China today
TachiYan
China_Third_Revolution_Chs.121.pptxChina: The Third Revolution Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State
Elizabeth Economy
Elizabeth Economy, PhD
Council on Foreign Relations:
C. V. Starr senior fellow
Director for Asia studies
Hoover Institution of Stanford University
Visiting Fellow
She is an acclaimed author and expert on Chinese domestic and foreign policy, writing on topics ranging from China's environmental challenges to its role in global governance.
BA – Swarthmore; MA – Stanford; PhD – University of Michigan
Primary Theses
1. Xi Jinping has steered politics and economics towards repression, state control, and confrontation
Xi Jinping has used his power to reassert dominance of the Communist Party and of his own position within it
As part of the campaign against corruption, he has purged potential rivals
He has executed sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army to ensure loyalty of the military to the party and to him personally
Mr. Xi has imprisoned supporters of Western liberal reform and stamped out criticism of the party and government in the media and online
He has created a surveillance state to monitor discontent and deviance.
China increasingly controls business as an arm of state power
Made in China 2025 plan uses subsidies and protection to create world leadership in ten industries including aviation, tech & energy
Belt and Road Initiative subsidizes infrastructure development in Asia and Africa in return for Chinese trade agreements
c. Regional production chains or production networks are the mechanism by which China influences Asian economies and integrates itself with the global economy.
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates exploitation of scale and scope economies
Ideologically, Chinese path is captured in the “Chinese Dream”
The Third Revolution
The Rejuvenation of the Great Chinese Nation
Common Factors that Explain Takeoff
Openness to trade and investment – higher than rest of world
Strong Export Demand in advanced industrial economy
Increasing intra-regional trade
High Domestic Savings & Investment Rates
Strengthened physical and digital infrastructure
Improved quality of human capital
Active Government Involvement in Economy
Openness to trade
Share of Asian trade as % total world trade increasing at expense of European and Russian trade
North American trade relatively stable.
China: export partners in 2016, by export value (in billion yuan)
United States
“…other than trade and FDI (foreign direct investment), regional production chains or production networks became a mechanism by which Asian economies tangibly influenced each other as well as integrated in a market-led manner. As barriers to the movement of goods, services and factors of production are dropped further, Asian economies would integrate more with each other as well as with the global economy.” Das, p. 13
Enables higher degree of specialization and integration
Facilitates exploitation of scale and scope economies
China’s Rise as a Regional Economic Power
Pre-1978 era (Mao Zedong: 1949-76)
Collectivisation (1950-59)
Great Leap Forward (1958-62) – Rapid Industrialization
Widespread distrust of neighboring Asian countries
1978 – 1992 (Deng Xiaoping)
Strategy of softening and widening the strict Communist message – key to crucial to China’s economic revival
Small scale privatization of state businesses; shift to regional govt
Remain passive in exerting regional influence and not being anxious to assume or assert leadership in regional affairs
(bayao dangtou: “not seeking leadership”
1992 – 2002 (Jiang Zemin)
Socialism with Chinese characteristics” – moving socialist market economy
Chinese economy became more diverse
Markets gradually attracted foreign investment
Peaceful foreign policy
2002 – 2012 (Hu Jintao)
Re-introduced state control over key economic sectors
Socialist Harmonious Society: Crackdown on social disturbances and focus on income inequality and cronyism
Soft power in international relations while quietly building economic power in Latin America, Africa
Oversaw China through global financial crisis
2012 – present (Xi Jinping)
Get government out of resource allocation: Keep the SOE’s, but make them more efficient
“decisive” role of market forces in allocating resources
Government’s functions:
Macroeconomic management
Market regulation
Public service delivery
Supervision of society
Environmental protection
Belt and Road Initiative: Infrastructure
Connectivity: seamless connection of rail,
road, and sea
Xi’s strategy: Public/Private Partnership
Belt and Road Initiative
By sector, the bulk of Chinese investments has gone into energy, transport, and real estate. The three sectors accounted for 78 percent of China’s cumulative investment and construction contracts in Asean countries from 2005 to the first half of 2017
Focus: East and Southeast Asia
China
NIEs - Newly industrialized economies
Hong Kong, SAR (special administrative region)
Republic of Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
ASEAN – Association of South East Asian Nations
Indonesia Thailand
Malaysia Singapore
Philippines Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam
Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Chapter 2: Heart of Darkness: Consolidation of Political Power Under Xi Jingping
Primary Theses:
1.
