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Ch12-CashFlowEstimation.pptx

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Chapter 12. Cash Flow Estimation

Net Present Value analysis, IRR, and PI methods provide very sophisticated measures of shareholder value generated by potential capital investments.

If cash flow estimates are bad, any analytical technique for assessing project value will lead to poor investment decisions.

Capital Budgeting and Cash Flows

Capital budgeting concerned with cash flows, not accounting profit.

To evaluate a capital investment, we must know:

Incremental cash outflows of the investment (marginal cost of investment), and

Incremental cash inflows of the investment (marginal benefit of investment)

The timing and magnitude of cash flows and accounting profits can differ dramatically.

Cash Flows Versus Accounting Profit

Financing costs should be excluded when evaluating a project’s cash flow.

Ask the following: Is the project’s existence dependent on financing?

NO!!!-- you must separate financing and investment decisions

Both interest expense from debt financing and dividend payments to equity investors should be excluded.

Financing costs are captured in the discounting future cash flows to present.

Financing Costs

Land, Buildings, Equipment, etc.

Asset purchases represent negative cash flows (Accounts don’t show purchase as a deduction from earnings-use depreciation instead).

Shipping and installation costs should be included in the purchase price.

Full initial cost becomes the depreciable basis.

Costs of fixed assets

Accountants subtract depreciation from revenues to obtain net income.

Depreciation shelters income from tax – which impacts cash flows – so it is relevant.

Depreciation must be added to net income when estimating the project’s cash flow.

Non-cash Charges

Working capital= Current assets – current liabilities

Usually inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable

Usually, working capital = Inv + AR – AP

New investment projects typically increase net working capital: cash outflow.

Most of the increase comes from additional inventories and receivables.

Typically an outflow at the beginning of a project and an inflow at the end.

Changes in Net Working capital

Relevant

Cash flows (not accounting earnings)

Depreciation

Incremental cash flows

Opportunity costs: The return on the best alternative use of an asset. Must be included. (Example: land previously owned.)

Side effects (externalities): Effects of a project on cash flows in other parts of the firm. (E.g. cannibalism or synergy)

Taxes

Irrelevant

Sunk costs: Outlays that have already occurred.

Cash Flows

Opportunity Costs: Currently own land or have to purchase land

Sunk costs: Bought a cell phone, now want new I-Phone…should original price of phone be included?

(1) Cash Flows from Operations

Operating Cash Flow = EBIT – Taxes + Depreciation

Other Methods for Computing OCF

Bottom-Up Approach

Works only when there is no interest expense

OCF = NI + depreciation

Top-Down Approach

OCF = Sales – Costs – Taxes

Don’t subtract non-cash deductions

Tax Shield Approach

OCF = (Sales – Costs)(1 – tc) + Depreciation* tc

Estimating Cash Flows

Capital Spending: Changes to fixed assets

(2) Cash Flows from Investments

Part I: Net Capital Spending

Usually up front and at the end

Remember salvage value (after tax)

Part II: Changes in Net Working Capital

Part III: Opportunity Costs

(3) Cash Flows from Side Effects

cannibalism or synergy

Estimating Cash Flows

Speedo has decided to introduce the LZR-2. An improved version of the LZR that Phelps and others wore.

Speedo spent 250k developing an improved “Pulse” fabric

Speedo spent 100k test marketing it with Olympic hopeful swimmers

Test market was successful

Example: Speedo LZR-2

Details

Speedo is assuming three years for the project. They assume that at the end of three years the technology will be essentially obsolete.

Cost of equipment to support the new swimsuit: $200,000 (depreciated according to MACRS 3-year life)

Increase in net working capital (mainly fabric materials): $20,000. This will be recovered at the end of the project.

Inflation has been built into financial statements already.

Operating costs are about 90% of revenues.

The equipment can be sold at the end of the project for an estimated $20,000.

Speedo has estimated the appropriate discount rate to be 10%.

Example: Speedo LZR-2

See the text for the details of the case.

Relevant or not?

250k developing fabric?

100k test marketing swimsuits?

Example: Speedo LZR-2

Starting point: Year 0 outflows Equipment -200 NWC -20 Total -220

Example: Speedo LZR-2

Depreciation

Why do we care about depreciation?

Taxes

Tax shield = depreciation * tax rate

Now, do you want tax shields sooner or later?

