. Likely reasons include national pride and a

possible reluctance to expose the Nigerian military’s

operating practices to closer scrutiny. Certainly Nige-

ria’s army has been heavily criticized on occasion for its

heavy and indiscriminate use of force. See “Nigeria: Mili-

tary Raid Destroys Villages and Kills Rebels, Witnesses

Say,” New York Times, December 24, 2013. Nevertheless,

the Nigerian armed forces have, in the past, proved their

willingness to work with international partners espe-

cially other African states. See Jon Hill, “To Survive or

Lead? The Two Sides of Nigeria’s National Security,” in

Andrew M. Dorman and Joyce P. Kaufman, Providing for

National Security (Stanford: Stanford University Press,

2014).

19 “Fears in Cameroon of Boko Haram Recruitment,” In-

tegrated Regional Information Networks, April 16, 2014.

20 “Chibok Abductions: Nigeria Girls ‘Taken Abroad,’”

BBC, April 29, 2014.

e x p l o i t n a t i o n a l b o r d e r s h a s e n a b l e d i t s l e a d e r s a n d f o r c e s t o p l a n , p r e p a r e a n d r e c u p e r a t e i n r e l a t i v e s a f e t y , a n d a v o i d d e t e c t i o n a n d n e u t r a l i z a t i o n b y N i g e r i a ’ s s e c u r i t y f o r c e s . Y e t t h e r e a r e t h r e e m a j o r i m p e d i m e n t s t o g r e a t e r r e g i o n a l c o l l a b o r a t i o n . T h e f i r s t a r e t h e i n a d e q u a t e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f s o m e c o u n t r i e s . N i g e r , f o r e x a m p l e , i s p o o r l y e q u i p p e d t o m e e t t h e t h r e a t . 2 1 T h e s e c o n d i s t h e a b s e n c e o f p r o p e r l y d e v e l o p e d m e c h a n i s m s t o e n a b l e s u c h c o l l a b o r a t i o n t o o c c u r . 2 2 T h e t h i r d i s c u l t u r a l : t h e p r o v e n r e l u c t a n c e o f N i g e r i a ’ s v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s t o w o r k w i t h e a c h o t h e r , l e t a l o n e w i t h t h o s e o f o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . 2 3

T h e f i n a l s i g n i f i c a n t f l a w i n t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y i s i t s c o n f u s i o n w i t h N i g e r i a ’ s n o r t h - s o u t h p o l i t i c s . S i n c e t h e r e s t o r a t i o n o f c i v i l i a n r u l e i n 1 9 9 9 , p o l i t i c a l l i f e h a s b e e n g u i d e d b y t h e u n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n v e n t i o n o f p o w e r - s h a r i n g a n d r o t a t i o n . 2 4 A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s a g r e e m e n t , t h e p r e s i d e n t a n d o t h e r s e n i o r g o v e r n m e n t m e m b e r s m u s t b e r e p l a c e d b y c a n d i d a t e s f r o m o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y . Y e t e v e r s i n c e P r e s i d e n t U m a r u Y a r a d u a ’ s u n t i m e l y d e a t h i n M a y 2 0 1 0 , t h i s c o n v e n t i o n h a s b e e n i n d i s a r r a y t o t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e u n h a p p i n e s s o f m a n y n o r t h e r n e r s w h o f e e l t h a t o n e o f t h e i r o w n s h o u l d b e p r e s i d e n t r a t h e r t h a n t h e s o u t h e r n e r G o o d l u c k J o n a t h a n . 2 5 D o m e s t i c a n a l y s i s o f a n d o f f i c i a l s t a t e m e n t s a b o u t B o k o H a r a m c a n n o t b e s e p a r a t e d f r o m n o r t h e r n o p p o s i t i o n t o J o n a t h a n ’ s p r e s i d e n c y , a s e v e n t s l i k e t h e a b d u c t i o n o f t h e C h i b o k s c h o o l g i r l s a r e h e a v i l y p o l i t i c i z e d t o a t t a c k o r d e f e n d P r e s i d e n t J o n a t h a n ’ s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .

21 “Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram

Insurgency,” p. i.

22 Mechanisms such as properly established and re-

sourced headquarters and their necessary staff.

23 “Army, Police Clash in Minna,” Daily Times, Decem-

ber 20, 2013.

24 The rotation of power between politicians from differ-

ent regions is established practice but is not required by

the constitution. In fact, it is anti-constitutional as Nige-

rian voters should be free to select whomever they chose

regardless of which region they come from. See J.N.C.

Hill, Nigeria Since Independence: Forever Fragile? (Basing-

stoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), pp. 58-59.

25 This regional divide also mirrors Nigeria’s main re-

ligious divide as the northerners are predominantly

Muslim and southerners Christian. There are, however,

significant numbers of Christians living in the north and

Muslims in the south.

A t t h e v e r y l e a s t , t h e r e f o r e , t h i s n o r t h - s o u t h r i v a l r y u n d e r m i n e s t r u s t b e t w e e n t h e p r e s i d e n c y a n d t h e n o r t h e r n s t a t e g o v e r n o r s a n d m i l i t a r y c o m m a n d e r s . 2 6

Conclusion D u r i n g t h e p a s t t h r e e m o n t h s , h u n d r e d s o f p e o p l e h a v e b e e n k i d n a p p e d f r o m t h e i r h o m e s i n a s e r i e s o f r a i d s m o u n t e d b y B o k o H a r a m . T h e a b d u c t i o n s h a v e g e n e r a t e d a g r e a t d e a l o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n c e r n , n o t l e a s t b e c a u s e t h e y r a i s e s e r i o u s q u e s t i o n s a b o u t t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e N i g e r i a n f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ’ s c o u n t e r t e r r o r i s m s t r a t e g y . I n d e e d , a n d c o n t r a r y t o a t l e a s t s o m e o f f i c i a l r e p o r t s , t h e w a r a g a i n s t B o k o H a r a m i s n o t g o i n g w e l l . B o k o H a r a m i s n o t o n t h e c u s p o f d e f e a t b u t c o n t i n u e s t o m o u n t a t t a c k s a n d e v o l v e . W i t h o u t a c l e a r a n d c o n s i s t e n t p o l i t i c a l a n d m i l i t a r y s t r a t e g y , N i g e r i a ’ s f o r c e s w i l l s t r u g g l e a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l a n d t a c t i c a l l e v e l s .

D r . J . N . C . H i l l i s R e a d e r i n P o s t c o l o n i a l i s m a n d t h e M a g h r e b i n t h e D e f e n c e S t u d i e s D e p a r t m e n t a t K i n g ’ s C o l l e g e L o n d o n b a s e d a t t h e U K ’ s J o i n t S e r v i c e s C o m m a n d a n d S t a f f C o l l e g e . H e h a s p u b l i s h e d w i d e l y o n A l g e r i a , t h e M a g h r e b a n d N i g e r i a . H i s b o o k N i g e r i a s i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e : F o r e v e r F r a g i l e ? w a s a w i n n e r o f t h e C H O I C E O u t s t a n d i n g A c a d e m i c T i t l e s f o r 2 0 1 3 .

26 These tensions have been fueled by accusations of

collusion between northern politicians, most notably Ali

Modu Sheriff, and Boko Haram. See “Curbing Violence

in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency,” p. 11.

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

“Boko Haram is not on the cusp of defeat but continues to mount attacks and evolve. Without a clear and consistent political and military strategy, Nigeria’s forces will struggle at the operational and tactical levels.”

18

Contrasting the Leadership of Mullah Fazlullah and Khan Said Sajna in Pakistan

By Daud Khattak

since its formation i n 2 0 0 7 , T e h r i k - i - T a l i b a n P a k i s t a n ( T T P ) , o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e P a k i s t a n i T a l i b a n , h a s e x e c u t e d h u n d r e d s o f d o m e s t i c a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n . I n t e r n a l d i f f e r e n c e s h a v e l o n g e x i s t e d w i t h i n t h e T T P o v e r i s s u e s o f c l a n , t r i b e , i d e o l o g y a n d n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s r e m a i n e d p r i v a t e w h i l e t h e T T P ’ s f o u n d e r , B a i t u l l a h M e h s u d , w a s i n c o m m a n d . Y e t w h e n a U . S . d r o n e s t r i k e k i l l e d B a i t u l l a h i n A u g u s t 2 0 0 9 , s o m e o f t h e T T P ’ s p r i v a t e d i s p u t e s b e c a m e p u b l i c a f t e r t w o T T P l e a d e r s — H a k i m u l l a h M e h s u d a n d W a l i u r R a h m a n M e h s u d — t e m p o r a r i l y c l a s h e d o v e r t h e i s s u e o f s u c c e s s i o n . 1 E v e n t u a l l y , t h e A f g h a n T a l i b a n r e p o r t e d l y i n t e r v e n e d , 2 a n d t h e t w o l e a d e r s a g r e e d t o s h a r e p o w e r , w i t h W a l i u r R a h m a n r e l e g a t e d t o H a k i m u l l a h ’ s d e p u t y . I n 2 0 1 3 , a U . S . d r o n e s t r i k e k i l l e d b o t h W a l i u r R a h m a n M e h s u d a n d H a k i m u l l a h M e s h e d i n a s i x - m o n t h p e r i o d . A s a r e s u l t , i n t e r n a l d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n t h e T T P r e e m e r g e d . A f t e r W a l i u r R a h m a n ’ s d e a t h i n M a y 2 0 1 3 , K h a n S a i d “ S a j n a , ” R a h m a n ’ s d e p u t y , d e c l a r e d h i m s e l f t h e l e a d e r o f R a h m a n ’ s f a c t i o n , y e t h e r e p o r t e d l y t o o k t h i s a c t i o n w i t h o u t t h e c o n s e n t o f T T P c h i e f H a k i m u l l a h M e h s u d . 3 A f t e r H a k i m u l l a h ’ s o w n d e a t h l a t e r t h a t y e a r , t h e K h a n S a i d f a c t i o n e x p e c t e d t o t a k e o v e r t h e r e i n s o f t h e T T P l e a d e r s h i p , b u t t h e T T P ’ s shura ( c o u n c i l ) i n s t e a d a p p o i n t e d M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h , a p r o m i n e n t n o n - M e h s u d P a k i s t a n i T a l i b a n c o m m a n d e r , i n N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 .

