Exam

ChoJung.PETheory.SewolFerryDisaster.pdf

Home >Political Science homework help >Exam

Please! cite! this! article! in! press! as:! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung.! Illuminating! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! using! the! institutional! model of! punctuated! equilibrium! theory.! The! Social! Science! Journal! (2019),! https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

The ! Social ! Science ! Journal

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / s o s c i j

Illuminating ! the ! Sewol ! Ferry ! Disaster ! using ! the ! institutional model ! of ! punctuated ! equilibrium ! theory

Ki ! Woong ! Cho a,! Kyujin ! Jung b,∗ a Department! of! Public! Administration,! Korea! University,! Seoul,! 02841,! South! Korea b Department! of! Public! Administration! and! the! Graduate! School! of! Governance,! Sungkyunkwan! University,! Seoul,! 03063,! South! Korea

a ! r ! t ! i! c ! l ! e ! i ! n ! f ! o

Article! history: Received! 15! February! 2018 Received! in! revised! form 31! December! 2018 Accepted! 31! December! 2018 Available! online! xxx

Keywords: Punctuated! equilibrium! theory Sewol! Ferry! Disaster Three! Sewol! Acts Policy! process Google! Trends

a ! b ! s ! t ! r ! a ! c ! t

The ! Sewol ! Ferry ! Disaster ! undermined ! the ! South ! Korean ! government’s ! efforts ! to ! establish the! country ! as! a ! crisis-free ! region. ! Considering ! the ! number ! of ! fatalities ! and ! the ! immensity of! the ! disaster, ! the ! South ! Korean ! legislators ! passed ! three ! acts ! concerning ! the ! Sewol ! Ferry Disaster:! the ! Sewol ! Special ! Act,! the ! Government ! Organization ! Act, ! and ! the ! Yoo ! Byung- eun ! Act.! The ! strength ! of! this ! study ! is! that ! it! illuminates ! the ! Sewol ! Ferry ! Disaster ! using! the institutional ! model ! of ! the ! punctuated ! equilibrium ! theory ! (PET), ! applied ! in ! a! Korean ! setting. Moreover, ! it! elucidates ! the ! concept ! of ! punctuated ! events ! and ! their ! impact ! on ! budgets ! and public! attention, ! primarily ! using ! Google ! Trends, ! as! it! examines ! policy ! changes ! following ! the disaster ! and! demonstrates ! inconsistencies ! in! the ! PET. ! The! authors ! conducted ! a! case ! study ! on the ! Sewol ! Ferry ! Disaster ! and ! the ! three ! subsequent ! Sewol ! Acts ! to! illuminate ! the! effect ! of ! the disaster! on ! policy ! processes. ! Using ! the ! prior ! history ! of ! punctuated ! events ! in! South ! Korea, ! we demonstrated ! a! higher ! propensity ! for! punctuation ! and ! the ! functions ! of ! positive ! feedback after ! the ! policy ! monopoly ! collapse ! that ! followed ! the ! Sewol ! Ferry ! Disaster ! in ! South ! Korea. We! also! demonstrated ! that ! fewer ! instances ! of! negative ! feedback ! are ! observed ! in! South Korea ! than! in! the ! United ! States. ! Based ! on ! these ! findings, ! PET ! can ! be ! applied ! and ! developed a ! larger ! number ! of! different ! settings ! by ! future ! studies.

©! 2019 ! Western ! Social ! Science ! Association. ! Published ! by ! Elsevier ! Inc. ! All ! rights ! reserved.

1.! Introduction

Political! systems! respond! to! crises! with! increased! atten- tion! when! a! focusing! event! occurs! (Birkland,! 2006,! 1997). Organizations! change! their! budgets! and! organizational structure! in! accordance! with! new! laws! after! a! focusing event! such! as! a! disaster,! a! large-scale! incident,! or! a! scan- dal.! Good! management! in! response! to! significant! problems contributes! to! the! likelihood! that! politicians! will! be! elected. For! instance,! government! agencies! are! the! primary! enti-

∗ Corresponding! author. E-mail! address:! [email protected]! (K.! Jung).

ties! that! respond! to! disasters,! especially! following! the emergence! of! a! disaster! (Schneider,! 1995).! Disasters! influ- ence! the! perceptions! of! voters! regardless! of! their! direct experience! with! disasters! (Gasper! &! Reeves,! 2011).! Poor management! of! emergency! situations! can! threaten! the public! perception! of! political! regimes! (Kim,! 2008).! More- over,! like! many! other! catastrophic! events,! those! that! are unexpected,! such! as! the! September! 11! attacks,! promote presidential! authority! and! the! centralization! of! presidential power! (Sylves,! 2008),! which! is! called! “disaster! politiciza- tion”! (Chung,! 2013;! Hörhager,! 2015).! This! research! aims! to investigate! disaster! politicization! by! examining! the! Sewol Ferry! Disaster! of! 2014! in! South! Korea.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010 0362-3319/©! 2019! Western! Social! Science! Association.! Published! by! Elsevier! Inc.! All! rights! reserved.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03623319

http://www.elsevier.com/locate/soscij

mailto:[email protected]

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 2! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Table! 1 Final! Outcomes! after! the! Sewol! Disaster.

Total! Students! Teachers! Passengers! Crew! Other

Persons! aboard! 476! 325! 14! 104! 23! 10 Survivors! 172! 75! 3! 71! 18! 5 Deceased! 295! 246! 9! 30! 5! 5 Missing! 9! 4! 2! 3! –! –

1.1.! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster

On! April! 16,! 2014,! the! Sewol! Ferry1 left! for! Jeju! Island from! Incheon.! Most! of! the! passengers! were! in! their! sec- ond! year! of! high! school! in! the! city! of! Ansan! in! the! Gyeonggi Province! and! had! boarded! as! part! of! a! school! excursion. The! Disaster! occurred! approximately! 20! km! off! the! coast of! Byungpoong! Island! to! the! southwest! of! mainland! South Korea! (Jung,! Song,! &! Park,! 2018).! Officials! claimed! that! a combination! of! overloading,! incorrect! freight! binding,! the ship’s! diminished! self-righting! force,! and! steering! mistakes caused! the! accident! (Truth! Foundation! Sewol! Ferry! Recode Team,! 2016).! The! government’s! poor! performance! and inappropriate! decisions! contributed! to! the! deaths! of! more than! 300! victims! (Hwang,! 2015);! the! death! toll! elevated public! interest! in! the! event.! For! instance,! the! government did! not! know! the! exact! number! of! passengers! on! the! ship.! In fact,! false! reports! were! even! made! of! the! successful! rescue of! all! passengers.! After! the! ferry! capsized! and! was ! sub- merged,! no! additional! students! were! able! to! be! rescued (See! Table! 1).! The! government’s! poor! decisions! led! to! a man-made! disaster! (Shaluf,! 2007;! Tarn,! Wen,! &! Shih,! 2008), which! was! further! complicated! by! the! media’s! criticism! of the! government’s! response.! To! make! matters! worse,! other problems! (such! as! fast! currents,! poor! visibility! in! the! water, and! technical! issues)! prevented! divers! from! quickly! retriev- ing! passengers.! The! images! and! coverage! of! these! fatalities presumably! led! to! better! restitution! for! victims! and! their families! because! the! coverage! of! these! fatalities! brought greater! attention! to! their! plight.

This! local! disaster! became! a! national! issue! that! many Korean! political! figures! used! to! shape! the! country’s! disaster management! policy.! The! Korea! Institute! of! Finance! pre- dicted! that! the! growth! rate! would! decrease! by! 0.1%! due! to the! public! concern! surrounding! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.2

This! facilitated! social! conflict! between! the! ruling! party! and opposition! parties! as! well! as! between! members! of! the! con- servative! and! liberal! populace! regarding! the! best! course! of action! for! dealing! with! this! disaster.! Ultimately,! the! disas- ter! shattered! the! Korean! societal! norm! related! to! the! issue of! safety,! fostered! more! disaster! and! safety! alerts,! and! led

1 “The! gross! registered! tonnage! of! the! ferry! was ! 6,835,! and! its! length was ! 146.61! m. ! Its! beam! was! 22! meters,! and! its! draught! was ! 6.26! m. ! The ferry! had! 64! cabins! and! 5! decks”! (Jung! et! al.,! 2018,! p.! 278).! The! type! of ship! is! a! combined-use! ferry/cargo! ship! with! a! capacity! of! 921! (McKirdy & ! Cha,! 2014).

2 This! national! mood! even! affected! the! Korean! economy.! Public! agen- cies! and! even! private! companies! tended! to! curtail,! cancel,! or! postpone their! ceremonies.! Many! high! schools! canceled! or! postponed! their! school excursions,! which! caused! a! debate! over! the! necessity! of! school! excursions.

to! unprecedented! sweeping! changes! to! emergency! organi- zations! and! budgets! within! disaster-related! organizations.

These! changes! led! to! a! transformation! of! disaster management! and! policies.! Usually,! controversies! do! not follow! disasters! because! even! opponents! employ! disas- ter! as! an! opportunity! to! demonstrate! their! abilities! as leaders! (Schneider,! 1995).! However,! many! controversies followed! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! as! politicians! fought over! how! to! investigate! and! prevent! future! disasters! and abruptly! passed! acts! and! created! organizations! to! deal! with such! crises.! These! actions! made! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster emblematic! of! PET! in! South! Korea.! Due! to! its! status! as! a national! political! controversy,! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! is! a prime! example! for! exploring! the! influence! of! such! events on! government! organizations! and! budgets,! the! media,! and citizen! engagement! in! disaster! politics.

1.2.! Research! questions

Organizations,! budgets,! the! media,! citizen! attention, and! public! administration! in! general! play! an! important role! in! public! policy! and! management.! As! such,! we! need to! analyze! the! dramatic! changes! in! organizations,! budgets, the! level! of! attention,! and! policies! that! follow! substantial events! to! prevent! disasters.! Stated! generally,! our! research question! is! as! follows:! According! to! the! PET! institutional model,! how! and! why! did! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! as! well the! subsequent! actions! and! interactions! of! actors! in! the! pol- icy! arena,! break! the! policy! monopoly! and! shape! the! resultant new! policy?! To! answer! this! question,! this! research! primarily focuses! on! the! application! of! PET! in! the! field! of! public! pol- icy! related! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! and! the! authors! seek to! detect! discrepancies! between! the! theory! in! the! United States! and! its! practice! in! South! Korea! and! non-U.S.! settings, as! suggested! by! Mortensen! (2005).

After! a! brief! review! of! the! theoretical! literature,! the research! method! is! presented! and! a! case! study! of! the! Sewol Ferry! Disaster! is! outlined! using! the! PET! institutional! model. Furthermore,! the! reaction! of! political! systems! and! policy change! following! the! disaster! within! the! PET! are! discussed. Thereafter,! the! discrepancies! between! the! theory! in! the United! States! and! its! practice! in! South! Korea! are! illumi- nated.

2.! Literature! review! and! theoretical! considerations

2.1.! Punctuated! equilibrium! theory

Scholars! have! associated! incremental! decision! making with! bounded! rationality! and! have! refocused! on! PET! as! well (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1993;! Jones! &! Baumgartner,! 2005b;

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 3

Jones! et! al.,! 2003).! People! generally! see! policy! changes gradually! and! observe! rapid! change! following! a! focusing event! (Birkland,! 1997).! Previously,! this! was! the! main! topic of! policy! change! for! decades! regarding! the! policy! process (Robinson,! Flink,! &! King,! 2014).! PET,! a! concept! originating from! evolutionary! biology! (Gould! &! Eldredge,! 1993;! Jones! & Baumgartner,! 2012),! addressed! this! debate! by! incorporat- ing! both! concepts! into! a! single! perspective! of! policy! change (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 2009).! PET! suggests! that! abrupt changes! in! stable! policy! equilibrium—referred! to! as! a! policy monopoly3 —occur! when! a! monopoly! collapses! following sudden! societal! shock! events.! Using! the! concepts! of! image and! venue,4 PET! uses! the! collapse! of! policy! monopolies! and positive! and! negative! feedback! to! explain! the! dynamics of! stability! and! describes! changes! in! budget! and! attention following! a! major! event.

“Policy! change! is,! paradoxically,! both! incremental! and rapid”! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014,! p.! 459).! PET! assigns! two periods! to! policymaking:! a! policy! stasis! of! incremental- ism! for! long! periods! and! policy! punctuations! for! a! short period! (Baumgartner! &! Jones! 1993;! Baumgartner,! Jones,! & Mortensen,! 2014;! Fowler,! Neaves,! Terman,! &! Cosby,! 2017; Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! Positive! feedback! dynamics! acceler- ate! change,! while! negative! feedback! dynamics! slow! down or! resist! change.! Baumgartner! and! Jones! (1993)! mentioned that! the! long! period! of! negative! feedback! was! overcome and! replaced! by! large-scale! changes! and! positive! feedback in! American! politics.

The! politics! of! equilibrium! in! subsystems! are! main- tained! by! the! “politics! of! the! policy! monopoly,! incremen- talism,! a! widely! accepted! supportive! image,! and! negative feedback”! (Baumgartner! et! al.,! 2014,! p.! 67).! Negative! feed- back! occurs! when! a! policy! subsystem! ignores! signals! and reinforces! the! status! quo,! usually! representing! incremental patterns! (Princen,! 2013).! Under! a! singular! policy! image,! a policy! monopoly! can! successfully! remain! when! this! image conforms! to! its! culture! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).! The! pol- icy! monopoly! suppresses! change! with! negative! feedback; however,! this! does! not! always! work! (Baumgartner! et! al., 2014).

