infectious disease

Emergency management 11

Emergency Management

Abstract:

In the month of December, 2019 there was outbreak of pneumonia with unknown reason in Wuhan, China. Wuhan is the center of attention because of the respiratory disorder cause by a virus called Corona and also known as Novel COVID – 19. Validate the existence of this virus was also diagnosed in Wuhan. Then it start spreading all over the world due to the social gatherings. It ultimately take thousands of people towards death. Then after its huge destruction a final step of lockdown is taken up by the government of each country. The animal-to-human transmission was presumed as the main mechanism. It was concluded that the virus could also be transmitted from human-to-human, and symptomatic people are the most frequent source of COVID-19 spread. The virus-host interaction and the evolution of the epidemic, with specific reference to the times when the epidemic will reach its peak.

Introduction:

There is scanty knowledge on the actual pandemic potential of this new SARS-like virus. It might be speculated that SARS-CoV-2 epidemic is grossly underdiagnosed and that the infection is silently spreading across the globe. There are no comparable analogies to corona virus. This virus is not like any of the other epidemiological threats that have emerged in recent decades; it is less fatal but much more contagious.

Distribution of cases by the following:

· Time: The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported on December 31, 2019.

· Place: the epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a remote region of China, far from Wuhan, we analyzed the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Gansu Province

Explanation of the research topic (corona virus):

As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly expanding in China and beyond, with the potential to become a world-wide pandemic, real-time analyses of epidemiological data are needed to increase situational awareness and inform interventions. The current most likely hypothesis is that an intermediary host animal has played a role in the transmission. Identifying the animal source of the 2019-nCoV would help to ensure that there will be no further future similar outbreaks with the same virus and will also help understanding the initial spread of the disease.

Numerator (cases of corona virus):

Deaths divided the total of deaths plus recoveries. In early days because of the exponential increase new cases significantly outpace recoveries. You’re dividing by new cases but the numerator hasn’t had a chance to catch up to the death toll yet to be associated with those cases. If you look at COVID 19 on Feb 17, you get the 2% number only if dividing by total cases. If you look vs recovered cases, it’s 13%.

The WHO’s fatality percentage, announced March 17, 2020, is based simply on the number of deaths globally (the numerator) and the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 (the denominator). As of March 20, 2020 the WHO had counted 3,400 deaths among 100,000 cases.

Clinical features of COVID-19:

The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Serological and cultural aspects of COVID-19:

Serology plays an important role in confirming clinically suspected cases of SARS. The culprit, SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), was detected in patient specimens by traditional cell culture using an unusual cell line for respiratory viruses. The coronavirus genus, of which SARS-CoV is a member, consists of large enveloped positive-stranded RNA viruses with a typical crown-like morphology that cause respiratory and enteric disease in humans and other animals, including mammals and birds.

The population at risk of developing disease (COVID-19):

The denominator in this phase contains many cases who have recently become ill and have not spent a sufficient number of days ill for them to die of COVID-19.

Typically underestimates the risk of death among confirmed cases though it may also possibly overestimate it if only a small number of cases and deaths are observed.

Observed number of cases clearly exceeds the expected number:

As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalization. According to a survey an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.

Calculation of the attack rates:

Total cases: 255,904

Deaths: 10,495

Recovered: 89,918

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 183 countries and territories around the world.

Findings from investigation of the outbreak:

WHO is reassured of the quality of the ongoing investigations and the response measures implemented all over the world. The evidence is highly suggestive that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan. The market was closed on 1 January 2020. According to the preliminary epidemiological investigation, most cases worked at or were handlers and frequent visitors to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. The government reports that there is no clear evidence that the virus passes easily from person to person.

Written report of the investigation and the findings of COVID-19:

We reviewed clinical charts, nursing records, laboratory findings, and chest x-rays for all patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection who were reported by the local health authority. The admission data of these patients was from Dec 16, 2019, to Jan 2, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and outcomes data were obtained with standardized data collection forms (modified case record form for severe acute respiratory infection clinical characterization shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium) from electronic medical records.

By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients were identified as laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan. 20 [49%]) of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients were aged 25–49 years, and 14 (34%) were aged 50–64 years (figure 1A). The median age of the patients was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0; table 1). In our cohort of the first 41 patients as of Jan 2, no children or adolescents were infected. Of the 41 patients, 13 (32%) were admitted to the ICU because they required high-flow nasal cannula or higher-level oxygen support measures to correct hypoxaemia. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%]); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]).

