International Business Homework : Country Analysis Report

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Global Business Today 9e

by Charles W.L. Hill

and Tomas Hult

© 2016 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.

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Chapter 6

International

Trade Theory

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Learning Objectives

The learning objectives for this chapter are to:

Understand why nations trade with each other.

Summarize the different theories explaining trade flows between nations.

Recognize why many economists believe that unrestricted free trade between nations will raise the economic welfare of countries that participate in a free trade system.

Explain the arguments of those who maintain that government can play a proactive role in promoting national competitive advantage in certain industries.

Understand the important implications that international trade theory holds for business practice.

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Introduction

International trade theory:

Explains why it is beneficial for countries to engage in international trade

Helps countries formulate their economic policy

Explains the pattern of international trade in the world economy

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Overview of Trade Theory

Question: What is free trade?

Answer:

Free trade refers to a situation where a government does not attempt to influence through quotas or duties what its citizens can buy from another country or what they can produce and sell to another country

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Overview of Trade Theory (continued from Slide 6-5)

Question: How has international trade theory evolved?

Answer:

Mercantilism (16th and 17th centuries) encouraged exports and discouraged imports

Adam Smith (1776) promoted unrestricted free trade

David Ricardo (19th century) built on Smith ideas

Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin (20th century ) refined Ricardo’s work

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The Benefits of Trade

Question: Why is it beneficial for countries to engage in free trade?

Answer:

International trade allows a country to:

Specialize in the manufacture and export of products that can be produced most efficiently in that country

Import products that can be produced more efficiently in other countries

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It is beneficial for a country to engage in international trade even for products it is able to produce for itself.

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Pattern of International Trade

Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage

Trade patterns reflect differences in labor productivity

Heckscher and Ohlin

Trade reflects the interplay between the proportions in which the factors of production are available in different countries and the proportions in which they are need for producing particular goods

Ray Vernon

Trade patterns reflect a product’s life cycle

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International trade theory helps explain trade patterns. Some patterns of trade are fairly easy to explain - it is obvious why Saudi Arabia exports oil, Ghana exports cocoa, and Brazil exports coffee. But, why does Switzerland export chemicals, pharmaceuticals, watches, and jewelry? Why does Japan export automobiles, consumer electronics, and machine tools?

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Pattern of International Trade

Paul Krugman’s new trade theory

The world market can only support a limited number of firms in some industries

Trade will skew toward those countries that have firms that were able to capture first mover advantages

Michael Porter’s Diamond

Country factors explain a nation’s dominance in the production and export of certain products

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Trade Theory & Government Policy

Mercantilism makes a case for government involvement in promoting exports and limiting imports

Smith, Ricardo, and Heckscher-Ohlin promote unrestricted free trade

New trade theory and Porter justify limited and selective government intervention to support the development of certain export-oriented industries

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While the theories all suggest that trade is beneficial, they lack agreement in their recommendations for government policy .

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Mercantilism

Mercantilism (mid-16th century): it is in a country’s best interest to maintain a trade surplus - to export more than it imports

Advocated government intervention to achieve a surplus in the balance of trade

Viewed trade as a zero-sum game: one in which a gain by one country results in a loss by another

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Mercantilism is problematic and not economically valid, yet many political views today have the goal of boosting exports while limiting imports by seeking only selective liberalization of trade.

Country Focus: Is China a Neo-Mercantilist Nation?

Summary

This feature analyzes claims that China is a neo-mercantilist nation. Exports are largely responsible for China’s recent rapid economic growth. The country, capitalizing on its cheap labor force, has been focused on converting raw materials into products that are exported to developed countries like the United States. In 2007, China’s trade surplus was a record $262 billion, and its holdings of foreign exchange reserves were over $1.5 trillion. Some critics have suggested that China is following a neo-mercantilist policy.

