Data Excericse #2 Macroeconomics 2 page report and charts

Chapter 3 from Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

comprises public domain material from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department

of Commerce.

This reading is optional, the students will read it only if they are interested to know more than is

required by the course.

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CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

(Updated: November 2011)

Source data as determinants of initial release and revision schedules

Source data for the current quarterly estimates

Source data for the annual revisions

Source data for the comprehensive revisions

Source data are the information BEA uses to prepare the NIPA estimates, and

estimating methods are the steps BEA takes to transform the source data into these

estimates. The interaction of source data and estimating methods determines the

accuracy, reliability, and relevancy of the accounts.

The data that BEA uses are collected from a variety of sources and are usually

collected for purposes other than for incorporation into BEA's estimates. Data collected

by federal government agencies provide the backbone of the estimates; these data are

supplemented by data from trade associations, businesses, international organizations,

and other sources. The Government data are from a number of agencies, including the

Commerce Department's Census Bureau, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor

Statistics (BLS), the Treasury Department, the Office of Management and Budget, and

the Agriculture Department. “Administrative” data are data that are tabulated by federal

government and by state and local government agencies as a byproduct of administering

their programs—such as processing corporate tax returns, regulating public utilities, and

issuing building permits. “Statistical” data are data collected by the federal statistical

agencies, such as the Census Bureau and BLS. These data consist of periodic economic

and population censuses and a wide range of sample surveys, such as those that collect

data on manufacturing and trade, employment, and prices. The relatively few surveys that

BEA conducts cover international trade in services and international direct investment,

both by foreign companies in the United States and by U.S. companies in foreign

countries.

The source data available to BEA are not always ideal for the preparation of the

NIPAs. BEA must develop methods that transform the best available data into estimates

that are consistent with the NIPA concepts and framework and that fill gaps in the

coverage of the source data. (See “Chapter 4: Estimating Methods.”)

Source data as determinants of initial release and revision schedules

The availability of the source data is an important consideration in determining

the schedules for the initial release and the subsequent revisions of the NIPA estimates.

One factor affecting availability is the speed with which the source data are collected,

compiled, and released. Another factor is whether the source data are part of a statistical

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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program that, over time, provides more complete or otherwise better coverage—for

example, if the sample is larger or if more detailed information is collected for an annual

survey than for the monthly surveys.

In general, the most comprehensive source data for the expenditure components

of GDP are available at the 5-year intervals associated with the economic census of

establishments conducted by the Census Bureau. The economic census is the primary

data source for BEA’s input-output accounts, which are used to "benchmark" the NIPA

estimates for the quinquennial census years—most recently, 1997 and 2002. Related

annual surveys are drawn from samples of the establishments covered in the economic

census; these surveys generally collect less detailed data than those collected in the

economic census. Many of the annual surveys are supplemented by monthly surveys that

involve smaller samples and that collect less detailed data than the annual surveys. 1 In

addition, responding to the censuses and annual surveys is generally mandatory, while

responding to most of the quarterly and monthly surveys is voluntary.

The data from the monthly surveys are available first, and they provide much of

the information that is used to prepare the initial, or “current,” quarterly (and for a few

components, monthly) NIPA estimates. These estimates are subsequently revised as

additional reports become available from the monthly surveys. Annual revisions, which

are timed to incorporate newly available annual source data, are usually carried out each

summer. Comprehensive revisions, which incorporate the most complete source data as

well as other improvements to the accounts, are carried out at about 5-year intervals.

The following sections describe the most important federal government source

data that are used for the current quarterly estimates and for the annual and

comprehensive revisions of the NIPAs. In the preparation of the estimates, these sources

are augmented by a wealth of information from other public sources and from private

sources, such as trade associations.