When! a! policy! monopoly! is! broken! up! and! there! is! a change! in! the! way! an! issue! is! defined! (Marichal,! 2009), the! issue! moves! from! the! subsystem! to! a! position! on! the macro-political! agenda! (True,! Jones,! &! Baumgartner,! 2007). The! collapse! of! policy! monopolies! causes! a! loss! of! con- trol! over! policy! images5 and! allows! more! participation! in the! creation! of! public! policy! than! was! possible! before! the shock! event! (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1993;! Birkland,! 2006; Birkland,! 1997).! A! positive! image! is! damaged! by! a! neg- ative! image! that! is! supported! by! media! and! pro-change groups! and! catalyzes! the! collapse! of! the! policy! monopoly

3 A! small! group! of! political! stakeholders,! who! maintain! control! over their! decision-making! and! benefits! in! policy! subsystems! to! ensure! incre- mental! policymaking! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).

4 Venues! are! institutional! loci! for! which! authorities! determine! a! special policy! (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1991).

5 Policy! image! expresses! the! empirical! information! and! emotional appeal! and! demonstrates! cultural! norms! (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1993). A ! policy! monopoly! can! be! successful! with! a! singular! policy! image! (Fowler et! al.,! 2017).

(Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1993;! Yu,! 2009).! Meanwhile,! posi- tive! feedback! follows! the! compromised! image! and! serves! to spread! information! on! the! issue! to! other! venues! (Princen, 2013).! Due! to! the! positive! feedback,! a! political! agenda assists! public! policies’! movement! to! a! new! equilibrium, while! negative! feedback! reduces! these! changes! (True! et! al., 2007).! New! actors! involved! with! a! fresh! image! push! it! to the! macro-political! stage,! and! that! image! becomes! per- vasive! (Mortensen,! 2009;! Kingdon,! 1995).! In! addition! to the! mobilization! of! interest! and! policy! image! change,! cul- tural! change! follows! as! a! new! cultural! norm! is! established (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).! Thus,! cultural! change! is! at! the! core! of policy! change! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).

PET! is! also! theorized! in! the! context! of! two ! venues:! policy subsystems! and! macro-political! environments! (Redford, 1969).! Focusing! events! (e.g.,! disasters,! large-scale! events, and! scandals)! encourage! political! systems! to! experi- ence! drastic! changes! in! their! legislative! decision! making (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017)! by! pushing! issues! from! subsystems to! macro-political! environments! and! achieving! cultural penetration6 (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).! As! dramatic! change occurs,! power! breakdowns! in! the! policy! subsystem! shift to! the! macro-political! environment! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017). Attention,! scrutiny,! and! mobilization! in! terms! of! new! inter- ests! facilitate! the! breaking! down! of! the! status! quo! and policy! monopolies! (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1993;! Fowler et! al.,! 2017).! Ultimately,! unlike! the! normal! distribution in! an! incremental! policy! process! (Kwon,! Choi,! &! Bae, 2013;! Lindblom,! 1959;! Wildavsky,! 1964),! a! policy! under- goes! drastic! change! in! a! leptokurtic7 policy! process, which! is! explained! by! the! aspects! of! disproportionate information! processing8 and! institutional! friction9 (Flink, 2017).! In! addition,! Robinson! et! al.! (2014)! developed! the error-accumulation! model! and! the! institutional! model! of punctuated! policy! change! to! consider! the! history! that! has been! understudied! in! the! development! of! PET! (Flink,! 2017). Moreover,! culture! change! should! follow! punctuations! to establish! and! begin! a! new! cultural! norm! (Fowler! et! al., 2017).

6 Cultural! penetration! is! a! kind! of! mechanism! used! to! explain! policy change;! without! cultural! impact,! it! would! be! difficult! to! cause! policy punctuation! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).

7 This! has! a! trait! of! excess! “peakedness”! (Flink,! 2017;! Robinson,! 2004,! p. 31).! Also,! the! statement! “Comparisons! of! kurtosis! or! the! comparative! fits of! distributions! to! power! law! distributions”! was ! an! early! way! to! infer! PET (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014,! p.! 462).! However,! an! exceptional! volume! of! data! is needed! to! compare! properties! of! the! entire! distribution! (Robinson! et! al., 2014).

8 This! is! explained! by! a! disproportionate! response! to! new! informa- tion! (Jones,! 2001)! and! underreacting! and! overreacting! to! small! and! large changes! (Workman! et! al.,! 2009).! This! matches! the! leptokurtic! distribution (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).

9 This! explains! the! variation! of! leptokurtosis! in! its! reliance! on! the! role (Jones! et! al.,! 2003),! traits,! and! the! context! (Boushey,! 2010)! of! a! policymak- ing! system! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! This! is! because! institutions! reduce! the decision-making! process! to! quickly! prevent! a! rapid! and! comprehensive policy! response! (Jones! et! al.,! 2003).! Organizational! “friction”! implies! trans- action! and! decision! costs! (Jones! et! al.,! 2003;! Robinson! et! al.,! 2007)! owing to ! the! complexity! of! the! process,! including! the! coordination! of! people! and rules! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2007).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 4! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

To! consider! the! role! of! history,10 Robinson! et! al.! (2014) explain! the! error-accumulation! model11 in! terms! of! institu- tional! friction! and! the! built-up! need! for! budgetary! change (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014)! and! the! institutional! model! in! terms of! the! endemic! characteristics! of! an! organization,! thereby supporting! the! latter! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! The! insti- tutional! model! states! that! the! propensity! of! punctuation is! positively! associated! with! the! recent! experience! (Flink, 2017).! This! model! contends! that! the! propensity! of! punctu- ation! is! higher! in! an! organization! that! has! recently! incurred a! punctuating! event! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014),! which! suggests that! endemic! institutional! characteristics! are! predisposed towards! punctuation! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! This! large and! random! change! stems! from! mismanagement! or! inap- propriate! organizational! design! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014). The! punctuation! in! the! institutional! model! is! contagious (Boushey,! 2010).! However,! it! is! difficult! to! find! an! appli- cation! of! this! model! in! many! settings! beyond! the! work! of Robinson! et! al.! (2014).

2.2.! Needs! for! this! study:! why! PET! needs! to! be! applied! in more! diverse! countries

2.2.1.! PET! outside! of! South! Korea PET! has! usually! been! studied! in! Western! settings,! espe-

cially! in! the! United! States.! PET! studies! need! greater! gener- alizability! and! detailed! descriptions! of! punctuation! points. PET! has! been! initiated! and! studied! in! many! countries! (True et! al.,! 2007),! such! as! the! local,! state,! and! federal! govern- ment! levels! in! the! United! States! (Beard,! 2013;! Boushey, 2012;! Breunig! &! Koski,! 2006;! Busenberg,! 1999;! Flink,! 2017; Hegelich,! Fraune,! &! Knollmann,! 2015;! Jordan,! 2003;! Kwon et! al.,! 2013;! Robinson,! 2004;! Robinson,! Caver,! Meier,! & O’Toole,! 2007;! Robinson! et! al.,! 2014;! Shaw,! 2017),! Japan (Yoo,! 2007a),! Indonesia! (Shiffman,! 2003),! Canada! (Pralle, 2003),! the! UK! (John! &! Jennings,! 2010),! England! (John,! 2006), Denmark! (Mortensen,! 2005),! Germany! (Grossman,! 2015), the! Netherlands! (Timmermans! &! Scholten,! 2006),! France (Guiraudon,! 2000),! Belgium! (Maesschalck,! 2002),! and! the EU! nations! (Princen,! 2013;! Sheingate,! 2000).! However, considering! that! culture! is! one! of! the! main! influential! punc- tuation! factors! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017),12 non-Western! PET settings! need! to! be! observed! as! well.! Thus,! PET! must! still

10 Robinson! et! al.! (2014)! measured! the! recency! of! organizations’ experience! of! punctuation! by! investigating! whether! organizations! had experienced! punctuation! within! five! years,! based! on! Sabatier! (1993).

11 The! assumption! of! the! error-accumulation! model! is! that! if! it! were! not for! policy! responses,! the! pressure! for! policy! change! would! increase! until! it reached! a! threshold! where! sufficient! change! could! occur! (Robinson! et! al., 2014).! At! the! threshold! point,! the! policy! system! addresses! the! pressure by! reducing! the! difference! between! level! of! the! demand! and! that! of! the policy! generation! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! The! propensity! of! punctuation is ! negatively! associated! with! the! recent! experience! in! this! model! (Flink, 2017).! Punctuation! occurs! to! remedy! the! subsystem! and! reach! a! desired policy! level! through! incremental! change! (Flink,! 2017).

12 As! long! as! members! in! society! reflect! its! belief! system,! norms,! and! val- ues,! a! societal! culture! experiences! relative! stability! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017). However,! when! focusing! events! change! the! societal! norms! and! values, the ! culture! experiences! a! disruption,! such! as! that! prompted! by! 9/11! (May et! al.,! 2008);! with! predominant! patterns! in! a! given! time! and! space! (Hall, 1993;! March! &! Olsen,! 1989),! the! community’s! culture! changes,! and! cul- tural! penetration! is! achieved! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).

be! tested! in! more! political! systems! with! diverse! character- istics! (Princen,! 2013)! to! enhance! the! level! of! confidence! in its! generalizability.

2.2.2.! PET! in! South! Korea PET! concepts! can! be! applied! to! a! diverse! democratic

society.! A! more! pluralistic! society! with! a! competitive! party system! in! South! Korea! is! also! suitable! for! the! application! of PET! in! contexts! beyond! the! United! States.! Most! PET! studies in! South! Korea! have! been! conducted! by! analyzing! the! over- all! patterns! of! change! in! budgets! (Kim,! 2012;! Yoo,! 2007a, 2007b)! rather! than! by! using! case! studies! (Kim! &! Lee,! 2014). However,! the! PET! studies! still! lack! analyses! that! cover! the entire! PET! process! from! punctuation! to! equilibriums! and stabilities! with! PET! terminologies.

Fowler! et! al.! (2017)! pointed! out! that! scholars! need! to study! the! relevant! culture! in! PET.! Despite! many! PET! stud- ies,! including! those! on! the! environment! (Repetto,! 2006) and! energy! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017;! Grossman,! 2015),! few studies! have! used! the! PET! institutional! model! (Robinson et! al.,! 2014)! and! a! cultural! perspective! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017). To! attain! better! generalizability! of! PET,! it! is! meaningful to! note! the! difference! between! PET! in! the! United! States, which! has! maintained! and! developed! democracy! for! a! long time,! despite! its! short! history,! and! South! Korea,! which! has recently! established! and! developed! democracy,! despite! its long! history.! This! study! applies! the! institutional! model! and traces! the! responses! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.! In! the! end, we! demonstrate! the! different! propensities! when! the! insti- tutional! model! of! the! punctuated! equilibrium! theory! (PET) is! applied! in! a! South! Korean! setting.

2.2.3.! PET! in! disasters After! long! periods! of! stability,! PET! is! a! good! tool

for! explaining! abrupt! and! drastic! changes! in! policy! that follow! a! focusing! event,! such! as! a! disaster.! Disasters require! increased! attention! to! organize! change! and! quickly modify! budgets.! Researchers! studying! disasters! have! also employed! PET.! However,! the! use! of! PET! in! disasters needs! further! consideration! because! these! studies! simply employed! PET! ideas! rather! than! using! PET! terminologies. Arneson,! Deniz,! Javernick-Will,! Liel,! and! Dashti! (2017) show! that! the! influence! of! information! deficits! in! dis- aster! on! post-disaster! community! stakeholders! leads! to the! applicability! of! punctuated! equilibrium! in! the! dis- aster! areas.! Tilcsik! and! Marquis! (2013)! demonstrated how! natural! disasters! as! punctuating! events! impact! cor- porate! philanthropy! in! U.S.! communities! based! on! the idea! of! punctuated! equilibrium.! Shaw! (2017)! suggested that! organizational! changes! reach! institutional! equilib- rium! via! the! examination! of! the! environmental! disaster! as a! case! study! based! on! PET.! Busenberg! (1999)! supported the! role! of! PET! findings! in! natural! disasters! by! applying the! atrophy! of! the! vigilance! hypothesis! to! the! marine! oil trade! in! Alaska.! However,! these! studies! simply! employed the! idea! of! “punctuations”! rather! than! employing! com- prehensive! theoretical! terminologies! and! the! return! to equilibrium.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 5

3.! Research! design! and! method

This! research! is! an! application! of! PET! “theory,”! which was! established! in! the! United! States,! to! a! “case”! in! South Korea,! but! it! is! not! a! comparison! because! it! would! be! diffi- cult! to! find! a! case! similar! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! in other! countries.! We ! tried! to! find! an! anomaly! in! PET! by applying! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.! Furthermore,! few! schol- ars! have! employed! the! institutional! model! of! punctuated policy! change! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! The! “Sewol! Ferry” timeline! included! in! this! study! relates! to! the! core! policy process! that! produced! the! Three! Sewol! Acts13 between April! 2014! and! the! end! of! 2014.! Data! were! collected! from archival! records! on! government! websites! and! through! por- tal! site! keyword! searches.14 The! collection! of! data! was based! on! documents! and! archival! records! following! the chain! of! evidence.15 The! included! events! cover! the! period before! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! until! November! 2014.! It was! difficult! to! observe! the! factors! and! measurements related! to! the! punctuated! policy! change! with! a! regres- sion! approach! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! Therefore;! due! to the! complexity! of! the! circumstances! (Crow,! 2008);! we employed! a! case! study.16 The! changes! that! took! place before! and! after! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! and! until! the passage! of! Three! Sewol! Acts! were! analyzed.! This! study! is only! concerned! with! events! occurring! within! the! national and! geographic! boundary! of! South! Korea.! We ! performed an! analysis! based! on! Yin’s! (2014)! approach! to! examin- ing! theoretical! propositions.17 To! bolster! the! veracity! of the! data! and! our! conclusions;! we! employed! triangulating techniques! throughout! the! analysis.! To! describe! the! theme or! perspective;! triangulation18 typically! corroborates! with

13 Dismantling! the! KCG! and! creating! MPSS! corresponds! to! the! Govern- ment! Organization! Act, ! chasing! Mr. ! Yoo! for! his! corruption! and! embezzling money! corresponds! to! the! Yoo! Byung-eun! Act,! and! revealing! the! causes! of the ! disaster! corresponds! to! the! Sewol! Special! Act.

