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Cigarettes in France

Euromonitor International

July 2019

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t i

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

Headlines ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Prospects ..................................................................................................................................... 1

Strong Volume Decline for Cigarettes Following Second Tax Hike .......................................... 1 Illegal Trade Experiences Stronger Demand ............................................................................ 1 Demand for Microslims and Larger Packs ................................................................................ 2

Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................ 2

Philip Morris Marron Records Positive Volume Growth Amongst Declining Sales for Leading

Brands ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Economy Brands Lose Out To Mid Price and Premium Cigarettes .......................................... 2 Seita Groupe Imperial Tobacco Records Strongest Decline As News Suffers From Economy

Image ........................................................................................................................................ 2

Taxation and Pricing ..................................................................................................................... 3

Taxation Rates.......................................................................................................................... 3

Summary 1 Taxation and Duty Levies 2013-2018 ........................................................... 3

Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown ................................................................................ 3

Summary 2 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples ....................... 3

Category Data .............................................................................................................................. 4

Table 1 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018 ....................................................... 4 Table 2 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2013-2018 ..................................... 4 Table 3 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2013-2018 ...................................... 5 Table 4 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018 ..................... 5 Table 5 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2013-2018 .................................... 5 Table 6 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2013-

2018 ............................................................................................................. 5 Table 7 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume

2013-2018 .................................................................................................... 6 Table 8 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2013-2018 ............................. 6 Table 9 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2013-2018 ........................... 6 Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2014-2018 ....................... 6 Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2015-2018 .............................. 7 Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2013-2018 ............... 9 Table 13 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018................................ 9 Table 14 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2018-2023 ...................................... 10 Table 15 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2018-2023 ..................... 10 Table 16 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2018-2023 ..................... 10 Table 17 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2018-

2023 ........................................................................................................... 10 Table 18 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2018-2023 ................... 10 Table 19 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: %

Volume 2018-2023 ..................................................................................... 11 Table 20 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: %

Volume 2018-2023 ..................................................................................... 11 Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2018-2023 ............ 11 Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2018-2023 .......... 11

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t i i

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 1

CIGARETTES IN FRANCE

HEADLINES ▪ Cigarettes records 4% current value growth to reach EUR15.6 billion and declines by 9% in

retail volume terms, falling to 40.3 billion sticks in 2018

▪ High tax hikes lead to strong volume decline but higher growth of illicit trade for cigarettes in

2018

▪ Philip Morris France SAS strengthens lead of cigarettes in 2018 with a 45% retail volume

▪ Over the forecast period, cigarettes is predicted to record a -7% retail volume CAGR with

ongoing tax hikes into 2020 to continue negatively impacting demand for legal cigarettes

PROSPECTS

Strong Volume Decline for Cigarettes Following Second Tax Hike

Although the introduction of standardised plain packaging on cigarettes failed to have the

impact that the government was hoping for with regards to reducing smoking prevalence in the

country in 2017, a further increase in tax on tobacco products in March 2018 dramatically

increased the price of a 20-pack of cigarettes by EUR1, which made the cost of purchasing

cigarettes prohibitive to many lower-income consumers. This price increase supported higher

current value growth during the year but had a hugely negative impact on retail volume sales

which recorded a strong decline.

Some consumers turned to pipe tobacco which is cheaper compared to cigarettes and has

become fashionable in France with the trend for shisha smoking. There was also notable further

migration towards e-vapour products, which are also much cheaper than cigarettes and are

attracting consumers with constant innovation.

Falling demand was also compounded by the declining prevalence of smoking amongst the

French, as the health and wellness trend continued to gain momentum in the country.

Illegal Trade Experiences Stronger Demand

Unfortunately, the rise in prices also led to some consumers turning to illicit trade for cheaper

cigarettes, leading to stronger demand for the latter compared to 2017, when the first of the two

tax hikes emerged. The latter resulted in France having the most expensively priced packs of

cigarettes in continental Europe. High volumes of illegal trade stem from Spain and Andorra.