F a z l u l l a h ’ s e l e v a t i o n t o t h e t o p p o s i t i o n i n t h e T T P p r o v e d t h e f i n a l s t r a w f o r K h a n S a i d a n d h i s s u p p o r t e r s . T T P f i g h t e r s f r o m t h e M e h s u d t r i b e , w h o m o s t l y s u p p o r t e d K h a n S a i d ’ s b i d f o r T T P l e a d e r s h i p , s h o w e d t h e i r

1 “Wali ur-Rehman: Senior Taliban Commander,” Inde-

pendent, June 1, 2013.

2 Personal interview, Mushtaq Yusufzai, Peshawar-

based journalist, June 8, 2014.

3 Nader Buneri, “Taliban Infighting Picks Up,” The Na-

tion, April 11, 2014.

d i s a p p r o v a l b y w i t h d r a w i n g f r o m T T P o p e r a t i o n s . 4 I n e a r l y 2 0 1 4 , K h a n S a i d ’ s f a c t i o n e n g a g e d i n c l a s h e s a n d r e t a l i a t o r y a s s a s s i n a t i o n s w i t h F a z l u l l a h l o y a l i s t s , i n c l u d i n g s o m e T a l i b a n m e m b e r s f r o m t h e M e h s u d t r i b e l e d b y S h e h r i y a r M e h s u d . 5 I n a b i d t o p u t a n e n d t o m o n t h s o f T T P i n f i g h t i n g a n d t o p r e v e n t K h a n S a i d f r o m t i g h t e n i n g h i s g r i p o v e r t h e M e h s u d T a l i b a n , F a z l u l l a h f o r m a l l y s a c k e d K h a n S a i d a n d h a n d e d o v e r t h e c o m m a n d o f b o t h N o r t h a n d S o u t h W a z i r i s t a n t o T T P M o h m a n d c h i e f O m a r K h a l i d K h u r a s a n i , a n o t h e r n o n - M e h s u d T T P c o m m a n d e r , i n M a y 2 0 1 4 . 6

O n M a y 2 8 , 2 0 1 4 , K h a n S a i d ’ s f a c t i o n o f f i c i a l l y a n n o u n c e d t h e i r w i t h d r a w a l f r o m t h e T T P . K h a n S a i d ’ s s p o k e s m a n d e n o u n c e d t h e T T P f o r t h e i r a t t a c k s o n c i v i l i a n s , k i d n a p p i n g s , e x t o r t i o n , a n d f o r t a r g e t i n g P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t i n s t a l l a t i o n s . S i n c e t h i s f o r m a l s p l i t , t h e F a z l u l l a h - l e d T T P d e r i v e s t h e m a j o r i t y o f i t s s u p p o r t f r o m t h e t r i b a l a r e a s a n d c i t i e s , b u t K h a n S a i d h a s g a i n e d c o n t r o l o f t h e c o r e b a s e o f s u p p o r t e r s i n t h e W a z i r i s t a n r e g i o n . 7

T h i s a r t i c l e f o c u s e s o n t h e b r o a d e r i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s s p l i t b y d i s c u s s i n g t h e p o s i t i o n s o f F a z l u l l a h a n d K h a n S a i d o n P a k i s t a n a n d A f g h a n i s t a n , t h e i r p o l i c y t o w a r d n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h P a k i s t a n , a n d t h e i r a f f i l i a t i o n w i t h g r o u p s s u c h a s a l - Q a ` i d a , t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k , a n d s e c t a r i a n j i h a d i s t o u t f i t s .

Position on Afghanistan/Pakistan A f t e r e s c a p i n g t h e m a s s i v e P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n i n S w a t i n 2 0 0 9 , M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h , a l s o k n o w n a s “ F M M u l l a h ” f o r h i s i l l e g a l F M r a d i o c h a n n e l , h a s r e p o r t e d l y b e e n h i d i n g

4 Personal interview, Sailab Mehsud, Waziristan-based

journalist, June 7, 2014. Sailab Mehsud belongs to the

same Mehsud tribe and is respected among Taliban cir-

cles as a result of his more than three decades of reporting

from the area.

5 “Finally, Taliban Split into Factions,” Daily Times, May

29, 2014.

6 “Fazlullah Sacks Top Commander to Stop Tribal In-

fighting,” Reuters, May 10, 2014; “Fazlullah Sacks Sajna

as TTP Chief of SWA,” The News International, May 10,

2014.

7 The TTP draws most of its support from the Mehsud

tribe, and since Khan Said is also from the Mehsud (un-

like Fazlullah), he enjoys more support within the TTP.

i n A f g h a n i s t a n ’ s m o u n t a i n o u s e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s o f K u n a r a n d N u r i s t a n . 8

A s t a u n c h c r i t i c o f t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t , M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h o f t e n d e n o u n c e d t h e P a k i s t a n i s t a t e , i t s p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m a n d p o l i t i c i a n s , c a l l e d t h e P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a r y a n “ a r m y o f i n f i d e l s , ” a n d s u p p o r t e d t h e u s e o f v i o l e n c e t o i m p l e m e n t S h a r i ` a l a w i n P a k i s t a n . F a z l u l l a h b o l d l y c l a i m e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r k i l l i n g t h e c o m m a n d e r f o r t h e S w a t V a l l e y , M a j o r - G e n e r a l S a n a u l l a h K h a n N i a z i , i n a r o a d s i d e b o m b i n S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 . 9 F a z l u l l a h ’ s a i d e a n d c h i e f o f t h e T T P i n M o h m a n d t r i b a l d i s t r i c t , A b d u l W a l i ( a l s o k n o w n a s O m a r K h a l i d K h u r a s a n i ) , r e g u l a r l y i s s u e s s t a t e m e n t s s t r e s s i n g t h e n e e d f o r a r m e d s t r u g g l e t o r e m o v e P a k i s t a n ’ s “ i n f i d e l ” r u l e r s .

K h a n S a i d , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , r e c e n t l y c o n d e m n e d t h e F a z l u l l a h - l e d T T P f o r i t s a t t a c k s a g a i n s t t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t a n d s e c u r i t y f o r c e s . A l t h o u g h K h a n S a i d w a s t h e a l l e g e d m a s t e r m i n d o f t h e s p e c t a c u l a r j a i l b r e a k i n D e r a I s m a i l K h a n c i t y a n d t h e a t t a c k o n a P a k i s t a n A i r F o r c e b a s e i n K a r a c h i i n 2 0 1 1 , 1 0 h e h a s n o t e x e c u t e d a n y s i m i l a r a t t a c k s i n P a k i s t a n s i n c e h e t o o k o v e r l e a d e r s h i p o f t h e M e h s u d f a c t i o n o f t h e T T P i n 2 0 1 3 — i n w h a t m a n y v i e w a s a c h a n g e i n t a r g e t i n g s t r a t e g y . A f t e r K h a n S a i d c o n d e m n e d t h e T T P f o r k i l l i n g s , k i d n a p p i n g s , e x t o r t i o n a n d a n n o u n c e d h i s s e p a r a t i o n f r o m t h e T T P u m b r e l l a o u t f i t i n M a y 2 0 1 4 , s o m e c o n s i d e r e d h i s g r o u p r e l a t i v e m o d e r a t e s w h o f a v o r p e a c e t a l k s w i t h t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t . 1 1 K h a n S a i d ’ s p r e d e c e s s o r , W a l i u r R a h m a n , w h o w a s a m e m b e r o f t h e r e l i g i o u s p a r t y J a m i a t U l e m a - e - I s l a m ( J U I ) b e f o r e t a k i n g u p a r m s w i t h t h e P a k i s t a n i T a l i b a n , w a s a l s o c o n s i d e r e d a r e l a t i v e m o d e r a t e c o m p a r e d t o o t h e r s i n t h e T T P l e a d e r s h i p . 1 2

8 Qasim Nauman and Safdar Dawar, “Militants Attack

Pakistani Troops,” Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2014;

Declan Walsh, “Pakistani Taliban Pick Hard-Liner as

Leader, Imperiling Proposed Peace Talks,” New York

Times, November 7, 2013.

9 Amir Mir, “Fazlullah Has Mulla Omar’s Backing,” The

News International, November 8, 2013.

10 “Sources: Pakistani Taliban Chooses New Second-In-

Command,” RFE/RL, May 30, 2013.

11 M. Ilyas Khan, “Pakistan Violence: Mehsud Faction

Walks Out of Taliban,” BBC, May 28 2014.

