Case study Whole Foods

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Case_07_Whole_Foods_Market_F1776X.xlsx

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This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case "Whole Foods Market: The Deutsche Bank Report," (UVA-F-1776).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Michael J. Schill, Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2017 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail [email protected]. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.
Rev. Feb. 20, 2017

Exh 1

Exhibit 1
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Share Price Performance of Whole Foods Market indexed to S&P 500 Index (January 2005 to April 2014)
-- Adj Prices --
WFM S&P500 Whole Foods Market S&P500 Index matched to WFM
Jan-05 19.10 1,181.27 $19 $19
Feb-05 21.99 1,203.60 $22 $19
Mar-05 21.82 1,180.59 $22 $19
Apr-05 21.34 1,156.85 $21 $19
May-05 25.47 1,191.50 $25 $19
Jun-05 25.32 1,191.33 $25 $19
Jul-05 29.30 1,234.18 $29 $20
Aug-05 27.74 1,220.33 $28 $20
Sep-05 28.85 1,228.81 $29 $20
Oct-05 30.99 1,207.01 $31 $20
Nov-05 31.67 1,249.48 $32 $20
Dec-05 33.28 1,248.29 $33 $20
Jan-06 32.67 1,280.08 $33 $21
Feb-06 28.25 1,280.66 $28 $21
Mar-06 29.38 1,294.87 $29 $21
Apr-06 27.21 1,310.61 $27 $21
May-06 28.81 1,270.09 $29 $21
Jun-06 28.65 1,270.20 $29 $21
Jul-06 25.55 1,276.66 $26 $21
Aug-06 23.82 1,303.82 $24 $21
Sep-06 26.40 1,335.85 $26 $22
Oct-06 28.43 1,377.94 $28 $22
Source: Yahoo! Finance, Case writer analysis Nov-06 21.73 1,400.63 $22 $23
Dec-06 20.90 1,418.30 $21 $23
Jan-07 19.31 1,438.24 $19 $23
Feb-07 21.36 1,406.82 $21 $23
Mar-07 20.05 1,420.86 $20 $23
Apr-07 21.00 1,482.37 $21 $24
May-07 18.45 1,530.62 $18 $25
Jun-07 17.19 1,503.35 $17 $24
Jul-07 16.70 1,455.27 $17 $24
Aug-07 19.96 1,473.99 $20 $24
Sep-07 22.08 1,526.75 $22 $25
Oct-07 22.42 1,549.38 $22 $25
Nov-07 19.46 1,481.14 $19 $24
Dec-07 18.46 1,468.36 $18 $24
Jan-08 17.95 1,378.55 $18 $22
Feb-08 16.00 1,330.63 $16 $22
Mar-08 15.00 1,322.70 $15 $21
Apr-08 14.94 1,385.59 $15 $22
May-08 13.28 1,400.38 $13 $23
Jun-08 10.84 1,280.00 $11 $21
Jul-08 10.24 1,267.38 $10 $20
Aug-08 8.45 1,282.83 $8 $21
Sep-08 9.25 1,166.36 $9 $19
Oct-08 4.95 968.75 $5 $16
Nov-08 4.89 896.24 $5 $14
Dec-08 4.36 903.25 $4 $15
Jan-09 4.73 825.88 $5 $13
Feb-09 5.61 735.09 $6 $12
Mar-09 7.76 797.87 $8 $13
Apr-09 9.57 872.81 $10 $14
May-09 8.71 919.14 $9 $15
Jun-09 8.76 919.32 $9 $15
Jul-09 11.17 987.48 $11 $16
Aug-09 13.43 1,020.62 $13 $17
Sep-09 14.08 1,057.08 $14 $17
Oct-09 14.80 1,036.19 $15 $17
Nov-09 11.84 1,095.63 $12 $18
Dec-09 12.68 1,115.10 $13 $18
Jan-10 12.57 1,073.87 $13 $17
Feb-10 16.39 1,104.49 $16 $18
Mar-10 16.69 1,169.43 $17 $19
Apr-10 18.02 1,186.69 $18 $19
May-10 18.67 1,089.41 $19 $18
Jun-10 16.63 1,030.71 $17 $17
Jul-10 17.53 1,101.60 $18 $18
Aug-10 16.06 1,049.33 $16 $17
Sep-10 17.14 1,141.20 $17 $18
Oct-10 18.35 1,183.26 $18 $19
Nov-10 21.80 1,180.55 $22 $19
Dec-10 23.36 1,257.64 $23 $20
Jan-11 23.93 1,286.12 $24 $21
Feb-11 27.10 1,327.22 $27 $21
Mar-11 30.49 1,325.83 $30 $21
Apr-11 29.08 1,363.61 $29 $22
May-11 28.34 1,345.20 $28 $22
Jun-11 29.45 1,320.64 $29 $21
Jul-11 30.96 1,292.28 $31 $21