Source data for the current quarterly estimates

Data from Census Bureau monthly surveys are among the primary sources for the

current quarterly estimates (table 3.1). For the most part, the samples for these voluntary

surveys are drawn from the economic census, from the corresponding annual surveys,

and from the Business Register; the samples are updated periodically to account for new

businesses (“births”) and for businesses that discontinue operations (“deaths”). 2

1 Many of the annual and monthly surveys are based on “probability sampling” (sometimes known as

“scientific sampling”). In this process, establishments are first placed into various “strata” on the basis of

their size. Depending on the distribution of establishments, an establishment in the largest strata could have

a 100-percent probability of selection and thus have a sampling weight of 1—that is, the establishment

would represent only itself. An establishment in a smaller stratum would have a smaller probability of

selection, say 1 percent, but in that case the establishment would have a sampling weight of 100—that is,

the sampled establishment would represent 100 establishments. 2 The Business Register is a comprehensive database of U.S. business establishments and companies that is

maintained by the Census Bureau for statistical program use. A “business” is defined as legal or

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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Table 3.1—Principal Sources for the Current Quarterly Estimates Source Agency

Monthly survey of manufacturers’ shipments,

inventories, and orders

Census Bureau

Monthly wholesale trade survey Census Bureau

Monthly retail trade and food services survey Census Bureau

Quarterly services survey Census Bureau

Monthly construction spending (value put in

place)

Census Bureau

Monthly U.S. international trade in goods and

services

Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic

Analysis

U.S. international transactions accounts Bureau of Economic Analysis

Annual projections and quarterly farm data Agriculture Department

Monthly current employment statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics

Quarterly financial report Census Bureau

Monthly treasury statement Treasury Department

Consumer price index Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer price index Bureau of Labor Statistics

International price indexes Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly Survey of Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) is a

Census Bureau survey of manufacturing companies. Although the survey is by company

rather than by establishment, most large, diversified companies file separate reports for

“divisions” with significant activity in different industrial areas. Data are collected on the

value of shipments, on total inventories and inventories by stage of fabrication, and on

new orders received and unfilled orders. These source data are primarily used in

estimating investment in private equipment and software, change in private inventories,

and nonfarm proprietors’ income. An advance report on durable-goods manufacturers’

shipments and orders is released about 3 ½–4 weeks after the close of the “reference”

month. 3 The composite M3 data are released about 5 weeks after the close of the

reference month.

Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS) is a Census Bureau sample survey of

companies that are primarily engaged in merchant wholesale trade (merchant wholesalers

that take title to the goods they sell—such as jobbers, industrial distributors, exporters,

and importers). Data are collected on the dollar values of wholesale sales and end-of-

month inventories. The MWTS data are primarily used in estimating change in private

inventories and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The MWTS reports are released about 6

weeks after the close of the reference month.

Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey is a Census Bureau sample

survey of companies that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Data

are collected on the dollar value of retail sales and end-of-month inventories. These

administrative entity that is assigned an employer identification number (EIN) by the Internal Revenue

Service. 3 The “reference” period (in this case month) is the period for which the data are collected.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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source data are primarily used in estimating personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

and change in private inventories. An advance report on monthly sales for retail and food

services (MARTS) is released about 1 ½–2 weeks after the close of the reference month.

The composite retail sales and inventories data are released about 6 weeks after the close

of the reference month.

Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) is a Census Bureau sample survey that was

initiated in 2003–2004 in order to improve the coverage of the service industries in the

U.S. economy. Since 2004, the QSS has collected data on total revenue for companies in

the following service sectors in the North American Industry Classification System:

information; professional, scientific, and technical; administrative and support and waste

management and remediation; and hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities. In

2009, coverage was expanded to the following services: transportation and warehousing;

rental and leasing; ambulatory health care; social assistance; arts, entertainment, and

recreation; other services (except public administration); and finance and insurance. The

QSS data are primarily used in estimating PCE and investment in private equipment and

software. The QSS data are released about 2 ½ months after the close of the reference

quarter.

Monthly construction spending (value put-in-place) is a Census Bureau measure

of the value of construction installed or erected during a given period. The data for

private nonresidential buildings, for government structures, and for multifamily

residential buildings are derived from data collected by sampling the owners of

construction projects. 4 The data for single-family residential buildings are derived

indirectly using information collected in a series of sample surveys that track the number

of housing-unit permits, starts, sales, and completions. The data for “other construction”

are derived from a variety of sources covering farm, utility, communication, and railroad

structures. These source data are primarily used in estimating private and government

investment in structures. The data for construction put-in-place are released about 1

month after the close of the reference month.