14 Google,! Naver,! or! Daum! (Naver! and! Daum! are! the! biggest! search engines,! like! Google).! The! keywords! used! were! “Sewol! Ferry.”

15 The! chain! of! evidence! can! bolster! the! reliability! of! information! (Yin, 2014).! The! chain! of! evidence! comprises! “the! links—showing! how! findings come! from! the! data! that! were! collected! and! in! turn! from! the! guidelines in ! the! case! study! protocol! and! from! the! original! research! questions—that strengthen! the! reliability! of! a! case! study’s! research! procedures”! (Yin,! 2014, p. ! 238).

16 Case! studies! (Pralle,! 2003;! Timmermans! &! Scholten,! 2006)! have! com- monly! been! used! for! PET! studies! since! the! early! works! of! Baumgartner and! Jones! (1991,! 1993).

17 Theoretical! propositions! as! a! deductive! approach! are! derived! from theoretical! models! (Cavaye,! 1996)! for! theory! development! (Yin,! 2014).! The theoretical! propositions! are! tested! indirectly,! which! Popper! (1968)! called deductive! theory! testing! (Lee,! 1989).! This! strategy! has! been! suggested! and used! by! many! scholars! (Benbasat! et! al.,! 1987;! Lee,! 1989;! Rogowski! 2010; Yin,! 1980).! Researchers! have! outlined! theoretical! propositions! to! forge! a logical! conclusion! or! prediction! (Cavaye,! 1996).! Theoretical! propositions ask! “why”! and! “how”! to! hypothesize! causal! relations! (Chetty,! 1996,! p. 80).! These! propositions! instruct! researchers! on! how! to! collect! data! and provide! analytic! priorities! (Cavaye,! 1996;! Chetty,! 1996;! Yin,! 2014).! This helps! researchers! to! modify! a! theory! based! on! the! tested! propositions (Cavaye,! 1996).

18 Triangulation! is! one! of! the! strategies! for! establishing! the! veracity of! qualitative! research! conclusions;! following! Creswell! (2013,! p.! 251), this! can! be! conducted! by! using! “multiple! and! different! sources,! methods, investigators,! and! theories! to! provide! corroborating! evidence”! (Ely! et! al., 1991;! Erlandson! et! al.,! 1993;! Glesne! &! Peshkin,! 1992;! Lincoln! &! Guba,

different! sources! and! validates! qualitative! researchers’! data by! triangulating! information! (Creswell,! 2013).! To! bolster reliability;! we! followed! systematic! protocols19 (Yin,! 2014) for! collecting;! assembling;! and! analyzing! the! data.! Addi- tionally;! to! conform! to! PET;! we ! mentioned! the! varying degree! of! kurtosis,20 as! recommended! by! Robinson! et! al. (2014).

3.1.! PET! propositions

Based! on! PET,! this! research! suggests! propositions! in which! PET! either! fits! well! or! does! not.! We! describe! how and! why! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! influenced! policy! pro- cesses! along! with! negative! and! positive! feedback! across venues! and! shaped! the! resulting! policy! based! on! PET.! If PET! fits! South! Korea! well,! then! it! describes! the! change! in organizations,! budgets,! the! media,! and! citizen! attention characterizing! the! emergency! policy! arena.! If! PET! works well! in! describing! the! disaster,! then! we! can! anticipate an! image! of! a! safe! South! Korea! and! a! prominent! policy monopoly,! with! a! lack! of! attention! on! the! policy! before the! disaster.! After! the! image! of! national! safety! collapses, positive! and! negative! feedback! across! venues! originating from! competing! political! interests! after! the! Sewol! Ferry Disaster! could! be! clearly! observed.! In! the! end,! political systems! reach! stability! without! garnering! additional! atten- tion! following! negative! feedback.! If! PET! does! not! accurately describe! the! aftermath! of! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! then! we can! review! evidence! that! has! not! been! presented! by! PET theories! and! studies! in! the! United! States.

1985;! Merriam,! 1988;! Miles! &! Huberman,! 1994;! Patton,! 1980,! 1990).! In describing! the! theme! or! perspective,! triangulation! is! typically! used! to! cor- roborate! different! sources! and! validate! qualitative! researchers’! data! by triangulating! information! (Creswell,! 2013).

19 This! case! study! protocol! helps! keep! the! researcher! focused! on! the! topic of ! the! case! study! and! assists! the! researcher! in! anticipating! some! prob- lems! (Yin,! 2014).! This! protocol! provides! general! guidelines,! a! standardized agenda,! and! a! set! of! steps! for! the! researcher’s! inquiry! (Yin,! 2014).! Some examples! of! the! main! segments! of! our! protocol! are! as! follows:! Data! collec- tion! was! conducted! based! on! documents! and! archival! records! following the! chain! of! evidence.! In! accordance! with! the! research! questions! stated above,! we! addressed! our! empirical! materials! based! on! detailed! questions from! Cairney! and! Heikkila! (2014,! p.! 376)! as! follows:! -Who! are! the! actors who! made! (or! influenced)! the! choice! on! the! agenda?;! -Which! kind! of! role! of institution! as! rules! or! venues! exist! in! decision! making?;! -What! is! the! subsys- tem! (or! network)! in! the! policy! process,! and! how! does! it! work?; ! -How! does the! main! idea! from! each! theory! work! in! this! case?;! -What! is! the! context! of the ! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster?;! -What! is! the! main! event! relating! to! policy! change? How! does! it! trigger! the! policy! change?;! -Are! any! other! relevant! issues! related to ! the! policy! process! following! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster?! In! recognition! of my ! own ! biases! in! filtering! the! meanings! in! the! data! we! collect,! we! were sensitive! about! finding! contrary! evidence! before! drawing! premature! con- clusions! (Yin,! 2014).! In! addition,! we ! employed! our! research! supervisor! to “reality! check”! our! ongoing! conclusions! and! to! entertain! competing! inter- pretations! in! the! analysis.! Many! case! studies! with! chronological! structures tend! to! have! an! imbalance! between! the! introduction! and! the! current! sit- uation! in! the! case! study.! Thus,! to! correct! the! disproportionate! attention, we! designed! the! case! study! using! both! backward! and! forward! sequences of ! events! (Yin,! 2014).

20 Kurtosis! is! a! measure! of! the! distribution! shape! (DeCarlo,! 1997),! which helps! scholars! measure! budget! punctuation! (Breunig! &! Koski,! 2006;! True et ! al.,! 1999).! This! has! two! forms:! platykurtosis,! which! denotes! light! tails and! flatness! in! the! center,! and! leptokurtosis,! which! indicates! fat! tails, sharp! central! peaks,! and! “weak! shoulders”! (Breunig! &! Koski,! 2006,! p.! 372).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 6! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

3.2.! Demonstration! of! punctuated! policy! change:! Google Trends! as! attention! observation

Many! scholars! have! struggled! to! measure! punctuated policy! change! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014)! but! have! devel- oped! alternative! ways! to! measure! it! (Jones! et! al.,! 2003). Based! on! Jones,! Sulkin,! and! Larsen! (2003)! and! Fowler et! al.! (2017),! we! can! categorize! two! ways! to! demon- strate! punctuation:! through! budgets! (public! budgeting! and outlays),! which! have! been! used! frequently,! and! through attention! (word! frequency! in! books! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017), asset! markets,! elections,! media! coverage,! hearings,! cov- erage! of! lawmaking,! and! executive! orders),! which! have been! used! sporadically! in! the! social! sciences.! First,! changes in! budget! (Breunig! &! Koski,! 2006;! Flink,! 2017;! Hegelich, 2017;! Hegelich! et! al.,! 2015;! Kwon! et! al.,! 2013;! Kim,! 2012; Mortensen,! 2005;! Robinson,! 2004;! Robinson! et! al.,! 2007; Robinson! et! al.,! 2014;! Yoo,! 2007a,! 2007b)! are! examined! to observe! the! changes! in! the! policy! process! (Robinson! et! al., 2014).! Budgets! respond! to! endogenous! and! exogenous forces! such! as! bureaucratic! regularity,! subsystem! poli- tics,! public! attention,! innovative! information,! and! changes to! the! decision-making! structures! of! political! institutions (Baumgartner! et! al.,! 2014).! Budgets! can! be! considered! mea- sures! of! issue! importance! and! policy! process! outcomes (Breunig! &! Koski,! 2006;! Goggin! et! al.,! 1990).! Many! PET studies! have! been! conducted! on! the! agenda-based! model of! governmental! budgeting! (Jones! &! Baumgartner! 2005a; Jones! et! al.,! 1998;! Jones! et! al.,! 2003;! Jones! et! al.,! 2009; Robinson! et! al.,! 2014;! True,! 2000)! and! on! changes! in! gov- ernment! expenditure! (Han,! 2012).

An! alternative! means! of! observing! policy! change! is measuring! the! amount! of! attention! received,! although! it is! not! typically! used! without! consensus! except! in! the examination! of! budgets.! Baumgartner! and! Jones! (2009) suggest! that! a! shift! in! attention21 can! create! positive! feed- back.! Many! methods! have! been! used! to! measure! attention, including! those! involving! press! coverage! (Baumgartner et! al.,! 2014),! newspaper! coverage! (John,! 2006),! court! deci- sions! (Kim! &! Lee,! 2014;! Robinson,! 2013;! Wood,! 2006), word! frequency! as! a! measure! of! cultural! penetration! in the! literature! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017),! speeches! (John! & Jennings,! 2010),! and! congressional! hearings! and! presiden- tial! speeches! (Hegelich! et! al.,! 2015).! Fowler! et! al.! (2017) attempted! to! measure! attention! from! “the! written! culture” (p.! 564)! using! Ngram22 to! measure! the! frequency! of! words.

21 Cho! (2009)! redefined! punctuated! disequilibrium! as! a! continuous grievance! and! argued! in! favor! of! a! new! policy! and! a! punctuated! equilib- rium! with! stable! implementation.! This! theory! is! useful! in! understanding how! certain! policy! systems! change! drastically! following! periods! of! relative policy! stability! (Baumgartner! &! Jones,! 1991).

22 “The! American! English! Ngram! Database! was! then! utilized! to! calculate the! annual! cultural! presence! or! frequency! of! each! term”! (Fowler! et! al., 2017,! p.! 564).! Ngram,! a! strong! tool! in! social! science! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017), is ! a! kind! of! database! or! “a! map ! of! the! context! and! frequency! of! words! across history”! (Bohannon,! 2010,! p.! 1600).! Ngram! data! allow! people! to! quantify unquantifiable! concepts! and! enable! a! sophisticated! analysis! of! longitudi- nal! change! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017).! The! Google! Books! Project! has! digitized 15! million! books,! approximately! 12%! of! all! books! published! since! the! first Bible! printed! by! Gutenberg! in! 1450! (Bohannon,! 2010;! Michel! et! al.,! 2011), and! has! been! used! to! measure! cultural! influences! on! individuals! across! the

However,! we ! assumed! that! Ngram! has! a! critical! limitation due! to! the! delay! between! the! time! required! to! publish! a book! and! the! activities! covered.! In! contrast,! Google! Trends23

captures! the! real-time! change! of! cultural! penetration.! It measures! attention! with! query! index24 searches! and! men- tions! on! websites! using! Google! Trends! and! provides! a time-series! index! which! is! normalized! and! customized! by region,! state,! and! metropolitan! area! for! several! countries (Choi! &! Varian,! 2012).! Thus,! this! study! employed! punctu- ated! changes! in! Google! Trends! as! well! as! budgets,! media attention,! and! newspaper! coverage,! to! observe! the! Sewol Ferry! Disaster! and! PET.

