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CH8CampaignsandElections.pptxCampaigns and Elections
Chapter 8
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
In this chapter you will:
Learn what is unique (and what is not) about American elections.
Examine how democratic American elections are today.
Discuss the influence of money in elections.
Explore presidential and congressional campaigns.
Identify the keys to a successful campaign for Congress.
Consider campaign and election reforms.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Elections in the United States
The Constitution leaves details to the states. States choose the “time, place, and manner” for electing members of Congress. The Constitution produces fifty slightly different election systems.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
How Democratic are American Elections? Frequent and Fixed Elections
The United States holds elections for national office more often than any other advanced democratic country.
House members are chosen every two years, senators every six years, and presidents every four years.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
How Democratic are American Elections? 520,000 Elected Officials
Not only are American elections unusually frequent compared to most countries, but the number of positions filled by elections is enormous.
From presidents to municipal drain inspectors, Americans have a say in who our public officials will be.
From Anchorage, Alaska, to Zapata, Texas, there are over 520,000 elective offices at the local, state, and national level – roughly 1 official for every 420 Americans eligible to vote.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
How Democratic are American Elections? Financing Campaigns: The New Inequality?
Too Much Money? Polls consistently show overwhelming majorities want to reduce the role of money in U.S. elections.
Democracy for the Rich? Two concerns: (1) fear that one political party will unfairly stack the deck in its own favor; and (2) fear that influence (exercised by individuals or corporations) is unevenly distributed in ways that add up to dangerous inequities.
Major Donors: Easier to Give. In 2014, the Supreme Court’s ruling in McCutcheon effectively ended limits on the aggregate amount any person may donate to a political campaign.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Campaign Spending
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
The Cost of National Elections (inflation-adjusted dollars)
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Sources of Funds, by Type of Contributor, 2012 Presidential Campaign
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Easier to Give
Campaign finance laws limited amount any individual could spend
Supreme Court Case: McCutcheon v. FEC
Claimed constitutional right to donate money violated
Supreme Court agreed ending limits on donations
Individuals limited to $2,600 to any individual candidate
Wealthy donors legally able to deliver unlimited amounts
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Money in Elections: The New Rules
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Money in Elections: The New Rules
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Money in Elections: The New Rules
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Major Donors
Bundling
Individual persuades others to donate large amounts that are then delivered together to a candidate or campaign
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Organization of at least fifty people, affiliated with an interest group, that is permitted to make contributions to candidates for federal office
2014 limited to five thousand dollars per candidate per election cycle
Super PACs
Permitted to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to promote a candidate or cause.
May not directly contribute to a candidate or coordinate with a campaign
527 groups
Raise and spend unlimited amounts for “issue advocacy”
Ads cannot mention candidate favorably or unfavorably
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections Who Runs for President?
Who runs for president?
Presidential elections, despite their grueling intensity and duration, attracts many aspirants every four years. Usually experienced politicians run.
Senators usually lose.
Barack Obama was the first to win running from the Senate in forty-eight years. Five senators ran and lost between 1964 and 2004.
Vice presidents have a better record than those in the other two offices.
Seven sought the White House in the last fifty years; all won their party’s nomination and three went on to win.
Governors are the new winners.
Since 1976, however, four out of our six presidents have come from governors’ mansions.
No one else gets elected. Exception: Donald Trump, business man
In the past half century, newcomers to the political process have not been able to negotiate it.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
The President’s Résumé
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections The Three Phases of Presidential Elections
1. Nominating Process 2. Party Convention 3. General Election
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Winning the Nomination
Presidential candidates must master the nominating process’s elaborate rules and primary election calendar to have any hope of success.
Each state determines its own primary election calendar—carefully negotiated with the national parties.
Holding a primary early in the process, before the nomination is decided, attracts attention—and gives the voters an important say in the process.
Back in 1992, the national party leaders scheduled multiple elections on a single date, known as Super Tuesday.
Traditionally Republicans used a winner-take-all system, under which the winning candidate receives all the delegates for that state.
Democrats, in contrast, have in most states since the 1970s employed a system of proportional representation, allocating delegates based on the proportion of the vote a candidate wins.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections The Three Phases of Presidential Elections (cont.)
Party Convention
Presents the candidate to the public
Can result in an electoral “bounce”—persistent increase in survey poll results for the candidate
If done poorly, the candidate can continue to suffer in the polls until Election Day (like 1968 Democratic Convention).
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections The Three Phases of Presidential Elections (cont.)
General Election
Sprint to November after the conventions with no pause
Often feature two or three debates between the candidates; single vice-presidential debate is common as well
Debates, like the party convention, can make a difference to the November outcome: a slip-up might turn off some wavering voters, whereas a strong performance can attract more support to a candidate’s side.