12 “Wali-ur-Rehman to Replace Hakimullah Mehsud as

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

19

A l t h o u g h M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h w a s o n e o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 v o l u n t e e r s w h o c r o s s e d i n t o A f g h a n i s t a n t o f i g h t U . S . - l e d f o r c e s i n s u p p o r t o f t h e T a l i b a n i n l a t e 2 0 0 1 , h e h a s n o t i s s u e d a n y s t a t e m e n t s a g a i n s t t h e A f g h a n g o v e r n m e n t o r t h e U . S . p r e s e n c e i n A f g h a n i s t a n s i n c e h e w a s f o r c e d t o f l e e P a k i s t a n i n m i d - 2 0 0 9 d u r i n g a m a j o r P a k i s t a n i m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n i n S w a t . F a z l u l l a h ’ s r e c e n t s i l e n c e o n t h e i s s u e , a n d h i s r e p o r t e d b a s e i n e a s t e r n A f g h a n i s t a n , i s o n e r e a s o n t h a t P a k i s t a n ’ s g o v e r n m e n t h a s a l l e g e d t h a t t h e A f g h a n g o v e r n m e n t i s p r o v i d i n g s a n c t u a r i e s a n d s u p p o r t t o M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h . 1 3 I n s e v e r a l m e e t i n g s t h a t t o o k p l a c e b e t w e e n t o p P a k i s t a n i a n d A f g h a n o f f i c i a l s i n J u n e 2 0 1 4 , o n e o f t h e k e y d e m a n d s f r o m t h e P a k i s t a n i s i d e w a s f o r t h e i r A f g h a n c o u n t e r p a r t s t o t a k e a c t i o n a g a i n s t M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h . 1 4

I n c o n t r a s t t o F a z l u l l a h , K h a n S a i d ’ s g r o u p s u p p o r t s a t t a c k s i n A f g h a n i s t a n , a n d h a s j o i n e d h a n d s w i t h o t h e r g r o u p s s u c h a s t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k , H a f i z G u l B a h a d a r ’ s f a c t i o n , a n d s o m e f a c t i o n s i n t h e P u n j a b i T a l i b a n t o c a r r y o u t a t t a c k s i n s i d e A f g h a n i s t a n . 1 5

Peace Talks with Pakistan D e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t F a z l u l l a h ’ s b r a n c h o f t h e T T P e n g a g e d i n n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t t h r o u g h p r o - T a l i b a n c l e r i c S a m i u l H a q e a r l i e r i n 2 0 1 4 , F a z l u l l a h h i m s e l f n e v e r i s s u e d a p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t s u p p o r t i n g t h e t a l k s . I n s t e a d , h i s c l o s e a i d e O m a r K h a l i d , w h o w a s a g a i n s t t h e t a l k s f r o m t h e s t a r t , 1 6 i s s u e d s t a t e m e n t s o p p o s i n g t h e p e a c e t a l k s w h i l e t h e p r o c e s s w a s u n d e r w a y . F a z l u l l a h ’ s T T P e v e n v i o l a t e d t h e s o - c a l l e d m o n t h - l o n g c e a s e - f i r e b y k i l l i n g n e a r l y t w o d o z e n k i d n a p p e d P a k i s t a n i p a r a m i l i t a r y s o l d i e r s , s h o w i n g t h e i r b e h e a d e d b o d i e s o n c a m e r a . 1 7 T h e a c t

TTP Head,” Reuters, December 6, 2012.

13 Yaroslav Trofimov, “Mullah Fazlullah’s Rise Compli-

cates Ties Between Kabul, Islamabad,” Wall Street Jour-

nal, November 13, 2013.

14 “Winning the War,” Express Tribune, June 28, 2014; K.

Iqbal, “Border Management: The Right Focus,” The Na-

tion, July 7, 2014.

15 Saeed Shah, “Pakistani Taliban Faction Condemns

Violence, Breaks Away,” Wall Street Journal, May 28,

2014.

16 The talks still proceeded because several TTP shura

members wanted to engage in peace talks.

17 Zahir Shah Sherazi, “Mohmand Taliban Claim Killing

23 FC Men,” Dawn, February 17, 2014.

w a s s e e n a s a d e l i b e r a t e m o v e o n p a r t o f O m a r K h a l i d t o s c u t t l e t h e p e a c e t a l k s .

O n t h e P a k i s t a n A r m y ’ s l i s t o f s o - c a l l e d “ b a d T a l i b a n , ” c o m m a n d e r s l i k e M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h a n d O m a r K h a l i d a r e c o n s i d e r e d t h e m o s t d a n g e r o u s . A l t h o u g h t h e P a k i s t a n A r m y , u n d e r p r e s s u r e f r o m t h e e l e c t e d g o v e r n m e n t , h a d a g r e e d t o t h e n o w f a i l e d p e a c e t a l k s w i t h t h e T T P , t h e m i l i t a r y l e a d e r s h i p h a d s e r i o u s r e s e r v a t i o n s a b o u t M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h , a n o f f i c i a l s o u r c e i n I s l a m a b a d t o l d t h i s a u t h o r . “ F a z l u l l a h a n d O m a r K h a l i d w e r e n o t g o i n g t o g e t a m n e s t y e v e n i f t h e g o v e r n m e n t a n d T a l i b a n h a d a g r e e d f o r a h a n d - s h a k e a s a r e s u l t o f t h e n o w f a i l e d p e a c e t a l k s , ” s a i d t h e o f f i c i a l . 1 8

K h a n S a i d a n d h i s f a c t i o n , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , h a v e b e e n i n f a v o r o f p e a c e t a l k s a n d r e c e n t l y o p p o s e d a t t a c k s o n P a k i s t a n i s e c u r i t y f o r c e s , g o v e r n m e n t a n d c i v i l a n d m i l i t a r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s . 1 9 I n a s t a t e m e n t i n M a y 2 0 1 4 , a s p o k e s m a n f o r K h a n S a i d ’ s g r o u p , A z a m T a r i q , s a i d t h a t “ w e c o n s i d e r t h e b o m b i n g o f p u b l i c p l a c e s , e x t o r t i o n a n d k i d n a p p i n g u n - I s l a m i c , a n d s i n c e t h e T T P l e a d e r s c o n t i n u e d w i t h t h e s e p r a c t i c e s , w e d e c i d e d w e s h o u l d n o t s h a r e t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . ” 2 0

Position on Al-Qa`ida, the Haqqani Network and Sectarian Militant Groups A f t e r t h e U . S . - l e d i n v a s i o n o f A f g h a n i s t a n i n 2 0 0 1 , t h e M e h s u d t r i b e s m e n i n P a k i s t a n p l a y e d h o s t t o a l - Q a ` i d a a n d l a t e r m i l i t a n t g r o u p s s u c h a s t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k i n N o r t h a n d S o u t h W a z i r i s t a n . A f t e r t h e T T P w a s f o r m e d i n 2 0 0 7 , t h e g r o u p p r o v i d e d t h e s e f i g h t e r s s u p p o r t a n d s a n c t u a r i e s . Y e t y e a r s o f s u c c e s s i v e U . S . d r o n e s t r i k e s h a v e r e d u c e d a l - Q a ` i d a ’ s p r e s e n c e i n t h e W a z i r i s t a n a r e a .

K h a n S a i d a n d h i s g r o u p h a v e c l o s e t i e s t o t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k a n d t h e P u n j a b i T a l i b a n . 2 1 S e v e r a l A r a b

18 Personal interview, Pakistani government official,

July 2014.

19 Khan

20 Sailab Mahsud, “Key Group Breaks Away from TTP,”

Dawn, May 29, 2014.

21 After parting ways with the TTP, Khan Said came into

the fold of the so-called “good Taliban.” The Haqqani

network and Gul Bahadar are also considered members

of the “good Taliban,” from Pakistan’s perspective. They

m i l i t a n t s b e l o n g i n g t o a l - Q a ` i d a a s w e l l a s l e a d e r s o f t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k w e r e t a r g e t e d i n U . S . d r o n e s t r i k e s i n N o r t h W a z i r i s t a n , a n a r e a u n d e r t h e c o n t r o l o f t h e T T P a n d c o m m a n d e r s l i k e K h a n S a i d a n d H a f i z G u l B a h a d a r . M o r e o v e r , o t h e r s h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e H a q q a n i n e t w o r k h a s p r o v i d e d f u n d i n g t o K h a n S a i d ’ s f a c t i o n , a s t h e H a q q a n i s h o p e t o r e c r u i t m o r e M e h s u d f i g h t e r s f o r t h e w a r i n n e i g h b o r i n g A f g h a n i s t a n . 2 2

F a z l u l l a h a l s o h o s t e d a l - Q a ` i d a l e a d e r s a n d s y m p a t h i z e r s d u r i n g h i s d a y s i n S w a t b e f o r e 2 0 0 9 . Y e t s i n c e i t i s b e l i e v e d h e n o w o p e r a t e s a c r o s s t h e b o r d e r i n A f g h a n i s t a n , a n d a l l e g e d l y w i t h t h e t a c i t s u p p o r t o f A f g h a n i n t e l l i g e n c e , 2 3 i t s e e m s u n l i k e l y t h a t h e w o u l d h a v e a l - Q a ` i d a l e a d e r s i n h i s c i r c l e s d u e t o t h e r i s k s i n v o l v e d i n o p e r a t i n g i n A f g h a n t e r r i t o r y . F a z l u l l a h ’ s c o m m a n d e r i n t h e M o h m a n d a r e a , O m a r K h a l i d K h u r a s a n i , h o w e v e r , h a s o p e n l y c a l l e d U s a m a b i n L a d i n h i s l e a d e r a n d h a s c a l l e d f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l j i h a d i s t a t t a c k s . 2 4

B o t h l e a d e r s a r e h a r d l i n e D e o b a n d i s , b u t F a z l u l l a h i s m o r e i n c l i n e d t o w a r d S a l a f i s m , a p p a r e n t l y d u e t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f h i s f a t h e r - i n - l a w , t h e c l e r i c S u f i M u h a m m a d , w h o f o u n d e d t h e h a r d l i n e r g r o u p T e h r e e k - e - N a f a z - e - S h a r i a t - e - M o h a m m a d i ( M o v e m e n t f o r t h e E n f o r c e m e n t o f S h a r i ` a L a w , T N S M ) i n t h e M a l a k a n d r e g i o n i n n o r t h e r n P a k i s t a n i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 9 0 s . 2 5 S u f i M u h a m m a d l e d a r a g - t a g a r m y o f v o l u n t e e r s t o f i g h t a l o n g s i d e t h e T a l i b a n f o l l o w i n g t h e U . S . - l e d a t t a c k o n A f g h a n i s t a n i n l a t e 2 0 0 1 . M a n y o f h i s f i g h t e r s w e r e k i l l e d , o t h e r s w e r e c a p t u r e d b y t h e f o r c e s o f t h e N o r t h e r n A l l i a n c e , w h i l e S u f i M u h a m m a d a n d h i s s o n - i n - l a w F a z l u l l a h w e r e a r r e s t e d b y

do not carry out attacks inside Pakistan, as their focus

is Afghanistan. For more, see Qaiser Butt, “Situationer:

Sajna’s Departure Likely to Exacerbate Divisions within

TTP,” Express Tribune, May 29, 2014.

