CLP Group ESG and effect on valuation

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UST052/A/1805

ENTELA BENZ ELLEN ORR

CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)1

An historic agreement to combat climate change and unleash actions and investment towards a low carbon, resilient and sustainable future was agreed by 195 nations in Paris today. . . . The universal agreement’s main aim is to keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.2

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris, 12 December 2015

Susan Chen read the announcement from the climate change conference with interest. As a keen environmentalist and an equity analyst covering the energy industry, Susan had both personal and professional motives to follow the climate change talks. Now that countries around the world had made a firm commitment to measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions [see Exhibit 1], Susan wondered how this commitment might affect the energy companies she followed.

Matthew Lok, the head of the research department and Susan’s boss, felt that the Paris Agreement would have little direct impact on equity research. While he agreed that reducing emissions was an important goal for society, he believed that it would be too difficult to quantify the effects of climate change rules and increasing environmental legislation on company valuations. If the impact of rules on carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were to be considered at all, in his view they should be studied separately from the traditional analyst’s metrics such as sales growth, market share, and costs.

Susan disagreed. Intuitively, she felt that companies with strong performances in environmental and social and governance (ESG) areas should be valued more highly than otherwise equivalent companies with

1 This case is based on research performed by HKUST students Adam Ho, Anjori Singh, Grant Cheng, Jiapei Liu, Nelson Wong, and William Yiu.

2 “Historic Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) press release, Paris, 12 December 2015, http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/finale-cop21/ , accessed 13 July 2016.

Ellen Orr prepared this case under the supervision of Professor Entela Benz solely as a basis for class discussion. The authors have disguised certain data to protect confidentiality. Cases are written in the past tense; this is not meant to imply that all practices, organizations, people, places or facts mentioned in the case no longer occur, exist or apply. Cases are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustration of effective or ineffective handling of a business situation.

Inquiry on ordering and permission to reproduce the case and its materials, write to [email protected] or visit cbcs.ust.hk

© 2017 by The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. This publication shall not be digitized, photocopied or otherwise reproduced, posted, or transmitted without the permission of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Last edited: 6 May 2018

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This document is authorized for use only by Khadija Ouzaka in FIN465 Innovations in Finance taught by ANDRES RAMIREZ, Bryant University from Aug 2020 to Nov 2020.

HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

weaker ESG performance. She strongly believed that this missing information, or the market inability to price such information, led to mispriced stock and, as such, investment opportunities. The challenge was how to identify the relevant ESG factors and incorporate them into a company’s valuation.

After consulting with ESG experts and reading several academic and industry papers, Susan concluded that while there was no unique model for ESG valuation, there was a strong case for ESG integration in valuation models.3 She identified several techniques to integrate ESG factors into conventional valuation calculations.4 She decided to apply these techniques to the Hong Kong utility CLP Group (CLP), and to use the results to persuade Matthew that ESG factors could be used to identify investment opportunities.

Hong Kong Electric Utilities and Sustainability

Electricity in Hong Kong was provided by two suppliers: CLP Power Company Hong Kong Limited (CLPHK) and the Hongkong Electric Company Limited (HKE). These two suppliers did not compete directly with each other. Instead, each served a defined, distinct geographical area of Hong Kong.

Both companies were vertically integrated, running generation, transmission, and distribution operations. Their business models were therefore capital intensive, with a relatively high proportion of fixed costs. Despite this cost structure, operating risk was considered low, due to the largely inelastic nature of demand for their services and the low threat of competition.

Though CLPHK and HKE were not government owned, the Hong Kong government provided guidance in the form of the “Scheme of Control Agreements” (SCA). These agreements allowed the government to monitor the companies’ financial affairs, service reliability, and environmental performance. The term of these agreements was 10 years, after which they were subject to renegotiation. The current SCAs, due to expire in 2018, allowed CLPHK and HKE to earn a 9.99% return on their investments generally, and an 11% return for renewable energy.5 This provision capped permissible returns for these quasi-monopolies, while allowing the companies to earn a reasonable return.

The Hong Kong Environment Bureau oversaw environmental regulation governing CLPHK, HKE, and the gas utility, Hong Kong & China Gas (HKCG). Since the end of the 20th century, the bureau had been implementing increasingly stringent environmental controls. From 1997, it forbade new coal-fired electricity-generating units and directed that existing coal-fired units should be retired after 2017.6 In 2014,7 it passed a new Air Pollution Control Ordinance, which specified gradually lower caps on air pollutants from local power plants [see Exhibit 2]. These environmental improvement measures were broadly welcomed by the Hong Kong public.8

3 Mozaffar Khan, George Serafeim, and Aaron Yoon, “Corporate Sustainability: First Evidence on Materiality,” The Accounting Review, 2015, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2575912.

