3 hours financial short analyst
Selina Watkins
CompanyRatio-3.xlsxNike
| Nike's Performance Measures | ||||||
| Performance Measures | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Source (Link) | |
| Market value added ($ millions) | Market value of equity – book value of equity | 128237 | 114364 | 86180 | 84844 | https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NKE/nike/financial-ratios |
| Market to book ratio | Market value of equity ÷ book value of equity | 13.95 | 12.64 | 7.29 | 8.05 | |
| Profitability Measures | ||||||
| Return on assets (ROA) % | After tax operating income/total assets | 16.99 | 8.58 | 18.23 | 17.59 | |
| Return on capital (ROC) | After tax operating income / (long-term debt + equity) | 32.22% | 14.56% | 26.70% | 26.38% | |
| Return on equity (ROE) | Net income/equity | 44.57 | 19.70 | 34.17 | 30.67 | |
| EVA ($ millions) | After tax operating income – cost of capital x capital | 2847.37 | 687.34 | 2769.70 | 2416.13 | |
| EBITDA | Net Income + interest + taxes + depreciation + amortization | 5492 | 5219 | 5465 | 5164 | |
| Efficiency Measures | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | ||
| Asset turnover | Sales/total assets at start of year | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 1.51 | |
| Receivables turnover | Sales/receivables at start of year | 9.17 | 10.41 | 9.34 | 9.99 | |
| Average collection period (days) | Receivables at start of year/daily sales | 39.86 | 35.08 | 39.07 | 36.54 | |
| Inventory turnover | Cost of goods sold/inventory at start of year | 3.85 | 3.89 | 3.77 | 3.6 | |
| Days in inventory | Inventories at start of year/daily cost of goods sold | 88.72 | 90.26 | 92.76 | 90.95 | |
| Net Profit margin | Net income/sales | 10.30% | 5.31% | 12.34% | 11.61% | |
| Operating profit margin | After tax operating income/sales | 12.20% | 12.21% | 13.83% | 13.91% | |
| A/P turnover | COGS/ Accounts Payable | 8.29 | 8.97 | 9.30 | 7.94 | |
| Leverage Measures | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | ||
| Long term debt ratio | Long term debt/(long term debt + equity) | 27.70% | 26.11% | 21.86% | 13.98% | |
| Long term debt equity ratio | Long term debt debt/equity | 38.32% | 35.34% | 27.98% | 16.26% | |
| Total debt ratio | Total liabilities/total assets | 61.88% | 56.46% | 46.66% | 42.66% | |
| Times interest earned | EBIT/interest payments | 97.39 | 82.31 | 96.92 | 136.42 | |
| Cash coverage ratio | (EBIT + depreciation)/interest payments | 111.78 | 96.15 | 111.33 | 156.09 | |
| Liquidity Measures | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | ||
| Net working capital to assets | Net working capital/total assets | 52.40% | 60.09% | 65.92% | 64.34% | |
| Current ratio | Current assets/current liabilities | 2.1 | 2.51 | 2.93 | 2.8 | |
| Quick ratio | (cash + marketable securities + receivables)/current liabilities | 1.68 | 2.03 | 2.23 | 2.06 | |
| Cash ratio | (cash + marketable securities)/current liabilities | 1.14 | 1.45 | 1.56 | 1.45 | |
| Days in Inventory | 365/ Inventory Turnover | 95 | 94 | 97 | 101 | |
| Days in A/R | 365/ A/R Turnover | 40 | 35 | 39 | 37 | |
| Days in A/P | 365/ A/P Turnover | 44 | 41 | 39 | 46 | |
| Market value of equity | Stock price x share outstanding | 126139.28 | 124026.84 | 90454.32 | 98636.37 | |
| book value of equity | Total assets - total liabilities | 9040 | 9812 | 12407 | 12258 | |
| After tax operating income | 4029 | 1933 | 4240 | 3760 | ||
| long-term debt | 3464 | 3468 | 3471 | 1993 | ||
| equity | 9040 | 9812 | 12407 | 12258 | ||
| cost of capital | 9.45% | 9.38% | 9.26% | 9.43% | ||
| capital | long-term debt + eauity | 12504 | 13280 | 15878 | 14251 | |
| Inventories at start of year | 5261 | 5055 | 4838 | 4337 | ||
| cost of goods sold | 21643 | 20441 | 19038 | 17405 | ||