Tax law allows accelerated depreciation (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System or MACRS)

Example: Speedo LZR-2

Tax Shield coming sooner implies that the Present Value of the tax shield will be larger

Example: Speedo LZR-2

MACRS increases the present value of an investment’s tax benefits.

Speedo (rounded):

Year	Investment	%	Depr
1	200	.33	66.00
2	200	.45	90.00
3	200	.15	30.00
4	200	.07	14.00

Example: Speedo LZR-2

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3

Revenues	4,000.00	3,000.00	2,000.00
Oper costs	-3,600.00	-2,700.00	-1,800.00
Depreciation	-66.00	-90.00	-30.00
Inc before tax	334.00	210.00	170.00
Tax (40%)	-133.60	-84.00	-68.00
Net Inc	200.40	126.00	102.00

+ Depreciation	+66.00	+90.00	+30.00
Oper CF	266.40	216.00	132.00

Equipment can be sold at end of year 3 for 20,000.

So, additional CF: Book value: 14 Capital gain: 20 – 14 = 6 Taxes: 6 * .4 = 2.4 CF: 20 – 2.4 = 17.6

Put it all together!

Capital investment

Change in NWC

Operating CFs (need depreciation)

CF from Salvage

Evaluate!

Example: LZR-2

200 – 186 = BV of 14

Example: LZR-2

	Year 0	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Capital Inv	-200.00
D in NWC	-20.00	0.00	0.00	+20.00
Oper CF		+266.40	+216.00	+132.00
Salvage CF				+17.60
Net CFs	-220.00	266.40	216.00	169.60

Find NPV, IRR.

Discount rate of 10%

Year(s)3-Year5-Year7-Year10-Year15-Year20-Year

133.332014.291053.75

244.453224.49189.57.22

314.8119.217.4914.48.556.68

47.4111.5212.4911.527.76.18

511.528.939.226.935.71

65.768.927.376.235.28

7 8.936.555.94.89

8 4.456.555.94.52

9 6.565.94.46

10 6.555.94.46

11 3.295.94.46

12 5.94.46

13 5.914.46

14 5.94.46

15 5.914.46

16 2.994.46

17-20 4.46

21 2.23

Tax Depreciation Schedules by Recovery-Period Class

Table 6.1

		Period
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Capital Investment	10,000							(1,949)
2	Accumulated depreciation		1,583	3,167	4,750	6,333	7,917	9,500	- 0
3	Year-end book value	10,000	8,417	6,833	5,250	3,667	2,083	500	- 0
4	Working capital		550	1,289	3,261	4,890	3,583	2,002	- 0
5	Total book value (3+4)	10,000	8,967	8,122	8,511	8,557	5,666	2,502	- 0
6	Sales		523	12,887	32,610	48,901	35,834	19,717
7	Cost of goods sold		837	7,729	19,552	29,345	21,492	11,830
8	Other Costs	4,000	2,200	1,210	1,331	1,464	1,611	1,772
9	Depreciation		1,583	1,583	1,583	1,583	1,583	1,583
10	Pretax profit (6-7-8-9)	(4,000)	(4,097)	2,365	10,144	16,509	11,148	4,532	1,449
11	Tax at 35%	(1,400)	(1,434)	828	3,550	5,778	3,902	1,586	507
12	Profit after tax (10-11)	2,600	(2,663)	1,537	6,595	10,731	7,246	2,946	942

Table 6.2

		Period
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Sales		523	12,887	32,610	48,901	35,834	19,717
2	Cost of goods sold		837	7,729	19,552	29,345	21,492	11,830
3	Other costs	4,000	2,200	1,210	1,331	1,464	1,611	1,772
4	Tax on operations	(1,400)	(1,434)	828	3,550	5,778	3,902	1,586
5	Cash flow from operations (1-2-3-4)	(2,600)	(1,080)	3,120	8,177	12,314	8,829	4,529
6	Change in working capital		(550)	(739)	(1,972)	(1,629)	1,307	1,581	2,002
7	Capital investment and disposal	(10,000)							1,442
8	Net cash flow (5+6+7)	(12,600)	(1,630)	2,381	6,205	10,685	10,136	6,110	3,444
9	Present value at 20%	(12,600)	(1,358)	1,654	3,591	5,153	4,074	2,046	961
	Net Present value= +3520 (sum of 9)

