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ControlChangeandDecisionMakingwithnotepages0816.pptx© 2014, 2016 David E. Frick.
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Management 515
Control, Change, and Decision Making
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Definitions
Organizational Control. Managers monitor and regulate how efficiently and effectively an organization and its members are performing the activities necessary to achieve organizational goals
Control Systems. Formal, target-setting, monitoring, evaluation and feedback systems that provide managers with information about whether the organization’s strategy and structure are working efficiently and effectively.
A system must be managed. The bigger the system, the more difficult it is to manage it to perform optimally
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Types of Control Systems using IT
Feed forward control. Control that allows managers to anticipate problems before they arise. Giving stringent product specifications to suppliers in advance, e.g., ongoing customer research
Concurrent control. Control that gives managers immediate feedback on how efficiently inputs are being transformed into outputs so managers can correct problems as they arise, e.g., equipment sensors, daily reports
Feedback control. Control that gives managers information after outputs are completed, e.g., customer surveys, quality control inspections
In a feed-forward system, the control variable adjustment is not error-based. Instead it is based on knowledge about the process and predictions of outputs. Some standards are needed for the control system to be reliable. Sometimes pure feed-forward control without feedback is called 'ballistic', because once a control signal has been sent, it cannot be further adjusted; any corrective adjustment must be by way of a new control signal. In contrast 'cruise control' adjusts the output in response to the load that it encounters, by a feedback mechanism.
Concurrent control is accomplished through feedback. The control system applies constraints or adjustments which typically result in some change in ongoing operations. Operational consistency and correctness can usually be achieved without significantly reducing performance. Concurrency control can require significant additional complexity and overhead.
Feedback control systems are similar to concurrent systems, except that the feedback information is usually after the fact, e.g., after a batch is completed, after a product is delivered to a customer. Adjustments will affect a future run not the current run.
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Basic Concurrent Control Process
System
Controller
Sensor
Input
Output
Operations
Here is a visual of the basic control process.
At some point in operations, a sensor measures some aspect of production. If the result is out of tolerance, a signal is sent to the controller. The controller then adjusts operations to return to tolerance.
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Flavors of Control Systems
Discrete. Found in manufacturing. Robotic assembly can be characterized as discrete process control
Batch. Requires that specific quantities of raw materials be combined in specific ways for particular durations to produce an intermediate or end result, e.g., bread
Continuous. A physical system represented through variables that are smooth and uninterrupted over time, e.g., the water temperature in a nuclear reactor
Applications having mixed elements are often called hybrid applications
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Organizational Control Systems
| Type of Control | Mechanisms |
| Output | Financial measures Organizational goals Operating budgets |
| Behavior | Direct supervision Rules and standing operating procedures Management by objectives |
| Clan | Norms, values, and culture Socialization Policies Reward and punishment |
Here is a table of control systems that are common in business.
Even organizational culture can be viewed as a control system. Individuals who violate organizational norms can suffer pressure to return to acceptable behavior.
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Control Process Design
A four step process
1. Establish standards and goals
2. Measure actual performance
3. Compare results against standards
4. Take corrective action, if needed
The steps to designing a control process are quire simple. Simple to state, difficult to execute.
Step one is the most critical. You must establish the RIGHT measures and standards.
Ideally, you want to measure outcomes. Outcomes can be very hard to measure.
Outputs tend to be easier to identify and measure, so firms tend to measure outputs as an indicator of outputs.
Ideally, measures should be SMART:
Specific – target a specific item or goal
Measurable – quantifiable in some meaningful unit, e.g., dollars, days, errors, units
Assignable – who is responsible for this specific result?
Realistic – results must be realistically be achievable, given available resources.
Time-related – specify when the result(s) can be achieved.
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Examples of Control Measures
Profit Ratio. Measures how efficiently managers are using the organization’s resources to generate profits
Return on Investment (ROI). Net income before taxes divided by total assets. Most commonly used financial performance measure
Operating margin. Operating profit divided by sales revenue. Another measure of how efficiently an organization is using its resources
Business tend to use financial measures as indicators of performance.
These measures can be useful if the goals of the firm are financial based, i.e., profit. Some organizations are less concerned about profit and more concerned with social issues.