Suggested Discussion Questions

1. Are the claims that China is following a neo-mercantilist policy valid? Why or why not?

Discussion Points: Some critics claim that China’s deliberate steps to maintain a low currency relative to the dollar is indicative of the country’s neo-mercantilist policy which tries to simultaneously increase exports and limit imports. Many students will probably note that China’s impressive growth in recent years is largely export led, which would support the claims of the critics. China’s trade surplus in 2007 was $262 billion, and the country had foreign exchange reserves of more than $1.5 trillion, 70 percent of which were in U.S. dollars. At the same time, the country appears to have implemented an import substitution policy as it now produces products such as steel and paper that had been formerly imported.

2. What incentive does China have to open its markets to foreign products? Why might China resist such a move?

Discussion Points: China is under significant pressure from many countries including the United States to open its markets to foreign goods. Students will probably recognize that if the country does open its markets, the impressive economic growth the country has been experiencing would probably be affected. However, students may also note that the country may have to make some changes to its polices if only to appease other nations and prevent retaliatory trade measures from being taken. Already, the country, in response to pressure from the United States, has allowed its currency to appreciate relative to the dollar.

3. Is there evidence that China is pursuing an import substitution policy? How would this type of policy benefit the country?

Discussion Points: Countries following an import substitution policy try to substitute domestic production for products that were previously imported, regardless of whether it is more efficient to produce them domestically or not. Most students will probably suggest that in China’s case, this certainly appears to be occurring. The country used to import steel, aluminum, and paper, but now produces those products domestically, and in doing so, avoids the cash outflows that would accompany imports. With its greater reserves of foreign currencies, China gains economic power over other nations.

Lecture Note: For more information on China’s trade policy and concerns that China may be using currency policy to create a competitive advantage, go to {http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-10-15/us-report-criticizes-chinas-currency-policy}.

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Absolute Advantage

Smith (1776) - countries differ in their ability to produce goods efficiently

A country has an absolute advantage in the production of a product when it is more efficient than any other country in producing it

According to Smith:

Trade is not a zero-sum game

Countries should specialize in the production of goods for which they have an absolute advantage and then trade these goods for the goods produced by other countries

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Absolute Advantage (continued from Slide 6-12)

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The Theory of Absolute Advantage

Assume that two countries, Ghana and South Korea, both have 200 units of resources that could either be used to produce rice or cocoa. In Ghana, it takes 10 units of resources to produce one ton of cocoa and 20 units of resources to produce one ton of rice. So, Ghana could produce 20 tons of cocoa and no rice, 10 tons of rice and no cocoa, or some combination of rice and cocoa between the two extremes.

In South Korea it takes 40 units of resources to produce one ton of cocoa and 10 resources to produce one ton of rice. So, South Korea could produce 5 tons of cocoa and no rice, 20 tons of rice and no cocoa, or some combination in between.

Ghana has an absolute advantage in the production of cocoa.

South Korea has an absolute advantage in the production of rice.

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Absolute Advantage (continued from Slide 6-13)

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Absolute Advantage and the Gains from Trade

Without trade: Ghana would produce 10 tons of cocoa and 5 tons of rice and South Korea would produce 10 tons of rice and 2.5 tons of cocoa

If each country specializes in the product in which it has an absolute advantage and trades for the other product. Ghana would produce 20 tons of cocoa. South Korea would produce 20 tons of rice.

Suppose: Ghana could trade 6 tons of cocoa to South Korea for 6 tons of rice.

After trade: Ghana would have 14 tons of cocoa left, and 6 tons of rice and South Korea would have 14 tons of rice left and 6 tons of cocoa.

Both countries gained from trade.

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Comparative Advantage

Ricardo (1817): What happens when one country has an absolute advantage in the production of all goods?

Proposed the theory of comparative advantage

A country should specialize in the production of those goods that it produces most efficiently and buy the goods that it produces less efficiently from other countries

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Ricardo’s theory holds that this is true, even if it means the country buys goods from other countries that it could produce more efficiently itself.

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Comparative Advantage (continued from Slide 6-15)

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The Theory of Comparative Advantage

Assume: Ghana is more efficient in the production of both cocoa and rice. In Ghana, it takes 10 resources to produce one tone of cocoa, and 13 1/3 resources to produce one ton of rice. So, Ghana could produce 20 tons of cocoa and no rice, 15 tons of rice and no cocoa, or some combination of the two. In South Korea, it takes 40 resources to produce one ton of cocoa and 20 resources to produce one ton of rice

So, South Korea could produce 5 tons of cocoa and no rice, 10 tons of rice and no cocoa, or some combination of the two.

