Bali attack Final

CJ 530 Final Project Guidelines and Rubric

Overview In a globalized world, counterterrorism efforts and research within the criminal justice field continue to expand, and their need is repeatedly underscored by each new attack. Those who seek to mitigate terrorist threats understand that terror does not occur in a vacuum. They explore how historical events, geopolitics, and previous terrorist attacks can influence the nature of terrorism in the world today. Counterterrorism professionals must have the ability to think critically and analytically about current and emerging threats and issues in order to consider all possible outcomes. One way this is achieved is by conducting an alternative futures analysis (AFA). Typically an AFA is conducted by counterterrorism analysts prior to the occurrence of a terrorist event so that alternative trajectories of a known threat can be identified. Rather than predicting one outcome, an AFA attempts to use the complexity and uncertainty of a situation to describe multiple possible outcomes (futures) that intelligence professionals and policymakers should consider.

For your final project, you will conduct a modified version of an alternative futures analysis. You will select a modern terrorist attack as a foundation for exploring alternative futures and critically analyzing the government’s response to the event. In your analysis, you will determine the historical events that set the stage for the attack, including the events that led to the formation of the terrorist organization involved. You will then consider the local and global impacts of the government’s response to the attack, along with the response’s intended goals and unintended consequences. You will describe a possible alternative response to the attack and explain how that alternative response might have made the terrorist organization more or less of a threat to the world today. Finally, you will evaluate the present counterterrorism approach of the country in which the attack occurred and explain how an alternative approach could potentially impact future terrorist actions.

Before beginning this assessment, you must choose one of the following modern terrorist attacks to use as the basis of your analysis.

 Bali nightclub bombing: Indonesia, October 12, 2002  Madrid train bombing: Spain, March 11, 2004  London bombing: England, July 7, 2005  Mumbai attack: India, November 26, 2008

The project is divided into three milestones, which will be submitted at various points throughout the course to scaffold learning and ensure quality final submissions. These milestones will be submitted in Modules Two, Four, and Six. The final product will be submitted in Module Nine.

In this assignment, you will demonstrate your mastery of the following course outcomes:

 Determine key historical factors that influenced the evolution of modern global terrorism  Analyze a terrorist event for determining the extent of its impact on the field of global terrorism  Analyze responses to terrorism for determining their expected outcomes and unintended consequences on local and global communities  Evaluate past and present counterterrorism approaches for informing future responses to terrorism

Prompt Imagine that you are a counterterrorism analyst working for an intelligence agency in the country in which your selected terrorist attack occurred. Your director has tasked you with conducting an alternative futures analysis on the attack. The purpose of your analysis is to present how the terrorist organization involved in the attack might have become more or less of a threat to the world today if the country’s government had responded to the attack differently. You will also evaluate the country’s current approach to terrorism and explain how a different approach could potentially impact future terrorist actions.

Specifically, the following critical elements must be addressed:

I. Introduction: Describe the details of the terrorist attack you selected. Be sure to include when, where, and how the attack took place, and the terrorist group responsible.

II. Background on th e Attack: In this section, you will discuss events that contributed to the attack’s occurrence, including the formation of the terrorist organization involved. Limit your focus to historical events that occurred from the Cold War to the present.

A. Explain how the history of the geographic region where the terrorist organization originated contributed to the attack. In other words, how did the region’s history create a volatile atmosphere or lead to tensions that contributed to the situation?

B. Describe the sequence of relevant historical events that set the stage for the terrorist attack. Events to consider might include government policies or decisions, political elections, military actions, and other terrorist attacks.

C. Describe the evolution of the terrorist organization involved in the attack. Be sure to consider the global historical attacks, policies, or decisions that led to its creation.

III. Analysis of the Attack: In t his section, you will analyze the terrorist attack and determine how it impacted the field of global terrorism. A. Explain why the event is considered a terrorist attack instead of an act of violence. B. Explain the ideology and underlying motivation of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack. C. Draw connections between the organization’s ideology and the global nature of the attack. Consider the following:

1. What was the attack intended to draw attention to? 2. How did the organization use the attack to further their global cause?

D. Explain the local and global impact of the attack in regard to who became involved in the response. Be sure to address the following: 1. Which local criminal justice, government, or private sector agencies were involved in responding to the attack? 2. Did other nations get involved, and to what extent?

E. Describe the impact of the attack on the terrorist organization itself. Consider the following: 1. Did it help or hinder the organization’s cause? 2. Did it lose or the gain the support of followers?

IV. Past Response and Alternatives: In this section, you will focus on how the government of the country in which the attack occurred responded to the event. You will also consider the impacts of the government’s response and suggest an alternative response.

A. Discuss decisions that were made and policies that were created in response to the attack to discourage terrorism, and explain the intended purpose of those decisions. You may consider both foreign and domestic policies.

B. Explain the unintended consequences of those decisions and policies. Consider the following: 1. Did the response negatively impact relationships with other countries?

