statistic help

DEC215 Statistics Class work

Cover Sheet

Student Name: ……………………..………………………………………………

Student Identification Number ………………………………………………….

Course code: DEC215

Week 8 - 9: Business Decision project

Instructions:

· Complete the following report, using the results of your statistics and calculations to make business decisions.

· Use Excel to calculate the required statistical formulas.

· Submit both this paper, respective Report in the form of a Word document and the Excel file by Friday night 05/06/2020, 22h00 on E learning. Please ensure you meet this deadline as extensions will not be given.

Scenario

You have recently been employed in a large hotel chain operating in Europe. Your company own and manage a number of hotels over different classes (Economy, mid-scale, up-scale and upper upscale). You should choose a name for the hotel chain – either use an existing one that does not yet operate in Switzerland or make up your own.

The board has decided to expand into Switzerland and has tasked you with a number of assignments. Your main objective is to do some research to help them decide what type of hotel and where in Geneva to open.

In order for them to make an informed, well researched decision, you have obained data from hotels that will be in operating in the same area and possibly the same market as you. The company is wealthy and is doing well across the board but has never operated in Switzerland.

Instructions:

In all the questions you need to keep in mind your report will be read by management, so should be well organised, neat and understandable.

Collect the Excel file: Geneva Industry Stats from ELearning week 8.

Save and rename it to include your name and student number. Use this saved file to complete the tasks below.

1. Displaying the Data. Investigate the market stucture and room rates charged.

· In order to enter the market with a competitive price, you would need to do analysis on the rates charged in Geneva. Use the Sheet GVA market data. For the variable ‘Average Room Rates’, create a number of charts that will give management a clear, easy to understand overview of the rates across all classes.

· You should also analyse the market situation, and determine how the market is divided which will help decided at which class to enter.

· You may decide which chart types will make this data easiest to understand.

· Write an analysis and explain the charts [10]

2. Measures of location and spread.

Use the Sheet GVA market data . In your Excel file find the measures of location and spread for the the variable ‘Room Rates’ across all hotel classes. You will use them to help you make your business decision. In an Excel sheet summarise and show for each class the Mean, Median, Mode, Standard Deviation and Quartiles. You may also use any other statistical technique you find appropraite to show the meauses of location and spread. [10]

3. Sampling

Use the correct sampling approach and sample size (research this) to find out if the local population of Geneva, as well as international guests, would be likely to come and stay at your new hotel.

a) In September 2019, the population of Geneva was 218,979. What sample size will you use for Geneva, and why? [3]

b) Geneva is a very International city, there are busy commercial areas, less busy parks, an International airport, lakeside areas and many shopping centres. Which sampling method will you use, and why? [5]

c) How will you actually collect your data? For example, a street questionnaire? An on-line survey? Justify your answer.

4. Questionaire design (Research)

Design a questionaire that can be given to your research recipients, in which you ask questions about what they want from a hotel, where they would prefer to stay, the price range etc. Keep in mind that you have not yet entered the market in Switzerland and have no experience here. Your questionaire should be well designed, be in a form that can be printed out and contain at least 7 but not more than 10 questions. [15]

5. Seasonality

Use the sheet “Demand Analysis” for this question. Construct a Centered Moving average data sheet in which you determine the quaterly seasonality factors for the Geneva area based on Demand. Construct an Excel chart that will adequately display the actual demand vs centered moving average demand. Comment on your findings. [15]

6. Forecasting

Use the occupancy data from the sheet “Geneva data” and forecast from the last given date to June 2021(you may not use the tool Forecast sheet in the DATA tab). Create a chart based on your forecasted data. Show upper and lower confidence bounds at 90%. [10]

7. Correlation and Regression

Use the Sheet GVA market data . Use Correlation and Regression techniques to find the relationship between Average Room Rates and Number of Rooms and explain what that relationship is.

a) Find the Correlation Coefficient[1]

b) Use a chart to show the relationship between the two variables. [5]

c) Explain the relationship between the two variables [2]

8. Hotel data analystics

One board member questioned using Geneva as their first site into Switzerland and asked about the Zurich area. Analyse the KPI for 2018 to the last date given for the Geneva area (Sheet Geneva data) and the Zurich area (Sheet Zurich data). You may use any statistical tool you think relevant. [15]

9. Decicion tree

Your research team has come up with a number of options for enterning the market in Geneva: either a new build, purchasing an excisting facility or re-appropriating an existing appartment block that can be converted into a hotel. The following research has been done:

The New build would come at a cost of CHF2,3m. At a 60% chance of success the expeced earning would be CHF 800,000. Failure is estimated at earning CHF 150,000.

The second option of purchasing an existing facility comes at a cost of CHF1,8m and has a 50/50 chance of earning CHF2,5m or earning CHF1,6m.

The third option of re-appropriating an apartment block comes at a cost of CHF1.1m. Success is estimated at a 70% earning CHF1,2m, and failure could earn only CHF750,000.

Draw up a decision tree and analyse your findings. [10]

10. Final recommendation

Throughout this part of the project you may make use of any graph or other statitical technique that will help justify your decision. You should draw on your answers to previous questions.

You need to create a MS Word document Saved as yourNameReport.

Your answer should take the form of a report and should include graphs and any other statistical methods you think appropriate. It should include a header with your name and student number, page numbers at the bottom of each page and a table of contents.

Marks will be also be allocated for neatness, style and readability.

Your report should answer the following questions:

a) What scale of hotel would you suggest the company open?

b) How many rooms should the hotel have?

c) Would the hotel have a Restaurant, Spa?

d) Which of the options from the decision tree should be used.

e) How does the Zurich area compare to that of Geneva?

f) What does the forecast sheet indicate?

g) Made a final recommendation to the company by writing a summary to justify your recommendation.[50]

h) Include your questionnaire as an appendix.

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