Monthly U.S. international trade in goods and services consist of Census Bureau

estimates of trade in goods and BEA estimates of trade in services. The Census Bureau

tabulations of exported and imported goods are from documents filed with Customs and

Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security; they cover all shipments

above a certain size and a sample of the remaining shipments. The BEA estimates are

primarily based on 11 mandatory BEA surveys of selected services receipts, payments,

and other data. These data are supplemented by a combination of monthly indicator

source data, partial data from U.S. government agencies and from foreign central

statistical offices and banks, and other secondary source data. These source data are

primarily used in estimating private investment in equipment and software and in

4 In contrast, the census of construction, which is part of the economic census, measures construction on the

basis of reports by establishments primarily engaged in construction. Thus, value put-in-place captures

some important parts of construction activity that are not included in the census—such as nonemployer

construction, architectural and engineering costs, own-account construction, homeowner construction, and

construction done as a secondary source of revenue by nonconstruction establishments.

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estimating exports and imports. The U.S. international trade statistics are jointly released

by the two agencies 6-7 weeks after the close of the reference month.

International Transactions Accounts (ITAs), prepared by BEA, summarize the

quarterly transactions between the United States and the rest of the world. In the ITAs,

the current account records exports and imports of goods and services, receipts and

payments of income on assets, and unilateral transfers (net gifts to other countries). In the

capital and financial account, the capital account records capital transfers (such as debt

forgiveness) and the financial account records transactions involving exchanges of

financial assets for other financial assets or for tangible resources and gifts or grants of

financial assets. These source data are primarily used in estimating corporate profits. The

ITAs are released about 2 ½ months after the close of the reference quarter.

Annual projections and quarterly farm data, from the U.S. Department of

Agriculture, consist of annual projections of crop output, quarterly projections of cash

receipts and of inventories for livestock, and annual projections of government subsidy

payments and production expenses for both crops and livestock. These data are primarily

used in estimating change in private inventories and farm proprietors’ income.

Monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey is a sample survey of

business establishments that is conducted by state employment security agencies in

cooperation with BLS. The CES (also known as BLS-790) covers payroll employment in

private nonagricultural industries during the pay period that includes the 12 th

of the

month. The data collected include series for total employment, number of production or

nonsupervisory workers, average hourly earnings, average weekly hours, average weekly

earnings, and average weekly overtime hours in manufacturing industries. (BLS has

developed experimental series that extend coverage to all employees and that include

irregular payments, such as bonuses.) These source data are primarily used in estimating

PCE, wages and salaries, and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The CES data are usually

released on the first Friday following the close of the reference month.

Quarterly Financial Report (QFR), prepared by the Census Bureau, provides

aggregate statistics on the financial position of U.S. corporations. Based on a sample

survey of firms above specified asset sizes, the QFR presents estimated statements of

income and retained earnings, balance sheets, and related financial and operating ratios

for manufacturing, mining, and trade corporations by industry and by asset size. These

source data are primarily used in estimating corporate profits. The QFR statistics for

manufacturing, mining, and wholesale trade are released about 2 ½ months after the close

of the reference quarter, and the statistics for retail trade are released about 1 month later.

Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), prepared by the Financial Management

Service of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, summarizes the financial activities of the

federal government and off-budget federal entities in accordance with the Budget of the

U.S. Government. The MTS presents a summary of receipts and outlays, surplus or

deficit, and means of financing. The data are provided by federal entities, disbursing

officers, and Federal Reserve Banks. These source data are primarily used in estimating

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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federal government receipts and expenditures and federal government consumption

expenditures and gross investment. The MTS is released about 2 weeks after the close of

the reference month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), prepared by BLS, is a family of indexes that

measure the average monthly change in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed

market basket of goods and services. The CPI covers “out-of-pocket” expenditures,

including user fees (such as water and sewer service) and sales and excise taxes paid by

the consumer but excluding income taxes and investment items (such as stocks, bonds,

and life insurance). The CPI is estimated from a statistical set of samples of urban areas,

of consumers within those areas, of retailers and other outlets, and of specific, unique

items purchased. CPIs are primarily used in deflating PCE, change in private inventories,

and state and local government purchases. The CPI is released 2–3 weeks after the close

of the reference month.

