History ( A++ WORK, NO PLAGIARISM, ON TIME)

State of the State:

Texas Demographic

Trends and

Characteristics

May 23, 2023 | Austin, Texas

States with Most Population Growth, 2010 to 2020

2010 Population

2020 Population

Numeric Change

2010-2020

Percent Change

2010-2020

United States 308,745,538 331,449,281 22,703,743 7.4%

Texas 25,145,561 29,145,505 3,999,944 15.9% Florida 18,801,310 21,538,187 2,736,877 14.6%

California 37,253,956 39,538,223 2,284,267 6.1%

Georgia 9,687,653 10,711,908 1,024,255 10.6%

Washington 6,724,540 7,705,281 980,741 14.6%

North Carolina 9,535,483 10,439,388 903,905 9.5%

New York 19,378,102 20,201,249 823,147 4.2%

Arizona 6,392,017 7,151,502 759,485 11.9%

Colorado 5,029,196 5,773,714 744,518 14.8%

Virginia 8,001,024 8,631,393 630,369 7.9%

Tennessee 6,346,105 6,910,840 564,735 8.9%

Utah 2,763,885 3,271,616 507,731 18.4%

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 and 2020 Census Count and 2021 Population Estimates

3

Texas had an undercount of -0.97 in 2010 (not statistically different from 0)

States with an Undercount or Overcount

4

Percent Net Coverage Error by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010-2020

Post-Enumeration Survey and Demographic Analysis

5

Geographic Area

Population Estimate (as of July 1)

2020 2021 2022 Change 21-22 Rank

Change 21-22

Pct. Change 21-22

Rank Pct. Change

21-22

United States 331,511,512 332,031,554 333,287,557 1,256,003 0.4%

Texas 29,232,474 29,558,864 30,029,572 470,708 1 1.6% 4

Florida 21,589,602 21,828,069 22,244,823 416,754 2 1.9% 1

North Carolina 10,449,445 10,565,885 10,698,973 133,088 3 1.3% 9

Georgia 10,729,828 10,788,029 10,912,876 124,847 4 1.2% 12

Arizona 7,179,943 7,264,877 7,359,197 94,320 5 1.3% 8

South Carolina 5,131,848 5,193,266 5,282,634 89,368 6 1.7% 3

Tennessee 6,925,619 6,968,351 7,051,339 82,988 7 1.2% 11

Washington 7,724,031 7,740,745 7,785,786 45,041 8 0.6% 16

Utah 3,283,785 3,339,113 3,380,800 41,687 9 1.2% 10

Idaho 1,849,202 1,904,314 1,939,033 34,719 10 1.8% 2

’20-’21 -> 902 of new Texans per day ’21-’22 -> 1,290 new Texans per day

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2021 and 2022 vintages

States with Most Population Growth, 2020 to 2022

6

87%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

2022 Estimated Population, Texas Counties

7 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2022 Vintage

95 of Texas

counties lost

population

Estimated Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2021-2022

County US

Rank 2022 Population

Estimate

Population Change

2021-2022

Percent of Change from

Natural Increase

Percent of Change from International

Migration

Percent of Change from

Domestic Migration

Harris 2 4,780,913 45,626 63.6% 78.7% -42.2%

Collin 3 1,158,696 44,246 13.9% 17.8% 68.3%

Denton 4 977,281 33,424 16.7% 10.8% 72.5%

Fort Bend 7 889,146 29,022 15.3% 23.1% 61.6%

Bexar 9 2,059,530 28,635 27.7% 18.3% 54.1%

Montgomery 10 678,490 28,229 10.3% 7.2% 82.5%

Williamson 12 671,418 26,967 13.6% 8.0% 78.4%

Tarrant 13 2,154,595 25,193 39.6% 32.0% 28.3%

Travis 20 1,326,436 17,892 47.4% 39.8% 12.9%

Kaufman 29 172,366 14,150 6.0% 1.1% 92.9%

Hays 36 269,225 13,160 11.1% 3.7% 85.3%

Dallas 38 2,600,840 12,886 115.7% 128.5% -144.2%

Comal 48 184,642 9,751 0.5% 0.2% 99.3%

Brazoria 50 388,181 9,323 16.2% 9.2% 74.6%

Ellis 52 212,182 9,075 8.8% 1.8% 89.3%

Parker 53 165,834 8,868 2.7% 1.3% 96.0%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates 8

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2021-2022

*Among counties with populations of 50,000 or more in 2021Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates 9

