Chapter6PoliticsofPublicOpinion.pptx
Chapter 6: Politics of Public Opinion
Instructor Walter Pearn
Chapter Objectives
Define public opinion and political socialization.
Explain the process and role of political socialization in the U.S. political system.
Compare the ways in which citizens learn political information.
Explain how beliefs and ideology affect the formation of public opinion.
Explain how information about public opinion is gathered.
Identify common ways to measure and quantify public opinion.
Analyze polls to determine whether they accurately measure a population’s opinions.
Chapter Objectives
Explain why Americans hold a variety of views about politics, policy issues, and political institutions.
Identify factors that change public opinion.
Compare levels of public support for the branches of government.
Explain the circumstances that lead to public opinion affecting policy.
Compare the effects of public opinion on government branches and figures.
Identify situations that cause conflicts in public opinion.
What is public opinion
Public opinion is a collection of popular views about something, perhaps a person, a local or national event, or a new idea.
Most citizens base their political opinions on their beliefs. and their attitudes, both of which begin to form in childhood.
Beliefs are closely held ideas that support our values and expectations about life and politics.
Attitudes are also affected by our personal beliefs and represent the preferences we form based on our life experiences and values.
POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
Is the process by which we are trained to understand and join a country’s political world.
Like most forms of socialization, it starts when we are very young.
We may first become aware of politics by watching a parent or guardian vote, for instance, or by hearing presidents and candidates speak on television or the Internet, or seeing adults honor the American flag at an event.
We recite the Pledge of Allegiance and learn about the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, the two major political parties, the three branches of government, and the economic system.
Our political ideology, made up of the attitudes and beliefs that help shape our opinions on political theory and policy, is rooted in who we are as individuals.
Socialization Agents
Agent of political socialization is a source of political information intended to help citizens understand how to act in their political system and how to make decisions on political matters.
Most prominent agents of socialization are family and school.
Other influential agents are social groups, such as religious institutions and friends, and the media.
Diffuse support is characterized by a high level of stability in politics, acceptance of the government as legitimate, and a common goal of preserving the system.18 These traits keep a country steady, even during times of political or social upheaval.
Socialization Agents
Children of Democratic parents often become registered Democrats.
Children in Republican households often become Republicans.
Children living in households where parents do not display a consistent political party loyalty are less likely to be strong Democrats or strong Republicans, and instead are often independents.
Socialization Agents
Media information presented as fact can contain covert or overt political material.
Covert content is political information provided under the pretense that it is neutral.
Overt Content- is when the writer or publication makes clear to the reader or viewer that the information offers only one side of the political debate and political message.
Socialization and Ideology
Ideologies depend on attitudes and beliefs, and on the way, we prioritize each belief over the others.
Many think government should provide for the common defense, in the form of a national military.
They also argue that government should provide services to its citizens in the form of free education, unemployment benefits, and assistance for the poor.
Socialization and Ideology
Fascism is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe. The first fascist movements emerged in Italy during World War I, before spreading to other European countries. Opposed to liberalism, Marxism, and anarchism, fascism is placed on the far-right within the traditional left–right spectrum.
Socialization and Ideology
Fascism promotes total control of the country by the ruling party or political leader. This form of government will run the economy, the military, society, and culture, and often tries to control the private lives of its citizens.
Traditional conservatism supports the authority of the monarchy and the church, believing government provides the rule of law and maintains a society that is safe and organized.
Modern conservatism differs from traditional conservatism in assuming elected government will guard individual liberties and provide laws. Modern conservatives also prefer a smaller government that stays out of the economy, allowing the market and business to determine prices, wages, and supply.
Classical liberalism believes in individual liberties and rights. It is based on the idea of free will, that people are born equal with the right to make decisions without government intervention. It views government with suspicion, since history includes many examples of monarchs and leaders who limited citizens’ rights.
Modern liberalism focuses on equality and supports government intervention in society and the economy if it promotes equality. Liberals expect government to provide basic social and educational programs to help everyone have a chance to succeed.
Socialization and Ideology
Socialism the government uses its authority to promote social and economic equality within the country. Socialists believe government should provide everyone with expanded services and public programs, such as health care, subsidized housing and groceries, childhood education, and inexpensive college tuition.
