Reflection

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Chapter9.ProjectSchedulingNetworksDurationEstimationandCriticalPath.pptx

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Project Management: Achieving Competitive Advantage

Fifth Edition

Chapter 9

Project Scheduling: Networks, Duration Estimation, and Critical Path

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Learning Objectives (1 of 2)

9.1 Understand the importance of project scheduling techniques.

9.2 Understand and apply key scheduling terminology.

9.3 Develop an activity network using Activity-on-Node (A O N) technique.

9.4 Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.

Learning Objectives (2 of 2)

9.5 Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes, determine project slack, and calculate the probability of finishing on time.

P M B o K Core Concepts

Project Management Body of Knowledge (P M B o K) covered in this chapter includes:

Plan Schedule Management (P M B o K 6.1)

Define Activities (P M B o K 6.2)

Sequence Activities (P M B o K 6.3)

Estimate Activity Resources (P M B o K 6.4)

Estimate Activity Durations (P M B o K 6.5)

Develop Schedule (P M B o K 6.6)

Control Schedule (P M B o K 6.7)

Project Scheduling

Project scheduling requires us to follow some carefully laid-out steps, in order, for the schedule to take shape. P M B o K states, “an output of a schedule model that presents linked activities with planned dates, durations, milestones, and resources.”

Project planning, as it relates to the scheduling process, has been defined by the P M B o K as:

The identification of the project objectives and the ordered activity necessary to complete the project including the identification of resource types and quantities required to carry out each activity or task.

Network Diagram—Serial Sequential Logic

Figure 9.2A Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment

Network Diagram – Nonserial Sequential Logic

Figure 9.2B Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment

Project Scheduling Terms (1 of 4)

Project Network Diagram: Any schematic display of the logical relationships of project activities.

Path: A sequence of activities defined by the project network logic.

Event: A point when an activity is either started or completed.

Node: One of the defining points of a network; a junction point joined to some or all of the other dependency lines (paths).

Project Scheduling Terms (2 of 4)

Predecessors: Those activities that must be completed prior to initiation of a later activity in the network.

Successors: Activities that cannot be started until previous activities have been completed. These activities follow predecessor tasks.

Early start (E S) date: The earliest possible date the uncompleted portions of an activity can start.

Late start (L S) date: The latest possible date that an activity may begin without delaying a specified milestone.

Project Scheduling Terms (3 of 4)

Forward pass: Network calculations to determine earliest start/earliest finish for an activity through working forward through each activity in network.

Backward pass: Network calculations to determine late start/late finish for uncompleted tasks through working backward through each activity in network.

Merge activity: An activity with two or more immediate predecessors.

Burst activity: An activity with two or more immediate successors.

Project Scheduling Terms (4 of 4)

Float: The amount of time an activity may be delayed from its early start without delaying the finish of the project.

Critical path: The path through project network with the longest duration.

Critical Path Method: A network analysis technique used to determine the amount of schedule flexibility on logical network paths in project schedule network and to determine minimum project duration.

Resource-limited schedule: Start and finish dates reflect expected resource availability.

A O A Versus A O N

Node Labels

Figure 9.3 Labels for Activity Node

Serial Activities

Serial activities are those that flow from one to the next, in sequence.

Figure 9.5 Project Activities Linked in Series

Concurrent Activities

When the nature of the work allows for more than one activity to be accomplished at the same time, these activities are called concurrent, and parallel project paths are constructed through the network.

Figure 9.6 Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent)

Figure 9.7 Merge Activity

Activity D can only begin following the completion of activities A, B, and C.

Figure 9.8 Burst Activity

Activities B, C, and D can only begin following the completion of activity A.

Complete Activity Network

Figure 9.10 Complete Activity Network for Project Delta

Duration Estimation Methods

Experience

Expert opinion

Mathematical derivation—Beta distribution

Most likely (m)

Most pessimistic (b)

Most optimistic (a)

Two assumptions used to convert m, a, and b into time estimates (T E) and variances

Figure 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation

Figure 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation

Activity Duration Estimates (1 of 2)

Table 9.2 Activity Duration Estimates for Project Delta

Name: Project Delta

Durations are listed in weeks

Activity	Description	Optimistic	Most Likely	Pessimistic
A	Contract signing	3	4	11
B	Questionnaire design	2	5	8
C	Target market I D	3	6	9
D	Survey sample	8	12	20
E	Develop presentation	3	5	12
F	Analyze results	2	4	7
G	Demographic analysis	6	9	14
H	Presentation to client	1	2	4

Activity Duration Estimates (2 of 2)

Table 9.3 Estimated Project Activity Times Using Beta Distribution

Name: Project Delta

Durations are listed in weeks

Activity	Description	T E start fraction left parenthesis 1:4:1 ration right parenthesis over 6
A	Contract signing	5
B	Questionnaire design	5
C	Target market I D	6
D	Survey sample	12.7
E	Develop presentation	5.8
F	Analyze results	4.2
G	Demographic analysis	9.3
H	Presentation to client	2.2

Constructing the Critical Path

Forward pass—an additive move through the network from start to finish

Backward pass—a subtractive move through the network from finish to start

Critical path—the longest path from end to end which determines the shortest project length

Figure 9.16 Partial Project Activity Network with Task Durations

Figure 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass

Figure 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass

Figure 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical Path

Figure 9.24 A O N Network with Laddering Effect

Figure 9.25 Example of a Hammock Activity

Options for Reducing the Critical Path

Eliminate tasks on the critical path.

Replan serial paths to be in parallel.

Overlap sequential tasks.

Shorten the duration on critical path tasks.

Shorten early tasks.

Shorten longest tasks.

Shorten easiest tasks.

Shorten tasks that cost the least to speed up.

Summary (1 of 2)

Understand the importance of project scheduling techniques.

Understand and apply key scheduling terminology.

Develop an activity network using Activity-on-Node (A O N) technique.

Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.

Summary (2 of 2)

Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes, determine project slack, and calculate the probability of finishing on time.

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