As smuggling and counterfeits result in a huge loss of income for the state, the fight against

illicit trade constitutes a major objective for the French government, with the implementation by

2019 of a tracking and tracing system for the legal supply chain. It will also support the

diversification of tobacconists towards complementary activities besides sales of cigarettes such

as selling e-vapour products, which continued to perform strongly in 2018. However, despite

efforts to reduce illegal trade through the tracking and tracing system at the beginning of the

forecast period, sales of illegal cigarettes are predicted to record consistent growth in line with

further declining retail volume sales for legal products.

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 2

Demand for Microslims and Larger Packs

While superslim cigarettes such as Vogue from British American Tobacco France continued

to gain retail volume share from regular and slim, 2018 witnessed demand amongst French

consumers for longer cigarettes with the niche of microslim the only length to record positive

retail volume growth.

With average prices of cigarettes continuing to rise, the gap between price bands narrowed,

with the share of economy losing ground to mid price products, in addition to recording the

highest retail volume decline. Unsurprisingly, with consumers looking to make savings, there

was growing demand for larger pack sizes, with

20+ packs gaining retail volume share from 20s with only marginal decline in sales compared

to the double-digit decline for the regular pack size. Winston Mega Classic 40 and packs of 100s

benefited from this trend including King’s Black 100’s.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Philip Morris Marron Records Positive Volume Growth Amongst Declining Sales for Leading Brands

Cigarettes continued to be dominated by multinationals in France in 2018, with Philip Morris

France SAS gaining further retail volume share, as its brands Marlboro Red, Philip Morris

Marron and Marlboro Gold led the overall category. However, Philip Morris Marron was the only

brand amongst the three to record positive retail volume sales. Strong international brand equity

supported demand for multinational brands as their names have the strongest recognition rate

which meant that they were not as impacted by the standardised plain packaging as smaller

brands as consumers simply requested their favoured brands by name.

Other brands to record positive retail volume sales in 2018 included JT International’s Camel

filters and Winston Red and British American Tobacco’s Lucky Strike. However, Benson &

Hedges Gold, distributed locally by Gallaher France for Japan Tobacco Inc, was the strongest

performer with a second consecutive year of double-digit volume growth, carrying a more

premium image.

Economy Brands Lose Out To Mid Price and Premium Cigarettes

The increasingly weak price differential between premium and economy 20-pack cigarettes

meant that smokers could see no reason to continue purchasing economy packs which led to

the strong decline for this price band, while mid price and premium cigarettes benefited brands

such as Marlboro and Benson & Hedges Gold. Economy brands such as News from Seita

Groupe Imperial Tobacco SA therefore recorded strong declines in retail volume sales in 2018.

Seita Groupe Imperial Tobacco Records Strongest Decline As News Suffers From Economy Image

Ongoing portfolio rationalisation was particularly noticeable by Seita Groupe Imperial Tobacco

SA, which recorded the strongest retail volume decline in 2018 amongst cigarette

manufacturers. Smaller brands with low recognition suffered more from the standardised plain

packaging and the disappearance of their visual identity compared to multinational brands such

as those offered by Philip Morris. However, while Seita Groupe Imperial Tobacco originally

reduced the size of its portfolio which benefited its News economy cigarettes in 2017, the brand

recorded one of the highest retail volume sales declines in 2018, prompted by the narrowing

gap between price bands due to further price hikes.

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 3

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation Rates

▪ Taxation on cigarettes in France is made up of VAT, ad valorem excise tax and a specific tax.

▪ Tax hikes on cigarettes generally take effect from 1 January, which is the start of the financial

year in France. However, the minimum perceived price for cigarettes is another instrument

used by the government to amend prices during the year.

▪ Under a plan set up by Agnès Buzyn, the new Health Minister, the biggest price hikes were in

November 2017 and March 2018, which resulted in dramatic price increases. The aim is to

reach EUR10 for the price of a 20-stick pack by 2020.