22 Declan Walsh, “Fractured State of Pakistani Taliban

Calls Peace Deal into Question,” New York Times, April

20, 2014.

23 Michael Georgy and Matthew Green, “Pakistan Ac-

cuses Afghanistan of Backing Taliban Enemy,” Reuters,

August 5, 2012.

24 Amir Mir, “Journalist-Turned-Militant Khurasani

Wants to Seize Nukes, Topple Govt,” The News Interna-

tional, February 18, 2014.

25 Hassan Abbas, “The Black-Turbaned Brigade: The

Rise of TNSM in Pakistan,” Terrorism Monitor 4:23

(2006).

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

20

t h e P a k i s t a n i s e c u r i t y f o r c e s u p o n t h e i r r e e n t r y i n t o P a k i s t a n i t e r r i t o r y .

B o t h F a z l u l l a h a n d K h a n S a i d h a v e n e v e r d e n o u n c e d s e c t a r i a n k i l l i n g s a n d b o t h l e a d e r s h a v e s u p p o r t e d s e c t a r i a n l e a d e r s a n d g r o u p s i n t h e p a s t .

Grassroots Support K h a n S a i d h a s s t r o n g r o o t s i n t h e M e h s u d t r i b e i n W a z i r i s t a n , a t e r r i t o r y t h a t s e r v e s a s t h e h e a d q u a r t e r s f o r v a r i o u s m i l i t a n t g r o u p s . K h a n S a i d , t h o u g h a v e t e r a n o f t h e A f g h a n j i h a d , n e v e r e n j o y e d t h e c h a r i s m a o f h i s r i v a l , F a z l u l l a h . I n f a c t , v e r y f e w p e o p l e o u t s i d e W a z i r i s t a n k n e w h i s n a m e b e f o r e h e s u c c e e d e d W a l i u r R a h m a n i n M a y 2 0 1 3 .

U n l i k e K h a n S a i d , F a z l u l l a h i s f r o m S w a t , a w e l l - d e v e l o p e d c i t y a n d t o u r i s t r e g i o n i n P a k i s t a n . M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h i s c o n s i d e r e d t o b e a m e d i a - s a v v y c o m m a n d e r . D u r i n g h i s d a y s i n S w a t , F a z l u l l a h i n t e r a c t e d o n a r e g u l a r b a s i s w i t h t h e l o c a l m e d i a .

F a z l u l l a h r a n a r a d i o s h o w w h i l e l i v i n g i n S w a t f r o m 2 0 0 7 u n t i l 2 0 0 9 , a n d b e c a m e a l o c a l h o u s e h o l d n a m e . A s a r e s u l t o f h i s c h a r i s m a t i c I s l a m i c s e r m o n s a n d d e m a g o g y , h e a c c r u e d t h o u s a n d s o f s u p p o r t e r s . T h e s e i n d i v i d u a l s , w h o w e r e n o t c o n n e c t e d t o m i l i t a n t s o r v i o l e n t j i h a d , d o n a t e d m o n e y a t F a z l u l l a h ’ s r e q u e s t t o c o n s t r u c t a l a r g e r e l i g i o u s c o m p l e x i n M a m D h e r i , F a z l u l l a h ’ s n a t i v e v i l l a g e , o n t h e r i v e r s i d e i n S w a t . 2 6 F o l l o w i n g h i s e s c a p e f r o m t h e r e g i o n i n 2 0 0 9 , h e i s b e l i e v e d t o h a v e l o s t a g r e a t d e a l o f l o c a l s u p p o r t . Conclusion A l t h o u g h s e v e r a l P a k i s t a n i a n a l y s t s h a v e i n t e r p r e t e d t h e r e c e n t f r a g m e n t a t i o n o f t h e T T P a s t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e e n d f o r t h e g r o u p , t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i s u n l i k e l y b e c a u s e K h a n S a i d i s o n l y l e a d i n g t h e M e h s u d T a l i b a n , w h i l e t h e r e s t o f t h e T T P i s s t i l l u n i t e d u n d e r t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h . 2 7

26 These details are based on the author’s own reporting

in the region throughout the years.

27 That being said, since the majority of the TTP is from

the Mehsud tribe, Khan Said likely enjoys more support

than Fazlullah in Waziristan, as Khan Said is a Mehsud,

while Fazlullah is not.

F a z l u l l a h c o n t i n u e s t o e n j o y t h e s u p p o r t o f t h e T T P c o r e l e a d e r s h i p i n M o h m a n d , O r a k z a i a n d B a j a u r t r i b a l a g e n c i e s , b e s i d e s s e v e r a l c i t i e s i n P a k i s t a n , i n c l u d i n g P e s h a w a r , M a r d a n , S w a b i a n d M a l a k a n d . K h a n S a i d ’ s s u p p o r t b a s e i s m o s t l y a m o n g t h e M e h s u d T a l i b a n i n p a r t s o f N o r t h a n d S o u t h W a z i r i s t a n a n d t h e n e a r b y d i s t r i c t s o f D e r a I s m a i l K h a n , B a n n u a n d T a n k . M o r e o v e r , d e s p i t e K h a n S a i d ’ s s e p a r a t i o n f r o m t h e T T P , s o m e M e h s u d t r i b e s m e n u n d e r t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f S h e h r i y a r M e h s u d a r e s t i l l s u p p o r t i n g F a z l u l l a h ’ s f a c t i o n . T h e n o w - f a i l e d p e a c e t a l k s , i n i t i a t e d b y t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t i n M a r c h 2 0 1 4 , f u r t h e r h i g h l i g h t e d t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e s e g r o u p s , a s t h e H a k i m u l l a h g r o u p o p p o s e d t h e t a l k s w h i l e K h a n S a i d ’ s f a c t i o n w a s s u p p o r t i v e . P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t e f f o r t s t o e n g a g e i n d i a l o g u e w i t h t h e s e g r o u p s , c o m b i n e d w i t h t r i b a l r i v a l r i e s o v e r l e a d e r s h i p , p l a y e d a r o l e i n t h e f i n a l d i v i s i o n o f t h e T T P .

T h e K h a n S a i d f a c t i o n i s n o w p a r t o f t h e s o - c a l l e d “ g o o d T a l i b a n , ” f r o m t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e P a k i s t a n i g o v e r n m e n t , a s h e i s p r e s e n t l y f o c u s e d o n a t t a c k s i n A f g h a n i s t a n a n d e l s e w h e r e a b r o a d . O t h e r m i l i t a n t f a c t i o n s p a r t o f t h e “ g o o d T a l i b a n ” i n c l u d e t h e H a q q a n i s , t h e H a f i z G u l B a h a d a r g r o u p a n d s o m e f a c t i o n s i n t h e P u n j a b i T a l i b a n , a s t h e y a r e m o s t l y f o c u s e d o n A f g h a n i s t a n o r I n d i a . S i n c e M u l l a h F a z l u l l a h i s h i d i n g i n A f g h a n i s t a n a n d m a n a g i n g m o s t o f t h e “ b a d T a l i b a n , ” s o m e a n a l y s t s h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e U . S . w i t h d r a w a l f r o m A f g h a n i s t a n c o u l d t r i g g e r a l i m i t e d p r o x y w a r b e t w e e n A f g h a n i s t a n a n d P a k i s t a n , w i t h e a c h c o u n t r y l e v e r a g i n g m i l i t a n t g r o u p s a g a i n s t t h e o t h e r ’ s i n t e r e s t s . 2 8

D a u d K h a t t a k i s S e n i o r E d i t o r f o r R a d i o F r e e E u r o p e / R a d i o L i b e r t y ’ s M a s h a a l R a d i o i n P r a g u e . B e f o r e j o i n i n g t h e P a s h t o l a n g u a g e s e r v i c e o f R F E / R L , M r . K h a t t a k w o r k e d f o r t h e S u n d a y T i m e s L o n d o n , T h e N e w s I n t e r n a t i o n a l a n d t h e D a i l y T i m e s i n P e s h a w a r a n d P a j h w o k A f g h a n N e w s i n K a b u l . H e w r o t e a r e s e a r c h p a p e r f o r t h e N e w A m e r i c a F o u n d a t i o n o n t h e r o o t s o f i n s u r g e n c y i n P a k i s t a n ’ s S w a t r e g i o n . T h e p a p e r w a s r e c e n t l y r e p u b l i s h e d b y O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s i n T a l i b a n i s t a n .

28 Trofimov; Walsh, “Fractured State of Pakistani Tali-

ban Calls Peace Deal into Question.”