Table 6.4

Tax Depreciation Schedules by Recovery-Period Class
Year(s)	3-Year	5-Year	7-Year	10-Year	15-Year	20-Year
1	33.33	20	14.29	10	5	3.75
2	44.45	32	24.49	18	9.5	7.22
3	14.81	19.2	17.49	14.4	8.55	6.68
4	7.41	11.52	12.49	11.52	7.7	6.18
5		11.52	8.93	9.22	6.93	5.71
6		5.76	8.92	7.37	6.23	5.28
7			8.93	6.55	5.9	4.89
8			4.45	6.55	5.9	4.52
9				6.56	5.9	4.46
10				6.55	5.9	4.46
11				3.29	5.9	4.46
12					5.9	4.46
13					5.91	4.46
14					5.9	4.46
15					5.91	4.46
16					2.99	4.46
17-20						4.46
21						2.23

Table 6.5

			Period
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Sales		523	12887	32610	48901	35834	19717
2	Cost of goods sold		837	7729	19552	29345	21492	11830
3	Other Costs	4000	2200	1210	1331	1464	1611	1772
4	Tax depreciation		2000	3200	1920	1152	576
5	Pretax profit (1-2-3-4)	-4000	-4514	748	9807	16940	11579	5539	1949
6	Taxes at 35%	-1400	-1580	262	3432	5929	4053	1939	682

Table 6.6

			Period
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Sales		523	12887	32610	48901	35834	19717
2	Cost of goods sold		837	7729	19552	29345	21492	11830
3	Other costs	4000	2200	1210	1331	1464	1611	1772
4	Tax	-1400	-1580	262	3432	5929	4053	1939	682
5	Cash flow from operations (1-2-3-4)	-2600	-934	3686	8295	12163	8678	4176	-682
6	Change in working capital		-550	-739	-1972	-1629	1307	1581	2002
7	Capital investment and disposal	-10000							1949
8	Net cash flow (5+6+7)	-12600	-1484	2947	6323	10534	9985	5757	3269
9	Present Value= +3802 (sum of 9)	-12600	-1237	2047	3659	5080	4013	1928	912
	Net present value= +3802 (sum of 9)