| sales | 39117 | 36397 | 34350 | 32376 | ||
| Accounts Payable | 2612 | 2279 | 2048 | 2191 | ||
| Total liabilities | 14677 | 12724 | 10852 | 9121 | ||
| total assets | 23717 | 22536 | 23259 | 21379 | ||
| EBIT | 4772 | 4445 | 4749 | 4502 | ||
| interest expense | 49 | 54 | 49 | 33 | https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nke/financials | |
| depreciation | 705 | 747 | 706 | 649 | https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nke/financials | |
| Net working capital | current assets - current liabilities | 8659 | 9094 | 10587 | 9667 | |
| Current assets | 16525 | 15134 | 16061 | 15025 | ||
| current liabilities | 7866 | 6040 | 5474 | 5358 | ||
| cash | 4663 | 5245 | 6179 | 5457 | ||
| receivables | 4270 | 3500 | 3680 | 3240 | ||
| marketable securities | 4272 | 3498 | 2371 | 2319 | ||
| Stock price | 77.96 | 74.76 | 53.46 | 56.59 | ||
| Share outstanding | 1618 | 1659 | 1692 | 1743 | ||
| Net Income | 4029 | 1933 | 4240 | 3760 | ||
| Re | 39117 | 36397 | 34350 | 32376 | 30601 | |
| YOY | 7.47% | 5.96% | 6.10% | 5.80% | https://www.thebalancesmb.com/calculate-weighted-average-cost-of-capital-393130 | |
| Operating Income | ||||||
| https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018719000051/nke-531201910k.htm#s65767A490C7A5C20B3CF365278CCFCB0 |
Under Armour
| Under Armour's Performance Measures | ||||||
| Performance Measures | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Source (Link) | |
| Market value added ($ millions) | Market value of equity – book value of equity | 7656.31 | 5863.95 | 4344.99 | 10896.35 | |
| Market to book ratio | Market value of equity ÷ book value of equity | 4.56 | 3.91 | 3.15 | 6.37 | |
| Profitability Measures | ||||||
| Return on assets (ROA) | After tax operating income/total assets | 2.89% | -1.09% | -1.20% | 7.05% | https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UAA/under-armour/financial-ratios |
| Return on capital (ROC) | After tax operating income / (long-term debt + equity) | 4.21% | -1.70% | -1.73% | 9.11% | https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/uaa/financials |
| Return on equity (ROE) | Net income/equity | 4.29% | -2.30% | -2.39% | 9.75% | |
| EVA ($ millions) | After tax operating income – cost of capital x capital | |||||
| EBITDA | Net Income + interest + taxes + depreciation + amortization | 423.449 | 157.005 | 201.844 | 562.241 | |
| Efficiency Measures | ||||||
| Asset turnover | Sales/total assets at start of year | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.69 | |
| Receivables turnover | Sales/receivables at start of year | 7.91 | 8.52 | 8.01 | 11.15 | |
| Average collection period (days) | Receivables at start of year/daily sales | 46.13 | 42.85 | 45.55 | 32.75 | |
| Inventory turnover | Cost of goods sold/inventory at start of year | 2.74 | 2.46 | 2.98 | 3.30 | |
| Days in inventory | Inventories at start of year/daily cost of goods sold | 133.06 | 148.23 | 122.32 | 110.58 | |
| Profit margin | Net income/sales | 1.75% | -0.89% | -0.97% | 4.10% | |
| Operating profit margin | After tax operating income/sales | 2.65% | -0.89% | -0.97% | 5.32% | |
| A/P Turnover | COGS/ Accounts Payable | 4.52 | 5.09 | 4.88 | 6.31 | |
| Leverage Measures | ||||||
| Long term debt ratio | Long term debt/(long term debt + equity) | 35.30% | 25.87% | 27.48% | 28.02% | |
| Long term debt equity ratio | Long term debt debt/equity | 54.57% | 34.90% | 37.90% | 38.92% | |
| Total debt ratio | Total liabilities/total assets | 55.61% | 52.49% | 49.61% | 44.27% | |
| Times interest earned | EBIT/interest payments | 11.15 | -0.75 | 0.78 | 16.91 | |
| Cash coverage ratio | (EBIT + depreciation)/interest payments | 1993.64% | 454.18% | 539.60% | 2224.55% | |