Socialism sees the government as a way to ensure all citizens receive both equal opportunities and equal outcomes. Citizens with more wealth are expected to contribute more to the state’s revenue through higher taxes that pay for services provided to all. Socialist countries are also likely to have higher minimum wages than non-socialist countries.
Socialization and Ideology
Communism promotes common ownership of all property, means of production, and materials.
The government, or states, should own the property, farms, manufacturing, and businesses.
By controlling these aspects of the economy, Communist governments can prevent the exploitation of workers while creating an equal society.
The theory assumes the move to communism is supported and led by the proletariat, or the workers and citizens of a country. Human rights violations by governments of actual Communist countries make it appear the movement has been driven not by the people, but by leadership.
Polls
Random sample consists of a limited number of people from the overall population, selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen.
Representative sample consists of a group whose demographic distribution is similar to that of the overall population.
Margin of error is a number that states how far the poll results may be from the actual opinion of the total population of citizens.
Problems in Polling
Unless you conduct an exit poll during an election and interviewers stand at the polling places on Election Day to ask voters how they voted, there is always the possibility the poll results will be wrong.
The simplest reason is that if there is time between the poll and Election Day, a citizen might change his or her mind, lie, or choose not to vote at all. Timing is very important during elections, because surprise events can shift enough opinions to change an election result. Of course, there are many other reasons why polls, even those not time-bound by elections or events, may be inaccurate.
Leading Question
A leading question is a type of question that implies or contains its own answer.
By contrast, a neutral question is expressed in a way that doesn't suggest its own answer.
Leading questions can serve as a form of persuasion. They are rhetorical in the sense that the implied answers can be an attempt to shape or determine a response.
Examples of leading questions
Leading question: How dumb is (insert politician) when it comes to foreign policy? This immediately brings a negative connotation to the question.
Instead, you might ask the question: Please describe your politician’s position on foreign policy.
Leading question: Should concerned dog owners vaccinate their pets? By using the word concerned, you put pet owners who don’t vaccinate their pets on the defensive, thus creating bias.
Instead, ask it this way: Do you think dogs should be required to be vaccinated?
Bradley effect
People may feel social pressure to answer questions in accordance with the norms of their area or peers. If they are embarrassed to admit how they would vote, they may lie to the interviewer.
In the 1982 governor’s race in California, Tom Bradley was far ahead in the polls, yet on Election Day he lost. This result was nicknamed the Bradley effect, on the theory that voters who answered the poll were afraid to admit they would not vote for a black man because it would appear politically incorrect and racist.
In the 2016 presidential election, the level of support for Republican nominee Donald Trump may have been artificially low in the polls due to the fact that some respondents did not want to admit they were voting for Trump.
Push Polls
A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to manipulate or alter prospective voters' views under the guise of conducting an opinion poll.
Large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to actually collect and analyze voters' response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as an opinion poll.
Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll.
OPINIONS ABOUT POLITICS AND POLICIES
The United States is traditionally a two-party system.
Democrats and Republicans regularly win the presidency.
Few exceptions in Congress where there are Independents. Even though the politician identifies as an independent they choose to caucus with either the Democrats and Republicans.
Majority of voters cast ballots only for Republicans and Democrats, even when third parties are represented on the ballot.
32 percent identify as Democrats.
23 percent identify as Republicans.
Social policy
Social policy consists of government’s attempts to regulate public behavior in the service of a better society.
To what extent should the government intrude in the private lives of its citizens?
Abortion is a social policy.
Laws allowing same-sex marriage raise.
Regulation of gun ownership.
PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
The congressional and executive branches of government are the subject of much scrutiny and discussed daily in the media.
On average, presidents enjoy a 66 percent approval rating when starting office, but it drops to 53 percent by the end of the first term.
Presidents serving a second term average a beginning approval rating of 55.5 percent, which falls to 47 percent by the end of office.
PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
Congress as an institution has historically received lower approval ratings than presidents.
Individual senators and representatives are generally viewed favorably by their constituents.
While congressional representatives almost always win reelection and are liked by their constituents back home, the institution itself is often vilified as representing everything that is wrong with politics and partisanship.
As of August 2015, public approval of Congress sat at around 20 percent.
