Individual Case Project

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Annual data

Year Volume
1970 6,787,650
1971 7,361,783
1972 7,954,748
1973 8,474,727
1974 8,664,751
1975 9,151,427
1976 9,769,354
1977 10,137,021
1978 11,178,111
1979 11,696,073
1980 11,941,524
1981 11,820,788
1982 11,633,728
1983 12,348,270
1984 12,843,433
1985 14,194,189
1986 15,196,284
1987 16,216,102
1988 17,199,808
1989 18,129,684
1990 20,954,420
1991 21,315,116
1992 21,886,865
1993 23,522,593
1994 28,214,362
1995 29,002,122
1996 29,636,361
1997 30,464,635
1998 30,605,128
1999 33,809,134
2000 35,849,691
2001 35,017,317 r
2002 35,071,504
2003 35,540,126
2004 37,388,781
2005 38,566,717
2006 38,914,889
2007 39,196,761
2008 37,481,552
2009 36,351,469
2010 37,335,436
2011 38,928,708

Annual plot

Volume 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6787650 7361783 7954748 8474727 8664751 9151427 9769354 10137021 11178111 11696073 11941524 11820788 11633728 12348270 12843433 14194189 15196284 16216102 17199808 18129684 20954420 21315116 21886865 23522593 28214362 29002122 29636361 30464635 30605128 33809134 35849691 35017317 35071504 35540126 37388781 38566717 38914889 39196761 37481552 36351469 37335436 38928708

