WK 4

Learning Objectives

■ Review how and why human populations have changed over time.

■ Understand the most important demographic variables, such as birth and death rates and how they interact to determine population change.

■ Examine the direct and indirect approaches to population policy and how they affect decisions about fertility.

■ Evaluate the argument that overconsumption of resources in developed countries is as significant in environmental degradation as population growth in developing countries.

■ Review the historical link between rising population, food supplies, and food security.

■ Understand the various proposals to increase food production at a rate that can keep up with population growth.

Human Population Growth

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At two minutes before midnight on Sunday, October 30, 2011, a 5.5-pound baby girl named Danica May Camacho was born in a government- run hospital in Manila, Philippines. Danica May was just one of thousands of babies born in the Philippines that day, and just one of hundreds of thousands born around the world each day. Yet Danica May’s birth represented a milestone for reasons that her parents could never have imagined. The United Nations Population Division decided to symbolically designate Danica May as the world’s 7 billionth person and to declare October 31, 2011, as Seven Billion Day to call attention to the issue of world population growth (Coleman, 2011). Dan- ica May was greeted with a burst of camera flashes, applause from hospital staff and United Nations officials, and a chocolate cake with the words “7B Philippines” on it. Her stunned parents also received gifts and a scholarship grant for her future education (Cole- man, 2011).

Whether Danica May Camacho actually represented the world’s 7 billionth person can never really be known. The U.S. Census Bureau, for example, doesn’t expect the world population to reach 7 billion until March of 2012 (Cohen, 2011a). For the United Nations, however, determining the exact date and precise birth location of the world’s 7 billionth person is beside the point. The fact remains that 267 babies are born somewhere in the world every minute. That translates to 384 thousand births every day and over 140 million new faces every year. Because humans are dying at less than half that rate—108 deaths per minute, 156 thousand per day, and 57 million per year—global population continues to grow (Population Reference Bureau, 2011a). Whether global population will continue to grow at this rate, slow, or even decline has enormous implications for discussions of eco- nomic development, political relations, and the environment. Furthermore, fundamental differences in where population is growing or declining may have profound consequences for the global balance of political and economic power in the decades ahead.

8.1 Human Population Change

Demographers, or people who study population change, make use of statistical trends in births, deaths, fertility, and other variables to both understand historical changes in population and predict future trends. The study of how human popula- tions change over time is called demography and is important because changing human populations can affect resource use, economic conditions, and even the global balance of power. For example, this chapter will examine how rapid population growth in many of the relatively poor, developing countries of the world may be stressing the local environ- ment and harming prospects for economic development. In addition, the possibility that

AP Images/Bullit Marquez.

The world’s 7 billionth person, Danica May Camacho, was born in the Philippines on October 30, 2011.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

sharp declines in population in developed countries might also harm those economies by reducing the size of the active workforce is significant. This section will first examine how human populations have changed through time and then what a study of demography can teach us about likely changes in the future.

Human Population Through Time

At 7 billion, there is little doubt that humans are the world’s dominant species. Humans have converted large areas of the Earth’s surface to cities, farms, and other managed land- scapes, and have exploited almost every region of the world’s oceans. Moreover, the waste products of modern industrial society including radioactive and other long-lived wastes are detected in even the most remote locations on the planet. It’s remarkable then to real- ize that the survival of the human species was questionable until a few hundred years ago. Before then, a lack of adequate food and medicine, combined with disease, warfare, and other controls on population, kept human numbers relatively low. It’s estimated that there were as few as 15,000 people on the entire planet some 70,000 years ago. By 10,000 years ago, when humans first began shifting from a hunter-gatherer lifestyle to settled agriculture, there were perhaps as few as 300,000 people (Biello, 2011). This is smaller than the current population of a single large city in the United States, like Pittsburgh, Denver, Seattle, or Atlanta.

The development of agriculture, including the domestication of animals, greatly increased the quantity and security of food supplies for the human population. By 5000 BCE there were perhaps as many as 50 million people, and by the year 1 CE, this number might have grown to 300 million (Cunningham & Cunningham, 2012). However, warfare, disease, and famines continued to combine to hold human population in check and slow its growth. A series of bubonic plagues known as the Black Death ravaged much of Europe between 1350 and 1650, killing as much as one-third of the continent’s population (Cun- ningham and Cunningham, 2012). High birth rates continued to offset these high rates of mortality, and by the early days of the Industrial Revolution in 1804, the 1 billionth person was born. In other words, it took all of human history, hundreds of thousands of years, to reach a population of 1 billion. Since then the human population of the planet has increased dramatically. It took only 130 years after reaching the first billion for the world population to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion, and another 30 years after that for it to reach 3 billion in 1960. Since 1960 the trend has been even more dramatic, with another billion people added to the planet every 12 to 14 years as indicated by figure 8.1 (Population Reference Bureau, 2011b).

The World at 7 Billion

A very interesting way to see how you fit in to a global population of 7 billion is provided by the BBC. Go to this link, enter your date of birth, and see how many people were alive when you were born, how many people are born every hour, and what countries of the world are seeing the most rapid increases or decreases in population: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15391515

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Predicting when the 8th, 9th, or 10th billionth person will be added to the world’s popu- lation depends on a number of assumptions about trends in human fertility and health. The decisions that young people make today about when and if to marry, whether or not to use contraception and family planning, and how many children to have will ultimately determine future trends in population. The United Nations Population Division now proj- ects that world population will grow to 8 billion by 2025, 9 billion by 2043, and 10 billion by 2083 (Cohen 2011a). In addition, virtually all of this population growth will occur in developing countries of the world. Given the economic development and environmental challenges already facing these countries (described in Chapters 2 and 7, respectively), such demographic changes will have important consequences. Whether we hit the 10 bil- lion mark in 2083, far surpass it, or never actually reach it at all will depend in large part on decisions made by what is known as the “largest generation” (Riche, 2010). As of 2010, close to half of the world’s population—more than 3 billion people—was less than 25 years old. Almost 30%, nearly 2 billion people were under 15 years of age (Riche, 2010; Population Reference Bureau, 2011a). How the decisions made by these young people will affect global population is the focus of the next section.

Human Population Demographics

As complex as the study of human population may seem, it really boils down to under- standing just a handful of variables such as birth rates and death rates. Birth rates are

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Figure 8.1: Timeline of each billion mark in human population

Figure based on information from Population Reference Bureau (2011b). 2011 world population data sheet: The world adding another billion people every 12 years. Retrieved October 8,

2011, from http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011-world-population-data-sheet-presentation.pdf

Since around 1800, 6 billion people have been added to the planet. The time it takes for each new billion to be added has been steadily decreasing.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

measured as the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year, while death rates are the num- ber of deaths per 1,000 people. For example, globally in 2010 there was an average of 20 births per 1,000 people, which translates into a birth rate of 2% (20 divided by 1,000). Likewise, there was an average of 8 deaths per 1,000 people, for a death rate of 0.8% (Population Refer- ence Bureau, 2011a). The difference between the birth rate and the death rate is equivalent to what demogra- phers refer to as the rate of natural increase in a population. With a birth rate of 2% and a death rate of 0.8%, the global rate of natural increase in the population was 1.2%. Multiplying 7 billion people (current population) by 1.2% (rate of natural increase in human population) yields the result of approximately 84 million new people added to the world population annually. To put this in perspective, the entire New York City metropolitan area had a 2010 population of fewer than 20 million people.