4.! Results:! application! of! the! institutional! model! of punctuated! equilibrium! theory

4.1.! Pre-disaster

Since! the! late! 1980s,! South! Korea! has! become! a democratic! and! pluralistic! society! (Lee! &! Glasure,! 2007), pluralistic! society! with! a! multiparty! system! and! many interest! groups! and! is! susceptible! to! small! and! large! punc- tuations! in! policy.! Confucian! culture,! a! key! part! of! Korean culture,! emphasizes! inter-personal! relationships! and! faith- fulness! (Kim,! 2010).! Furthermore,! based! on! Confucianism, Koreans! had! a! tendency! to! consider! the! roles! of! King,! father, and! teacher! as! one! (! ),! meaning! that! the! King,! or president,! is! still! imbued! with! powerful,! although! modestly diminished,! status! (Cho,! 2017).! Before! its! democratization in! 1987,25 Korea’s! authoritarian! government! had! facilitated citizens’! distrust! in! the! government! by! suppressing! their opinions! and! rights! despite! their! contribution! to! the! rapid development! of! the! Korean! economy.! This! still! remains! and continues.

Due! to! a! well-developed! news! media,! small! issues! are now! able! to! quickly! spread! to! the! public! with! unprece- dented! speed.! Elected! officials! attempt! to! reflect! the opinion! of! their! constituents! but! tend! to! redirect! blame! or resolve! problems! to! get! reelected.! Strategies! for! redirect-

centuries! and! the! patterns! of! historians’! attention! (Bohannon,! 2010).! This field! was! named! “culturomics”! (Bohannon,! 2010,! p.! 1600;! Michel! et! al., 2011,! p.! 1).

23 Google! Trends! are! “A! time! series! index! of! the! volume! of! queries! users enter! into! Google! in! a! given! geographic! area”! (Choi! &! Varian,! 2012,! p. 3).! Thus,! this! study! reveals! a! change! in! the! attention! of! “the! written! cul- ture”! (Fowler! et! al.,! 2017)! via! Google! Trends,! which! is! useful! in! predicting phenomena! (Matias! et! al.,! 2009).! However,! the! results! may ! vary! slightly, depending! on! the! day! (Choi! &! Varian,! 2012).! Google! Trends! provides! data from! 2004! (Google! Trends,! 2018;! Leonhardt,! 2006).

24 “The! query! index! is! based! on! query! share:! the! total! query! volume! for the! search! term! in! question”! (Choi! &! Varian,! 2012,! p.! 2).

25 Furthermore,! Korea’s! top-down! bureaucratic! system! was! estab- lished! and! centralized! over! a! thousand! years! ago.! Although! some anti-authoritarian! government! riots! or! movements! have! taken! place,! the status! of! the! president! is! stronger! than! that! of! the! president! in! the! U.S. Thus,! citizens’! dependency! on! –! and! even! blame! of! –! the! central! govern- ment! are! deeply! rooted! historically! and! culturally,! and! this! is! reflected! in the! ways! that! Korea! confronts! problems! and! disasters.! Based! on! this! his- tory, ! politics,! and! culture,! Korean! citizens! tend! to! seek! solutions! from! the central! government! whenever! they! confront! problematic! situations.! Thus, the! NPOs! tend! to! depend! on! the! government! rather! than! partnerships (Park,! 1999).In! response,! the! central! government! reacts! to! the! pressure and! makes! an! effort! to! resolve! each! problem.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 7

Fig.! 1.! The! Number! of! Newspaper! Editorials27 per! Week! (Liberal! vs.! Conservative).

ing! blame! in! South! Korea! include! small-! and! medium-scale or! one-time,! short-term! policy! changes,! such! as! forcing the! prime! minister! to! resign,26 reorganizing! or! creating new! government! agencies,! increasing! budgets,! and! cre- ating! special! acts.! The! South! Korean! government! and! its citizens! are! accustomed! to! experiencing! punctuated! pol- icy! changes,! not! only! within! five! years! but! also! prior! to that.! Usually,! only! a! small! number! of! bureaucrats! and! politi- cians! care! about! disaster-related! issues! and! citizens! remain unconcerned.! The! national! government! established! the National! Emergency! Management! Agency! (NEMA)! under the! Ministry! of! Government! Administration! and! Home Affairs! in! 2004.! The! Hebei! Spirit! Oil! Spill! accident! occurred on! December! 7,! 2007,! when! a! crude! carrier,! Hebei! Spirit, spilled! oil! following! a! collision! at! sea! with! a! crane.! To deal! with! this! accident,! a! “Special! Act! enacted! for! the Hebei! Spirit! oil! spill! incident”! (Doopedia,! 2016)! was! enacted into! law! as! a! tool! to! deal! with! a! specific! visible! dis- aster! by! providing! monetary! compensation! for! damage caused! by! the! pollution! (Moon,! 2008).! When! President! Park started! her! administration! in! March! 2013,! her! administra- tion! created! and! reorganized! the! Ministry! of! Security! and Public! Administration! (MOSPA).! By! placing! “security”! at the! beginning! of! the! agency’s! name,! President! Park! sug- gested! that! the! government! was! committed! to! the! safety of! South! Korean! citizens! (Chae,! 2014a).! The! Korean! Coast Guard! (KCG)! which! is! under! the! Ministry! of! Oceans! and Fisheries,! was! evaluated! as! a! superior! disaster! agency! (Lee, 2015)! right! before! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.! The! regime tried! to! convince! citizens! of! its! positive! status! of! agencies that! protect! the! people.! Furthermore,! the! government! had

26 Because! it! is! not! easy! for! a! president! to! resign! during! his! or! her! term, the! prime! minister,! as! the! second! chief! of! the! executive! branch,! tends! to resign! instead.

27 Usually,! there! are! three! editorials! per! day.! The! data! indicate! the! num- ber ! of! editorials! that! mentioned! “Sewol! Ferry”! more! than! once! in! their editorials.

already! anticipated! and! planned! a! reduction! in! the! disaster- related! budget! in! 2014! according! to! the! 2013! estimation (Choi,! 2014).! This! reflects! a! general! lack! of! government concern! over! disasters.

4.2.! Post-disaster:! institutional! change

The! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! altered! the! public’s! attention and! spurred! policy! changes.! The! government’s! poorly- performed! rescue! operations! led! to! requests! from! citizens to! establish! new! policies! and! an! increase! in! the! public’s attention! to! disaster! prevention! and! response.! Most! vic- tims! were! students! from! Danwon-gu,! a! poor! area! in! Ansan in! the! Gyeonggi! Province.! News! media! and! political! groups drew! attention! to! and! critiqued! the! government’s! response to! the! disaster.! News! via! the! Internet! and! social! media! also played! a! significant! role! in! this! regard.! Figs.! 1! and! 2! reveal a! clear! trend! line! of! domestic! and! international! atten- tion! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! in! which! the! disaster! increased grievances! and! stimulated! arguments! for! a! new! policy.! As shown! in! Fig.! 3,! the! analysis! results,! using! longitudinal! sur- vey! data! collected! between! January! and! August! 2014! (i.e., respectively! four! months! before! and! after! the! Sewol! Ferry Disaster)! show! that! citizens’! risk! perception! was! dramati- cally! increased! from! 50.79! to! 56.22! out! of! a! total! possible score! of! 100.

4.2.0.! Image! and! venue! of! the! Sewol! Ferry! disaster Due! to! the! images! of! student! victims! and! the! capsized

Sewol! Ferry! which! were! the! result! of! a! poorly! perform- ing! government,! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! drew! attention from! citizens! and! shifted! the! issue! from! a! policy! sub- system! of! the! marine! industry! and! government! to! the macro-political! area.! Unlike! the! previous! policy! changes that! had! resulted! from! disaster! experiences,! the! Sewol Ferry! Disaster! resulted! in! vast! policy! changes,! allowing many! stakeholders! to! participate! and! fostering! the! collapse of! an! image.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 8! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Fig.! 2.! Google! Trends! for! “Sewol! Ferry”! Searches.

Fig.! 3.! Changes! in! Citizens’! Risk! Perception! before! and! after! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.

Regarding! venues,! the! impact! of! the! Sewol! Ferry! Dis- aster! was! contagious,! not! only! for! the! stakeholders! in the! subsystem! that! were! directly! involved! in! the! acci- dent! but! also! for! the! national! culture! in! a! macro-political setting.! For! instance,! ruling! and! opposing! party! politi- cians! drafted! more! than! 253! bills! (Jung,! 2015).28 Due! to the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! the! national! mood! became! so depressed! that! people! and! government! employees! cut! back their! spending! on! consumption! of! leisure! and! recreation, apparently! as! a! grieving! response! to! the! deceased! students and! victims.! Public! agencies! and! even! private! companies tended! to! curtail,! cancel,! or! postpone! their! ceremonies.

28 After! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! politicians! drafted! more! than! 253 bills.! These! bills! were! incorporated! into! 11! acts! concerning! topics! such as ! school! safety,! the! marine! industry,! train! transportation,! and! govern- ment! employee! ethical! codes.! However,! some! of! these! represented! the activities! of! attention-seeking! representatives.! Ultimately,! 156! overlap- ping! bills! were! discarded,! and! 86! bills! remained! as! of! April! 16,! 2015! (Jung, 2015).

Similarly,! many! high! schools! canceled! or! postponed! their school! excursions.! The! Korea! Institute! of! Finance! pre- dicted! that! the! growth! rate! decreased! by! 0.1%,! reflecting condolences! toward! the! Sewol! victims! (Lee,! 2014;! Oh, 2014).

Consequently,! the! image! of! a! safe! South! Korea! was no! longer! held! by! the! majority! of! the! population.! Pol- icy! monopolies! collapsed.! The! capsized! Sewol! Ferry! and reported! failures! of! the! KCG! countered! the! prevailing images! of! safety,! such! as! the! MOSPA! and! the! previously well-regarded! KCG.! As! the! disaster! response! crawled! for- ward,! an! increasing! number! of! citizens! demanded! an improved! safety! and! disaster! policy.! Most! media! outlets dedicated! time! to! broadcasting! the! disaster! and! presented allegations! of! corruption! between! the! marine! industry and! bureaucrats! in! the! process.! Bolstered! by! the! opposing party,! citizens! asked! the! ruling! regime! to! build! a! system to! prevent! similar! disasters.! A! few! members! of! the! radical populace! even! asked! for! the! impeachment! of! the! president (Lee! et! al.,! 2014).! These! responses! exemplify! how! exter-

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 9

Fig.! 4.! Change! in! Budget! for! Public! Order! and! Safety.

nal! events! disrupt! political! systems! and! cause! punctuated equilibrium.! Public! concern! fueled! changes! at! all! levels! of policymaking! and! budgeting! because! the! entire! social! and political! system! was! forced! to! respond! to! the! event.! This required! the! government! to! admit! their! poorly-performed rescue! operations! (Park,! 2014)! and! to! act! to! resolve! prob- lems! and! improve! its! performance.! Furthermore,! many! civil society! organizations! and! the! families! of! victims! raised this! issue! and! found! support! in! the! opposing! party,! facil- itating! policy! change! in! the! form! of! positive! feedback. Conflicts! continued! between! political! parties! regarding! the creation! of! the! Sewol! Special! Act.! The! following! sequence! of accustomed! events! were! implemented:! forcing! the! prime minister! to! resign,! reorganizing! or! creating! new! govern- ment! agencies,! increasing! budgets,! and! creating! special acts.

4.2.1.! Prime! Minister! Chung! resigns! and! chasing! Mr.! Yoo: from! negative! to! positive! feedback

The! ruling! regime! attempted! to! find! a! person! responsi- ble! for! the! accident! to! avoid! blame! using! the! resignation! of Prime! Minister! Chung! on! April! 27,! 2014.! Many! criticized the! regime! and! queried! whether! the! next! prime! minis- ter! had! the! capacity! and! ethical! prerequisites! required! for the! role.! Prime! Minister! Chung! responded! to! these! accusa- tions! by! resigning! three! weeks! after! the! disaster.! President Park! searched! for! an! alternative! prime! minister.! Both! Mr. Ahn,! the! first! alternative,! and! Mr. ! Moon,! the! second! alterna- tive,! were! criticized! by! their! constituents! and! the! media.29

Thus,! neither! of! the! regime’s! candidates! were! appointed, which! increased! the! distrust! in! the! regime.! Consequently, interest! groups,! the! news! media,! and! many! citizens! crit- icized! the! regime.! Ultimately,! Prime! Minister! Chung! was reassigned! to! his! former! position! and! reinstated! on! June 26,! 2014.! As! such,! the! regional! accident! moved! into! the national! political! arena.! However,! the! resignation! of! Prime Minister! Chung,! resulting! from! regimes’! discouragement

29 It! was! alleged! that! Mr. ! Ahn! was ! overpaid! (Chae,! 2014c)! after! leav- ing ! his! official! job! as! a! Supreme! Court! judge! and! was ! considered! corrupt among! Korean! citizens! and! the! media.! Meanwhile,! Mr. ! Moon! sabotaged his! own! appointment! by! making! overly! religious! statements! during! his speech! at! a! service.! He! said,! in! the! name! of! Jesus,! Korea! deserved! to be ! colonized! by! Japan! to! remedy! Korea’s! ignorance! and! laziness! (Chae, 2014b).

of! change! (negative! feedback),! was! converted! to! positive feedback! dynamics.

Meanwhile,! President! Park! requested! the! arrest! of! the ferry’s! owner,! Mr. ! Yoo! Byung-eun.! Before! the! accident,! Yoo Byung-eun! had! arranged! for! the! ferry! to! be! remodeled, and! this! presumably! contributed! to! the! overloading! that sunk! the! ship.! The! government! also! needed! to! reimburse the! costs! of! the! rescue! mission! and! sought! to! collect! the costs! from! Mr. ! Yoo.! Police! and! other! people! had! tried! to find! him! through! a! national! search,! but! Yoo! was ! found dead! (Kim,! 2014).! In! the! end,! chasing! Mr. ! Yoo! backfired.! As such,! a! conversion! to! positive! feedback! for! policy! change transpired.