7.1

Plotting data Fig 7.1
	Equities	Bonds	Bills		1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905	1906	1907	1908	1909	1910	1911	1912	1913	1914	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922	1923	1924	1925	1926	1927	1928	1929	1930	1931	1932	1933	1934	1935	1936	1937	1938	1939	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948	1949	1950	1951	1952	1953	1954	1955	1956	1957	1958	1959	1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1900	1.00	1.00	1.00	Equities	1.00	1.24	1.47	1.55	1.33	1.70	2.08	2.16	1.53	2.24	2.69	2.46	2.60	2.79	2.57	2.43	3.37	3.59	2.91	3.48	4.20	3.45	3.85	5.03	5.18	6.58	8.44	9.24	12.30	17.06	14.58	10.46	5.87	5.29	8.34	8.70	12.53	16.58	10.84	13.89	14.29	13.26	11.95	13.86	17.78	21.58	29.78	28.02	29.01	29.64	35.67	46.17	55.75	63.24	63.61	95.48	119.55	129.40	116.09	168.32	190.44	192.01	244.70	219.72	265.71	308.62	353.13	322.38	414.85	473.70	421.87	422.01	496.62	585.91	477.42	341.89	473.43	599.30	583.50	637.61	800.60	1,070.16	1,030.03	1,222.75	1,509.69	1,555.69	2,062.29	2,394.21	2,448.67	2,888.00	3,730.54	3,499.96	4,697.09	5,118.31	5,695.73	5,692.05	7,766.72	9,414.13	12,359.92	15,255.97	18,850.17	16,796.60	14,953.34	11,834.11	15,578.51
1901	1.24	1.04	1.04	Bonds	1.00	1.04	1.07	1.09	1.13	1.15	1.19	1.22	1.23	1.28	1.31	1.35	1.40	1.45	1.49	1.55	1.60	1.65	1.70	1.65	1.66	1.76	1.98	2.05	2.17	2.31	2.44	2.63	2.86	2.86	2.96	3.10	2.94	3.43	3.43	3.77	3.96	4.26	4.27	4.50	4.77	5.06	5.11	5.27	5.38	5.53	6.13	6.12	5.96	6.16	6.56	6.57	6.31	6.38	6.61	7.09	7.00	6.61	7.10	6.67	6.52	7.41	7.49	8.00	8.10	8.38	8.44	8.75	7.95	7.93	7.52	8.43	9.55	10.09	9.98	10.42	11.37	13.28	13.19	13.03	12.87	12.36	12.59	17.68	17.79	20.55	26.91	33.51	32.60	35.75	42.23	44.84	53.49	57.80	68.34	63.03	82.99	82.22	95.26	107.70	98.05	119.11	123.51	145.54	147.65
1902	1.47	1.07	1.09	Bills	1.00	1.04	1.09	1.14	1.20	1.25	1.31	1.38	1.47	1.53	1.59	1.67	1.73	1.81	1.91	2.01	2.08	2.14	2.24	2.37	2.50	2.70	2.88	3.02	3.18	3.31	3.44	3.55	3.66	3.79	3.98	4.07	4.11	4.15	4.17	4.17	4.18	4.19	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.20	4.21	4.23	4.24	4.26	4.27	4.29	4.33	4.38	4.43	4.50	4.57	4.65	4.69	4.77	4.88	5.04	5.12	5.27	5.41	5.52	5.67	5.85	6.06	6.29	6.59	6.87	7.23	7.70	8.21	8.57	8.90	9.51	10.27	10.87	11.42	12.01	12.87	14.20	15.80	18.12	20.04	21.80	23.95	25.79	27.38	28.88	30.71	33.29	35.89	37.89	39.22	40.36	41.93	44.28	46.59	49.04	51.42	53.82	57.00	59.18	60.15	60.77