| Liquidity Measures | ||||||
| Net working capital to assets | Net working capital/total assets | 26.43% | 30.10% | 31.88% | 35.10% | |
| Current ratio | Current assets/current liabilities | 1.90 | 1.97 | 2.20 | 2.87 | |
| Quick ratio | (cash + marketable securities + receivables)/current liabilities | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.11 | 1.53 | |
| Cash ratio | (cash + marketable securities)/current liabilities | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.62 | |
| Days in Inventory | 365/ Inventory Turnover | 133 | 148 | 122 | 111 | |
| Days in A/R | 365/ A/R turnover | 46 | 43 | 46 | 33 | |
| Days in A/P | 365/ A/P Turnover | 81 | 72 | 75 | 58 | |
| Market value of equity | Stock price x share outstanding | 9806.4 | 7880.82 | 6363.63 | 12927.25 | |
| book value of equity | Total assets - total liabilities | 2150.087 | 2016.871 | 2018.642 | 2030.9 | |
| After tax operating income | 139.818 | -46.302 | -48.26 | 256.979 | ||
| long-term debt | 1173.322 | 703.834 | 765.046 | 790.388 | ||
| equity | 2150.087 | 2016.871 | 2018.642 | 2030.9 | ||
| cost of capital | ||||||
| capital | long-term debt + eauity | 3323.409 | 2720.705 | 2783.688 | 2821.288 | |
| Inventories at start of year | 1019.496 | 1158.548 | 917.491 | 783.031 | ||
| cost of goods sold | 2796.599 | 2852.714 | 2737.83 | 2584.724 | ||
| sales | 5267.132 | 5193.185 | 4989.244 | 4833.338 | ||
| Accounts Payable | 618.19 | 560.884 | 561.1 | 409.67 | ||
| Total liabilities | 2693.444 | 2228.151 | 1987.725 | 1613.431 | ||
| Total assets | 4843.531 | 4245.022 | 4006.367 | 3644.331 | ||
| EBIT | 236.77 | -25.017 | 27.843 | 417.471 | ||
| interest | 21.24 | 33.17 | 35.84 | 24.69 | ||
| depreciation | 186.679 | 175.67 | 165.55 | 131.77 | ||
| Net working capital | current assets - current liabilities | 1280.2 | 1277.651 | 1277.304 | 1279.337 | |
| Current assets | 2702.209 | 2593.628 | 2337.679 | 1965.153 | ||
| current liabilities | 1422.009 | 1315.977 | 1060.375 | 685.816 | ||
| cash | 788.072 | 557.403 | 312.483 | 250.47 | ||
| receivables | 708.714 | 665.65 | 609.67 | 622.69 | ||
| marketable securities | ||||||
| Stock price | 21.6 | 17.67 | 14.43 | 29.05 | ||
| Share outstanding | 454 | 446 | 441 | 445 | ||
| Net Income | 92.139 | -46.302 | -48.26 | 197.979 | ||
| Total asset at start of year | 4245.022 | 4006.367 | 3644.331 | 2865.97 | ||
| receivables at start of year | 665.65 | 609.67 | 622.69 | 433.64 | ||
| Inventory | 892.258 | 1019.496 | 1158.548 | 917.491 | ||
| Quick assets | current assets - inventory | 1809.951 | 1574.132 | 1179.131 | 1047.662 | |
Income statement
| Nike Income Statements | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Net Sales | ||||||
| Cost of Sales | 27212 | 28885 | 31178 | |||
| Gross profit | ||||||
| Expenses | ||||||
| Depreciation | 649 | 705 | 747 | 705 | ||
| Operating income (EBIT) | 4502 | 4749 | 4445 | 4772 | ||
| Interest income | ||||||
| EBT | 4623 | 4996 | 4325 | |||
| Tax rate | 18.67% | 13.22% | 12.20% | |||
| Tax expense | 863 | 646 | 2392 | |||
| Net income | 3760 | 4240 | 1933 | |||
| Numbers in this color are from the former group | ||||||
Profitability+
| Profitability Measures (Nike) | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Profitability Measures (UA) | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
| Return on assets (ROA) % | 16.99 | 8.58 | 18.23 | 17.59 | Return on assets (ROA) | 0.029 | -0.011 | -0.012 | 0.071 | |
| Return on capital (ROC) | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.26 | Return on capital (ROC) | 0.042 | -0.017 | -0.017 | 0.091 | |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 44.57 | 19.7 | 34.17 | 30.67 | Return on equity (ROE) | 0.043 | -0.023 | -0.024 | 0.097 | |
