essay

Dylan Borchers, “Against the Odds”

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Dylan Borchers Heading includes your

Professor Bullock full name and identifies the

English 102, Section 4

4 May 2012

teacher, course, and date.

Against the Odds: Center the title. •

Harry S. Truman and the Election of 1948

Double-spaced Just over a week before Election Day in 1948, a New York throughout.

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Times article noted “[t]he popular view that Gov. Thomas E. No page number needed Dewey’s election as President is a foregone conclusion” (Egan). for one-page source.

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This assessment of the race between incumbent Democrat Harry

S. Truman and Dewey, his Republican challenger, was echoed a

week later when Life magazine published a photograph whose

caption labeled Dewey “The Next President” (Photo of Truman

37). In a Newsweek survey of fifty prominent political writers, each

one predicted Truman’s defeat, and Time correspondents declared

that Dewey would carry 39 of the 48 states (Donaldson 210). Nearly

every major media outlet across the United States endorsed Author named in signal phrase, page number in parentheses.

Dewey and lambasted Truman. As historian Robert H. Ferrell •

observes, even Truman’s wife, Bess, thought he would be beaten

(270).

The results of an election are not so easily predicted, as the

famous photograph in fig. 1 shows. Not only did Truman win the

election, but he won by a significant margin, with 303 electoral

votes and 24,179,259 popular votes, compared to Dewey’s 189

•electoral votes and 21,991,291 popular votes (Donaldson 204-07). 1”

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This image can not be included here for permissions reasons. Please see page 828 of Back to the Lake, 3rd ed. to view this image.

Fig. 1. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition

of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which mistakenly announced “Dewey

Defeats Truman"; Byron Rollins, Dewey Beats Truman (4 Nov. 1948;

Associated Press; AP Images; Web; 23 Mar. 2009).

In fact, many historians and political analysts argue that Truman

would have won by an even greater margin had third-party

Progressive candidate Henry A. Wallace not split the Democratic

vote in New York State and Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond not won

four states in the South (McCullough 711). Although Truman’s

defeat was heavily predicted, those predictions themselves,

Dewey’s passiveness as a campaigner, and Truman’s zeal turned

the tide for a Truman victory.

In the months preceding the election, public opinion polls

predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. Pollster Elmo

Roper stopped polling in September, believing there was no

reason to continue, given a seemingly inevitable Dewey landslide.

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Although the margin narrowed as the election drew near, the

other pollsters predicted a Dewey win by at least 5 percent No signal phrase; author and page (Donaldson 209). Many historians believe that these predictions •

aided the president in the long run. First, surveys showing Dewey

in the lead may have prompted some of Dewey’s supporters to

feel overconfident about their candidate’s chances and therefore

to stay home from the polls on Election Day. Second, these same

surveys may have energized Democrats to mount late get-out­

the-vote efforts (“1948 Truman-Dewey Election”). Other analysts

believe that the overwhelming predictions of a Truman loss also

kept at home some Democrats who approved of Truman’s policies

but saw a Truman loss as inevitable. According to political analyst

Samuel Lubell, those Democrats may have saved Dewey from an

even greater defeat (Hamby, Man 465). Whatever the impact on the

voters, the polling numbers had a decided effect on Dewey.

Historians and political analysts alike cite Dewey’s overly

cautious campaign as one of the main reasons Truman was able

to achieve victory. Dewey firmly believed in public opinion polls.

With all indications pointing to an easy victory, Dewey and his

staff believed that all he had to do was bide his time and make

no foolish mistakes. Dewey himself said, “When you’re leading,

don’t talk” (Smith 30). Each of Dewey’s speeches was well crafted

and well rehearsed. As the leader in the race, he kept his remarks

faultlessly positive, with the result that he failed to deliver a solid

message or even mention Truman or any of Truman’s policies.

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Eventually, Dewey began to be perceived as aloof and stuffy. One

observer compared him to the plastic groom on top of a wedding

cake (Hamby, “Harry S. Truman”), and others noted his stiff, cold

demeanor (McCullough 671–74).