Recent Highlights in Political Violence

J u n e 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( P H I L I P P I N E S ) : P h i l i p p i n e s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a r r e s t e d M i r a j i B a i r u l l a h ( a l s o k n o w n a s M a h a n g ) , w h o w a s w a n t e d f o r k i l l i n g t w o U . S . s e r v i c e m e n i n a r o a d s i d e b o m b o n J o l o i s l a n d i n S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 9 . B a i r u l l a h w a s b e l i e v e d t o b e a m e m b e r o f t h e M o r o N a t i o n a l L i b e r a t i o n F r o n t ( M N L F ) . – Reuters, June 2

J u n e 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : S u s p e c t e d B o k o H a r a m g u n m e n o p e n e d f i r e o n a c h u r c h s e r v i c e i n t h e r e m o t e A t t a n g a r a v i l l a g e i n n o r t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , k i l l i n g n i n e p e o p l e . – Reuters, June 2

J u n e 2 , 2 0 1 4 ( A F G H A N I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r k i l l e d t h r e e T u r k i s h c o n s t r u c t i o n w o r k e r s i n N a n g a r h a r P r o v i n c e . – Washington Post, June 2

J u n e 2 , 2 0 1 4 ( T U R K E Y ) : T u r k e y l i s t e d J a b h a t a l - N u s r a a s a t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n . T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s l i s t e d J a b h a t a l - N u s r a a s a t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n i n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 . – Hurriyet Daily News, June 3

J u n e 2 , 2 0 1 4 ( S A U D I A R A B I A ) : A l - Q a ` i d a i n t h e A r a b i a n P e n i n s u l a ( A Q A P ) s a i d t h a t t h e y e x e c u t e d f o u r m e n a c c u s e d o f p u t t i n g e l e c t r o n i c t r a c k i n g c h i p s i n v e h i c l e s t o h e l p U . S . d r o n e a i r c r a f t i d e n t i f y t a r g e t s . A c c o r d i n g t o R e u t e r s , “ T h e 2 8 - m i n u t e v i d e o s h o w e d w h a t A Q A P s a i d w e r e f o u r s p i e s c o n f e s s i n g t h a t t h e y h a d p l a n t e d d e v i c e s i n v e h i c l e s w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n t h e d e a t h s o f A Q A P f i g h t e r s t w o y e a r s a g o i n t h e s o u t h e r n S h a b w a P r o v i n c e . ” – Reuters, June 2

J u n e 2 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : B o k o H a r a m m i l i t a n t s w e a r i n g m i l i t a r y u n i f o r m s r e p o r t e d l y k i l l e d a t l e a s t 2 0 0 c i v i l i a n s i n t h r e e v i l l a g e s i n t h e G w o z a l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t d i s t r i c t i n B o r n o S t a t e i n n o r t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a . A s r e p o r t e d b y t h e A s s o c i a t e d P r e s s , “ T h e m i l i t a n t s a r r i v e d i n T o y o t a H i l u x p i c k u p t r u c k s — c o m m o n l y u s e d b y t h e m i l i t a r y — a n d t o l d t h e c i v i l i a n s t h e y w e r e s o l d i e r s ‘ a n d w e a r e h e r e t o p r o t e c t y o u a l l , ’ t h e s a m e t a c t i c u s e d b y t h e g r o u p w h e n t h e y k i d n a p p e d m o r e t h a n 3 0 0 g i r l s f r o m a s c h o o l i n t h e t o w n o f C h i b o k o n A p r i l 1 5 . A f t e r p e o p l e g a t h e r e d i n t h e c e n t e r o n t h e o r d e r s o f t h e m i l i t a n t s , ‘ t h e y b e g i n t o

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

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s h o u t A l l a h u A k b a r , A l l a h u A k b a r o n t o p o f t h e i r v o i c e s , t h e n t h e y b e g i n t o f i r e a t t h e p e o p l e c o n t i n u o u s l y f o r a v e r y l o n g t i m e u n t i l a l l t h a t g a t h e r e d w e r e a l l d e a d , ’ s a i d t h e w i t n e s s w h o d i d n ’ t w a n t t o b e n a m e d f o r f e a r f o r h i s s a f e t y . ” – AP, June 5

J u n e 3 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r k i l l e d M o h a m m e d K h a m i s A b u R i s h a , o n e o f t h e l e a d e r s o f I r a q ’ s p r o - g o v e r n m e n t S u n n i t r i b a l f i g h t e r s , i n R a m a d i , A n b a r P r o v i n c e . A c c o r d i n g t o R e u t e r s , h e w a s “ t o u r i n g a c h e c k p o i n t m a n n e d b y h i s f i g h t e r s i n R a m a d i w h e n a s u i c i d e b o m b e r h u g g e d h i m , s a i d o n e o f h i s m e n . F o u r o f A b u R i s h a ’ s b o d y g u a r d s w e r e k i l l e d i n t h e b l a s t . ” H e w a s t h e n e p h e w o f A h m e d A b u R i s h a , w h o i s t h e f o r m a l l e a d e r o f a l l p r o - g o v e r n m e n t S u n n i f i g h t e r s i n A n b a r P r o v i n c e . – Reuters, June 3

J u n e 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( G E R M A N Y ) : G e r m a n p r o s e c u t o r s b r o u g h t t e r r o r i s m c h a r g e s a g a i n s t t w o L e b a n e s e b r o t h e r s a n d a G e r m a n m a n w h o a r e a c c u s e d o f b e i n g i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e New York Times, “ G e r m a n a u t h o r i t i e s b e l i e v e s o m e 3 0 0 p e o p l e h a v e l e f t G e r m a n y f o r S y r i a s i n c e t h e c o n f l i c t b e g a n t h e r e , a n d t h e a u t h o r i t i e s w o r r y t h a t t h e d o z e n p e o p l e w h o t h e y s a y h a v e r e t u r n e d r a d i c a l i z e d p o s e a t h r e a t o f i n c r e a s e d t e r r o r i s m . O f f i c i a l s h a v e s a i d t h o s e w h o h a v e r e t u r n e d a r e c a p a b l e o f b u i l d i n g b o m b s a n d c a r r y i n g o u t a t t a c k s , a l t h o u g h t h e y h a v e n o i n d i c a t i o n s o f c o n c r e t e p l a n s . ” – New York Times, June 4

J u n e 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( L I B Y A ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n v e h i c l e t r i e d t o a s s a s s i n a t e K h a l i f a H a f t a r , a r o g u e L i b y a n g e n e r a l w h o i s l e a d i n g a n o f f e n s i v e a g a i n s t I s l a m i s t m i l i t i a s , i n B e n g h a z i . T h e e x p l o s i o n f a i l e d t o i n j u r e H a f t a r . – AP, June 4

J u n e 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A c a r b o m b k i l l e d a t l e a s t 1 4 p e o p l e n e a r a h o s p i t a l i n t h e p r e d o m i n a t e l y S h i ` a M u s l i m c i t y o f H i l l a . – Reuters, June 4

J u n e 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r t a r g e t e d a m i l i t a r y v e h i c l e n e a r I s l a m a b a d , k i l l i n g f i v e p e o p l e . T w o s e n i o r a r m y o f f i c e r s w e r e a m o n g t h e d e a d . – AFP, June 4

J u n e 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A s u s p e c t e d s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n j u r e d f o u r p e o p l e o u t s i d e a m o s q u e i n K a r a c h i . – The News International, June 5

J u n e 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( A F G H A N I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r t a r g e t e d a c o n v o y o f v e h i c l e s c a r r y i n g o n e o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n A f g h a n i s t a n ’ s p r e s i d e n t i a l r u n o f f e l e c t i o n . T h e e x p l o s i o n k i l l e d s i x p e o p l e , b u t t h e c a n d i d a t e , A b d u l l a h A b d u l l a h , w a s n o t i n j u r e d . T h e a t t a c k o c c u r r e d a s A b d u l l a h w a s t r a v e l i n g b e t w e e n h o t e l s i n K a b u l . T h e A f g h a n g o v e r n m e n t a l l e g e d t h a t “ a n i n t e l l i g e n c e a g e n c y o f a f o r e i g n c o u n t r y a n d L e T [ L a s h k a r - i - T a y y i b a ] ” w e r e i n v o l v e d i n t h e a t t a c k . – New York Times, June 6; Reuters, June 8

J u n e 7 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A t l e a s t 5 2 p e o p l e w e r e k i l l e d a f t e r a s e r i e s o f c a r b o m b s e x p l o d e d a c r o s s l a r g e l y S h i ` a n e i g h b o r h o o d s i n B a g h d a d . – Associated Press, June 7

J u n e 7 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t e n t e r e d a u n i v e r s i t y i n R a m a d i , k i l l i n g t h r e e p o l i c e m e n . T h e m i l i t a n t s r o u n d e d u p s t u d e n t s a n d s t a f f , b u t t h e y w e r e f o r c e d t o w i t h d r a w a f t e r t h e y c a m e u n d e r a t t a c k b y t h e I r a q i m i l i t a r y . – Telegraph, June 7

J u n e 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r p a r k e d a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n v e h i c l e n e a r t h e h e a d q u a r t e r s o f t h e P a t r i o t i c U n i o n o f K u r d i s t a n ( P U K ) p a r t y i n D i y a l a P r o v i n c e . A f t e r t h e c a r b o m b e x p l o d e d , t h e b o m b e r e n t e r e d t h e P U K b u i l d i n g a n d d e t o n a t e d h i s e x p l o s i v e s v e s t . A t l e a s t 1 8 p e o p l e w e r e k i l l e d . T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t , w h i c h t o o k r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e a t t a c k , c l a i m e d t h a t t w o s u i c i d e b o m b e r s w e r e i n v o l v e d . – Reuters, June 8

J u n e 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : A f e m a l e s u i c i d e b o m b e r k i l l e d a N i g e r i a n s o l d i e r o u t s i d e a n a r m y b a r r a c k s i n G o m b e , l o c a t e d i n n o r t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a . – Reuters, June 8

J u n e 8 - 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 0 g u n m e n d i s g u i s e d a s p o l i c e a t t a c k e d a t e r m i n a l a t J i n n a h I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t i n K a r a c h i , P a k i s t a n ’ s b u s i e s t a i r p o r t . T h e f i v e - h o u r s i e g e k i l l e d a t l e a s t 2 4 p e o p l e . A l l 1 0 m i l i t a n t s w e r e a l s o k i l l e d . T e h r i k - i - T a l i b a n P a k i s t a n c l a i m e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . – AP, June 8; CBS News, June 9

J u n e 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) , w h i c h u s e d t o b e p a r t o f a l - Q a ` i d a , s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f M o s u l , I r a q ’ s s e c o n d - l a r g e s t c i t y . A c c o r d i n g t o R F E / R L , I r a q i “ o f f i c i a l s s a i d d o z e n s o f h e a v i l y a r m e d i n s u r g e n t s s e i z e d t h e p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l ’ s h e a d q u a r t e r s , o c c u p i e d p o l i c e s t a t i o n s , o v e r r a n t h e a i r p o r t , a n d f r e e d p r i s o n e r s f r o m j a i l s . T h e g o v e r n o r o f t h e n o r t h e r n p r o v i n c e o f N i n a w a , A t h i l a l - N u j a i f i , s a i d t h e m i l i t a r y a n d p o l i c e f o r c e s a b a n d o n e d t h e i r p o s i t i o n s . ” R e s i d e n t s o f t h e c i t y s a i d t h a t b l a c k f l a g s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h j i h a d i s t g r o u p s w e r e n o w f l y i n g f r o m b u i l d i n g s i n M o s u l . – RFE/RL, June 10