President Xi Jinping is poised to rule China indefinitely after Chinese lawmakers in March 2018 passed changes to the country's constitution abolishing presidential term limits.
Since Xi assumed leadership of China's Communist Party in 2012, he has rapidly consolidated power to levels not seen since the era of Mao Zedong. The constitutional change officially allows him to remain in office after the end of his second term in 2023.
Xi Jingping is committed to enforcing and extending political reforms that were initiated in 2013 based on the following principles:
Sanctity and credibility of the Maoist era (1949 -76)
b. Recognition of the achievements of Deng Xiaoping (1978-92)
Family-planning initiative
Decentralization of economic management and flexible state control of economic growth
Establishment of free trade zones to encourage export market
Chinese military must be capable of fighting and winning wars
China’s place in the world is as a global power
Political Reforms to Achieve the Agenda
Political Power (pps. 25 - 29)
Promote officials he knows and trusts
Reorganization of the Chinese military, with generals loyal to Xi Jinping
Weakening of the Communist Youth League to weaken pro-Western elements and to identify party loyalists
2. Anti Corruption Campaign (pps. 29 – 37)
Anti-Bribery
Access to good doctors quickly
Housing in less polluted parts of the city
Overlook violations in food/industrial safety
Access to schools
Expense Accounts and Display of Wealth Discouraged
Impact
a strategic opportunity for Ji to acquire power. Without using the anti-corrupt campaign to acquire power to get rid of his enemies, he could not have amassed so much power today
Means no secondary power base can develop to threaten Xi – serving as a bureaucrat is “lowly”
Impact
Re-inforces everyone’s belief that there IS major corruption
Invites possibility of backlash
“The campaign has produced pockets of highly discontented officials: retired leaders whose power has been diminished, officals and businesspeople who are frustrated with new spending restrictions, and legal officials and political reformers who are concerned about the lack of transparency and the rule of law in the way the anticorruption campaign is being prosecuted.” (p. 34)
Rejection of Western cultural and ideological influences:
Document 9
Constitutionalism
Universal values
Civil society
Neoliberalism and market economics
Freedom of the press
Reassessing (scholarly research) on China’s history
Use of Neoclassical economics and Enlightenment theories (Rights of Man) as a standard of judging China’s progress
Rejection of Western cultural and ideological influence
Document 9 (2013)
The Seven Noteworthy Problems
Promoting Western Constitutional Democracy: An attempt to undermine the current leadership and the "socialism with Chinese characteristics" system of governance. (Including the separation of powers, the multi-party system, general elections, and independent judiciaries.)
Promoting “universal values” in an attempt to weaken the theoretical foundations of the Party’s leadership. (That “the West’s values are the prevailing norm for all human civilization”, that “only when China accepts Western (Enlightenment – “rights of man” values will it have a future”.)
Promoting civil society in an attempt to dismantle the ruling party’s social foundation. (i.e. that individual rights are paramount and ought to be immune to obstruction by the state.)
Promoting Neoliberalism, attempting to change China’s Basic Economic System. (i.e. unrestrained economic liberalization, complete privatization, and total marketization.)
Promoting the West’s idea of journalism and freedom of the press, challenging China’s principle that the media and publishing system should be subject to Party discipline.
Promoting historical nihilism, i.e., reassessing (scholarly research) on China’s history. For example to deny the scientific and guiding value of Mao Zedong thought.)
Questioning Reform and China’s Commitment to Chinese socialism/state capitalism (For example, saying “We have deviated from our Socialist orientation.”)
Use of Surveillance to Maintain Social Control
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ5LnY21Hgc – Wall St. Journal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH2gMNrUuEY - Economist
