Research paper

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REPORT 5

COVID 19 Effects on Employment and Unemployment Level

Donnesha Brittmon

Christian Brothers University

Foundation of Business Analysis

Dr. Joseph Turek

Friday, November 20, 2020

Introduction

This research paper aims to estimate and study the effect of Covid 19 on employment and unemployment level in different states. World Health Organization has named this disease COVID 19, which is a short name for Coronavirus not true. This disease has caused so many issues and problems regarding physical health, economic, and social activities around the globe. There is a worldwide recession prevailing (word choice) due to this pandemic, which reflects a direct and positive in what sense is the impact positive? impact on employment level and unemployment of people around the world. This study will discuss in detail what are the consequences of Coronavirus in the job market and how people are struggling to sustain their jobs? This topic is very important to discuss because, nowadays, Coronavirus is a hot topic as it has stopped and blocked worldwide social and economic activities.

The COVID 19 arises in Europe ??? at the beginning of 2020. In the first month of this year, the first case showed up, and after that, several contagions and mortality rate ??? have been seen. It is known as an infectious infection ??? that mainly transmitted when an infected person sneezes or cough or even exhales. Coronavirus transfer droplets or aerosols, which are very heavy to carry into the air and atmosphere (Karpman, 2020). This disease continues to increase and spread from one country to country another. World Health Organization announced this outbreak as an emergency in the health sector at the international concern ??? in January 2020, and in March it was declared as pandemic around the globe. In late February, no economic activities have been implicated and implemented in many countries regarding the curing of this disease. Huh? After a struggle of numerous weeks, some countries started implementing these restrictive measures, and then some progressive results ?? came up with a decreasing number of cases gradually (Fana, 2020).

As of Until now November 14 2020, 53.2 million people have been victimized (word choice) as well as more than 1.3 million people had died due to Coronavirus. Usually, common symptoms of COVID 19 are fever, cough, sneezing, an outbreak of body, fatigue, breathing difficulties as well as the loss of smell and taste. A most dangerous symptom is difficulty in breathing and people have to suffer on oxygen pipes ?? and ventilators. The incubation time period is usually from 5 days to 14 days. It is also stated that Various vaccines are in development, but none is declared as a complete medicine for the prevention of this disease (Berdahl, 2020).

Due to this COVID-19, most of the markets and the organization were closed so the organizations started to work smartly and in different manner. The organizations what organizations? focused on the individual work rather than teamwork basis for this statement?. So, the individuals were more focused, which and it has both positive and negative impacts on the organization. The sales of the organization were declined due to the lockdown and their economy was decreased to some great extent. Which economy? How great a decline? The organization decided to reduce the number of employees. So, they individually monitored the performance and need of the employees for the organization. So, they terminated many of the employees. Furthermore, they devised new plan and strategies to implement for their business.

Most of the countries are suffering because of this pandemic situation. It has jolted the business organizations and their economy very badly and extremely. Almost all of the business organizations and the authorities are suffering due to this pandemic situation. You just said that. The global economy has also badly affected and disturbed due to this pandemic. The reason behind this is clear to everyone i.e. markets, public and private business organization were stopped and closed due to this pandemic. The Stock market is also badly affected due to this pandemic. Government has also got suffered but private organization were affected more badly as compared to the public organizations

However, it is of no doubt that this pandemic has caused worldwide economic plus social disruption. This disease is the main reason that all (not all) economic and social activities have been ceased for almost 3 to 6 months. This distortion has caused the most significant global recession after the great depression. So many essential events got postponed or even got cancelled. A worldwide shortage of supply exacerbated due to buying in a panic. Some countries also went through famines due to jam economic activities and shortage of food. However, it also causes to decrease the greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants, which were causing harm to the environment globally and the ozone layer was also getting depleting due to this pollutant and smoke.

As Coronavirus has caused disasters and so many distractions globally so, definitely it portrays positive and direct effect on the job market. ?? The downfall of economic activities has cause owners of industries (businesses?) and other sectors to lay off their employees. Millions of employees enter into the phase of unemployment due to this disease. Since companies and many industries are not getting profits and do not earn well so how they can pay to their employees. Hence, many employees lost their jobs in the past few months.

All over the job market of this world has sucked and blocked due to this pandemic. It also causes to decline in the number of hours of labor; therefore, wages of various employees cut down. Some get half of their wages, and some get nothing. It is also stated that the job market will remain volatile since the exact image comes on possible results. Global stock market decline on February 24 because of the increased number of Covid cases. Not a sentence. The downfall of the stock market is also the reason that people lose their potential ??? jobs.