| EBITDA | 5492 | 5219 | 5465 | 5164 | EBITDA | 423.449 | 157.005 | 201.844 | 562.241 | |
| Net Profit margin | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Profit margin | 0.017 | -0.009 | -0.010 | 0.041 | |
| Operating profit margin | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.14 | Operating profit margin | 0.027 | -0.009 | -0.010 | 0.053 | |
| Performance Measures (Nike) | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | Performance Measures (UA) | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
| Revenue | 39117.00 | 36397.00 | 34350.00 | 32376.00 | Revenue | 5267.00 | 5193.00 | 4989.00 | 4833.00 | |
| YOY | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | YOY | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.22 | |
| Net Income | 4029.00 | 1933.00 | 4240.00 | 3760.00 | Net Income | 92.14 | -46.30 | -48.26 | 197.98 | |
| MVA | 128237.00 | 114364.00 | 86180.00 | 84844.00 | MVA | 7656.31 | 5863.95 | 4344.99 | 10896.35 | |
| Employee | 76700.00 | 73100.00 | 74400.00 | 70700.00 | Employee | 16400.00 | 15000.00 | 15800.00 | 15200.00 | |
| Rev/Emp | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.46 | Rev/Emp | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Balance sheet
| Annual Data | Millions os US$ | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Cash | 5924 | 5457 | 6179 | 5245 | 4663 |
| Account Receivable | 3358 | ||||
| Inventory | 4337 | 4838 | 5055 | 5261 | 5622 |
| Other Current Assets | |||||
| Total Current Assets | 15587 | 15025 | 16061 | 15134 | 16525 |
| PPE | 3011 | 3520 | 3989 | 4454 | 4744 |
| Long-Term Investments | |||||
| Goodwill and Intangible Assets | 412 | 412 | 422 | 439 | 437 |
| Other Long-Term Assets | |||||
| Total Long-Term Assets | 6010 | 6354 | 7198 | 7402 | 7192 |
| Total Assets | 21597 | 21379 | 23259 | 22536 | 23717 |
| Total Current Liabilities | 6332 | 5358 | 5474 | 6040 | 7866 |
| Long Term Debt | 1079 | 1993 | 3471 | 3468 | 3464 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 2558 | 3763 | 5378 | 6684 | 6811 |
| Total Long-Term Liabilities | 2558 | 3763 | 5378 | 6684 | 6811 |
| Total Liabilities | 8890 | 9121 | 10852 | 12724 | 14677 |
| Common Stock Net | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Retained Earnings | 1643 | 3517 | 6907 | 4151 | 4685 |
| Comprehensive Income | 231 | -92 | -213 | 318 | 1246 |
| Other S/E | 10830 | 8830 | 5710 | 5340 | 3106 |
| Shareholder Equity | 12707 | 12258 | 12407 | 9812 | 9040 |
| Total Liabilities and S/E | 21597 | 21379 | 23259 | 22536 | 23717 |
DCF Valuation
| Nike Income Statement | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| Sales | 30601 | 32376 | 34350 | 36397 | 39117 | 41887 | 44854 | 48030 | 51432 | 55074 | ||
| % growth | 10.08% | 5.80% | 6.10% | 5.96% | 7.47% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% | ||
| Costs | 25777 | 27212 | 28885 | 31178 | 33625 | 35520 | 38036 | 40729 | 43614 | 46702 | ||
| % of Revenue | 84.24% | 84.05% | 84.09% | 85.66% | 85.96% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% | ||
| EBITDA | 4824 | 5164 | 5465 | 5219 | 5492 | 6367 | 6818 | 7301 | 7818 | 8372 | ||
| % of Revenue | 15.76% | 15.95% | 15.91% | 14.34% | 14.04% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% | ||
| Depreciation & Amortization | 649 | 662 | 716 | 774 | 720 | 856 | 917 | 981 | 1051 | 1125 | ||
| % of Revenue | 2.12% | 2.04% | 2.08% | 2.13% | 1.84% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | ||
| EBIT | 4175 | 4502 | 4749 | 4445 | 4772 | 5511 | 5901 | 6319 | 6767 | 7246 | ||
| % Margin | 13.64% | 13.91% | 13.83% | 12.21% | 12.20% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% | ||
| EBT | 4205 | 4623 | 4996 | 4325 | 4801 | 5703 | 6107 | 6540 | 7003 | 7499 | ||
| Tax Expense | 932 | 863 | 646 | 2392 | 772 | 996 | 1066 | 1142 | 1223 | 1309 | ||