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Comparative Advantage (continued from Slide 6-16)

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Theory of Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Trade

If each country specializes in the production of the good in which it has a comparative advantage and trades for the other, both countries will gain.

With trade: Ghana could export 4 tons of cocoa to South Korea in exchange for 4 tons of rice. Ghana will still have 11 tons of cocoa, and 4 additional tons of rice. South Korea still has 6 tons of rice and 4 tons of cocoa.

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The Gains from Trade

The theory of comparative advantage - trade is a positive sum game in which all gain

Potential world production is greater with unrestricted free trade than it is with restricted trade

Provides a strong rationale for encouraging free trade

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Qualifications and Assumptions

The simple example of comparative advantage assumes:

Only two countries and two goods

Zero transportation costs

Similar prices and values

Resources are mobile between goods within countries, but not across countries

Constant returns to scale

Fixed stocks of resources

No effects on income distribution within countries

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Extensions of the Ricardian Model

Suppose the following assumptions are relaxed

1. Resources move freely from the production of one good to another within a country

2. There are constant returns to scale

3. Trade does not change a country’s stock of resources or the efficiency with which those resources are utilized

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Country Focus: Moving U.S. White Collar Jobs Offshore

Summary

This feature goes to the heart of a debate that has been played out many times over the past half century—the transference of jobs from the United States to lower-wage countries. The difference now however, is that rather than blue-collar jobs being transferred, the new trend is for white-collar jobs to move, jobs associated with the knowledge-based economy.

Suggested Discussion Questions

1. Will the United States suffer from the loss of highly skilled and high paying jobs? What does the transference of white-collar jobs mean to the average American?

Discussion Points: This hot issue is a highly sensitive one for many Americans—especially those who have seen their once secure jobs being shipped offshore. Many students will probably know someone who has suffered from this very situation, and may claim that companies have lost all loyalty to their employees and simply become profit seekers. Other students however, may point that companies are in business to make a profit, and do well for other stakeholders such as investors. Some students will simply argue that the loss of white-collar jobs is merely a manifestation of companies viewing the world as a borderless market—where they seek resources wherever they are cheapest, produce in the optimal location, and sell wherever there is demand.

2. What does the transference of white-collar jobs mean to recipient countries such as India and the Philippines?

Discussion Points: For developing countries like India and the Philippines, the transference of white-collar jobs from the United States not only generates new jobs, it also brings new skills and knowledge that could be vital to the countries as they continue on the path toward greater economic development. Students should recognize that greater employment levels will of course have the effect of pushing wages up, and creating greater economic prosperity in these nations. This in turn should be beneficial for American companies as new export markets develop.

3. Why do American companies transfer white-collar jobs to countries like India and the Philippines?

Discussion Points: India offers companies a well-educated workforce that is willing to work for a fraction of what companies would pay in the United States. By transferring skilled jobs to India or the Philippines, American companies increase their global competitiveness and profitability. Students will probably note that the trend to outsource is likely to continue as companies seek an edge wherever they can find one. Already, the trend is being seen in new industries such as healthcare where not only paperwork but even radiology services are now being routinely outsourced.

Lecture Note: Outsourcing call centers and other white collar jobs is common in many industries today, however it can also be controversial. To extend the discussion of outsourcing to include this angle, consider {http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-24/canada-union-sad-that-ford-engine-work-going-to-mexico}.

Lecture Note: To extend this discussion, consider {http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-15/outsourcing-a-passage-out-of-india}. This multi-country analysis explores the advantages and drawbacks of outsourcing to several different locations.

Lecture Note: Outsourcing is not always beneficial for companies. To extend this discussion, consider {http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-28/more-companies-see-advantage-to-manufacturing-in-the-u-dot-s} and {http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/for-some-us-manufacturers-time-to-head-home-02022012.html}.