Around 40 millions of Americans have lost their jobs and get their insurance claims of unemployment level. ??? Mass unemployment, as well as disaster economic activities, leads to increase the fear among people of eviction crises. According to the estimates of Yelp, Yelp is not a source to quote around 60% of business in the USA has been closed since the start of January 2020, and it is also predicted that they will remain close permanently. United Nations Economic Commission also stated that recession due to this pandemic had caused 14 to 22 million people in extreme poverty. Moreover, the World Bank has also stated that more than 100 million people around the world are in extreme poverty because of lockdowns. In a nutshell, it is a fact that this universal epidemic is the reason that millions of people lost their means of livelihood and facing extreme hunger plus poverty (Raj Chetty, 2020).

Literature review

In the past few months, the vast level of literature has been studied (are you saying that you’ve studied this vast literature?) to examine the impact of COVID 19 on employment and unemployment level. COVID 19 has been one of the most debating topics from the last few months, and people are curious about studying this relationship. This section of the study will give a detailed description on how researchers have worked on this topic, what are the variables used as well as what the type of methodology that has been used in detail.

(Manuela Angelucci, 2020) have studied this relationship between employment and unemployment with another factor called health ?. This study took a sample size of those people who can work from home and those who cannot work from home (remote and non-remote workers) of the USA what is the size?. Moreover, the researcher collected data from high frequency and extensive panel data set ??. Results of this study show that Coronavirus is affecting everyone so, it is suggested that workers should work from home so that the unemployment level cannot get increased. On the contrary, this study focuses on the employment level as well as the unemployment level by taking monthly data on civil labor force and unemployment level I have no idea what the author did or what conclusions were reached.

It (what?) is also studied by (Laura Montenovo, 2020) that employment has drastically affected by this pandemic, and it will take several years to get employment level increases in the job markets. It is also postulated that while understanding of socio-demographic factors of COVID 19 still some policy responses have to undertake for employment results in the USA huh?. Since the past two recessions, this downfall of the economy has been the most drastic one because the job market has become a disaster. This study concluded that from April to May, a more significant decline in the job market had been observed and mostly these are for young workers, college-going students. Some companies' focus on the rehiring of their previous employees in May but still there are millions of employees who have been facing unemployment level. Moreover, labor disparities should be removed from the job market, and the right policy has to be implemented What does this mean?.

Moving further, (Straubb, 2020) studied the flexible relationships among employees and employers and different careers in this troubled time of COVID 19. This study focuses on how employees cannot lose their jobs in this pandemic and how they can build valuable relationships with their employees? Moreover, this article postulated that under these crises, many countries had to adopt many preventive measures such as lockdowns, business shutdowns, social distancing and many more. Conclusion of this study stated that working activities and careers of people, as well as jobs of individuals, have been strictly affected by Coronavirus. To get over this situation, individuals should learn different skills so that they can make their worth in the job market. It is essential to understand that COVID 19 has negatively impacted the employment level around the globe, and job saturation (what is this?) is increasing tremendously. Therefore, individuals should enhance their other skills and capabilities so that they can compete globally. Skilled employees have more probability of having a flexible relationship with their employers, and there is always a less chance to be laid off.

(Kurmann, 2020) Worked on the U.S. employment level and working hours of employees during this pandemic. Some employees work on fewer wage rates and for less working hours. People working from home do not get exact wage rates which they deserve. This study focuses on U.S. employment while using the methodology of real-time estimates with the database on households. Daily data of working firms on employment level and working hours are used in this study, and results show about the decline in employment level because of a decline in business activities.

The study of (Kurmann, 2020) concluded that that there is a chance of increases in employment level but with 15% previous inactive companies and firms. They can return to business and start earning maybe when this covid 19 periods will over. In mid-February average hours of employees every week declined from 28 hours to around 25.5 working hours till mid of April. This data reflects a 10% decrease in working hours of labor. Therefore, it also causes to decrease in the wage rate and salaries of employees. Thus Coronavirus has imposed a negative impact on employment level, especially in the USA.

Furthermore, another study has worked on the Coronavirus and its impact on labour disparities and employment gap. The author used data of USA employment and the ratio of working men as well ratio of working women in the job market. This study emphasizes that Coronavirus has effected the overall job market. Still, majorly it has been analyzed that companies usually lay off their female staff because men are considered more useful in performing different tasks (what tasks?). This activity is considered as unethical and against the rules and regulation, but still, companies follow this pattern of lying of women ??? (Qian, 2020).

