case 14
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Case16.3EditedAnswerKeyGuide.docxCase 16.3: Wagner Machine Works
The central issue in this case is whether or not a forecasting model could be developed using the data provided. The students should first plot the data to determine what type of pattern, if any, exists. By plotting this data they should be able to see an upward trend as well as a seasonal component. The following information is developed on this data and the regression model was run on the deseasonalized data:
|
Quarter |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
Seasonal Index |
1.0209 |
1.0562 |
0.8969 |
1.0193 |
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Regression Statistics |
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Multiple R |
0.983066144 |
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R Square |
0.966419044 |
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Adjusted R Square |
0.965840062 |
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Standard Error |
1652.905207 |
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Observations |
60 |
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ANOVA |
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Df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Significance F |
|
Regression |
1 |
4560330427 |
4560330427 |
1669.169406 |
1.91522E-44 |
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Residual |
58 |
158461546.1 |
2732095.623 |
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Total |
59 |
4718791973 |
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Coefficients |
Standard Error |
t Stat |
P-value |
Lower 95% |
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Intercept |
7047.816202 |
432.1693866 |
16.30799501 |
2.484E-23 |
6182.735833 |
|
Period |
503.4104542 |
12.32173948 |
40.85546971 |
1.91522E-44 |
478.7458313 |
|
Year |
Quarter |
Period |
Unadjusted Forecast |
Seasonal Index |
Adjusted Forecast |
|
2001 |
Quarter 1 |
61 |
37756 |
1.0209 |
38545 |
|
|
Quarter 2 |
62 |
38259 |
1.0562 |
40408 |
|
|
Quarter 3 |
63 |
38763 |
0.8969 |
34765 |
|
|
Quarter 4 |
64 |
39266 |
1.0193 |
40023 |
|
2002 |
Quarter 1 |
65 |
39769 |
1.0209 |
40600 |
|
|
Quarter 2 |
66 |
40273 |
1.0562 |
42535 |
|
|
Quarter 3 |
67 |
40776 |
0.8969 |
36571 |
|
|
Quarter 4 |
68 |
41280 |
1.0193 |
42075 |
|
2003 |
Quarter 1 |
69 |
41783 |
1.0209 |
42656 |
|
|
Quarter 2 |
70 |
42287 |
1.0562 |
44662 |
|
|
Quarter 3 |
71 |
42790 |
0.8969 |
38377 |
|
|
Quarter 4 |
72 |
43293 |
1.0193 |
44127 |
The students should prepare a report that includes graphs and tables showing the results of their