2. Did the response unintentionally encourage terrorism? C. Describe how other countries were impacted by the response, using supporting examples. D. Discuss the lessons learned from the government's response. In hindsight, what did the government do wrong? What did it do right? E. Suggest a specific way in which the government could have responded differently to the terrorist attack. F. Explain how this alternative response could have changed the current state of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack. In other

words, if that alternative response had been used, how might the terrorist organization have been more or less of a threat to the world today? V. Current Approaches and Alternatives: In this section, you will consider the current counterterrorism approaches of the country in which the attack

occurred and discuss possible alternatives. A. Explain how the country’s overall counterterrorism approach has changed or evolved since the attack. B. Summarize arguments that exist for and against the country’s current counterterrorism approach. C. Using your research, determine if the country’s current counterterrorism approach is an effective one. Defend your conclusion. D. Describe a possible alternative to the country’s current counterterrorism approach. E. Explain the potential long-term impact of the alternative approach on preventing future terrorist actions.

Milestones Milestone One: Introduction and Background of Attack In Module Two, you will draft the introduction and background on the attack sections of your final project. In the Module Two discussion, you will choose which terrorist attack you will focus on for your final project. In this first milestone, you will complete an introduction and provide background information on your chosen attack. The milestones in this course will allow you to draft ideas and receive feedback from the instructor throughout the course. These assignments will ensure you are on the right track before you submit your final project in Module Nine. This milestone will be graded with the Milestone One Rubric.

Milestone Two: Analysis of the Attack In Module Four, you will submit an analysis of your chosen attack. In this analysis, you will determine how your chosen attack impacted the field of global terrorism. This milestone will be graded with the Milestone Two Rubric.

Milestone Three: Past Response and Alternatives In Module Six, you will focus on how the government of the country in which the attack occurred responded to the event. You will also consider the impacts of the government’s response and suggest an alternative response. This submission will be graded with the Milestone Three Rubric.

Final Submission: Alternative Futures Analysis In Module Nine, you will submit your final project. It should be a complete, polished artifact containing all of the critical elements of the final product. It should reflect the incorporation of feedback gained throughout the course. This submission will be graded with the Final Project Rubric.

Deliverables Milestone Deliverable Module Due Grading

One Introduction and Background of Attack Two Graded separately; Milestone One Rubric

Two Analysis of the Attack Four Graded separately; Milestone Two Rubric

Three Past Response and Alternatives Six Graded separately; Milestone Three Rubric

Final Submission: Alternative Futures Analysis

Nine Graded separately; Final Project Rubric

Final Project Rubric Guidelines for Submission: Your research proposal should be 10–15 pages (not including your title and reference page) in Microsoft Word, with 12-pt. Times New Roman font, double spacing, and sources cited in APA format.

Critical Elements Exemplary (100%) Proficient (90%) Needs Improvement (70%) Not Evident (0%) Value

Introduction: Details [CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and description demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of the attack details

Describes the details of the selected terrorist attack, including when, where, and how the attack took place and the terrorist group responsible

Describes the details of the selected terrorist attack, but description is incomplete or contains inaccuracies

Does not describe the details of the selected terrorist attack

3.96

Background on the Attack: History of the

Region [CJ-530-01]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation makes cogent connections between the attack and the region’s history

Explains how the history of the geographic region where the terrorist organization originated contributed to the attack

Explains how the history of the geographic region where the terrorist organization originated contributed to the attack, but explanation is cursory, illogical, or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain how the history of the geographic region where the terrorist organization originated contributed to the attack

7.92

Background on the Attack: Historical

Events [CJ-530-01]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and description provides keen insight into the relationship between the events and the attack

Describes the sequence of relevant historical events that set the stage for the terrorist attack

Describes the sequence of relevant historical events that set the stage for the terrorist attack, but description is cursory or illogical or contains inaccuracies

Does not describe the sequence of relevant historical events that set the stage for the terrorist attack

7.92

Background on the Attack: Terrorist

Organization

[CJ-530-01]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and description provides keen insight into how and why the organization formed

Describes the evolution of the terrorist organization involved in the attack, including global historical events, policies, or decisions that led to their creation

Describes the evolution of the terrorist organization, including global historical events, policies, or decisions that led to their creation, but description is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not describe the evolution of the terrorist organization involved in the attack

7.92

Analysis of the Attack: Terrorist Attack

[CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation demonstrates a nuanced understanding of the difference between a terrorist attack and an act of violence

Explains why the event is considered to be a terrorist attack instead of an act of violence

Explains why the event is considered to be a terrorist attack instead of an act of violence, but explanation is cursory or illogical or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain why the event is considered to be a terrorist attack

3.96

Analysis of the Attack: Ideology and Motivation

[CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of the organization’s ideology and motivations

Explains the ideology and underlying motivation of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack

Explains the ideology and underlying motivation of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack, but explanation is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain the ideology and underlying motivation of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack

3.96

Analysis of the Attack: Draw Connections

[CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and response demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of the motivations of the terror organization

Draws connections between the organization’s ideology and the global nature of the attack

Draws connections between the organization’s ideology and the global nature of the attack, but response is cursory or illogical