Aug-11 30.65 1,218.89 $31 $20
Sep-11 30.36 1,131.42 $30 $18
Oct-11 33.53 1,253.30 $34 $20
Nov-11 31.66 1,246.96 $32 $20
Dec-11 32.35 1,257.60 $32 $20
Jan-12 34.48 1,312.41 $34 $21
Feb-12 37.61 1,365.68 $38 $22
Mar-12 38.75 1,408.47 $39 $23
Apr-12 38.76 1,397.91 $39 $23
May-12 41.34 1,310.33 $41 $21
Jun-12 44.54 1,362.16 $45 $22
Jul-12 42.88 1,379.32 $43 $22
Aug-12 45.21 1,406.58 $45 $23
Sep-12 45.57 1,440.67 $46 $23
Oct-12 44.35 1,412.16 $44 $23
Nov-12 43.68 1,416.18 $44 $23
Dec-12 43.59 1,426.19 $44 $23
Jan-13 46.13 1,498.11 $46 $24
Feb-13 41.04 1,514.68 $41 $24
Mar-13 41.58 1,569.19 $42 $25
Apr-13 42.43 1,597.57 $42 $26
May-13 49.83 1,630.74 $50 $26
Jun-13 49.46 1,606.28 $49 $26
Jul-13 53.51 1,685.73 $54 $27
Aug-13 50.78 1,632.97 $51 $26
Sep-13 56.41 1,681.55 $56 $27
Oct-13 60.88 1,756.54 $61 $28
Nov-13 54.58 1,805.81 $55 $29
Dec-13 55.77 1,848.36 $56 $30
Jan-14 50.51 1,782.59 $51 $29
Feb-14 52.24 1,859.45 $52 $30
Mar-14 49.01 1,872.34 $49 $30
Apr-14 48.15 1,883.95 $48 $30
Whole Foods Market 38359 38384 38412 38443 38474 38504 38534 38565 38596 38628 38657 38687 38720 38749 38777 38810 38838 38869 38901 38930 38961 38992 39022 39052 39085 39114 39142 39174 39203 39234 39265 39295 39329 39356 39387 39419 39449 39479 39510 39539 39569 39601 39630 39661 39693 39722 39755 39783 39815 39846 39874 39904 39934 39965 39995 40028 40057 40087 40119 40148 40182 40210 40238 40269 40301 40330 40360 40392 40422 40452 40483 40513 40546 40575 40603 40634 40665 40695 40725 40756 40787 40819 40848 40878 40911 40940 40969 41001 41030 41061 41092 41122 41156 41183 41214 41246 41276 41306 41334 41365 41395 41428 41456 41487 41520 41548 41579 41610 41641 41673 41701 41730 19.103386 21.989618 21.818708000000001 21.341726000000001 25.473002999999999 25.316662000000001 29.296054999999999 27.740151999999998 28.853964000000001 30.991783000000 002 31.669115000000001 33.281815000000002 32.666373999999998 28.248653000000001 29.380721999999999 27.205362000000001 28.809849 28.650288 25.550699000000002 23.822438999999999 26.403722999999999 28.430745999999999 21.732775 20.899982000000001 19.309546999999998 21.357191 20.051705999999999 21.003157000000002 18.449020000000001 17.192153999999999 16.704359 19.960443000000001 22.080057 22.418023999999999 19.463042999999999 18.462966999999999 17.947689 15.995469999999999 15.003432 14.942202 13.275853 10.844999 10.237185 8.4547969999999992 9.2490220000000001 4.9500510000000002 4.8854050000000004 4.359 4.7330240000000003 5.6103649999999998 7.7575419999999999 9.5722529999999999 8.7133830000000003 8.7641749999999998 11.169936999999999 13.427937 14.079015999999999 14.803977 11.844105000000001 12.675269999999999 12.569065 16.387808 16.69257 18.017814999999999 18.668896 16.632539999999999 17.532969000000001 16.064577 17.135857000000001 18.354897999999999 21.804234999999998 23.360361000000001 23.926248999999999 27.095749000000001 30.491972000000001 29.084223000000001 28.342752000000001 29.452742000000001 30.961351000000001 30.654989 30.361505999999999 33.527363000000001 31.658529000000001 32.346558000000002 34.481704999999998 37.607089999999999 38.752907 38.757365999999998 41.342120999999999 44.537098 42.883076000000003 