U.S. government agencies tend to misuse financial measures, partly become their desired outcomes are very nebulous or difficult to measure.
For example, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services measures the number of individuals receiving Medicare Benefits. This is easy to track and helps justify budgets, yet the linkage between the number of people receiving benefits and the mission to “advance the quality of life for all Americans” is tenuous at best.
[Build a SMART measure exercise.]
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Some More
Liquidity ratio. Measures how well managers have protected organizational resources to be able to meet short-term obligations
Leverage ratio. Measures the degree to which managers use debt or equity to finance ongoing operations
Activity ratio. Shows how well managers are creating value from organizational assets, e.g., inventory turnover
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Goal Setting
Corporate managers set goals for divisions that will allow the organization to achieve corporate goals
Division managers set goals for each activity or function that allow the division to achieve division and corporate goals
Activity or functional managers set goals for each employee that are linked to activity/function, division, and corporate goals
Goal setting involves the development of an plan or strategy designed to guide the organization towards a goal. Goal setting can be guided by goal-setting criteria (or rules) such as SMART criteria.
More specific and ambitious goals tend to lead to better performance than easy or general goals. As long as the organization or individual accepts the goal, has the ability to attain it, and does not have conflicting goals, there is a strong positive correlation between goal difficulty and task performance.
In business, goal setting encourages participants to put in substantial effort. If every member has defined expectations, little room is left for inadequate or marginal effort to go unnoticed.
Managers cannot create motivation. Goals are therefore an important tool for managers, since goals have the ability to function as a self-regulatory mechanism that helps employees prioritize tasks.
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Behavior Control
Direct supervision
Actively observe the behavior of subordinates
Teach subordinates appropriate behaviors
Intervene to take corrective action
Most immediate and potent form of behavioral control
Can be an effective way of influencing employees
Very expensive because a manager can only manage a relatively small number of subordinates effectively (5-7)
Can demotivate subordinates if they feel that they are under such close scrutiny that they are not free to make their own decisions (micro-managing)
Direct supervision generally means to be physically present, or within an immediate distance, such as on the same floor, and available to respond to the needs of something or someone. Precise definitions vary by context and the organization.
For example, in the context of employment law, it may involve defining the degree of control over a worker's tasks, a role of a manager.
Direct supervision on a job may be defined by the degree of supervision by a person overseeing the work of other persons, by which the supervisor has control over and professional knowledge
In business, micromanagement is a management style in which a manager very closely observes or controls the work of subordinates. It generally has a negative connotation.
The notion of micromanagement can be extended to any social context where one person takes a bullying approach, in the level of control and influence over the members of a group. Often, excessive obsession with the most minute of details causes a management failure in that the focus on the major details is loss and worker performance is reduced.
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Bureaucratic Control
Control through a system of rules and standard (standing) operating procedures (SOPs) that shapes and regulates the behavior of divisions, functions, and individuals
Rules are easier to make than discard, leading to bureaucratic “red tape” and slowing organizational reaction times
People might become so used to automatically following rules that they stop thinking for themselves
Historically, bureaucracy was government administration managed by departments staffed with nonelected officials. Today, bureaucracy is the administrative system governing any large organization.
Since being coined, the word "bureaucracy" has developed negative connotations. Bureaucracies have been criticized as being too complex, inefficient, or too inflexible.
Others have defended the necessity of bureaucracies. The German sociologist, Max Weber, argued that bureaucracy constitutes the most efficient and rational way in which one can organize human activity, and that systematic processes and organized hierarchies were necessary to maintain order, maximize efficiency and eliminate favoritism. Weber also saw unfettered bureaucracy as a threat to individual freedom, in which an increase in the bureaucratization of human life can trap individuals in an "iron cage" of rule-based, rational control.
Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives opined that government bureaucracy must be so large and complex that no tyrant can make it work.
However, a large complex bureaucracy in a business will likely put that business at a competitive disadvantage.
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Clan Control
The control exerted on individuals and groups in an organization by shared values, norms, standards of behavior, expectations, policies, rewards, and punishments
One example is an organization’s “values statement”
Clan control is the control of the members of an organization through shared values, belief structures, and cultural norms, rather than through traditional bureaucratic control procedures. A clan control strategy allows employees a high degree of operational latitude, relying on commonly-held goals and behavioral expectations to produce desired strategic outcomes.