1903	1.55	1.09	1.14
1904	1.33	1.13	1.20
1905	1.70	1.15	1.25
1906	2.08	1.19	1.31
1907	2.16	1.22	1.38
1908	1.53	1.23	1.47
1909	2.24	1.28	1.53
1910	2.69	1.31	1.59
1911	2.46	1.35	1.67
1912	2.60	1.40	1.73
1913	2.79	1.45	1.81
1914	2.57	1.49	1.91
1915	2.43	1.55	2.01
1916	3.37	1.60	2.08
1917	3.59	1.65	2.14
1918	2.91	1.70	2.24
1919	3.48	1.65	2.37
1920	4.20	1.66	2.50
1921	3.45	1.76	2.70
1922	3.85	1.98	2.88
1923	5.03	2.05	3.02
1924	5.18	2.17	3.18
1925	6.58	2.31	3.31
1926	8.44	2.44	3.44
1927	9.24	2.63	3.55
1928	12.30	2.86	3.66
1929	17.06	2.86	3.79
1930	14.58	2.96	3.98
1931	10.46	3.10	4.07
1932	5.87	2.94	4.11
1933	5.29	3.43	4.15
1934	8.34	3.43	4.17
1935	8.70	3.77	4.17
1936	12.53	3.96	4.18
1937	16.58	4.26	4.19
1938	10.84	4.27	4.20
1939	13.89	4.50	4.20
1940	14.29	4.77	4.20
1941	13.26	5.06	4.20
1942	11.95	5.11	4.20
1943	13.86	5.27	4.21
1944	17.78	5.38	4.23
1945	21.58	5.53	4.24
1946	29.78	6.13	4.26
1947	28.02	6.12	4.27
1948	29.01	5.96	4.29
1949	29.64	6.16	4.33
1950	35.67	6.56	4.38
1951	46.17	6.57	4.43
1952	55.75	6.31	4.50
1953	63.24	6.38	4.57
1954	63.61	6.61	4.65
1955	95.48	7.09	4.69
1956	119.55	7.00	4.77
1957	129.40	6.61	4.88
1958	116.09	7.10	5.04
1959	168.32	6.67	5.12
1960	190.44	6.52	5.27
1961	192.01	7.41	5.41
1962	244.70	7.49	5.52
1963	219.72	8.00	5.67
1964	265.71	8.10	5.85
1965	308.62	8.38	6.06
1966	353.13	8.44	6.29
1967	322.38	8.75	6.59
1968	414.85	7.95	6.87
1969	473.70	7.93	7.23
1970	421.87	7.52	7.70
1971	422.01	8.43	8.21
1972	496.62	9.55	8.57
1973	585.91	10.09	8.90
1974	477.42	9.98	9.51
1975	341.89	10.42	10.27
1976	473.43	11.37	10.87
1977	599.30	13.28	11.42
1978	583.50	13.19	12.01
1979	637.61	13.03	12.87
1980	800.60	12.87	14.20
1981	1,070.16	12.36	15.80
1982	1,030.03	12.59	18.12
1983	1,222.75	17.68	20.04
1984	1,509.69	17.79	21.80
1985	1,555.69	20.55	23.95
1986	2,062.29	26.91	25.79
1987	2,394.21	33.51	27.38
1988	2,448.67	32.60	28.88
1989	2,888.00	35.75	30.71
1990	3,730.54	42.23	33.29
1991	3,499.96	44.84	35.89
1992	4,697.09	53.49	37.89
1993	5,118.31	57.80	39.22
1994	5,695.73	68.34	40.36
1995	5,692.05	63.03	41.93
1996	7,766.72	82.99	44.28
1997	9,414.13	82.22	46.59
1998	12,359.92	95.26	49.04
1999	15,255.97	107.70	51.42
2000	18,850.17	98.05	53.82
2001	16,796.60	119.11	57.00
2002	14,953.34	123.51	59.18
2003	11,834.11	145.54	60.15
2004	15,578.51	147.65	60.77

