Operation Management

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Chapter3PPTBU510.ppt

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Project Management

3

PowerPoint presentation to accompany

Heizer and Render

Operations Management, Eleventh Edition

Principles of Operations Management, Ninth Edition

PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl

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Outline

Global Company Profile:
Bechtel Group

The Importance of Project Management

Project Planning

Project Scheduling

Project Controlling

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Outline - Continued

Project Management Techniques: PERT and CPM

Determining the Project Schedule

Variability in Activity Times

Cost-Time Trade-offs and Project Crashing

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Outline - Continued

A Critique of PERT and CPM

Using Microsoft Project to Manage Projects

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When you complete this chapter you should be able to:

Learning Objectives

  • Use a Gantt chart for scheduling
  • Draw AOA and AON networks
  • Complete forward and backward passes for a project
  • Determine a critical path

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Learning Objectives

Calculate the variance of activity times

Crash a project

When you complete this chapter you should be able to:

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Bechtel Projects

Constructing 30 high-security data centers worldwide for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)

Building and running a rail line between London and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)

Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea region to Russia ($850 million)

Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600 million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion)

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Bechtel Projects

Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen ($2 billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)

Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6 billion)

Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand ($700 million)

Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company that sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)

Building a highway to link the north and south of Croatia ($303 million)

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Importance of
Project Management

Bechtel Project Management

International workforce, construction professionals, cooks, medical personnel, security

Strategic value of time-based competition

Quality mandate for continual improvement

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Single unit

Many related activities

Difficult production planning and inventory control

General purpose equipment

High labor skills

Project Characteristics

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Examples of Projects

  • Building Construction
  • Research Project

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Management of Projects

Planning - goal setting, defining the project, team organization

Scheduling - relate people, money, and supplies to specific activities and activities to each other

Controlling - monitor resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revise plans and shift resources to meet time and cost demands

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  • Planning
  • Objectives
  • Resources
  • Work break-down structure
  • Organization
  • Scheduling
  • Project activities
  • Start & end times
  • Network
  • Controlling
  • Monitor, compare, revise, action

Project Management Activities

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1

Budgets

Delayed activities report

Slack activities report

Time/cost estimates

Budgets

Engineering diagrams

Cash flow charts

Material availability details

CPM/PERT

Gantt charts

Milestone charts

Cash flow schedules

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Establishing objectives

Defining project

Creating work breakdown structure

Determining
resources

Forming organization

Project Planning

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Often temporary structure

Uses specialists from entire company

Headed by project manager

Coordinates activities

Monitors schedule
and costs

Permanent
structure called
‘matrix organization’

Project Organization

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Project Organization
Works Best When

Work can be defined with a specific goal and deadline

The job is unique or somewhat unfamiliar to the existing organization

The work contains complex interrelated tasks requiring specialized skills

The project is temporary but critical to the organization

The project cuts across organizational lines

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A Sample Project Organization

Figure 3.2

Technician

Project No. 2

Project

Manager

Electrical

Engineer

Computer
Engineer

Test

Engineer

Mechanical

Engineer

Project No. 1

Project

Manager

Technician

Marketing

Finance

Human

Resources

Design

Quality

Mgt

Production

President

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Matrix Organization

Marketing Operations Engineering Finance

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4

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The Role of
the Project Manager

Highly visible

Responsible for making sure that:

  • All necessary activities are finished in order and on time
  • The project comes in within budget
  • The project meets quality goals
  • The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information

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The Role of
the Project Manager

Highly visible

Responsible for making sure that:

  • All necessary activities are finished in order and on time
  • The project comes in within budget
  • The project meets quality goals
  • The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information

Project managers should be:

  • Good coaches
  • Good communicators
  • Able to organize activities from a variety of disciplines

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Ethical Issues

  • Offers of gifts from contractors
  • Pressure to alter status reports to mask delays
  • False reports for charges of time and expenses
  • Pressure to compromise quality to meet schedules
  • Project managers face many ethical decisions on a daily basis
  • The Project Management Institute has established an ethical code to deal with problems such as:

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Work Breakdown Structure

Level

1. Project

2. Major tasks in the project

3. Subtasks in the major tasks

4. Activities (or “work packages”)
to be completed

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Work Breakdown Structure

Figure 3.3

Level 4

Compatible with Windows 7

Compatible with Windows Vista

Compatible with Windows XP

1.1.2.3

1.1.2.2

1.1.2.1

(Work packages)

