Wk4: Article Review & Wk4: Strategic Profile Analysis

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WK4 Article Review

Trae Clavo

Doctor of Business, University of Trevecca

Cur Topics/ Business Strategy (BUS-8020-O06.2)

Dr. Rick Mann

April 9, 2022

WK4 Article Review

J. Peter Scoblic (August 2020) wrote an article on uncertainty management by learning from the future. Economist Frank Knight states that uncertainty is better understood than risks (Merz et al., 2010) his argument. He can calculate outcomes as we already have experience with similar scenarios before. For instance, insurance companies calculate the likelihood of trouble before setting their premium prices but cannot calculate uncertainty.

When the coast guard decided to conduct a future view, they were aided by Future Strategy group (FSG), a consultancy firm specializing in scenario planning. The future strategy group argues that it cannot predict uncertainty. However, I can anticipate delays. Working with the future strategy group, the Coast guard expected four forces of change to impact their future significantly. It includes the role of the federal government, Insecurity in the U. S society, the U. S economy, and finally, the demand for maritime services. After evaluating these forces in 20 years, he obtained sixteen future worlds where the coast guards would operate. Out of the 16 obtained futures, the leaders of the coast guards sampled five that were distinctive from one another and represented a range of environments faced by the service.

Scenario planning in an immersive experience is very efficient. We will occasionally challenge existing mental models by bringing forth future articles such as fictional articles published in magazines and newspapers. It also disconnects the participants from the present and focuses on the future. All future worlds are given names that capture their essence. Future worlds are named to grasp their meaning, for example, "taking on water," which describes a world when the U. S economy has struggled due to environmental degradation.

In the long run, one has to establish an iterative cycle to reap the most outstanding value from the scenario exercise. An iterative cycle refers to a seamless process that orients an organization toward its future and present. A loop technique can be employed to interact with the gift and the organization's multiple imagined factors. (Quan et al., 2018) It gives the organization an added advantage, ensuring prosperity in the best conditions and survival in turbulent conditions.

PepsiCo Inc. may adopt this strategy to anticipate future uncertainty and be able to make plans to mitigate and adapt to these uncertainties. For instance, if they had adopted the method back in two thousand and nineteen, they would have an insight on how to handle the Covid-19 pandemic. Through learning from the future, PepsiCo would have been able to anticipate the civil unrest in Ukraine and Russia as they face significant challenges from their markets in the two countries. By incorporating this strategy, PepsiCo will better mitigate and overcome this uncertainty upon its occurrence. By using an iterative cycle, PepsiCo will be able to keep watch not only on its present but also on its future, thus growing its brand. The loop technique will be helpful to ensure that constant reviews are done to improve the strategies to adopt concerning their anticipated uncertainties; therefore, Pepsi will be able to attain its mission "create more smiles with every sip and every bite, as well as their vision of becoming a global leader in convenient beverages and food (PepsiCo.com)

In conclusion, experience from the recent pandemic has made it clear that assumptions and needs can change quickly and unpredictably. Therefore, preparations for the future require constant reviews and the loop technique. Strategic foresight, the ability to sense, shape, and adapt to changes, requires iterative exploration through various methods such as scenario planning. It could be a fundamental strategy adopted by the business to anticipate uncertainty and devise plans to adapt and respond to these uncertainties for both stable and turbulent times. It is also crucial to finance managers in making investment decisions.

Reference.

Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., & Thieken, A. (2010). Review article" Assessment of economic flood damage". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(8), 1697-1724.

Quan, P. L., Sauzade, M., & Brouzes, E. (2018). dPCR: a technology review. Sensors, 18(4), 1271.

https://www.pepsico.com/about/mission-and-vision