4.2.2.! Dismantling! KCG:! positive! feedback President! Park! announced! that! the! KCG! would! be! dis-

mantled.! The! KCG! was! not! successful! in! rescuing! the victims.! There! were! many! accusations! leveled! at! the! KCG. On! May ! 19,! 2014,! six! weeks! after! the! disaster,! amid! the public! denunciation! of! the! KCG,! President! Park! announced that! she! would! dismantle! the! KCG! and! create! a! new! Min- istry! of! Public! Safety! and! Security! (MPSS),! which! merged part! of! the! KCG! and! the! NEMA! (Chairman! of! the! Security and! Public! Administration! Committee,! 2014).30 The! gov- ernment’s! intention! to! facilitate! change! by! dismantling! and reorganizing! the! KCG! can! be! seen! as! an! example! of! positive feedback! because! it! helped! expedite! change! and! stabilize the! equilibrium.

4.2.3.! Creation! of! the! commission! for! national investigation! of! the! Sewol! Ferry:! positive! feedback

On! May ! 29,! 2014,! one! week! before! the! local! elections, the! ruling! and! opposing! parties! decided! to! create! a! com- mission! to! investigate! the! cause! of! the! disaster! (Park! et! al., 2014).! The! ruling! party! politicians! accepted! the! change and! agreed! to! create! a! special! commission! for! a! national investigation! to! investigate! the! cause! of! the! disaster.! This can! be! seen! as! another! example! of! positive! feedback,! as! it prompted! an! investigation! of! the! cause! of! the! disaster! and facilitated! change.

30 Owever,! some! critics! suggested! that! the! dismantling! of! the! KGC! and the ! creation! of! the! MPSS! would! not! be! successful! because! it! did! not! fix any! of! the! fundamental! problems! that! led! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 10! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

4.2.4.! Increasing! budget! and! creating! other! acts:! positive feedback

The! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! stimulated! changes! in! public policy! and! disaster-related! budgets! as! other! major! shifts spread! throughout! the! entire! social! and! political! system (Baumgartner! et! al.,! 2014).! Multiple! national! and! local autonomous! government! bodies! increased! their! safety- related! budgets! after! the! disaster! (Baek,! 2016;! MPSS,! 2015). For! example,! at! the! national! level,! after! the! 2014! Sewol Ferry! Disaster,! the! budget! for! public! order! and! safety! saw its! largest! increase! in! seven! years! at! 7.583%! (See! Fig.! 4). This! was! the! largest! increase! in! the! budget! for! public! order and! safety! since! 2008,! with! the! exception! of! the! public order! budget;! the! portions! of! the! budget! focused! on! safety saw! an! increase! of! 17.9%! in! September! 2014.! Consider- ing! that! the! disaster-related! budget! was! targeted! for! a decrease! before! the! disaster! (Choi,! 2014),! this! means! that there! was! a! large! disruption! in! the! safety! budget! after! the Sewol! Ferry! disaster.31 This! punctuation! was! contagious, and! many! other! governments! increased! budgets! relating! to safety! issues.! At! the! local! level,! the! safety! budget! of! the! local government! of! education! was! increased! in! July! 2014! (Baek, 2016).! The! Ministry! of! Oceans! and! Fisheries! increased! their budget! in! December! 2014.! These! actions! proved! that! abrupt changes! were! made! at! multiple! levels! of! government! pol- icy,! including! the! 230! safety,! marine,! and! ship-relevant acts! proposed! by! representatives! (Cho,! 2015).! These! bud- get! increases! and! the! growing! number! of! laws! in! multiple government! bodies! and! venues! can! be! seen! as! a! form! of positive! feedback.

4.2.5.! Three! Sewol! Acts:! positive! feedback Of! the! many! acts! created! because! of! the! Sewol! Ferry

event,! the! Three! Sewol! Acts! were! the! most! highlighted! and controversial! acts.! After! the! accident,! more! stakeholders and! people! became! involved! in! policy! issues;! the! domi- nant! coalition! could! not! maintain! control! and! new! actors pushed! the! issue! to! the! macro-political! stage.! Until! the! end of! September! 2014,! there! were! long! debates! about! how to! establish! a! special! investigation! commission! among! the ruling! party,! the! opposing! party,! various! interest! groups, and! the! progressive! populace.! After! the! end! of! September 2014,! both! parties! began! negotiating! the! legal! issues! of! the other! two! acts’! (the! Government! Organization! Act! and! the Yoo! Byung-eun! Act)! as! well.! The! ruling! party! suggested! that the! opposing! party! bind! the! three! bills! (Kim! et! al.,! 2014). The! ruling! and! opposing! parties! started! a! task! force! to! pass the! three! bills! together! because! they! were! all! related! to! the ferry! disaster.

After! long! and! tedious! debates! about! the! Sewol! Spe- cial! Act,32 the! Government! Organization! Act,! and! the! Yoo Byung-eun! Act,! both! the! ruling! and! opposing! party! compro-

31 This! represented! a! substantial! punctuation! in! the! safety! budget. Compared! with! the! thresholds! suggested! in! previous! studies,! such! as Wildavsky’s! (1984)! criterion! of! 10%! and! Kemp’s! (1982)! criterion! of! ±10%, this! 17.9%! increase! can! be! seen! as! a! punctuated! condition.

32 This! act! confirmed! the! establishment! of! the! Special! Investigation! Com- mission! on! the! 4/16! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! for! one! year,! with! 17! members, including! five! standing! members! who! could! extend! their! activity! for! six months! (Cho,! 2014).

mised! by! naming! the! acts! considered! together! as! the! Three Sewol! Acts! on! October! 31.! The! National! Assembly! passed the! Three! Sewol! Acts! on! November! 7,! 2014.! After! 19! days, the! acts! were! announced! by! the! president.! As! shown! in Figs.! 1! and! 2,! after! the! Three! Sewol! Acts,! fewer! arguments about! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! appeared! in! newspaper! out- lets.! This! can! be! seen! as! positive! feedback! because! the! Three Sewol! Acts! were! passed! and! led! to! policy! changes! that! were a! response! to! continuous! grievances,! which! resulted! in! a new! policy! of! punctuated! disequilibrium.

4.2.6.! End! of! the! retrieving! bodies! mission! and establishing! MPSS:! negative! feedback

Negative! feedback! was! reestablished! after! the! coun- try! had! reached! a! saturation! point! (Baumgartner! &! Jones, 1993).! After! passing! the! Three! Sewol! Acts,! the! national! gov- ernment! concluded! rescue! operations! on! November! 11, 2014,! and! created! the! new! MPSS! (Ha,! 2016).! The! MPSS! was a! merger! of! the! NEMA! and! KCG,! which! took! place! the! fol- lowing! week! on! November! 19.! This! provided! a! new! image of! policy! stability! for! the! government! to! present! to! the! peo- ple.! Passing! the! Three! Sewol! Acts! and! finishing! the! recovery mission! took! on! the! effect! of! negative,! deviation-reducing feedback.

4.2.7.! After! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster After! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! and! upon! reaching! stabil-

ity,! the! Koreans! overcame! their! experience! with! disruption and! established! a! new! safety! culture! that! spread! to! the emergency! management! system! and! other! institutions (Chae,! 2017b).! Due! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! people’s trust! in! the! government! decreased.! For! instance,! people! did not! follow! the! announcement! to! stay! on! but! move! out! of the! subway! after! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! because! a! large number! of! students! died! following! the! crew’s! announce- ment! to! stay! on! the! ship! during! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster (Shin,! 2014).! Since! then,! although! the! impact! of! the! issue has! lessened,! more! emphasis! and! interest! have! been! placed on! safety! issues! and! the! support! of! a! safety! culture,! even though! more! people! distrust! the! government! due! to! its poor! performance.! The! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! shattered! the image! of! a! crisis-free! Korea,! which! led! to! policy! venue! shifts that! were! reflected! in! politics! on! the! national! level.! Fur- thermore,! while! implementing! the! Sewol! Special! Act! and investigating! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! the! following! issues emerged! with! incremental! changes! that! were! made.

4.3.! Discussion:! implications! of! PET

The! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! is! a! good! case! for! observing! the generalizability! of! PET! in! countries! outside! of! the! United States.! Applying! PET! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! renders! a description! of! the! Sewol! accident! viable.! A! comparison! of the! expected! outcome! of! the! theoretical! proposition! and what! was ! observed! yields! a! suggestion! for! modifying! PET, as! Cavaye! (1996)! argued.! We ! suggest! that! there! is! gener- ally! less! negative! feedback! to! retain! system! stability.! As! Cho (2009)! stated,! unlike! in! the! United! States,! ongoing! debates about! the! ferry! still! exist! four! years! after! the! disaster! in South! Korea.! However,! the! debates! are! also! related! to! the implementation! of! the! Sewol! Special! Act.! Unlike! Hurri-

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 11

Fig.! 5.! Comparison! of! Google! Trends! regarding! “Sewol! Ferry,”! “Hurricane! Katrina,”33 and! “Hurricane! Sandy”! Searches.34

Table! 2 Normality! Tests! of! Event! Attention! Data! from! Google! Trends.

Events! Kurtosis! Pr(Skewness)! Pr(Kurtosis)! Shapiro-Wilk! test! p! <

Sewol! Ferry! 36.501! 0.000! 0.000! 0.378! 0.000 2007 ! South! Korea! Oil! Spill! 21.237! 0.000! 0.000! 0.592! 0.000 BP ! Oil! Spill! 27.402! 0.000! 0.000! 0.318! 0.000 Costa ! Concordia! 43.951! 0.000! 0.000! 0.261! 0.000 Hurricane! Katrina! 38.563! 0.000! 0.000! 0.284! 0.000 Hurricane! Sandy 49.375! 0.000! 0.000! 0.229! 0.000 Bridge ! Collapse! Minnesota! 56.321! 0.000! 0.000! 0.169! 0.000

We! transformed! the! <! 1! values! from! Google! Trends! into! 0.99.! The! Shapiro-Wilk! test! is! one! of! the! powerful! tests! to! assess! normality! distribution! (Breunig & ! Koski,! 2006).

cane! Katrina! and! Hurricane! Sandy! in! the! United! States,! the Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! required! more! time! to! reach! stability in! South! Korea! (See! Fig.! 5).

If! we! tried! to! compare! a! case! between! a! Western! event and! the! Sewol! Ferry,! the! events! would! not! fully! match and! would! be! impossible! to! compare.! Therefore,! in! addi- tion! to! Hurricane! Katrina! and! Hurricane! Sandy! in! Fig.! 5, we! compared! other! disasters! (including! natural! and! man- made! disasters)! for! better! consistency.! Fig.! 6! shows! that! the Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! required! more! time! to! reach! stability compared! to! a! similar! accidental! marine! disaster! involv- ing! the! Costa! Concordia35 and! a! disaster! involving! a! bridge, the! Minnesota! Bridge! Collapse.36 To! compare! similar! cases, even! though! they! were! not! the! same! as! a! ferry! disaster,! the South! Korean! Oil! Spill! case! in! 2007! (Fig.! 7)! showed! that

33 We! compared! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster! with! “Hurricane! Katrina”! and “Hurricane! Sandy”! using! Google! Trends! because! the! impact! and! influence of! the! events! (Sewol! Ferry,! Hurricane! Katrina,! and! Hurricane! Sandy)! are comparable.

34 The! data! were! retrieved! and! collected! from! Google! Trends! on December,! 15,! 2017.

35 The! Costa! Concordia! disaster! happened! on! January! 13,! 2012,! resulting in! 32! deaths! and! 64! serious! injuries.! The! Costa! Concordia! cruise! ship! came too! far! inland! and! wrecked! due! to! human! error! that! involved! a! lack! of alertness! and! compliance! failure! (BBC,! 2015;! Safety4Sea,! 2018).

36 The! Minnesota! Bridge! Collapse! happened! on! August! 1,! 2007,! without warning! during! the! evening! rush! hour,! causing! the! deaths! of! 13! people and! 145! injuries! (Karnowski,! 2017;! Klobuchar,! 2017).

it! took! more! time! to! achieve! stability! than! the! Deepwater Horizon! Oil! Spill.37 As! we! can! see! in! the! above! figures,38

compared! to! the! red! line,! which! tracks! South! Korean! atten- tion,! the! other! lines! show! that! the! other! events! took! more time! to! regain! stability.

As! institutional! characteristics! are! significant! factors in! the! punctuation! process! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014),! coun- tries! with! more! stable! political! and! economic! institutions might! be! able! to! bounce! back! faster.! The! political! system in! the! United! States! has! many! longstanding! stakeholders that! facilitate! the! rapid! spread! of! policy,! even! if! they! some- times! prevent! change.! Vested! interests! in! South! Korea! are not! as! stable! as! those! in! the! United! States! because! the U.S.! political! system! has! many! longstanding! stakeholders (vested! power,! policy! subsystems,! etc.),! which! could! be a! barrier! to! initiating! new! changes! but! could! also! facili- tate! fast! policy! spread! (Cho,! 2009).! For! instance,! although the! Korean! government! announced! the! presumed! causes of! the! disaster,! some! citizens! did! not! trust! their! reports. An! anonymous! source! on! the! Internet! using! the! alias! Zaro declared! a! submarine! collision! to! be! the! cause! of! the! dis-

37 The! Deepwater! Horizon! oil! spill! of! 2010,! also! named! the! Gulf! of! Mexico Oil ! Spill! of! 2010,! killed! 11! and! injured! 17! workers! (Pallardy,! 2018).! This was! the! petroleum! industry’s! largest! oil! spill! in! a! marine! environment, which! leaked! 4,900,000! barrels! of! oil! (Czartoryski,! 2011;! Pallardy,! 2018).

