Tim Hortons Decision making powerpoint presentation

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DECISION MAKING PROCESS APPROACHES

CHAPTER-3

FLOW OF PRESENTATION

Improving Creativity

Reflective Thinking Process

The Kepner-Tregoe Approach

The Fishbone Technique

Brainstorming

Six Thinking Hats

Incrementation

Mixed Scanning

Tacit Bargaining

Strategic Thinking

IMPROVING CREATIVITY

Creative thinking is often characterized as thinking “outside the box”.

Creativity can be divided into two phases of thinking:

Divergent thinking

Convergent thinking

IMPROVING CREATIVITY

It allows the decision maker to more fully appraise and understand the problem, including seeing problems others can’t see.

Creative Potential: Most people have creative potential that they use when confronted with a decision-making problem. But to unleash that potential, they must get out of the psychological ruts.

Research suggests that we are more creative when we’re in good moods.

DIVERGENT AND CONVERGENT THINKING

What is divergent thinking?

Form of thinking where many different aspects of ideas are explored (crazy)

What is convergent thinking?

Once you have managed to achieve a clear divergent process, it becomes a lot easier to move into the convergent phase of thinking. The convergent phase will typically be faster paced. Here ideas comes together to form a solution(realistic)

DIVERGENT AND CONVERGENT THINKING

You start by looking in your closet to explore options. There are so many choices to consider! You could wear pants, shorts, a sweater, or a t-shirt. In fact, forcing yourself to look at things that you haven’t worn in a while is good example of using divergent thinking.

With the time ticking away, you narrow your options down to a final selection. You make choices by considering a range of factors. How hot is it? Is it rainy? Is there an important meeting on my calendar? Focusing your consideration set is convergent thinking.

FOUR DIFFERENT KINDS OF CREATIVITY THAT MAY BE APPLIED FOR PROBLEM SOLVING

Gibson and Hodgetts (1986) identify four different kinds of creativity that may be applied for problem solving

Innovation

Extension

Duplication

Synthesis

INNOVATION

This is the process of creating new product, service, or process

e.g. Alexandra Graham Bell Telephone.

EXTENSION

New use or different application of an already existed product, service or process. e.g. Mark Zuckerberg - Facebook, Ray Kroc - MC Donald's.

DUPLICATION

Creative replication of an already existed concept.

e.g. Wal-Mart - Department store.

SYNTHESIS

This is the combination of an existed concept and factors into a new formulation or use e.g. Fred Smith - Fed Ex.

REFLECTIVE THINKING PROCESS

The reflective thinking process Dewey (1910) emphasizes the left-brain functions.

Define problem

Analyze causes

Identify criteria

Generate solutions

Choose best solution

Implement solution

SIX STEPS OF REFLECTIVE THINKING

Step 1: Define the Problem:

Use the Journalist's Six Questions (Who? What? When? Where? Why? How?) to help define the issues.

Step 2: Analyze causes:

Use force field analysis to identify driving and restraining forces.

Step 3: Identify criteria.

Develop clear criteria that clarify the issues and can help in evaluating others.

Step 4: Generate Several Possible Solutions

Use brainstorming Step 5: Evaluate Options and Select the Best Solution of Combination of Solutions

Narrow alternative using ranking, rating, majority vote, or expert decision. Reach consensus by being goal-oriented, listening, and promoting honest dialogue.

Step 6: Test and Implement the Solution

Develop a clear action plan. Make a written list of who should do what.

THE KEPNER-TREGOE APPROACH

The founders Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe (KT) developed a rational working method in the 1960s in which they researched and identified the troubleshooting skills of people.

Four rational processes (Traditional pattern Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe)

Situation analysis

This clarifies the problem situation (what happened).

Problem analysis

Here the actual cause of the problem and the relationship between cause and result are searched for (why did it happen).

Decision analysis

Based on the decision-making criteria, choices are made to arrive at potential problem resolutions (how should we act).

Potential Problem analysis

Here potential future problems are anticipated, and preventative actions are developed (what will the result be).

Fishbone Technique (Cause And Effect analysis or Ishikawa Diagram Created by Kaoru Ishikawa)

By: Dr. Amit Kohli

BRAINSTORMING

Brainstorming is a lateral thinking process.

Brainstorming encourages open and random thinking and communications

Brainstorming emphasizes right-brain activity.

Rules for brainstorming:

Put judgment and evaluation aside temporarily

Turn imagination loose & start offering results.

Think of as many ideas as you can.

Seek combination and improvement.

Record all ideas in full view.

Evaluate at a later session.

LATERAL THINKING

Lateral Thinking means thinking differently or thinking out of the box.