J u n e 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A r o a d s i d e b o m b e x p l o d e d a t a p o l i c e c h e c k p o i n t i n T u z K h u r m a t o i n n o r t h e r n I r a q . A s u i c i d e b o m b e r t h e n d e t o n a t e d a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n t r u c k i n t h e s a m e l o c a t i o n . T h e t w o b l a s t s , w h i c h o c c u r r e d n e a r t h e o f f i c e o f P r e s i d e n t J a l a l T a l a b a n i ’ s P a t r i o t i c U n i o n o f K u r d i s t a n ( P U K ) p a r t y , k i l l e d 2 8 p e o p l e . – Channel News Asia, June 9

J u n e 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r r a m m e d a t r u c k i n t o a m i l i t a r y c h e c k p o i n t i n N o r t h W a z i r i s t a n A g e n c y i n t h e F e d e r a l l y A d m i n i s t e r e d T r i b a l A r e a s , k i l l i n g f o u r s o l d i e r s . – The News International, June 10

J u n e 1 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T w o b o m b s e x p l o d e d n e a r a f u n e r a l p r o c e s s i o n i n B a ` q u b a , D i y a l a P r o v i n c e , k i l l i n g 2 0 p e o p l e . – Independent, June 10

J u n e 1 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : T a l i b a n m i l i t a n t s a t t a c k e d s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a t J i n n a h I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t i n K a r a c h i , t h e s e c o n d t i m e i n t w o d a y s . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e New York Times, “ t h e a s s a u l t , i n w h i c h a t l e a s t t w o g u n m e n o p e n e d f i r e o n a g u a r d p o s t a t t h e a i r p o r t p e r i m e t e r , c a u s e d n o c a s u a l t i e s a n d e n d e d w i t h t h e g u n m e n f l e e i n g i n t o a n e a r b y s l u m . B y c o n t r a s t , a t l e a s t 3 6 p e o p l e d i e d i n t h e f i r s t a t t a c k o n S u n d a y [ J u n e 8 ] , w h i c h l a s t e d t h r o u g h t h e n i g h t . ” – New York Times, June 10

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) t o o k c o n t r o l o f T i k r i t , t h e h o m e t o w n o f f o r m e r I r a q i l e a d e r S a d d a m H u s s e i n . T h e m o v e c o m e s j u s t t w o d a y s a f t e r t h e I S I L s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f M o s u l , I r a q ’ s s e c o n d - l a r g e s t c i t y . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e Los Angeles Times, t h e I S I L h a s “ p u s h e d d e e p e r i n t o

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

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t h e h e a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y , t h r e a t e n i n g t o c r e a t e a n e x t r e m i s t ‘ p r o t o - s t a t e ’ i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t , s o m e t h i n g t h a t U . S . f o r c e s f o u g h t f o r e i g h t y e a r s t o p r e v e n t . ” – Los Angeles Times, June 11

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t s e i z e d 4 9 T u r k s f r o m t h e T u r k i s h C o n s u l a t e i n M o s u l , i n c l u d i n g s p e c i a l f o r c e s s o l d i e r s , d i p l o m a t s a n d c h i l d r e n . – Reuters, June 17

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r d e t o n a t e d e x p l o s i v e s a m o n g a g a t h e r i n g o f p e o p l e i n s i d e a t e n t i n B a g h d a d ’ s S h i ` a s l u m o f S a d r c i t y , k i l l i n g a t l e a s t 1 6 p e o p l e . – Reuters, June 11

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( L I B Y A ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n v e h i c l e a t t a c k e d a n a r m y c h e c k p o i n t o u t s i d e B e n g h a z i , w o u n d i n g s i x p e o p l e . T h e c h e c k p o i n t w a s m a n n e d b y f i g h t e r s l o y a l t o K h a l i f a H a f t a r , a r o g u e L i b y a n g e n e r a l w h o i s l e a d i n g a n o f f e n s i v e a g a i n s t I s l a m i s t m i l i t i a s . – Chicago Tribune, June 11

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( M A L I ) : A c a r b o m b k i l l e d f o u r U n i t e d N a t i o n s p e a c e k e e p e r s i n t h e n o r t h e r n M a l i a n t o w n o f A g u e l h o c . A s e x p l a i n e d b y R e u t e r s , “ M a l i w a s t h r o w n i n t o c h a o s i n 2 0 1 2 w h e n a l - Q a ` i d a - l i n k e d I s l a m i s t f i g h t e r s t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e o f a m i l i t a r y c o u p i n t h e c a p i t a l B a m a k o h i j a c k e d a T u a r e g s e p a r a t i s t r e b e l l i o n t o s e i z e t h e W e s t A f r i c a n n a t i o n ’ s d e s e r t n o r t h . A F r e n c h - l e d m i l i t a r y i n t e r v e n t i o n p u s h e d t h e m b a c k l a s t y e a r , b u t I s l a m i s t f i g h t e r s a r e b l a m e d f o r c o n t i n u i n g s p o r a d i c v i o l e n c e , i n c l u d i n g a t t a c k s o n v e h i c l e s w i t h i m p r o v i s e d l a n d m i n e s . ” – Reuters, June 11

J u n e 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( P H I L I P P I N E S ) : P h i l i p p i n e s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a r r e s t e d K h a i r M u n d o s , a s e n i o r A b u S a y y a f l e a d e r w h o w a s o n a U . S . g o v e r n m e n t t e r r o r i s t l i s t . – Sun Star, June 11

J u n e 1 4 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( L I B Y A ) : U . S . S p e c i a l O p e r a t i o n s F o r c e s a p p r e h e n d e d A h m e d A b u K h a t a l l a s o u t h o f B e n g h a z i , q u i c k l y t r a n s p o r t i n g h i m o u t o f L i b y a t o a U . S . w a r s h i p . K h a t a l l a i s a c c u s e d o f b e i n g a r i n g l e a d e r i n t h e a t t a c k o n t h e U . S . C o n s u l a t e i n B e n g h a z i i n S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 t h a t k i l l e d f o u r A m e r i c a n s . – Washington Post, June 17

J u n e 1 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( E G Y P T ) : A n E g y p t i a n c o u r t b e g a n p r o c e e d i n g s a g a i n s t 6 8 I s l a m i s t s , i n c l u d i n g a l - Q a ` i d a c h i e f A y m a n a l - Z a w a h i r i ’ s b r o t h e r , o n t e r r o r i s m - r e l a t e d c h a r g e s . M u h a m m a d a l - Z a w a h i r i a n d t h e o t h e r d e f e n d a n t s a r e a c c u s e d o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a t e r r o r i s t g r o u p t o a t t a c k E g y p t i a n s e c u r i t y f o r c e s a n d m e m b e r s o f t h e C h r i s t i a n m i n o r i t y , a s w e l l a s o t h e r t e r r o r i s t o p e r a t i o n s . – Gulf News, June 15

J u n e 1 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r k i l l e d a t l e a s t n i n e p e o p l e o u t s i d e a s t o r e s e l l i n g a r m y f a t i g u e s o n a b u s y r o a d n e a r T a h r i r S q u a r e i n c e n t r a l B a g h d a d .

– Independent, June 15

J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( S P A I N ) : S p a n i s h p o l i c e a r r e s t e d e i g h t s u s p e c t e d I s l a m i s t m i l i t a n t s i n M a d r i d . T h e m i l i t a n t s a r e a c c u s e d o f r e c r u i t i n g a n d s e n d i n g f o r e i g n f i g h t e r s t o j o i n t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t , w h i c h i s f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a a n d I r a q . S p a n i s h o f f i c i a l s s a i d t h a t t h e l e a d e r o f t h e c e l l h a d b e e n d e t a i n e d i n A f g h a n i s t a n i n 2 0 0 1 a n d l a t e r h e l d a t t h e U . S . m i l i t a r y p r i s o n a t G u a n t a n a m o B a y . – CNN, June 16

J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s s e n d i n g u p t o 2 7 5 U . S . m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l t o I r a q t o “ p r o v i d e s u p p o r t a n d s e c u r i t y f o r U . S . p e r s o n n e l a n d t h e U . S . E m b a s s y i n B a g h d a d . ” T h e U . S . g o v e r n m e n t a l s o s a i d t h a t t h e y m i g h t s e n d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 0 0 s p e c i a l o p e r a t i o n s t r o o p s a s w e l l , t o a d v i s e t h e I r a q i m i l i t a r y a s i t f i g h t s a g a i n s t t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t . – Los Angeles Times, June 16

J u n e 1 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f T a l A f a r , t h e l a t e s t c i t y i n I r a q t o f a l l t o t h e m i l i t a n t g r o u p . A s e x p l a i n e d b y t h e Los Angeles Times, “ O v e r t h e l a s t w e e k , I S I L f i g h t e r s h a v e c a p t u r e d o i l - r i c h M o s u l , I r a q ’ s s e c o n d - l a r g e s t c i t y , a n d s e i z e d T i k r i t , S a d d a m H u s s e i n ’ s h o m e t o w n . B e t t e r e q u i p p e d a n d n u m e r i c a l l y s u p e r i o r I r a q i a r m y a n d p o l i c e u n i t s a b a n d o n e d t h e i r p o s t s a n d f l e d . O t h e r a r e a s f e l l w i t h a s i m i l a r l a c k o f r e s i s t a n c e a s I S I L f i g h t e r s s w e p t t o w i t h i n 5 0 m i l e s o f B a g h d a d . ” – Los Angeles Times, June 16

