How to achieve food security in the face of climate change?
jwest5
climatechange2019.pptxIndicators?
Frequent strong summer storms
(Dorian, 2019)
Increase in CO2
concentration (2019)
Ice melts of glaciers, arctic, Greenland ice
How does it happen?
GHG are like the glass in a greenhouse
Climate change and global warming effects
More and stronger
storm systems (Dorian, 2019)
More unpredictable rain
(regular “100 year floods”)
Hotter and dryer climate
(multiyear droughts – 2011 to
2019 in CA)
NY Times
Portland Press
Wildfires (Campfire – CA, 2018)
NPR
No flood control in Ellicott City, MD
Fossil fuel-free energy production
Greenhouse gas production
Global share GHG by Agriculture
46% N2O: Nitrogen fertilizer
45% CH4: Livestock, rice paddies
9% CO2: Biomass burning
Baumert et al. (2005)
IPCC 2007
Greenhouse gas production
IPCC 2007
Forms
CO2
CH4
N2O
Causes
Conversion of forests and native vegetation to agriculture
Loss of soil organic matter
Fossil fuel burning
Animal agriculture (burps and farts)
Gaseous loss of fertilizer
GHG due to
lifestock
Methane is ca. 34 x more damaging than CO2
Agricultural land use
15,400
8,763
5,988
4,325
3,265
647
km3
105
km3
257
km3
131
km3
428
km3
Water requirements for additional
meat production in 2050
Additional Irrigation needs: ca. 1,6 mio km3 water
5.5 miles under
Water demands of food production
Mekkonnen and Hoegstra, 2010
CEDAC, CIESIN 2010
Effect of climate change on wheat production
Global CO2 emissions
411.9 ppm CO2 (March, 2019)
Can we assess the effect of high CO2 on crops
FACE (Free-air CO2 Enrichment), University of Illinois
increased productivity
better nitrogen use efficiency
better water use efficiency
Nutrient change under high CO2
Meyer et al., 2014
CGIAR, CCAFS
CGIAR, CCAFS
CGIAR, CCAFS
CGIAR, CCAFS
Adaptation requires diversity and flexibility
Adaptation requires avoiding food waste
Saving food waste is saving
energy (2% of total US energy)
$500/person each year
$180 billion HALF of all student loans in the country. Cost for free public universities $60 - $100 billion!!!
27
1 lb. pork = 4 lb. CO2
1 lb. beef = 14 lb. CO2
Alternative meat market
$14 billion 2019
$140 billion 2029
Conventional meat market
$1.4 trillion 2019
Adaptation requires changing diets
Beyond Meat Inc.
Impossible Foods (Burger King,
Red Robin, White Castle)
Moving Mountains
Before the Butcher
Tyson Foods
Nestle Sweet Earth Awesome Burger
Hormel Foods
Morningstar Farms (Kellogs)
Simply Balanced (Target)
Pura(Cargill)
Gardein (Conagra)
Arable land used for:
91.7 mio. corn (170 bpa)
80 mio. soybean (50 bpa)
16 mio. alfalfa hay (12 to. acre)
peas 35 bpa
wheat 65 bpa
soy 65 bpa
beetroot 17 to. pa
The impossible burger map
Changing diets also with dairy alternatives
W. Baethgen
Adaptation to much more extreme weather patterns
(better forecasting required)
Adaptation: Scenarios and predictions
Giannini (2015)
Nature Climate Change
Persistent drought in the
Sahel between 70s and 80s
caused by small changes
in global sea surface
temperatures
Adaptation: Role of markets
(New global economy required?)
W. Baethgen
FAO
Balance of adaptation, mitigation and food production
Mitigations of GHG emissions from agriculture
Reduce GHG emissions
Manage livestock (Diet change: chicken for beef?)
Complete change of diet without animal products
Manage nutrients (Cover crops, better NUE)
No-till, low-till systems
Carbon storage (sinks)
Higher productivity of forests and agriculture
More storage in trees and perennial plants
Avoid emissions
crops and residues as fuel are renewable resources
Agronomy
• Nutrient management
• Tillage/residue management
• Water management
• Rice management (Water, methane)
• Agroforestry
• Land cover (use) change
Managing croplands
• Grazing intensity
• Increased productivity
• Nutrient management
• Fire management
• Species introduction
Grazing and pasture management
70% of agricultural land is used as pasture
• Prevent draining
• Wetlands are unique ecosystems (CO2 and methane sinks)
• Provide many ecosystem services (flood regulat.)
Management of wetlands and tundras
Livestock Management
• Improved feeding practices
• Specific agents and dietary additives
• Long-term changes in
management and animal breeding
Manure management
(methane production)
What about the ice??
Sea level and climate change
294 billion metric tons – ice loss/year
Greenland and Iceland
Antarctica
127 billion metric tons – ice loss/year
Glaciers
400 billion metric tons ice loss/year
Sea level rise until 2100
year
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
6 m
Sea level rise until 2100
Changes in global sea level
49
IPCC 2007
Sea level data based on:
Reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red)
Tide gauge meas. Since 1950 (blue)
Satellite altimetry since 1992 (black)
Red and blue curves are the deviations form their averages of 1961 to 1990
Another way to detect change is in rising sea-levels
Rate for 1961 to 2003 is 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr and for the 20th century alone it is 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr
Sea-level rise is particularly destructive -
49
Rising sea-levels affect Maryland agriculture
University of Maryland; Keryn Gedan, George Washington University; Thomas Jordan, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Danielle Weissman, University of Maryland
50
Collapse of civilizations due to
climate change
Mayan culture 900AD
Cambodia, Angkor Wat, 15th century
Egyptian Kingdom, 2200 BC
