week 3 stats hw

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Table 5.2

Walace Garden Center Data Figure 5.2
Sales Test Center Absolute Value of Error 3 Month Moving Average Absolute Value of Error
Jan 10 10.00 --- ---
Feb 12 12.00 --- ---
Mar 13 13.00 --- ---
Apr 16 16.00 0.00 0.00
May 19 19.00 0.00 0.00
Jun 23 23.00 0.00 0.00
Jul 26 26.00 0.00 0.00
Aug 30 30.00 0.00 0.00
Sep 28 28.00 0.00 0.00
Oct 18 18.00 0.00 0.00
Nov 16 16.00 0.00 0.00
Dec 14 14.00 0.00 0.00
Jan --- --- 0.00 ---
Sum of Abs Val of Error 190.00 Sum of Abs Val of Error 0.00
MAD 21.11 MAD 0.00
Hence "on the average, each forecast missed the actual value by" 6.48 units
p. 155

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 10 12 13 16 19 23 26 30 28 18 16 14

Table 5.4

Quarter Tonnage F(t+1)
1 180 175.00
2 168 175.50
3 159 174.75
4 175 173.18
5 190 173.36
6 205 175.02
7 180 178.02
8 182 178.22
9 --- 178.60

Table 5.8

Table 5.8
Year 1 Year 2 2-year average Seasonal Index Year 3 Forecast
Jan 80 100 90 0.9574468085 95.7
Feb 85 75 80 0.8510638298 85.1
Mar 80 90 85 0.9042553191 90.4
Apr 110 90 100 1.0638297872 106.4
May 115 131 123 1.3085106383 130.9
Jun 120 110 115 1.2234042553 122.3
Jul 100 110 105 1.1170212766 111.7
Aug 110 90 100 1.0638297872 106.4
Sep 85 95 90 0.9574468085 95.7
Oct 75 85 80 0.8510638298 85.1
Nov 85 75 80 0.8510638298 85.1
Dec 80 80 80 0.8510638298 85.1
Total 1128 Forecast 1200
Average 94 Average 100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 90 80 85 100 123 115 105 100 90 80 80 80