38 All! the! aforementioned! events! show! a! leptokurtic! distribution! of attention! (See! Table! 2).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 12! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Fig.! 6.! Comparison! of! Google! Trends! Regarding! Searches! for! the! “Sewol Ferry”! versus! “Hurricane! Katrina,”! “Costa! Concordia,”! and! the! “Bridge! Col- lapse! in! Minnesota”.! (The! data! were! retrieved! and! collected! from! Google Trends! on! July,! 27,! 2018.)

Fig.! 7.! Comparison! of! Google! Trends! Regarding! Searches! for! the! “South Korea! Oil! Spill”! versus! the! “Deepwater! Horizon! Oil! Spill”.! (The! data! were retrieved! and! collected! from! Google! Trends! on! July,! 27,! 2018.)

aster.! This! contradicted! the! official! explanations,! such! as overloading,! incorrect! freight! binding,! the! ship’s! decreased restoration! force,! and! mistakes! in! steering.! Zaro! appeared! in the! form! of! a! documentary! (Chae,! 2017a).! Many! unproven Internet! rumors! were! circulated! about! the! sunken! ship. Even! excluding! the! factors! that! caused! the! Sewol! Ferry! to sink,! some! citizens! still! raise! issues! about! the! government’s weak! implementation! of! the! Sewol! Special! Act! and! ques- tion! the! cause! of! the! disaster.! Although! they! did! not! attract as! much! attention! as! events! immediately! after! the! Sewol

Ferry! Disaster,! concerns! about! the! implementation! of! the Three! Sewol! Acts! continued! even! after! the! acts! were! passed. These! ideas! that! emerged! from! the! tested! propositions! can be! used! to! modify! the! original! theory! following! the! case study! findings! (Cavaye,! 1996)! and! should! affect! the! results of! future! studies.! Ultimately,! this! new! anomaly! of! insta- bility! in! the! PET! should! be! examined! more! thoroughly! in future! studies.

5.! Conclusion

Using! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! the! PET! institutional model! was ! applied! in! South! Korea.! We ! illustrated! how! a political! system! reacts! and! changes! policy! and! simulta- neously! demonstrated! how! the! disaster! led! to! the! Three Sewol! Acts.! The! ferry! disaster! led! to! substantial! changes! in safety! culture! related! to! public! policy! and! disaster-related budgets! and! organizations! in! South! Korea.! Furthermore, by! employing! Google! Trends,! and! data! related! to! bud- gets! and! newspaper! attention,! we! contributed! to! helping other! researchers! visualize! punctuation.! Ultimately,! we illustrated! the! deviation! of! the! Korean! context,! which! is characterized! by! fewer! instances! of! negative! feedback! than were! found! than! was ! revealed! in! the! US! based! on! the original! PET! model.! However,! this! does! not! reduce! PET’s applicability! to! the! South! Korean! situation.

In! summary,! the! policy! monopoly! of! incremental change,! which! was ! widely! accepted! as! a! supportive! image for! safety,! collapsed! after! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.! The South! Korea! political! system! had! experienced! a! punctuat- ing! event.! Before! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! few! actors! in! the policy! monopoly! were! concerned! about! the! marine! indus- try! and! safety! issues.! However,! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster, which! fostered! an! image! of! a! poorly-performing! govern- ment,! allowed! the! policy! monopoly! to! collapse! and! fostered the! shift! of! a! subsystem! problem! to! a! macro-political! envi- ronment,! followed! by! contagious! positive! feedback! across multiple! venues.! After! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster,! the! rul- ing! party! tried! to! suppress! the! policy! change! with! negative feedback! (e.g.,! through! the! resignation! of! the! prime! min- ister! and! by! chasing! Mr. ! Yoo),! but! this! changed! to! positive feedback.! Following! the! dismantling! of! the! KCG,! the! cre- ation! of! the! commission! for! national! investigation,! the budget! increase,! and! other! acts,! the! debate! between! the ruling! and! opposing! party! increased! attention! to! possi- ble! policy! changes! and! resulted! in! the! passage! of! the Three! Sewol! Acts.! Then,! the! South! Korean! political! sys- tem! again! reached! stability.! After! passing! the! Three! Sewol Acts,! ending! the! mission,! and! establishing! MPSS,! the! need for! change! was ! perceived! as! less! urgent,! but! was! not completely! ameliorated.! This! change! appeared! like! that predicted! by! the! institutional! model! of! punctuated! pol- icy! change:! endemic! and! random! change! occurring! from mismanagement! and! contagious! punctuation! and! multi- ple! venues! (Robinson! et! al.,! 2014).! In! the! end,! the! Sewol Ferry! Disaster! transformed! the! relevant! culture! on! safety (Chae,! 2017b).! Furthermore,! a! finding! of! this! study! is! that a! modification! of! PET! punctuation! takes! more! time! to reach! stabilization! in! the! South! Korean! context! due! to! less negative! feedback.! This! finding! could! be! applied! to! other societies! or! situations! (Fig.! 8).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 13

Fig.! 8.! Diagram! of! the! Institutional! Model! of! Punctuated! Equilibrium! Theory! as! it! Relates! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster.

Despite! the! implications,! this! study! has! limitations.! It is! difficult! to! objectively! distinguish! whether! specific! sys- tem! feedback! dynamics! amplify! or! reduce! deviation! and change! when! confronting! political! debate! following! a! dis- aster.! Thus,! a! future! study! could! be! conducted! utilizing! a sentiment! analysis! of! media! that! might! provide! some! evi- dence! regarding! the! ways! a! political! system! responds! to different! forms! of! feedback! (Cho,! 2017),! but! doing! so! is beyond! the! scope! of! the! present! study.

Ultimately,! this! study! cannot! guarantee! the! generaliz- ability! of! its! findings.! Thus,! future! researchers! could! also apply! this! institutional! model! for! the! study! of! punctuated policy! change! to! other! countries! and! analyze! how! and! why negative! and! positive! feedback! is! generated! by! a! given country’s! efforts! to! stabilize.! Using! Google! Trends,! schol- ars! can! determine! why! and! how! people’s! attention! varies before! and! after! a! particular! punctuation! event,! depend- ing! on! the! situation! and! cultural! context.! A! future! study could! differentiate! how! much! time! is! required! to! stabi- lize! an! issue! following! a! focusing! event! as! well! as! the extent! of! the! changes,! depending! on! the! setting.! Finally, we! hope! future! researchers! will! investigate! the! possibility of! the! time! at! which! punctuation! occurs! (Robinson! et! al., 2007).

Acknowledgments

We ! appreciate! the! anonymous! reviewers! who! offered us! valuable! comments! during! the! process! of! completing this! article.! We! also! would! like! to! express! our! gratitude to! professors! Ralph! Brower,! Keon-Hyung! Lee,! and! Frances Berry! at! the! Florida! State! University! as! well! as! our! friends professor! Misun! Song! at! the! Valdosta! State! Uviversity,! Dr. Suk! Joon! Hwang,! and! Gook! Jin! Kim! who ! provided! advise and! guidance! for! this! article.! We ! also! appreciate! the! sup- port! from! Brain! Korea! 21! Plus! in! the! Department! of! Public Administration! at! the! Korea! University.! After! the! accep- tance,! this! article! was! presented! at! the! Winter! Conference of! the! 2019! the! Korean! Association! for! the! Immigration! Pol- icy! and! Administration.! This! study! is! developed! from! the doctoral! dissertation! of! the! first! author,! Ki! Woong! Cho! (Cho, 2017).

References

Arneson,! E.,! Deniz,! D.,! Javernick-Will,! A.,! Liel,! A.,! &! Dashti, S. ! (2017).! Information! deficits! and! community! disaster resilience.! Natural! Hazards! Review,! 18(4)! http://dx.doi.org/10. 1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000251

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000251

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 14! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Baek,! Y.! M. ! (2016).! Local! government! of! education! budget increase! safety! budget..! http://www.newsis.com/ar! detail/ view.html?ar id=NISX20160321! 0013971411

Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! &! Jones,! B.! D.! (1991).! Agenda! dynamics! and! policy subsystems.! The! Journal! of! Politics,! 53(4),! 1044–1074.

Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! &! Jones,! B.! D.! (1993).! Agendas! and! instability! in! American politics. ! Chicago:! University! of! Chicago! Press.

Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! &! Jones,! B.! D.! (2009).! Agendas! and! instability! in! American politics. ! Chicago,! IL:! University! of! Chicago! Press.

Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Mortensen,! P.! B.! (2014).! Punctuated equilibrium! theory:! Explaining! stability! and! change! in! public! poli- cymaking.! In! P.! A.! Sabatier,! &! C.! M. ! Weible! (Eds.),! Theories! of! the! Policy Process! (pp.! 59–103).! Boulder:! Westview! Press.

BBC.! (2015).! Costa! Concordia:! What! happened..! https://www. bbc.com/news/world-europe-16563562

Beard,! V.! (2013).! A! theoretical! understanding! of! housing! and! homeless- ness:! Federal! homelessness! and! housing! policy! through! the! lenses! of punctuated! equilibrium! theory! and! advocacy! coalition! frameworks. Poverty! &! Public! Policy, ! 5(1),! 67–87.

Benbasat,! I.,! Goldstein,! D.! K.,! &! Mead,! M. ! (1987).! The! case! research strategy! in! studies! of! information! systems.! MIS! quarterly,! 11(3), 369–386.

Birkland,! T.! A.! (1997).! After! disaster:! Agenda! setting,! public! policy,! and! focus- ing ! events. ! Washington,! DC:! Georgetown! University! Press.

Birkland,! T.! A.! (2006).! Lessons! of! Disaster:! Policy! Change! after! Catastrophic Events. ! Washington,! DC:! Georgetown! University! Press.

Bohannon,! J.! (2010).! Google! opens! books! to! new! cultural! studies.! Science, 330, ! 1600.

Boushey,! G.! (2010).! Policy! diffusion! dynamics! in! America.! New! York:! Cam- bridge! University! Press.

Boushey,! G.! (2012).! Punctuated! equilibrium! theory! and! the! diffusion! of innovations.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 40(1),! 127–146.

Breunig,! C.,! &! Koski,! C.! (2006).! Punctuated! equilibria! and! budgets! in! the American! states.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 34,! 363–379.

Busenberg,! G.! J.! (1999).! The! evolution! of! vigilance:! Disasters,! sentinels! and policy! change.! Environmental! Politics,! 8(4),! 90–109.

Cairney,! P.,! &! Heikkila,! T.! (2014).! A! comparison! of! theories! of! the! policy process.! In! P.! A.! Sabatier,! &! C.! M. ! Weible! (Eds.),! Theories! of! the! policy process! (pp.! 363–390).! Boulder:! Westview! Press.

Cavaye,! A.! L.! (1996).! Case! study! research:! A! multi-faceted! research approach! for! IS.! Information! Systems! Journal, ! 6(3),! 227–242.

Chae,! H.! S.! (2017).! Netizen! investigation! unit! Zaro,! “Not! distort sincere! heart”! Responding! ‘Embarrassing! suspicion! on! Sewol! X’.. http://news.joins.com/article/21133160

Chae,! J.! (2017).! A! study! on! the! safety! culture! in! Korea! after! the! Sewol! Ferry Disaster.! Crisisonomy,! 13(8),! 191–206.

Chae,! S.! H.! (2014a).! South! Korean! leader! accepts! resigna- tion ! of! Premier! over! Ferry! Disaster..! http://www.nytimes. com/2014/04/28/world/asia/south-korean-premier-resigns-over -ferry-disaster.html?! r=0

Chae,! S.! H.! (2014b).! Nominee! for! South! Korean! premier! exits over! colonization! remarks..! http://www.nytimes.com/2014/ 06/25/world/asia/nominee-for-south-korean-premier-exits-over- colonization-remarks.html?! r=0

Chae,! S.! H.! (2014c).! President’s! Choice! for! South! Korea! premier! steps! aside.. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/29/world/asia/presidents-choice- for-south-korea-premier-steps-aside.html

Chairman! of! the! Security! and! Public! Administration! Committee.! (2014). Government! Organization! Act.! Seoul,! Korea:! National! Assembly.

Chetty,! S.! (1996).! The! case! study! method! for! research! in! small-and medium-sized! firms.! International! Small! Business! Journal,! 15(1), 73–85.

Cho,! K.! W. ! (2017).! Political! and! policy! responses! to! the! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster: Examining! change! through! multiple! theory! lenses.! (Unpublished! doctoral dissertation). ! Tallahassee,! United! States:! Florida! State! University.

Cho,! T.! I.! (2015).! Delayed! 230! drafted! Sewol! Ferry! relevant! acts.. http://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/4399149

Cho,! W. ! Y.! (2014).! Constitutional! issues! of! legislation! agreed! process between! parties! representing.! Han! Yang! Law! Review,! 25(4),! 443–465.