Regression

Date Visitors t D1 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 F e e^2 APE Num Den
Jan-02 2,671,527 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regression coeff 2890716.64002669 -219,190 48,044,098,295 0.0820465749 0.0002411394 0.0011579374 ME 0
Feb-02 2,762,435 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Constant 2800028.64102951 2803920.24393772 -41,485 1,721,025,465 0.0150176362 0.0003199631 0.0327468835 RMSE 121258
Mar-02 3,262,328 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t 1945.8014541006 3212914.91275396 49,413 2,441,653,191 0.0151465724 0.0013926475 0.0076271123 MAPE 3.37%
Apr-02 2,977,418 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 D1 88742.197543073 3099162.18548124 -121,744 14,821,646,698 0.0408891817 0.0013290662 0.0007700746 Thiel's U 0.5979
May-02 3,060,042 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 D3 407048.867362145 3168587.82184487 -108,546 11,782,195,440 0.0354720039 0.0005454435 0.0012319074
Jun-02 2,952,639 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 D4 291350.338635322 3024105.45820851 -71,466 5,107,454,649 0.0242042655 0.0035855583 0.0001477002 excluding first two years
Jul-02 2,988,523 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 D5 358830.173544856 3165325.64002669 -176,803 31,259,173,520 0.0591605419 0.0003832512 0.0041962958
Aug-02 3,182,116 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 D6 212402.008454392 3123610.27639033 58,506 3,422,919,695 0.0183857922 0.0058427357 0.0184101285 ME 20876
Sep-02 2,750,354 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 D7 351676.388818474 2993587.91275397 -243,234 59,162,736,314 0.0884373113 0.002637955 0.0092295491 RMSE 119540
Oct-02 3,014,582 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 D8 308015.22372801 3155843.00366305 -141,261 19,954,671,156 0.0468592341 0.000005565 0.004413047 MAPE 3.30%
Nov-02 2,814,321 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D9 176047.058637547 2821432.45702462 -7,111 50,572,821 0.002526882 0.0044699154 0.0040499416 Thiel's U 0.6247
Dec-02 2,635,220 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D10 336356.348092533 2823378.25847872 -188,158 35,403,530,234 0.0714013473 0.0000000962 0.0111313141
Jan-03 2,913,249 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2914066.25747589 -817 667,910 0.0002805313 0.0003916667 0.0024308564
Feb-03 2,769,615 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2827269.86138692 -57,655 3,324,083,042 0.0208169227 0.0060849328 0.0081871685
Mar-03 3,020,218 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3236264.53020317 -216,047 46,676,103,213 0.0715334225 0.0039096933 0.0008212732
Apr-03 2,933,665 16 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3122511.80293045 -188,847 35,663,114,977 0.0643723134 0.0023824244 0.0015387876
May-03 3,048,745 17 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3191937.43929408 -143,192 20,504,074,671 0.0469676668 0.0011664563 0.0011955359
Jun-03 2,943,330 18 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3047455.07565772 -104,125 10,842,031,381 0.035376623 0.0005040711 0.0037093978
Jul-03 3,122,593 19 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3188675.2574759 -66,082 4,366,864,753 0.0211626227 0.0003714531 0.0007331388
Aug-03 3,207,142 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3146959.89383954 60,182 3,621,885,902 0.018765027 0.0027786753 0.0125484073
Sep-03 2,847,879 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3016937.53020317 -169,059 28,580,786,634 0.0593629611 0.0006017235 0.0084285106
Oct-03 3,109,334 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3179192.62111226 -69,859 4,880,226,944 0.0224673905 0.0000046903 0.006875301
Nov-03 2,851,516 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2844782.07447383 6,734 45,345,753 0.0023615247 0.0006714207 0.0007612598
Dec-03 2,772,840 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2846727.87592793 -73,888 5,459,418,209 0.026647003 0.0017798441 0.0103105786
Jan-04 3,054,397 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2937415.8749251 116,981 13,684,583,624 0.0382992535 0.000434113 0.0021050425
Feb-04 2,914,259 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2850619.47883613 63,640 4,049,988,654 0.0218372908 0.0001296965 0.0168723836
Mar-04 3,292,803 27 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3259614.14765237 33,189 1,101,499,920 0.0100792098 0.0008677235 0.0002300661
Apr-04 3,242,858 28 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3145861.42037965 96,997 9,408,336,458 0.0299108316 0.0001766189 0.0000229226
May-04 3,258,384 29 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3215287.05674329 43,097 1,857,346,518 0.0132264777 0.0003781011 0.0059310056
Jun-04 3,007,446 30 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3070804.69310692 -63,359 4,014,323,992 0.0210672754 0.0000061148 0.0042969732
Jul-04 3,204,588 31 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3212024.87492511 -7,437 55,307,109 0.0023206961 0.0000000413 0.0001101113
Aug-04 3,170,961 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3170309.51128874 651 424,438 0.0002054547 0.0007186474 0.000207416
Sep-04 3,125,293 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3040287.14765238 85,006 7,225,994,933 0.0271993225 0.0017510543 0.0044306382
Oct-04 3,333,322 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3202542.23856147 130,780 17,103,346,002 0.0392340618 0.0003240163 0.0147761318
Nov-04 2,928,133 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2868131.69192303 60,001 3,600,156,971 0.0204913192 0.0000220203 0.0006011999
Dec-04 2,856,337 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2870077.49337713 -13,740 188,801,158 0.0048105295 0.0009336964 0.0045046555
Jan-05 3,048,045 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2960765.49237431 87,280 7,617,712,451 0.0286345863 0.0006223254 0.0010345373
Feb-05 2,950,007 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2873969.09628534 76,038 5,781,762,801 0.0257754994 0.0014838417 0.0229180536
Mar-05 3,396,600 39 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3282963.76510158 113,636 12,913,193,882 0.0334558779 0.001271199 0.0009792002
Apr-05 3,290,313 40 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3169211.03782886 121,102 14,665,685,242 0.0368056055 0.001603182 0.0005921513
May-05 3,370,380 41 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3238636.67419249 131,743 17,356,303,895 0.0390885674 0.0014565477 0.0019177476
Jun-05 3,222,784 42 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3094154.31055613 128,630 16,545,597,006 0.0399126002 0.0022556684 0.0026420207
Jul-05 3,388,437 43 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3235374.49237431 153,063 23,428,131,241 0.0451720093 0.0002979529 0.0016177924
Aug-05 3,252,148 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3193659.12873795 58,489 3,420,948,062 0.0179846893 0.0011375943 0.0005874275
Sep-05 3,173,326 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3063636.76510159 109,689 12,031,728,253 0.0345660152 0.0005931474 0.0016744077
Oct-05 3,303,177 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3225891.85601067 77,285 5,972,993,481 0.0233972155 0.0038975938 0.0038695326
Nov-05 3,097,701 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2891481.30937224 206,220 42,526,560,803 0.0665718514 0.0033904607 0.0000595373
Dec-05 3,073,799 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2893427.11082634 180,372 32,534,018,404 0.0586804437 0.0038778538 0.001095314
Jan-06 3,175,528 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2984115.10982352 191,413 36,638,894,526 0.0602775004 0.0006362465 0.0038920723
Feb-06 2,977,418 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2897318.71373454 80,099 6,415,895,660 0.0269022644 0.0011760795 0.0209546768
Mar-06 3,408,421 51 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3306313.38255079 102,108 10,425,965,541 0.0299574546 0.0010259513 0.0009797529
Apr-06 3,301,734 52 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3192560.65527807 109,173 11,918,819,198 0.0330654573 0.0005749551 0.0001425585
May-06 3,341,156 53 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3261986.2916417 79,170 6,267,842,722 0.0236953044 0.0001413559 0.0030304156
Jun-06 3,157,228 54 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3117503.92800534 39,724 1,578,001,896 0.0125819459 0.0012394518 0.0045364361
Jul-06 3,369,877 55 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3258724.10982352 111,153 12,354,964,995 0.0329842573 0.0013539076 0.000073405
Aug-06 3,341,005 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3217008.74618716 123,996 15,375,070,960 0.0371134595 0.0032990197 0.0003457185
Sep-06 3,278,884 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3086986.38255079 191,898 36,824,695,583 0.058525284 0.0017137259 0.0010469587
Oct-06 3,384,978 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3249241.47345988 135,737 18,424,404,637 0.0400996776 0.0038319002 0.0059274393
Nov-06 3,124,369 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2914830.92682145 209,538 43,906,204,111 0.0670657253 0.0019371841 0.000503082
Dec-06 3,054,291 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2916776.72827555 137,514 18,910,174,928 0.0450233038 0.0023784011 0.0011180696
Jan-07 3,156,419 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3007464.72727272 148,954 22,187,375,364 0.0471909061 0.0009093212 0.0019833064
Feb-07 3,015,850 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2920668.33118375 95,182 9,059,550,079 0.0315604784 0.0017754186 0.0213716022
Mar-07 3,456,738 63 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3329662.99999999 127,075 16,148,055,625 0.0367615365 0.0008125913 0.0016943996
Apr-07 3,314,448 64 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3215910.27272727 98,538 9,709,683,696 0.0297297551 0.0008294224 0.0004006524
May-07 3,380,791 65 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3285335.90909091 95,455 9,111,674,380 0.0282345436 0.0017508123 0.0008484459
Jun-07 3,282,315 66 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3140853.54545454 141,461 20,011,343,122 0.0430980739 0.0008575519 0.0008532522
Jul-07 3,378,193 67 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3282073.72727273 96,119 9,238,914,590 0.028452866 0.0011315744 0.0000513001
Aug-07 3,353,997 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3240358.36363636 113,639 12,913,739,675 0.0338815558 0.0022132379 0.0006555077
Sep-07 3,268,125 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3110336 157,789 24,897,368,521 0.048281201 0.0011735159 0.0012690108
Oct-07 3,384,546 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3272591.09090909 111,955 12,533,901,670 0.0330782649 0.0031956098 0.0056781773
Nov-07 3,129,508 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2938180.54427065 191,327 36,606,195,316 0.0611365926 0.0018803442 0.0002941876
Dec-07 3,075,831 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2940126.34572475 135,705 18,415,753,192 0.0441196718 0.0012214425 0.0004126397
Jan-08 3,138,312 73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3030814.34472193 107,498 11,555,745,890 0.034253336 0.0027301374 0.0000933089
Feb-08 3,107,997 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2944017.94863296 163,979 26,889,129,287 0.0527603635 0.0005182281 0.0103222661
Mar-08 3,423,765 75 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3353012.6174492 70,752 5,005,899,637 0.0206650814 0.0000576291 0.0021435191
Apr-08 3,265,251 76 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3239259.89017648 25,991 675,537,790 0.0079599118 0.0007149074 0.0016031857
May-08 3,395,991 77 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3308685.52654011 87,305 7,622,245,696 0.0257083937 0.0000202152 0.0040649852
Jun-08 3,179,472 78 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3164203.16290375 15,269 233,137,386 0.0048023185 0.000680933 0.0001827695
Jul-08 3,222,456 79 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3305423.34472193 -82,967 6,883,580,290 0.0257466183 0.0002654164 0.0000121815
Aug-08 3,211,209 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3263707.98108557 -52,499 2,756,143,015 0.0163486653 0.0037706631 0.0073183267
Sep-08 2,936,499 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3133685.61744921 -197,187 38,882,562,101 0.0671502416 0.0076398729 0.0012248936
Oct-08 3,039,272 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3295940.70835829 -256,669 65,878,825,850 0.0844507199 0.0021188661 0.0051280266
Nov-08 2,821,629 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2961530.16171986 -139,901 19,572,335,051 0.0495816997 0.0062897145 0.0008431136
Dec-08 2,739,699 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2963475.96317396 -223,777 50,076,129,247 0.0816793973 0.011069469 0.0000915715
Jan-09 2,765,916 85 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3054163.96217114 -288,248 83,086,887,696 0.1042142864 0.0015479608 0.0011215431
Feb-09 2,858,545 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2967367.56608216 -108,823 11,842,350,889 0.0380692157 0.0037059491 0.0144650238
Mar-09 3,202,344 87 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3376362.23489841 -174,018 30,282,346,077 0.0543408937 0.0008175933 0.0000955389
Apr-09 3,171,043 88 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3262609.50762569 -91,567 8,384,425,319 0.0288758328 0.0017410908 0.0000817773
May-09 3,199,719 89 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3332035.14398932 -132,316 17,507,561,960 0.0413524263 0.0042026452 0.0047100891
Jun-09 2,980,122 90 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3187552.78035296 -207,431 43,027,528,638 0.0696047948 0.002454169 0.0045498543
Jul-09 3,181,139 91 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3328772.96217114 -147,634 21,795,786,786 0.0464091516 0.0037442431 0.0007780982
Aug-09 3,092,403 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3287057.59853478 -194,655 37,890,412,731 0.0629460644 0.0009377004 0.0000945088
Sep-09 3,062,340 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3157035.23489841 -94,695 8,967,187,512 0.0309225086 0.0029430406 0.0008795218
Oct-09 3,153,159 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3319290.3258075 -166,131 27,599,617,415 0.0526872656 0.0006564631 0.0062394186
Nov-09 2,904,091 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2984879.77916907 -80,789 6,526,826,840 0.0278189558 0.0050403702 0.00180681
Dec-09 2,780,648 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2986825.58062317 -206,178 42,509,194,752 0.0741473141 0.005162837 0.0012185971
Jan-10 2,877,716 97 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3077513.57962034 -199,798 39,919,072,822 0.0694292208 0.0021767326 0.0000545796
Feb-10 2,856,456 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2990717.18353137 -134,261 18,026,065,403 0.0470027137 0.003754004 0.0166191652
Mar-10 3,224,697 99 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3399711.85234762 -175,015 30,630,198,542 0.0542732704 0.0007181776 0.0000608563
Apr-10 3,199,541 100 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3285959.12507489 -86,418 7,468,092,341 0.0270095383 0.0008367829 0.0003912865
May-10 3,262,831 101 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3355384.76143853 -92,554 8,566,198,756 0.0283660911 0.0010147394 0.0022819894
Jun-10 3,106,965 102 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3210902.39780216 -103,937 10,802,982,662 0.0334530314 0.0000477279 0.005183607
Jul-10 3,330,658 103 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3352122.57962035 -21,465 460,728,178 0.0064445463 0.0010660074 0.001500004
Aug-10 3,201,662 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3310407.21598398 -108,745 11,825,521,999 0.0339652393 0.0003151329 0.0005952449
Sep-10 3,123,549 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3180384.85234762 -56,836 3,230,314,112 0.0181959215 0.000010274 0.0044804763
Oct-10 3,332,628 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3342639.94325671 -10,012 100,239,008 0.0030042187 0.000497488 0.0143148343
Nov-10 2,933,897 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3008229.39661827 -74,332 5,525,305,187 0.0253357213 0.0018250892 0.0002796296
Dec-10 2,884,836 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3010175.19807238 -125,339 15,709,914,573 0.0434475991 0.0000781386 0.0070095916
Jan-11 3,126,364 109 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3100863.19706955 25,501 650,290,950 0.0081566967 0.0017152403 0.0059806844
Feb-11 2,884,587 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3014066.80098058 -129,480 16,765,018,862 0.0448867727 0.0000334227 0.0327218264
Mar-11 3,406,385 111 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3423061.46979682 -16,676 278,104,645 0.0048956503 0.0001743173 0.0002339491
Apr-11 3,354,283 112 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3309308.7425241 44,974 2,022,683,836 0.0134080092 0.0000079748 0.0000199419
May-11 3,369,262 113 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3378734.37888773 -9,472 89,725,962 0.0028114106 0.0007141377 0.0001781619
Jun-11 3,324,290 114 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3234252.01525137 90,038 8,106,838,698 0.0270848767 0.0008582627 0.0019974241
Jul-11 3,472,861 115 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3375472.19706955 97,389 9,484,578,936 0.0280428163 0.0001553376 0.002758149
Aug-11 3,290,473 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3333756.83343319 -43,284 1,873,490,237 0.0131542892 0.000754488 0.0000012264
Sep-11 3,294,117 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3203734.46979683 90,383 8,169,001,766 0.0274375592 0.0002898723 0.0015088639
Oct-11 3,422,074 118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3365989.56070591 56,084 3,145,464,331 0.01638902 0.0000021846 0.0133607418
Nov-11 3,026,521 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3031579.01406748 -5,058 25,583,506 0.0016712305 0.0006311407 0.0005202216
Dec-11 2,957,491 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3033524.81552158 -76,034 5,781,141,103 0.0257088916 0.0001058396 0.00444363
Jan-12 3,154,639 121 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3124212.81451876 30,426 925,752,763 0.0096449025 0.0001063827 0.0007206322
Feb-12 3,069,954 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3037416.41842978 32,538 1,058,694,214 0.0105987196 0.0007771599 0.022651419
Mar-12 3,531,994 123 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3446411.08724603 85,583 7,324,434,955 0.0242307639 0.0000053891 0.0034525723
Apr-12 3,324,459 124 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3332658.35997331 -8,199 67,229,504 0.0024663742 0.0002200027 0.0014578768
May-12 3,451,394 125 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3402083.99633694 49,310 2,431,476,461 0.0142869819 0.0015344084 0.0002882351
Jun-12 3,392,798 126 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3257601.63270058 135,196 18,278,057,731 0.039848045 0.0001733017 0.0002232001
Jul-12 3,443,486 127 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3398821.81451876 44,664 1,994,889,465 0.0129706308 0.000022353 0.0008888037
Aug-12 3,340,826 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3357106.4508824 -16,280 265,053,081 0.0048731813 0.0014279958 0.0000140085
Sep-12 3,353,330 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3227084.08724603 126,246 15,938,030,487 0.0376479239 0.0015516462 0.0025129442
Oct-12 3,521,430 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3389339.17815512 132,091 17,447,985,216 0.037510563 0.0001790748 0.0141831654
Nov-12 3,102,052 131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3054928.63151669 47,123 2,220,611,857 0.0151910311
Dec-12 132 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3056874.43297079
Jan-13 133 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3147562.43196796
Feb-13 134 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3060766.03587899
Mar-13 135 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3469760.70469524
Apr-13 136 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3356007.97742251
May-13 137 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3425433.61378615
Jun-13 138 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3280951.25014978
Jul-13 139 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3422171.43196797
Aug-13 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3380456.0683316
Sep-13 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3250433.70469524
Oct-13 142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3412688.79560433
Nov-13 143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3078278.2489659
Dec-13 144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3080224.05042