| Tax Rate | 22.16% | 18.67% | 12.93% | 55.31% | 16.08% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% | ||
| Net Income | 3273 | 3760 | 4240 | 1933 | 4029 | 4707 | 5041 | 5398 | 5780 | 6189 | ||
| % Margin | 10.70% | 11.61% | 12.34% | 5.31% | 10.30% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% | ||
| Cash Flow Statement | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| NOPAT | 3243 | 3639 | 4103 | 2053 | 4000 | 4515 | 4835 | 5178 | 5544 | 5937 | ||
| Capital Expenditure | 960 | 1133 | 1092 | 1025 | 1114 | 1297 | 1389 | 1487 | 1592 | 1705 | ||
| % of Revenue | 3.14% | 3.50% | 3.18% | 2.82% | 2.85% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | ||
| Net Working Capital | 3434 | 4293 | 4739 | 4191 | 4011 | 4179 | 4355 | 4538 | 4729 | 4927 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018719000051/nke-531201910k.htm#s65767A490C7A5C20B3CF365278CCFCB0 | |
| Investment in Net Working Capital | -327 | 859 | 446 | -548 | -180 | 168 | 176 | 183 | 191 | 199 | ||
| FCF | 3259 | 2309 | 3281 | 2350 | 3786 | 3906 | 4188 | 4489 | 4812 | 5159 | ||
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Forcast | Min | Max | ||||
| ROE | 25.76% | 30.67% | 34.17% | 19.70% | 44.57% | 40.00% | 50.00% | |||||
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 29.19% | 28.70% | 26.73% | 64.27% | 33.05% | 29.42% | 33.05% | |||||
| Plowback Ratio | 70.81% | 71.30% | 73.27% | 35.73% | 66.95% | 70.58% | 66.95% | |||||
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 18.24% | 21.87% | 25.04% | 7.04% | 29.84% | 28.23% | 33.48% | |||||
| Nike's Equity was reduced greatly in 2018 and slightly in 2019. So we believe that it will only continue to decrease a little or remain the same level in next few years. Considering its net income will continue to grow, its ROE will be in the range of 40% and 50%. When calculating the average Plowback ratio, we neglect the data in 2018 due to the special tax rate which we believe will not happen again. To sum up, we forecast that Nike's sustainable growth ratio will be 28.23% to 33.48 in the next five years. | ||||||||||||
| Nike Balance Sheet | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| Cash | 5924 | 5457 | 6179 | 5245 | 4663 | 6699 | 7174 | 7682 | 8226 | 8808 | ||
| Inventory | 4337 | 4838 | 5055 | 5261 | 5622 | 6134 | 6569 | 7034 | 7532 | 8066 | ||
| Total Current Assets | 10261 | 10295 | 11234 | 10506 | 10285 | 12834 | 13742 | 14716 | 15758 | 16874 | ||
| % of sales | 33.53% | 31.80% | 32.70% | 28.87% | 26.29% | 30.64% | 30.64% | 30.64% | 30.64% | 30.64% | ||
| PPE | 3011 | 3520 | 3989 | 4454 | 4744 | 4749 | 5085 | 5446 | 5831 | 6244 | ||
| % of sales | 9.84% | 10.87% | 11.61% | 12.24% | 12.13% | 11.34% | 11.34% | 11.34% | 11.34% | 11.34% | ||
| Goodwill and Intangible Assets | 412 | 412 | 422 | 439 | 437 | 517 | 554 | 593 | 635 | 680 | ||
| Total Long-Term Assets | 6010 | 6354 | 7198 | 7402 | 7192 | 8306 | 8894 | 9524 | 10199 | 10921 | ||
| Total Assets | 21597 | 21379 | 23259 | 22536 | 23717 | 27383 | 29323 | 31399 | 33623 | 36004 | ||
| % of sales | 70.58% | 66.03% | 67.71% | 61.92% | 60.63% | 65.37% | 65.37% | 65.37% | 65.37% | 65.37% | ||
| Total Current Liabilities | 6332 | 5358 | 5474 | 6040 | 7866 | 7530 | 8063 | 8634 | 9245 | 9900 | ||
| % of sales | 20.69% | 16.55% | 15.94% | 16.59% | 20.11% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% | ||
| 57.73% | 53.01% | 55.00% | 49.92% | 45.34% | 52.20% | 52.20% | 52.20% | 52.20% | 52.20% | |||
| 42.27% | 46.99% | 45.00% | 50.08% | 54.66% | 47.80% | 47.80% | 47.80% | 47.80% | 47.80% | |||
| 1.91% | 1.93% | 1.81% | 1.95% | 1.84% | 1.89% | 1.89% | 1.89% | 1.89% | 1.89% | |||
| 27.83% | 29.72% | 30.95% | 32.85% | 30.32% | 30.33% | 30.33% | 30.33% | 30.33% | 30.33% | |||
