BUS 640 Week 1 Responses

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

To save on gasoline expenses, Edith and Mathew agreed to carpool together for traveling to and from work. Edith preferred to travel on I-20 highway as it was usually the fastest, taking 25 minutes in the absence of traffic delays. Mathew pointed out that traffic jams on the highway can lead to long delays making the trip 45 minutes. He preferred to travel along Shea Boulevard, which was longer (35 minutes), but rarely had traffic jams. Edith agreed that in case of traffic jams, Shea Boulevard was a reasonable alternative. Neither of them knows the state of the highway ahead of time. After driving to work on the I-20 highway for 1 month (20 workdays), they found the highway to be jammed 3 times. Assuming that this month is a good representation of all months ahead, should Edith and Mathew continue to use the highway for traveling to work? How would you conclusion change for the winter months, if bad weather makes it likely for traffic jams on the highway to increase to 6 days per month? How would your conclusion change if Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the status of the highway traffic prior to their drive each morning, thus reducing the probability of them getting into a jam down to only 1day per month (where on this day, the app showed no traffic jam, but a jam developed in the meantime as they were driving along the highway). Guided Response: In 300 words or more, please, provide your response to the above discussion question. Please, show all your calculations and explain your answers. Further, comment on how the conclusions of this problem will change if there was no uncertainty and the highway always had traffic jams, whereas Shea Blvd was always traffic jam free? Is this scenario realistic and why? Respond substantively to at least two of your classmates’ postings.

Respond to Yasmeen Thompson post

I believe that Edith and Mathew should continue to use the highway for traveling to work. Due to the fact that the highway is the fastest route I believe they shouldn't stop using it. 

My conclusion will change for the winter months, if bad weather makes it likely for traffic jams on the highway to increase to 6 days per month because I will suggest that they take Shea Boulevard versus I-20 route. The winter will cause an increase in the traffic jam days and the increase will be six days of traffic jams which will equal more time for the I-20 route: 45min*6 days=270 min + 25min*14 days=350 min for the remaining days, which equals 750 minutes for this route for twenty days. This makes I-20 route for 20 days be longer than Shea Boulevard in the winter with no traffic jams, (700 minutes for twenty days). Based on these findings is why my conclusion will change. 

If Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the status of the highway traffic prior to their drive each morning, thus reducing the probability of them getting into a jam down to only 1day per month (where on this day, the app showed no traffic jam, but a jam developed in the meantime as they were driving along the highway) my conclusion would be as I originally state I would suggest they take I-20 highway. I-20 route is still the fastest route because the app will already show Edith and Matthew  the traffic jam and they will save 10 minutes by taking the Shea Boulevard route.  If there is a traffic jam on the Shea Boulevard route it would be best for them take the I-20 route. If Shea Boulevard route is 35 min without a traffic jam, with a traffic jam it could be about 55 min, making I-20 route with a traffic jam 45min faster.

Respond to Julian Jones post

It is important to note traffic jams and delays when calculating the commute to work. Based on the information Edith and Mathew found in their attempt to save on gasoline, there are many reasons why I believe they should continue to use the highway for their travel. The first reason I believe they should use the highway is the time they save by doing so. Edith and Mathew would be on the road seven minutes longer per day if they take Shea Boulevard over the highway. During that drive they are also putting more pollution in the air.

Edith and Mathew were smart and calculated the traffic jams for both routes and that data was also factored into the decision. They discovered that the highway jammed up three times within the twenty work days they were finding data. That’s only about fifteen percent of the time they can expect to hit a traffic jam. I decided that fifteen percent wasn’t enough to warrant taking Shea Boulevard and adding all that extra time to the commute.

During the winter months I would change my opinion and suggest that they use Shea Boulevard for their commute. The reason for this is because anticipating six traffic jams during the twenty days of data collection, alters the playing fields. Now we can expect 30% of their times being traffic jams which makes a huge difference. Also, the winter months are notorious for accidents on the road. If Edith and Mathew are not used to winter months or aren’t prepared, it can lead to accidents.

If Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the status of the highway traffic prior to their drive each morning, it would reduce the probability of them getting into a jam. This would be very beneficial for them as they can check the traffic and make an informed decision on which route they want to take. Also, they can much easier avoid the traffic all together without wasting time in between.