7.2

Plotting data Fig 7.2
	Equities	Bonds	Bills		1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905	1906	1907	1908	1909	1910	1911	1912	1913	1914	1915	0.916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922	1923	1924	1925	1926	1927	1928	1929	1930	1931	1932	1933	1934	1935	1936	1937	1938	1939	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948	1949	1950	1951	1952	1953	1954	1955	1956	1957	1958	1959	1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1900	1.00	1.00	1.00	Equities	1.00	1.23	1.44	1.51	1.27	1.59	1.95	2.01	1.38	2.00	2.44	2.20	2.27	2.41	2.18	2.04	2.77	2.64	1.81	1.80	1.89	1.52	1.89	2.54	2.55	3.24	4.01	4.45	6.05	8.47	7.23	5.52	3.42	3.44	5.39	5.52	7.72	10.08	6.39	8.43	8.71	8.01	6.58	6.98	8.68	10.32	13.92	11.09	10.53	10.48	12.84	15.71	17.92	20.14	20.14	30.37	37.89	39.87	34.72	49.47	55.15	54.79	69.36	61.53	73.20	84.02	94.32	83.31	104.05	113.45	95.22	90.29	102.80	117.28	87.84	56.06	72.54	87.61	79.90	80.08	88.74	105.53	93.24	106.56	126.75	125.65	160.51	184.26	180.50	203.87	251.65	222.51	289.74	306.82	332.30	323.44	430.40	504.92	651.82	791.78	952.74	821.14	719.86	556.47	719.03
1901	1.23	1.03	1.04	Bonds	1.00	1.03	1.05	1.06	1.07	1.08	1.11	1.14	1.11	1.15	1.19	1.21	1.22	1.25	1.26	1.30	1.32	1.21	1.06	0.85	0.75	0.77	0.97	1.04	1.07	1.14	1.16	1.27	1.41	1.42	1.47	1.64	1.71	2.23	2.22	2.39	2.44	2.59	2.52	2.73	2.91	3.06	2.81	2.66	2.63	2.65	2.87	2.42	2.16	2.18	2.36	2.23	2.03	2.03	2.09	2.25	2.22	2.04	2.12	1.96	1.89	2.12	2.12	2.24	2.23	2.28	2.25	2.26	1.99	1.90	1.70	1.80	1.98	2.02	1.84	1.71	1.74	1.94	1.81	1.64	1.43	1.22	1.14	1.54	1.49	1.66	2.09	2.58	2.40	2.52	2.85	2.85	3.30	3.46	3.99	3.58	4.60	4.41	5.02	5.59	4.96	5.82	5.95	6.84	6.81
1902	1.44	1.05	1.07	Bills	1.00	1.04	1.07	1.11	1.15	1.18	1.22	1.29	1.32	1.37	1.44	1.49	1.51	1.57	1.62	1.68	1.71	1.58	1.39	1.22	1.13	1.18	1.42	1.52	1.56	1.63	1.63	1.71	1.80	1.89	1.97	2.15	2.40	2.70	2.69	2.65	2.57	2.55	2.48	2.55	2.56	2.54	2.31	2.12	2.06	2.03	1.99	1.69	1.56	1.53	1.58	1.51	1.44	1.46	1.47	1.49	1.51	1.50	1.51	1.50	1.52	1.54	1.57	1.59	1.61	1.65	1.68	1.70	1.72	1.73	1.74	1.76	1.77	1.78	1.75	1.68	1.67	1.67	1.64	1.62	1.57	1.56	1.64	1.75	1.83	1.93	2.01	2.11	2.13	2.17	2.25	2.28	2.34	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.45	2.50	2.59	2.67	2.72	2.79	2.85	2.83	2.80
1903	1.51	1.06	1.11
1904	1.27	1.07	1.15
1905	1.59	1.08	1.18
1906	1.95	1.11	1.22
1907	2.01	1.14	1.29
1908	1.38	1.11	1.32
1909	2.00	1.15	1.37
1910	2.44	1.19	1.44
1911	2.20	1.21	1.49
1912	2.27	1.22	1.51
1913	2.41	1.25	1.57
1914	2.18	1.26	1.62
1915	2.04	1.30	1.68
0.916	2.77	1.32	1.71
1917	2.64	1.21	1.58
1918	1.81	1.06	1.39
1919	1.80	0.85	1.22
1920	1.89	0.75	1.13
1921	1.52	0.77	1.18
1922	1.89	0.97	1.42
1923	2.54	1.04	1.52
1924	2.55	1.07	1.56
1925	3.24	1.14	1.63
1926	4.01	1.16	1.63
1927	4.45	1.27	1.71
1928	6.05	1.41	1.80
1929	8.47	1.42	1.89
1930	7.23	1.47	1.97
1931	5.52	1.64	2.15
1932	3.42	1.71	2.40
1933	3.44	2.23	2.70
1934	5.39	2.22	2.69
1935	5.52	2.39	2.65
1936	7.72	2.44	2.57
1937	10.08	2.59	2.55
1938	6.39	2.52	2.48
1939	8.43	2.73	2.55
1940	8.71	2.91	2.56
1941	8.01	3.06	2.54
1942	6.58	2.81	2.31
1943	6.98	2.66	2.12
1944	8.68	2.63	2.06
1945	10.32	2.65	2.03
1946	13.92	2.87	1.99
1947	11.09	2.42	1.69
1948	10.53	2.16	1.56
1949	10.48	2.18	1.53
1950	12.84	2.36	1.58
1951	15.71	2.23	1.51
1952	17.92	2.03	1.44
1953	20.14	2.03	1.46
1954	20.14	2.09	1.47
1955	30.37	2.25	1.49
1956	37.89	2.22	1.51
1957	39.87	2.04	1.50
1958	34.72	2.12	1.51
1959	49.47	1.96	1.50
1960	55.15	1.89	1.52
1961	54.79	2.12	1.54
1962	69.36	2.12	1.57
1963	61.53	2.24	1.59
1964	73.20	2.23	1.61
1965	84.02	2.28	1.65
1966	94.32	2.25	1.68
1967	83.31	2.26	1.70
1968	104.05	1.99	1.72
1969	113.45	1.90	1.73
1970	95.22	1.70	1.74
1971	90.29	1.80	1.76
1972	102.80	1.98	1.77
1973	117.28	2.02	1.78
1974	87.84	1.84	1.75
1975	56.06	1.71	1.68
1976	72.54	1.74	1.67
1977	87.61	1.94	1.67
1978	79.90	1.81	1.64
1979	80.08	1.64	1.62
1980	88.74	1.43	1.57
1981	105.53	1.22	1.56
1982	93.24	1.14	1.64
1983	106.56	1.54	1.75
1984	126.75	1.49	1.83
1985	125.65	1.66	1.93
1986	160.51	2.09	2.01
1987	184.26	2.58	2.11
1988	180.50	2.40	2.13
1989	203.87	2.52	2.17
1990	251.65	2.85	2.25
1991	222.51	2.85	2.28
1992	289.74	3.30	2.34
1993	306.82	3.46	2.35
1994	332.30	3.99	2.35
1995	323.44	3.58	2.38
1996	430.40	4.60	2.45
1997	504.92	4.41	2.50
1998	651.82	5.02	2.59
1999	791.78	5.59	2.67
2000	952.74	4.96	2.72
2001	821.14	5.82	2.79
2002	719.86	5.95	2.85
2003	556.47	6.84	2.83
2004	719.03	6.81	2.80