As his campaign continued, observers noted that Dewey

seemed uncomfortable in crowds, unable to connect with ordinary

people. And he made a number of blunders. One took place at a

train stop when the candidate, commenting on the number of

children in the crowd, said he was glad they had been let out of

school for his arrival. Unfortunately for Dewey, it was a Saturday

(“1948: The Great Truman Surprise”). Such gaffes gave voters the

feeling that Dewey was out of touch with the public.

Again and again through the autumn of 1948, Dewey’s

campaign speeches failed to address the issues, with the

candidate declaring that he did not want to “get down in the

gutter” (Smith 515). When told by fellow Republicans that he was

losing ground, Dewey insisted that his campaign not alter its

course. Even Time magazine, though it endorsed and praised him,

conceded that his speeches were dull (McCullough 696). According

to historian Zachary Karabell, they were “notable only for taking

place, not for any specific message” (244). Dewey’s numbers in

the polls slipped in the weeks before the election, but he still held

a comfortable lead over Truman. It would take Truman’s famous

whistle-stop campaign to make the difference.

Few candidates in US history have campaigned for the

presidency with more passion and faith than Harry Truman. In

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the autumn of 1948, he wrote to his sister, “It will be the greatest

campaign any President ever made. Win, lose, or draw, people will

know where I stand” (91). For thirty-three days, Truman traveled

the nation, giving hundreds of speeches from the back of the

Ferdinand Magellan railroad car. In the same letter, he described the

pace: “We made about 140 stops and I spoke over 147 times, shook

hands with at least 30,000 and am in good condition to start out

again tomorrow for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Jersey City, Newark,

Albany and Buffalo” (91). McCullough writes of Truman’s

campaign:

No President in history had ever gone so far in quest of

support from the people, or with less cause for the effort,

to judge by informed opinion. . . . As a test of his skills and

judgment as a professional politician, not to say his stamina

and disposition at age sixty-four, it would be like no other

experience in his long, often difficult career, as he himself

understood perfectly. More than any other event in his public

life, or in his presidency thus far, it would reveal the kind of

man he was. (655) •

He spoke in large cities and small towns, defending his

policies and attacking Republicans. As a former farmer and

relatively late bloomer, Truman was able to connect with the

public. He developed an energetic style, usually speaking from

notes rather than from a prepared speech, and often mingled

with the crowds that met his train. These crowds grew larger

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as the campaign progressed. In Chicago, over half a million

people lined the streets as he passed, and in St. Paul the crowd

numbered over 25,000. When Dewey entered St. Paul two days

later, he was greeted by only 7,000 supporters (“1948 Truman-

Dewey Election”). Reporters brushed off the large crowds as mere

curiosity seekers wanting to see a president (McCullough 682). Yet

Truman persisted, even if he often seemed to be the only one who

thought he could win. By going directly to the American people

and connecting with them, Truman built the momentum needed

to surpass Dewey and win the election.

The legacy and lessons of Truman’s whistle-stop campaign

continue to be studied by political analysts, and politicians today

often mimic his campaign methods by scheduling multiple visits

to key states, as Truman did. He visited California, Illinois, and

Ohio 48 times, compared with 6 visits to those states by Dewey.

Political scientist Thomas M. Holbrook concludes that his strategic

campaigning in those states and others gave Truman the electoral

votes he needed to win (61, 65).

The 1948 election also had an effect on pollsters, who, as

Elmo Roper admitted, “couldn’t have been more wrong.” Life

magazine’s editors concluded that pollsters as well as reporters

and commentators were too convinced of a Dewey victory to

analyze the polls seriously, especially the opinions of undecided

voters (Karabell 256). Pollsters assumed that undecided voters

would vote in the same proportion as decided voters — and that

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turned out to be a false assumption (Karabell 257). In fact, the

lopsidedness of the polls might have led voters who supported

Truman to call themselves undecided out of an unwillingness to

associate themselves with the losing side, further skewing the Work by 3 or more authors is polls’ results (McDonald et al. 152). Such errors led pollsters to • shortened using et al. change their methods significantly after the 1948 election.

After the election, many political analysts, journalists,

and historians concluded that the Truman upset was in fact a

victory for the American people, who, the New Republic noted,

“couldn’t be ticketed by the polls, knew its own mind and had

picked the rather unlikely but courageous figure of Truman to

carry its banner” (T.R.B. 3). How “unlikely” is unclear, however;

Truman biographer Alonzo Hamby notes that “polls of scholars

consistently rank Truman among the top eight presidents in

American history” (Man 641). But despite Truman’s high standing,

and despite the fact that the whistle-stop campaign is now part

of our political landscape, politicians have increasingly imitated

the style of the Dewey campaign, with its “packaged candidate

who ran so as not to lose, who steered clear of controversy, and

who made a good show of appearing presidential” (Karabell 266).