Cho,! Y.! H.! (2009).! A! study! on! woman! policy! change:! Focusing! on! the opposing! policy! phenomenon! on! punctuated! equilibrium! and! dise- quilibrium.! Korea! Association! for! Public! Administration! (KAPA)! Winter Conference! Presentation! Collection.

Choi,! H.,! &! Varian,! H.! (2012).! Predicting! the! present! with! Google! Trends. Economic! Record,! 88, ! 2–9.

Choi,! S.! E.! (2014).! Security! budget! analysis! and! effective! budgeting.! Korean Review! of! Crisis! and! Emergency! Management,! 10(9),! 179–203.

Chung,! J.! B.! (2013).! Conflict! management! during! disasters.! Seoul:! Korea Institution! of! Public! Administration.

Creswell,! J.! W. ! (2013).! Qualitative! inquiry! and! research! design:! Choosing among! five! approaches.! Thousand! Oaks:! Sage.

Crow,! D.! A.! (2008).! Stakeholder! behavior! and! legislative! influence:! A! case study! of! recreational! water! rights! in! Colorado.! The! Social! Science! Jour- nal, ! 45(4),! 646–658.

Czartoryski,! A.! (2011).! Worst! man-made! seaside! disasters..! https://www. boaterexam.com/blog/2011/03/worst-man-made-seaside-disasters. aspx

DeCarlo,! L.! T.! (1997).! On! the! meaning! and! use! of! kurtosis.! Psychological methods,! 2(3),! 292–307.

Doopedia.! (2016).! Samsung! –! Hebei! Spirit! Oil! Spill! Incident..! http://terms. naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=1270908&cid=40942&categoryId=37404

Ely,! M., ! Anzul,! M., ! Friedman,! T.,! Garner,! D.,! &! Steinmetz,! A.! C.! (1991).! Doing qualitative! research:! Circles! within! circles. ! New! York:! Farmer! Press.

Erlandson,! D.! A.,! Harris,! E.! L.,! Skipper,! B.! L.,! &! Allen,! S.! D.! (1993).! Doing naturalistic! inquiry:! A! guide! to! method.! Newbury! Park:! Sage.

Flink,! C.! M. ! (2017).! Rethinking! punctuated! equilibrium! theory:! A! public administration! approach! to! budgetary! changes.! Policy! Studies! Journal, 45(1), ! 101–120.

Fowler,! L.,! Neaves,! T.! T.,! Terman,! J.! N.,! &! Cosby,! A.! G.! (2017).! Cultural! pene- tration! and! punctuated! policy! change:! Explaining! the! evolution! of! US Energy! Policy.! Review! of! Policy! Research,! 34(4),! 559–577.

Gasper,! J.! T.,! &! Reeves,! A.! (2011).! Make! it! rain?! Retrospection! and! the! atten- tive! electorate! in! the! context! of! natural! disasters.! American! Journal! of Political! Science,! 55(2),! 340–355.

Glesne,! C.,! &! Peshkin,! A.! (1992).! Becoming! qualitative! researchers:! An! intro- duction. ! White! Plains:! Longman.

Goggin,! M. ! L.,! Bowman,! A.! O.! M., ! Lester,! J.! P.,! &! O’Toole,! L.! J.,! Jr.! (1990).! Imple- mentation! theory! and! practice:! Toward! a! third! generation.! Glenview: Scott! Foresman/Little! Brown.

Google! Trends.! (2018).! How ! Trends! data! is! adjusted.. https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533?hl=en

Gould,! J.! S.,! &! Eldredge,! N.! (1993).! Punctuated! equilibrium! comes! of! age. Nature, ! 366(18),! 223–227.

Grossman,! P.! Z.! (2015).! Energy! shocks,! crises! and! the! policy! process:! A review! of! theory! and! application.! Energy! Policy,! 77,! 56–69.

Guiraudon,! V.! (2000).! European! integration! and! migration! policy:! Vertical policy-making! as! venue! shopping.! Journal! of! Common! Market! Studies, 38(2), ! 251–271.

Ha,! K.! M. ! (2016).! Disasters! can! happen! to! anybody:! The! case! of! Korea. Environmental! Impact! Assessment! Review,! 57, ! 1–9.

Hall,! P.! A.! (1993).! Policy! paradigms,! social! learning:! and! the! state:! The case! of! economic! policymaking! in! Britain.! Comparative! politics, ! 25, 275–296.

Han,! S.! K.! (2012).! A! Study! on! changing! patterns! of! local! government! expen- ditures:! Focused! punctuated! equilibrium! theory,! (Unpublished! doctoral dissertation).! Seoul,! South! Korea:! Korea! University.

Hegelich,! S.! (2017).! Deep! learning! and! punctuated! equilibrium! theory. Cognitive! Systems! Research,! 45,! 59–69.

Hegelich,! S.,! Fraune,! C.,! &! Knollmann,! D.! (2015).! Point! predictions! and the! punctuated! equilibrium! theory:! A! data! mining! approach—US nuclear! policy! as! proof! of! concept.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 43(2), 228–256.

Hörhager,! E.! (2015).! Political! implications! of! natural! disasters:! Regime consolidation! and! political! contestation.! In! S.! M. ! Sener,! C.! A.! Brebbia, & ! O.! Ozcevik! (Eds.),! Disaster! management! and! human! health! risk! IV! (pp. 271–281).! Ashurst! Lodge:! WIT ! Press.

Hwang,! K.! M. ! (2015).! Looking! back! on! Sewol! ferry! disaster..! http://www. koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/04/181! 176314.html

John,! P.! (2006).! Explaining! policy! change:! The! impact! of! the! media,! public opinion! and! political! violence! on! urban! budgets! in! England.! Journal! of European! Public! Policy,! 13(7),! 1053–1068.

John,! P.,! &! Jennings,! W. ! (2010).! Punctuations! and! turning! points! in! British politics:! The! policy! agenda! of! the! Queen’s! speech,! 1940–2005.! British Journal! of! Political! Science,! 40(3),! 561–586.

Jones,! B.! D.! (2001).! Politics! and! the! architecture! of! choice:! Bounded! rationality and ! governance.! Chicago:! University! of! Chicago! Press.

Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Baumgartner,! F.! R.! (2005a).! The! politics! of! attention:! How government! prioritizes! problems.! Chicago:! University! of! Chicago! Press.

Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Baumgartner,! F.! R.! (2005b).! A! model! of! choice! for! pub- lic ! policy.! Journal! of! Public! Administration! Research! and! Theory,! 15(3), 325–351.

Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Baumgartner,! F.! R.! (2012).! From! there! to! here:! Punctuated equilibrium! to! the! general! punctuation! thesis! to! a! theory! of! govern- ment! information! processing.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 40(1),! 1–20.

Jones,! B.! D.,! Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! Breunig,! C.,! Wlezien,! C.,! Soroka,! S.,! Fou- cault,! M., ! et! al.! (2009).! A! general! empirical! law! of! public! budgets: A ! comparative! analysis.! American! Journal! of! Political! Science,! 53(4), 855–873.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

http://www.newsis.com/ar_detail/view.html?ar_id=NISX20160321_0013971411

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0015

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0020

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0025

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0030

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16563562

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0040

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0045

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0050

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0055

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0060

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0065

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0070

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0075

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0080

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0085

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0090

http://news.joins.com/article/21133160

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0100

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/world/asia/south-korean-premier-resigns-over-ferry-disaster.html?_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/asia/nominee-for-south-korean-premier-exits-over-colonization-remarks.html?_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/29/world/asia/presidents-choice-for-south-korea-premier-steps-aside.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0120

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0125

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0130

http://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/4399149

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0140

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0145

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0150

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0155

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0160

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0165

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0170

https://www.boaterexam.com/blog/2011/03/worst-man-made-seaside-disasters.aspx

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0180

http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=1270908&cid=40942&categoryId=37404

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0190

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0195

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0200

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0205

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0210

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0215

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0220

https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533?hl=en

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0230

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0235

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0240

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0245

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0250

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0255

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0260

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0265

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0270

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/04/181_176314.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0280

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0285

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0290

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0295

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0300

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0305

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0310

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx! 15

Jones,! B.! D.,! Baumgartner,! F.! R.,! &! True,! J.! L.! (1998).! Policy! punctuations: US ! budget! authority! 1947–1995.! The! Journal! of! Politics,! 60(1),! 1–33.

Jones,! B.! D.,! Sulkin,! T.,! &! Larsen,! H.! A.! (2003).! Policy! punctuations! in! Amer- ican! political! institutions.! American! Political! Science! Review,! 97(1), 151–169.

Jordan,! M.! M.! (2003).! Punctuations! and! agendas:! A! new! look! at! local government! budget! expenditures.! Journal! of! Policy! Analysis! and! Man- agement,! 22(3),! 345–360.

Jung,! J.! H.! (2015).! Representatives! drafted! 253! bills! .! .! .! Only! 11! acts declared,! even! passed! bills! with! more! haste! than! caution..! http://www. hankookilbo.com/swv/7fa8999cd3cb45b2bec67c2b66ab937c

Jung,! K.,! Song,! M.,! &! Park,! H.! W. ! (2018).! Filling! the! gap! between! bureau- cratic! and! adaptive! approaches! to! crisis! management:! Lessons! from the ! Sewol! Ferry! sinking! in! South! Korea.! Quality! &! Quantity,! 52(1), 277–294.

Karnowski,! S.! (2017).! Minnesota! bridge! collapse! still! reverberates! 10 years! later.! Chicago! Tribune.! July.! http://www.chicagotribune. com/news/nationworld/midwest/ct-minnesota-bridge-collapse- anniversary-20170730-story.html

Kemp,! K.! A.! (1982).! Instability! in! budgeting! for! federal! regulatory! agencies. Social! Science! Quarterly,! 63(4),! 643–660.

Kim,! H.! M., ! &! Lee,! S.! Y.! (2014).! Punctuated! equilibrium! theory! and! policy change.! Korean! Association! for! Policy! Studies! (KAPS)! Spring! Conference Presentation! Collection.

Kim,! J.! E.! (2014).! Body! of! fugitive! billionaire! in! Sewol! Ferry! case! found.. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/asia/south-korea-ferry/ index.html

Kim,! K.! H.,! Park,! K.! B.,! &! Han,! J.! S.! (2014).! The! ruling! party! asked! for! a! pack- age! deal! of! ‘the! Sewol! Special! Act,! the! Government! Organization! Act, and! the! Yoo! Byung-eun! Act’,! Stormy! voyage..! http://the300.mt.co.kr/ newsView.html?no=2014093015307691507

Kim,! K.! R.! (2008).! A! study! for! the! necessity! of! restructuring! Korea’s! emer- gency! management! organization:! Focused! on! disaster! emergency preparation! and! civil! defence! affairs.! Journal! of! Korean! Institute! of! Fire Science! and! Engineering,! 22(2),! 1–8.

Kim,! M. ! J.! (2012).! A! pattern! analysis! on! types! of! budget! change! in! the! Offi- cial! Development! Assistance! (ODA)! budget:! An! application! of! punctuated equilibrium! theory,! (Unpublished! doctoral! dissertation).! Seoul,! South Korea:! Korea! University.

Kim,! S.! (2010).! On! Korean! Dual! Civil! Society:! Thinking! through! Tocqueville and! Confucius.! Contemporary! Political! Theory,! 9(4),! 434–457.

Kingdon,! J.! W. ! (1995).! Agendas,! Alternatives,! and! Public! Policies! (2nd! Ed.). New! York:! Harper! Collin.

Klobuchar,! A.! (2017).! Senator:! Minnesota! bridge! collapse! 10! years ago ! shows! bipartisan! path! forward.! https://www.usatoday. com/story/opinion/2017/07/31/minnesota-bridge-collapse- infrastructure-bipartisan-amy-klobuchar-column/526238001/

Kwon,! S.! W., ! Choi,! S.! O.,! &! Bae,! S.! S.! (2013).! Effects! of! political! institutions! on punctuated-equilibrium! in! local! emergency! management! policy! pro- cesses:! Examination! of! county! governments! in! Florida,! U.S.! Lex! Localis, 11(2), ! 193–211.

Lee,! A.! R.,! &! Glasure,! Y.! U.! (2007).! Social! Capital! and! Political! Participation in ! South! Korea.! Asian! Affairs,! 34(2),! 101–118.

Lee,! A.! S.! (1989).! A! scientific! methodology! for! MIS ! case! studies.! MIS ! quar- terly, ! 13(1),! 33–50.

Lee,! G.! H.,! Yim,! H.! S.,! &! Hong,! J.! S.! (2014).! Some! candlelight! protests! bound to! the! Blue! House,! without! participation! victims’! family. ! http://news. donga.com/3/all/20140519/63570018/1#csidx4595f8c25f0cd589 a0c2f558a06de00

Lee,! H.! A.! (2014).! Korea! Institute! of! Finance! estimates! 0.1%! growth rate! deceasing! .! .! .! reflecting! Sewol! Ferry! Disaster..! http://news1. kr/articles/?1665378

Lee,! K.! B.! (2015).! KCG! selected! as! a! disaster! superior! agency! before Sewol! Ferry! Disaster!! Once! again?! http://www.econovill.com/ news/articleView.html?idxno=233739

Leonhardt,! D.! (2006).! How! to! use! Google! Trends.! New! York! Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/05/business/05leonhardt- aboutgoogtrends.html

Lincoln,! Y.! S.,! &! Guba,! E.! G.! (1985).! Naturalistic! inquiry.! Beverly! Hills:! Sage. Lindblom,! C.! (1959).! The! science! of! “muddling! through”.! Public! Adminis-

tration! Review,! 19(2),! 79–88. Maesschalck,! J.! (2002).! When! do! scandals! have! an! impact! on! policy

making?! A! case! study! of! the! police! reform! following! the! Dutroux scandal! in! Belgium.! International! Public! Management! Journal,! 5, 169–193.

