Respond to each students posts regarding the following question. Please put the names of the person to who you are responding too

a. Influenza

2. Find two different incidence rates for this disease. This can be either the rates of the disease in two different countries, age groups, ethnicities, occupation, or any other classifier that might be important to your disease. Provide the two different rates here. Cite your source.

a. The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%–11.3% among seasons

i. median values of 8.3% for all ages

ii. 9.3% for children <18 years

iii.  8.9% for adults 18–64 years (Tokars, Olson, & Reed, 2018)

1. I am somewhat surprised by these numbers because every study I have read has touched on how the elderly population is at higher risk for contracting and dying from influenza than any other population. I think this is mostly due to their diminishing immune systems and the suffering from other underlying diseases that come with old age. Children my contract the virus but it does not have a large impact on their health due to the resiliency of the younger population. I think that the numbers show that the younger population gets it more because they are more active in group settings such as daycare and school than the older patients.

1. Select a screening test or a confirmatory test for your disease. Report on what the sensitivity and specificity percentages are and cite your source. Also, provide the cost of the test.

a. Sensitivities of RIDTs are generally approximately 50-70%, but a range of 10-80% has been reported compared to viral culture or RT-PCR.

b. Specificities of RIDTs are approximately 90-95% (range 85-100%). Thus false negative results occur more commonly than false positive results. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2016)

c. Rapid flu test costs $5.00 to $10.00 (Zimmerman, 2018)

1. Using the method outlined in the excel document determine the PPV and NPV of using both screening tests in the two populations you selected.

a. Children <18 years        

i. PPV      82.16%

ii. NPV     90.47%

b. Adults 18-64 years        

i. PPV      5.66%

ii. NPV     100.00%

1. How much did each true positive cost?

1. Does it make sense to implement mandatory screening in either population? Why or why not?

a. Although $57 is inexpensive compared to $3000, given the nature of the illness and the advances in medicine we have today, I don’t think implementing mandatory testing is appropriate. $57 could add up fast for families with multiple children and if the patient is asymptomatic the testing is not necessary.

References

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2016, 10 25). Influenza (Flu). Retrieved from cdc.gov: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/clinician_guidance_ridt.htm#:~:text=Sensitivities%20of%20RIDTs%20are%20generally,commonly%20than%20false%20positive%20results.

Tokars, J. I., Olson, S. J., & Reed, C. (2018). Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 66(10), 1511–1518. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/cix1060

Zimmerman, B. (2018, February 8). 3 things to know about rapid flu tests. Retrieved from Beckers Clinical Leadership & Infection Control: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/3-things-to-know-about-rapid-flu-tests.html#:~:text=RIDTs%20rely%20on%20samples%20from,can%20cost%20more%20than%20%24200.

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Varicella-Zoster Virus