Top Counties for Percent Growth in Texas, 2021-2022*

County US Rank 2022 Population

Estimate

Population Change

2021-2022

Percent Population

Change 2021-2022

Percent of Population

Change from Natural Increase

Percent of Population

Change from International

Migration

Percent of Population

Change from Domestic Migration

Kaufman 1 172,366 14,150 8.9% 6.0% 1.1% 92.9%

Rockwall 4 123,208 6,659 5.7% 6.6% 2.6% 90.7%

Comal 5 184,642 9,751 5.6% 0.5% 0.2% 99.3%

Parker 6 165,834 8,868 5.6% 2.7% 1.3% 96.0%

Hays 7 269,225 13,160 5.1% 11.1% 3.7% 85.3%

Liberty 12 101,992 4,610 4.7% 0.7% 2.9% 96.4%

Williamson 13 671,418 26,967 4.7% 6.3% 1.2% 92.5%

Wise 20 74,895 3,007 4.3% 10.3% 7.2% 82.5%

Montgomery 22 678,490 28,229 4.3% 4.2% 1.1% 94.8%

Bastrop 24 106,188 4,022 4.2% 13.6% 8.0% 78.4%

Johnson 27 195,506 8,064 4.2% 0.8% 1.9% 97.3%

Waller 31 61,894 2,420 4.1% 10.5% 3.4% 86.1%

Hunt 32 108,282 4,824 4.0% 13.9% 17.8% 68.3%

Collin 36 1,158,696 44,246 3.9% 8.7% 2.1% 89.2%

Fort Bend 46 889,146 29,022 3.4% 15.3% 23.1% 61.6%

10

Top Places for Numeric Growth, 2021-2022

Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

11

Top Places for Percent Growth, 2021-2022

Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

12

NH White, 4.7%

NH Black, 13.9%

Hispanic, 49.5%

NH Asian, 15.3%

NH Other, 16.5%

3,999,944 new Texans

95.3% attributable to growth

of minority populations

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Files Note: there were changes in the capture and processing of race data changed between 2010 and 2020

Minority population drove growth in Texas between 2010-2020

13

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, 0.1

American Indian and Alaska Native alone (NH), 0.2

Some other race alone …

Two or more races, 3.1

Asian alone (NH), 5.1Black or African American alone

(NH), 11.6

White alone (NH), 39.4

Hispanic or Latino (of any race), 40.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2021

Estimated Racial/Ethnic Composition of Texas Population, 2021

14 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Files

Difference in Population Density per Square Mile (2020-2010), Texas Counties

Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Population Estimates

86 counties had natural

decrease over the decade

(1/3 of Texas’ counties)

15

Estimated Natural Increase (Decrease), Texas Counties, 2010-2020

Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Population Estimates

More than half (134) of

counties had net out

domestic migration

16

Estimated Population Change from Domestic Migration, Texas Counties, 2010-2020

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2020 Evaluation Population Estimates and 2021 and 2022 Vintage Population Estimates

Natural Increase,

25.3%

International Migration,

25.4%

Domestic Migration,

49.4% Natural

Increase, 48.1%

International Migration,

20.8%

Domestic Migration

, 31.1%

2010 to 2020 2021 to 2022

Natural Increase,

36.6%

International Migration,

8.7%

Domestic Migration,

54.7%

2020 to 2021

470,708326,390

Estimated Components of Population Change for Texas, 2010-2020 and 2020-2021, 2021-2022

18

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Domestic International Natural Increase

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2020 Evaluation Population Estimates and 2022 Vintage Population Estimates

Estimated Domestic and International Migration for Texas, 2011-2022

19 Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

Estimated Change from Domestic Migration Comparing 2010-2020 and 2021-2022, Texas Counties

102.9

70.6

66.9

56.4

68.9

58.8 63.2

56.7

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

B ir

th s

p er

1 ,0

0 0

w o

m en

a ge

d 1

5 -4

4 y

ea rs

Hispanic or Latino

Asian or Pacific Islander, not Hispanic

Black or African American, not Hispanic

White, not Hispanic

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.

Texas Birth Rates, 2007-2019

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 and 2020 Vintage Population Estimates

2010

2015

2020

2010 2020

Year of birth

Generational Population Pyramids, Texas, 2010-2020

22

(47,086)

(41,384)

(19,683)

(11,068)

(7,055)

(5,752)

26,834

27,616

28,014

28,332

29,022

33,296

35,839

53,318

57,980

73,917

91,109

96,790

302,978

(100,000) (50,000) - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Colorado

Oklahoma

Washington

Oregon

North Dakota

Montana

Nevada

Mississippi

Virginia

Alaska

Arizona

Maryland

New Jersey

Louisiana

Puerto Rico

Florida

New York

Illinois

California

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State-to-State Migration Flows, 2010-2019

Estimated Net Domestic Migrants Between Texas and Other States, 2010-2019

Percent Distribution by Education Attainment of Texas Residents (Non-Migrants), Immigrants (International) and Net-Migrants (Domestic) Aged 25 Years and Over, Texas, 2015-2019