Level 3

Develop GUIs

Design Cost Tracking Reports

Module Testing

Ensure Compatibility with Earlier Versions

Develop Cost/Schedule Interface

Defect Testing

1.1.1

1.2.2

1.3.2

1.3.1

1.2.1

1.1.2

Level 2

Software Design

Cost Management Plan

System Testing

1.1

1.2

1.3

Level 1

Develop Windows 8 Operating System

1.0

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Project Scheduling Techniques

Ensure that all activities
are planned for

Their order of
performance is
accounted for

The activity time
estimates are recorded

The overall project time is developed

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Purposes of Project Scheduling

Shows the relationship of each activity to others and to the whole project

Identifies the precedence relationships among activities

Encourages the setting of realistic time and cost estimates for each activity

Helps make better use of people, money, and material resources by identifying critical bottlenecks in the project

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Gantt chart

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Project Management Techniques

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A Simple Gantt Chart

Time

J F M A M J J A S

Design

Prototype

Test

Revise

Production

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Service For a Delta Jet

Figure 3.4

Passengers

Baggage

Fueling

Cargo and mail

Galley servicing

Lavatory servicing

Drinking water

Cabin cleaning

Cargo and mail

Flight services

Operating crew

Baggage

Passengers

Deplaning

Baggage claim

Container offload

Pumping

Engine injection water

Container offload

Main cabin door

Aft cabin door

Aft, center, forward

Loading

First-class section

Economy section

Container/bulk loading

Galley/cabin check

Receive passengers

Aircraft check

Loading

Boarding

0 10 20 30 40

Time, Minutes

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Project Controlling

Close monitoring of resources, costs, quality, budgets

Feedback enables revising the project plan and shift resources

Computerized tools produce extensive reports

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Project Management Software

There are several popular packages for managing projects

Primavera

MacProject

MindView

HP Project

Fast Track

Microsoft Project

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Project Control Reports

Detailed cost breakdowns for each task

Total program labor curves

Cost distribution tables

Functional cost and hour summaries

Raw materials and expenditure forecasts

Variance reports

Time analysis reports

Work status reports

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Network techniques

Developed in 1950s

CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)

PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)

Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies

Each uses a different estimate of activity times

PERT and CPM

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Six Steps PERT & CPM

Define the project and prepare the work breakdown structure

Develop relationships among the activities - decide which activities must precede and which must follow others

Draw the network connecting all of the activities

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Six Steps PERT & CPM

Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity

Compute the longest time path through the network – this is called the critical path

Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project

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  • When will the entire project be completed?
  • What are the critical activities or tasks in the project?
  • Which are the noncritical activities?
  • What is the probability the project will be completed by a specific date?

Questions PERT & CPM
Can Answer

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  • Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of schedule?
  • Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the budget?
  • Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time?
  • If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?

Questions PERT & CPM
Can Answer

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A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions

Activity on Activity Activity on

Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A comes before B, which comes before C

(a)

A

B

C

B

A

C

A and B must both be completed before C can start

(b)

A

C

C

B

A

B

B and C cannot begin until A is completed

(c)

B

A

C

A

B

C

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A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions

Activity on Activity Activity on

Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A

B

C

D

B

A

C

D

C and D cannot begin until both A and B are completed

(d)

C

A

B

D

Dummy activity

A

B

C

D

C cannot begin until both A and B are completed

D cannot begin until B is completed

A dummy activity is introduced in AOA

(e)

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A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions

Activity on Activity Activity on

Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A

C

D

B

A

B

C

D

Dummy activity

B and C cannot begin until A is completed

D cannot begin until both B and C are completed

A dummy activity is again introduced in AOA

(f)

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AON Example

Table 3.1 Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing’s Activities and Predecessors
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION IMMEDIATE PREDECESSORS
A Build internal components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G

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AON Network for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.5

A

Start

B

Start Activity

Activity A

(Build Internal Components)

Activity B

(Modify Roof and Floor)

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AON Network for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.6

C

D

A

Start

B

Activity A Precedes Activity C

Activities A and B Precede Activity D

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AON Network for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.7

G

E

F

H

C

A

Start

D

B

Arrows Show Precedence Relationships

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AOA Network for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.8

H

(Inspect/ Test)

7

Dummy Activity

6

F

(Install Controls)