For most of the last forty years, congressional approval levels have bounced between 20 percent and 60 percent, but in the last fifteen years they have regularly fallen below 40 percent.
Theory of Delegate Representation
assumes the politician is in office to be the voice of the people.
If voters want the legislator to vote for legalizing marijuana, for example, the legislator should vote to legalize marijuana. Legislators or candidates who believe in delegate representation may poll the public before an important vote comes up for debate in order to learn what the public desires them to do.
Favorability Polls
Elections are events on which opinion polls have the greatest measured effect.
Public opinion polls do more than show how we feel on issues or project who might win an election.
They measure how positively voters felt about their candidate.
Bandwagon Effect/Horserace Coverage
Bandwagon Effect is when the media pays more attention to candidates who poll well during the fall and the first few primaries.
Horserace coverage is like an announcer at the racetrack, the media calls out every candidate’s move throughout the presidential campaign. Horserace coverage can be neutral, positive, or negative, depending upon what polls or facts are covered
Public Opinion and Government
Public opinion consists of the desires, wants and thinking of the majority of the people.
It is the collective opinion of the people of a society or state on an issue or problem.
This concept came about through the process of urbanization and other political and social forces.
For the first time, it became important what people thought as forms of political contention changed.
EXPERIENCES THAT AFFECT PUBLIC OPINION
Heuristics are shortcuts or rules of thumb (cues) for decision making.
Being part of a political party is one of the most common heuristics in voting.
Many voters join a political party whose platform aligns most closely with their political beliefs and voting for a candidate from that party simply makes sense.
A Republican candidate will likely espouse conservative beliefs, such as smaller government and lower taxes.
EXPERIENCES THAT AFFECT PUBLIC OPINION
The second method is to do research, learning background information before making a decision.
Candidates, parties, and campaigns put out a large array of information to sway potential voters, and the media provide wide coverage, all of which is readily available online and elsewhere.
Many voters are unwilling to spend the necessary time to research and instead vote with incomplete information.
EXPERIENCES THAT AFFECT PUBLIC OPINION
Gender, race, socio-economic status, and interest-group affiliation also serve as heuristics for decision making.
Voters may assume female candidates have a stronger understanding about social issues relevant to women.
Business owners may prefer to vote for a candidate with a college degree who has worked in business rather than a career politician.
Other voters may look to see which candidate is endorsed by the National Organization of Women (NOW), because NOW’s endorsement will ensure the candidate supports abortion rights.
Theory of delegate representation
Assumes the politician is in office to be the voice of the people.
If voters want the legislator to vote for legalizing marijuana, for example, the legislator should vote to legalize marijuana.
Legislators or candidates who believe in delegate representation may poll the public before an important vote comes up for debate in order to learn what the public desires them to do.
Political Culture/Political Elite
Political Culture- the prevailing political attitudes and beliefs within a society or region
Some political cultures stress citizen involvement whereas others try to exclude participation by the masses.
Political Elite- a political opinion leader who alerts the public to changes or problems.
Through a talk program or opinion column, the elite commentator tells people when and how to react to a current problem or issue. Millennials and members of Generation X (currently ages 38–53) long used Jon Stewart of The Daily Show and later Stephen Colbert of The Colbert Report as shortcuts to becoming informed about current events. In the same way, older generations trusted Tom Brokaw and 60 Minutes.
Political Culture
The political culture of a state can also have an effect on ideology and opinion.
States have unique cultures and that different state governments instilled different attitudes and beliefs in their citizens, creating political cultures.
Some states value tradition, and their laws try to maintain longstanding beliefs.
Other states believe government should help people and therefore create large bureaucracies that provide benefits to assist citizens.
Political Culture
State political cultures can affect the ideology and opinions of those who live in or move to them.
For example, opinions about gun ownership and rights vary from state to state.
Polls show that 61 percent of all Californians, regardless of ideology or political party, stated there should be more controls on who owns guns.
In contrast, Texas, support for the right to carry a weapon is high. Fifty percent of self-identified Democrats—who typically prefer more controls on guns rather than fewer—said Texans should be allowed to carry a concealed weapon if they have a permit.
In this case, state culture may have affected citizens’ feelings about the Second Amendment and moved them away from the expected ideological beliefs.
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