| Nike Income Statements | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Net Sales | ||||||||||||
| Cost of Sales | 27212 | 28885 | 31178 | |||||||||
| Gross profit |
(backup)
| Nike Income Statement | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Sales | 30601 | 32376 | 34350 | 36397 | 39117 | 41887 | 44854 | 48030 | 51432 | 55074 |
| % growth | 10.08% | 5.80% | 6.10% | 5.96% | 7.47% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% | 7.08% |
| Costs | 25777 | 27212 | 28885 | 31178 | 33625 | 35520 | 38036 | 40729 | 43614 | 46702 |
| % of Revenue | 84.24% | 84.05% | 84.09% | 85.66% | 85.96% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% | 84.80% |
| EBITDA | 4824 | 5164 | 5465 | 5219 | 5492 | 6367 | 6818 | 7301 | 7818 | 8372 |
| % of Revenue | 15.76% | 15.95% | 15.91% | 14.34% | 14.04% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% | 15.20% |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 649 | 662 | 716 | 774 | 720 | 856 | 917 | 981 | 1051 | 1125 |
| % of Revenue | 2.12% | 2.04% | 2.08% | 2.13% | 1.84% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% |
| EBIT | 4175 | 4502 | 4749 | 4445 | 4772 | 5511 | 5901 | 6319 | 6767 | 7246 |
| % Margin | 13.64% | 13.91% | 13.83% | 12.21% | 12.20% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% | 13.16% |
| EBT | 4205 | 4623 | 4996 | 4325 | 4801 | 5703 | 6107 | 6540 | 7003 | 7499 |
| Tax Expense | 932 | 863 | 646 | 2392 | 772 | 996 | 1066 | 1142 | 1223 | 1309 |
| Tax Rate | 22.16% | 18.67% | 12.93% | 55.31% | 16.08% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% | 17.46% |
| Net Income | 3273 | 3760 | 4240 | 1933 | 4029 | 4707 | 5041 | 5398 | 5780 | 6189 |
| % Margin | 10.70% | 11.61% | 12.34% | 5.31% | 10.30% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% | 11.24% |
| (Ignore the tax data in 2018) | ||||||||||
| Cash Flow Statement | ||||||||||
| NOPAT | 3243 | 3639 | 4103 | 2053 | 4000 | 4515 | 4835 | 5178 | 5544 | 5937 |
| Capital Expenditure | 960 | 1133 | 1092 | 1025 | 1114 | 1297 | 1389 | 1487 | 1592 | 1705 |
| % of Revenue | 3.14% | 3.50% | 3.18% | 2.82% | 2.85% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| Net Working Capital | 3434 | 4293 | 4739 | 4191 | 4011 | 5030 | 5387 | 5768 | 6177 | 6614 |
| % of Revenue | 11.22% | 13.26% | 13.80% | 11.51% | 10.25% | 12.01% | 12.01% | 12.01% | 12.01% | 12.01% |
| Investment in Net Working Capital | -327 | 859 | 446 | -548 | -180 | 1019 | 356 | 381 | 408 | 437 |
| FCF | 3259 | 2309 | 3281 | 2350 | 3786 | 3055 | 4007 | 4291 | 4594 | 4920 |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Forcast | Min | Max | ||
| ROE | 25.76% | 30.67% | 34.17% | 19.70% | 44.57% | 40.00% | 50.00% | |||
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 29.19% | 28.70% | 26.73% | 64.27% | 33.05% | 29.42% | 33.05% | |||
| Plowback Ratio | 70.81% | 71.30% | 73.27% | 35.73% | 66.95% | 70.58% | 66.95% | |||
| Sustainable Growth Rate | 18.24% | 21.87% | 25.04% | 7.04% | 29.84% | 28.23% | 33.48% | |||
| Nike's Equity was reduced greatly in 2018 and slightly in 2019. So we believe that it will only continue to decrease a little or remain the same level in next few years. Considering its net income will continue to grow, its ROE will be in the range of 40% and 50%. When calculating the average Plowback ratio, we neglect the data in 2018 due to the special tax rate which we believe will not happen again. To sum up, we forecast that Nike's sustainable growth ratio will be 28.23% to 33.48 in the next five years. | ||||||||||
| Dallas+Juno | Assumptions | |||||||||
| JuChia+Haolei+Irene | Financial Statements+SGR+FCF | |||||||||
| https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018719000051/nke-531201910k.htm#s65767A490C7A5C20B3CF365278CCFCB0 |