Reg Calcs

Multiple R-Square Adjusted StErr of
Summary R
Yurova, Yuliya: StatTools Note: This is the correlation between the actual Y values and the fitted Y values.		 R-Square Estimate
0.8051 0.6483 0.6189 126693.714858349
Degrees of Sum of Mean of F-Ratio p-Value
ANOVA Table Freedom Squares Squares
Explained 10 3549846626197.38 354984662619.737 22.1156 < 0.0001
Unexplained 120 1926155686153.04 16051297384.6086
Coefficient Standard t-Value p-Value Confidence Interval 95%
Regression Table Error Lower Upper
Constant 2800028.64102951 29669.6005083403 94.3737 < 0.0001 2741284.8968764 2858772.38518263
t 1945.8014541006 293.3171130641 6.6338 < 0.0001 1365.0539836139 2526.5489245873
D1 88742.197543073 44308.7878523006 2.0028 0.0475 1013.8812619556 176470.51382419
D3 407048.867362145 44291.9160124282 9.1901 < 0.0001 319353.95614978 494743.778574509
D4 291350.338635322 44286.391819546 6.5788 < 0.0001 203666.364940409 379034.312330236
D5 358830.173544856 44282.8098317433 8.1031 < 0.0001 271153.291936504 446507.055153208
D6 212402.008454392 44281.1705203461 4.7967 < 0.0001 124728.372568518 300075.644340265
D7 351676.388818474 44281.4741011094 7.9418 < 0.0001 264002.151863816 439350.625773131
D8 308015.22372801 44283.7205340756 6.9555 < 0.0001 220336.53899242 395693.9084636
D9 176047.058637547 44287.9095236006 3.9751 0.0001 88360.0799942304 263734.037280864
D10 336356.348092533 44294.0405185481 7.5937 < 0.0001 248657.230505906 424055.46567916

_STDS_DG38394D55

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GUID DG38394D55
Format Range FALSE
Variable Layout Columns
Variable Names In Cells TRUE
Variable Names In 2nd Cells TRUE
Data Set Ranges 2952639
Data Sheet Format 1
Formula Eval Cell 1
Num Stored Vars 15
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RegChart

Visitors 2671527 2762435 3262328 2977418 3060042 2952639 2988523 3182116 2750354 3014582 2814321 2635220 2913249 2769615 3020218 2933665 3048745 2943330 3122593 3207142 2847879 3109334 2851516 2772840 3054397 2914259 3292803 3242858 3258384 3007446 3204588 3170961 3125293 3333322 2928133 2856337 3048045 2950007 3396600 3290313 3370380 3222784 3388437 3252148 3173326 3303177 3097701 3073799 3175528 2977418 3408421 3301734 3341156 3157228 3369877 3341005 3278884 3384978 3124369 3054291 3156419 3015850 3456738 3314448 3380791 3282315 3378193 3353997 3268125 3384546 3129508 3075831 3138312 3107997 3423765 3265251 3395991 3179472 3222456 3211209 2936499 3039272 2821629 2739699 2765916 2858545 3202344 3171043 3199719 2980122 3181139 3092403 3062340 3153159 2904091 2780648 2877716 2856456 3224697 3199541 3262831 3106965 3330658 3201662 3123549 3332628 2933897 2884836 3126364 2884587 3406385 3354283 3369262 3324290 3472861 3290473 3294117 3422074 3026521 2957491 3154639 3069954 3531994 3324459 3451394 3392798 3443486 3340826 3353330 3521430 3102052