This study also examines the analysis of employment level with young parents and their children. The unemployment level has been increased drastically into the world, and around more than 40 million people got to lay off, but those are young and having children got affected directly. It is challenging for parents to meet the livelihood as well as to cover all the expenses of their kids and children, especially in this pandemic (Qian, 2020). Another study has been analyzed portraying the effect of covid 19 on unemployment rate depending on age, gender, education and race. There have been seven cases where employees got laid off due to this Coronavirus but also on the base of their demographics (age, colour, gender, religion). In the name of the corona, companies prioritize to keep employees of their region and prefer to terminate other employees (Phyllis Moen, 2020).

Another study has been observed in which the employment level of Chinese migrants is analyzed due to this pandemic. It is stated that around 30-40 million migrants lost their jobs till the end of March, which is far more than domestic urban employees. Individuals who have less education and skills are those who have a high rate of unemployment. This pandemic has caused the already existing inequalities around the job market. In the end, it has been conclude this pandemic has also caused to increase in the unemployment level and has affected the employment rate drastically. This crisis also leads to increase the problem of migrants because they got lay off firstly as compared to their residents and have to start from the scratch to meet their expenses and livelihood (Che, 2020).

To get over this circumstance, people ought to learn various aptitudes with the goal that they can make their value in the occupation market. It is basic to comprehend that COVID 19 has contrarily affected the work level far and wide, and work immersion is expanding colossally. In this manner, people should improve their different abilities and capacities with the goal that they can contend worldwide. Talented workers have greater likelihood of having an adaptable relationship with their bosses, and there is consistently a less opportunity to be laid off.

After detail discussion of the previously discussed studies and literature, it can be summarized that covid 19 has adversely affected the employment and unemployment level around the globe. Around 30 to 40 million people have been unemployed due to this pandemic. It has also studied in detail that some employees are getting half of their salaries and mostly people doing work from home are not getting enough of their salaries. Many large business and industries have been shut down, and due to lockdowns economic and social activities are facing disaster destructions. In a nutshell, it is postulated that all over the globe is facing a vast level of unemployment in job markets (Wei Cheng, 2020 ).

To get over this circumstance, people ought to learn various abilities with the goal that they can make their value in the employment market. It is basic to comprehend that COVID 19 has contrarily affected the business level far and wide, and work immersion is expanding enormously. Subsequently, people should improve their different aptitudes and capacities with the goal that they can contend all around the world. Talented workers have greater likelihood of having an adaptable relationship with their bosses, and there is consistently a less opportunity to be laid off.

Hypothesis and Research Methodology

This article is based upon the coronavirus disease and employment level plus unemployment level. Hypothesis postulated that Coronavirus had increased the unemployment level, and millions of people are suffering from unemployment due to this covid 19. Two dependent variables of unemployment level have been observed to study the impact of Coronavirus on them. How many regressions did you run?

Dependent variable = unemployment level and civil labor force ???

Independent variable = coronavirus

Dependent variables are supposed to have a positive relationship with Coronavirus false. It depicts that due to increasing the Coronavirus, it causes to increase the level of unemployment around different USA states. Signs of correlation are supposed to be positive in regression analysis only if there is a positive relationship between the variables.

The Model:

Equation 1 Equation 2

Where,

Number of unemployed persons in states of America

· Coronavirus prevailing into the economy what is this variable?

· Statistics of the employed and unemployed labor force in the USA.

Above model represents the framework of this study, where the unemployment level has been taken as dependent variable and Coronavirus as an independent variable having effects on the unemployment level. Moreover, in another equation to measure the employment level, the civil labor force has been used as a dependent variable. Similarly, covid 19 is an independent variable affecting civil labor force. Why do you need a second equation?

Data

Data has been extracted from the reliable source and contains information of almost every states of America. This study is based on the secondary sources and contains monthly data of unemployment and civil labor force. Total secondary data of 57 states ???????????? has been taken and the period includes June 2019 when there was no pandemic and June 2020 when the pandemic is prevailing into the economy. Moreover, data of both variables how many independent variables? have also been taking from April 2020 to May 2020. Data is based on monthly figures, and cross-sectional data is taken. This is not clear. Did you use data for June 2019 and 2020 or April through June 2020? I have no idea what the coronavirus variable is and how it is measured.