4 W. Schramade, “Integrating ESG into valuation models and investment decisions: the Value Driver Adjustment Approach,” Robeco, 2015.

5 “Future Development of the Electricity Industry,” Legislative Council Panel on Economic Development, 23 November 2015, http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr15-16/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20151123cb4-217-3-e.pdf, accessed 31 October2016.

6 Hong Kong Environmental Bureau website, http://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/en/node2605/Consultation%20Document.pdf, accessed 25 November 2015.

7 “Hong Kong Air Pollution Control Ordinance,” version 10 April 2014, http://www.legislation.gov.hk/blis_pdf.nsf/4f0db701c6c25d4a4825755c00352e35/86682A3515C78D29482575EE005BD610/$FIL E/CAP_311_e_b5.pdf , accessed 25 November 2015.

8 “Future Development of the Electricity Industry,” Legislative Council Panel on Economic Development, 23 November 2015, http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr15-16/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20151123cb4-217-3-e.pdf, accessed 31 October 2016.

ST52A UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

The Paris Agreement, signed in December 2015, further boosted government and public support for clean energy. For the first time, the world’s major nations agreed to ambitious and well-defined measures to combat climate change.9 Adherence to these measures was likely to increase pressure on energy-intensive industries in Hong Kong and elsewhere to demonstrate their clean credentials.

The CLP Group

The China Light and Power Company Syndicate was formed in 1901 to meet Hong Kong’s then modest electricity needs. The company was founded with funding from the Kadoorie family, which retained control of the company through various reorganizations, including the formation of CLP Holdings Limited in 1998, to hold all the CLP Group’s businesses. The company’s shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In 2015, CLP Holdings posted revenues of HKD80.7bn and earnings of HKD15.7bn.10 [Financial highlights are shown in Exhibit 3.]

Through the 20th century, the company built and acquired a number of coal- and oil-fired power stations. In 1987, CLP, with its partner Guangdong Nuclear Investment Company, began construction on a nuclear power station at Daya Bay in mainland China’s Guangdong Province. This plant, commissioned in 1994, was CLP’s first low-emission power project, and eventually comprised almost one-third of its energy mix and approximately a quarter of Hong Kong’s energy needs.11

CLP continued to expand its use of clean energy technology. In the late 1990s, it commissioned Hong Kong’s first environmentally friendly gas-fired power station. The company also became involved with a hydropower project in Guangdong Province. At the same time, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, it was expanding in Asia and the Pacific, initiating projects in Taiwan, Thailand, India, and Australia.12

By the time CLP celebrated its centenary in 2001, it was clear to the company’s management that clean energy was critical to the industry’s future. In 2003, the company established a Group Environmental Affairs Department, appointing Dr. Jeanne Ng to oversee environmental strategy.13 Under Dr. Ng’s direction, CLP developed a sustainability framework, defining its commitment to economic sustainability, its people, the environment, and the community. In 2007, the company published its “Climate Vision 2050,” which pledged to reduce the company’s carbon intensity by 75% by the year 2050.14 To achieve this goal, CLP planned to diversify its fuel mix, increasing the use of cleaner technologies such as natural gas and nuclear power. [Exhibit 4 shows CLP’s energy mix.]

9 “The Paris Agreement,” UNFCC website, http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php, accessed 1 November 2016. 10 USD = HKD7.75 on 31 December 2015. 11 CLP Holdings Limited website, “About Daya Bay Nuclear Project,”

https://www.clpgroup.com/NuclearEnergy/Eng/aboutus/aboutus1_2.aspx, accessed 1 November 2016. 12 CLP Holdings Limited website, “Our History,” https://www.clpgroup.com/en/about-clp/company-profile/our-history,

accessed 1 November 2016. 13 International Sustainable Campus Network website, “ISCN Conference 2015,” http://www.international-sustainable-

campus-network.org/downloads/conference-and-symposia/iscn-conference-2015/422-jeanne-ng-director-group-sustainability- china-light-and-power/file, accessed 2 November 2016.