The election of 1948 shows that voters are not necessarily swayed

by polls, but it may have presaged the packaging of candidates by

public relations experts, to the detriment of public debate on the

issues in future presidential elections.

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Works Cited •

Donaldson, Gary A. Truman Defeats Dewey. UP of Kentucky, 1999. •

Egan, Leo. “Talk Is Now Turning to the Dewey Cabinet.” The

New York Times, 20 Oct. 1948, p. 8E, www.nytimes.com/

timesmachine/1948/10/26/issue.html. Accessed 18 Apr. 2012.

Ferrell, Robert H. Harry S. Truman: A Life. U of Missouri P, 1994.

Hamby, Alonzo L., editor. “Harry S. Truman: Campaigns and

Elections.” American President, Miller Center, U of Virginia,

11 Jan. 2012, millercenter.org/president/biography/truman­

campaigns-and-elections. Accessed 17 Mar. 2012.

- - -. Man of the People: A Life of Harry S. Truman. Oxford UP, 1995.

Holbrook, Thomas M. “Did the Whistle-Stop Campaign Matter?”

PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 35, no. 1, Mar. 2002, pp.

59-66.

Karabell, Zachary. The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the

1948 Election. Alfred A. Knopf, 2000.

McCullough, David. Truman. Simon and Schuster, 1992.

McDonald, Daniel G., et al. “The Spiral of Silence in the 1948

Presidential Election.” Communication Research, vol. 28, no. 2,

Apr. 2001, pp. 139-55.

“1948: The Great Truman Surprise.” The Press and the Presidency, •

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Alphabetized by authors’ last names.

Each entry begins at the left margin; subsequent lines are indented.

Multiple works by a single author listed alphabetically by title. For second and sub­ sequent works, replace author’s name with three hyphens.

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Dept. of Political Science and International Affairs, Kennesaw if the number were spelled

State U, 29 Oct. 2003, kennesaw.edu/pols.3380/pres/1984. out.

html. Accessed 10 Apr. 2012.

                                   

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“1948 Truman-Dewey Election.” American Political History, Eagleton

Institute of Politics, Rutgers, State U of New Jersey,

1995-2012, www.eagleton.rutgers.edu/research/

americanhistory/ap_trumandewey.php. Accessed 18 Apr.

2012.

Photo of Truman in San Francisco. “The Next President Travels

by Ferry Boat over the Broad Waters of San Francisco Bay.”

Life, 1 Nov. 1948, p. 37. Google Books, books.google.com/

books?id=ekoEAAAAMBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=

onepage&q&f=false. Accessed 20 Apr. 2012.

Rollins, Byron. “President Truman with Chicago Daily Tribune

Headline of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman.’ ” Associated Press,

4 Nov. 1948. Harry S. Truman Library & Museum, www.

trumanlibrary.org/photographs/view.php?id=25248. Accessed

20 Apr. 2012.

Roper, Elmo. “Roper Eats Crow; Seeks Reason for Vote Upset.”

Evening Independent, 6 Nov. 1948, p. 10. Google News, news.

google.com/newspapers?nid=PZE8UkGerEcC&dat=19481106&

printsec=frontpage&hl=en. Accessed 13 Apr. 2012.

Smith, Richard Norton. Thomas E. Dewey and His Times. Simon and

Schuster, 1982.

T.R.B. “Washington Wire.” The New Republic, 15 Nov. 1948, pp. 3-4.

EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db

=tsh&AN=14779640&site=ehost-live. Accessed 20 Apr. 2012.

Truman, Harry S. “Campaigning, Letter, October 5, 1948.” Harry S.

Truman, edited by Robert H. Ferrell, CQ P, 2003, p. 91.

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A range of dates is given for web projects developed over a period of time.

Every source used is in the list of works cited.

Dylan Borchers, “Against the Odds: Harry S. Truman and the Election of 1948.” Reprinted by permission of the author.