The difference between birth rates and death rates has been the key determining factor in human population change through time. For most of human history, both birth rates and death rates have been relatively high, often in the range of 40–50 births and 40–50 deaths per 1,000 people each year. Such high birth rates corresponded with high fertility rates, the measure of the average number of children a woman will have in her childbearing years (currently considered to range from 15 to 49 years of age). In preindustrial societies, fertility rates were often as high as 6 or 7. This was due to a number of factors. Because most fami- lies were engaged in labor-intensive agriculture, large families were considered an asset. Also, because so many children died in infancy, women tended to have more children to ensure that at least some would survive. Earlier age of marriage, lack of contraception, and cultural factors also played a role in high fertility rates. Despite high individual fertility rates, human populations grew slowly or not at all for much of history, because death rates were generally equal to birth rates. An absence of medicine and a lack of adequate food, clean water, and sanitation have characterized most of human existence. All of these factors combined to keep death rates high and limit any increase in overall population.

Visualizing How a Population Grows

An interesting analogy for how birth rates and death rates combine to influence popula- tion is provided in this link. Births are compared to water dripping into a cup while deaths are likened to water dripping out of the cup. As long as the rate of water dripping into the cup is the same as the water dripping out, the water level in the cup—representing overall population—will stay the same (http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/ visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion).

Ata Mohammad Adnan/Getty Images

Fertility rates are dependent on age of marriage, availability of contraceptives, and cultural factors.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

Not until the time of the Industrial Revolution did this rough balance between birth and death rates begin to diverge. Throughout the 19th century, advances in technology and science improved the availability of food, clean water, sanitation, and medicine. As a result, life expectancies increased and infant mortality and overall death rates declined. However, birth rates generally remained high during this period for some of the same reasons described earlier, such as the need for large families and lack of contraception. The overall result was that death rates were declining rapidly at a time when birth rates remained high, and the difference between them is what began the surge in human popu- lation from the 19th into the 20th century. At first, most of this increase in population was concentrated in the more industrialized, developed countries of the world where advances in food supply, medicine, and sanitation were most widespread. By the second half of the 20th century, population increase began shifting to the developing countries as these advances became available there as well.

The Demographic Transition

Demographers use a model called the demographic transition (see figure 8.2) to explain and understand the relationship between changing birth rates, death rates, and total population. Phase 1 of the demographic transition model shows how human popula- tions in preindustrial societies were generally characterized by both high birth and death rates. These tended to cancel out one another and resulted in a fairly stable population. When death rates begin to decline and birth rates remain high, in Phase 2, there is a natu- ral increase in the population. Over time, as populations become more urbanized and as expectations of high infant mortality decline, birth rates also begin to drop. This is Phase 3 of the demographic transition, a period when declining birth rates still exceed death rates, resulting in a continued natural increase in the population. Not until Phase 4 of the demographic transition do birth rates and death rates begin to converge again, and overall population begins to show signs of stabilizing.

It’s instructive to review again some of the main factors that trigger changes in birth rates and death rates and that move countries through various stages of the demographic tran- sition. As already mentioned, a population’s death rate will generally begin to drop when three things happen: food supply increases and becomes more stable; sanitation practices such as sewage treatment improve and reduce the spread of disease; and advances in medicine, such as the development and use of antibiotics, increases. All of these factors were prevalent in the developed countries of the world during the latter part of the 19th century and into the 20th century, and as a result death rates declined accordingly. For example, death rates in the United States were roughly 29.3 for every 1,000 people in 1850, and the average life expectancy at birth at that time was only about 40 (United States Census Bureau, 2011a). By 1900, death rates had dropped to 17.2, and life expectancy at birth had increased to about 50 (National Center for Health Statistics, 1964). After spiking to almost 20 during a global influenza outbreak in 1918, death rates in the United States continued to drop to 8.4 by 1950, roughly where they remain to this day.

While one might expect birth rates to drop at roughly the same rate and at the same time as death rates, cultural factors, a desire for large families in rural households, and expectations of high infant mortality all combine to keep birth rates relatively high. Over time, however, cultural attitudes toward family size can change. Likewise, as a popula- tion urbanizes and fewer people are engaged in labor-intensive agriculture, the need for a

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

large family decreases. Better sanitation and medical care reduce infant and child mortal- ity rates, and this helps to lower overall fertility rates. In the United States and in the other developed countries, these changes were all underway in the first half of the 20th century, and birth rates dropped accordingly. However, only in recent decades have these same kinds of changes been underway in developing countries, so birth rates there have taken longer to decline.

The developed countries of the world were well into Phase 2 or 3 of the demographic transition by the start of the 20th century. Today these countries are in Phase 4 with very low fertility rates, low birth rates, and low death rates. In contrast, many of the develop- ing countries were still in Phase 1 or 2 of the demographic transition as late as 1950. These countries had not seen the advances in medicine, food supply, clean water, and sanitation that the developed countries had achieved. In addition, many of the developing countries were still largely rural and dependent on agriculture, a situation that tends to promote high fertility and large family size. As a result, developing countries were characterized by both high birth and death rates. From roughly 1950 onward, however, developing

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Figure 8.2: The demographic transition model

The Demographic Transition model illustrates how changes in birth and death rates can impact human populations. High birth rates, high death rates, and relatively stable populations have characterized most of human history. Once death rates begin to decline in Phase 2, the overall population begins to grow because birth rates remain high. As birth rates begin to decline and eventually reach the level of death rates, populations begin to stabilize once again.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

countries began to enter Phases 2 and 3 of the demographic transition, and their popula- tions increased rapidly as a result (see figure 8.3). Today, some developing countries, espe- cially in Asia, are approaching Phase 4 of the demographic transition. Meanwhile others, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, could still be categorized as being in Phase 2.

Table 8.1 provides a comparison of four different countries in different stages of the demo- graphic transition. Due largely to advances in medicine, Uganda’s death rates have come down dramatically in recent decades, but its birth rate is still high at 46 per 1,000. This is because fertility rates in Uganda (the number of children born to an average woman during her childbearing years) are still high at 6.4. In contrast, birth rates in Guatemala and Malaysia have begun to fall as fertility rates in these countries have come down to 3.6 and 2.6 children per woman, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum are developed countries like Germany. As of 2010, fertility rates in Germany were 1.4, and the birth rate was below the death rate (Population Reference Bureau, 2011a).

From Population Reference Bureau, 2011 World Population Data Sheet, p. 4. Copyright © 2011 Population Reference Bureau. Reprinted by permission.

By 1950, most developed countries of the world were entering Phase 4 of the demographic transition, and, as a result, their rate of population growth was slowing. In contrast, much of the developing world was just entering Phase 2 of the demographic transition and began to experience rapid population growth. Virtually all of the population growth projected to 2050 will occur in developing countries.

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Figure 8.3: Population change and projections for developed and developing countries, 1950–2050

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

Table 8.1: Demographic profile of selected countries 2010

Country Birth Rate (births per 1,000 per year)

Death Rate (deaths per 1,000 per year)

Fertility Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic Transition Phase

Uganda 46 12 6.4 3.4% 1/2

Guatemala 30 6 3.6 2.4% 2/3

Malaysia 21 5 2.6 1.6% 3

Germany 8 10 1.4 -0.2% 4

Source: United States Census Bureau. (2011b). International programs. Retrieved October 26, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/population/international/index.html

Another feature of countries in the early stages of the demographic transition is that they tend to have a skewed or uneven age distribution. Figures 8.4 and 8.5 show the 2010 popu- lation distributions for Uganda and Germany, respectively. Each horizontal bar on these graphs represents millions of people, broken down by gender and by age category—0 to 4 years old, 5 to 9 years old, and so on. The graph for Uganda clearly shows that the popula- tion is made up overwhelmingly of young people. In fact, nearly half of Uganda’s popula- tion is below the age of 15. The large number of young people gives Uganda’s population distribution graph a pyramid shape, and this feature is common for countries in the ear- lier stages of the demographic transition. Such a skewed age distribution holds impor- tant demographic consequences. Because such a large percentage of Uganda’s population is just now or soon will be entering their reproductive years, this country is essentially guaranteed to experience continued increases in population. Even if fertility rates were to drop dramatically in Uganda in the next few years, the large number of young people will ensure continued growth in the population, a phenomenon that demographers refer to as demographic momentum.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

In contrast, Figure 8.5 illustrates that Germany’s population is on track to decline in the decades ahead. The greatest share of the population is exiting their reproductive years, and they are being replaced by increasingly smaller generations of young people. This is because Germany’s fertility rate is below 2, a number known as the replacement rate since it usually takes around two children to “replace” their parents and maintain popula- tion. Any time a country’s fertility rate stays below the replacement rate for an extended period, they eventually experience a decline in population. Developing countries in the early stages of the demographic transition will generally have a population distribution like Uganda, whereas many developed countries will have a population distribution simi- lar to Germany’s. This is why demographers predict that virtually all of the world’s popu- lation growth in the decades ahead will be in developing countries. How much popula- tion growth will occur, and how fast we reach 8, 9, or 10 billion will depend on just how fast developing countries move through the demographic transition.

Based on information from United States Census Bureau. 2011. International programs. Retrieved October 26, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/population/international/index.html

Developing countries like Uganda often have a population distribution graph shaped like a pyramid. This reflects the high birth rates and large numbers of young people in their population.

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Figure 8.4: Population distribution for the country of Uganda

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

Immigration and Emigration

Besides birth rates and death rates, a country’s population is also affected by immigration and emigration. Immigration refers to the arrival of new people in a country while emi- gration refers to their departure. Each year millions of people move from one country to another to escape warfare and political oppression, to seek employment opportunities, or for other reasons. Some of these migrants do so legally, but perhaps even greater numbers do so illegally. For example, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that between 2000 and 2004 as many as 525,000 Mexican immigrants entered the United States illegally each year (Cave, 2011). An equally large number of people engage in internal migration within their own country. Each year millions of rural residents in developing countries move to urban centers to seek employment and economic opportunity. This has helped fuel the growth

Based on information from United States Census Bureau. 2011. International programs. Retrieved October 26, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/population/international/index.html

Developed countries like Germany tend to have a population distribution graph with greater numbers of adults and fewer children. This reflects a situation where the average couple in that society is having fewer than two children. If that trend continues, the overall population of the country will begin to decline.

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Figure 8.5: Population distribution for the country of Germany

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

of what are known as megacities, urban areas with over 10 million inhabitants. The number of mega- cities around the world is growing rapidly, especially in Asia where 45 million people a year move from the countryside to an urban area (Pill- ing, 2011). Because of this move- ment, it was estimated that by 2008, and for the first time in history, more than half the world’s popula- tion was living in urban areas. By 2050 it’s estimated that as much as three-fourths of the global popula- tion could be urban (Pilling, 2011). Such a massive shift in where people live and how they make a living will have significant economic, political, and environmental consequences.

In terms of international migration, emigration from developing countries and immigra- tion into developed countries characterize nearly all of this population movement. This trend is controversial and has prompted anti-immigrant backlash in many developed countries. At the same time, it has an important impact on economic and demographic trends in both sending and receiving countries. Emigrants from sending countries who migrate for employment purposes are sending hundreds of billions of dollars back home every year in remittances, an amount that’s far greater than total international develop- ment assistance (Rigg, 2007). Immigrants are also altering population trends in receiving countries. In the United States, as much as one-third of current annual population growth can be attributed to legal and illegal immigration. It’s estimated that between now and 2050 as many as 98 million immigrants will move from developing to developed coun- tries. This number will more than offset the projected natural decline in population in these countries of 73 million people (Cohen, 2005). Overall then, international immigra- tion will have the effect of maintaining or even increasing populations in a number of developed countries that would otherwise likely be experiencing a stable or declining population. This is especially true for countries like the United States, Canada, and Ger- many that have historically been more receptive to immigration.

Rich Pedroncelli/AP Images

Anti-immigration backlash in countries such as the United States is on the rise.

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

Reaching 7 Billion

The four links provided here represent popular media coverage of the global population reaching 7 billion. National Geographic, CNN, Time Magazine, and Scientific American all review some of the same demographic factors behind this event and some of the possible consequences of continued population growth. However, there are also some differences in their coverage of these issues. Review these sources to enhance your understanding of the population issue and its importance to issues of economic development, politics, and the environment. 1. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/7-billion 2. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/the-buzz-behind-7-billion-people-a-mile-

stone-and-a-warning/ 3. http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/0,28757,2097720,00.html 4. http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.cfm?id=7-billion-human-population

Country Case Study: Indonesia—Understanding the Links Between Fertility Rates, Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Population Change

(continued)

The island nation of Indonesia, in Southeast Asia, is the world’s fourth most populous nation. In recent decades, the fertility rate in Indonesia has dropped from over 5 children per woman to roughly 2.

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The country of Indonesia provides a fascinating perspective on changing birth and death rates. Indonesia, an island nation located in Southeast Asia, is the world’s fourth most popu- lous nation with a 2010 population of 240 million people (U.S. Census Bureau, 2011b). It is also the world’s most populous Muslim nation. Formerly a Dutch colony, Indonesia achieved independence in 1949. At that time it was a country that fit the description of a population in Phase 1 of the demographic transition—high birth and death rates (Table 8.2). Average life expectancy in Indonesia at the time was under 40 years, and fertility rates were high at 5.5 children per woman. Notice what happened in Indonesia between 1950 and 1970 as they moved from Phase 1 to Phase 2 of the demographic transition. Birth rates remained high, dropping from 42.7 births per 1,000 in 1950 to 38.4 in 1970. Birth rates, which mea- sure births per 1,000 people in a given population, and fertility rates, which measure the average number of births for an individual woman, tend to move together, and this can be seen in the Indonesian data. Fertility rates only dropped from 5.5 in 1950 to 5.3 in 1970. In contrast, between 1950 and 1970 death rates in Indonesia dropped by almost half, from 24.7 per 1,000 to 13.4. Life expectancy increased during this period from 38.8 to 53.4. Con- tinued high birth and fertility rates combined with declining death rates to cause a surge in Indonesia’s population during this time.

Table 8.2: Actual and projected demographic indicators for Indonesia, 1950–2060

Year

Birth Rate (births per 1,000 per year)

Death Rate (deaths per 1,000 per year)

Fertility Rate

Population (millions)

Rate of Natural Increase

Life Expectancy

1950 42.7 24.7 5.5 74.8 1.8% 38.8 1960 43.7 18.6 5.6 91.9 2.5% 46.9 1970 38.4 13.4 5.3 118.4 2.5% 53.4 1980 31.8 10.0 4.1 150.8 2.2% 58.8 1990 24.5 8.1 2.9 184.3 1.6% 63.1 2000 21.0 7.4 2.4 213.4 1.3% 66.4 2010 17.4 6.8 2.1 239.9 1.0% 70.0 2020 (projected)

14.4 6.8 1.8 262.6 0.7% 73.2

2030 (projected)

12.6 7.7 1.7 279.7 0.4% 75.2

2040 (projected)

11.3 9.2 1.7 290.2 0.2% 76.8

2050 (projected)

10.6 10.9 1.7 293.5 -0.3% 78.2

2060 (projected)

10.2 12.3 1.8 290.2 -0.2% 79.5

Source: United Nations Population Division, 2011

(continued)

Country Case Study: Indonesia—Understanding the Links Between Fertility Rates, Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Population Change (continued)

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

By the late-1960s, Indonesia came under the rule of its second president, Suharto (1921– 2008, president from 1968 to 1998). Suharto promoted more aggressive family planning and population control measures, and this helped to move Indonesia from Phase 2 to Phase 3 of the demographic transition. Between 1970 and 2000, birth rates fell from 38.4 to 21 just as fertility rates dropped from 5.3 to 2.4. However, because death rates continued to decline, Indonesia’s population grew at a brisk pace during this period, increasing from 118 million in 1970 to 213 million in 2000. From 2000 forward it’s possible to see how even with declin- ing birth rates and fertility rates, demographic momentum can result in continued popula- tion growth. Figure 8.7 illustrates Indonesia’s population distribution in 2000. Notice that the largest segment of the population is still very young, a consequence of high fertility rates in previous decades. Between 2000 and 2010 Indonesia’s fertility rate continued to drop from 2.4 to 2.1, and it is projected to drop to 1.8 by 2020. In other words, Indonesia’s fertility rate will be below replacement rate, yet the country’s population will continue to increase. This is because a much larger number of young people will replace the much smaller segment of

(continued)

Figure 8.6: Population distribution for the country of Indonesia

Based on information from United States Census Bureau, 2011. International programs. Retrieved October 26, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/population/international/index.html

Indonesia’s population distribution resembles a pyramid shape. However, notice that the number of young people between the ages of 0–19 is only slightly larger than the numbers of adults in the 20–39 age categories. This suggests that fertility rates in Indonesia are approaching the replacement rate of two and that in the decades ahead, Indonesia’s population will begin to stabilize.

10 0+ 95–99 90–94 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14

5–9 0–4

Indonesia – 2010

15 12 9 6 3 0 43.29630

Population (in millions)

Male Female

Country Case Study: Indonesia—Understanding the Links Between Fertility Rates, Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Population Change (continued)

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

Indonesia’s population that is older and who will die in the next few decades. This creates a built-in momentum for population growth that takes a couple of generations to complete. By 2050 Indonesia’s birth rates are finally projected to drop below death rates and its population is projected to stabilize, completing Phase 4 of the demographic transition.

Critical Thinking Questions

1. What factors contributed to such a rapid drop in death rates and rapid increase in life expectancy in Indonesia from 1950 to 1970?

2. Why does the Indonesian population continue to increase even though the replace- ment rate has dropped to 2.1?

Birth Dearth and the Second Demographic Transition

Rapid increases in human population, such as the 1 billion people added to the planet every 12 years, have naturally led to a focus on overpopulation as an issue of concern. How- ever, in a growing number of countries that have already completed the demographic transition there is now a concern over the possibility of a declining population. This pos- sibility was given the name “birth dearth” by commentator and writer Ben J. Wattenburg (1933–) in his 1987 book of the same name. Some experts have also referred to it as a second demographic transition. Currently, about 24 countries around the world are actu- ally experiencing a decline in population, most of which are former Soviet Republics in Eastern Europe. There, a somewhat unique combination of low birth rates, high death rates due to substandard health practices, and high emigration rates due to poor economic conditions has led to steady drops in population (Jackson, 2011).

Beyond the specific circumstances that have led to a declining population in these coun- tries, there are dozens of other countries around the world poised to lose population between now and 2050. Unlike the Eastern European cases, these countries will see a decline in population primarily because of sharp drops in fertility and birth rates. Table 8.3 provides some information on just five of these countries—China, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia. All of these countries are projected to have a declining population by 2050, with Russia’s population already in decline. The primary factor behind these declines is a fertility rate that stays consistently below the replacement rate. Overall, it’s estimated that there are 51 countries around the world that will lose population between now and 2050 (Cohen, 2005).

While it might seem at first that a smaller population is a good thing, there is considerable debate over the potential impacts of this trend. To begin with, it’s not just that the popula- tion of these countries is projected to decline, but also that it will become increasingly elderly. Low fertility rates and long life expectancies combine to cause a “graying of the population.” As a greater number of the population is made up of elderly people, a coun- try’s population distribution graph (such as those shown in Figure 8.7) begins to resemble an inverted pyramid. This situation presents a number of economic and other challenges. As people age and leave the workforce, they generally stop paying into social security and

Country Case Study: Indonesia—Understanding the Links Between Fertility Rates, Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Population Change (continued)

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Section 8.1 Human Population Change CHAPTER 8

pension funds and instead begin drawing money from those systems. Since social security and pension systems generally operate on a pay-as-you-go basis this sets up a situation where more is drawn from the system than is paid into it. An aging population also places increasing strain on a country’s medical and health care system, consuming a larger por- tion of government spending for this purpose. An aging and eventually declining popula- tion might even begin to alter the global balance of power, as some countries will have fewer young people available to serve in the military.

These prospects have government leaders in some countries concerned, which in turn have prompted efforts to encourage young couples to have more children. In Russia, for example, former President Vladimir Putin (1952–, president from 1999 to 2008) proposed paying women to have more children. The governor of the Russian region of Ulyamovsk declared September 12 as “family contact day” and encouraged couples to take the day off and have sex. The reason for this date is that it is 9 months from June 12, Russia’s national day. Couples having a baby on June 12 are eligible to win a grand prize such as a sports utility vehicle (BBC News, 2007). In other countries, incentives to encourage higher fertil- ity are subtler but no less real. Countries like Germany and Japan are increasingly offering tax breaks and generous allowances for childcare in an effort to reverse declining fertility rates (Smith, 2011). The prospects of birth dearth and a second demographic transition highlight just how different the population picture is in different regions of the world.

Altering Population Trends

The following website allows you to see how changes in birth rates and death rates can alter population trends over time. Start by choosing a country in the upper-right portion of the window. Then modify the birth rates and/or death rates under “simulator parameters.” Next click “run” or repeatedly click “step” under “simulator controls” to see how the changes you made to birth and death rate assumptions can alter population trends going forward. http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/interactives/demographics/demog.html

Table 8.3: Historical and projected fertility rates and populations for selected countries, 1990–2050

Fertility Rate Population (millions)

Country 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050

China 2.2 1.6 1.7 1148.4 1384.5 1303.7

Germany 1.2 1.5 1.7 79.4 80.2 71.5

Italy 1.2 1.5 1.7 56.7 62.4 61.4

Japan 1.5 1.4 1.6 123.5 125.5 107.2

Russia 1.9 1.5 1.7 148.0 132.2 109.2

Source: United States Census Bureau. (2011b). International programs. Retrieved October 26, 2011 from http://www. census.gov/population/international/index.html

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

It is no longer accurate to think of overpopulation as the only popula- tion challenge we face.

8.2 Population Policy

As recently as the 1950s, an average woman anywhere on the planet gave birth to almost six children during her child- bearing years. That average has now declined to 2.5, with average fertil- ity rates ranging from 1.65 in devel- oped countries to 2.67 in developing countries (Rauhala, 2011; Popula- tion Reference Bureau, 2011a). The United Nations predicts that aver- age fertility rates will continue to decline toward a replacement rate of 2 in the decades ahead and that, as a result, world population could stabilize later this century at around 10 billion. However, slight changes in assumptions made about fertility rates can have a pro- found impact on demographic trends. An increase in average fertility of just 0.5 children per woman could lead to a global population of over 15 billion by 2100. Likewise, a rapid decrease in fertility of 0.5 would result in a global population of 6.2 billion by 2100, almost 1 billion less than today (Cohen, 2011b). It’s clear then that any effort to influence fertility rates, whether direct or indirect, can have a significant impact on future population trends. Efforts to control and influence population change usually invites controversy since they affect highly individual and personal behavior. Population policy is also often subject to scrutiny and criticism on religious and moral grounds. This section reviews the major fac- tors that appear to influence fertility rates and the policy efforts to change them. It also examines the debate over the relative impacts of population and consumption patterns on resource use and environmental degradation.

Factors that Contribute to Lowering Fertility Rates

Broadly speaking, factors that influence decisions about fertility are either direct or indi- rect. Direct factors are those that have an immediate and tangible impact on a woman’s deci- sion or ability to have children. These mainly include the availability and affordability of

Challenges of Population Control

Authors and reporters Julia Whitty and Phillip Longman discuss some challenges of popula- tion control. They address such issues as use of natural resources, fluctuations in population growth, aging populations, and impacts of socioeconomic factors. http://video.pbs.org/video/2056734941#

Ken Scicluna/Getty Images

Some countries are concerned with declining populations rather than overpopulation. In Russia, for example, the government offers incentives to encourage couples to have more children.

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

contraception and family planning services. In some countries, such as China, contraceptive availability has also been linked with a system of government incentives (and dis- incentives) to encourage couples to have fewer children (see Country Case Study: Comparing Population Policies in China and Thailand). The direct availability of family planning services combined with clear incen- tives to have fewer children has led to dramatic reductions in fertility rates in China, from roughly 5 chil- dren per woman in the 1970s when these efforts began to only 1.6 today (United Nations Population Divi- sion, 2011).

In contrast, indirect factors are those that change the context within which women and couples make decisions about fertility and family size. For example, it’s widely accepted that increased access to education results in lower fertility rates. This is because young women who are better educated tend to marry later and have greater employment oppor- tunities, both of which work to reduce fertility. On average, globally, women with no for- mal education have an average of 4.5 children. Those who have some schooling have an average of 3 children, and those who have some secondary schooling have an average of only 1.9 children. For women with advanced schooling, the average fertility rate drops to 1.7 (Engelman, 2011a). In this case, investment in providing increased educational oppor- tunities can be thought of as an indirect form of population control. Debates over the effectiveness, fairness, and social justice aspects of direct versus indirect forms of fertility regulation have been raging for decades. However, it is almost always a combination of these approaches that has led to fertility reduction and a speeding up of the demographic transition in most countries around the world.

As discussed earlier, by 1950 most developing countries were still in Phase 1 or 2 of the demographic transition. Rapid improvements in medicine, sanitation, food and water supply in the decades that followed dramatically lowered death rates in these countries and triggered a period of rapid increase in population. The overall population of develop- ing countries doubled from 1.7 billion in 1950 to 3.4 billion by 1980 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2011). Faced with rapid increases in population and concerned with issues like food secu- rity, public services, and health, many developing countries undertook a variety of direct efforts to reduce fertility and slow population growth. China’s one-child policy was the most publicized; but other countries like Brazil, Mexico, Iran, and Indonesia have also made use of monetary incentives and increased availability of contraceptives and fam- ily planning services to reduce fertility. Bangladesh instituted a program that hired local women to make frequent visits to their neighbors and educate them on the use of family planning services.

AP Images/Imaginechina

The Chinese government promotes family planning services and offers incentives to have fewer children in order to control the country’s population growth.

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

A much more coercive approach to reduce fertility was attempted in India in the 1970s. India’s gov- ernment declared emergency rule in 1975 and ordered local govern- ments to set quotas for forced steril- izations—vasectomies for men and tubal ligation for women—for cou- ples with more than three children. Couples who failed to undergo ster- ilization after their third child were threatened with fines and imprison- ment, and in some cases police were sent to round up men and women and force them to undergo steril- ization (Hartmann, 1995). In the last six months of 1976 alone, more than 6.5 million people were steril- ized in India, and it’s estimated that thousands may have died from infections associated with the surgery. The sterilization campaign proved so unpopular that it triggered protests and riots in various regions of the country. By 1977 public displeasure with the sterilization program helped lead to the electoral defeat of the ruling party and a backlash against family planning programs in general (Hartmann, 1995).

The International Conference on Population and Development

The year 1994 was a turning point in the field of population policy. In that year the Inter- national Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) was held in Cairo, Egypt. The ICPD is widely credited with shifting the primary focus of population policy from direct, and sometimes coercive, measures to broader efforts to address the basic needs of the world’s poorest residents. The ICPD produced a Program of Action containing over 200 recommendations and goals in areas of women’s health, development, and social wel- fare (Ashford, 2004; Barroso & Sinding, 2010). The following were included among other suggestions:

■ Universal access to reliable, affordable, and safe family planning and reproduc- tive services

■ Reduced infant and maternal mortality ■ Increased life expectancy in the world’s poorest countries ■ Universal access to primary education for girls and increased access to secondary

and higher education for girls and women

Compared with earlier population policies, the ICPD recommendations put much more emphasis on indirect means of reducing fertility. The focus shifted to increasing wom- en’s access to education, employment opportunities, financial credit, and health services.

Marco Di Lauro/Reportage/Getty Images

The International Conference on Population and Development’s Program of Action recommends increased access to primary, secondary, and higher education for girls and women.

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These were seen to increase women’s status in society and result in greater empowerment of women in making decisions about their own fertility.

It’s instructive to consider just how the indirect policy levers emphasized by the ICPD influence decisions about fertility. Increased levels of education delay both the age of mar- riage and the age for having a first child. This narrows the reproductive window for women and results in lower fertility rates on average. Provision of safe and affordable family plan- ning services will also tend to have an obvious impact on fertility. The key here is to make these services available on a voluntary basis as opposed to more coercive approaches, such as those attempted in India, which can create backlash against family planning pro- grams in general. Reducing infant mortality would seem to be a counterintuitive way to address population growth. However, it’s usually the case that fertility rates are highest in societies with high infant mortality as parents seek to compensate for the expected loss of some of their children. Reducing infant and child mortality through better health care pro- vision provides some assurance to parents that their children will survive to adulthood, and reduces fertility rates in the process. Finally, providing women with small business and employment opportunities has also been demonstrated to reduce fertility. Efforts in this area have often taken the form of micro-credit or micro-lending programs that lend individuals or groups of women a small amount of money to start their own business. The economic independence provided to women because of these programs carries over to decisions about fertility, empowering them to resist spousal and societal pressure for large families (Nugent, 2010; Bruce & Bongaarts, 2010). Overall, these approaches also tend to reduce poverty, and there are clear statistical links between reduced poverty and lower fertility (see figure 8.8).

