Case Study Part 3

ANALYSIS OF TOP 3 COUNTRIES CORONA VIRUS NUMBERS

ANALYSIS OF TOP 3 COUNTRIES CORONA VIRUS NUMBERS 2

Analysis of top 3 countries Corona Virus numbers

Chelsea McCray

MSC 3370

June 10, 2020

a.What is the probability that a person chosen at random among the top 3 is from the US?

1662786/330790544= 0.005= 0.5%

b. What is the probability that a person chosen at random among the top 3 is from Russia?

337792/145927804= 0.0023= 0.23%

c. What is the probability that a person chosen at random among the top 3 is from Brazil?

327120/212393298= 0.0015= 0.15%

d. What is the probability that new cases arise in any of the three countries?

24469/2327698= 0.0105= 1.05%

e. What is the probability that new deaths occur in any of the three countries?

1083/2327698= 0.0005= 0.05%

f. Where is the probability that active cases increase in any of the three countries?

1542373/2327698= 0.6626= 66.26%

g. What is the probability that the number of serious critical condition in any of the three

countries?

28300/2327698= 0.0122= 1.22%

h. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new cases given that is in the US?

11727/1662786= 0.0071= 0.71%

i.Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new cases given that is in Russia?

8894/337792= 0.0263= 2.63%

j. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new cases given that is in Brazil?

3848/327120= 0.0118= 1.18%

k. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new deaths given that is in the US?

748/1662786= 0.0004= 0.04%

l. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new deaths given that is in Russia?

150/337792= 0.0004= 0.04%

m. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of new deaths given that is in Brazil?

185/327120= 0.0006= 0.06%

n. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total deaths given that is in the US?

97102/1662786= 0.0584= 5.84%

o. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total deaths given that is in the Russia?

3249/337792= 0.0096= 0.96%

p. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total deaths given that is in Brazil?

20267/327120= 0.0620= 6.20%

q. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total recover given there is in the US?

385070/1662786= 0.2316= 23.16%

r. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total recover given that is in Russia?

99825/337792= 0.2955= 29.55%

s. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total recover given that is in Brazil?

125960/327120= 0.3851= 38.51%

t. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total active cases given that is in the US?

1150457/1662786= 0.6919= 69.19%

u. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total active cases given that is in Russia?

223374/337792= 0.6613= 66.13%

v. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of total active cases given that is in Brazil?

168542/327120= 0.5152= 51.52%

w. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of serious critical condition given that is in the US?

17682/1662786= 0.0106= 1.06%

x. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of serious critical condition given that is in Russia?

2300/337792= 0.0068= 0.68%

y. Based on the top 3, what is the probability of serious critical condition given that is in Brazil?

8318/327120= 0.0254= 2.54%

ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS

Based on the statistics on the corona virus numbers in the world, the United States of America, Russia and Brazil recorded the top three highest numbers as of 22nd May, 2020. United States has an estimated population of 330,790,544 persons, Russia has 145,927,804 persons while Brazil has 212,393,298 persons. It is generally believed that the higher the population in a country the more the numbers of the COVID-19 cases (Phelan, 2020). Therefore, since United States has generally the highest population in the world we expect a larger number of COVID-19 cases from it. From the findings above that there is a 69.19% chance of any active case coming from United States which is the highest, followed by Russia, 66.13% and Brazil has 51.52% chance.

The probability analysis above tells us that there is a 50-50 chance that a person who possesses any of the COVID-19 cases chosen at random is from the United States. Russia is the second with a probability of 0.23% despite the fact that it has a smaller population as compared to Brazil which has a probability of 0.15% of being chosen. United States however, has the lowest probability of recording new cases amongst the three countries. This might be due to greater civilization in the United States (Verity, 2020). Russia has greater chances of recording new cases with a probability of 2.63%.

From the data, we can see that there is generally more chances of deaths from the COVID-19 infections than the chances of contracting the virus (Nesteruk, 2020). The probabilities of recent new deaths are generally low across all the three countries although Brazil is slightly recording a higher new number of deaths than United States and Russia. Considering the total deaths recorded so far per country, Brazil portrays a greater probability of having more deaths with respect to its COVID-19 cases (prob-6.20%). United States is second with 5.84% chance of total deaths recorded while Russia is the least with 0.96%. Despite the fact that there is a greater probability of new cases of COVID-19 in Russia, chances of death are very low.

Brazil has the highest chance of recording total recoveries from its COVID-19 infections as compared to Russia and the United States, United States being the least among the three. If a person with a serious critical condition is chosen at random there is a higher chance that he/she is a Brazilian than being a Russian or American (Paules, 2020). Out of the total COVID-19 infections in Russia the probability of having a serious critical condition is 0.68% which is the least amongst the three countries. Analysis of the top three countries cases has indicated that there is a slightly high chance that we should expect increase in active COVID-19 cases (prob-66.26%). However, we expect very low chances of deaths occurring (prob-0.05) in any country.

References

Nesteruk, I. (2020). Statistics based predictions of coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading in mainland China. MedRxiv.

Paules, C. I., Marston, H. D., & Fauci, A. S. (2020). Coronavirus infections—more than just the common cold. Jama, 323(8), 707-708.

Phelan, A. L., Katz, R., & Gostin, L. O. (2020). The novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China: challenges for global health governance. Jama, 323(8), 709-710.

Verity, R., Okell, L. C., Dorigatti, I., Winskill, P., Whittaker, C., Imai, N., ... & Dighe, A. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet infectious diseases.