case study

ISDS 361B Fall 2020

Case Study: COVID-19

This case study will give you the opportunity to work with some real data related to the COVID-19

pandemic. The Excel data in the file “COVID-19 case data” shows the number of new COVID-19 cases in

Orange County, CA, by specimen collection date, each day from September 1, 2020 until November 8,

2020 (source: https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc, as of 11/16/20). Use these data,

along with what you have learned about forecasting, to write a report addressing each of the following:

1. Graph the time series and comment on the pattern using the terminology we have learned

(e.g., horizontal, trend, seasonal, cycles, random fluctuations).

2. Use an appropriate technique, based on the patterns you observed, to forecast the number of

new cases each day for the week of November 9 to November 15.

3. Comment on why you used whichever technique you chose in part 2. Why is it appropriate? If

you used exponential smoothing, how did you come up with a value for the smoothing

constant? If you used a simple moving average, how did you decide on the number of periods?

If you used linear regression, how did you decide whether or not to include seasonal dummies?

4. Comment on how accurate you expect your forecast to be. Should the reader expect the

actual values to precisely match your forecasted values? If not, about how much error would

you anticipate? You don’t have to do an exact calculation, just estimate it to give the reader

reasonable expectations. Would you expect it to be just as accurate in forecasting the number

of new cases in the first week December?

Additional instructions

You must submit two files and one video:

1. Your written report addressing each item in instructions. A short paragraph (i.e., a few

sentences) for each item would be sufficient. Tie it all together with an introductory paragraph

and a conclusion. Save and upload this file in pdf format. Keep in mind:

a. The maximum length is 2 pages, but there is no need for it to be that long. Shorter is

better as long as you respond to each item.

b. This file should contain only text – no Excel output. You may report numbers and

describe graphs, but you should not copy and paste them here. Just mention where

they are in your Excel file, which you will upload separately.

2. An Excel file showing all of your work.

3. A video posted to Flipgrid. In two minutes or less, explain your report to someone who knows

very little about analytics. Do not just read your report to the camera. Express it. Convey the

essence. Have fun with it! Your video will be hidden from other students until after the due

date.

Grading rubric (4 points possible)

ISDS 361B Fall 2020 Excel file executes appropriate analyses – 1 point

Written report addresses all of the questions and faithfully conveys the results of the analyses – 1 point

Written report is clear, organized properly, and formatted correctly – 1 point

Flipgrid video conveys the report effectively – 1 point