HWAdditive

Date Visitors L b S Forecast e e^2 APE Num Den
Jan-02 2,671,527 -251098 alpha 0.1882
Feb-02 2,762,435 -160190 beta 0.0000
Mar-02 3,262,328 339703 gamma 0.4636
Apr-02 2,977,418 54793
May-02 3,060,042 137417
Jun-02 2,952,639 30014
Jul-02 2,988,523 65898 excluding first two years
Aug-02 3,182,116 259491
Sep-02 2,750,354 -172271 ME 4222
Oct-02 3,014,582 91957 RMSE 102288
Nov-02 2,814,321 -108304 MAPE 2.60%
Dec-02 2,635,220 2922625.41666667 3254.3125 -287405 Thiel's U 0.5212
Jan-03 2,913,249 2876250.41074363 3254.3125 -117531
Feb-03 2,769,615 2828680.25626637 3254.3125 -113307
Mar-03 3,020,218 2931292.51404411 3254.3125 223437
Apr-03 2,933,665 2944691.90970004 3254.3125 24277
May-03 3,048,745 2992774.28234328 3254.3125 99657
Jun-03 2,943,330 2991759.66333744 3254.3125 -6354
Jul-03 3,122,593 3031422.96707912 3254.3125 77614
Aug-03 3,207,142 3115963.88613449 3254.3125 181457
Sep-03 2,847,879 3035738.26162163 3254.3125 -179498
Oct-03 3,109,334 3069534.28597203 3254.3125 67776
Nov-03 2,851,516 3010767.83630883 3254.3125 -131925
Dec-03 2,772,840 2914551.0019299 3254.3125 -219858
Jan-04 3,054,397 2921392.29660347 3254.3125 -1377 2800274.77607709 254122.223922906 64578104691.5238 0.0831988193 0.001135378 0.0021050425
Feb-04 2,914,259 2901369.46353673 3254.3125 -54799 2811339.96019948 102919.039800524 10592328753.4619 0.0353156805 0.0031956082 0.0168723836
Mar-04 3,292,803 3019719.49864101 3254.3125 246454 3128060.78167308 164742.218326916 27139998499.2734 0.0500309974 0.0035288803 0.0002300661
Apr-04 3,242,858 3068920.82550604 3254.3125 93663 3047251.08242522 195606.917574779 38262066203.1064 0.0603192978 0.0007123631 0.0000229226
May-04 3,258,384 3125970.12413718 3254.3125 114844 3171831.69172363 86552.3082763688 7491302067.96757 0.0265629552 0.0012548396 0.0059310056
Jun-04 3,007,446 3105112.03235601 3254.3125 -48688 3122870.06816798 -115424.068167978 13322715512.446 0.0383794316 0.0000382796 0.0042969732
Jul-04 3,204,588 3141079.32478952 3254.3125 71075 3185980.77148102 18607.2285189768 346228953.157425 0.0058064339 0.002334349 0.0001101113
Aug-04 3,170,961 3183491.62524117 3254.3125 91520 3325790.99230604 -154829.992306036 23972326517.4873 0.0488274666 0.0013858488 0.000207416
Sep-04 3,125,293 3141403.03764607 3254.3125 -103748 3007247.66576079 118045.334239211 13934700935.6471 0.0377709656 0.0014962108 0.0044306382
Oct-04 3,333,322 3192915.01410337 3254.3125 101449 3212432.90337709 120889.096622908 14614173682.3027 0.0362668523 0.0016673846 0.0147761318
Nov-04 2,928,133 3120903.49244849 3254.3125 -160134 3064244.60633318 -136111.606333178 18526369378.598 0.0464840929 0.0002682998 0.0006011999
Dec-04 2,856,337 3032384.91283521 3254.3125 -199547 2904299.40702373 -47962.407023727 2300392487.50965 0.0167915785 0.0000232841 0.0045046555
Jan-05 3,048,045 3037714.63531215 3254.3125 4051 3034262.13528394 13782.8647160633 189967359.781301 0.0045218705 0.0001407585 0.0010345373
Feb-05 2,950,007 3013539.14879707 3254.3125 -58848 2986169.5252391 -36162.5252390984 1307728231.66843 0.012258454 0.0020434092 0.0229180536
Mar-05 3,396,600 3134645.02523954 3254.3125 253641 3263247.63463409 133352.36536591 17782853348.6831 0.0392605445 0.0002991852 0.0009792002
Apr-05 3,290,313 3184206.7179854 3254.3125 99432 3231562.11227234 58750.8877276578 3451666808.78785 0.0178557139 0.0004280616 0.0005921513
May-05 3,370,380 3243494.84684701 3254.3125 120426 3302304.57305823 68075.4269417725 4634263753.3046 0.0201981459 0.0000538087 0.0019177476
Jun-05 3,222,784 3233077.00268966 3254.3125 -30887 3198060.76810102 24723.2318989751 611238195.5305 0.0076713897 0.0006321786 0.0026420207
Jul-05 3,388,437 3278330.04996192 3254.3125 89171 3307406.01648005 81030.9835199458 6566020290.20972 0.0239139708 0.0012742704 0.0016177924
Aug-05 3,252,148 3293267.52033584 3254.3125 30026 3373104.77815345 -120956.778153454 14630542181.264 0.0371928886 0.0000357603 0.0005874275
Sep-05 3,173,326 3253814.87728932 3254.3125 -92965 3192773.80939262 -19447.8093926189 378217290.171638 0.0061285255 0.0003041361 0.0016744077
Oct-05 3,303,177 3284836.86457888 3254.3125 62918 3358518.21466563 -55341.214665629 3062650040.66723 0.0167539356 0.0000838999 0.0038695326
Nov-05 3,097,701 3222128.49631781 3254.3125 -143580 3127957.0671686 -30256.0671686037 915429600.511056 0.0097672652 0.0002397374 0.0000595373
Dec-05 3,073,799 3159306.00447766 3254.3125 -146676 3025835.88036689 47963.1196331065 2300460844.93969 0.0156038569 0.0000084155 0.001095314
Jan-06 3,175,528 3165762.89225738 3254.3125 6700 3166611.05108911 8916.948910885 79511977.8793336 0.0028080209 0.0017476095 0.0038920723
Feb-06 2,977,418 3121887.30193928 3254.3125 -98544 3110169.10521214 -132751.105212139 17622855935.0444 0.044585982 0.0000990921 0.0209546768
Mar-06 3,408,421 3226180.79420418 3254.3125 220538 3378782.28786386 29638.7121361368 878453257.088785 0.008695731 0.0000633706 0.0009797529
Apr-06 3,301,734 3261751.89760394 3254.3125 71870 3328866.95505225 -27132.9550522477 736197249.867296 0.0082177895 0.0001798301 0.0001425585
May-06 3,341,156 3301998.46879632 3254.3125 82748 3385432.49857002 -44276.4985700194 1960408325.62093 0.0132518501 0.0012291276 0.0030304156
Jun-06 3,157,228 3271584.55200606 3254.3125 -69586 3274365.30599555 -117137.305995552 13721148455.8956 0.0371013136 0.0000034535 0.0045364361
Jul-06 3,369,877 3309503.85313948 3254.3125 75820 3364009.74362497 5867.2563750255 34424697.3702773 0.0017410892 0.0000002787 0.000073405
Aug-06 3,341,005 3323724.06643759 3254.3125 24117 3342783.89561535 -1778.8956153495 3164469.61030976 0.0005324433 0.000180369 0.0003457185
Sep-06 3,278,884 3300433.49146063 3254.3125 -59855 3234013.78864118 44870.2113588192 2013335867.3851 0.0136845986 0.0000313958 0.0010469587
Oct-06 3,384,978 3330825.31875387 3254.3125 58854 3366605.78614879 18372.2138512149 337538241.794771 0.0054275726 0.0003816776 0.0059274393
Nov-06 3,124,369 3267596.41561706 3254.3125 -143416 3190499.86422556 -66130.8642255613 4373291203.21962 0.0211661504 0.0005003022 0.000503082
Dec-06 3,054,291 3202496.0461507 3254.3125 -147385 3124175.12555647 -69884.1255564652 4883791004.7918 0.0228806376 0.0003365442 0.0011180696
Jan-07 3,156,419 3197727.87278288 3254.3125 -15558 3212450.39749672 -56031.3974967226 3139517505.43574 0.0177515715 0.0007525389 0.0019833064
Feb-07 3,015,850 3147599.19301743 3254.3125 -113939 3102438.28152123 -86588.2815212291 7497530496.79962 0.0287110704 0.0008008531 0.0213716022
Mar-07 3,456,738 3249917.20482946 3254.3125 214178 3371391.40877877 85346.5912212348 7284040633.08455 0.0246899219 0.0000093912 0.0016943996
Apr-07 3,314,448 3278227.35097142 3254.3125 55342 3325041.20338547 -10593.2033854658 112215957.965844 0.0031960687 0.000024966 0.0004006524
May-07 3,380,791 3315741.81269897 3254.3125 74543 3364230.03353649 16560.9664635053 274265610.205347 0.0048985478 0.0000947264 0.0008484459
Jun-07 3,282,315 3298998.56072208 3254.3125 -45059 3249410.61676654 32904.3832334578 1082698435.97426 0.0100247488 0.0000000013 0.0008532522
Jul-07 3,378,193 3330811.46794413 3254.3125 62635 3378072.51328288 120.4867171152 14517.0490011877 0.000035666 0.0000015352 0.0000513001
Aug-07 3,353,997 3342354.89740535 3254.3125 18333 3358182.75267003 -4185.7526700334 17520525.4146915 0.0012479894 0.0000276273 0.0006555077
Sep-07 3,268,125 3319764.31064343 3254.3125 -56046 3285754.17310988 -17629.1731098825 310787744.538205 0.0053942775 0.000000669 0.0012690108
Oct-07 3,384,546 3345672.37927056 3254.3125 49591 3381872.82602969 2673.1739703133 7145859.07556045 0.0007898176 0.0005042576 0.0056781773
Nov-07 3,129,508 3280647.32614936 3254.3125 -146997 3205510.28232478 -76002.2823247807 5776346918.57567 0.0242856968 0.0003760315 0.0002941876
Dec-07 3,075,831 3217011.02104954 3254.3125 -144508 3136516.95362303 -60685.9536230299 3682784967.13653 0.0197299376 0.0004659629 0.0004126397
Jan-08 3,138,312 3201915.38383669 3254.3125 -37833 3204707.42339021 -66395.4233902134 4408352247.1657 0.0211564126 0.0000285404 0.0000933089
Feb-08 3,107,997 3165442.16183823 3254.3125 -87747 3091231.11667245 16765.8833275489 281094843.752981 0.0053944336 0.0001730918 0.0103222661
Mar-08 3,423,765 3257000.71956659 3254.3125 192196 3382874.83554733 40890.1644526683 1672005548.96626 0.0119430406 0.0002162336 0.0021435191
Apr-08 3,265,251 3271609.61346838 3254.3125 26736 3315597.06895655 -50346.068956547 2534726659.37738 0.0154187439 0.0002035393 0.0016031857
May-08 3,395,991 3311685.62497791 3254.3125 79069 3349406.57976053 46584.4202394658 2170108209.04715 0.0137174746 0.0007087438 0.0040649852
Jun-08 3,179,472 3280967.84452323 3254.3125 -71224 3269880.89328867 -90408.8932886724 8173767985.68256 0.0284351909 0.001530875 0.0001827695
Jul-08 3,222,456 3284385.68296846 3254.3125 4884 3346857.28745225 -124401.287452254 15475680319.7784 0.0386044953 0.0008648007 0.0000121815
Aug-08 3,211,209 3276707.01296529 3254.3125 -20533 3305973.35372188 -94764.3537218771 8980282736.32504 0.0295104908 0.0080109785 0.0073183267
Sep-08 2,936,499 3204780.67595468 3254.3125 -154443 3223915.27345055 -287416.273450554 82608114244.2038 0.097877191 0.005529192 0.0012248936
Oct-08 3,039,272 3185608.8156194 3254.3125 -41245 3257625.76995407 -218353.769954066 47678368853.1533 0.0718441028 0.0052510029 0.0051280266
Nov-08 2,821,629 3092093.63297496 3254.3125 -204239 3041866.21079855 -220237.210798546 48504429020.3231 0.0780532135 0.0055994428 0.0008431136
Dec-08 2,739,699 3001226.94201746 3254.3125 -198761 2950839.87417939 -211140.874179392 44580468749.2377 0.0770671793 0.0053682093 0.0000915715
Jan-09 2,765,916 2952467.86207527 3254.3125 -106782 2966648.44441216 -200732.444412164 40293514239.6827 0.0725735866 0.0000116241 0.0011215431
Feb-09 2,858,545 2920922.59870655 3254.3125 -75985 2867975.14082294 -9430.1408229414 88927555.9405066 0.0032989303 0.000904509 0.0144650238
Mar-09 3,202,344 3012691.24201489 3254.3125 191017 3116373.0996016 85970.9003983978 7390995715.31124 0.0268462415 0.0016066865 0.0000955389
Apr-09 3,171,043 3050163.55952037 3254.3125 70383 3042681.8621209 128361.137879099 16476581717.617 0.040479154 0.0004495223 0.0000817773
May-09 3,199,719 3095828.6521249 3254.3125 90577 3132486.73030074 67232.2696992606 4520178088.91411 0.0210119294 0.0002225767 0.0047100891
Jun-09 2,980,122 3063293.34014485 3254.3125 -76763 3027858.62359308 -47736.6235930822 2278785232.06761 0.0160183454 0.0013551938 0.0045498543
Jul-09 3,181,139 3089030.91699902 3254.3125 45323 3071431.8953659 109707.104634099 12035648807.1972 0.0344867372 0.0000421398 0.0007780982
Aug-09 3,092,403 3088443.49949393 3254.3125 -9178 3071752.58720534 20650.412794665 426439548.590063 0.0066777884 0.0016361364 0.0000945088
Sep-09 3,062,340 3057109.64280507 3254.3125 -80415 2937254.82627468 125085.173725317 15646300685.8928 0.0408462724 0.0019158652 0.0008795218
Oct-09 3,153,159 3070064.71651356 3254.3125 16401 3019118.54999147 134040.450008533 17966842238.4902 0.0425098925 0.000123288 0.0062394186
Nov-09 2,904,091 3003038.8847924 3254.3125 -155424 2869079.86175214 35011.1382478634 1225779801.411 0.0120557993 0.0000856988 0.00180681
Dec-09 2,780,648 2926427.21040629 3254.3125 -174197 2807532.2336323 -26884.2336323042 722762017.996318 0.009668334 0.0003886262 0.0012185971
Jan-10 2,877,716 2899807.93030579 3254.3125 -67518 2822899.40812899 54816.5918710059 3004858744.35244 0.0190486455 0.0001042264 0.0000545796
Feb-10 2,856,456 2879992.62333148 3254.3125 -51669 2827077.01685923 29378.9831407685 863124650.385559 0.0102851166 0.0027735214 0.0166191652
Mar-10 3,224,697 2983448.13809613 3254.3125 214306 3074263.93597914 150433.064020863 22630106750.705 0.0466502943 0.0019515539 0.0000608563
Apr-10 3,199,541 3039999.9174505 3254.3125 111719 3057085.51001569 142455.489984313 20293566626.6707 0.044523727 0.0016255676 0.0003912865
May-10 3,262,831 3101619.7991089 3254.3125 123324 3133830.85691154 129000.143088456 16641036916.8422 0.0395362626 0.0005840628 0.0022819894
Jun-10 3,106,965 3090822.05429022 3254.3125 -33690 3028110.88856534 78854.1114346571 6217970890.14932 0.0253797875 0.0037893881 0.005183607
Jul-10 3,330,658 3147126.01335141 3254.3125 109400 3139399.43062032 191258.569379676 36579840361.1602 0.057423659 0.0003295075 0.001500004
Aug-10 3,201,662 3158303.59953867 3254.3125 15179 3141202.76008357 60459.2399164345 3655319691.27299 0.0188837047 0.000175431 0.0005952449
Sep-10 3,123,549 3139272.54807026 3254.3125 -50423 3081142.87245513 42406.1275448743 1798279653.35215 0.0135762645 0.0030924532 0.0044804763
Oct-10 3,332,628 3181387.05500444 3254.3125 78916 3158927.97042962 173700.029570383 30171700272.7519 0.0521210377 0.0008180855 0.0143148343
Nov-10 2,933,897 3108207.44106466 3254.3125 -164180 3029217.4704999 -95320.4704998955 9085992096.32145 0.0324893718 0.000319331 0.0002796296
Dec-10 2,884,836 3036033.66686807 3254.3125 -163534 2937264.25368923 -52428.2536892281 2748721784.90206 0.018173738 0.002871725 0.0070095916
Jan-11 3,126,364 3042968.4739982 3254.3125 2449 2971770.02916487 154593.970835126 23899295818.5716 0.0494484874 0.0012372129 0.0059806844
Feb-11 2,884,587 3006082.48170476 3254.3125 -84042 2994553.84439977 -109966.844399774 12092706867.244 0.0381222145 0.004013401 0.0327218264
Mar-11 3,406,385 3124383.12484386 3254.3125 245691 3223642.3501534 182742.649846605 33394876072.9587 0.0536470921 0.0011382989 0.0002339491
Apr-11 3,354,283 3191311.79214381 3254.3125 135480 3239356.04603777 114926.953962228 13208204747.0361 0.0342627482 0.000234556 0.0000199419
May-11 3,369,262 3250648.41495895 3254.3125 121140 3317890.41721586 51371.5827841368 2639039517.74742 0.0152471321 0.0009542054 0.0001781619
Jun-11 3,324,290 3260808.53569141 3254.3125 11361 3220212.77344467 104077.226555334 10832069087.4504 0.0313081069 0.0008940501 0.0019974241
Jul-11 3,472,861 3323942.23683694 3254.3125 127722 3373462.49805116 99398.5019488414 9880062189.67382 0.0286215031 0.0002233605 0.002758149
Aug-11 3,290,473 3323142.2750437 3254.3125 -7004 3342375.77104045 -51902.7710404494 2693897641.67731 0.0157736505 0.0000304023 0.0000012264
Sep-11 3,294,117 3310833.43164051 3254.3125 -34796 3275973.89459599 18143.1054040128 329172273.70112 0.0055077295 0.0000778804 0.0015088639
Oct-11 3,422,074 3349259.50120098 3254.3125 76087 3393003.45957041 29070.5404295889 845096320.868361 0.0084950064 0.0022358697 0.0133607418
Nov-11 3,026,521 3260271.64798616 3254.3125 -196434 3188333.71455991 -161812.714559906 26183354593.2455 0.0534649238 0.0022169017 0.0005202216
Dec-11 2,957,491 3175161.05197192 3254.3125 -188633 3099991.67068653 -142500.670686527 20306441146.1101 0.04818296 0.0000786299 0.00444363
Jan-12 3,154,639 3174401.86926831 3254.3125 -7849 3180864.10052806 -26225.1005280628 687755897.706999 0.0083131859 0.0000562518 0.0007206322
Feb-12 3,069,954 3141573.20233875 3254.3125 -78283 3093614.17589806 -23660.1758980639 559803923.527325 0.0077070132 0.0021237267 0.022651419
Mar-12 3,531,994 3263920.47957808 3254.3125 256068 3390518.51923116 141475.480768845 20015311658.7758 0.0400554137 0.0004901526 0.0034525723
Apr-12 3,324,459 3303449.79716556 3254.3125 82409 3402655.19206948 -78196.1920694821 6114644454.16733 0.0235214789 0.0000501792 0.0014578768
May-12 3,451,394 3356728.81241803 3254.3125 108866 3427844.42910789 23549.5708921077 554582289.202405 0.0068232056 0.0000386395 0.0002882351
Jun-12 3,392,798 3368296.22737575 3254.3125 17453 3371343.90003767 21454.0999623253 460278405.193446 0.0063234239 0.0002703559 0.0002232001
Jul-12 3,443,486 3409122.57697808 3254.3125 84439 3499272.08829136 -55786.0882913573 3112087646.85111 0.016200469 0.0003513575 0.0008888037
Aug-12 3,340,826 3397594.13477873 3254.3125 -30076 3405372.53391546 -64546.5339154648 4166255040.50024 0.0193205315 0.0000145027 0.0000140085
Sep-12 3,353,330 3385358.32091588 3254.3125 -33513 3366052.69149501 -12722.6914950106 161866878.877216 0.003794047 0.0002862053 0.0025129442
Oct-12 3,521,430 3427924.87695824 3254.3125 84162 3464699.6954972 56730.304502801 3218327448.98053 0.0161100191 0.0014198943 0.0141831654
Nov-12 3,102,052 3332277.46446872 3254.3125 -212101 3234744.70928812 -132692.709288125 17607355098.2228 0.042775785
Dec-12 1 3146899.00039
Jan-13 2 3330937.05450976
Feb-13 3 3263757.87112355
Mar-13 4 3601362.72770164
Apr-13 5 3430958.15368078
May-13 6 3460669.22662621
Jun-13 7 3372510.87206187
Jul-13 8 3442750.70717712
Aug-13 9 3331490.37859198
Sep-13 10 3331307.87514698
Oct-13 11 3452237.34629629
Nov-13 12 3159228.51776004
Dec-13 13 3185950.75039

