Econ 301 Project 2

Crime

Crime  Uniform Crime Report (UCR)

 Summary data compiled by the FBI from local police departments.

 Issues

 Legal definitions of crime.

 “Downgrading crimes” by agencies to create more favorable stats.

 Hierarchy rule (only the most serious offense recorded).

 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)  More detailed incident-based data on offense, offender, victim, property, location, etc.

 Compiled by the FBI beginning in 1989 to replace the UCR by 2021.

 Records 52 major crimes classifications and up to 10 offenses per incident (no hierarchy rule).

 Issues: still in development and lacking data to study national crime patterns.

 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)  Annual household survey compiled by the Census Bureau on behalf of the Justice Department.

 Includes both reported and unreported crimes.

 Issues:

 Excludes murder, commercial burglary and robbery, victimless crimes, and white-collar crimes.

 Excludes crimes against the homeless.

 One household respondent: may exaggerate their own, versus other HH members, victimizations.

 Telescoping: bringing past victimizations closer to the present.

Crime  Lower Crime Rates

 1991-2000: U.S. experienced a 44% drop in homicides, 47% drop in robberies, and a 42% drop in burglaries.

 2001-2008: stabilized, then dropped again in 2009 and 2010.

 Explanations:  Good economic conditions

 Higher incarceration rates

 Improved policing efforts

 Expanded availability of abortions after 1973

 Increased Ratio of Female Criminals  Since the mid-1990s the ratio of offenses committed by women relative

to men has increased.  The number of women offenders decreased but not as fast as that for men.

 Explanations:  Higher single (vs. collaborative) offender incidents.

 More equal gender roles and increased freedom of women.

 Welfare reform.

Crime  Highest Crime Regions

 Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Statistics

 Adjusted Data: correlated variables such as poverty, income, and unemployment

are controlled for to better evaluate law enforcement counter-crime policies.

 Unadjusted Data: Appropriate for evaluating quality of neighborhood and overall

safety.

 Population Count Matters

 Crime typically measured per 100,000 people.

 Overestimates of population can artificially lower crime rate.

 Underestimates can artificially raise crime rate.

 Rape

 Unreliable data: deficient reporting and lack of a clear definition.

 2012 & prior: UCR: “The carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will”.

 Post-2012 UCR: “Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any

body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without

the consent of the victim”

 Includes: attempts of such, male-male rape, and non-consensual/non-violent rape

 Excludes: statutory rape and incest

Crime  Poverty & Crime

 Correlated at group level (city, neighborhood, etc.) but not at individual level.

 Implications: government policy designed to counter poverty may not reduce crime.

 Correlation not consistent with the Great Depression and Great Recession.  Offsetting factors: less to steal, decreased mobility, and greater unity in extreme economic

conditions.

 High Black Crime  Despite being 13% of population, 27% of arrestees and 39% of prison

population are black.

 Blacks age 25-44 are 8 times more likely to be murdered than whites.

 Disproportionate black on black crime.

 Type of crime may increase probability of being arrested  Blacks more likely to commit conspicuous street crimes.

 Whites more likely to commit inconspicuous burglary and drunk driving.

 “Crime” in UCR omits white-collar crimes.

 May be discrimination and bias in the law enforcement and judicial system.

Crime  Does Prison Pay

 Federal Bureau of Prisons

 World Prison Brief

 US has the highest incarceration rate in world.

 In 2008 over 2% of US males age 18-64 were incarcerated.

 Cost-benefit analysis

 Cost to imprison an individual per year (approximately $30-$40 thousand).

 Benefit is the value of reduced crime.  Criminals often commit a larger number of crimes than they are apprehended for, raising benefits.

 3-strikes law increased imprisonment rates and costs but did it decrease crime?

 Gun Control  Small Arms Survey

 Estimates indicated there are over 300 million guns in America.

 Highly concentrated: half of households do not own guns.

 Correlation studies are difficult since ownership is both legal and illegal.

 Who kills and would gun control stop them?  ≈15% of homicides are committed by family members.

 ≈55% of homicides are committed by individuals known to the victim (includes family).

 ≈12% of homicides are committed by strangers.