economic about Data Analysis

Crime

Crime ◼ Uniform Crime Report (UCR)

◼ Compiled by the FBI from local police departments using legal definitions of crime.

◼ Issues

◼ “Downgrading crimes” by agencies to create more favorable stats.

◼ Hierarchy rule (only the most serious offense recorded).

◼ National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) ◼ Compiled by FBI and designed to eventually replace the UCR.

◼ Expands UCR to record 46 major crimes using standard legal definition of offenses.

◼ Incident based- recording data on offense, offender, victim, property, and arrests for individual events.

◼ All crimes reported: no hierarchy rule.

◼ Issues

◼ In development: currently lacking sufficient data to make broad generalizations about national crime.

◼ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) ◼ Annual household survey compiled by the Census Bureau on behalf of the DOJ.

◼ More inclusive than the UCR; includes both reported and unreported crimes.

◼ Issues:

◼ Excludes murder, commercial burglary and robbery, victimless crimes, and white-collar crimes.

◼ Excludes crimes against the homeless.

◼ One household respondent: may exaggerate their own, versus other HH members, victimizations.

◼ Telescoping: bringing past victimizations closer to the present.

Crime ◼ Lower Crime Rates

◼ 1991-2000: U.S. experienced a 44% drop in homicides, 47% drop in robberies, and a 42% drop in burglaries.

◼ 2001-2008: stabilized, then dropped again in 2009 and 2010.

◼ Explanations: ◼ Good economic conditions

◼ Higher incarceration rates

◼ Improved policing efforts

◼ Expanded availability of abortions after 1973

◼ Increased Ratio of Female Criminals ◼ Since the mid-1990s the ratio of offenses committed by women relative

to men has increased. ◼ The number of women offenders decreased but not as fast as that for men.

◼ Explanations: ◼ Higher single (vs. collaborative) offender incidents.

◼ More equal gender roles and increased freedom of women.

◼ Welfare reform.

Crime ◼ Highest Crime Regions

◼ Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Statistics

◼ Adjusted Data: correlated variables such as poverty, income, and unemployment

are controlled for to better evaluate law enforcement counter-crime policies.

◼ Unadjusted Data: Appropriate for evaluating quality of neighborhood and overall

safety.

◼ Population Count Matters

◼ Crime typically measured per 100,000 people.

◼ Overestimates of population can artificially lower crime rate.

◼ Underestimates can artificially raise crime rate.

◼ Rape

◼ Unreliable data: deficient reporting and lack of a clear definition.

◼ 2012 & prior: UCR: “The carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will”.

◼ Post-2012 UCR: “Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any

body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without

the consent of the victim”

◼ Includes: attempts of such, male-male rape, and non-consensual/non-violent rape

◼ Excludes: statutory rape and incest

Crime ◼ Poverty & Crime

◼ Correlated at group level (city, neighborhood, etc.) but not at individual level.

◼ Implications: government policy designed to counter poverty may not reduce crime.

◼ Correlation not consistent with the Great Depression and Great Recession. ◼ Offsetting factors: less to steal, decreased mobility, and greater unity in extreme economic

conditions.

◼ High Black Crime ◼ Despite being 12% of population, >30% of arrestees and 39% of prison

population are black.

◼ Blacks age 25-44 are 8 times more likely to be murdered than whites.

◼ Disproportionate black on black crime.

◼ Type of crime may increase probability of being arrested ◼ Blacks more likely to commit conspicuous street crimes.

◼ Whites more likely to commit inconspicuous burglary and drunk driving.

◼ “Crime” in UCR omits white-collar crimes.

◼ May be discrimination and bias in the law enforcement and judicial system.

Crime ◼ Does Prison Pay

◼ US has the highest incarceration rate in world.

◼ In 2008 over 2% of US males age 18-64 were incarcerated.

◼ Cost-benefit analysis

◼ Cost to imprison an individual per year (approximately $30-$40 thousand).

◼ Benefit is the value of reduced crime.

◼ Should consider that criminals often commit a larger number of crimes than they are

apprehended for.

◼ 3 strikes law increased imprisonment rates and costs but did it decrease

crime?

◼ More Guns More/Less Crime? ◼ Estimates indicated there are over 300 million guns in America.

◼ Highly concentrated: 50% of households do not own guns.

◼ Correlation studies are difficult since ownership is both legal and illegal.

◼ Who kills and would gun control stop them?

◼ ≈12% of homicides are committed by strangers.

◼ ≈15% of homicides are committed by family members.

◼ ≈55% of homicides are committed by individuals known to the victim (includes family).