At lease 1000 words due June 9th 12:00pm Central Time

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Chapter8.pdf

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Environment Tenth Edition

Raven

Chapter 8

The Human Population

Overview of Chapter 8

• The Science of Demography

• Demographics of Countries

• Population and Quality of Life

• Reducing the Total Fertility Rate

• Government Policies and Fertility

Gender Equality and Population Growth • For sustainable development, need to address population

growth, chronic hunger, and other problems

• High rates of population growth cause many problems

• Gender equality one way to accelerate progress

o Girls’ and women's’ access to education, birth control

• Access to modern birth control worldwide ~ 56% o Western Asia ~ 38%

o Africa ~ 30%

o Some nations < 10%

The Science of Demography

• Demography

o Branch of sociology that studies population statistics, structure, and growth

• Human population since 1980 is J-shaped curve (7.5 billion in 2017)

Human Population Growth

• Human population reached:

o 1 billion around 1800

o 2 billion in 1930

o 3 billion in 1960

o 4 billion in 1975

o 5 billion in 1987

o 6 billion in 1999

o 7 billion in 2011

Decline in Death Rate Causing Growth

• Population is increasing due to decrease in death rate

o Birth rate has declined over 200yr

o Greater food production

o Better medical care

o Improvements in water quality and sanitation

• Growth rate (r) has started to decline

o Will continue to decline until “zero population growth”

o S-curve may replace J-curve

Current and Future Population Numbers

• Projections for 2050

o Low = 9.3 billion

o High = 10.2 billion

o Most likely = 9.7 billion

Carrying Capacity

• Carrying Capacity (K)

o The maximum number of individuals of a given species that a particular environment can support for an indefinite period, assuming no changes in the environment (Chapter 5)

• Both environmental constraints and human values have an impact on K

• Uncertain what the carrying capacity of the Earth is for humans

Demographics of Countries

Table 8.1 The World’s 10 Most Populous Countries

Country 2016 Population (in millions) Population Density (per square kilometer)

China 1378 144

India 1329 404

United States 324 33

Indonesia 259 135

Brazil 206 24

Pakistan 203 252

Nigeria 187 2

Bangladesh 163 1104

Russia 144 8

Mexico 129 65

Source: Population Reference Bureau.

Population Growth in Developing Versus Developed Nations • Population growth and population characteristics are not the

same in all countries Table 8.2 Comparison of 2016 Population Data in Developed and Developing Countries Blank Developed (Highly

Developed) United States

Developing (Moderately Developed) Venezuela

Developing (Less Developed) Ethiopia

Fertility rate 1.8 2.4 4.2

Projected population change, 2016–2050* 1.2 1.3 1.7

Infant mortality rate 5.8 per 1000 12.8 per 1000 47 per 1000

Life expectancy at birth males: 76 years females: 81 years

males: 72 years females: 78 years

males: 62 years females: 66 years

Per capita GNI PPP (2015; U.S. $)** $56,430 17,730 $1,620

Women using modern contraception 68% 62% 36%

*Includes fertility, mortality, and migration estimates; 2050 population is presented as a multiple of the 2016 population **GNI PPP = gross national income in purchasing power parity Source: Population Reference Bureau.

Replacement Level Fertility

• Number of children a couple must have to “replace themselves” o 2.1 children

• Greater than 2 because some will die before reproductive age

• Total fertility rate worldwide is 2.5 children o More than replacement level fertility

Birth Rates Around the World

Demographic Stages

• Pre-industrial Stage o Birth and death rates high, modest population growth

• Transitional Stage o Lowered death rate, rapid population growth

• Industrial Stage o Birth rate decline, population growth slow

• Postindustrial Stage o Low birth and death rates, population growth very slow

Demographic Transition

Fertility Changes in Developing Countries

• Population in many developing countries approaching stabilization o TFR declining

Age Structure Diagrams

Age Structure- Pre-Reproductive

• Population Growth Momentum o Potential for future

increases or decreases in a population based on current age structure

o Increase seen when largest population is in pre-reproductive age group (26% of world population is under 15)