E

(Build Burner)

G

(Install Pollution Device)

5

D

(Pour Concrete/ Install Frame)

4

C

(Construct Stack)

1

3

2

B

(Modify Roof/Floor)

A

(Build Internal Components)

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Determining the Project Schedule

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

  • The critical path is the longest path through the network
  • The critical path is the shortest time in which the project can be completed
  • Any delay in critical path activities delays the project
  • Critical path activities have no slack time

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Determining the Project Schedule

Table 3.2 Time Estimates for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION TIME (WEEKS)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total time (weeks) 25

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Determining the Project Schedule

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at which an activity can start, assuming all predecessors have been completed

Earliest finish (EF) = earliest time at which an activity can be finished

Latest start (LS) = latest time at which an activity can start so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project

Latest finish (LF) = latest time by which an activity has to be finished so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project

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Determining the Project Schedule

Activity Format

Figure 3.9

Activity Name or Symbol

A

Earliest Start

ES

Earliest Finish

EF

Latest Start

LS

Latest Finish

LF

Activity Duration

2

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Forward Pass

Begin at starting event and work forward

Earliest Start Time Rule:

  • If an activity has only a single immediate predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the predecessor
  • If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors

ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}

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Forward Pass

Earliest Finish Time Rule:

  • The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity time

EF = ES + Activity time

Begin at starting event and work forward

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

Start

0

0

ES

0

EF = ES + Activity time

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

EF of A =
ES of A + 2

0

ES
of A

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

B

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

3

EF of B =
ES of B + 3

0

ES
of B

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

*

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

D

4

= Max (2, 3)

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

*

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ES/EF Network for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.10

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

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Backward Pass

Begin with the last event and work backwards

Latest Finish Time Rule:

  • If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately follows it
  • If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities that immediately follow it

LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}

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Backward Pass

Begin with the last event and work backwards

Latest Start Time Rule:

  • The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time

LS = LF – Activity time

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LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

LF = EF
of Project

15

13

LS = LF – Activity time

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LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

13

15

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

LF = Min(LS of following activity)

10

13

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LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

13

15

10

13

8

13

4

8

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

LF = Min(4, 10)

4

2

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LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

13

15

10

13

8

13

4

8

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

4

2

8

4

2

0

4

1

0

0

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Computing Slack Time

After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for all activities, compute the slack or free time for each activity

  • Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

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Computing Slack Time

TABLE 3.3 Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule and Slack Times
ACTIVITY EARLIEST START ES EARLIEST FINISH EF LATEST START LS LATEST FINISH LF SLACK LS – ES ON CRITICAL PATH
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

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Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

13

15

10

13

8

13

4

8

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

4

2

8

4

2

0

4

1

0

0

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ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper

A Build internal components

B Modify roof and floor

C Construct collection stack

D Pour concrete and install frame

E Build high-temperature burner

F Install pollution control system

G Install air pollution device

H Inspect and test

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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LS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper

A Build internal components

B Modify roof and floor

C Construct collection stack

D Pour concrete and install frame

E Build high-temperature burner

F Install pollution control system

G Install air pollution device

H Inspect and test

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each activity and there is no variability in activity times

PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to allow for variability

Variability in Activity Times

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Three time estimates are required

Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes according to plan

Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions

Most likely time (m) – most realistic estimate

Variability in Activity Times

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Estimate follows beta distribution

Variability in Activity Times

Expected time:

Variance of times:

t = (a + 4m + b)/6

v = [(b – a)/6]2

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Estimate follows beta distribution

Variability in Activity Times

Expected time:

Variance of times:

t = (a + 4m + b)/6

v = [(b − a)/6]2

Figure 3.11

Probability of 1 in 100 of
< a occurring

Probability of 1 in 100 of > b occurring

Probability

Optimistic Time (a)

Most Likely Time (m)

Pessimistic Time (b)

Activity Time

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Computing Variance

TABLE 3.4 Time Estimates (in weeks) for Milwaukee Paper’s Project
ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC a MOST LIKELY m PESSIMISTIC b EXPECTED TIME t = (a + 4m + b)/6 VARIANCE [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 .11
B 2 3 4 3 .11
C 1 2 3 2 .11
D 2 4 6 4 .44
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.78
G 3 4 11 5 1.78
H 1 2 3 2 .11

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Probability of Project Completion

Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities

s2 = Project variance

= (variances of activities
on critical path)

p

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Probability of Project Completion

Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities

Project variance

s2 = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation

sp = Project variance

= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks

p

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Probability of Project Completion

PERT makes two more assumptions:

  • Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution
  • Activity times are statistically independent

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Probability of Project Completion

Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

Figure 3.12

15 Weeks

(Expected Completion Time)

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Probability of Project Completion

What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline?

Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date

Z = – /sp

= (16 weeks – 15 weeks)/1.76

= 0.57

Due Expected date
date of completion

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Probability of Project Completion

What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline?

Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date

Z = − /sp

= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57

due expected date
date of completion

.00 .01 .07 .08

.1 .50000 .50399 .52790 .53188

.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142

.5 .69146 .69497 .71566 .71904

.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175

From Appendix I

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Probability of Project Completion

Figure 3.13

Time

Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

0.57 Standard deviations

15 16
Weeks Weeks

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Determining Project Completion Time

Figure 3.14

Probability of 0.01

Z

From Appendix I

Probability of 0.99

2.33 Standard deviations

0

2.33

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Variability of Completion Time for Noncritical Paths

Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time

Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path

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What Project Management Has Provided So Far

The project’s expected completion time is 15 weeks

There is a 71.57% chance the equipment will be in place by the 16 week deadline

Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on the critical path

Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the critical path and have slack time

A detailed schedule is available

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Cost–Time Trade-Offs and Project Crashing

It is not uncommon to face the following situations:

  • The project is behind schedule
  • The completion time has been moved forward

Shortening the duration of the project is called project crashing

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Factors to Consider When Crashing a Project

The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact, permissible

Taken together, the shortened activity durations will enable us to finish the project by the due date

The total cost of crashing is as small as possible

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Steps in Project Crashing

  • Using current activity times, find the critical path and identify the critical activities

(Crash cost – Normal cost)

(Normal time – Crash time)

Crash cost

per period

=

  • Compute the crash cost per time period. If crash costs are linear over time:

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Steps in Project Crashing

If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. If there is more than one critical path, then select one activity from each critical path such that (a) each selected activity can still be crashed, and (b) the total crash cost of all selected activities is the smallest. Note that the same activity may be common to more than one critical path.

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Steps in Project Crashing

Update all activity times. If the desired due date has been reached, stop. If not, return to Step 2.

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Crashing The Project

TABLE 3.5 Normal and Crash Data for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing
ACTIVITY TIME (WEEKS) COST ($) CRASH COST PER WEEK ($) CRITICAL PATH ?
NORMAL CRASH NORMAL CRASH
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 2 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes

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Crash and Normal Times and Costs for Activity B

Figure 3.15

| | |

1 2 3 Time (Weeks)

$34,000 —

$33,000 —

$32,000 —

$31,000 —

$30,000 —

Activity Cost

Crash

Normal

Crash Cost

Normal Cost

Crash Time

Normal Time

Crash Cost/Wk =

Crash Cost – Normal Cost

Normal Time – Crash Time

=

$34,000 – $30,000

3 – 1

= = $2,000/Week

$4,000

2 Wks

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Critical Path and Slack Times for Milwaukee Paper

Figure 3.16

E

4

F

3

G

5

H

2

4

8

13

15

4

8

13

7

13

15

10

13

8

13

4

8

D

4

3

7

C

2

2

4

B

3

0

3

Start

0

0

0

A

2

2

0

4

2

8

4

2

0

4

1

0

0

Slack = 1

Slack = 1

Slack = 0

Slack = 6

Slack = 0

Slack = 0

Slack = 0

Slack = 0

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Advantages of PERT/CPM

Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large projects

Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex

Graphical networks help highlight relationships among project activities

Critical path and slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched

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Advantages of PERT/CPM

Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities

Applicable to a wide variety of projects

Useful in monitoring not only schedules but costs as well

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Project activities have to be clearly defined, independent, and stable in their relationships

Precedence relationships must be specified and networked together

Time estimates tend to be subjective and are subject to fudging by managers

There is an inherent danger of too much emphasis being placed on the longest, or critical, path

Limitations of PERT/CPM

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Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.1

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Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.2

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Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.3

Pollution Project Percentage Completed on Aug. 12
ACTIVITY COMPLETED
A 100
B 100
C 100
D 10
E 20
F 20
G 0
H 0

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