Producer Price Index (PPI), prepared by BLS, is a family of indexes that measure

the average monthly change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and

services. Thus, the PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller rather

than the purchaser. The PPI covers practically the entire output of domestic goods-

producing sectors and is expanding its coverage of services and other non-goods-

producing sectors. The PPI is estimated from data collected from a sample of

establishments that participate in the Unemployment Insurance System, a joint federal

and state program that covers about 97 percent of wage and salary workers. PPIs are

primarily used in deflating private investment in equipment and software and in

structures, change in private inventories, government purchases, and exports and imports.

The PPI is released about 2 weeks after the close of the reference month.

International Price Indexes, prepared by BLS, measure monthly changes in the

prices of goods and services that are sold by U.S. producers to foreign buyers (exports)

and that are purchased from abroad by U.S. buyers (imports). The price indexes for

exports of goods to Canada are based primarily on sampling information obtained from

the Canadian Customs Service, and the indexes for exports of goods to other countries

are based on sampling information obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. The price

indexes for imports of goods are based on sampling information obtained from Customs

and Border Protection, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The price indexes for

exports and imports of services are based on sampling information that is developed

separately for each service category. These price indexes are primarily used in deflating

private investment in equipment and software, change in private inventories, and exports

and imports. The international price indexes are released about 2 weeks after the close of

the reference month.

Estimating schedule

For GDP and most other NIPA series, the estimates for each quarter are prepared

on a schedule that calls for three successive "current" estimates—"advance," "second,"

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

3-7

and "third." 5 The specific release date for each month is primarily determined by the

availability of the monthly reports on retail sales, manufacturing shipments, and

international trade in goods from the Census Bureau (along with the time it takes BEA to

process them).

 The advance quarterly estimate of GDP is released near the end of the month that follows the close of the reference quarter. For most of the product-side

components, the estimate is based on source data for either 2 or 3 months of the

quarter. In most cases, however, the source data for the second and third months

of the quarter are subject to revision by the issuing agencies. Where source data

are not available, the estimate is based primarily on BEA projections. For an

example of how this information is provided in the Survey of Current Business,

see the box “Summary of Source Data for the Advance Estimates of GDP” on

page 8 (which was adapted from “GDP and the Economy” in the August 2008

Survey).

 One month later, the advance estimate is replaced by the second estimate, which is typically based on source data for all 3 months of the quarter. However, in

some instances, the source data used for the second estimate, particularly the data

for the third month of the quarter, are subject to further revision.

 One month later, the second estimate is replaced by the third estimate, which incorporates revisions to source data for the third month of the quarter and newly

available quarterly source data for some components.

For certain “income-side” series—gross national product, gross domestic income,

national income, and corporate profits—“advance” estimates are not prepared, because of

a lag in the availability of source data. For the first, second, and third quarters of the year,

the release of the second GDP estimate presents the initial estimates for these income-

side series, and the third GDP release presents revised estimates. For the fourth quarter,

the estimates for these series are presented only in the third GDP release.

In addition, when the second estimate of GDP for the current quarter is released,

the preceding quarter’s estimates of private wages and salaries and affected income-side

aggregates are revised to incorporate newly available preliminary tabulations from the

BLS quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW).6 (For a description of the

QCEW, see the section on source data for annual revisions.)