Age Structure – Over age 65

• Low fertility rate usually leads to larger elderly population o Most are retired - not a

part of workforce

o Increase on country’s tax burden

o High percentage of disabled or chronically ill

Effects of Aging Population

• Japan- Longest life expectancy o Men 80; women 87

o Low fertility rate and fears that young may not support elderly

o Incentives to continue working past retirement

• Russia has fertility rate of 1.8 o Declining population

o Incentives for young to start families

• A rising issue for the world

Population and Quality of Life • Difficult to meet basic needs in developing countries

• Problems associated with overpopulation: o Environmental degradation, Hunger, Persistent poverty,

Economic stagnation, Urban deterioration, Health issues

• Can Earth sustainably support 9.7 billion people? o Depends on quality of life

o People, businesses, governments changing habits

Coping with AIDS in Africa

• Spread of AIDS lowered population and population growth in Africa o Progress to fight AIDS slows

spread of disease

• High mortality has decreased life expectancy o 49 years in Swaziland (2013)

• Recent years, greater access to the antiretroviral therapy o Still many deaths, but some

success in suppressing virus

Population and Chronic Hunger

• Food security- when people DO NOT live in hunger or fear of starvation

• Food insecurity – when people live with chronic hunger and malnutrition

• Effects of Chronic Hunger

o Weakened immune system

o Illness and disease • Malaria

• Measles

• Diarrhea

• Acute respiratory illness

Solving the Food Access Problem

• Control population growth

• Promote economic development of developing countries without adequate food supplies

• Provide assess to food and land resources to those who live in areas without them

• Economic development - expansion in a government’s economy, may be best way to raise standard of living

Economic Effects of Population Growth

• Two viewpoints from economists: o Population growth stimulates economic development and

technological innovation

o Rapid population expansion hampers developmental efforts

• Most observations support the second viewpoint

• In order for country to increase its standard of living, its economic growth must exceed its population growth

Reducing the Total Fertility Rate

Three major influences on total fertility rate:

1. Cultural traditions

2. Social and economic status of women

3. Family planning

Culture and Fertility

• Culture influences and controls individual behaviors o Marriage age

o Due to high infant and child mortality rates, couple is expected to have large number of children

o Children often work (pictured left)

o Religious values

How might a high incidence of child labor be related to a nation’s TFR?

Social and Economic Status of Women

• Gender inequality is common worldwide o Social construct resulting in women not having the same rights,

opportunities, or privileges as men

• Disparities o Political participation

o Social status

o Economic status

o Health status

o Legal rights

o Education

o Employment and earnings

• Gender parity is goal Compare rates of illiteracy in Ethiopia and Kenya, for both men and women.

Less Women Marrying Young

• Correlation between average marriage age and total fertility rate o Pakistan – avg. age of

marriage 19.5, TFR 3.7

o Denmark – avg. age of marriage 32, TFR 1.7

• Women’s education strongly correlated to total fertility rates

Family Planning Services

• Family planning services o Services that enable both men and women to limit family size,

safeguard individual health rights, and improve the quality of life for themselves and their children

Government Policy and Fertility- China

• Largest population in the world

• Controversial Family Planning Policy o 1971 - Chinese Government actively pursued birth control

o 1979- incentives to promote later marriages and one-child families

• Incentives - medical care, schooling for child, cash bonuses, preferential housing, retirement funds

• If second child was born, all incentives revoked or returned

o Decrease in fertility from 5.8 births per woman to 2.1 birth per woman in 1981

One-Child Policy Now Relaxed

• Plan was controversial and unpopular o Social pressure to abort a

second child

o Pressure to abort/kill female first child

• 120 boys to 100 girls, as of 2000

• Plan now relaxed

• TFR = 1.5 (2013)

Government Policy and Fertility- Mexico

• Young age structure o Huge potential for population growth: 28% of population is

under age 15 • High population growth momentum

• 1974 - government imparted educational reform, family planning, health care o Very successful

o TFR dropped from 6.7 (1970) to 2.2 (2016)

Millennium Development Goals

• 189 heads of state met at U.N. Millennium Summit – address needs of impoverished (in 2000)

• Action plan –Millennium Development Goals

• Many goals, including: o End poverty in all its forms everywhere

o Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

o Ensure access to water and sanitation for all

o Reduce inequality within and among countries

o Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation

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