Extensions of the Ricardian Model (continued from Slide 6-20)

1. Immobile Resources

Resources do not always move freely from one economic activity to another

Governments may help retrain displaced workers

2. Diminishing Returns

The simple model assumes constant returns to specialization: the units of resources required to produce a good are assumed to remain constant

An assumption of diminishing returns is more realistic since not all resources are of the same quality and different goods use resources in different proportions

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Extensions of the Ricardian Model (continued from Slide 6-21)

3. Dynamic Effects and Economic Growth

Trade might increase a country's stock of resources as increased supplies become available from abroad

Free trade might increase the efficiency of resource utilization, and free up resources for other uses

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Extensions of the Ricardian Model (continued from Slide 6-22)

4. The Samuelson Critique

Dynamic gains can lead to less beneficial outcomes

5. The Link between Trade and Growth

Countries that are open to trade have higher growth rates than countries that close their economies to trade

Higher growth rates raise income levels and living standards

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Heckscher-Ohlin Theory

Heckscher and Ohlin: Comparative advantage reflects differences in national factor endowments: the extent to which a country is endowed with resources such as land, labor, and capital

Countries will:

Export goods that make intensive use of those factors that are locally abundant

Import goods that make intensive use of factors that are locally scarce

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The Leontief Paradox

Leontief (1953): Since the U.S. was relatively abundant in capital, it would export capital intensive goods and import labor-intensive goods

Leontief found that U.S. exports were less capital intensive than U.S. imports

Possible explanations include:

That the U.S. has a special advantage in producing products made with innovative technologies that are less capital intensive

Differences in technology lead to differences in productivity which then drives trade patterns

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Product Life Cycle Theory

Vernon (mid-1960s ) the product life-cycle theory

As products mature both the location of sales and the optimal production location will change affecting the flow and direction of trade

At the time, the wealth and size of the U.S. market gave a strong incentive to U.S. firms to develop new products

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Product Life Cycle Theory (continued from Slide 6-26)

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The Product Life Cycle

In the early stages of a product’s life cycle demand may grow in the U.S., but demand in other advanced countries is limited to high-income groups. It is not worthwhile for firms in those countries to start producing the new product, but it does necessitate some exports from the U.S. to those countries.

Over time, demand for the new product starts to grow in other advanced countries making it worthwhile for foreign producers to begin producing for their home markets. U.S. firms might also set up production facilities in those advanced countries where demand is growing limiting the exports from the U.S.

As the market in the U.S. and other advanced nations matures, the product becomes more standardized, and price becomes the main competitive weapon.

Producers based in advanced countries where labor costs are lower than the United States might now be able to export to the U.S.

If cost pressures become intense, developing countries begin to acquire a production advantage over advanced countries.

The United States switches from being an exporter of the product to an importer of the product as production becomes more concentrated in lower-cost foreign locations.

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Product Life Cycle Theory Today

The product life cycle may not be as relevant today

Many products are now introduced in Japan or South Korea

Many new products are also introduced simultaneously into the U.S., Europe, and Asia

Firms use globally dispersed production from the start

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New Trade Theory

New trade theory (1970s) suggests:

Trade can increase the variety of goods available and decrease the average cost of those goods because of economies of scale: unit cost reductions associated with a large scale of output

When the output required to attain economies of scale represents a significant proportion of total world demand, the global market may only be able to support a small number of firms

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Increase Product Variety/Reduce Costs

Without trade

A small nation may not be able to support the demand necessary for producers to realize required economies of scale, and so certain products may not be produced

With trade

A nation may be able to specialize in producing a narrower range of products and then buy the goods that it does not make from other countries

Each nation then simultaneously increases the variety of goods available to its consumers and lowers the costs of those goods

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Economies of Scale/First Mover Advantages

Firms with first mover advantages (the economic and strategic advantages that accrue to many entrants into an industry) will develop economies of scale and create barriers to entry for other firms

The pattern of trade we observe in the world economy may be the result of first mover advantages and economies of scale

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Implications of New Trade Theory

New trade theory suggests

Nations may benefit from trade even when they do not differ in resource endowments or technology

A country may predominate in the export of a good simply because it was lucky enough to have one or more firms among the first to produce that good

So, new trade theory provides an economic rationale for a proactive trade policy that is at variance with other free trade theories

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New trade theory provides an economic rationale for a proactive trade policy that is at variance with other free trade theories.