45.205249999999999 45.573886999999999 44.352654000000001 43.683551999999999 43.593063000000001 46.130431999999999 41.035716999999998 41.577300999999999 42.431179 49.829731000000002 49.464607000000001 53.506878 50.782435999999997 56.414313999999997 60.879241999999998 54.582053999999999 55.768203999999997 50.509487 52.239528999999997 49.011406000000001 48.147689999999997 S & P500 Index matched to WFM 38359 38384 38412 38443 38474 38504 38534 38565 38596 386 28 38657 38687 38720 38749 38777 38810 38838 38869 38901 38930 38961 38992 39022 39052 39085 39114 39142 39174 39203 39234 39265 39295 39329 39356 39387 39419 39449 39479 39510 39539 39569 39601 39630 39661 39693 39722 39755 39783 39815 39846 39874 39904 39934 39965 39995 40028 40057 40087 40119 40148 40182 40210 40238 40269 40301 40330 40360 40392 40422 40452 40483 40513 40546 40575 40603 40634 40665 40695 40725 40756 40787 40819 40848 40878 40911 40940 40969 41001 41030 41061 41092 41122 41156 41183 41214 41246 41276 41306 41334 41365 41395 41428 41456 41487 41520 41548 41579 41610 41641 41673 41701 41730 19.103386 19.464503916825667 19.092388231629613 18.708467379557078 19.268824260011272 19.266074324675586 19.959042019082855 19.735059556350219 19.872198972559865 19.519650661153545 20.206470961831645 20.187227349570808 20.701330852645373 20.710711818687422 20.940513951503714 21.195059567252212 20.539773688004779 20.541552354925667 20.646024200525403 21.085251704717912 21.60323829230741 22.283913188400589 22.650854737426531 22.936613002221044 23.259079824616343 22.75095787238989 22.978012042842849 23.972746052848333 24.753040446927681 24.312032302841935 23.534487844098273 23.837225411939382 24.690455257215454 25.056425537826591 23.952854933701602 23.746177508516819 22.293779796735986 21.518821419591205 21.390577343302162 22.407628662433066 22.646811761291403 20.700037811845934 20.495948457404285 20.745803590131764 18.86226233728442 15.666532523613865 14.493907563662829 14.607272776210811 13.35605260277149 11.887805745320973 12.903077394872913 14.114999969654042 14.864244581937998 14.867155395380054 15.969431972219425 16.505369131270317 17.094996140112841 16.757164811683133 17.718423852572617 18.033290364991011 17.366523048052191 17.86170668422292 18.911911200085179 19.191036445029081 17.617835075315909 16.668543098239258 17.814969653694195 16.969663879923932 18.455376669200568 19.135567928316558 19.091742697716068 20.338434268898819 20.799009786774299 21.463674675263327 21.441195485373463 22.052170507898957 21.754445195463514 21.357264254950611 20.898629268588561 19.711772967954264 18.297216946781553 20.26 8248753037778 20.165717455123385 20.337786762012922 21.224169787848442 22.085647466159216 22.777641919179331 22.60686762606159 21.190530964995638 22.02872203873855 22.306230497526009 22.74707677701921 23.298378425932611 22.837317265763783 22.902328645454698 23.064207582479938 24.22729166859683 24.495261242694404 25.376789931772102 25.835748663491149 26.372171448663483 25.976607294307016 27.261464317626789 26.408234488522623 27.193866872508892 28.406597832282287 29.203387892431042 29.891501233908581 28.827874765013405 30.070847105418025 30.279303197523696 30.467058766660383