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, PUMS, 5-Year Samples, 2015-2019

16.5%

25.3%

21.7%

7.2%

19.2%

10.1%

21.3%

18.9%

10.8%

4.4%

27.4%

17.2%

9.0%

16.5%

19.4%

9.6%

28.5%

17.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

LT HS HS or Equiv Some College No Degree

Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional

Degree Residents Immigrants (International) Net-Migrants (Domestic)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Management, Business, and

Financial Occupations

Computer, Engineering, and Science Occupations

Education, Legal,

Community Service, Arts,

and Media Occupations

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

Service Occupations

Sales and Office

Occupations

Office and Administrative

Support Occupations

Natural Resources,

Construction, and

Maintenance Occupations

Production, Transportation,

and Material Moving

Occupations

Residents Immigrants Net Domestic Migrants

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-2020

Percent Distribution by Occupation of Non-Migrants (Texans) and Net-In Domestic Migrants Aged 25 Years and Over, Texas, 2006-2019

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2011, 2021 25

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

2011 2021 Difference

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2011, 2021 and 2011-2012 Change

26

8.7% 11.4% 5.0%

29.6%

28.4% 12.3% 22.4%

28.1%

24.8%

9.4%

22.0%

17.8%9.4%

5.4%

8.1%

6.4%17.8%

30.6%

27.4%

12.8%

10.9%

31.0%

15.0% 5.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Black Asian NH White Hispanic

        Graduate - prof. degree

        Bachelor's degree

        Associate's degree

        Some college, no degree

HS/Eqivelant

LT HS

38.1%

67.0% 50.5 %

24.5%

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2021

Educational Attainment of Adults Aged 25 Years and Older by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2021

27

-5.1%

-2.9% -2.4%

-10.0% -1.3%

-1.7% -2.8%

2.0%

-4.1%

-3.2% -3.1%

0.4%

2.0%

-1.2%

0.7%

1.6%

4.0%

0.4%

4.1%

4.1%

4.4%

8.7%

3.5%

2.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Black Asian NH White Hispanic

        Graduate - prof. degree

        Bachelor's degree

        Associate's degree

        Some college, no degree

HS/Eqivelant

LT HS

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2011 and 2021

Change in Educational Attainment of Adults Aged 25 Years and Older by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2011-2021

28 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 5-Year American Community Survey Summary File

13% 15%

16%

15%

6%

15%

6%

8% 7%

12%

13%

16% 14%

6%

15%

7%

9% 8%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Less than 10 minutes

10 to 14 minutes

15 to 19 minutes

20 to 24 minutes

25 to 29 minutes

30 to 34 minutes

35 to 44 minutes

45 to 59 minutes

60 or more minutes

2006-2016 2016-2020 Change

Change in Travel Time to Work, Texas, 2006-2010 and 2016-2020

29 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2011, 2019 and 2021 1-Year American Community Survey Summary File

79.8%

11.1%

1.6%

1.7%

1.7%

4.2%

80.1%

9.7%

1.3%

1.5%

1.6%

5.7%

70.7%

9.1%

0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

16.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

    Car, truck, or van - drove alone:

    Car, truck, or van - carpooled:

    Public transportation (excluding taxicab):

    Walked:

    Taxicab, motorcycle, bicycle, or other means:

    Worked from home

2011 2019 2021

Means of Transportation, Texas, 2011, 2019, 2021

30

47,342,105

44,391,658

36,722,840

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 1

2 0

2 2

2 0

2 3

2 0

2 4

2 0

2 5

2 0

2 6

2 0

2 7

2 0

2 8

2 0

2 9

2 0

3 0

2 0

3 1

2 0

3 2

2 0

3 3

2 0

3 4

2 0

3 5

2 0

3 6

2 0

3 7

2 0

3 8

2 0

3 9

2 0

4 0

2 0

4 1

2 0

4 2

2 0

4 3

2 0

4 4

2 0

4 5

2 0

4 6

2 0

4 7

2 0

4 8

2 0

4 9

2 0

5 0

2 0

5 1

2 0

5 2

2 0

5 3

2 0

5 4

2 0

5 5

2 0

5 6

2 0

5 7

2 0

5 8

2 0

5 9

2 0

6 0

Total Popluation 2018 Vintage

Total Population 1.0 (2022)

Total Population 0.5 (2022)

SOURCE: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2022 and 2018 Population Projections

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2020-2060

31

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2020-2060

SOURCE: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2022 Population Projections

32

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2020-2060

SOURCE: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2022 Population Projections

33 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

12,138,523 13,523,839

11,804,659

20,191,750

3,557,892

6,030,795

1,525,540

5,782,879

651,054

1,812,842

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

NH Other

NH Asian

NH Black

Hispanic

NH White

Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2020-2050

34

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Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

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[email protected]

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