AddChart

Visitors 2671527 2762435 3262328 2977418 3060042 2952639 2988523 3182116 2750354 3014582 2814321 2635220 2913249 2769615 3020218 2933665 3048745 2943330 3122593 3207142 2847879 3109334 2851516 2772840 3054397 2914259 3292803 3242858 3258384 3007446 3204588 3170961 3125293 3333322 2928133 2856337 3048045 2950007 3396600 3290313 3370380 3222784 3388437 3252148 3173326 3303177 3097701 3073799 3175528 2977418 3408421 3301734 3341156 3157228 3369877 3341005 3278884 3384978 3124369 3054291 3156419 3015850 3456738 3314448 3380791 3282315 3378193 3353997 3268125 3384546 3129508 3075831 3138312 3107997 3423765 3265251 3395991 3179472 3222456 3211209 2936499 3039272 2821629 2739699 2765916 2858545 3202344 3171043 3199719 2980122 3181139 3092403 3062340 3153159 2904091 2780648 2877716 2856456 3224697 3199541 3262831 3106965 3330658 3201662 3123549 3332628 2933897 2884836 3126364 2884587 3406385 3354283 3369262 3324290 3472861 3290473 3294117 3422074 3026521 2957491 3154639 3069954 3531994 3324459 3451394 3392798 3443486 3340826 3353330 3521430 3102052 Forecast 2800274.7760770936 2811339.9601994758 3128060.7816730835 3047251.0824252209 3171831.6917236312 3122870.068167978 3185980.7714810232 3325790.9923060364 3007247.6657607886 3212432.9033770924 3064244.606333178 2904299.407023727 3034262.1352839367 2986169.5252390984 3263247.6346340901 3231562.1122723422 3302304.5730582275 3198060.7681010249 3307406.0164800542 3373104.7781534544 3192773.8093926189 3358518.214665629 3127957.0671686037 3025835.8803668935 3166611.051089115 3110169.105212139 3378782.2878638632 3328866.9550522477 3385432.4985700194 3274365.3059955519 3364009.7436249745 3342783.8956153495 3234013.7886411808 3366605.7861487851 3190499.8642255613 3124175.1255564652 3212450.3974967226 3102438.2815212291 3371391.4087787652 3325041.2033854658 3364230.0335364947 3249410.6167665422 3378072.5132828848 3358182.7526700334 3285754.1731098825 3381872.8260296867 3205510.2823247807 3136516.9536230299 3204707.4233902134 3091231.1166724511 3382874.8355473317 3315597.068956547 3349406.5797605342 3269880.8932886724 3346857.2874522544 3305973.3537218771 3223915.2734505543 3257625.7699540663 3041866.2107985457 2950839.8741793917 2966648.4444121644 2867975.1408229414 3116373.0996016022 3042681 .8621209012 3132486.7303007394 3027858.6235930822 3071431.8953659008 3071752.587205335 2937254.8262746828 3019118.5499914666 2869079.8617521366 2807532.2336323042 2822899.4081289941 2827077.0168592315 3074263.9359791372 3057085.510015687 3133830.8569115438 3028110.8885653429 3139399.4306203243 3141202.7600835655 3081142.8724551257 3158927.970429617 3029217.4704998955 2937264.2536892281 2971770.0291648745 2994553.8443997735 3223642.3501533954 3239356.0460377717 3317890.4172158632 3220212.7734446656 3373462.4980511586 3342375.7710404494 3275973.8945959872 3393003.4595704111 3188333.7145599057 3099991.6706865272 3180864.1005280628 3093614.1758980639 3390518.519231155 3402655.1920694821 3427844.4291078923 3371343.9000376747 3499272.0882913573 3405372.5339154648 3366052.6914950106 3464699.695497199 3234744.7092881249 3146899.0003899955 3330937.0545097636 3263757.8711235519 3601362.727701643 3430958.1536807795 3460669.2266262113 3372510.8720618724 3442750.707177124 3331490.3785919789 3331307.8751469776 3452237.3462962876 3159228.517760043 3185950.7503899955