The first televised presidential debate was held in 1960, featuring Republican Richard Nixon (the sitting vice president) and Senator John F. Kennedy, the Democratic nominee.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections Winning Presidential Elections
Economic Outlook. Economic factors like the unemployment rate, economic growth (or decline), and stock market trends have an important place in many voters’ minds.
Demographics. Each party works to build a winning coalition, relying on its base of likely supporters and reaching out to undecided groups.
War and Foreign Policy. Domestic policy is usually the focus but foreign policy issues can become pivotal, especially when the nation is at war.
Domestic Issues. The candidate’s issues are important, not because they will decide the election, but because they set the agenda for the presidency.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Presidential Campaigns and Elections Winning Presidential Elections (cont.)
The Campaign Organization. It is essential to assemble a team of talented, loyal advisors capable of charting a plan for victory.
Who Won and Why.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Candidates: Who Runs for Congress?
Requirements
Age—25 for House, 30 for Senate
Citizenship—7 years US citizenship for House, 9 years US citizenship for Senate
Residence—must live in the state
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Candidates: Who Runs for Congress? (cont.)
Money
Winning a House seat costs over $1 million in campaign contributions.
Winning a Senate seat costs on average $7 million in campaign contributions.
Despite the wealth needs, relatively few business leaders in the US run for Congress, and often business leaders who run lose (for example Meg Whitman for California governor in 2010, Linda McMahon for Senate in 2010, and Jerry Springer for Senate for Ohio in 2010).
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Candidates: Who Runs for Congress? (cont.)
Connections
Relatives/spouse in Congress
Previous seat in state-level government—close to half of non-incumbents in the Senate were political veterans
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections The Power of Incumbency
Most incumbents—people who already won a position—win and keep their position; reelection rates are usually at least 90%.
Incumbents have skill at running against the institution of Congress as the “reasonable” person trying to “reform” it.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Senate and House Reelection Rates, 1964-2014
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Congressional Election Results
Congressional elections feature midterm elections (those elections held in a nonpresidential year): all House of Representatives seats, one-third of Senate seats, thirty-six governorships, and other positions.
Midterm elections: In most elections since World War II, the president’s party loses both House and Senate seats.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Redrawing the Lines: The Art of the Gerrymander
Gerrymandering is redrawing district boundaries to give the advantage to one party.
After every census, states redraw the boundaries of districts (reapportionment).
In 1812 Massachusetts governor Elbridge Gerry created a district that commentators said resembled a salamander.
Packing: placing like-minded voters in one district.
Cracking: spreading opposition party members across multiple districts to perpetually be a minority.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Redrawing the Lines: The Art of the Gerrymander
States losing population also lose districts so incumbents are forced to run against each other.
Supreme Court has ruled race cannot be the predominant factor in creating congressional districts
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
How Gerrymandering works— A Hypothetical Case of Highly Political Redistricting
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Maryland’s Congressional Districts, 2014
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Elections Nonpartisan Districting and Minority Representation
California gave the process of drawing electoral districts to a nonpartisan commission that divided the state into natural communities and did not tilt to any political side, resulting in compact, contiguous districts faithful to existing geographic communities.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Campaigns The Rise of Candidate-Centered Elections
Candidate-centered election occurs in a political system in which individual candidates decide to run, raise their own money, and design their own strategy—as opposed to party systems, in which political parties play these roles.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Campaigns How to Run for Congress
Key 1: Money - up to two million dollars in many House districts and five or six times that if you are running for Senate.
Key 2: Organization - a well-constructed team and manager to recruit and train speechwriters, fundraisers, supportive community leaders, get-out-the-vote experts, and volunteer envelope stuffers.
Key 3: Strategy - two vital congressional campaign strategies are building a coalition of supporters and connecting with voters. Attract influential spokespeople, negative ads.
Key 4: Message - a clear, powerful rationale for why you are running and what you plan to accomplish.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Congressional Campaigns Conclusion: Reforming American Elections
Does the US electoral system work? Concerns range from gerrymanders to incumbency rates to the influence of money in politics.
Many reforms have been proposed to address problems like these.
Gerrymandering: As California did after the 2010 census, we could end partisan battles over House districts and ask neutral panels to draw the lines.
Money: Many reformers want publicly financed elections, where (as in most other advanced democracies) the government provides equal funding to each candidate and allows relatively small donations from the public.
Three states—Arizona, Connecticut, and Maine—currently have full public funding in place for congressional and other statewide elections.
Term limits: The president is limited to two terms, as are many governors. Why not limit members of Congress to, say, twelve years of service?
Strong critics of reform respond that campaign finance is a form of free speech.
Whether the system needs reform or not, campaigns and elections provide avenues to participation for the many divergent groups in American society.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