J u n e 1 7 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) f o r c e d I r a q ’ s l a r g e s t o i l r e f i n e r y i n B a i j i t o s h u t d o w n . A s e n i o r e n g i n e e r

a t t h e f a c i l i t y s a i d , “ D u e t o t h e r e c e n t a t t a c k s o f m i l i t a n t s b y m o r t a r s , t h e r e f i n e r y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n d e c i d e d t o e v a c u a t e f o r e i g n w o r k e r s f o r t h e i r s a f e t y a n d a l s o t o c o m p l e t e l y s h u t d o w n p r o d u c t i o n u n i t s t o a v o i d e x t e n s i v e d a m a g e t h a t c o u l d r e s u l t . ” S h o r t l y a f t e r t h e a n n o u n c e m e n t , t h e I S I L l a i d s i e g e t o t h e r e f i n e r y , t a r g e t i n g i t w i t h m o r t a r s h e l l s . – CBS News, June 17; Los Angeles Times, June 18

J u n e 1 7 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r o n a t r i c y c l e t a x i t a r g e t e d a W o r l d C u p v i e w i n g v e n u e i n D a m a t u r u i n n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a , k i l l i n g a t l e a s t 1 4 p e o p l e . – Los Angeles Times, June 18

J u n e 1 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( U N I T E D S T A T E S ) : R a h a t u l A s h i k i m K h a n a n d M i c h a e l T o d d W o l f e w e r e a r r e s t e d i n T e x a s a n d s e p a r a t e l y c h a r g e d w i t h t e r r o r i s m - r e l a t e d o f f e n s e s . K h a n , w h o w a s b o r n i n B a n g l a d e s h , a l l e g e d l y w a n t e d t o j o i n S o m a l i a ’ s a l - S h a b a b , w h i l e W o l f e , f r o m H o u s t o n , w a n t e d t o f i g h t i n S y r i a . K h a n b e c a m e a U . S . c i t i z e n i n 2 0 0 2 a n d i s a f u l l - t i m e s t u d e n t a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f T e x a s - A u s t i n . – ABC News, June 18

J u n e 1 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : I r a q i F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r H o s h y a r Z e b a r i r e q u e s t e d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o n d u c t a i r s t r i k e s a g a i n s t I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) m i l i t a n t s w h o h a v e r e c e n t l y s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f a n u m b e r o f c i t i e s i n I r a q . – RFE/RL, June 18

J u n e 1 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( A F G H A N I S T A N ) : F o u r T a l i b a n m i l i t a n t s a t t a c k e d a N A T O p o s t i n e a s t e r n A f g h a n i s t a n ’ s N a n g a r h a r P r o v i n c e , r e p o r t e d l y d a m a g i n g 3 7 N A T O s u p p l y t r u c k s . – Reuters, June 19

J u n e 1 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r a t t a c k e d t h e r e s i d e n c e o f a n a n t i - T a l i b a n m i l i t i a l e a d e r , i n j u r i n g f i v e p e o p l e . T h e i n c i d e n t o c c u r r e d i n t h e M a t a n A d e z a i a r e a o f K h y b e r P a k h t u n k h w a P r o v i n c e . – AFP, June 19

J u n e 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( A F G H A N I S T A N ) : A n i m p r o v i s e d e x p l o s i v e d e v i c e k i l l e d t h r e e U . S . s o l d i e r s a n d a m i l i t a r y d o g i n H e l m a n d P r o v i n c e . – RFE/RL, June 21

J u n e 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) r e p o r t e d l y s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f a l - Q a i m , a b o r d e r p o s t o n t h e I r a q - S y r i a f r o n t i e r . A s e x p l a i n e d b y R e u t e r s , “ A l - Q a i m a n d i t s n e i g h b o r i n g S y r i a n c o u n t e r p a r t A l b u

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

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K a m a l a r e o n a s t r a t e g i c s u p p l y r o u t e . A t h r e e - y e a r - o l d c i v i l w a r i n S y r i a h a s l e f t m o s t o f e a s t e r n S y r i a i n t h e h a n d s o f S u n n i m i l i t a n t s , n o w i n c l u d i n g t h e A l b u K a m a l - Q a i m c r o s s i n g . T h e A l b u K a m a l g a t e [ i n S y r i a ] i s r u n b y a l - Q a ` i d a ’ s o f f i c i a l S y r i a b r a n c h , t h e N u s r a F r o n t , w h i c h h a s c l a s h e d w i t h I S I L b u t h a s s o m e t i m e s a g r e e d t o l o c a l i z e d t r u c e s w h e n i t s u i t s b o t h s i d e s . ” – Reuters, June 21

J u n e 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( S Y R I A ) : T h e b u l l e t - r i d d l e d b o d i e s o f t h r e e o f f i c e r s i n t h e F r e e S y r i a n A r m y w e r e f o u n d t w o d a y s a f t e r t h e y w e r e k i d n a p p e d b y t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t . – AFP, June 21

J u n e 2 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( L E B A N O N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r t r i e d t o a s s a s s i n a t e L e b a n e s e s e c u r i t y c h i e f M a j o r G e n e r a l A b b a s I b r a h i m a t a L e b a n e s e s e c u r i t y c h e c k p o i n t i n t h e e a s t e r n B e k a a V a l l e y . I b r a h i m w a s u n h a r m e d , b u t o n e s e c u r i t y o f f i c e r d i e d i n t h e b l a s t . – al-Jazira, June 20

J u n e 2 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( A F G H A N I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r a t t a c k e d H i g h P e a c e C o u n c i l a d v i s e r M o h a m m a d M a s s o m S t a n i k z a i i n w e s t e r n K a b u l . T h e a d v i s e r w a s u n h a r m e d , b u t o n e c i v i l i a n w a s k i l l e d i n t h e b l a s t . – Reuters, June 21

J u n e 2 1 , 2 0 1 4 ( C H I N A ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n a v e h i c l e r e p o r t e d l y d r o v e i n t o a p o l i c e s t a t i o n i n K a s h g a r i n C h i n a ’ s c o n t e n t i o u s X i n j i a n g r e g i o n . P o l i c e r e t u r n e d f i r e a n d k i l l e d a g r o u p o f 1 3 U i g h u r s e p a r a t i s t s . – Australian, June 21

J u n e 2 2 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) a t t a c k e d r i v a l o p p o s i t i o n f i g h t e r s i n n o r t h e r n S y r i a , u s i n g U . S . - m a d e m i l i t a r y v e h i c l e s t h a t t h e y r e c e n t l y c a p t u r e d f r o m n e i g h b o r i n g I r a q . – Reuters, June 22

J u n e 2 3 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : A b o m b t o r e t h r o u g h a c o l l e g e c a m p u s i n K a n o , k i l l i n g a t l e a s t e i g h t p e o p l e . – Guardian, June 23

J u n e 2 3 , 2 0 1 4 ( U N I T E D A R A B E M I R A T E S ) : A c o u r t c o n v i c t e d s i x A r a b s o f f o r m i n g a n a l - Q a ` i d a c e l l a n d r a i s i n g m o n e y f o r J a b h a t a l - N u s r a , a l - Q a ` i d a ’ s a f f i l i a t e i n S y r i a . T h e y w e r e s e n t e n c e d t o s e v e n y e a r s i n p r i s o n . – AFP, June 23

J u n e 2 3 , 2 0 1 4 ( T U N I S I A ) : T u n i s i a ’ s i n t e r i o r m i n i s t e r s a i d t h a t a t l e a s t 2 , 4 0 0 T u n i s i a n j i h a d i s t s a r e f i g h t i n g i n S y r i a , m o s t l y o n b e h a l f o f t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t . – AFP, June 24

J u n e 2 3 , 2 0 1 4 ( S O M A L I A ) : T h e A f r i c a n U n i o n s a i d t h a t K e n y a n f i g h t e r j e t s a t t a c k e d t w o a l - S h a b a b b a s e s i n t h e L o w e r J u b b a r e g i o n o f S o m a l i a , k i l l i n g a t l e a s t 8 0 m i l i t a n t s . I t d i d n o t s p e c i f y w h e n t h e a t t a c k s w e r e c a r r i e d o u t . – Reuters, June 23

J u n e 2 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( S Y R I A / I R A Q ) : U . S . o f f i c i a l s s a i d t h a t t h e S y r i a n g o v e r n m e n t l a u n c h e d a i r s t r i k e s a g a i n s t t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t i n w e s t e r n I r a q . – AP, June 25

J u n e 2 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( L E B A N O N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n v e h i c l e k i l l e d o n e s e c u r i t y o f f i c e r n e a r a L e b a n e s e a r m y c h e c k p o i n t i n B e i r u t . T h e a t t a c k o c c u r r e d i n a m a i n l y S h i ` a a r e a o f t h e c a p i t a l . – BBC, June 24

J u n e 2 4 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r i n a v e h i c l e k i l l e d a t l e a s t t w o s o l d i e r s a n d a c i v i l i a n i n S p i n w a m v i l l a g e o f N o r t h W a z i r i s t a n A g e n c y i n t h e F e d e r a l l y A d m i n i s t e r e d T r i b a l A r e a s . T h e m i l i t a n t g r o u p A n s a r a l - M u j a h i d i n c l a i m e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . – AFP, June 24

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( G L O B A L ) : T h e U . S . T r e a s u r y D e p a r t m e n t d e s i g n a t e d t h e f i n a n c e c h i e f a n d a s e n i o r p u b l i c r e l a t i o n s o f f i c i a l w i t h L a s h k a r - i - T a y y i b a ( L e T ) a s “ g l o b a l t e r r o r i s t s . ” T h e y w e r e i d e n t i f i e d a s M u h a m m a d H u s s e i n G i l l a n d N a z i r A h m a d C h a u d h r y , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e U . S . g o v e r n m e n t a l r e a d y r e c o g n i z e s t h e L e T a s a f o r e i g n t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n . – AFP, June 26