5 In the 2009 comprehensive revision of the NIPAs, BEA introduced new names for the second two

vintages of the current quarterly estimates. Formerly, the “second” estimate was known as the

“preliminary” estimate, and the “third” estimate” was known as the “final” estimate. The initial estimate

continues to be named the “advance” estimate. (See Eugene P. Seskin and Shelly Smith, “Preview of the

2009 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPAs: Changes in Definitions and Presentations,” Survey of Current

Business 89 (March 2009): 19–20.) 6 Affected aggregates include gross domestic income, the statistical discrepancy, gross national income,

national income, personal income, disposable personal income, personal saving, gross (national) saving,

compensation, and gross product of corporate business. Other components that are closely linked to wages

and salaries, such as personal current taxes and employer contributions for government social insurance,

are also revised. Product-side series, including GDP, are not affected.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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Summary of Source Data for the Advance Estimates of GDP:

Second Quarter of 2008

The advance estimates of many components of GDP are based on 3 months of

data, but the estimates of some components are based on only 2 months of source data.

For the following items, the number of months for which source data are available is

shown in parentheses.

Personal consumption expenditures: sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and

truck sales (3), and consumer’ shares of auto and truck sales (2);

Nonresidential fixed investment: unit auto and truck sales (3), construction put

in place (2), manufacturers’ shipments of machinery and equipment other than aircraft

(3), shipments of civilian aircraft (2), and exports and imports of machinery and

equipment (2);

Residential investment: construction put in place (2), single-family housing

starts (3), sales of new homes (2), and sales of existing houses (3);

Change in private inventories: trade and nondurable goods manufacturing

inventories (2), durable goods manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck

inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: exports and imports of goods and services

(2);

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: federal outlays

(3), state and local construction put in place (2), and state and local employment (3);

Compensation of employees: employment, average hourly earnings, and

average weekly hours (3);

GDP prices: consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), and

values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

Unavailable source data

When source data were unavailable, BEA made various assumptions for the

third month—June—including the following:

 Decreases in nonresidential structures, in aircraft shipments, and in single-

family residential structures, and no change in multifamily residential

structures,

 Increases in nondurable-goods manufacturing inventories and in nonmotor

vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories, and

 A smaller increase in exports of goods excluding gold than in imports

excluding gold.

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Source-data categories

The source data used to prepare the quarterly estimates of the product-side

components of GDP can be grouped into four general categories based on their quality,

availability, and use. 7

 Revised monthly or quarterly data are based on revised monthly or quarterly source data; they are presumed to be more accurate than preliminary data.

 Initial monthly or quarterly data include either monthly data for all 3 months of a quarter or data for a complete quarter.

 Monthly data and trend-based data typically include source data for the first 2 months but limited or no data for the third month; for the third month, BEA

makes a projection based on various assumptions.

 Trend-based data are typically projections that are calculated by BEA using previous estimates and trends, moving averages of various lengths, regressions,

and judgment by BEA economists.

For the advance GDP estimate, initial monthly or quarterly data account for 46

percent of the source data used to calculate the estimates. Monthly data and trend-based

data account for 30 percent, and trend-based data account for the remainder. (See chart

3.1 on the next page).

For the second and third GDP estimates, most of the monthly data and trend-

based data are replaced by revised monthly or quarterly data, which are generally

considered more accurate. The revised data account for 72 percent of the source data for

those estimates. For the second estimate, most of the remainder is accounted for by trend-

based data, at 24 percent. For the third estimate, however, most of the remainder is

accounted for by initial monthly or quarterly data, at 20 percent.

The estimates of new residential structures provide an example of the progression

of source data from the advance quarterly estimate to the third quarterly estimate. The

advance estimate of new residential structures incorporates source data for the first and

second months of the quarter and an assumption for the third month; these source data are

categorized as monthly data and trend-based data. The second estimate incorporates

revised data for the first and second months and newly available data for the third month;

these source data are categorized as revised monthly or quarterly data. The third estimate

incorporates data for the second and third months that are revised further; these source

data are also categorized as revised monthly or quarterly data.