Internet Extra: To learn more about government policy towards international trade, and how it might affect companies go to Electronic Embassy {http://www.embassy.org}. The site provides links to all of the foreign embassies located in Washington D.C.

Go to the site and click on Embassies. Select the country you are interested, for example Japan.

Then click on the URL for the Japanese embassy. To learn more about Japan’s policies on trade, click on Japan’s Foreign Policy.

Consider the information and what it means for managers as they make their decisions on where to export, where to produce, and so on.

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Porter’s Diamond

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Determinants of National Competitive Advantage: Porter’s Diamond

Porter (1990) tried to explain why a nation achieves international success in a particular industry.

Porter identified four attributes he calls the diamond that promote or impede the creation of competitive advantage:

Factor endowments

Demand conditions

Related and supporting industries

Firm strategy, structure, and rivalry

In addition, Porter identified two additional variables (chance and government) that can influence the diamond in important ways.

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Factor Endowments

Factor endowments (factors of production) can lead to competitive advantage

Can be either basic or advanced

Basic factors can provide an initial advantage that is extended by investment in advanced factors

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Basic factor endowments include natural resources, climate, and location. Advanced factor endowments include skilled labor, infrastructure, and technological know-how.

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Demand Conditions

Demand conditions: the nature of home demand for an industry’s product or service

Influence the development of capabilities

Sophisticated and demanding customers pressure firms to be more competitive and to produce high quality, innovative products

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Related and Supporting Industries

Related and supporting industries: the presence of supplier industries and related industries that are internationally competitive

Investing in these industries can spill over and contribute to success in other industries

Successful industries tend to be grouped in clusters in countries which then prompts knowledge flows between firms

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Having world class manufacturers of semi-conductor processing equipment can lead to (and be a result of having) a competitive semi-conductor industry.

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Firm Strategy, Structure, & Rivalry

Firm strategy, structure, and rivalry: the conditions in the nation governing how companies are created, organized, and managed, and the nature of domestic rivalry

There is a strong association between vigorous domestic rivalry and the creation and persistence of competitive advantage in an industry

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Nations are characterized by different management ideologies which influence the ability of firms to build national competitive advantage.

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Evaluating Porter’s Theory

Question: Is Porter right?

Answer:

If Porter is correct, his model should predict the pattern of international trade in the real world

Countries should export products from industries where the diamond is favorable

Countries should import products from areas where the diamond is not favorable

So, far there has been little empirical testing of the theory

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Porter argues that the four attributes of the diamond together with government policy, and chance work as a reinforcing system, complementing each other and in combination creating the conditions appropriate for competitive advantage.

According to Porter, government policy can affect demand through product standards, influence rivalry through regulation and antitrust laws, and impact the availability of highly educated workers and advanced transportation infrastructure.

Implications for Managers

Question: What are the implications of international trade theory for international businesses?

Answer:

There are at least three main implications for international businesses

Location implications

First-mover implications

Policy implications

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Different countries have advantages in different productive activities. These differences influence a firm’s decision about where to locate productive activities. A firm should disperse its productive activities to those countries where they can be performed most efficiently.

Firms that establish a first-mover advantage in the production of a new product may later dominate global trade in that product.

Government policies on free trade or protecting domestic industries can significantly impact global competitiveness. Businesses should encourage free trade policies.

Go to the site and click on Embassies. Select the country you are interested, for example Japan.

Then click on the URL for the Japanese embassy. To learn more about Japan’s policies on trade, click on Japan’s Foreign Policy.

Consider the information and what it means for managers as they make their decisions on where to export, where to produce, and so on.

Summary

In this chapter we have:

Understood why nations trade with each other.

Summarized the different theories explaining trade flows between nations.

Recognized why many economists believe that unrestricted free trade between nations will raise the economic welfare of countries that participate in a free trade system.

Explained the arguments of those who maintain that government can play a proactive role in promoting national competitive advantage in certain industries.

Understood the important implications that international trade theory holds for business practice.

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