Online quiz for 6/14/19

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1

Location Fixed Costs Variable Costs per unit A=B B=C C=D
A $85,000 2 6000 6666.6666666667 7500
B $55,000 7
C $35,000 10
D $65,000 6
average weekly demand 50 units
standard deviation  8 units
95% 1.645
Safety Stock  13 units
Therefore Target inventory level= lead time demand + safety stock
Lead time 2 Weeks
Lead time demand 100
Target inventory level= 113

2

Activity a=Optimistic Time Estimate(weeks) m=Most likely Time Estimates (weeks) b=Pessimistic Time Estimates(weeks) Immediate predecessor(s) T€=(a+4m+b)/6 Var=((b-a)/6)^2 Std.dev
A 3 6 9 none 6 1 1
B 3 5 7 A 5 0.4444444444 0.6666666667
C 4 7 12 A 7.3333333333 1.7777777778 1.3333333333
D 4 8 10 B 7.6666666667 1 1
E 5 10 16 C 10.1666666667 3.3611111111 1.8333333333
F 3 4 5 D,E 4 0.1111111111 0.3333333333
G 3 6 9 D.E 6 1 1
H 5 6 10 F 6.5 0.6944444444 0.8333333333
I 5 8 11 G 8 1 1
J 3 3 3 H,I 3 0 0
ABDFHJ 32.17
ABDGIJ 35.67
ACEFHJ 37.00
ACEGIJ 40.50 Critical
Std.dev 6.17
probability of completing the project in 44 weeks 44
Z 0.57
probability 0.71

3

Forecast Ft (given a) Abs. Error Square Error 2-period moving average Abs. Error Square Error
Actuals (At) 0.2 exponential smoothing a= 0.2 a= 0.2
1 15 17 2 4 16.5 1.5 2.25
2 18 16.60 1.4 1.96 16 2 4
3 14 16.88 2.88 8.2944 15 1 1
4 16 16.30 0.304 0.092416 14.5 1.5 2.25
5 13 16.24 3.2432 10.51834624 14.5 1.5 2.25
6 16 15.59 0.40544 0.1643815936 16 0 0
10.23 25.03 7.50 11.75
exponential smoothing a= 0.2 2-period moving average
MSE 4.1716 1.9583
MAD 1.7054 1.2500