March,! J.! G.,! &! Olsen,! J.! P.! (1989).! Rediscovering! institutions:! The! organiza- tional! basis! of! politics.! New! York:! The! Free! Press.

Marichal,! J.! (2009).! Frame! evolution:! A! new! approach! to! understanding changes! in! diversity! reforms! at! public! universities! in! the! United! States. The ! Social! Science! Journal,! 46(1),! 171–191.

Matias,! Y.,! Efron,! N.,! &! Shimshoni,! Y.! (2009).! On! the! predictability! of search! trends. ! Google! Labs,! Israel:! Google! Research! Blog.! https://ai. googleblog.com/2009/08/on-predictability-of-search-trends.html

May,! P.! J.,! Workman,! S.,! &! Jones,! B.! D.! (2008).! Organizing! attention: Responses! of! the! bureaucracy! to! agenda! disruption.! Journal! of! Public Administration! Research! and! Theory,! 18(4),! 517–541.

McKirdy,! E.,! &! Cha,! F.! (2014).! South! Korea’s! Sewol! ferry! dis- aster:! The! challenge! ahead. ! CNN.! April.! https://edition.cnn. com/2014/04/17/world/asia/south-korea-sewol-ferry-explainer/ index.html

Merriam,! S.! B.! (1988).! Case! study! research! in! education:! A! qualitative approach.! San! Francisco:! Jossey-Bass.

Michel,! J.! B.,! Shen,! Y.! K.,! Aiden,! A.! P.,! Veres,! A.,! Gray,! M. ! K.,! Google! Books Team,! et! al.! (2011).! Quantitative! analysis! of! culture! using! millions! of digitized! books.! Science,! 1199644,! 1–7.

Miles,! M. ! B.,! &! Huberman,! A.! M. ! (1994).! Qualitative! data! analysis:! A! source- book! of! new! methods.! Thousand! Oaks:! Sage! Publications.

Moon,! K.! M.! (2008).! A! study! on! the! compensation! for! pollution! damage! and the! special! act! enacted! for! the! Hebei! Spirit! oil! spill! incident! at! Taean. The! Journal! of! the! Korean! Maritime! Law! Association,! 30(2),! 23–60.

Mortensen,! P.! B.! (2005).! Policy! punctuations! in! Danish! local! budgeting. Public! Administration,! 83(4),! 931–950.

Mortensen,! P.! B.! (2009).! Political! attention! and! public! spending! in! the United! States.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 37(3),! 435–455.

MPSS.! (2015).! MPSS! confirms! 2016! budget! 320! million..! http://www.korea. kr/policy/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156074351

Oh,! J.! W. ! (2014).! LG! economic! research! Institute! Sewol! Ferry influence! to! economy! visually! .! .! .! Need! for! initiative! action.. http://news1.kr/articles/?1665378

Pallardy,! R.! (2018).! Deepwater! Horizon! oil! spill! of! 2010.! Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Deepwater-Horizon-oil-spill-of- 2010

Park,! G.! H.! (2014).! Statement! to! the! nation..! http://www1.president. go.kr/news/newsList.php?srh[view! mode=detail&srh[seq]=5835]

Park,! S.! H.,! Kim,! Y.! S.,! &! Seo,! M. ! S.! (2014).! Commission! for! national! investiga- tion! on! Sewol! Ferry! begins! next! month! 2nd! for! 90! Days! .! .! .! Pass! through Regular! Session..! http://news1.kr/articles/1700046

Park,! T.! K.! (1999).! Government! Policy! Attitude! on! Nonprofit! Organisa- tions! and! Activities:! A! Comparative! Study! between! Japan! and! Korea. In! Proceedings! from! First! International! Conference! on! Third! Sector! in! Asia.

Patton,! M. ! Q.! (1980).! Qualitative! evaluation! methods.! Beverly! Hills:! Sage. Patton,! M. ! Q.! (1990).! Qualitative! evaluation! and! research! methods.! Newbury

Park:! Sage. Popper,! K.! (1968).! The! logic! of! scientific! discovery.! New! York:! Harper! Torch-

books. Pralle,! S.! B.! (2003).! Venue! shopping,! political! strategy,! and! policy! change:

The! internationalization! of! Canadian! forest! advocacy.! Journal! of! public policy, ! 23(3),! 233–260.

Princen,! S.! (2013).! Punctuated! equilibrium! theory! and! the! European Union.! Journal! of! European! Public! Policy,! 20(6),! 854–870.

Redford,! E.! S.! (1969).! Democracy! in! the! administrative! state.! New! York: Oxford! University! Press.

Repetto,! R.! (2006).! Punctuated! equilibrium! and! the! dynamics! of! US! environ- mental! policy. ! New! Haven:! Yale! University! Press.

Robinson,! S.! E.! (2004).! Punctuated! equilibrium,! bureaucratization, and! budgetary! changes! in! schools.! Policy! Studies! Journal, ! 32(1), 25–39.

Robinson,! R.! (2013).! Punctuated! equilibrium! and! the! Supreme! Court.! Pol- icy! Studies! Journal,! 41(4),! 654–681.

Robinson,! S.! E.,! Caver,! F.! S.,! Meier,! K.! J.,! &! O’Toole,! L.! J.,! Jr.! (2007).! Explaining policy! punctuations:! Bureaucratization! and! budget! change.! American Journal! of! Political! Science,! 51(1),! 140–150.

Robinson,! S.! E.,! Flink,! C.! M., ! &! King,! C.! M. ! (2014).! Organizational! history and! budgetary! punctuation.! Journal! of! Public! Administration! Research and! Theory,! 24(2),! 459–471.

Rogowski,! R.! (2010).! How! inference! in! the! social! (but! not! the! physical) sciences! neglects! theoretical! anomaly.! In! H.! E.! Brady,! &! D.! Collier! (Eds.), Rethinking! social! inquiry:! Diverse! tools,! shared! standards! (pp.! 89–97). Lanham:! Rowman! &! Littlefield! Publishers.

Sabatier,! P.! (1993).! Policy! change! over! a! decade! or! more.! In! P.! A.! Sabatier,! & H. ! Jenkins-Smith! (Eds.),! Policy! change! and! learning:! An! advocacy! coali- tion! approach! (pp.! 13–40).! Boulder:! Westview! Press.

Safety4Sea.! (2018).! Maritime! history:! Costa! Concordia! disaster.. https://safety4sea.com/maritime-history-costa-concordia-disaster/

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0315

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0320

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0325

http://www.hankookilbo.com/swv/7fa8999cd3cb45b2bec67c2b66ab937c

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0335

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/midwest/ct-minnesota-bridge-collapse-anniversary-20170730-story.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0345

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0350

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/asia/south-korea-ferry/index.html

http://the300.mt.co.kr/newsView.html?no=2014093015307691507

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0365

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0370

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0375

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0380

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/07/31/minnesota-bridge-collapse-infrastructure-bipartisan-amy-klobuchar-column/526238001/

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0390

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0395

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0400

http://news.donga.com/3/all/20140519/63570018/1#csidx4595f8c25f0cd589a0c2f558a06de00

http://news1.kr/articles/?1665378

http://www.econovill.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=233739

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/05/business/05leonhardt-aboutgoogtrends.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0425

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0430

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0435

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0440

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0445

https://ai.googleblog.com/2009/08/on-predictability-of-search-trends.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0455

https://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/17/world/asia/south-korea-sewol-ferry-explainer/index.html

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0465

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0470

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0475

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0480

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0485

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0490

http://www.korea.kr/policy/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156074351

http://news1.kr/articles/?1665378

https://www.britannica.com/event/Deepwater-Horizon-oil-spill-of-2010

http://www1.president.go.kr/news/newsList.php?srh%5Bview_mode%5D=detail&srh%5Bseq%5D=5835

http://news1.kr/articles/1700046

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0520

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0525

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0530

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0535

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0540

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0545

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0550

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0555

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0560

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0565

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0570

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0575

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0580

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0585

https://safety4sea.com/maritime-history-costa-concordia-disaster/

ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelSOCSCI-1565;! No.! of! Pages! 16 16! K.W.! Cho! and! K! Jung! /! The! Social! Science! Journal! xxx! (2019)! xxx–xxx

Schneider,! S.! K.! (1995).! Flirting! with! disaster:! Public! management! in! crisis situations. ! Armonk:! ME ! Sharpe.

Shaluf,! I.! M. ! (2007).! An! overview! on! disaster.! Disaster! Prevention! and! Man- agement:! An! International! Journal,! 16(5),! 687–703.

Shaw,! M. ! D.! (2017).! Pathways! to! institutional! equilibrium! after! a! cam- pus! disaster.! Journal! of! Contingencies! and! Crisis! Management,! 25(2), 103–113.

Sheingate,! A.! D.! (2000).! Agricultural! retrenchment! revisited:! Issue! defi- nition! and! venue! change! in! the! United! States! and! European! Union. Governance, ! 13(3),! 335–363.

Shiffman,! J.! (2003).! Generating! political! will! for! safe! motherhood! in Indonesia.! Social! Science! &! Medicine,! 56(6),! 1197–1207.

Shin,! K.! Y.! (2014).! Despite! the! staying! announcement,! passengers! opened the! doors! due! to! the! memory! of! Sewol! Ferry..! http://news.donga. com/List/EnterTVhttp/3/all/20140503/63232569/1

Sylves,! R.! (2008).! Disaster! policy! and! politics:! Emergency! management! and homeland! security.! Washington,! DC:! CQ! Press.

Tarn,! J.! M.,! Wen,! H.! J.,! &! Shih,! S.! C.! (2008).! A! theoretical! perspective of ! man-made! system! disasters:! Social-technical! analysis! and! design. Disaster! Prevention! and! Management:! An! International! Journal,! 17(2), 256–280.

Tilcsik,! A.,! &! Marquis,! C.! (2013).! Punctuated! generosity:! How! mega-events and! natural! disasters! affect! corporate! philanthropy! in! U.S.! communi- ties. ! Administrative! Science! Quarterly,! 58(1),! 111–148.

Timmermans,! A.,! &! Scholten,! P.! (2006).! The! political! flow! of! wisdom: Science! institutions! as! policy! venues! in! The! Netherlands.! Journal! of European! Public! Policy,! 13(7),! 1104–1118.

True,! J.! L.! (2000).! Avalanches! and! incrementalism:! Making! policy! and! bud- gets! in! the! United! States.! The! American! Review! of! Public! Administration, 30(1), ! 3–18.

True,! J.! L.,! Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Baumgartner,! F.! R.! (1999).! Punctuated-equilibrium theory:! Explaining! stability! and! change! in! American! policymaking.! In

P.! A.! Sabatier! (Ed.),! Theories! of! the! policy! process! (pp.! 97–115).! Boulder: Westview! Press.

True,! J.! L.,! Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Baumgartner,! F.! R.! (2007).! Punctuated-equilibrium theory:! Explaining! stability! and! change! in! American! policymaking. In! P.! A.! Sabatier! (Ed.),! Theories! of! the! policy! process! (pp.! 155–187). Boulder:! Westview! Press.

Truth! Foundation! Sewol! Ferry! Recode! Team.! (2016).! Sewol! Ferry,! Recode of! the! day.! Seoul,! South! Korea:! Truth! Foundation.

Wildavsky,! A.! B.! (1964).! The! politics! of! the! budgetary! process.! Boston:! Little, Brown.

Wildavsky,! A.! B.! (1984).! The! Politics! of! the! budgetary! process! (4th! Ed.). Boston:! Little,! Brown.

Wood,! R.! S.! (2006).! The! dynamics! of! incrementalism:! Subsystems,! politics, and! public! lands.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 34(1),! 1–16.

Workman,! S.,! Jones,! B.! D.,! &! Jochim,! A.! E.! (2009).! Information! processing and! policy! dynamics.! Policy! Studies! Journal,! 37(1),! 75–92.

Yin,! R.! K.! (1980).! Creeping! federalism:! The! federal! impact! on! the! structure and! function! of! local! government.! In! N.! J.! Glickman! (Ed.),! The! urban impacts! of! federal! policies! (pp.! 593–618).! Baltimore:! John! Hopkins! Uni- versity! Press.

Yin,! R.! K.! (2014).! Case! study! research:! Design! and! methods.! Thousand! Oaks: Sage! Publications.

Yoo,! K.! R.! (2007a).! An! empirical! analysis! of! punctuated! equilibrium! in Korean! and! Japanese! central! government! expenditure! budget.! Korean Journal! of! Policy! Analysis! and! Evaluation,! 17(3),! 221–249.

Yoo,! K.! R.! (2007b).! Time! series! analysis! on! policy! punctuated! on! Korean central! government! budget.! Korean! Public! Administration! Review, 41(2), ! 95–116.

Yu,! H.! (2009).! Policy! Change.! Seoul:! Daeyoung! Co.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0362-3319(19)30003-5/sbref0595