7 For more information, see Bruce T. Grimm and Teresa L. Weadock, “Gross Domestic Product: Revisions

and Source Data,” Survey 86 (February 2006): 11–15.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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Chart 3.1— Shares of Source Data for the Quarterly GDP Estimates

Source data for the annual revisions

Annual revisions of the NIPAs are usually released in July and cover the months

and quarters of the most recent calendar year and of the 2 preceding years. 8 The NIPA

estimates for the most recent calendar year are revised to incorporate revisions that result

from annual benchmarking of some of the principal monthly or quarterly source data. The

NIPA estimates for all 3 years are revised to incorporate a broad range of newly available

and revised annual source data (table 3.2). For the expenditures components, the newly

available source data include annual surveys conducted by the Census Bureau. For the

income components, the newly available source data include IRS tabulations of income

tax returns and BLS tabulations of employment and wage information.

8 Starting in 2010, BEA instituted a “flexible” approach to annual revisions that allows for the

incorporation of improvements in methodology and for the extension of the 3-year revision period to earlier

periods; see “BEA Briefing: Improving BEA’s Accounts Through Flexible Annual Revisions,” Survey 88

(June 2008): 29–32.

ADVANCE ESTIMATE

Trend-based data

23.7%

M onthly and trend-

based data 30.1%

Initial monthly or

quarterly data

46.2%

SECOND ESTIMATE

Trend-based

data 23.7%

Monthly and

trend-based data

0.4%

Revised data

71.7%

Initial monthly or

quarterly data

4.2%

THIRD ESTIMATE

Trend-based data

8.5%

Revised data 71.7%

Initial monthly or

quarterly data

19.8%

FIRST ANNUAL ESTIMATE

Revised data

45.1%Annual data

52.6%

Trend-based data

2.3%

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

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Table 3.2—Principal Newly Available Sources for NIPA Annual Revisions Source Agency

Annual survey of manufactures Census Bureau

Annual wholesale trade survey Census Bureau

Annual retail trade survey Census Bureau

Service annual survey Census Bureau

Annual surveys of state and local government

finances

Census Bureau

Annual revision of the international transactions

accounts

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Annual farm statistics Agriculture Department

Quarterly census of employment and wages Bureau of Labor Statistics

Tabulations of tax returns Internal Revenue Service

Federal government annual budget Office of Management and Budget

The first four sources listed in table 3.2 are the annual counterparts of the Census

Bureau monthly surveys used for the current quarterly estimates. The more extensive

annual survey samples are from companies listed in the Business Register, and the

recipients are selected by stratified probability sampling. Response to these surveys is

mandatory. New samples are usually selected after each economic census, and the

samples are updated periodically to reflect business “births” and “deaths.”

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) is a Census Bureau survey of

manufacturing establishments with paid employees. The ASM is conducted in the years

between the economic census—that is, in all years not ending in 2 or 7. Data are collected

on employment, payroll, value added by manufacture, materials consumed, value of

shipments, detailed capital expenditures, supplemental labor costs, fuels and electric

energy used, and inventories by stage of fabrication. These source data are primarily used

in estimating private investment in equipment and software, change in private

inventories, and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The ASM data are published about 11

months after the close of the reference year.

Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS) is a Census Bureau survey of

companies that have significant activity in wholesale trade. These companies include

wholesalers that take title of the goods they sell—such as jobbers, industrial distributors,

exporters, importers, and manufacturer sales branches and offices (MSBOs)—and,

beginning in 2007, wholesalers that do not take title—such as agents, merchandise and

commodity brokers, commission merchants, and electronic business-to-business

marketers. Merchant wholesalers excluding MSBOs provide data on sales, inventories,

inventory valuation, purchases, and gross margin. MSBOs provide data on sales,

inventories, inventory valuation, and operating expenses. The wholesalers that do not

take title provide data on sales, commissions earned, gross selling value of sales

conducted for others, and operating expenses. The AWTS data are primarily used in

estimating change in private inventories and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The statistics

for all wholesalers are normally published about 15 months following the close of the

reference year.

