Report
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CompetitiveIntelligenceFall2021-NeedsAnalysis.pptxNeeds Analysis
Week 3
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
VOBA courses
Questions
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
5 pillars of a CI process
Strategic
Unbiased
Measurable
Actionable
Repeatable
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Moving your pieces strategically while
remaining aware of the environment
You just arrived in your new job as a Disney Top Manager
What is your first question?
How to set up CI to answer it?
And what if you wish to know how medias, and Disney, are evolving in the US?
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
We can certainly imagine many such questions!
The early days of CI was rooted in understanding competitors.
“Now, today, it’s really evolved into understanding not just competitors, but really putting the customer at the center of the intelligence you collect so you can determine how best to help your customers compete in the market and help your customers make money and looking at how there’s a competitive effect from the competitors, how the political environment affects decisions that customers make, how the market dynamics affect the customer, and so forth. It’s really evolved into a more sophisticated discipline, where it’s not so much about collecting data anymore, but it’s about conducting sophisticated analytics so that you can help your company make decisions about the market in order to help their customers”
Nan Bulger, past CEO SCIP
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Possible needs
Competitive analysis
Understanding the competition
Understand different facets of the environment
Nurturing technological innovation
Capture market share
Understand the barriers to entering a new market
Carry out a "benchmarking" process
Identify weak signals of new threats
…
Influencing the environment
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Strategic analysis tools
Value chain analysis
Porter's 5 forces
Porter's diamond model
SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats)
PESTEL (policy social economy technology ecology legislation)
ADL Matrix (competitive position based on life cycle)
MacKinsey Matrix (Asset vs. Attraction, weak to strong)
And many others...
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Porter’s 5 forces – our coffee place!
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Source: https://research-methodology.net/pepsico-porters-five-forces-analysis/
SWOT
Apple’s
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Source: https://marketinginsiders.com/how-to-run-a-swot-analysis-for-your-business-template-included/
PESTEL + Ethical
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Source: https://www.professionalacademy.com/blogs-and-advice/marketing-theories---pestel-analysis
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Resulting from the analysis
Strategic questions
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Establishing hypothesis
Many tools available
Access to more autonomous CI
Increased access to tech
Thinking and reflection to assist decision making is the aim
Importance of choosing the right question to answer
Note your hypothesis and validate them when possible
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Establishing hypothesis – why?
To identify the profile of your export market. You may want to select only the best countries initially.
But what do you mean by better? Regulations, taxes?
For a consumer profile, how accurate do you want it to be?
Breadth affects cost and accuracy. Is it accurate enough?
The goal is to focus your efforts throughout the process, but also to learn from the experience once the previous day is over.
Feedback is essential to the learning process.
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Establishing hypothesis – then what?
Remain
Curious and open-minded
Have a minimum of communication skills
Be able to detect the "signs" of the environment
Be well aware of your role and your strengths and weaknesses
Do
Clearly establish the goal
Move identify valid information
Keeping the goal in mind
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Concept popularized by two Israeli psychologists
Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Economics 2002)
Amos Tversky
System 1 (hare) - fast, intuitive and emotional
System 2 (turtle) - slower, more reflective, more controlled and more logical
We go from system 2 to 1 when our reasoning is overtaxed, in a hurry...
We must be aware of this reality when working in a field that requires our judgment.
The human machine is not flawless…
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Reasoning biases – examples
Confirmation bias - what helps us confirm our idea?
Halo effect - you are influenced by a "feeling".
Negativity bias - the negative gets more weight
Illusion of correlation - we see links that don't exist
Anchoring bias - too much emphasis on a single track
Bias of omission - the wrong to act is always worse than the wrong to do nothing...
The illusion of knowledge - based on wrong knowledge!
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
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Impact
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
| Question | How we process it |
| How much would you be willing to pay to save an endangered species? | How do I feel about the dying dolphins? |
| How popular will the President be in 6 months? | How popular is he right now? |
| What penalty should be imposed on financial advisors who cheat seniors? | How mad am I when I think about those cheaters? |
Biases – so what?
Yes, our primary analysis tool is imperfect!
To get around these imperfections:
Working in teams to multiply perspectives
Giving yourself time to do well
identify the objectives clearly
Identify the right approach to data gathering
situate the needs in the organizational context
Understand what machine learning can offer
Be a fox that thinks like a turtle!
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Biases – avoid disinformation
To maximize the value generated by monitoring, the complexity of the environment and the potential for misinformation must be taken into account.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket
Opt for complementary measures
Gauge the importance of the measures selected
Validate critical data
Proceed by trial initially and then exploit further
Small deliberate steps with measurable outcomes
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
A process for CI
Understand what is needed
KIT
Identify clear objectives for your search and validate them!
KIQ
Record your objectives
Grid and tables
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
J Herring on KIT/KIQ Process
Strategic decisions and actions
Early warning topics
Description of the key players
Mutually exclusives?
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Forms for the Collection of CI
Needs Analysis
Return on last week
Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Sample CI plans (file)
Fuld Organizer Impact of deregulation and Benchmarking of Customer Service
EPBU Market – Revenue potential to our clients
ERP New Market Plan
Cipher Plan: Event Intelligence Plan for competitor profiling and early warning
Profiling regional country opportunities: Should we add a focus on this region?
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Personal examples
Benchmarking
Needs Analysis
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Strategic needs
Analysis
Questions
Working hypothesis
Reasoning biases
Complexity
Disinformation
Organising CI
Grid
Examples
Types and sources of information
Examples
Physical environment - secondary or tertiary sources
Internet - a virtually inexhaustible source
Magazines and journals - technical details
Annual reports - financial results, corporate structure, risks, objectives
Human environment - primary sources
Trade Shows
Galas, professional groups...
The temporal aspect of the information - sources of variable level
Evolution over time - land purchases, patents, hiring, published research
Weak signals
Questions?
Text or email me
Look for Q&A in Brightspace
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
TABLE A: IDENTIFYING INTELLIGENCE TOPICS AND NEEDS
My organizations success is
impacted by the following
external environmental
factors
Specifically I need
to understand
How forward
looking?
And with that
intelligence
my org. will
likely make
the following
decision
1. My competitors actions
(Best Foods)
How the two major
competitors will
react to my product
launch and why
I need to predict
their actions over the
next 6 months.
Launch
strategy for our
new product
2. My customers emerging
needs
What are my
customers working
on? What are their
pain points?
I need to predict
these factors
between1 to 5 years
from now to align
with my product
development cycle.
Approve
development
of new
product/
technology
3. Emerging government
policy
What support
programs will
government be
implementing in
nanotechnology
I need to predict the
programs over next
five years.
Selection of
R&D program
or launch a
lobby program
4.
5.