Puzzle 1: A man is replacing a wheel on his car, when he accidentally drops the four nuts used to hold the wheel on the car, and they fall into a deep drain, irretrievably lost. A passing girl offers him a solution which enables him to drive home. What is it?

Puzzle 2: A truck is stuck at a road under a bridge. It's just a couple of inches too high to pass under. Any other route, avoiding the bridge would add a couple of hours to the journey. A young boy comes along and again saves the day. How?

LATERAL THINKING

Answer 1: Use one nut from each of the other three wheels.

Answer 2: Let air out of the tires till the truck is low enough.

HOW TO USE EDWARD DEBONO’S PARALLEL THINKING IN PROBLEM SOLVING

Parallel Thinking, First published by Edward de Bono in 1985.

SIX THINKING HATS

Major organizations using Six Thinking Hats are: NASA, IBM, ABB, Siemens, Microsoft, British Airways, BP, Federal Express, Pepsico, Prudential Insurance etc.

Color of hat identifies the type or direction of thinking

The main idea is to have the group “wear only one hat at a time”

PEPSICO: REVENUE: 64.66 BILLION US DOLLARS

US$64.66 billion (2018

ACQUISITION EXAMPLE MICROSOFT AND LINKEDIN

Successful Merger

FAILED MERGER

SIX THINKING HATS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2JimLV_2AI

WHITE HAT THINKING

Questions to be asked & answered under White hat:

What information / facts do we know?

What information is missing?

What information / facts would we like to have?

How are we going to get the information?

What is most important?

How valid is this?

RED HAT THINKING (FEELINGS)

Questions to be asked & answered under Red hat:

How do I feel about this right now?

How cold or warm do I feel about this?

How am I reacting to this?

BLACK HAT THINKING (JUDGE)

Questions to be asked & answered under Black hat:

Is this true?

Will it work?

Why it won’t work?

What are the weaknesses?

What is wrong with it?

YELLOW HAT THINKING (SUN)

Questions to be asked & answered under Yellow hat:

What are the good points?

What are the benefits?

Why will this idea work?

Why is this worth doing?

How will it help us?

Why can it be done?

GREEN HAT (GREENERY)

Questions to be asked & answered under Green hat:

What are some possible ways to work this out?

What are some other ways to solve the problem?

Open with the blue hat…(time to use each hat)

Why are we here?

What are we thinking about?

Definition of the situation or problem

The background to the thinking

What we want to achieve?

Where we want to end up?

A plan for the sequence of hats

Time for each hat session and time allowed for each individual

…and close with the blue hat (sky)[summary]

What have we achieved?

What decision have we reached?

What do we do next?

Summarizes the following: –

Outcome

Conclusion

Design

Solution

Next steps

HATS SUMMARY

USING THE HATS

Use blue hat at the beginning and end

Blue hat is usually worn by the facilitator

Use any hat, as often as needed

Hats can be used singly at any point or as a sequence of two, three, four or more hats

Sequence can be preset or evolving

Not necessary to use every hats

Time under each hat: generally, short

Requires discipline from each person to stay focused

Adds an element of play

Can be used by individuals and groups

Six Thinking Hats – Case Study

Scenario:

The Technopark management is looking at whether they should construct a new building. The amount of available vacant office space is coming down and economy is doing well.

As part of their decision making process, they decided to use the Six Thinking Hats during the meeting.

SOLUTION OF CASE STUDY

White Hats: Analysis of data on the trend of un-rented office space versus the growth in demand, shows that by the time the building is completed there would be severe shortage of un-rented office space with the increasing demand for office space.

Red Hats: Feels that the design of the new building would be very attractive and modern. Hence, the potential tenants may like it, though it may not be cost effective.

Black Hats: Worry that the government projections may be wrong, and over estimating the strength of the economy.

SOLUTION OF CASE STUDY

Yellow Hats: If economy holds up and government projections are correct, we may even achieve the 100% occupancy rate of the new building, and the company stands to make a higher profit.

Green Hats: Old building spaces vacated by the companies moving to the new building could be renovated to look more trendy with some creative alterations to the basic design and some additional facilities. This would again attract companies to these old buildings with more revenues because of renovation / additional facilities.

Blue Hats: Needs to keep the meeting focused on the agenda. At the same time, there should be a balance between the company’s original objectives in proposing the new building and the possibility of enhancing the plan by considering the new business opportunities that may be identified.

INCREMENTALISM (SMALL INCREMENTAL CHANGES) [Theory of public policy making]

Braybrooke and Lindblom (1963)

They argue that many governmental policies are adopted partially as a result of adapting to political pressure rather than as a result of rational analysis. According to which policies result from a process of interaction and mutual adaptation.