A clan control strategy can he unhealthy for an organization. It can lead to a mob mentality, where actions are taken based on emotion and not logic; groupthink, where all members begin to think alike and do not challenge assumptions; and a divergence from organizational goals in favor or group goals.
See “Principle-Agent Problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem
The principle-agent problem (Agency Theory) will be address often in the course. If you are unsure of the concept, please drop me an email.
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Management by Objectives (MBO)
Formal system of evaluating subordinates for their ability to achieve specific organizational goals or performance standards and to meet operating budgets
Specific goals and objectives are established at each level of the organization
Managers and their subordinates together determine subordinates’ goals
Managers and their subordinates periodically review the subordinates’ progress toward meeting goals
Critical element of most performance/rewards systems
Review the Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_by_objectives
Note the contributions of Peter Drucker and W. Edwards Deming.
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Change
Organizational change. Movement of an organization away from its present state and toward some desired future state to increase its efficiency and effectiveness
Evolutionary change. Gradual, incremental, and narrowly focused constant attempt to improve, adapt, and adjust strategy and structure incrementally to accommodate changes in the environment
Revolutionary change. Rapid, dramatic, and broadly focused. Involves a bold attempt to quickly find ways to be effective. Likely to result in a radical shift in ways of doing things, new goals, and a new structure for the organization
Change is a topic the deserves its own semester-long class. What we will cover here is just the tip of the iceberg.
The points that I want you to take away are:
Change requires leadership. The leader inspires or persuades you that change is necessary and you need to be a part of the change.
View these videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OCAT0Uk5j0 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ (Dancing guy)
Managers are involved in managing the elements of change, but remember the basic role of a manager is to keep the status quo. Change is unsettling to the concept of management.
Revolutionary change tends to be top-down and evolutionary change, bottom-up.
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Organizational Change
| Assess the need for change | Decide to make a change | Implement change | Evaluate change |
| Recognize that a problem exists Identify the root cause(s) | Describe the ideal future state (vision) Identify obstacles and uncertainty | Select methodology (top down or bottom up) Introduce and lead change | Compare pre-change and post-change performance Compare to ideal performance (benchmarking) |
Change is hard
People resist change
Change takes leadership (not management)
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Implementing Change
Top Down Change. A fast, revolutionary approach to change in which top managers identify what needs to be changed and then move quickly to implement the changes throughout the organization
Bottom-up change. A gradual or evolutionary approach to change in which managers at all levels work together to develop a detailed plan for change.
Top-down change tends to be less effective than bottom-up change.
If the leader can convince the organization that change is necessary, a top-down approach can be successful. However, top-down change tends to be coercive—the boss demands change happen so it better happen. Human nature, on the other hand, resists change. Even if a change is made, people tend to revert to the previous state after the initial pressure for change is lifted.
Bottom-up change tends to be more successful because it only get started and thrives if all involved are convinced that change is in the individual’s self interest.
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Evaluating Change
Benchmarking. The process of comparing one company’s performance on specific dimensions with the performance of other, high-performing organizations
Many flavors of benchmarking exist
Lots of software from which to chose
Everyone is looking for the “best practice”
Industry standards
Competitor’s results
Benchmarking is the process of comparing business performance against standards or other companies. In the process of best practice benchmarking, management identifies the best firms in the firm’s industry and compares results and processes.
Benchmarking may be a one-off event, but is often treated as a continuous process in which organizations continually seek to improve their practices.
Benchmarking against industry standards can be justified. I question the utility of comparing your firm against a competitor. No wise competitor is going to voluntarily give away a competitive advantage. In short, other firms will lie.
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Nature of Decision Making
The process by which managers respond to opportunities and threats that confront them by analyzing options and making determinations about specific organizational goals and courses of action
In response to opportunities. Occurs when managers respond to ways to improve organizational performance to benefit customers, employees, and other stakeholder groups
In response to threats. Events inside or outside the organization are adversely affecting organizational performance
Decision-making is as a problem-solving activity that ends when a solution deemed to be satisfactory is identified. Decision making can be rational or irrational and can be based on explicit or tacit knowledge. If you are unsure of the difference between explicit and tacit knowledge, please see Wikipedia.