IMPACTS OF COVID-19 FROM DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEWS

As we all know, world is facing the pandemic which puts the whole world into the crises. Covid19 has spread throughout the world and becomes a greater threat to the economy of people more than their health. Corona virus actually threatens the financial infection to the world’s economy and led it to the great loss. Even the most developed countries are also facing the economic crises and financial issues. As it is disease which spread from person to person communication so for the control of this viral spread, the developed developing or under developed countries announce the complete lockdown. This lockdown has become the reason for the decrease in market value. The global economy was expected to be grown to 1.2% this year but due to this pandemic it decreases drastically. All the trades are closed and this leads to the great crises and shortage of the resources. As the banks are also facing these crises just like the whole world, so they can get back their financial state back. The banks are getting empty as the most of the financing is spending on the purchasing of medical equipment and also for meeting the needs of people. When this covid-19 will be over, it will take a long time to settle the financial crises back to their position. Educational institutes are also closed because of this pandemic which is also causing the greater loss to the education. If we link the social aspect to finance in this era of crises we get to know that how drastically every country is facing loss due to no trading and lockdown. Ethically, in most of the countries, especially in Italy due to high rate of deaths they saved the ventilators for the young ones and removed from the elderly people and this kind of behavior is wrong ethically.

Comment on colleague’s opinion:

The economy of the whole world is highly affected by the pandemic of corona virus (covid-19). Everyone is taking the preventive measures and it has become the reason of financial crises throughout the world. Even the most developed countries or states are facing economic issues which led them in greater debts.

Emergency Management cycle applies to COVID-19:

Recommend control measures:

1. Control of current outbreak:

This is the first edition of guidance on infection prevention and control (IPC) strategies for use when infection with a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is suspected. It has been adapted from WHO’s Infection prevention and control during health care for probable or confirmed cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, based on current knowledge of the situation in China and other countries where cases were identified and experiences with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV and MERS-CoV.

• Use mask

• Use sanitizers

• Do not go to the gatherings

• Wash hands at-least for 20 seconds.

2. Prevention of future similar outbreaks:

Such outbreaks like Ebola, the scheme to make zero patient in the current situation of corona and there are different researches of the well-known researchers, but the term “patient zero” comes loaded with meaning and stigma. Many health experts are against identifying the first documented case of an outbreak, for fear that it might lead to disinformation about the disease or even victimization of the person.

Phases of Emergency management cycle:

1) Mitigation:

It is the process through which different kind of activities can be deducted for the betterment or to be safe from any disease or the current pandemic COVID-19. This phase of emergency applies to COVID-19 in the sense like there is no social gatherings and everyone is promoting social-distancing.

2) Preparation:

Preparation is the phase in which the emergency situation or the disaster is being solved with the utilization of the resources and to prepare the emergency cabins in the country with every individual disaster kit to protect everyone from the pandemic.

3) Response:

Response is the third phase in which a response is created against the disaster and to create such kind of events through which the new occurring problems to be solved.

4) Recovery:

To plan an emergency cycle one must plan about the last but the most important phase of the recovery. There should be plans to protect everyone from the upcoming disasters.

Conclusion:

COVID-19 is an outbreak first witnessed in city of China, Wuhan. It is an animal to animal virus which is modified and now attacking the human. It is a respiratory disorder. Its symptoms include, flu, cough, high fever, joint pains and irritation in the throat. The main precautions taken by this SARS-COVID is the social distancing because it is spread with the respiratory droplets, means if anyone is sneezing coughing or talking and the saliva is touched by the healthy one can enter to its body. This pandemic depends upon the immune system. If a person have a healthy immune system plus having corona virus symptoms have high rate of recovery or high chances of recovery, just by isolating themselves. Then there is a discussion about the pandemic death rate and all the statistical calculations. The impact of COVID-19 on different fields of our lives. The lockdown can make economic crises and everyone in the world is going through the same type of crises now. The high ratio of deaths are in the china and then in Italy. Today, there is a good ratio of people recovering from this pandemic if they are applying the instruction by WHO, otherwise the people who are not taking any precautionary measures are suffering from this respiratory disorder. The end result of this disorder is that it damages the lung and ultimately with the difficulty in breathing causes the death.

References:

Drosten, C. et al. Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N. Engl. J. Med. 348, 1967–1976 (2003)

Emergency Management Cycle. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.hampton.gov/655/Emergency-Management-Cycle

Hu, B. et al. Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus. PLoS Pathog. 13, e1006698 (2017).

Roser, M., Ritchie, H., & Ortiz-Ospina, E. (2020, March 4). Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus