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Week 7: Dec 2-8

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Week 7: Applying Step Four-Evaluating the Alternatives and Making the Decision

Introduction: Weighting and Ranking the Alternatives Applying Sound Reasoning

Skill #9: Applying the Decision Matrix Tool to Evaluate the Alternatives and Make the Best Choice

In step four the decision alternatives have been created and now we have to evaluate the choices to see which one best fits the objectives of the decision maker(s). Right now if you are thinking of the car example you are being blinded by the fancy SUV that is over the budget. You really want that one and you can afford it if you go for the car pool idea (bias). However, you know that if you go through the rest of the process you may find that there is a better option. You need a little objectivity right now. It is time for the Decision Matrix.

1) Evaluate and Make Decision- by comparing the alternatives based on information and values (which objective is most important to you). Ask yourself which is best for me and those I care about, if this is a personal decision, or what is best for the business or organization? Before deciding, rate the alternatives on the elements or objectives. Use the Decision Matrix to help in this part of the evaluation process. 

Here is a simple step by step example to get you started. Please see "Which House Do We Buy" example located in Week 3. 

Step-by-Step Application:

Decision statement is "Which House Do We Purchase". 

Objectives: What do you want or desire? 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage, Basement, School Distance, Up to date Kitchen

Alternatives: How will you accomplish what you want in terms of what houses are you considering of purchasing?  123 Main Street, 456 Clark Road, etc…..

Decision Matrices

Matrix One (unweighted):

The resulting table (with the first house you visited scored): First Decision Matrix

House	3 BR	2 Baths	2 car garage	Basement	School Dx	Kitchen	Total Value
123 Main St	3	2	0	1	2	1	7
456 Clark Rd
3rd Alternative
4th Alternative
5th Alternative
6th Alternative

In your response to this week, in using PPO, you will need to explain each of the numbers in the first decision matrix by supporting how you logically scored each box. For example, the numbers showing in the first row for 123 Main Street – 3,2,0,1,2,1 – all have to be explained individually. The same will be required for 456 Clark Road, 3rd alternative, and so on.

Now you are going to add the WEIGHTS you have decided on for each of these six objectives:  Total of the weights should equal 100%.

Matrix Two (weighted):

House	3 BR	2 Baths	2 car garage	Basement	School Dx	Kitchen	Total Value
123 Main St	3 x 20%	2 x 20%	0 x 10%	1 x 15%	2 x 30%	1 x 5%	1.8
456 Clark Rd
3rd Alternative
4th Alternative
5th Alternative
6th Alternative

The first number is the value of that factor for a specific house based on the first matrix.  The second number is the weight you have assigned that factor (its importance in %). Multiply the two numbers. Put the total at the end of each row.

Fill in the value for each of six houses you visit, and the highest score is the one you should buy. Why? Because the numbers in the table dictate which alternative satisfies as many of your objectives, based on your importance of each objective. This same thought process and application of the MDQ will be used for Project 1, in deciding which alternative PPO should choose (the final decision).

2) Improve- are their gaps in the quality of the decision? Do you see areas that you are uncertain of or believe lack enough information? Repeat the process after filling in the gaps to see if the choice is 100% what you want from the decision. (Decision Quality Model, 2007)

Your total scores will suggest the best alternative and your decision.

 Assessing the effectiveness of the choice by seeing how it worked in implementation.

Skill #10: Assess the decision choice made from the matrix results.

After a decision has been made and implemented, it is important to assess the outcome(s) and process used to derive the decision. Assessing confirms if the alternative chosen led to the desired outcomes.  

Appraising the Decision Process

Assessing the process by which a decision was made is also effective. Often lessons can be learned that benefit the future. Here are a few areas that demonstrate the need for examination of the process:

· Examining areas like risk and uncertainty in the context of the decision results can help review the success of the decision maker in dealing with the process.  If estimates were off or if emotions played too big a part of the decision, then the decision maker can make adjustments in the future or find better tools to help minimize mistakes in future results.

· If the decision was made by a group, having a conversation with all participants is worthwhile because the members can reflect on how the process affected the outcome. For instance, did a few members insist on doing things their way when it turned out to be ineffective? In the future the group membership, or perhaps the leader should be changed.

· Whether enough information was gathered and whether its quality was high enough are two questions that should be considered.

· Were the decision tools used effective? Could other tools have been more effective in collecting or evaluating data?

· Finally, it is important to question whether all the relevant parties contributed information and knowledge needed for the decision, and whether everyone who should have been involved was given the chance to participate. 

Evaluating Outcomes After the Decision Has Been Implemented

The objective of evaluating outcomes is for the decision maker to develop an understanding of the ramifications of his or her choices. Many of the lessons developed in this stage come out of examining the implications of the decision. How and who did the decision affect and why? One can also consider whether a decision had the desired effect. For example, a decision to hold additional training seminars may have been intended to make it more convenient for people to learn a new technology. However, if overall attendance did not increase, then the decision may not have addressed the underlying cause of why people did not go to training events. Once the outcome of a decision is known, the results may imply a need to revise the decision and try again.

When decision outcomes are not clearly measurable or have ambiguous results—some parts good, some bad—is not uncommon for people to emphasize the favorable data and discount the negative. Maintaining self-esteem also may cause decision makers to attribute good outcomes to their actions and bad outcomes to factors outside their control. This type of bias can limit an honest assessment of what went right and what didn’t, and thus reduce what can be learned by carefully evaluating outcomes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

This introduction was adapted from the following source: B. (n.d.). Boundless Management. Retrieved from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-management/chapter/decision-making-process/

Read:

Measuring Decision Effectiveness

Three Steps to Building a Decision Matrix

View:

Evaluating the Alternatives Applying Sound Reasoning Episode 15

COMPLETE:

· Brainstorming Discussions in Week 7

· Submit the Final Attachment Post by Sunday 11:59 PM Eastern Time

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