In practice, policy makers do not identify objectives and then examine alternative means, as called for by the rational ideal. To the contrary, means and ends are typically considered simultaneously

MIXED SCANNING

Etzioni (1968) offers a decision-making strategy that is a combination of reflective thinking and incrementalism.

The ability to maintain a balance between attention to the general and attention to the specific appears to be a major factor in successful problem solving.

TACIT BARGAINING

Murnighan (1992) refer to “tacit bargaining” as “bargaining in which communication is incomplete or impossible”.

People can cooperate fairly successfully in some problem-solving situations if it is to their advantage to do so.

Mixed-motive situations—when there is simultaneous pressure to cooperate and to compete– imply communication procedures that are distinctly different from those in other problem-solving situations.

STRATEGIC PLANNING

Strategic planning is the high-level process of LISTING YOUR PRIORITIES AND ALIGNING THEM WITH YOUR LONG-TERM VISION FOR YOUR ORGANIZATION. A strategic plan becomes the “North Star” for your other decision-making tools, including project evaluation and budget analysis. Thus, the more robust your strategic planning, the better your decision analysis and execution.

WHAT IS STRATEGIC GAP ANALYSIS?

Strategic gap analysis is an evaluation of the difference between desired outcome and actual outcome, and what must be done to achieve a desired goal. Strategic gap analysis attempts to determine what a company should do differently to achieve a goal by looking at the time frame, management, budget and other factors to determine where shortcomings lie.

STRATEGIC GAP ANALYSIS

If a small mom and pop restaurant wanted to become a top tourist destination but currently only served locals, a strategic gap analysis would look at the changes required for the restaurant to meet its goals.

These changes might include relocating to an area with more tourists, altering the menu to appeal to out-of-town visitors, hiring more staff so the restaurant's hours become more convenient for travelers, and so on. The analysis would also determine how to make these changes happen. If a business doesn't know where it stands in relation to its goals, it is not likely to achieve them.

CASE STUDY (SIX HAT)

You want to do a job or want to open your own company

REFERENCES

"Ray Kroc" (Fee, via Fairfax County Public Library). Newsmakers. Biography In Context. Detroit Michigan: Gale. 1985. Gale Document Number: GALE|K1618001946. Retrieved June 12, 2011.

Cicarelli, James (2003). "Ray Kroc" (Fee, via Fairfax County Public Library). In Arnold Markoe and Kenneth T. Jackson (eds.). Scribner Encyclopedia of American Lives, Thematic Series: Sports Figures. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons. Retrieved June 12, 2011. Gale Biography In Context.

Anderson, Robert (March 2009). "Ray Kroc How He Made McDonald's Sizzle". Success. Archived from the original on May 31, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2011. (excerpt from September 1977 article)

Pace Eric (January 15, 1984). "Ray A. Kroc dies at 81. Built McDonald's Chain". The New York Times. Retrieved June 12, 2011.

"The Mc Donald's Man: What Ray Kroc Hath Wrought Around the World". People. May 19, 1975

REFERENCES

Brown, Abram. "10 Things You Might Not Know About FedEx Billionaire Fred Smith". Forbes.

Robbins, Alexandra (2002). Secrets of the Tomb: Skull and Bones, the Ivy League, and the Hidden Paths of Power. Little, Brown and Company. pp. 172, 180–1. ISBN 0-316-72091-7.

"Frederick W. Smith." Contemporary Newsmakers 1985, Issue Cumulation. Gale Research, 1986.

"'Live' with TAE: Frederick Smith". The American Enterprise. June 1, 2004.

Purdum, Todd S. (July 6, 2004). "The 2004 Campaign: The Massachusetts Senator: Idealistic Man on Campus To Realistic Sailor at War". New York Times.

REFERENCES

"Pepsi Cola's Long, Winding History". ThoughtCo. Retrieved May 16, 2019.

Leonard, Carl (August 28, 2013). "Caleb Bradham's soda fountain flavor "Brad's Drink" became Pepsi-Cola today in 1898. Now WE know em". Retrieved May 16, 2019.

"Guth v. Loft (Del. 1939) [Pepsi]". h2o.law.harvard.edu. Retrieved May 16, 2019.

"PepsiCo, Inc. Company History". Funding Universe. Retrieved December 14, 2010.

Antman, Rachel A. (September 29, 2006). "The Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens". The New York Times. Retrieved December 15, 2010.

"PepsiCo Company Description (as filed with the SEC)". NASDAQ. Retrieved December 15, 2010.

"PepsiCo to move to Nasdaq after nearly a century with NYSE". Reuters. December 8, 2017. Retrieved May 14, 2019.

"Yum! Brands, Inc. Company History". Funding Universe. Retrieved December 15,2010.

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