6-7 Page Case study

Elements

Omitted

Needs Improvement

Acceptable

Target

Score

Develop a time series plot and identify seasonality

Full Credit: (5 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

Paper is poorly written and time series is missing or very inaccurate. Does not address seasonality.

3 points

Writing is average and with the time series included and mostly correct.

5 points

Paper is well written with time series plot included (represented in yearly time frames to illustrate) and seasonality identified.

Exponential smoothing is illustrated and mentions appropriateness for data set is mentioned.

Full Credit: (5 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

Exponential smoothing is missing / no explanation of its meaning.

3 points

Exponential smoothing included but computed incorrectly with faulty explanation.

5 points

The Exponential smoothing is included and correct with detailed, accurate explanation.

Use regression to build a linear trend model. Comment on the goodness-of-fit of this model. How well does R2 explain the variance in the data?

Full Credit: (5 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

The regression or linear trend is missing/not included. Does not cover how R2 explains the variance in the data.

3 points

The regression / linear trend is included but has some errors with faulty description

5 points

The regression and linear trend is included and correct with detailed description.

Determine seasonality indices and apply them to the trend to form the final forecast for 2007

Full credit: (7 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

The seasonality indices are missing/computed incorrectly

4 points

The seasonality indices are added to the linear trend but has some errors with faulty description

7 points

The regression trend with seasonality is included and correct with detailed description.

Plot the predictions for both approaches and shows how the technique fit the data

Full credit: (7 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

Incorrect answer but includes graph or description in attempt to partially answer the question.

4 points

Attempts to measure accuracy of the predictions using MAD, MSE or MAPE measures with some errors

7 points

Correct answer using one of the measures – MAD, MSE or MAPE - with detailed description.

Make forecasts for the next 12 months of 2007 using these techniques

Full credit: (7 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

omitted with to no explanation.

4 points

info included but partly incorrect with limited description.

7 points

information is included and correct; detailed description in discussion.

Give recommendation on making accurate forecasts for 2007 based on MAPE. Full credit: (4 points)

0 points

Failed to attempt or effort adds no value

1 point

No recommendations included and/or poorly written descriptions.

2 points

Includes recommendation with minimal supporting evidence.

4 points

Thoughtful recommendation with strong evidence supporting the recommendation

Enrichment (+5)

0 Points

No submittal

1 point

No recommendations included and/or poorly written descriptions.

3 points

Includes recommendation with minimal supporting evidence.

5 points … uses Solver properly to determine alpha while minimizing MSE