The ICPD Program of Action, approved by 179 countries, also called for annual spend- ing of more than $20 billion a year to provide adequate family planning services. Two- thirds of this amount was to come from developing countries themselves, with the other one-third to come from developed countries. By 2010, however, developing countries had met only half this target, while developed countries had met less than one-fourth of the amount pledged (Barroso & Sinding, 2010). This lack of funding, combined with religious and cultural opposition to family planning services, has limited their availability in many developing countries. Contraceptive use by married women is now higher than 60% worldwide, though an estimated 215 million women in developing countries have an unmet need for family planning services (Engelman, 2011a).

The ICPD put the links between fertility and economic and human development at the cen- ter of population policy efforts. The fundamental argument behind the approaches called for in the ICPD Program of Action is that “development is the best contraceptive.” Invest- ments in education, health care, sanitation, and economic opportunity are also promoted

Indirect Means for Slowing Population Growth

In this video lecture Hans Rosling, professor of global health at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden, explains how education, better health care, and improved living standards com- bine to lower fertility rates and slow population growth. Go to http://www.ted.com and search for "Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box" to view the video.

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

as paying a “double dividend.” Not only do they serve to lower fertility rates, they also meet social justice objectives of providing for a better life for the world’s poorest citizens. There is clear evidence that both direct and indirect efforts to lower fertility have been suc- cessful. With the exception mainly of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates have fallen to near or even below replacement rate in dozens of developing countries. But even as this happened there has been something of a shift in the debate over the link between population growth and the environment. More and more observers are pointing to high

Country Case Study: Comparing Population Policies in China and Thailand

China has perhaps the most well-known and controversial population control program in the world. China is currently the world’s most populous nation with a 2010 population of 1.33 billion people, roughly one-fifth of the world’s total. But it’s possible that China’s popu- lation would be closer to 2 billion today had it not taken steps to reduce fertility and birth rates more than 30 years ago (Cunningham & Cunningham, 2012). After suffering through famines that killed as many as 30 million people in the 1960s, China launched a number of family planning campaigns that culminated in a one-child-per-family policy in 1979. This

(continued)

Population Justice Project, Population Growth, Inequality and Poverty, retrieved from http://popjustice.org/2009/10/population-growth-poverty/. Reprinted by permission.

Generally speaking, fertility rates tend to be higher in countries with low incomes. This is likely due to a number of reasons. Low-income countries often suffer from high rates of infant and child mortality, and these lead parents to have more children to compensate. Women in low-income countries also often lack access to education, health care, contraceptives, and family planning services—all factors that tend to increase fertility rates.

100

80

60

40

20

0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total fertility rate

P e rc

e n

ta g

e o

f p

o p

u la

ti o

n li v in

g o

n <

$ 2 p

e r

d a y

Figure 8.7: Relationship between poverty and fertility rate

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

policy relied on a variety of rewards and punishments to encourage compliance. Families with only one child were provided with better access to health care, education, housing, and employment opportunities. Families with more than one child lost these privileges and were also subject to monetary fines.

While it has been successful in achieving rapid reductions in fertility rates—from over 5 in 1970 to under 2 by 2000—China’s one-child policy has also been criticized on human rights and other grounds. Zealous enforcement of the policy in its early years often resulted in forced abortions and mass sterilizations such as those that occurred in India. In 1991, 12.5 million Chinese citi- zens underwent sterilization, oftentimes against their will and facing the threat of violence and official brutality (Hartmann, 1995). A cultural preference for sons has also led to high rates of selective abortions of female fetuses, large numbers of female babies being given up for adoption, and even female infanticide—the deliberate kill- ing of a child within its first year. This has resulted in China having one of the most unbalanced male-female sex ratios in the world with approximately 120 boys for every 100 girls. Such a skewed male-female sex ratio in a country the size of China has resulted in millions of men being unable to find a spouse and have children. In China these men are known as guang gun-er or literally “bare branches” since they are branches of a family tree unable to bear fruit. Of concern is the observed connection between unmarried men, violent crime, and social instability (Hudson & Den Boer, 2004).

At about the same time that China was instituting its one-child policy, the Southeast Asian nation of Thailand was adopting a very different approach to population policy. Like China, in 1970 Thailand had high fertility rates (almost six children per woman) and a popula- tion that was increasing by more than 1 million people every year (United Nations Popula- tion Division, 2011). The Thai minister of health at the time, Mechai Viravaidya (1941–), launched a humorous public relations campaign to increase the availability and use of con- traceptives. He founded the Population and Community Development Association (PDA) to promote this work. PDA workers crisscrossed the country handing out condoms, holding family planning education clinics, sponsoring condom balloon-blowing contests, and paint- ing birth control advertisements on buses, billboards, and even the sides of water buffaloes. The PDA campaign used humor to encourage a more open discussion in polite Thai society about the use of contraception. They combined this with projects to promote economic development and increased education in order to encourage families to want to have fewer

(continued)

Country Case Study: Comparing Population Policies in China and Thailand (continued)

Apichart Weerawong/AP Images

One of the recommendations in the International Conference on Population and Development’s Program of Action is to increase access to primary education for girls and access to secondary and higher education for girls and women.

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

material consumption rates in the developed countries of the world, as opposed to high population growth rates in the developing countries, as the greatest threat to the global environment. The next section examines this debate.

Population and the Environment

The link between population growth and environmental change would seem obvious. More people mean more energy, food, water, and resource consumption. It also means increased generation of pollution and waste products. For this reason, efforts to slow and eventually halt population growth are often near the top of the agenda for many environ- mental organizations. However, the link between population size and environmental impact is not always obvious. Some of the worst environmental degradation in the world happens in sparsely inhabited regions, such as widespread deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Meanwhile, there are examples of densely populated regions, such as the island of Java in Indonesia, where relatively sustainable resource management practices have

children. By just about any measure Mechai Viravaidya’s campaign could be considered a success. Thailand’s fertility rate is now only 1.7, and condoms are now affectionately known in that country as “mechais” (Cunningham & Cunningham, 2012).

Critical Thinking Questions

1. China’s approach to family planning and fertility reduction is considered among the most coercive of any in the world. However, defenders of this program argue that China had no choice given the demographic challenges it faced at the time of its implementa- tion. What do you think of this debate and China’s approach to managing its population?

2. The Thai approach to family planning has been markedly different than China’s, yet it has also met with success in terms of reducing fertility. Besides increasing the availabil- ity and social acceptance of contraceptives, the Thai program also emphasized educa- tion and economic development. How might these other factors have worked to lower fertility?

3. It’s been argued that “bare branches,” unmarried men without children, are a growing threat to social stability in countries like China and India. What might the connections be between a skewed sex ratio, high numbers of unmarried men, violent crime, and social instability?

Humor Used to Reduce Population Growth

In this short video lecture, Thailand’s former Minister of Health Mechai Viravaidya, also known as “Mr. Condom,” explains how that country combined humor, education, and improvements in living standards to reduce population growth. Go to http://www.ted.com and search for "Mechai Viravaidya: How Mr. Condom made Thailand a better place" to view the video.

Country Case Study: Comparing Population Policies in China and Thailand (continued)

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Section 8.2 Population Policy CHAPTER 8

been in place for decades. An interesting case of this unexpected link between population density and environmental conditions can be found in the Machakos District of Kenya. Rapid population growth in Machakos in the early part of the 20th century led to predic- tions that this region would eventually become an uninhabitable wasteland. However, despite a quadrupling of the population in Machakos since then, environmental condi- tions have actually gotten better. A larger population has allowed farmers to practice more labor-intensive forms of agriculture, such as building terraces on steep slopes to reduce soil erosion and land degradation (Malakoff, 2011). The Machakos case thus suggests that it’s not just the absolute numbers of people that determine a population’s environmental impact, but rather how they manage resources consumption.

Consumption patterns of those living in wealthy developing countries may actually play a larger role in environ- mental degradation than population size and density. A simple relation- ship called the I = PAT formula has been used to make this argument. The “I” factor in the formula stands for the environmental impact of a given pop- ulation. “I” is a function of the size of the population (P), multiplied by the average affluence or consumption per individual in that population (A), mul- tiplied by some measure of technology used by members of that population (T) (Ehrlich & Ehrlich, 2008). Developing countries have a greater impact on the environment through the population factor (P), while developed countries exert greater influence through their consumption patterns (A). The technol- ogy factor can manifest itself in differ- ent ways. For example, affluence allows a population to invest more resources in pollution control and energy effi- ciency technology, potentially reducing its environmental impact. At the same time, increased affluence can result in

The Machakos Miracle

In this short video, science writer David Malakoff describes what some are calling the “Machakos Miracle.” Despite the success of sustainable agriculture in Machakos, Malakoff wonders whether conditions there can be replicated or repeated in other parts of the world. http://video.sciencemag.org/Featured/1082712982001/1

Christopher Pillitz/Getty Images & Eric Audras/Getty Images

Vast differences in energy consumption between citizens in developing countries and those in developed countries point to the need to address issues of overconsumption.

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Section 8.3 Population and Food Security CHAPTER 8

fundamental changes in the kinds of technologies used by the average citizen with pro- foundly negative impacts on the environment. This can be illustrated by looking at the shift from bicycles to motorcycles and automobiles in rapidly developing countries like China.

The I = PAT formula makes clear the wide gap that exists in resource consumption patterns between developed and developing nations, and in this sense it is similar to the ecological footprint concept introduced in Chapter 7. It’s estimated that the world’s richest 0.5 bil- lion people, representing 7% of the global population, produce 50% of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, the poorest 50% of the world’s population produce just 7% of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions (Pearce, 2009). Meanwhile, an average citizen of a country like the United States consumes nearly 40 times the amount of energy as a typical person in Bangladesh (Bapna, 2011). These kinds of statistics lead some observers to sug- gest that overpopulation could be less of a concern than overconsumption (Pearce, 2009). This is especially true given that there are millions of residents in developing countries like China and India that are entering the middle class each year (Bapna, 2011). Likewise,

there are billions of people around the world currently living on less than $2 a day. These individuals aspire to a better life for themselves and their families, and this usually means an increase in energy and resource consumption. Whether the water, energy, and other resource needs of a rising population can be met without irreparably harming the envi- ronment hinges on how the needs of these billions of people are met in the decades ahead.

8.3 Population and Food Security

Of all of the challenges associated with a growing human population, the most pressing concerns seem to be related to food security. Whether the world can pro-duce enough food to feed 8, 10, or 12 billion people lies at the heart of debates over population policy.

Feeding the First 7 Billion

Just a few years before the world would see its billionth person in 1804, an English scholar was already sounding the alarm over the dangers of a growing population. In a series of

Weathering Change

This 14-minute video entitled “Weathering Change” looks at the differences in consumption patterns between rich and poor through the eyes of four women struggling to provide for their families. It provides an interesting and human perspective on the debate over whether population growth in developing countries, or overconsumption in developed countries, is of primary concern. http://www.populationaction.org/Video/Weathering_Change/Summary.php

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Section 8.3 Population and Food Security CHAPTER 8

essays published between 1798 and 1826, Reverend Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) warned that human populations would grow at an exponential rate. In contrast, food supplies could only grow at a slower, linear rate. The result, Malthus predicted, would be increas- ing starvation, famine, disease, and social collapse as human population outstripped its food supply. In the decades that followed there were indeed periods of devastating fam- ine, including a potato famine in Europe in the 1840s that in Ireland alone killed at least 1 million people and drove another 2 million to leave that country in desperation. How- ever, human population continued to increase and food supply, with some exceptions, along with it. Increases in food supply resulted from opening up new land for farming and increased mechanization and modernization of agriculture. In particular, breakthroughs in the production of synthetic fertilizer in the late-19th century, especially in the produc- tion of nitrogen fertilizer on an industrial scale, enabled continued increases in food pro- duction. It’s been estimated that without the development and use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer the world’s population would never have exceeded 4 billion people (Engelman, 2011b).

By the 1960s, however, with world population having grown to more than 3 billion people with another billion added every 12 years, it appeared that the predictions of Reverend Malthus might come true after all. Massive famines in China, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia claimed millions of lives and provoked a resurgence in “Malthusian” thinking about population and food security. In 1968, Stanford University ecologist Paul Ehrlich (1932–) published a book titled The Population Bomb, in which he warned that many regions of the world would soon face mass starvation and upheaval due to runaway population growth. However, global food production was, for the most part, able to keep up with population growth in the decades that followed the publication of Ehrlich’s book.

The Green Revolution

The increase in food production in the second half of the 20th century was due mainly to advances in agricultural production known as the Green Revolution. The Green Revolu- tion was not the result of a single breakthrough or technology but rather the collective result of a number of changes in the way humans grew food. Plant breeders, such as Nobel Prize winner Norman Borlaug (1914–2009), developed new, high-yielding varieties of wheat, rice, and corn that produced as much as four times the amount of grain per acre as conventional varieties. These were combined with the expansion of irrigation systems in tropical developing countries, which allowed for double- or even triple-cropping of the same fields every year. Moreover, increased application of synthetic fertilizers and pesti- cides allowed farmers to grow crops on the same fields year after year. The results of these changes were dramatic. Between 1950 and 2000, world grain production tripled, staying ahead of population growth (Brown, 2010).

Today, however, humans may need another Green Revolution to cope with continued population growth, changes in diet, and the environmental impacts of conventional agri- culture. The impressive increases in yield achieved in the first few decades of the Green Revolution have begun to level off. At the same time there are still roughly 80 million new people added to the planet each year. In addition, it’s estimated that there are close to 1 billion people worldwide who are chronically malnourished or starving (Biello, 2009). Increasing meat consumption in rapidly developing economies like China is also resulting in higher levels of grain consumption since it requires many tons of grain to produce one

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Section 8.3 Population and Food Security CHAPTER 8

ton of meat. Lastly, many of the agri- cultural practices that emerged dur- ing the Green Revolution—heavy use of irrigation, fertilizers, and pesticides—are taking a serious toll on the environment. Indeed, agri- culture is responsible for roughly 85% of global water consumption, and fertilizer runoff from farms is polluting streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans around the world (Biello, 2009).

The combination of population growth, increased demand for grains, and stagnant crop yields appeared to reach crisis proportions in 2008. Food prices surged world- wide, and there were food riots in dozens of developing countries

around the world. While it’s certainly true that the increased food prices and localized food shortages of 2008 were due to multiple factors, not just population growth, the fact remains that food security will be a critical issue in the decades ahead. The next section reviews debates and ideas over how to produce enough food to feed a world of 10 billion or more.

Feeding Future Billions

In 2010, farmers around the world produced 2.26 billion tons of cereal grains like corn, rice, and wheat (Cohen, 2011b). Nutritionists estimate that the food energy required for an average human is 0.2 tons of cereal grains per year. This means that the 2.26 billion tons of grain production could theoretically feed more than 11 billion people. Yet we know that close to 1 billion of the 7 billion people on the planet today experience chronic undernour- ishment or starvation. The explanation for this gap between theoretical food supply and actual availability for everyone on the planet lies in the way humans use crops. Less than half of global grain production (46%) actually goes directly to feeding people. More than one-third is instead fed to animals—cows, pigs, chickens—for meat production, while roughly 20% is used to make industrial products like biofuels and plastics (Cohen, 2011a). It would appear, then, that starvation has less to do with food supply than with access of the world’s poorest people to food for nourishment. Yet increasing numbers of people in developing countries are shifting to a more meat-based diet, a development that is sure to put even greater pressure on global grain availability.

Meeting the food requirements of the next 2, 3, or 4 billion people once again poses a Malthusian dilemma. Crop yields no longer increase the way they once did in response to greater applications of fertilizers and pesticides. Therefore, some experts call for a sec- ond Green Revolution based on wider use of genetic engineering in agriculture. Others suggest that a combination of improved efficiency in conventional agriculture, reduced

Mohamed Sheikh Nor/AP Images

On May 8, 2008, a Somali demonstration against high food prices turned violent when two protestors were shot and killed.

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waste, and modified diets could help to close any impending food gap or shortfall in food production.

Genetic engineering or the genetic modification of food crops represents a fundamentally new approach to improving the yield or other characteristics of crops. Traditional plant breeding typically combined varieties of the same plant to produce new varieties with desired characteristics. For example, a wheat plant that produced abundant grain but was damaged easily by frost could be crossbred with another wheat plant that had a greater tolerance for frost. The resulting wheat plant, developed after repeated breeding of the two, would feature both desirable traits—abundant grain production and frost tolerance. In contrast, genetically modified, or GM crops, are produced by removing genetic mate- rial from one organism and combining it with the DNA of another. These gene transfers are often described as novel because they would usually never occur on their own in the natural world. For example, genetic material from fish or plants high in omega-3 fatty acids have been inserted into soybean plants to produce soybean oil high in the fatty acids believed to be beneficial to heart health (Science, 2010). Genetic modification can be used to develop plants that withstand frost, drought, pests, and disease. It’s also argued that genetic modification can produce plants with higher nutritional content and greater yields. However, the genetic modification of food crops has met with significant resis- tance in some developing countries like India and in Africa due to concerns over possible impacts on human health and the environment. Whether GM crops will have a significant impact on food production globally in the next few decades remains to be seen.

An alternative approach to increasing food production and meeting the needs of a rising population was laid out in an influential report published in 2011 in the journal Nature (Foley et al., 2011). The authors of this report first describe a series of challenges facing our food system. Based on current trends, food production will need to double in the next few decades to keep pace with population growth, rising meat consumption, and increased use of biofuels derived from crops like corn and soybeans. At the same time, agriculture is

iStockphoto/Thinkstock

Advances in agricultural technology, improvements in food distribution, better management of existing farmlands, and increased access to adequate food supplies all play a part in meeting the food needs of the world’s growing population.

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now one of the dominant causes of a whole variety of environmental problems, including climate change, deforestation, and water pollution. Agriculture already occupies 38% of the Earth’s surface, and most of the lands suitable for crop production have already been brought under cultivation. This means that there is little chance for increased food pro- duction through expansion of cropland.

Faced with these challenges the authors of the Nature report offer a number of recommen- dations to both meet world food requirements and reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. The most important of these recommendations is to increase yield on farm- land already in production but underperforming relative to its potential. Better fertil- izer management and precision application of irrigation water could, for example, help close yield gaps and increase production while also reducing environmental impact. This is because the production of synthetic fertilizer requires large quantities of fossil fuels and its overuse pollutes waterways and destroys aquatic organisms. The authors also estimate that between one-third and one-half of all food produced ends up wasted or destroyed by pests and fungus before it even reaches consumers. Reducing waste and spoilage could go a long way toward improving food security. Lastly, the authors of the Nature report argue that limiting meat consumption and the use of food crops for biofuels is an essential part of any effort to ensure adequate food supplies in the future (Foley et al., 2011).

Chapter Summary

The growth of the human population from 1 billion to 7 billion in a little over 200 years is both a cause for concern and celebration. The concern lies with the ability to feed and provide for everyone on the planet. The celebration stems from the fact that this growth in population was due almost entirely to improvements in living conditions and life expectancy. It was, after all, declining death rates not rising birth rates that trig- gered the massive natural increase in the human population of the last two centuries. As declining birth rates catch up with lower death rates, the pace of population growth will slow down. However, there is enough built-in momentum in the system to ensure that we will likely see at least another 2 or 3 billion people added to the planet this century. Meet- ing the food, energy, water, and other requirements of this population without wrecking the environment represents perhaps the greatest challenge of the 21st century. Success will depend on efforts to both limit the growth of population in developing countries and reduce the impacts of overconsumption in the developed countries. A fairer and more just distribution of the planet’s food and other resources could ensure that everyone has enough for a decent life. In the words of Mahatma Gandhi (1869–1948), “Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s need, but not every man’s greed” (quoted in Cunningham & Cunningham, 2012, p. 135).

Chapter Highlights

■ Since 1804, human population has been growing rapidly, increasing to 2 billion by the 1930s and 3 billion by 1960. Since 1960, the population has grown at an even more rapid rate, increasing by 1 billion people every 12 to 14 years.

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■ Demography is the study of how human populations change over time. Demog- raphers focus on a handful of key variables such as birth rates, death rates, and fertility rates to understand past population change and predict future trends.

■ A demographic transition occurs when a population moves from a situation of high birth and death rates to one of low birth and death rates. During this transi- tion, death rates usually come down first, resulting in a period of natural popula- tion increase.

■ Population policies can either work directly on fertility levels through the distri- bution of contraceptives and the provision of rewards for their use or they can emphasize indirect means to encourage women to want to have fewer children.

■ The I = PAT formula can be used to illustrate the ways in which resource over- consumption in developed countries can be just as destructive to the environ- ment as overpopulation in developing countries.

■ Meeting the food needs of the next 2, 3 or 4 billion people will rely on a combina- tion of changes to the way food is produced, distributed, and consumed.

Key Terms

birth rate The number of live births per 1,000 people in a given population in one year.

death rate The number of deaths per 1,000 people in a given population in one year.

demographic transition A model used by demographers to show how birth rates, death rates, and total population change over time.

demography The study of how human popula- tions change over time.

fertility rate The average number of children a woman will have in her childbearing years.

replacement rate Typically 2 or 2.1, the num- ber of children an average woman in a popula- tion should have during her lifetime in order to “replace” her and her partner and maintain the population at roughly the same level.

Critical Thinking and Discussion Questions

1. What is the purpose of demography? 2. Why has the natural rate of increase in population changed throughout human

history? 3. What are the phases of demographic transition? How many are there? Why do

different phases seem tied to different nations? 4. Why does population policy tend to be controversial? What do you think the best

form of population control might be? 5. Why does the education of women have such a powerful role in decreasing fertil-

ity rates? Why does increased education affect a woman’s reproductive window?

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