Analysis

After the regression analysis, it has been seen that this novel covid 19 has adversely affected the employment rate in 57??? states of the USA. Results show that there is a positive relationship between Coronavirus and unemployment level. R square of any regression analysis shows that how which percentage of change can bring independent variable into a dependent variable Huh?. Our results signify that value of R square is 0.96, which means that 96% change is occurring into the unemployment level due to change in Coronavirus. Value of coefficient is 3258 (no, 32589), and t state is 1.4, not significant which shows that in the overall model of the unemployment level is depicting a 1% increase due to the increase in Coronavirus. P-value is also significant at 0.15 not significant and shows that around 15% no increases are occurring in every independent variable due to increase in Coronavirus. Results of this regression analysis are related to the theory and reflect the same positive sign of correlation. A positive sign means that due to the increase in coronavirus unemployment level is also increasing.

Moving further, on the results of the second analysis it has been depicted that coefficient value is 8620 and value of t stats is 0.57 which means that around 57% change is occurring in the overall model. It stats that around the employment level in the USA before covid 19 and after covid 19 has been changed by 57%. 57% of the employment level has been decreased from June 2019 to June 2020. Value of R square is significant, and in this analysis, it is 0.999. It means that around 99% of changes are happening into the employment level due to a change in coronavirus patterns around the globe.

Conclusion

After an extensive review of literature and data analysis, it is concluded that the results of this study rely on the fact about the decline in the employment rate due to increase in coronavirus cases Huh?. It is also stated that many factors, for example, business shutdowns, lockdown, work from home, are responsible for increasing the unemployment level into the country. This novel diseases spread into the USA like fire, and it was very difficult for the states to overcome this pandemic with time. The USA faced a lot of disasters due to this disease. All social and economic activities got deactivated, and people had to remain inside their houses to adopt preventive measures.

Millions of people lost their means of earning, and it was found so strenuous to meet the expenses and necessities of daily life. Though the government provide some subsides and relaxations ? to their domestic residents but still in this era of hardship, it seems very difficult to earn bread and butter. Many people in the USA have to live in extreme poverty due to this pandemic. However, it is also stated that it will take several months to get back to their normal situations after a decline in Coronavirus. Results of this study also match to the studies reviewed in the literature review. All studies showed a positive impact ???, and this study also extracted positive results and the direct relationship between unemployment level and Coronavirus.

To get over this circumstance, people ought to learn various abilities with the goal that they can make their value in the employment market. It is basic to comprehend that COVID 19 has contrarily affected the business level far and wide, and work immersion is expanding enormously. Subsequently, people should improve their different aptitudes and capacities with the goal that they can contend all around the world. Talented workers have greater likelihood of having an adaptable relationship with their bosses, and there is consistently a less opportunity to be laid off.

Limitations

The covid 19 is increasing tremendously in U.S. markets. Even measures like staying at home are not sufficient, and people are continuously victim of this novel disease. However, this study focuses on the unemployment level and civil labor force, but still, many factors can be studied in the future aspect. Limitation of this study was the availability of data of all the states of America. Many states got missed while doing regression analysis because of non-availability of data. Similarly, many other factors can be part of this study like wages, participation ratio of those working from home and those who are working from the office, decline in wage rate and many other factors. However, mainly data availability is the foremost hurdle and a limitation in conducting this research and appropriately estimating results.

References

Berdahl, T. M. (2020). COVID-19 And Racial/Ethnic Disparities In Health Risk, Employment, And Household Composition. Health Affairs, 39(9).

Che, L. (2020). Unequal pain: a sketch of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on migrants’ employment in China. Eurasian Geography and Economics.

Fana, M. (2020). The employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 390-410.

Karpman, G. A. (2020). Employment, Income, and Unemployment Insurance during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Kurmann, A. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on U.S. Employment and Hours: Real-Time Estimates With Homebase Data. Join Homebase.

Laura Montenovo, X. J. (2020). Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020.

Manuela Angelucci, M. A. (2020). Remote Work and the Heterogeneous Impact of COVID-19 on Employment and Health. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Phyllis Moen, J. H. (2020). Disparate Disruptions: Intersectional COVID-19 Employment Effects by Age, Gender, Education, and Race/Ethnicity. Work, ageing and retirement.

Qian, Y. F. (2020 ). COVID-19 and the gender employment gap among parents of young children. UTPjournals.

Raj Chetty, J. N. (2020). How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data. National Bureau of economic research.

Straub, l. S. (2020). Flexible employment relationships and careers in times of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 119.

Wei Cheng, P. C. (2020 ). Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings.

Appendix

Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.961
R Square	0.924
Adjusted R Square	0.922
Standard Error	130133.329
Observations	58

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%
Intercept	32589.9513	22818.5205	1.4282	0.1588	-78300.9407	13121.0381	-78300.9407	13121.0381
43617	3.404850276	0.1309	26.0096	0.0000	3.1426	3.6671	3.1426	3.6671