HWMultiplcative

Date Visitors L b S Forecast e e^2 APE Num Den
Jan-02 2,671,527 0.9141 alpha 0.5694 shifts the level
Feb-02 2,762,435 0.9452 beta 0.0000 constant trend
Mar-02 3,262,328 1.1162 gamma 1.0000 unstable seasonality
Apr-02 2,977,418 1.0187
May-02 3,060,042 1.0470
Jun-02 2,952,639 1.0103
Jul-02 2,988,523 1.0225 excluding first two years
Aug-02 3,182,116 1.0888
Sep-02 2,750,354 0.9411 ME -895
Oct-02 3,014,582 1.0315 RMSE 78353
Nov-02 2,814,321 0.9629 MAPE 1.91%
Dec-02 2,635,220 2922625.41666667 3254.3125 0.9017 Thiel's U 0.3922
Jan-03 2,913,249 3074609.17133695 3254.3125 0.9475
Feb-03 2,769,615 2993790.98018574 3254.3125 0.9251
Mar-03 3,020,218 2831157.63407979 3254.3125 1.0668
Apr-03 2,933,665 2860187.83408449 3254.3125 1.0257
May-03 3,048,745 2890999.19436939 3254.3125 1.0546
Jun-03 2,943,330 2905162.49748592 3254.3125 1.0131
Jul-03 3,122,593 2991168.57898074 3254.3125 1.0439
Aug-03 3,207,142 2966627.43394077 3254.3125 1.0811
Sep-03 2,847,879 3001984.98504953 3254.3125 0.9487
Oct-03 3,109,334 3010505.33420243 3254.3125 1.0328
Nov-03 2,851,516 2983859.79049788 3254.3125 0.9556
Dec-03 2,772,840 3037304.5257306 3254.3125 0.9129
Jan-04 3,054,397 3144774.90490941 3254.3125 0.9713 2880985.68022704 173411.319772958 30071485825.3992 0.0567743223 0.0000004097 0.0021050425
Feb-04 2,914,259 3149232.67637161 3254.3125 0.9254 2912303.83105584 1955.1689441586 3822685.60020222 0.0006708975 0.0005802907 0.0168723836
Mar-04 3,292,803 3115013.71569 3254.3125 1.0571 3363005.23642531 -70202.2364253122 4928353999.11544 0.0213199017 0.0001824959 0.0002300661
Apr-04 3,242,858 3142963.72485933 3254.3125 1.0318 3198375.17868758 44482.8213124224 1978721391.9129 0.0137171659 0.0003367143 0.0000229226
May-04 3,258,384 3114086.5733942 3254.3125 1.0463 3317889.7209625 -59505.7209625039 3540930827.26738 0.0182623414 0.0021433141 0.0059310056
Jun-04 3,007,446 3032555.3899639 3254.3125 0.9917 3158295.94992334 -150849.949923342 22755707391.8748 0.0501588224 0.0001384923 0.0042969732
Jul-04 3,204,588 3055115.20692223 3254.3125 1.0489 3169195.54212357 35392.4578764299 1252626074.53486 0.0110443083 0.0017841947 0.0001101113
Aug-04 3,170,961 2987070.58079774 3254.3125 1.0616 3306321.92807217 -135360.928072172 18322580848.5598 0.0426876673 0.0082762984 0.000207416
Sep-04 3,125,293 3163482.22163624 3254.3125 0.9879 2836817.47550759 288475.524492409 83218128231.1702 0.0923035135 0.0004015654 0.0044306382
Oct-04 3,333,322 3201265.68166439 3254.3125 1.0413 3270693.94721421 62628.0527857924 3922272995.74 0.0187884797 0.0016222368 0.0147761318
Nov-04 2,928,133 3124521.48116498 3254.3125 0.9371 3062389.21305178 -134256.213051782 18024730743.0056 0.0458504491 0.0000000952 0.0006011999
Dec-04 2,856,337 3128339.19724215 3254.3125 0.9131 2855433.74338462 903.2566153794 815872.513226576 0.000316229 0.0000051001 0.0045046555
Jan-05 3,048,045 3135375.38651356 3254.3125 0.9721 3041594.42586605 6450.5741339531 41609906.6576245 0.0021162989 0.00022342 0.0010345373
Feb-05 2,950,007 3166664.91341475 3254.3125 0.9316 2904447.14251982 45559.8574801814 2075700613.61444 0.0154439828 0.0002405932 0.0229180536
Mar-05 3,396,600 3194568.48628991 3254.3125 1.0632 3350842.24004378 45757.7599562239 2093772596.21141 0.0134716363 0.0000072533 0.0009792002
Apr-05 3,290,313 3192774.23815717 3254.3125 1.0305 3299460.68534481 -9147.6853448143 83680147.1677307 0.002780187 0.0000636822 0.0005921513
May-05 3,370,380 3210318.13921757 3254.3125 1.0499 3344122.92258589 26257.077414107 689434114.33041 0.0077905392 0.0001129503 0.0019177476
Jun-05 3,222,784 3234139.80319752 3254.3125 0.9965 3186964.25055017 35819.7494498263 1283054450.64833 0.0111145362 0.0000051984 0.0026420207
Jul-05 3,388,437 3233405.07627903 3254.3125 1.0479 3395784.98085063 -7347.9808506272 53992822.5811837 0.0021685458 0.0029412798 0.0016177924
Aug-05 3,252,148 3138084.31904036 3254.3125 1.0363 3435915.02593861 -183767.025938611 33770319822.322 0.0565063539 0.0004620926 0.0005874275
Sep-05 3,173,326 3181633.93025041 3254.3125 0.9974 3103416.72497364 69909.2750263615 4887306734.71145 0.0220302846 0.0000170208 0.0016744077
Oct-05 3,303,177 3177728.54980257 3254.3125 1.0395 3316268.97070964 -13091.9707096433 171399697.062159 0.0039634481 0.0012472293 0.0038695326
Nov-05 3,097,701 3251865.95050398 3254.3125 0.9526 2981045.56095731 116655.439042693 13608491458.2436 0.037658715 0.0010779519 0.0000595373
Dec-05 3,073,799 3318549.35481923 3254.3125 0.9262 2972094.73156383 101704.268436168 10343758218.1362 0.0330874818 0.000305808 0.001095314
Jan-06 3,175,528 3290317.99623832 3254.3125 0.9651 3229280.64776727 -53752.6477672672 2889347141.99189 0.0169271528 0.000817843 0.0038920723
Feb-06 2,977,418 3238061.83983634 3254.3125 0.9195 3068231.603737 -90813.6037369999 8247110623.70084 0.0305007909 0.0001618867 0.0209546768
Mar-06 3,408,421 3221027.26986476 3254.3125 1.0582 3446304.09092018 -37883.0909201838 1435128577.66691 0.0111145574 0.0000381375 0.0009797529
Apr-06 3,301,734 3212650.90277407 3254.3125 1.0277 3322782.88872647 -21048.8887264733 443055716.619456 0.0063751013 0.0001129467 0.0001425585
May-06 3,341,156 3196872.83816272 3254.3125 1.0451 3376245.63966022 -35089.6396602183 1231282811.48396 0.0105022452 0.0000898058 0.0030304156
Jun-06 3,157,228 3182033.69714507 3254.3125 0.9922 3188890.77365328 -31662.7736532814 1002531235.41893 0.0100286624 0.0001018573 0.0045364361
Jul-06 3,369,877 3202602.4211214 3254.3125 1.0522 3338012.86659646 31864.1334035369 1015322997.55839 0.0094555776 0.0000305342 0.000073405
Aug-06 3,341,005 3216088.40183962 3254.3125 1.0388 3322383.81909434 18621.1809056625 346748378.321409 0.0055735268 0.0004136138 0.0003457185
Sep-06 3,278,884 3258135.867855 3254.3125 1.0064 3210936.31834648 67947.6816535182 4616887442.08786 0.0207228074 0.0000024798 0.0010469587
Oct-06 3,384,978 3258561.63303228 3254.3125 1.0388 3390141.37392063 -5163.3739206349 26660430.2442922 0.0015253789 0.0000257885 0.0059274393
Nov-06 3,124,369 3272091.53531597 3254.3125 0.9549 3107179.28416617 17189.7158338325 295486330.447912 0.00550182 0.0000430894 0.000503082
Dec-06 3,054,291 3287954.40693578 3254.3125 0.9289 3033781.84719488 20509.1528051188 420625348.783713 0.0067148654 0.0000427441 0.0011180696
Jan-07 3,156,419 3279426.81440369 3254.3125 0.9625 3176387.64835527 -19968.6483552726 398746917.136531 0.0063263617 0.0000006763 0.0019833064
Feb-07 3,015,850 3281073.64257101 3254.3125 0.9192 3018445.7119563 -2595.7119562975 6737720.56006586 0.00086069 0.0000383091 0.0213716022
Mar-07 3,456,738 3274283.02650414 3254.3125 1.0557 3475404.40830267 -18666.4083026708 348434798.922018 0.0054000067 0.0002437803 0.0016943996
Apr-07 3,314,448 3247633.14032298 3254.3125 1.0206 3368419.66212864 -53971.6621286403 2912940312.92811 0.0162837559 0.0000257452 0.0004006524
May-07 3,380,791 3241724.54600309 3254.3125 1.0429 3397608.43429937 -16817.4342993717 282826096.413683 0.0049744081 0.0003432126 0.0008484459
Jun-07 3,282,315 3280924.29078111 3254.3125 1.0004 3219682.46931701 62632.5306829899 3922833899.75567 0.0190818159 0.0005577992 0.0008532522
Jul-07 3,378,193 3242226.55983442 3254.3125 1.0419 3455713.97376697 -77520.9737669691 6009501373.7791 0.0229474674 0.0000269646 0.0000513001
Aug-07 3,353,997 3235865.24646564 3254.3125 1.0365 3371539.10808898 -17542.1080889837 307725556.205587 0.0052302098 0.0000062402 0.0006555077
Sep-07 3,268,125 3243860.33561215 3254.3125 1.0075 3259746.59337078 8378.4066292155 70197697.6444816 0.0025636739 0.0000122942 0.0012690108
Oct-07 3,384,546 3253396.16414862 3254.3125 1.0403 3373086.9276544 11459.0723455991 131310339.021673 0.0033857044 0.0000345113 0.0056781773
Nov-07 3,129,508 3268507.86217456 3254.3125 0.9575 3109625.04662744 19882.9533725567 395331834.815265 0.0063533799 0.0001366379 0.0002941876
Dec-07 3,075,831 3294186.62927885 3254.3125 0.9337 3039249.49298851 36581.5070114867 1338206655.23145 0.011893211 0.0001327993 0.0004126397
Jan-08 3,138,312 3276470.45330149 3254.3125 0.9578 3173757.4366029 -35445.4366028989 1256378975.97012 0.0112944273 0.0008854808 0.0000933089
Feb-08 3,107,997 3337579.22635219 3254.3125 0.9312 3014610.1588844 93386.8411155981 8721102093.54996 0.0300472752 0.0011032326 0.0103222661
Mar-08 3,423,765 3285152.31107442 3254.3125 1.0422 3526996.9492389 -103231.949238904 10656835343.6636 0.0301515873 0.0007034821 0.0021435191
