Report
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CompetitiveIntelligenceFall2021-needforCI1.pptxThe need for competitive intelligence
Week 2
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.
Archilochus, circa 650 BC
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
Return on last week
VOBA courses
Questions
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
CI aims to deliver a competitive advantage
A good understanding of the environment is vital
International
National
Personal
What affects the enterprise?
Container shortage (bull whip, hiatus)
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
3
International
Geopolitics
Free-trade tensions around the world
COVID-19
Logistic Chain
China’s increasing power
South China Sea
AI research
New Silk Road infrastructure
Russia occupation of part of Ukraine
Social changes (Africa, India…)
In the US or Europe?
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
International
Omnipresence of GAFA & Big Data
Taxation debates, space tourism
Most valuable companies in the world
Alibaba is a great example of the trend
Not unlike Amazon but with a different business model
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
GAFA - Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon.
and Alibaba, and Clarivate…
Commerce électronique depuis 1999
Établissement d’un écosystème inter reliés et interactifs
Accompli l’intégral d’Amazon, eBay, Paypal, Google FedEx ainsi que plusieurs producteurs dans un environnement intégré
Partage des données, utilisation massive d’apprentissage automatique
Standardisation et traitement en temps réel des données des usagers
Diversification rapide dans cet environnement intégré (micro-prêts)
5
Alibaba’s key to success
Data
Software
Ecosystem
AI
Note: Article is dated yet
Remains pertinent.
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Ming Zeng (2018). Alibaba and the Future of Business. Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct 2018, pp 92-96
Capturer le plus de données possible
Utiliser des logiciels partout où c’est possible
Partager les données avec les partenaires de votre écosystème
Utiliser des algorithme d’apprentissage automatique partout où c’est possible de le faire
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International
Increased risks
Environment
Fires in Western US, AUS, floods
Medical
COVID and its undeniable impact
Supply chain
Cyber-security
Increased criminal activity
Cyber Far-West remains
Impact on elections
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
International
Regulations and trade
Trade union tensions
UK and EU – post-Brexit
US and Canada – new regime
US and China – uneasy tension
New unions
US, Canada, EU
Trans-Pacific
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
International
Complexity index
Country ranking based on economic diversity and complexity of exports
Specialized know-how enables diversity of export
a marker of resilience that can be used to predict economic development potential
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
International players
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Source
Augmentation marquée
Chine
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National
Politics
Commerce
Change in US approach
Chinese sanctions and pressures
Strategic objectives (shipbuilding)
Climate
Trade or price tensions
Prices of steel, aluminum, wood…
Tarifs on beer between provinces
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
National
Big Data economy
New poles of development
AI investments
Links to video game industry
Surveillance systems
Looming market correction
Surprising rebound, will it last?
Rise of inflation
New business models
Divestment of real estate
Teleworking
GAFA business models where data is the payment
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
National
Environment
Green stocks progress
Carbon bank
Pipeline funding and building
Arctic access
Energy corridor
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Personnal
Post-Modernism Individualism
Increase in public consultations
Not in my back yard
Increased interest group lobbying
Social movements
BLM
Increased access to information
Ease of access
Fake news
Media manipulation
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Personnal
Environment
Individual approach favored
Political discourse
Key actors
Industry encouragment
e.g. Declaration on Community and Social responsibility
From Great West, London Life and Canada-Vie
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Personnal level
Standardization
Barriers on mobility and immigration
More uniform expectations
Pressure from external bodies
Academic certification
Class societies (ISO…)
Professional societies (PMI…)
A way to do things, best practices
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Summary
Uncertain environment
Fortune 500 cycling
Complexity index as indicator
Rapid evolution
Increasing complexity
Big Data
Data centric
Age of information and knowledge
Global competition and increasing world trade and growing individualization
We’re all in the same boat now more than ever!
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Why weave this fabric?
We have seen many examples of forces acting on the enterprise
Directly, and/or
Indirectly
In the end, a CI process has to be tailored to
the size and ressources of the entreprise, and
its strategy
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
What do we know about Tim Horton and Starbuck?
Observe
Surroundings
types of people
take in as much as you can
Identify the differences between the two places and their significance.
What helps you identify the elements of a business strategy (3-5 elements is plenty).
What would that company strategy be?