A major part of decision-making involves the analysis of a finite set of alternatives described in terms of evaluative criteria. Alternatives are ranked in terms of how attractive they are to the decision-maker(s) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously.
Logical decision-making is an important part of all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to make informed decisions. Experts may use intuitive decision-making rather than structured approaches. They make decisions that fit their experience and arrive at a course of action without weighing alternatives.
The decision-maker's environment can play a part in the decision-making process.
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Methods
Programmed Decision. Routine, virtually automatic process.
Decisions have been made so many times in the past that managers have developed rules or guidelines to be applied when certain situations inevitably occur
Non-Programmed Decisions. Non-routine decision making that occurs in response to unusual, unpredictable opportunities and threats. Rules do not exist because the situation is unexpected or uncertain and managers lack the information they would need to develop rules to cover it
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Intuition. Feelings, beliefs, and hunches that come readily to mind, require little effort and information gathering and result in on-the-spot decisions
Tacit versus explicit knowledge
The power of “Blink”
Reasoned judgment . Decisions that take time and effort to make and result from careful information gathering, generation of alternatives, and evaluation of alternatives
Requires quantitative information
Analysis of alternatives (AoA)
Beware of analysis paralysis
See “game theory”
Based On?
Tacit knowledge is the kind of knowledge that is difficult to transfer to another person by means of writing or words. For example, the game “Twenty Questions” makes use of tacit knowledge.
I am thinking of something.
Is it living? Yes
Is it a person? No
Is it an animal? Yes
Is it a mammal? Yes
Does it have four legs? Yes
Is it a domestic animal? Yes
Is it a farm animal? No
At this point, you should have a limited number of guesses. Your tacit knowledge of the general characteristics of things allows you to include or exclude options. With just a few more focused questions, you should be able to reduce your options to one.
Explicit knowledge is knowledge that can be readily articulated, codified, accessed and verbalized. It can be easily transmitted to others. Most forms of explicit knowledge can be stored in some medium. The information contained in encyclopedias and textbooks are good examples of explicit knowledge.
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Classic Decision Making Model
A prescriptive model of decision making that assumes the decision maker can identify and evaluate all possible alternatives and their consequences and rationally choose the most appropriate decision in light of what managers believe to be the most desirable future consequences for their organization
List all alternative courses of action with consequences
Rank each alternative from least to most preferred according to personal preference
Select the alternative that leads to most desired future consequences
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| Step | Assumptions |
| List | All reasonable alternatives are known or knowable All relevant information on each alternative is available |
| Rank | Managers possess the mental faculty to process information Managers are able to eliminate personal biases |
| Select | Managers are able to accurately predict consequences Unforeseen consequences are insignificant Managers can set aside self interest (Agency Theory) |
Weaknesses of the Classic Model
The fallacy of the classic decision making model is that the assumptions listed above hold.
It is foolish to believe this.
Decision makers can list many alternatives, but some are simply not knowable. It is beyond human ability to list all possible alternatives.
Not all managers are that smart. Theoretically , smart people may make reasoned decisions, but these decisions may not be wise. I cringe at the decisions of managers of below average intelligence.
Humans are inherently bad at making predictions about the future.
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Administrative Model
An approach that explains why decision making is inherently uncertain and risky and why managers usually make satisfactory rather than optimum decisions
Bounded rationality. Cognitive limitations that constrain one’s ability to interpret, process, and act on incomplete information, uncertainty, ambiguity, and in the face of time constraints. The number of alternatives a manager must identify is so great and the amount of information so vast that the manager cannot come close to evaluating all possible alternatives leading to satisficing (choosing an acceptable, or satisfactory response rather than trying to make the best decision)
The Bounded Rationality (or Administrative) model is based on the concept developed by Herbert Simon. This model does not assume individual rationality in the decision process.
Instead, it assumes that people, while they may seek the best solution, normally settle for much less, because the decisions they confront typically demand greater information, time, processing capabilities than they possess. They settle for “bounded rationality or limited rationality in decisions. This model is based on certain basic concepts.
In war, the common belief is that “a poor plan, aggressively executed is always better than the perfect plan, late.”