▪ With the government’s agreement, manufacturers have the option to set their own prices for

tobacco products on condition that they are above the minimum perceived price or above the

amount of total tax. In this case, tax hikes have no effect on retail price if manufacturers

decide to reduce their margins instead of increasing retail prices. Generally, however, tax

hikes have a direct impact on retail prices, in turn reducing the affordability of cigarettes for

low-income smokers.

▪ In order to justify further tax hikes, the government has introduced stricter border controls,

including penalties and prison sentences, while an EU-wide tracking and tracing system for

the legal supply chain was introduced in 2019.

Summary 1 Taxation and Duty Levies 2013-2018

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

valorem

excise (%)

49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 50.8

VAT/sales

taxes (%)

16.4 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7

Specific

taxes

(EUR per

1,000

sticks)

45.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8 59.9

Source: Euromonitor International

Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown

▪ With a minimum of 80% of the final retail price accounted for by tax, France has one of the

highest taxation rates on cigarettes in Europe, leading to the prevalence of illicit trade,

especially at the country’s borders.

▪ Manufacturers are free to set prices in line with the minimum price; prices are then published

in the Journal Officiel (JO) and need to be followed by retailers. The government has the

ability to amend the minimum price during the year.

Summary 2 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 4

P = ‘price’

in Euro

Premium Mid-priced Economy

Marlboro

Red

Philip

Morris Bleu

News&co

Rouge

Pack of 20 Pack of 20 Pack of 20

P % P % P %

Wholesale 0.82 9.29 0.77 8.98 0.70 8.47

Retailer 0.84 9.60 0.83 9.60 0.80 9.60

TOTAL

Retained

1.66 18.89 1.60 18.58 1.50 18.07

Specific

Excise

1.20 13.64 1.20 13.95 1.20 14.46

valorem

Excise

4.47 50.80 4.37 50.80 4.22 50.80

VAT 1.47 16.67 1.43 16.67 1.38 16.67

TOTAL

Tax

7.14 81.11 7.00 81.42 6.80 81.93

End Price 8.80 100.00 8.60 100.00 8.30 100.00

Source: Calculated from storecheck data and Taxation and Duty Levies Table. Notes: Figures may not sum up to 100% due to rounding

CATEGORY DATA

Table 1 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018

million sticks 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cigarettes 47,527.0 45,014.0 45,457.0 44,925.8 44,260.9 40,277.4

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2013-2018

EUR million 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cigarettes Including 17,175.7 17,265.1 17,570.3 17,535.4 17,579.9 18,326.0

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 5

Fine Cut Stick Equivalent Fine Cut Cigarettes 1,952.7 2,101.1 2,231.5 2,365.4 2,516.8 2,705.6 Cigarettes 15,223.0 15,164.0 15,338.7 15,170.0 15,063.1 15,620.4

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2013-2018

% volume growth 2017/18 2013-18 CAGR 2013/18 Total Cigarettes -9.0 -3.3 -15.3

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018

% current value growth 2017/18 2013-18 CAGR 2013/18 Total Cigarettes Including Fine Cut Stick 4.2 1.3 6.7 Equivalent Fine Cut Cigarettes 7.5 6.7 38.6 Cigarettes 3.7 0.5 2.6

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 American Blend 92.8 92.8 92.8 93.0 92.9 92.7 Virginia 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 Other Blend 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 6 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Standard (non-capsule/ 93.1 92.0 91.2 93.0 96.7 96.9 non-menthol) Flavour Capsule (all 3.1 4.2 5.2 3.6 - - flavours) Menthol (non-capsule) 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 6

Table 7 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Regular 97.5 97.0 96.6 96.2 96.1 96.0 Slim 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Superslim 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 Microslim - - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 < 20 - - - - - - 20s 88.2 88.3 88.5 88.6 88.4 87.3 20 + 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.6 12.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 9 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Economy price band 25.9 26.3 26.2 24.5 24.5 22.5 Mid price band 30.6 31.6 31.0 32.9 32.9 34.7 Premium price band 43.5 42.1 42.7 42.6 42.6 42.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2014-2018