Does not draw connections between the organization’s ideology and the global nature of the attack

3.96

Analysis of the Attack: Local and Global Impact

[CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation provides keen insight into the impact of the attack locally and globally

Explains the local and global impact of the attack in regard to who became involved in the response

Explains the local and global impact of the attack in regard to who became involved in the response, but explanation is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain the local and global impact of the attack

3.96

Analysis of the Attack: Terrorist Organization

[CJ-530-02]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and description demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of how the attack impacted the organization

Describes the impact of the attack on the terrorist organization itself

Describes the impact of the attack on the terrorist organization itself, but description is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not describe the impact of the attack on the terrorist organization itself

3.96

Past Response and Alternatives: Decisions

and Policies

[CJ-530-03]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and response demonstrates a complex grasp of the decisions and policies that resulted from the attack

Discusses decisions that were made and policies that were created in response to the attack to discourage terrorism, and explains the intended purpose of those decisions

Discusses decisions that were made and policies that were created in response to the attack to discourage terrorism, but does not explain the intended purpose of those decisions at the time, or response is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not discuss decisions that were made and policies that were created in response to the attack to discourage terrorism

5.94

Past Response and Alternatives: Unintended

Consequences

[CJ-530-03]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of the unintended consequences

Explains the unintended consequences of the decisions and policies

Explains the unintended consequences of the decisions and policies, but explanation is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain the unintended consequences of the decisions and policies

5.94

Past Response and Alternatives: Other

Countries

[CJ-530-03]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and examples provided demonstrate a sophisticated awareness how other countries were impacted

Describes how other countries were impacted by the response, using supporting examples

Describes how other countries were impacted by the response but does not use supporting examples, or examples are inappropriate, or description contains inaccuracies

Does not describe how other countries were impacted by the response

5.94

Past Response and Alternatives: Lessons

Learned

[CJ-530-03]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and response provides keen insight into what was learned as a result of the government's response

Discusses the lessons learned from the government's response

Discusses the lessons learned from the government's response, but discussion is cursory or illogical or contains inaccuracies

Does not discuss the lessons learned from the government's response

5.94

Past Response and Alternatives:

Responded Differently

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and response provides unique insight into a possible alternative response

Suggests a specific way in which the government could have responded differently to the terrorist attack

Suggests a way in which the government could have responded differently to the terrorist attack, but suggestion is vague or inappropriate for the situation

Does not suggest a way in which the government could have responded differently to the terrorist attack

3.39

Past Response and Alternatives:

Alternative Response

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation provides keen insight into how an alternative response could have changed the level of threat the organization poses to the world today

Explains how the alternative response could have changed the current state of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack

Explains how the alternative response could have changed the current state of the terrorist organization, but explanation is cursory or illogical

Does not explain how the alternative response could have changed the current state of the terrorist organization

3.39

Current Approaches and Alternatives: Counterterrorism

Approach

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of the country’s past and present counterterrorism approach

Explains how the country’s overall counterterrorism approach has changed or evolved since the attack

Explains how the country’s overall counterterrorism approach has changed or evolved since the attack, but explanation is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not explain how the country’s overall counterterrorism approach has changed or evolved since the attack

3.39

Current Approaches and Alternatives:

Summarize Arguments

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and response provides keen insight into arguments supporting and opposing the country’s current counterterrorism approach

Summarizes arguments that exist for and against the country’s current counterterrorism approach

Summarizes arguments related to the current counterterrorism approach, but summary does not include both sides of the argument, or response is cursory or contains inaccuracies

Does not summarize arguments that exist for or against the country’s current counterterrorism approach

3.39

Current Approaches and Alternatives:

Effective

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and defense demonstrates a complex grasp of the effectiveness of the country's current counterterrorism approach

Determines if the country's current counterterrorism approach is effective and defends response

Determines if the country's current counterterrorism approach is effective but does not defend response, or defense is illogical

Does not determine if the country's current counterterrorism approach is effective

3.39

Current Approaches and Alternatives:

Alternative Approach

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and description demonstrates a sophisticated awareness of possible approaches to terrorism

Describes a possible alternative to the country’s current long- term counterterrorism approach

Describes a possible alternative to the country’s current long-term counterterrorism approach, but description is cursory or illogical

Does not describe a possible alternative to the country’s current long-term counterterrorism approach

3.39

Current Approaches and Alternatives:

Future

[CJ-530-04]

Meets “Proficient” criteria, and explanation provides keen insight into the potential future impacts of the alternative approach

Explains the potential long-term impact of the alternative approach on preventing future terrorist actions

Explains the potential long-term impact of the alternative approach on preventing future terrorist actions, but explanation is cursory or illogical

Does not explain the potential long- term impact of the alternative approach on preventing future terrorist actions

3.39

Articulation of Response

Submission is free of errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, and organization and is presented in a professional and easy-to-read format

Submission has no major errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization

Submission has major errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization that negatively impact readability and articulation of main ideas

Submission has critical errors related to citations, grammar, spelling, syntax, or organization that prevent understanding of ideas

4.99

Total 100%