The trade-off for time might be the death of the organization. In these cases, a satisfactory decision is not only adequate, but necessary.
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Retrospective decision model (or implicit favorite model)
Attempts to rationalize a decision post hoc
Associated with choice-supportive bias and confirmation bias
Retrospective Decision Model
This decision-making model focuses on how decision-makers attempt to rationalize their choices after they have been made and try to justify their decisions. This model has been developed by Per Soelberg. He made an observation regarding the job choice processes of graduating business students and noted that, in many cases, the students identified implicit favorites (i.e. the alternative they wanted) very early in the recruiting and choice process. However, students continued their search for additional alternatives and quickly selected the best alternative.
The total process is designed to justify, through the guise of scientific rigor, a decision that has already been made intuitively. By this means, the individual becomes convinced that he or she is acting rationally and taking a logical, reasoned decision on an important topic.
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Errors in Decision Making
Indecision
Postponing the decision until the last minute
Failure to isolate the root cause
Failure to properly assess the reliability of informational sources
Wrong choice of analytical methodology
No follow through on the decision
The quality of the decisions can make the difference between success and failure. Therefore, it is imperative that all factors affecting the decision be properly evaluated and investigated.
a. Indecisiveness: Decision-making is full of responsibility. The fear of its outcome can make some people timid about taking a decision. This timidity may result in taking a long time for making a decision and the opportunity may be lost. This trait is a personality trait and must be looked into seriously.
b. Postponing the decision until the last moment: This is a common feature which results in decision-making under pressure of time which generally eliminates the possibility of thorough analysis of the problem which is time consuming as well as the establishment and comparison of all alternatives. Even though some managers work better under pressures, most often an adequate time period is required to look objectively at the problem and make an intelligent decision. Personality also has an affect on decision making. Introverts tend to require more time to think about a situation before making a decision.
c. A failure to isolate the root cause of the problem: It is a common practice to cure the symptoms rather than the causes. For example, a headache may be cause by a deep-rooted emotional problem. An aspirin will not cure the root problem.
d. A failure to assess the reliability of informational sources: Very often, we take it for granted that the other person’s opinion is very reliable and trustworthy and we do not check for the accuracy of the information ourselves. The opinion of the other person is taken, so that if the decision fails to bring the desired results, the blame for the failure can be shifted to the person who had provided the information. This is a poor reflection on the manager’s ability and integrity.
e. The method for analyzing the information may not be a sound one: Since most decisions have to be based upon a lot of information, the procedure to identify, isolate and select the useful information must be sound and dependable. Usually, it is not operationally feasible to objectively analyze more than five or six pieces of information at a time. A model must be built which incorporates and handles many variables in order to aid the decision makers. Choosing the right model is critical.
f. Do implement the decision and follow through: Making a decision is not the end of the process, rather it is a beginning. Implementation of the decision and the results obtained are the true barometer of the quality of the decision. Duties must be assigned, deadlines must be set, evaluation process must be established and contingency plans must be prepared in advance. The decisions must be implemented and results checked to get the best outcomes.
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Why Information is Incomplete
Uncertainty. The probabilities of alternative outcomes cannot be determined or are less than 1.
Ambiguous Information. Information that can be interpreted in multiple and often conflicting ways
Time constraints and information costs. Managers have neither the time nor money to search for all possible alternatives and evaluate potential consequences
Inaccurate information
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Biases
Heuristics. Rules of thumb that simplify the process of making decisions
Systematic errors. Poor decisions that people make over and over due to a system or process weakness
Prior Hypothesis Bias. Results from the tendency to base decisions on strong prior beliefs even if evidence shows that those beliefs are wrong
Representativeness. Results from the tendency to generalize inappropriately from a small sample or from a single vivid event or episode
In this and the next few slides, I am listing several common cognitive biases that affect decision makers and the decision making process.