% retail volume Company 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Philip Morris France SAS 39.9 41.0 41.7 42.4 44.5 Seita Groupe Imperial 21.7 21.4 21.6 22.1 19.7 Tobacco SA British American 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.1 Tobacco France JT International France 15.8 15.1 14.7 14.6 15.5 SAS Gallaher France 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Pöschl Tabak Gmbh & Co KG 0.3 0.3 - - - SEITA (Société - - - - - Nationale d'Exploitation

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 7

Industrielle des Tabacs et Allumettes) Altadis SA - - - - - Imperial Tobacco France - - - - - SA Others 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.7 2.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2015-2018

% retail volume Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Marlboro Red Philip Morris France SAS 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.5 (Philip Morris International Inc) Philip Morris Philip Morris France SAS 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.1 Marron (Philip Morris International Inc) Marlboro Gold Philip Morris France SAS 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.8 (Philip Morris International Inc) News (Imperial Seita Groupe Imperial - 4.8 5.7 4.7 Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Camel Filters JT International France 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.1 (Japan Tobacco Inc) SAS Winston Red (Japan JT International France 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.3 Tobacco Inc) SAS Lucky Strike British American 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 (British American Tobacco France Tobacco Plc) Lucky Strike Red British American 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.0 (British American Tobacco France Tobacco Plc) News Rouge Seita Groupe Imperial - 2.0 2.5 2.4 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Marlboro (Philip Philip Morris France SAS 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 Morris International Inc) Camel (Japan JT International France 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.1 Tobacco Inc) SAS Vogue (British British American 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 American Tobacco Plc) Tobacco France Gauloises Blondes Seita Groupe Imperial - 2.4 2.2 2.0 Bleu (Imperial Tobacco SA Brands Plc) Gauloises Blondes Seita Groupe Imperial - 1.9 1.8 1.6 Rouge (Imperial Tobacco SA Brands Plc) Gauloises Brunes Seita Groupe Imperial - 2.0 1.7 1.5 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Philip Morris Blue Philip Morris France SAS 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 (Philip Morris International Inc) JPS Black Original Seita Groupe Imperial - 0.8 0.9 1.3 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 8

L&M Red (Philip Philip Morris France SAS 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Morris International Inc) L&M (Philip Morris Philip Morris France SAS 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 International Inc) Philip Morris Philip Morris France SAS 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 (Philip Morris International Inc) Winfield Rouge x 30 British American 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 (British American Tobacco France Tobacco Plc) Benson & Hedges Gallaher France 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 Gold (Japan Tobacco Inc) Winston Blue x25 JT International France 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 (Japan Tobacco Inc) SAS Chesterfield Red 20 Philip Morris France SAS 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 (Philip Morris International Inc) Fortuna Rouge Seita Groupe Imperial - 1.4 1.1 0.9 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Lucky Strike British American 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 Convertibles Tobacco France (British American Tobacco Plc) Peter Stuyvesant British American 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Red (British Tobacco France American Tobacco Plc) John Player Special Seita Groupe Imperial - 1.2 1.1 0.8 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Gitanes Brunes Seita Groupe Imperial - 1.1 0.9 0.8 (Imperial Brands Plc) Tobacco SA Benson & Hedges Gallaher France 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 (Japan Tobacco Inc) News (Imperial Seita Groupe Imperial 4.2 - - - Tobacco Group Plc) Tobacco SA Gauloises Blondes Seita Groupe Imperial 2.5 - - - Bleu (Imperial Tobacco SA Tobacco Group Plc) Gauloises Brunes Seita Groupe Imperial 2.1 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) Gauloises Blondes Seita Groupe Imperial 1.9 - - - Rouge (Imperial Tobacco SA Tobacco Group Plc) News Rouge Seita Groupe Imperial 1.8 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) Fortuna Rouge Seita Groupe Imperial 1.5 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) Gitanes Brunes Seita Groupe Imperial 1.2 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) John Player Special Seita Groupe Imperial 1.2 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) JPS Black Original Seita Groupe Imperial 0.9 - - - (Imperial Tobacco Tobacco SA Group Plc) John Player Special Seita Groupe Imperial 0.7 - - -

