RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION Risk: Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Assignment Overview Scenario: You are a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group (ECG). You have completed the first assignment, developing and

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Home>Applied Sciences homework help>RISK: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING AND VALUE OF INFORMATION Risk: Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Assignment Overview Scenario: You are a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group (ECG). You have completed the first assignment, developing and

Example

Alpha Alpha
0.25 0.85
Mo Sales, Y(t) F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE
1356 1 1798 1798 0.0 0.000 0.000 1798 0.0 0.000 0.000
1225 2 1466 1798.0 -332.0 -0.226 0.226 1798.0 -332.0 -0.226 0.226
1006 3 1118 1715.0 -597.0 -0.534 0.534 1515.8 -397.8 -0.356 0.356
1132 4 1272 1565.8 -293.8 -0.231 0.231 1177.7 94.3 0.074 0.074
1090 5 1095 1492.3 -397.3 -0.363 0.363 1257.9 -162.9 -0.149 0.149
1722 6 1430 1393.0 37.0 0.026 0.026 1119.4 310.6 0.217 0.217
1602 7 1277 1402.2 -125.2 -0.098 0.098 1383.4 -106.4 -0.083 0.083
1709 8 1751 1370.9 380.1 0.217 0.217 1293.0 458.0 0.262 0.262
1547 9 1962 1465.9 496.1 0.253 0.253 1682.3 279.7 0.143 0.143
1227 10 1620 1590.0 30.0 0.019 0.019 1920.0 -300.0 -0.185 0.185
1308 11 1422 1597.5 -175.5 -0.123 0.123 1665.0 -243.0 -0.171 0.171
1536 12 1948 1553.6 394.4 0.202 0.202 1458.5 489.5 0.251 0.251
1513.25 -48.6 -0.072 0.1910 7.5 -0.019 0.1764
ME MPE MAPE ME MPE MAPE

Practice Problem

Alpha Alpha
0.15 0.9
Mo Sales, Y(t) F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE
1 525 525 525
2 293
3 256
4 425
5 753
6 596
7 391
8 563
9 571
10 633
11 653
12 811
539.1666666667
ME MPE MAPE ME MPE MAPE

Practice Problem-Solution

Alpha Alpha
0.15 0.9
Mo Sales, Y(t) F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE F(t) Y(t) - F(t) PE APE
1 525 525 0.0 0.000 0.000 525 0.0 0.000 0.000
2 293 525.0 -232.0 -0.792 0.792 525.0 -232.0 -0.792 0.792
3 256 490.2 -234.2 -0.915 0.915 316.2 -60.2 -0.235 0.235
4 425 455.1 -30.1 -0.071 0.071 262.0 163.0 0.383 0.383
5 753 450.6 302.4 0.402 0.402 408.7 344.3 0.457 0.457
6 596 495.9 100.1 0.168 0.168 718.6 -122.6 -0.206 0.206
7 391 510.9 -119.9 -0.307 0.307 608.3 -217.3 -0.556 0.556
8 563 492.9 70.1 0.124 0.124 412.7 150.3 0.267 0.267
9 571 503.5 67.5 0.118 0.118 548.0 23.0 0.040 0.040
10 633 513.6 119.4 0.189 0.189 568.7 64.3 0.102 0.102
11 653 531.5 121.5 0.186 0.186 626.6 26.4 0.040 0.040
12 811 549.7 261.3 0.322 0.322 650.4 160.6 0.198 0.198
539.1666666667 35.5 -0.048 0.2994 25.0 -0.025 0.2730
ME MPE MAPE ME MPE MAPE