Apr-08 3,265,251 3237738.92710394 3254.3125 1.0085 3356060.33248234 -90809.3324823366 8246334865.88754 0.0278108276 0.0000238989 0.0016031857
May-08 3,395,991 3249709.06414495 3254.3125 1.0450 3380028.32135245 15962.6786475494 254807109.604928 0.0047004479 0.0004860549 0.0040649852
Jun-08 3,179,472 3210347.63377532 3254.3125 0.9904 3254342.23386799 -74870.2338679931 5605551919.44798 0.0235480086 0.0015682818 0.0001827695
Jul-08 3,222,456 3144788.88477425 3254.3125 1.0247 3348367.98087549 -125911.98087549 15853826927.9898 0.0390732972 0.0002579952 0.0000121815
Aug-08 3,211,209 3119607.39228976 3254.3125 1.0294 3262968.83068933 -51759.8306893283 2679080072.98793 0.0161184871 0.0042653236 0.0073183267
Sep-08 2,936,499 3004324.96572419 3254.3125 0.9774 3146221.27744599 -209722.277445992 43983433657.1336 0.0714191551 0.0009299302 0.0012248936
Oct-08 3,039,272 2958563.43349489 3254.3125 1.0273 3128819.8246402 -89547.8246401954 8018812897.79118 0.029463577 0.0000219261 0.0051280266
Nov-08 2,821,629 2953353.87613259 3254.3125 0.9554 2835860.49704841 -14231.4970484111 202535508.238932 0.0050437166 0.0000550223 0.0008431136
Dec-08 2,739,699 2943843.80751372 3254.3125 0.9307 2760628.99430831 -20929.994308311 438064661.745932 0.0076395233 0.000431525 0.0000915715
Jan-09 2,765,916 2913263.53081186 3254.3125 0.9494 2822828.26200889 -56912.2620088854 3239005566.96802 0.02057628 0.0026597455 0.0011215431
Feb-09 2,858,545 3003745.64819824 3254.3125 0.9517 2715899.18701849 142645.812981508 20347827961.1554 0.0499015454 0.0005736942 0.0144650238
Mar-09 3,202,344 3044409.44649154 3254.3125 1.0519 3133876.37636591 68467.6236340874 4687815486.09904 0.0213804712 0.0009266496 0.0000955389
Apr-09 3,171,043 3102705.97707135 3254.3125 1.0220 3073560.70417083 97482.2958291736 9502798000.12653 0.0307413983 0.0002109128 0.0000817773
May-09 3,199,719 3080865.91071442 3254.3125 1.0386 3245771.53878758 -46052.5387875782 2120836328.7814 0.0143926822 0.0005397362 0.0047100891
Jun-09 2,980,122 3041379.23173136 3254.3125 0.9799 3054458.58609787 -74336.5860978668 5525928032.68556 0.0249441419 0.0004232737 0.0045498543
Jul-09 3,181,139 3078705.26698887 3254.3125 1.0333 3119827.11459943 61311.8854005709 3759147291.37274 0.0192735638 0.0006332672 0.0007780982
Aug-09 3,092,403 3037675.01028287 3254.3125 1.0180 3172455.7275224 -80052.7275224049 6408439183.7764 0.0258869001 0.0008482052 0.0000945088
Sep-09 3,062,340 3093399.01425358 3254.3125 0.9900 2972276.97313032 90063.0268696765 8111348808.92808 0.0294098718 0.0000834211 0.0008795218
Oct-09 3,153,159 3081149.18523744 3254.3125 1.0234 3181128.93682029 -27969.9368202928 782317365.731173 0.0088704492 0.000183751 0.0062394186
Nov-09 2,904,091 3058928.08856047 3254.3125 0.9494 2946833.57360278 -42742.573602776 1826927598.18873 0.0147180559 0.0005675203 0.00180681
Dec-09 2,780,648 3019851.47582488 3254.3125 0.9208 2849831.24464353 -69183.2446435289 4786321339.40638 0.0248802598 0.0000073009 0.0012185971
Jan-10 2,877,716 3027612.08785668 3254.3125 0.9505 2870202.63741475 7513.3625852475 56450617.3373969 0.002610877 0.0000939882 0.0000545796
Feb-10 2,856,456 3014172.89220026 3254.3125 0.9477 2884354.73875909 -27898.7387590851 778339624.347676 0.0097669065 0.0003154716 0.0166191652
Mar-10 3,224,697 3044892.71297494 3254.3125 1.0591 3173962.00289169 50734.9971083133 2574039931.58055 0.0157332602 0.0006827328 0.0000608563
Apr-10 3,199,541 3095092.929841 3254.3125 1.0337 3115282.3888349 84258.6111651026 7099513555.47195 0.0263345934 0.0001974264 0.0003912865
May-10 3,262,831 3122996.06695283 3254.3125 1.0448 3217874.72328427 44956.2767157312 2021066816.1414 0.0137783038 0.0001792261 0.0022819894
Jun-10 3,106,965 3151635.34972005 3254.3125 0.9858 3063283.73525852 43681.2647414813 1908052889.41538 0.0140591428 0.000519268 0.005183607
Jul-10 3,330,658 3193907.44178673 3254.3125 1.0428 3259858.17895484 70799.8210451561 5012614660.02613 0.0212570072 0.0002541835 0.001500004
Aug-10 3,201,662 3167459.19692288 3254.3125 1.0108 3254763.12211585 -53101.1221158453 2819729169.96192 0.0165854866 0.000022924 0.0005952449
Sep-10 3,123,549 3161895.96473801 3254.3125 0.9879 3138878.22544257 -15329.2254425674 234985152.669055 0.0049076309 0.0008961286 0.0044804763
Oct-10 3,332,628 3217179.25222859 3254.3125 1.0359 3239123.28907775 93504.7109222501 8743130964.65355 0.0280573502 0.0013738258 0.0143148343
Nov-10 2,933,897 3146344.06811272 3254.3125 0.9325 3057421.37790086 -123524.377900859 15258271935.7942 0.042102493 0.0000271299 0.0002796296
Dec-10 2,884,836 3140147.90776172 3254.3125 0.9187 2900117.60775809 -15281.6077580936 233527535.672227 0.0052972189 0.0023079441 0.0070095916
Jan-11 3,126,364 3226431.44715089 3254.3125 0.9690 2987773.40068239 138590.599317606 19207354219.2132 0.0443296428 0.0031729626 0.0059806844
Feb-11 2,884,587 3123868.24325399 3254.3125 0.9234 3060692.13552478 -176105.135524781 31013018758.2015 0.0610503811 0.0010755658 0.0327218264
Mar-11 3,406,385 3177988.85360096 3254.3125 1.0719 3311782.60606755 94602.3939324548 8949612937.75135 0.0277720792 0.0003718249 0.0002339491
Apr-11 3,354,283 3217425.27601229 3254.3125 1.0425 3288598.49175279 65684.5082472148 4314454623.67843 0.0195822798 0.0000017001 0.0000199419
May-11 3,369,262 3223063.34561524 3254.3125 1.0454 3364888.3883221 4373.6116779037 19128479.1090955 0.0012980919 0.001819078 0.0001781619
Jun-11 3,324,290 3309322.79484488 3254.3125 1.0045 3180588.78338714 143701.216612861 20650039656.0164 0.0432276416 0.000030811 0.0019974241
Jul-11 3,472,861 3322653.13306647 3254.3125 1.0452 3454408.63402823 18452.3659717687 340489809.956089 0.0053133039 0.0004220766 0.002758149
Aug-11 3,290,473 3285713.23515413 3254.3125 1.0014 3361821.20177964 -71348.2017796403 5090565897.18826 0.0216832661 0.0001873408 0.0000012264
Sep-11 3,294,117 3314928.38228029 3254.3125 0.9937 3249079.4792354 45037.5207646005 2028378276.62182 0.0136721072 0.0000212411 0.0015088639
Oct-11 3,422,074 3309837.02544864 3254.3125 1.0339 3437255.95957391 -15181.9595739096 230491896.503827 0.004436479 0.0003374642 0.0133607418
Nov-11 3,026,521 3274702.0964347 3254.3125 0.9242 3089385.18061187 -62864.1806118679 3951905204.00155 0.0207711034 0.0003177442 0.0005202216
Dec-11 2,957,491 3244517.17088374 3254.3125 0.9115 3011439.88522057 -53948.8852205654 2910482216.54174 0.0182414368 0.0000065981 0.00444363
Jan-12 3,154,639 3252235.84969327 3254.3125 0.9700 3147042.17715328 7596.8228467237 57711717.3645035 0.0024081433 0.0004093642 0.0007206322
Feb-12 3,069,954 3294850.47788808 3254.3125 0.9317 3006126.97759259 63827.0224074121 4073888789.39628 0.0207908726 0.0000010458 0.022651419
Mar-12 3,531,994 3296436.94213204 3254.3125 1.0715 3535133.44569357 -3139.4456935674 9856119.26285886 0.0008888593 0.0010710141 0.0034525723
Apr-12 3,324,459 3236556.10097254 3254.3125 1.0272 3440048.27809983 -115589.278099826 13360881211.6388 0.0347693499 0.0003778879 0.0014578768
May-12 3,451,394 3275013.55603388 3254.3125 1.0539 3386768.71745865 64625.2825413458 4176427143.54877 0.0187244002 0.0008345083 0.0002882351
Jun-12 3,392,798 3334786.94147824 3254.3125 1.0174 3293094.62034491 99703.379655086 9940763914.64621 0.0293867715 0.0001795227 0.0002232001
Jul-12 3,443,486 3313275.0039006 3254.3125 1.0393 3488944.77487434 -45458.7748743403 2066500213.07595 0.0132013822 0.0000320427 0.0008888037
Aug-12 3,340,826 3327612.86527101 3254.3125 1.0040 3321333.7221782 19492.2778217965 379948894.682099 0.0058345684 0.0001685608 0.0000140085
Sep-12 3,353,330 3355722.08954116 3254.3125 0.9993 3309955.73047338 43374.2695266204 1881327256.96791 0.0129346857 0.0002096193 0.0025129442
Oct-12 3,521,430 3385715.95017806 3254.3125 1.0401 3472879.69880648 48550.3011935218 2357131745.98169 0.0137870982 0.0000729513 0.0141831654
Nov-12 3,102,052 3370438.84195468 3254.3125 0.9204 3132129.08115753 -30077.0811575307 904630810.956686 0.0096958662
Dec-12 1 3075239.4318023
Jan-13 2 3275608.12700935
Feb-13 3 3149479.48117374
Mar-13 4 3625231.37127514
Apr-13 5 3478691.40321709
May-13 6 3572536.01676024
Jun-13 7 3452246.55689473
Jul-13 8 3529954.01487205
Aug-13 9 3413227.13932836
Sep-13 10 3400556.18873029
Oct-13 11 3542772.87228696
Nov-13 12 3137994.07308647
Dec-13 13 3110836.46922768