14 CLP Holdings Limited website, “Sustainability: Our Approach,” https://www.clpgroup.com/en/sustainability/our- approach/frameworks-strategies, accessed 2 November 2016.

ST52A UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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This document is authorized for use only by Khadija Ouzaka in FIN465 Innovations in Finance taught by ANDRES RAMIREZ, Bryant University from Aug 2020 to Nov 2020.

HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

Beyond clean energy, CLP considered broader issues in its community. Continuing the Kadoorie family’s philanthropic values, CLP maintained a community commitment program that focused on youth education, community development, arts and culture, and the like.

A distinctive feature of CLP’s approach to sustainability was its reporting. In addition to its standard annual report, the company produced sustainability reports in both a short summary version and a full online version. CLP also provided environmental performance metrics to many international surveys, including FTSE4Good, TruCost, Reputex, and others.15 The company’s shares were included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index Asia Pacific 40 and the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index. In 2010, CLP won the Globe Sustainability Reporting Award.16

Hong Kong’s other utilities, HKE and HKCG, also pursued ESG initiatives. HKE built Hong Kong’s largest commercial-scale solar power system and first commercial-scale wind power station. Its “Smart Power Campaign” and “Smart Power Fund” promoted energy efficiency. HKCG was the first in Hong Kong to use landfill gas commercially. It had a formal waste-reduction program, as well as a campaign to promote work-life balance. Both HKE and HKCG were members of the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index, but did not belong to any broader sustainability indexes. [Exhibit 5 gives descriptions of CLPHK, HKE, and HKCG businesses. Exhibits 6, 7, and 8 (Excel files) show ESG disclosure scores for the three utilities.]

As the SCA renewal date approached, CLP was doing well in the financial and environmental aspects of its business. But some risks were apparent. The Chinese economy was slowing, and broader demand in Asia was likely to be affected. Fuel prices were starting to rise again, after sharp declines in 2014 and 2015. Consumers were demanding continuing advances in clean energy, spurred by innovations such as electric cars, but they wanted cheap energy, too. Nuclear energy had low marginal costs and very low emissions, but was falling from favor in some quarters, following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. Other clean technology tended to be expensive. The twin goals of cheap and clean energy could prove elusive.

ESG’s Impact on CLP

Susan Chen was intrigued by CLP’s ESG performance and reporting of ESG key performance indicators (KPIs). She recognized, though, that reporting on the ESG KPIs, while good for transparency and firm reputation, did not necessarily affect share price, as the typical equity analyst lacked the ability to identify, interpret, and integrate ESG KPIs. This was partially caused by the overabundance of indicators and data, without any industry consensus on what was material. In fact, Susan’s research indicated that only a handful of ESG KPIs would be important to the firm’s valuation.

Therefore, her first step would be to identify the ESG KPIs that were material and had clear financial implications for electric utilities. These KPIs would be based on macro trends as well as more specific ESG trends in the industry. There were various third-party data providers that reported ESG metrics. There was no uniform setup for providing the data, with each provider having its own in-house methodology. [Bloomberg ESG KPIs for three Hong Kong utility companies are shown in Exhibits 6, 7, and 8].

15 Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants website, “CLP and Sustainability Reporting,” http://www.hkicpa.org.hk/file/media/section8_communications/pdf-file/annual-conference/2011/speech/jeanne-ng.pdf, accessed 2 November 2016.

16 Globe Award website, “Hong Kong Company, CLP Holdings Ltd, wins the Globe Sustainability Reporting Award 2010,” http://globeaward.org/winner-reporting-2010.html, accessed 2 November 2016.

ST52A UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

Susan did not want to appear to be “green washing,” or exaggerating the strength of the company’s commitment to environmental friendliness. To avoid this problem, she decided to focus on the materiality of each of the indicators and its long-term financial implication—how important it was to the company’s valuation. To accomplish this, she planned to assess the impact of each KPI on the valuation metrics and core business drivers for the utility sector. Using a framework similar to the one provided in Exhibit 9A, she would determine whether each KPI had a strong, moderate, or weak link to each valuation metric. Similarly, she could assess the impact of each KPI on CLP’s core business drivers for the utilities sector, as shown in Exhibit 9B, showing whether each KPI had a strong, moderate, or weak link to each driver. In either case, Susan would arrive at a list of the most material KPIs for CLP.