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3-12

Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) is a Census Bureau survey of retail

companies with one or more establishments that sell merchandise and associated services

to final consumers. The survey is sent to a sample of retail establishments with paid

employees, and the data collected are supplemented by administrative data to account for

businesses without paid employees. The ARTS collects data on the dollar value of retail

sales, sales taxes collected, inventories, inventory valuation, cost of purchases, and

accounts receivables balances. These source data are primarily used in estimating PCE

and change in private inventories. The statistics are normally published about 15 months

following the close of the reference year.

Service Annual Survey (SAS) is a Census Bureau survey of companies that

provide services to individuals, businesses, and governments. The survey is sent to

selected businesses with paid employees, and the data collected are supplemented by

administrative data or imputed values to account for businesses without paid employees

and for certain other businesses. The data collected include operating revenue for both

taxable and tax-exempt firms and organizations, sources of revenue, exports, and

inventories for selected industries, and selected industry-specific items. The SAS data are

primarily used in estimating PCE and private investment in equipment and software. The

statistics are normally published about 12 months after the close of the reference year.

Annual surveys of state and local government finances, prepared by the Census

Bureau, provide data on the financial activities of state governments and of local

governments, including counties, municipalities, townships, special districts, and school

districts. The data are compiled from three sources: an enumeration of all 50 states, a

probability sample survey of local governments, and data from federal government

agencies. Reported data are for each government’s annual accounting period (fiscal year)

that ends on or before June 30 of the survey year. Data are obtained for revenue,

expenditure, debt, and financial assets. These source data are primarily used in estimating

state and local government spending, employee compensation, and taxes on production

and imports. The data are available about 12 months after the close of the survey year.

Annual revision of the international transactions accounts (ITAs), prepared by

BEA, incorporates newly available annual source data and statistical, methodological,

and presentational improvements into the accounts, which may result in revisions that

extend back for a number of years. 9 (The ITAs were described in the preceding section on

sources for the current quarterly estimates.) These source data are primarily used in

estimating private investment in equipment and software, exports of goods and services,

and imports of goods and services. The annual revision of the ITAs is released in mid-

June.

Annual farm statistics are collected in the Agricultural Resource Management

Survey (ARMS), which is sponsored jointly by the Economic Research Service and the

National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The

ARMS starts in the fall with the collection of data on crop production and costs and

finishes in the spring with the collection of data on whole farm and livestock production

9 For a description of an annual revision of the ITAs, see the most recent July issue of the Survey.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

3-13

practices and costs. The data, which underpin USDA’s annual estimates of net farm

income, cover virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture, including production and

supplies, prices paid and received, farm labor and wages, and farm finances. These

source data are primarily used in estimating change in private inventories and farm

proprietors’ income. The ARMS data are available in the fall following the close of the

reference year.

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is a cooperative program

(also known as the ES-202 program) involving BLS and the state employment security

agencies. The QCEW produces a comprehensive tabulation of employment and wage

information for workers who are covered by state unemployment insurance programs or

by the unemployment insurance program for federal employees; these workers represent

over 95 percent of civilian wage and salary employment. These source data are primarily

used in estimating PCE, wages and salaries, and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The

QCEW data are usually released to the public 6 to 7 months after the close of the

reference quarter. 10

Tabulations of tax returns, prepared by the IRS Statistics of Income program, are

compilations of information from the tax returns of corporations and of sole

proprietorships and partnerships. The aggregate data are compiled based on stratified

probability samples of tax or information returns. The data collected include by-industry

information on assets, business receipts and deductions, and net income. The source data

are primarily used in estimating corporate profits and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The

data for nonfarm sole proprietorships and partnerships are released to the public about 1

½–1 ¾ years after the end of the tax year, and the data for corporations are released to the

public about 1 ¾ years after the end of the tax year. 11

Federal government annual budget, a report prepared by the Office of

Management and Budget, presents preliminary estimates of U.S. Government receipts

and expenditures for the current fiscal year (October 1 through September 30) and

revised data for the preceding fiscal year, as well as the President’s proposed budget for

the upcoming fiscal year. Data are provided on budget receipts by source, such as

individual and corporate income taxes, and on budget outlays by function, such as

national defense and Medicare. These source data are primarily used in estimating federal

government spending and wages and salaries. The report is usually released in early

February.