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Tim Horton vs Starbuck
Porter 5 forces
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Entry
Substitute
Suppliers
Clients
Industry rivalry
Threat of new entrants
Economies of scale
Product differentiation
Brand identity/loyalty
Access to distribution channels
Capital requirements
Access to latest technology
Access to necessary inputs
Absolute cost advantages
Experience and learning effects
Government policies
Switching costs
Expected retaliation from existing players
Bargaining power of suppliers
Number of suppliers
Size of suppliers
Supplier concentration
Availability of substitutes for the supplier’s products
Uniqueness of supplier’s products or services (differentiation)
Switching cost for supplier’s products
Supplier’s threat of forward integration
Industry threat of backward integration
Supplier’s contribution to quality or service of the industry products
Importance of volume to supplier
Total industry cost contributed by suppliers
Importance of the industry to supplier’s profit
Bargaining power of buyers
Buyer volume (number of customers)
Size of each buyer’s order
Buyer concentration
Buyer’s ability to substitute
Buyer’s switching costs
Buyer’s information availability
Buyer’s threat of backward integration
Industry threat of forward integration
Price sensitivity
Threat of substitute products or services
Number of substitute products available
Buyer’s propensity to substitute
Relative price performance of substitutes
Perceived level of product differentiation
Switching costs
Substitute producer’s profitability & aggressiveness
Rivalry among existing competitors
Number of competitors
Diversity of competitors
Industry concentration and balance
Industry growth
Industry life cycle
Quality differences
Product differentiation
Brand identity/loyalty
Switching costs
Intermittent overcapacity
Informational complexity
Barriers to exit
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Now if you were in the coffee business
What could you measure to assist you in setting a winning strategy?
What markers would be important to you?
Alignment of your indicators with your strategy in a continuous learning loop is where CI can be leveraged
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Tim Hortons Kandahar served 2.5M
clients over 5 years!
Isaiah Berlin, philosopher
The hedgehog and the fox (1954)
An essay on Tosltoy’s view of history
Two types of thinkers
Hedghogs – simple, unity of thoughts
Fox – varied experience, generalist
Hedgog would appear to have it all for business…
Jim Collins, Good to Great, 2011
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Predictions in support of strategy
Tetlock and Gardner, 2015
Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction
18 years of data on quality of 28k expert predictions, many fields
Generalists predictions are largely better than those of specialists
Be a fox in the way you think, starting with the above conclusion!
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Indicators we could have used
Tim Horton & Starbuck
Financial
Profit, market share, dividends…
Performance
Annual growth rate, alignment with predictions…
Human
Personnel roll-over, moral…
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Advantages of CI
Anticipate changes in your environment
Learn from the successes and failures of other companies
Discover new competitors
Discover new technologies
Better understand policy, legislation, or legislative changes
Establish new business opportunities
Do not be buried in data
Reduce the uncertainty of your environment
Taking advantage of Big Data
Identification of weak signals
Better understand what affects our clients
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Seena Sharp
10 Myths that cripple competitive intelligence, CI Magazine, 2000
CI = Market Research
CI = Competitor Intel
Data = Info = Intel
CI = spying
No info on private companies
Best industry info comes from my industry
Info is free
Info costs too much
Not every decision requires CI
CI is a waste of time
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Group work
Each group will be assigned a myth
Explain it in your words (3 main points)
Provide at least one supporting example
You will present your findings to the Class (3min)
CI = Market Research
CI = Competitor Intel
Data = Info = Intel
CI = spying
No info on private companies
Best industry info comes from my industry
Info is free
Info costs too much
Not every decision requires CI
CI is a waste of time
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
A typical CI Process
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Entreprise
Direction and
Strategy
Plan
Collect
Analyze
Disseminate
Executive
Action
Loop
Similar to OODA Loop Concept
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Plan
Strategic Alignment
Identification of objectives
Framing expectations well
Identification of resources
Assigned personnel, skills, external contract?
Funds and equipment
Available time
Planning
A project of sorts (WBS, RACI, ...)
Tools that will be used
Who, what, where, when, how
An important if not crucial step!
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Collect
Automated collection
Internal network (BI) and external network (internet)
RSS feeds
Archiving
Possibility of preliminary treatment
Field Collection
Existing or non-existing networking
Mixed collection
Information support
Source Validation & credibility
Value of the data
Data protection
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Analyze
Type of analysis selected
Machine learning
Expert panel (Delphi)
Community of Practice
Systemic study
Graphic representation (Gephi)
And many others...
Wargaming, scenarios
Client Involvement
Beware of perception bias!
The objective is to generate knowledge from data and accumulated information
The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Disseminate
Synthesis & contextualization
Know your audience
Manage expectations!
Lobbying
Internal and external networks
Preparation of the "ground".
Scope of dissemination
Tailoring to audience
The Decision
Recommendations
The overriding objective is to support decision making
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The need for CI
Socio-economic context
trends
Link to strategy
decision-making
hedgehog & fox
exercise
Advantages
edge
False perceptions
article
exercise
A typical CI process
steps
Summary
One of many possible models
SCIP and VOBA course
5 pillars of a CI process
Strategic
Unbiased
Measurable
Actionable
Repeatable
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Questions?
Text or email me
Look for Q&A in Brightspace
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