Exh 2

Exhibit 2
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Select Market Share Data
Grocery Sales by Channel
Actual 2011 Forecasted 2016
Traditional Supermarkets 40.1% 37.4%
Supercenters 17.2% 18.5%
Convenience Stores 15.1% 15.6%
Wholesale Clubs 8.5% 9.0%
Drug Stores 5.5% 5.9%
Mass Merchandisers 4.4% 2.8%
Limited Assortment Grocery Stores 2.7% 3.7%
Dollar Stores 2.2% 2.3%
Other 4.3% 4.9%
Top Grocery Retailers in North America
2012 Revenue ($ billions)
Wal-Mart 145.0
Kroger 96.3
Costco 87.3
Target 73.1
Safeway 44.5
Loblaw Cos. 31.8
Publix 27.5
Ahold USA Retail 27.3
7-Eleven 22.0
C&S Wholesale Grocers 21.4
Delhaize America 19.5
H-E-B Grocery Co. 19.4
Sobeys 17.7
Dollar General Corp. 16.1
Meijer, Inc. 14.6
Wakefern Food Corp. 13.6
Metro Inc. 12.0
Whole Foods Market 11.7
Source: Market Share Reporter, Case Writer Estimates

Exh 3

Exhibit 3
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
U.S. Store Count Forecast--Natural and Organic Share vs. Total Industry
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Conventional Supermarkets 36,092 36,092 36,092 36,092 36,092 36,092
Natural and Organic Subtotal 1,367 1,572 1,808 2,079 2,391 2,750
Assumed Growth Rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
N&O Share of Industry 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1%
Source: Deutsche Bank Research; Food Marketing Institute

Exh 4

Exhibit 4
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Selected Operating Data for Comparable Companies
Other Natural & Organic is composed of Sprouts and Fresh Market.
Conventional grocer is composed of Kroger, Safeway, and SuperValu.
Supercenters and wholesalers is composed of WalMart and Costco.
Sales Growth
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Whole Foods Market 17% 23% 22% 19% 18% 21% 1% 12% 12% 16% 10%
Other natural & organic 8% 13% 14% 41% 25%
Conventional grocer 6% 1% 5% 34% 10% 5% -5% 0% 4% -15% -5%
Supercenters and wholesalers 8% 7% 11% 12% 7% 7% 0% 5% 8% 7% 3%
EBITDA Margins
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Whole Foods Market 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9%
Other natural & organic 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%
Conventional grocer 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Supercenters and wholesalers 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7%
Source: Company SEC Filings.

Average Sales Growth

Whole Foods Market 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.17027402224514265 0.22751654469154947 0.21639063894746369 0.19273161041578191 0.17555394894153697 0.20664227970228954 9.7697837240340313E-3 0.12129234201817307 0.12236489086914504 0.15740745229395903 0.10412769552642365 Other natural & organic 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8.0378037239676514E-2 0.13026796808561225 0.13736421090664996 0.41126099432990038 0.24781447389255229 Conventional grocer 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.3778700863189E-2 7.9194567018363218E-3 5.3922296845367347E-2 0.34032633719625771 9.740940784223362E-2 4.5596343095529589E-2 -5.1045863014997139E-2 1.7783793547598847E-4 4.1412410127668088E-2 -0.14754260711949799 -5.41052534864657E-2 Supercenters and wholesalers 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8.0638230609474462E-2 7.3507569837481371E-2 0.10625767199782661 0.12323798928588532 7.3063274961256752E-2 7.3089171687393303E-2 1.8379404597749596E-4 5.3935853647568255E-2 8.0322038437526874E-2 7.1897730945509705E-2 2.8251259040356896E-2

Average

EBITDA Margins

Whole Foods Market 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8.6807027773993017E-2 8.8282125253884278E-2 7.7317518663498452E-2 8.4751227668699233E-2 7.3400737555738033E-2 6.1032986032533425E-2 6.8609321656154049E-2 7.923387987777647E-2 8.2582765149285406E-2 9.018476038796365E-2 9.4604010219091123E-2 Other natural & organic 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7.7162965887654256E-2 9.3985481436449081E-2 7.6067554015394986E-2 6.7035061917215408E-2 8.5124784092493938E-2 8.40262293474556E-2 Conventional grocer 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4.4377679210227783E-2 4.9033709990205461E-2 4.9314725026337713E-2 5.8643466996611715E-2 6.0209091761983531E-2 3.1473515818164904E-2 3.350964843733497E-2 3.3739138160138453E-2 3.157067651391289E-2 3.6147967915254202E-2 4.3560765703244214E-2 Supercenters and wholesalers 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7.0932122134447703E-2 7.2998035612846998E-2 7.4107890623392347E-2 7.4489213486842773E-2 7.375641353697561E-2 6.9344689055335793E-2 7.2277591326736515E-2 7.5673319111553325E-2 7.4504679807111659E-2 7.2923566720499947E-2 6.7315506588978072E-2

Exh 5

Exhibit 5
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Selected Financial Data for Comparable Companies
(in millions of USD, except beta; financial statement data as of fiscal year 2013)
Company Sales EBITDA Market Cap of Equity Total Debt Beta Bond Credit Rating
Natural & Organic
Whole Foods Market 12,917 1,222 14,481 0 0.70 N.A.
Sprouts Farmers Market 2,438 187 4,102 304 0.75 BB-
The Fresh Market 1,512 138 1,554 25 0.80 N.A.
Conventional Grocers
Kroger 98,375 4,428 23,679 11,311 0.70 BBB
Safeway 36,139 1,579 7,899 4,451 0.75 BBB
Supervalu 17,155 720 1,876 2,531 1.00 B-
Supercenters and Wholesalers
Wal-Mart 476,294 35,742 251,747 55,245 0.60 AA
Target 72,596 6,452 36,806 14,089 0.75 A
Costco 105,156 3,999 49,257 4,985 0.75 A+
Sources: Value Line, Mergent Online, YCharts, Yahoo! Finance, Standard and Poor's, SEC company filings, and casewriter estimates.

Exh 6

Exhibit 6
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Store Growth Statistics for Whole Foods and Other Industry Comparables
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Stores
Trader Joe's 400
Whole Foods Market 275 284 299 311 335 362
Sprouts 36 40 43 103 148 167
Fresh Market 86 92 100 113 129 151
Natural Grocers 72
Fairway 14
Other Natural and Organic Retailers 200
Kroger 2,481 2,469 2,460 2,435 2,424 2,640
Safeway 1,739 1,725 1,694 1,678 1,641 1,335
SuperValu 2,474 2,421 2,349 2,394 2,434 2,396
Wal-Mart (including Sam's Club, U.S. only) 4,258 4,360 4,413 4,479 4,625 4,835
Costco (U.S., Canada, & Mexico) 512 527 540 592 606 634
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Same-Store Sales Growth
Whole Foods Market 4.0% -4.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0%
Sprouts 9.0% 2.6% 2.3% 5.1% 9.7% 10.7%
Fresh Market -1.5% -1.1% 5.0% 5.4% 5.7% 3.2%
Kroger (excluding fuel) 5.3% 3.1% 2.5% 4.9% 3.5% 3.6%
Safeway (excluding fuel) 1.5% -4.9% -0.5% 4.9% 1.6% 0.2%
SuperValu (including fuel) 0.5% -1.2% -5.1% -6.0% -2.8% -2.4%
Wal-Mart (U.S. only) 3.5% -0.8% -0.6% 1.6% 2.4% -0.5%
Costco (including fuel) 8.0% -4.0% 7.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0%
Source: Company SEC filings; Deutsche Bank Research; Food Marketing Institute

Exh 7

Exhibit 7
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Deutsche Bank Model (millions of USD, except per share figures)
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
At Fiscal Year End 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Store Growth 4.0% 7.7% 8.1% 10.5% 12.6%
Sales Growth 12.2% 15.7% 10.4% 11.1% 14.0%
EBITDA Margin 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 9.4% 9.8%
Tax Rate 38.1% 38.4% 38.8% 39.0% 39.0%
Current Asset Turnover 7.0 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.1
Current Liabilities Turnover 10.5 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.5
Net PP&E / Store 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7
Annual Dep. & Amort. / Store 1.00 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94
Stores 311 335 362 400 450
Sales 10,108 11,699 12,917 14,351 16,360
EBITDA 859 1,055 1,222 1,352 1,600
Dep. & Amort. 311 311 339 376 423
EBIT 548 744 883 976 1,176
Taxes 209 286 343 381 459
Net Income 339 458 540 596 717
Shares Outstanding 350 364 372 372 372
Earnings per Share 0.97 1.26 1.45 1.60 1.93
Current Assets 1,453 2,103 1,980 2,050 2,304
Current Liabilities 880 977 1,088 1,238 1,406
Net Working Capital 573 1,126 892 812 898
Net PP&E 1,997 2,193 2,428 2,680 3,018
Return on Capital 13.2% 13.8% 16.3% 17.1% 18.3%
Source: Company Financial Reports, Deutsche Bank Analyst report and casewriter estimates

Exh 8

Exhibit 8
WHOLE FOODS MARKET
Demographic and Capital Markets Data
U.S. Population Growth Rates
2014-2015 0.82%
2015-2060 (Compound Annual Growth Rate) 0.70%
Yield on U.S. Treasuries
6 Months 0.05%
1 Year 0.10%
3 Years 0.90%
5 Years 1.65%
30 Years 3.40%
Average Yields on U.S. Corporate Bonds
5-Year Maturity 30-Year Maturity
AA 1.90% 4.29%
A 2.09% 4.39%
BBB 2.49% 4.80%
BB 4.00% 6.83%
B 4.90% n/a
Source: Bloomberg and US Census Bureau

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