7.3

Denmark	4.3
Belgium	4.7	Denmark	Belgium	Switzerland	Spain	Canada	Ireland	Germany	UK	Average	Netherlands	USA	Sweden	South Africa	Australia	France	Japan	Italy
Switzerland	5.1	4.3	4.7	5.1	5.3	5.8	5.9	5.9	6.3	6.4	6.6	7.6	8.1	8.2	8.6	9.3	10	10.7
Spain	5.3
Canada	5.8
Ireland	5.9
Germany	5.9
UK	6.3
Average	6.4
Netherlands	6.6
USA	7.6
Sweden	8.1
South Africa	8.2
Australia	8.6
France	9.3
Japan	10
Italy	10.7

7.4

1900	24.2%
1901	18.0%
1902	6.1%	1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905	1906	1907	1908	1909	1910	1911	1912	1913	1914	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922	1923	1924	1925	1926	1927	1928	1929	1930	1931	1932	1933	1934	1935	1936	1937	1938	1939	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948	1949	1950	1951	1952	1953	1954	1955	1956	1957	1958	1959	1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
1903	-14.6%	24.2%	18.0%	6.1%	-14.6%	28.1%	22.1%	4.1%	-29.3%	46.8%	20.0%	-8.5%	5.7%	7.2%	-7.8%	-5.5%	38.8%	6.4%	-18.9%	19.6%	20.6%	-17.9%	11.6%	30.6%	3.0%	27.0%	28.3%	9.5%	33.1%	38.7%	-14.6%	-28.3%	-43.9%	-9.8%	57.6%	4.4%	44.0%	32.3%	-34.6%	28.2%	2.9%	-7.2%	-9.9%	16.0%	28.3%	21.4%	38.0%	-5.9%	3.6%	2.2%	20.3%	29.4%	20.8%	13.4%	0.6%	50.1%	25.2%	8.2%	-10.3%	45.0%	13.1%	0.8%	27.4%	-10.2%	20.9%	16.2%	14.4%	-8.7%	28.7%	14.2%	-10.9%	0.0%	17.7%	18.0%	-18.5%	-28.4%	38.5%	26.6%	-2.6%	9.3%	25.6%	33.7%	-3.8%	18.7%	23.5%	3.1%	32.6%	16.1%	2.3%	17.9%	29.2%	-6.2%	34.2%	9.0%	11.3%	-0.1%	36.5%	21.2%	31.3%	23.4%	23.6%	-10.9%	-11.0%	-20.9%
1904	28.1%
1905	22.1%
1906	4.1%
1907	-29.3%
1908	46.8%
1909	20.0%
1910	-8.5%
1911	5.7%
1912	7.2%
1913	-7.8%
1914	-5.5%
1915	38.8%
1916	6.4%
1917	-18.9%
1918	19.6%
1919	20.6%
1920	-17.9%
1921	11.6%
1922	30.6%
1923	3.0%
1924	27.0%
1925	28.3%
1926	9.5%
1927	33.1%
1928	38.7%
1929	-14.6%
1930	-28.3%
1931	-43.9%
1932	-9.8%
1933	57.6%
1934	4.4%
1935	44.0%
1936	32.3%
1937	-34.6%
1938	28.2%
1939	2.9%
1940	-7.2%
1941	-9.9%
1942	16.0%
1943	28.3%
1944	21.4%
1945	38.0%
1946	-5.9%
1947	3.6%
1948	2.2%
1949	20.3%
1950	29.4%
1951	20.8%
1952	13.4%
1953	0.6%
1954	50.1%
1955	25.2%
1956	8.2%
1957	-10.3%
1958	45.0%
1959	13.1%
1960	0.8%
1961	27.4%
1962	-10.2%
1963	20.9%
1964	16.2%
1965	14.4%
1966	-8.7%
1967	28.7%
1968	14.2%
1969	-10.9%
1970	0.0%
1971	17.7%
1972	18.0%
1973	-18.5%
1974	-28.4%
1975	38.5%
1976	26.6%
1977	-2.6%
1978	9.3%
1979	25.6%
1980	33.7%
1981	-3.8%
1982	18.7%
1983	23.5%
1984	3.1%
1985	32.6%
1986	16.1%
1987	2.3%
1988	17.9%
1989	29.2%
1990	-6.2%
1991	34.2%
1992	9.0%
1993	11.3%
1994	-0.1%
1995	36.5%
1996	21.2%
1997	31.3%
1998	23.4%
1999	23.6%
2000	-10.9%
2001	-11.0%
2002	-20.9%