10

As noted in footnote 6, some preliminary information from the QCEW is incorporated into the quarterly

estimates on a delayed basis. However, the annual NIPA revision provides the opportunity for a more

complete incorporation of these data. 11

For corporations, the tax year covers tax returns that are filed for accounting periods ending in July of

one year through June of the following year; for most corporations, the accounting period coincides with

the calendar year.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

3-14

Source data for the comprehensive revisions

Comprehensive revisions of the NIPAs are carried out about every 5 years, and

they may result in revisions that extend back for many years. These revisions are timed to

incorporate the infrequent but most comprehensive source data, and they also provide the

opportunity to incorporate definitional, statistical, and presentational improvements to the

accounts. Generally, comprehensive revisions replace the annual revision that would

normally take place in that year, and so they also incorporate the source data that would

normally be incorporated in the annual revision. The most important source for the

comprehensive revision is BEA’s benchmark input-output tables, which, in turn, are

primarily based on the detailed information collected in the economic census conducted

by the Census Bureau (table 3.3). 12

Table 3.3—Principal Newly Available Sources for NIPA Comprehensive Revisions Source Agency

Benchmark input-output accounts Bureau of Economic Analysis

Economic census Census Bureau

Census of governments Census Bureau

Benchmark Input-Output (I-O) Accounts, prepared by BEA, are U.S. economic

accounts that provide detailed statistics on economic processes and the relationships

between various industries in the U.S. economy. The core of the I-O accounts consists of

the “make” table, which shows the value of each commodity produced by each industry,

and the “use” table, which shows the consumption of each commodity by each industry

or final user. The benchmark I-O accounts, which are prepared at about 5-year intervals,

incorporate a vast amount of source data, the most important of which are data from the

economic census. The I-O account estimates are used extensively as benchmarks for

many of the corresponding NIPA estimates, but I-O accounts also directly incorporate

some of the NIPA estimates, such as the estimates for owner-occupied housing and for

motor vehicles. The benchmark I-O accounts are usually released about 5 years after the

reference year for the economic census.

Economic Census conducted by the Census Bureau, is a mandatory census that

provides a detailed portrait of the nation’s economy once every 5 years. 13

The economic

census consists of several censuses that cover nearly all private industries, including

manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, construction, transportation, information,

services, and finance and insurance. 14

In the 2002 Economic Census, report forms were

sent to the establishments of all large employers (all multi-establishment firms and all

firms with a payroll above a specified cutoff) and to a stratified sample of small

12

For example, see Kurt Kunze and Stephanie H. McCulla, “Preview of Revised NIPA Estimates for 2002:

Effects of Incorporating the 2002 Benchmark I-O Accounts and Proposed Definitional and Statistical

Changes,” Survey 88 (March 2008): 10–17. 13

See “Economic Census” at www.census.gov/econ/census02. 14

Prior to the 1997 Economic Census, these censuses were referred to in the plural—that is, as “economic

censuses”—because they were considered to be compilations of distinct censuses for each major industry.

CHAPTER 3: PRINCIPAL SOURCE DATA

3-15

employers (single-establishment firms with payroll below the cutoff). Statistics for

selected small employers (for example, those with fewer than 10 employees) and all firms

without employees were compiled from administrative records of the IRS and other

federal government agencies. The economic census is the most important data source for

the benchmark I-O accounts. Results from the economic census are released over a period

of several years.

Census of Governments, which is conducted by the Census Bureau in the same

years as the economic census, is a voluntary census that provides periodic and

comprehensive statistics about governments and governmental activities. The census

covers all state and local governments, including counties, cities, townships, special

districts, and school districts. Data are collected on revenues, expenditures, debt, assets,

employees, payroll, and benefits for the individual fiscal year that ended prior to July 1 of

the census year. These source data are primarily used in estimating state and local

government spending. The financial data are released beginning about 16 months after

the close of the census year, and the employment data are released beginning about 12

months after the close of the census year.