MultChart

Visitors 2671527 2762435 3262328 2977418 3060042 2952639 2988523 3182116 2750354 3014582 2814321 2635220 2913249 2769615 3020218 2933665 3048745 2943330 3122593 3207142 2847879 3109334 2851516 2772840 3054397 2914259 3292803 3242858 3258384 3007446 3204588 3170961 3125293 3333322 2928133 2856337 3048045 2950007 3396600 3290313 3370380 3222784 3388437 3252148 3173326 3303177 3097701 3073799 3175528 2977418 3408421 3301734 3341156 3157228 3369877 3341005 3278884 3384978 3124369 3054291 3156419 3015850 3456738 3314448 3380791 3282315 3378193 3353997 3268125 3384546 3129508 3075831 3138312 3107997 3423765 3265251 3395991 3179472 3222456 3211209 2936499 3039272 2821629 2739699 2765916 2858545 3202344 3171043 3199719 2980122 3181139 3092403 3062340 3153159 2904091 2780648 2877716 2856456 3224697 3199541 3262831 3106965 3330658 3201662 3123549 3332628 2933897 2884836 3126364 2884587 3406385 3354283 3369262 3324290 3472861 3290473 3294117 3422074 3026521 2957491 3154639 3069954 3531994 3324459 3451394 3392798 3443486 3340826 3353330 3521430 3102052 Forecast 2880985.6802270417 2912303.8310558414 3363005.2364253122 3198375.1786875776 3317889.7209625039 3158295.9499233421 3169195.5421235701 3306321.9280721722 2836817.4755075914 3270693.9472142076 3062389.2130517825 2855433.7433846206 3041594.4258660469 2904447.1425198186 3350842.2400437761 3299460.6853448143 3344122.922585893 3186964.2505501737 3395784.9808506272 3435915.0259386105 3103416.7249736385 3316268.9707096433 2981045.5609573065 2972094.7315638317 3229280.6477672672 3068231.6037369999 3446304.0909201838 3322782.8887264733 3376245.6396602183 3188890.7736532814 3338012.8665964631 3322383.8190943375 3210936.3183464818 3390141.3739206349 3107179.2841661675 3033781.8471948812 3176387.6483552726 3018445.7119562975 3475404.4083026708 3368419.6621286403 3397608.4342993717 3219682.4693170101 3455713.9737669691 3371539.1080889837 3259746.5933707845 3373086.9276544009 3109625.0466274433 3039249.4929885133 3173757.4366028989 3014610.1588844019 3526996.9492389038 3356060.3324823366 3380028.3213524506 3254342.2338679931 3348367.9808754902 3262968.8306893283 3146221.277445992 3128819.8246401954 2835860.4970484111 2760628.994308311 2822828.2620088854 2715899.1870184918 3133876.3763659126 3073560.7041708264 3245771.5387875782 3054458.5860978668 3119827.1145994291 3172455.7275224049 2972276.9731303235 3181128.9368202928 2946833.573602776 2849831.2446435289 2870202.6374147525 2884354.7387590851 3173962.0028916867 3115282.3888348974 3217874.7232842688 3063283.7352585187 3259858.1789548439 3254763.1221158453 3138878.2254425674 3239123.2890777499 3057421.3779008589 2900117.6077580936 2987773.4006823939 3060692.135524781 3311782.6060675452 3288598.4917527852 3364888.3883220963 3180588.783387139 3454408.6340282313 3361821.2017796403 3249079.4792353995 3437255.9595739096 3089385.1806118679 3011439.8852205654 3147042.1771532763 3006126.9775925879 3535133.4456935674 3440048.2780998256 3386768.7174586542 3293094.620344914 3488944.774874340 3 3321333.7221782035 3309955.7304733796 3472879.6988064782 3132129.0811575307 3075239.4318022984 3275608.1270093485 3149479.4811737356 3625231.3712751358 3478691.4032170875 3572536.0167602412 3452246.5568947294 3529954.014872049 3413227.1393283573 3400556.1887302869 3542772.8722869554 3137994.0730864662 3110836.4692276828

Rankings

3 different methods chosen
Regression HW Additive HW Multiplicative
ME 20876 4222 -895 Mean Error, but not MAD
RMSE 119540 102288 78353 MSE
MAPE 3.30% 2.60% 1.91% MAPE
Rank 3 2 1
Population
Forecast Dec-12 3056874 3146899 3075239
Jan-13 3147562 3330937 3275608
Feb-13 3060766 3263758 3149479
Mar-13 3469761 3601363 3625231
Apr-13 3356008 3430958 3478691
May-13 3425434 3460669 3572536
Jun-13 3280951 3372511 3452247
Jul-13 3422171 3442751 3529954
Aug-13 3380456 3331490 3413227
Sep-13 3250434 3331308 3400556
Oct-13 3412689 3452237 3542773
Nov-13 3078278 3159229 3137994
Dec-13 3080224 3185951 3110836
Total Population 39364734 40363161 40689134

Annual data (2)

Year Volume
1970 6,787,650
1971 7,361,783
1972 7,954,748
1973 8,474,727
1974 8,664,751
1975 9,151,427
1976 9,769,354
1977 10,137,021
1978 11,178,111
1979 11,696,073
1980 11,941,524
1981 11,820,788
1982 11,633,728
1983 12,348,270
1984 12,843,433
1985 14,194,189
1986 15,196,284
1987 16,216,102
1988 17,199,808
1989 18,129,684
1990 20,954,420
1991 21,315,116
1992 21,886,865
1993 23,522,593
1994 28,214,362
1995 29,002,122
1996 29,636,361
1997 30,464,635
1998 30,605,128
1999 33,809,134
2000 35,849,691
2001 35,017,317 r
2002 35,071,504
2003 35,540,126
2004 37,388,781
2005 38,566,717
2006 38,914,889
2007 39,196,761
2008 37,481,552
2009 36,351,469
2010 37,335,436 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013
2011 38,928,708 Reg HWAdd HWMult Reg HWAdd HWMult
2012 Fore 39,743,236 2013 Fore 2012 Fore forecasted increase 39,743,236 39,833,261 39,761,601 39,364,734 40,363,161 40,689,134
39,833,261 39364734.3138857 39,743,236 -0.95% 3056874.43297079 3146899.00039 3075239.4318023 3147562 3330937 3275608
39,761,601 40363161.4810662 39,833,261 1.33% 3,154,639 3,154,639 3,154,639 3060766 3263758 3149479
2013 Fore 39364734.3138857 40689133.7138621 39,761,601 2.33% 3,069,954 3,069,954 3,069,954 3469761 3601363 3625231
40363161.4810662 3,531,994 3,531,994 3,531,994 3356008 3430958 3478691
40689133.7138621 3,324,459 3,324,459 3,324,459 3425434 3460669 3572536
3,451,394 3,451,394 3,451,394 3280951 3372511 3452247
3,392,798 3,392,798 3,392,798 3422171 3442751 3529954
3,443,486 3,443,486 3,443,486 3380456 3331490 3413227
3,340,826 3,340,826 3,340,826 3250434 3331308 3400556
3,353,330 3,353,330 3,353,330 3412689 3452237 3542773
3,521,430 3,521,430 3,521,430 3078278 3159229 3137994
3,102,052 3,102,052 3,102,052 3080224 3185951 3110836
Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 0 Volume 6787650 7361783 7954748 8474727 8664751 9151427 9769354 10137021 11178111 11696073 11941524 11820788 11633728 12348270 12843433 14194189 15196284 16216102 17199808 18129684 20954420 21315116 21886865 23522593 28214362 29002122 29636361 30464635 30605128 33809134 35849691 35017317 35071504 35540126 37388781 38566717 38914889 39196761 37481552 36351469 37335436 38928708 39743236.432970792 39833261.000389993 39761601.431802303 39364734.313885659 40363161.481066227 40689133.713862076