While these matrices would allow her to select the material KPIs, more analysis would be needed. Some of the KPIs, such as bribery and corruption, while having significant implications on the financial performance of the firm, had a low probability of occurring. Conversely, some other KPIs, such as solar panel innovation, had a high probability but low impact on the financials. Logically, Susan would need to focus only on the high-probability, high-impact KPIs. Using these KPIs, she would plot the industry’s materiality matrix, which would show the strength of each issue’s potential business impact (size of the impact) versus the potential sustainability impact (the likelihood of the impact). [See Exhibit 10 for the format of a materiality matrix.] Next, Susan would evaluate how CLP was doing on each of the material issues, relative to its industry peers. Based on her findings, she could begin to understand how these material ESG factors were likely to affect CLP’s valuation.

ST52A UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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EXHIBIT 1: KEY POINTS OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT

 The agreement calls for “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

 Countries should “reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter.”

 The agreement acknowledges “the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change.”

 The agreement requires all countries to monitor, verify, and report their greenhouse gas emissions and to update their plans regularly.

Source: “Key Points of the Paris Climate Pact,” New York Times, 12 December 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/climate/2015-paris-climate-talks/key-points-of-the-final- paris-climate-draft, accessed 8 December 2016.

EXHIBIT 2: HONG KONG EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS

Source: Environmental Protection Department (adapted), http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/strategies_apc.html, accessed 6 December 2016.

ST52A UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

EXHIBIT 3: SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA FOR CLP GROUP

(HKD millions) 2014 2013 Revenues 92,259 104,530 Earnings 11,221 6,060 Net cash inflow from operations 21,966 21,021 Total assets 214,663 211,685 Total borrowings 67,435 56,051 Shareholders’ funds 88,013 87,361 Return on equity (%) 12.8 6.8

Source: CLP Holdings Limited, 2014 Annual Report, p. 2, https://www.clpgroup.com/en/Investors-Information- site/Documents/Financial%20Report%20PDF/e_Annual%20Report%202014%20(full%20version).pdf, accessed 8 December 2016.

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HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

EXHIBIT 4: CLP ENERGY MIX AND VISION

Source: CLP Holdings Limited website, “2014 Sustainability Report,” https://www.clpgroup.com/sr2014/en/chart.html, accessed 6 December 2016.

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EXHIBIT 5: SELECTED INFORMATION ABOUT HONG KONG UTILITIES

Source: Research by HKUST students.

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EXHIBIT 6: ESG DISCLOSURE SCORES FOR CLP,

see Excel file: 2 CLP Holdings ESG Data

EXHIBIT 7: ESG DISCLOSURE SCORES FOR POWER ASSETS, OWNER OF HKE

see Excel file: 6 Power Assets Holdings ESG Data

EXHIBIT 8: ESG DISCLOSURE SCORES FOR HK & CHINA GAS

see Excel file: 3 HK China Gas ESG Data

ST52A 10 UST052/A/1805 CLP Group: Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Effects on Valuation (A)

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EXHIBIT 9A: MAPPING ESG KPIs ON VALUATION METRICS

Environment/ Social/Governance KPIs

KPI1 KPI2 KPI3 KPI4 KPI5

Revenue Growth

New products

New markets

New customers

Innovation

Reputation/differentiation

Return on capital/Cost of

capital

Operation efficiency

Reputation/Price premium

Workforce efficiency

Risk factors

Regulatory risk

Public support

Supply chain

Risk to reputation

Management quality

Leadership development

Adaptability

Long-term strategic view

Source: Adapted by E. Benz from Sheila Bonini, Timothy M. Koller, and Philip H. Mirvis, “Valuing Social Responsibility Programs,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 2009, Exhibit 2, http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/valuing-social- responsibility-programs, accessed 6 December 2016.

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EXHIBIT 9B: MAPPING ESG KPIs ON CORE BUSINESS DRIVERS FOR UTILITIES

Environment/ Social/Governance KPIs

KPI1 KPI2 KPI3 KPI4 KPI5

C or

e bu

sin es

s dr

iv er

s Access to labour

Access to natural resources Regulatory environment

Consumer demand

Innovation

Operational efficiency

Reputation

Source: Example adapted from Industry Analysis: Utilities, February 2014, Sustainalytics, http://www.sustainalytics.com/sites/default/files/utilities_february2014.pdf.

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HKUST Business School Thompson Center for Business Case Studies

EXHIBIT 10: MATERIALITY MATRIX FRAMEWORK

0 2 4 6 8 10

Lik el ih oo

d of im

pa ct

Size of impact

The most material ESG factors

Focus area

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