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( S Y R I A / I R A Q ) : J a b h a t a l - N u s r a f i g h t e r s i n t h e S y r i a n b o r d e r t o w n o f A l b u K a m a l p l e d g e d l o y a l t y t o t h e r i v a l g r o u p t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) . A c c o r d i n g t o R e u t e r s , “ T h e c e n t r a l l e a d e r s h i p o f a l - Q a ` i d a h a s d i s o w n e d I S I L a n d p r o c l a i m e d J a b h a t a l - N u s r a a s i t s o f f i c i a l S y r i a n a f f i l i a t e . C o n t r o l l i n g p a r t s o f S y r i a ’ s D e i r a l - Z o r P r o v i n c e , w h e r e A l b u K a m a l i s l o c a t e d , c o u l d h e l p I S I L l i n k u p i t s t e r r i t o r i a l g a i n s a c r o s s S y r i a a n d I r a q , w h e r e i t o v e r r a n t h e m a i n n o r t h e r n c i t y o f M o s u l o n J u n e

1 0 . ” I n o t h e r p a r t s o f S y r i a , t h e t w o g r o u p s c o n t i n u e t o c l a s h . – Reuters, June 25

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r k i l l e d a t l e a s t s i x p e o p l e , i n c l u d i n g t w o K u r d i s h s e c u r i t y p e r s o n n e l , i n K i r k u k . – RFE/RL, July 26

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r d e t o n a t e d e x p l o s i v e s a t a n o u t d o o r m a r k e t i n t h e p r e d o m i n a t e l y S h i ` a M a h m u d i y a a r e a o f B a g h d a d , k i l l i n g 1 3 p e o p l e . – AP, June 25

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( L E B A N O N ) : A s u i c i d e b o m b e r d e t o n a t e d e x p l o s i v e s a t t h e D u r o y H o t e l n e a r t h e S a u d i E m b a s s y i n B e i r u t , w o u n d i n g t h r e e s e c u r i t y o f f i c e r s . T h e b o m b e r w a s r e p o r t e d l y a S a u d i n a t i o n a l . T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t c l a i m e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . – Reuters, June 26

J u n e 2 5 , 2 0 1 4 ( N I G E R I A ) : A c a r b o m b k i l l e d a t l e a s t 2 1 p e o p l e o u t s i d e a n u p s c a l e s h o p p i n g m a l l i n A b u j a , t h e N i g e r i a n c a p i t a l . – Wall Street Journal, June 25

J u n e 2 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( P A K I S T A N ) : T h e U . S . S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t l i s t e d t h e c h a r i t y J a m a ` a t - u d - D a ` w a a s a f o r e i g n t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n . T h e c h a r i t y i s w i d e l y c o n s i d e r e d a f r o n t o r g a n i z a t i o n f o r t h e t e r r o r i s t g r o u p L a s h k a r - i - T a y y i b a . – Reuters, June 26

J u n e 2 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( Y E M E N ) : M i l i t a n t s a t t a c k e d a n a i r p o r t i n t h e e a s t e r n Y e m e n i c i t y o f S a y u n , k i l l i n g a t l e a s t o n e s o l d i e r . A t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e s a m e t i m e , a s u i c i d e b o m b e r d r o v e a n e x p l o s i v e s - l a d e n v e h i c l e i n t o a n a r m y b a s e i n H a d r a m a w t P r o v i n c e , k i l l i n g f o u r Y e m e n i s o l d i e r s . – Reuters, June 26

J u n e 2 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( J O R D A N ) : A J o r d a n i a n m i l i t a r y c o u r t a c q u i t t e d r a d i c a l p r e a c h e r A b u Q a t a d a o f t e r r o r i s m c h a r g e s o v e r h i s a l l e g e d r o l e i n a 1 9 9 9 p l o t t o a t t a c k a n A m e r i c a n s c h o o l i n A m m a n . T h e c o u r t p o s t p o n e d i t s d e c i s i o n o n a n a d d i t i o n a l s e t o f t e r r o r i s m c h a r g e s a g a i n s t Q a t a d a , w h i c h i n v o l v e p l o t s i n 2 0 0 0 t o a t t a c k A m e r i c a n s , I s r a e l i s a n d o t h e r W e s t e r n e r s i n J o r d a n . – Globe and Mail, June 26

J u n e 2 6 , 2 0 1 4 ( P H I L I P P I N E S ) : T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w i l l d i s b a n d i t s a n t i - t e r r o r i s m t a s k f o r c e t h a t w a s e s t a b l i s h e d

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i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s m o r e t h a n 1 0 y e a r s a g o . A U . S . o f f i c i a l s a i d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d w o r k w i t h F i l i p i n o a u t h o r i t i e s t o i m p l e m e n t a t r a n s i t i o n p l a n t h a t w i l l e n s u r e t h a t “ v i o l e n t e x t r e m i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s d o n ’ t r e g a i n a f o o t h o l d i n t h e s o u t h e r n P h i l i p p i n e s . ” – Slate, June 26

J u n e 2 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : A n I r a q i m i l i t a r y c o u n t e r o f f e n s i v e p u s h e d t h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) f r o m t h e c e n t e r o f T i k r i t , a c i t y w h i c h f e l l t o t h e I S I L o n J u n e 1 1 . – New York Times, June 28

J u n e 2 8 , 2 0 1 4 ( Y E M E N ) : S u s p e c t e d a l - Q a ` i d a i n t h e A r a b i a n P e n i n s u l a g u n m e n o p e n e d f i r e o n a n a r m y p o s i t i o n i n H a d r a m a w t P r o v i n c e , k i l l i n g t w o s o l d i e r s . – AFP, June 28

J u n e 2 9 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q / S Y R I A ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t ( I S I L ) d e c l a r e d i t s e l f a n I s l a m i c c a l i p h a t e a n d c a l l e d o n M u s l i m s e v e r y w h e r e t o p l e d g e t h e i r a l l e g i a n c e . T h e I S I L a l s o a n n o u n c e d t h a t t h e y h a v e s h o r t e n e d t h e i r n a m e t o t h e “ I s l a m i c S t a t e , ” a n d t h a t t h e i r l e a d e r , A b u B a k r a l - B a g h d a d i , i s t h e n e w c a l i p h . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s t a t e m e n t , “ I t i s i n c u m b e n t u p o n a l l M u s l i m s t o p l e d g e a l l e g i a n c e t o [ a l - B a g h d a d i ] a n d s u p p o r t h i m … T h e l e g a l i t y o f a l l e m i r a t e s , g r o u p s , s t a t e s , a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n s , b e c o m e s n u l l b y t h e e x p a n s i o n o f t h e k h a l i f a ’ s a u t h o r i t y a n d a r r i v a l o f i t s t r o o p s t o t h e i r a r e a s . ” – Reuters, June 29

J u n e 3 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( U N I T E D S T A T E S ) : S i n h V i n h N g o N g u y e n , o f G a r d e n G r o v e , C a l i f o r n i a , w a s s e n t e n c e d t o 1 3 y e a r s i n f e d e r a l p r i s o n f o r a t t e m p t i n g t o p r o v i d e m a t e r i a l s u p p o r t t o a d e s i g n a t e d f o r e i g n t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n . N g u y e n h a d t o l d a n u n d e r c o v e r F B I a g e n t t h a t h e w a n t e d t o e n g a g e i n j i h a d a n d p l a n n e d t o t r a v e l t o P a k i s t a n t o t r a i n a l - Q a ` i d a f i g h t e r s . – AP, June 30

J u n e 3 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( U N I T E D S T A T E S ) : T h e W h i t e H o u s e w i l l s e n d a n a d d i t i o n a l 2 0 0 t r o o p s t o I r a q t o i n c r e a s e s e c u r i t y a t t h e U . S . E m b a s s y a n d B a g h d a d ’ s i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t . T h e n e w d e p l o y m e n t w i l l a l s o i n c l u d e h e l i c o p t e r s a n d u n m a n n e d a e r i a l d r o n e s . A c c o r d i n g t o V o i c e o f A m e r i c a , t h e t r o o p s “ w i l l j o i n t h e 2 7 5 t r o o p s s e n t t o p r o t e c t t h e e m b a s s y

e a r l i e r t h i s m o n t h . T h e s e f o r c e s a r e s e p a r a t e f r o m t h e u p t o 3 0 0 m i l i t a r y a d v i s e r s t h e p r e s i d e n t a u t h o r i z e d t o a s s i s t I r a q a s i t b a t t l e s a n i n v a d i n g a r m y o f j i h a d i s t s t h a t h a s t a k e n o v e r m a j o r c i t i e s a n d t h r e a t e n s t h e c a p i t a l i n B a g h d a d . T h e l a t e s t a n n o u n c e m e n t w i l l b r i n g t o n e a r l y 8 0 0 t h e n u m b e r o f U . S . f o r c e s i n I r a q . ” - Voice of America, June 30

J u n e 3 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( I R A Q ) : T h e I s l a m i c S t a t e i n I r a q a n d t h e L e v a n t s t r u c k t h e p e r i m e t e r o f t h e a l - A s k a r i m o s q u e , o n e o f S h i ` a I s l a m ’ s h o l i e s t s h r i n e s , i n S a m a r r a . A m o r t a r r o u n d l a n d e d a t t h e p e r i m e t e r , k i l l i n g a n u m b e r o f p e o p l e . – Time, July 1

J u n e 3 0 , 2 0 1 4 ( S O M A L I A ) : A c a r b o m b r i p p e d t h r o u g h a b u s y m a r k e t i n M o g a d i s h u , k i l l i n g t w o p e o p l e . – Guardian, June 30

jULy 2014 . VoL 7. ISSUE 7

CTC Sentinel Staff

Editor-in-Chief Erich Marquardt Senior Editor, CTC

Editorial Board CoL Cindy R. Jebb, ph.D. Department Head Department of Social Sciences (West point)

CoL Suzanne Nielsen, ph.D. Deputy Department Head Department of Social Sciences (West point)

MAJ(p) Bryan price, ph.D. Director, CTC

CoNTACT Combating Terrorism Center U.S. Military Academy 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall West point, NY 10996 phone: (845) 938-8495 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/

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The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Government.