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Illusion of Control. The tendency to overestimate one’s own ability to control activities and events
Escalating Commitment. A source of cognitive bias resulting from the tendency to commit additional resources to a project even if evidence shows that the project is failing
Selective search for evidence. Willingness to gather facts that support certain conclusions but disregard other facts that support different conclusions
Premature termination of search for evidence. Accepting the first alternative that looks like it might work
Biases 2
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Biases 3
Inertia. Unwillingness to change thought patterns that we have used in the past in the face of new circumstances
Selective perception. Actively screening-out information that we do not think is important
Wishful thinking or optimism bias. Tendency to see things in a positive light distorting perception and thinking
Choice-supportive bias. Distortion of our memories of chosen and rejected options to make the chosen options seem relatively more attractive
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Recency. Tending to place more attention on more recent information and either ignore or forget more distant information
Repetition bias. Willingness to believe what we have been told most often and by the greatest number of different of sources
Anchoring and adjustment. Making decisions that are unduly influenced by initial information that shapes our view of subsequent information
Biases 4
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Groupthink and peer pressure. A desire to conform to the opinions held by the group
Source credibility bias. Rejecting something if we have a bias against the person, organization, or group to which the person belongs
Incremental decision making and escalating commitment. Looking at a decision as a small step in a process which tends to perpetuate a series of similar decisions
Biases 5
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Attribution asymmetry. Tending to attribute our success to our abilities and talents, but attributing our failures to bad luck and external factors, while attributing other's success to good luck, and their failures to their mistakes
Role fulfillment. Conforming to the decision making expectations that others have of someone in our position
Underestimating uncertainty. Tending to underestimate future uncertainty because we tend to believe we are smarter than we truly are: 75-25
Biases 6
Underestimating uncertainty. People tend to overestimate their skill and performance. Repeated studies have show that 75 percent of all workers believe they are in the top 25 percent of performers.
[Bias survey]
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Bias Survey
Here is a distribution of a set of answers of a set of questions posed to on-ground classes over several semesters.
Note how left-skewed the distribution is. This suggests an inflated self-sense of ability, which is consistent with findings in many other experiments.
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Group Decision Making
Can be superior to individual making
Choices are less likely to fall victim to personal cognitive biases
Ability to draw on combined skills of group members (diversity of thought, skills, and experiences)
Improved capacity to generate feasible alternatives
Potential for “buy-in” when other stakeholders contribute to the decision
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Likely to greatly extend the time needed to reach a decision
Can be difficult to get multiple managers to agree because of individual agendas (parochial thinking)
Can be undermined by political dirty tricks
Can lead to groupthink
Group Decision Disadvantages
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Groupthink
Pattern of faulty and biased decision making that occurs in groups whose members strive for agreement among themselves at the expense of accurately assessing information relevant to a decision
Often motivated by a desire to minimize conflict
Can be cultural
Usually occurs when group members rally around a central manager’s idea and become blindly commited to the idea without considering alternatives
The group’s influence tends to convince each member that the idea must go forward
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Organizational Learning
Organizational learning. Managers seek to improve a employee’s desire and ability to understand and manage the organization and its task environment so as to raise effectiveness
Learning organization. An organization in which managers try to maximize the ability of individuals and groups to think and behave creatively and thus maximize the potential for organizational learning to take place
Creativity. A decision maker’s ability to discover original and novel ideas that lead to feasible alternative courses of action
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Promoting Group Creativity
Brainstorming. Managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives
Production Blocking. Occurs because group members cannot simultaneously make sense of all the alternatives being generated, think up additional alternatives, and remember what they were thinking
Nominal Group Technique. A decision making technique in which group members write down ideas and solutions, read their suggestions to the whole group, and discuss and then rank the alternatives
Nominal Group Technique
Useful when an issue is controversial and when different managers might be expected to champion different courses of action
Provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing and gives each manager more time and opportunity to come up with potential solutions
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Delphi Method
A decision-making technique in which group members do not meet face-to-face but respond in writing to questions posed by the group leader
Unusually a multi-round event
All contributions are anonymous
All contributors see all contributions
Delphi seems to have advantages over other predictive methods because:
Participants reveal their reasoning
It is easier to maintain confidentiality
Potentially quicker forecasts when experts are readily available
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Delphi Method
Typically used for predictive analysis or to generate an “expert opinion”
Typically three or four rounds, but can be more until a majority opinion emerges
Here is a graphic of the Delphi method.
Some critics have claimed that Delphi leads to groupthink. If structured correctly, I do not believe this to be the case.
Review this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV9xFqblEy4
You can stop at 03:40.
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