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 9

Red (Imperial Tobacco SA Tobacco Group Plc) Others Others 22.0 21.9 20.3 19.2 Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2013-2018

% retail volume 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Store-Based Retailing 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 - Grocery Retailers 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 -- Convenience Stores - - - - - - -- Discounters - - - - - - -- Forecourt Retailers 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -- Hypermarkets - - - - - - -- Supermarkets - - - - - - -- Food/drink/tobacco 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 specialists --- Food/drink - - - - - - specialists --- Tobacco specialists 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 -- Independent Small - - - - - - Grocers -- Other Grocery 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.6 Retailers --- Newsagent- 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.5 tobacconists/kiosks --- Street vendors - - - - - - - Mixed Retailers - - - - - - -- Department Stores - - - - - - -- Other Mixed Retailers - - - - - - - Non-Grocery Specialists - - - - - - -- Drugstores/ - - - - - - parapharmacies -- Other Non-Grocery - - - - - - Specialists Non-Store Retailing - - - - - - - Vending - - - - - - - Internet Retailing - - - - - - Non-retail channels 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.8 - Bar-tobacconists 62.1 62.1 62.0 62.0 62.1 62.1 - Hotels/restaurants/bars 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 13 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018

million sticks 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Legal sales 47,527.0 45,014.0 45,457.0 44,925.8 44,260.9 40,277.4 Illicit trade 8,838.5 9,209.7 9,000.0 8,965.9 9,154.1 9,419.6 % penetration of 15.7 17.0 16.5 16.6 17.1 19.0

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 1 0

illicit trade Actual consumption 56,365.5 54,223.7 54,457.0 53,891.7 53,415.0 49,697.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade interviews

Table 14 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2018-2023

million sticks 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cigarettes 40,277.4 36,853.8 34,016.1 31,873.1 29,801.3 28,043.1

Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 15 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2018-2023

EUR million 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cigarettes Including 18,326.0 18,672.6 18,892.6 19,066.7 19,168.8 19,342.1 Fine Cut Stick Equivalent Fine Cut Cigarettes 2,705.6 2,840.9 2,951.7 3,046.2 3,116.3 3,225.3 Cigarettes 15,620.4 15,831.7 15,940.8 16,020.5 16,052.6 16,116.8

Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 16 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2018-2023

% volume growth 2018/19 2018-23 CAGR 2018/23 Total Cigarettes -8.5 -7.0 -30.4

Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 17 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023

% constant value growth 2018/2019 2018-23 CAGR 2018/23 Total Cigarettes Including Fine Cut Stick 1.9 1.1 5.5 Equivalent Fine Cut Cigarettes 5.0 3.6 19.2 Cigarettes 1.4 0.6 3.2

Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 18 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2018-2023

% retail volume 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 1 1

American Blend 92.7 92.5 92.4 92.4 92.4 92.2 Virginia 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 Other Blend 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 19 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2018- 2023

% retail volume 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Standard (non-capsule/ 96.9 97.2 98.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 non-menthol) Flavour Capsule (all - - - - - - flavours) Menthol (non-capsule) 3.1 2.8 1.8 - - - Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 20 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2018-2023

% retail volume 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Regular 96.0 95.9 95.7 95.6 95.4 95.3 Slim 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Superslim 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 Microslim 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2018-2023

% retail volume 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 < 20 - - - - - - 20s 87.3 87.0 86.9 86.9 86.8 86.7 20 + 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2018-2023

% retail volume 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

C I G A R E T T E S I N F R A N C E P a s s p o r t 1 2

Economy price band 22.5 19.6 6.9 - - - Mid price band 34.7 34.9 33.5 13.5 - - Premium price band 42.8 45.5 59.6 86.5 100.0 100.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources