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National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change
May 2014
CNA Military Advisory Board
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Foreword
Projected climate change is a complex multi-decade challenge. Without action to build resilience, it will increase security risks over much of the planet. It will not only increase threats to developing nations in resource-challenged parts of the world, but it will also test the security of nations with robust capability, including significant elements of our National Power here at home. Even though we may not have 100 percent certainty as to the cause or even the exact magnitude of the impacts, the risks associated with projected climate change warrant taking action today to plan and prepare for changes in our communities, at home and abroad.
When it comes to thinking through long-term global challenges, none are more qualified than our most senior military leaders. Not only do they have decades of experience managing risk and responding to conflict on the battlefield, but they are also experts in geopolitical analysis and long- range strategic planning.
Military leaders typically look at challenges with imperfect or conflicting information. Despite not having 100 percent certainty, they weigh the consequences of various courses of action—including the consequences of no action—and make informed decisions based on their experience and risk forbearance.
It is through this analytical prism that 11 retired Generals and Admirals came together in 2007, under the moniker of CNA’s Military Advisory Board, to examine the security implications of climate change. Their landmark report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, was the first time that such an elite body of military leaders expressed their concern over the security implications of climate change.
Now, seven years later, the Military Advisory Board has gathered again to re-examine the nexus of projected climate change and national security. This update reflects their decades of experience as risk managers and geopolitical security experts. With the foundation of CNA’s established analytical prowess, the report deserves strong attention from not only the security community, but also from the entire government and the American public.
The update serves as a bipartisan call to action. It makes a compelling case that climate change is no longer a future threat—it is taking place now. It observes that climate change serves as a catalyst of conflict in vulnerable parts of the world, and that projected changes in global migration patterns will make the challenges even more severe. It identifies threats to elements of National Power here at home, particularly those associated with our infrastructure and our ability to maintain military readiness.
The update makes clear that actions to build resilience against the projected impacts of climate change are required today. We no longer have the option to wait and see. We applaud this group of American patriots for this important update. We commend its reading in full and its recommendations to the Administration, to Congress, and to the American people.
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
Michael Chertoff Former Secretary of Homeland Security
Leon Panetta Former Secretary of Defense
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To the reader:
The nature and pace of observed climate changes—and an emerging scientific consensus on their projected consequences—pose severe risks for our national security. During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet nuclear threat during the Cold War to political extremism and transnational terrorism in recent years. The national security risks of projected climate change are as serious as any challenges we have faced.
Since we published our first report in 2007 on the national security implications of climate change, we have witnessed nearly a decade of scientific discoveries in environmental science, a burgeoning scholarly literature on global complex interdependence among nations, and a series of reactions (or in many cases, failures to react) to projected climate change. Hence, we were compelled to provide an update to our report. Over several months and meetings, we listened to scientists, security analysts, government officials, industry representatives, and the military. We viewed their information through the lens of our military experience as warfighters, planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and very sobering.
At the end of the day, we validate the findings of our first report and find that in many cases the risks we identified are advancing noticeably faster than we anticipated. We also find the world becoming more complex in terms of the problems that plague its various regions. Yet thinking about how to manage the risks of projected climate change as just a regional problem or—worse yet—someone else’s problem may limit the ability to fully understand their consequences and cascading effects. We see more clearly now that while projected climate change should serve as catalyst for change and cooperation, it can also be a catalyst for conflict.
We are dismayed that discussions of climate change have become so polarizing and have receded from the arena of informed public discourse and debate. Political posturing and budgetary woes cannot be allowed to inhibit discussion and debate over what so many believe to be a salient national security concern for our nation. Each citizen must ask what he or she can do individually to mitigate climate change, and collectively what his or her local, state, and national leaders are doing to ensure that the world is sustained for future generations. Are your communities, businesses, and governments investing in the necessary resilience measures to lower the risks associated with climate change? In a world of high complex interdependence, how will climate change in the far corners of the world affect your life and those of your children and grandchildren? If the answers to any of these questions make you worried or uncomfortable, we urge you to become involved. Time and tide wait for no one.
National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change
Military Advisory Board
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.)
Brigadier General Gerald E. Galloway Jr., USA (Ret.)
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.)
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.)
General James Conway, USMC (Ret.)
Lieutenant General Ken Eickmann, USAF (Ret.)
Lieutenant General Larry Farrell, USAF (Ret.)
General Don Hoffman, USAF (Ret.)
General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret.)
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, British Royal Navy (Ret.)
Vice Admiral Ann Rondeau, USN (Ret.)
Lieutenant General Keith Stalder, USMC (Ret.)
General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.)
Rear Admiral David Titley, USN (Ret.)
General Charles “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.)
Lieutenant General Richard Zilmer, USMC (Ret.)
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The CNA Military Advisory Board
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Chairman Former Commanding General, Army Materiel Command
Brigadier General Gerald E. Galloway Jr., USA (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman Former Dean at the United States Military Academy Former Dean at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.) CNA MAB Vice Chairman Former Inspector General of the Department of the Navy
Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.) Former Director of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program Former Chief of Naval Personnel
General James Conway, USMC (Ret.) Former Commandant of the Marine Corps
Lieutenant General Ken Eickmann, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Aeronautical Systems Center
Lieutenant General Larry Farrell, USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force
General Don Hoffman USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Materiel Command
General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, British Royal Navy (Ret.) Former UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change
Former Commandant, UK Joint Services Command and Staff College
Vice Admiral Ann Rondeau, USN (Ret.) Former President, National Defense University Former Deputy Commander, U.S. Transportation Command
Lieutenant General Keith Stalder, USMC (Ret.) Former Commanding General, U.S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific
General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.) Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
Rear Admiral David W. Titley, USN (Ret.) Former Oceanographer of the Navy
General Charles “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Commander, U.S. European Command
Lieutenant General Richard Zilmer, USMC (Ret.) Former Deputy Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs Former Commanding General of Multi-National Force–West in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
MAB Executive Director: Ms. Sherri Goodman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, CNA Corporation
Former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Environmental Security
CNA Team: Dr. Leo Goff, Program Manager, Lead Writer Ms. Jennifer Atkin, CNA Research Analyst
Dr. Lauren Malone, CNA Research Analyst
Mr. Chuck McCutcheon, Writer
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Acknowledgements
We are thankful to many for their support of this effort. We thank Ms. Cheryl Rosenblum and Ms. Morrow Cater for
their sage insights and feedback throughout the process; Ms. Lee Woodard, who handled the design and layout of the
report; and the Wilson Center, Climate Nexus, the Freimuth Group, and the Center for Climate Security for support of
the initial release. We thank Ms. Brenda Mitchell and Ms. Jennifer Babbitts, who provided valuable administrative
support during this effort. We especially thank the Energy Foundation for its generous support of this project.
We thank the following individuals for sharing their technical, geopolitical, science, and policy expertise with the
CNA Military Advisory Board:
Lt General Thomas Bostick, U.S. Army Chief of Engineers and Commanding General of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Dr. James Clad, CNA, Senior Advisor for Asian Affairs
Mr. John Conger, Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Installations and Environment
Major General Rich Engel, USAF (Ret.), Director, Environment and Natural Resources Program, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council
Ms. Alice Hill, Senior Advisor for Preparedness and Resilience to the President’s Assistant for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism
Dr. Ron Filadelfo, CNA, Research Team Leader, Resource Analysis Division
Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA, Senior Research Scientist, Center for Strategic Studies
Mr. Kevin Knobloch, Chief of Staff, Department of Energy
Ms. Leslie-Anne “L-A” Levy, CNA, Managing Director, Safety and Security Division
Dr. Satu Limaye, CNA, Senior Advisor, Director of East-West Center
Dr. Mike MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs with the Climate Institute
Dr. Jeff Marqusee, Chief Scientist, Enterprise Engineering and Environment, Noblis
BGen. Donald McGregor, Director, Strategic Plans and Policy, National Guard Bureau
VADM Denny McGinn, USN (Ret.), Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Energy, Installations, and Environment (EI&E)
Dr. Jerry Melillo, Chair, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee
Ms. Lindene Patton, Zurich Insurance Group
Mr. Jonathan Powers, White House Council on Environmental Quality
Ms. Nilanthi Samaranayake, CNA, Research Analyst, Center for Strategic Studies
Mr. Ghassan Schbley, CNA, Research Analyst, Center for Strategic Studies
Dr. Yee San Su, CNA, Senior Research Scientist, Safety and Security Division
Mr. Chris Steinitz, CNA, Research Analyst, Center for Strategic Studies
Ms. Nancy Sutley, Chair, White House Council on Environmental Quality
Lt General Jeffrey Talley, Chief of the Army Reserve, Commanding General, U.S. Army Reserve Command
Mr. Roy Wright, FEMA, Deputy Associate Administrator for Mitigation
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Executive Summary
CNA’s Military Advisory Board (MAB) first addressed the
national security implications of climate change in our
2007 report—National Security and the Threat of Cli-
mate Change. We gather again as a group of 16 retired
Generals and Admirals from the Army, Navy, Air Force,
and Marine Corps to re-examine climate change in the
context of a more informed, but more complex and
integrated world, and to provide an update to our
2007 findings.
We are compelled to conduct this update now because
of nearly seven years of developments in scientific
climate projections; observed climate changes, par-
ticularly in the Arctic; the toll of observed extreme
weather events both at home and abroad; and changes
in the global security environment. Although we have
seen some movement in mitigation and other areas
where climate adaptation and resilience are starting to
be included in planning documents, we gather again
because of our growing concern over the lack of com-
prehensive action by both the United States and the
international community to address the full spectrum
of projected climate change issues.
The specific questions addressed in this update are:
1. Have new threats or opportunities associated with
projected climate change or its effects emerged since
our last report? What will be the impacts on our
military?
2. The 2014 National Climate Assessment indicates
that climate change, once considered an issue for a
distant future, has moved firmly into the present.
What additional responses should the national secu-
rity community take to reduce the risks posed to our
nation and to the elements of our National Power
(Political, Military, Social, Infrastructure, and Infor-
mation systems (PMESII))?
Major findings:
Actions by the United States and the international community have been insufficient to adapt to the challenges associated with projected climate change. Strengthening resilience to climate impacts already locked into the system is critical, but this will reduce long-term risk only if improvements in resilience are accompanied by actionable agree-
ments on ways to stabilize climate change.
Scientists around the globe are increasing their con-
fidence, narrowing their projections, and reaffirming
the likely causes of climate change. As described in
Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third
National Climate Assessment: “Heat-trapping gases
already in the atmosphere have committed us to a
hotter future with more climate-related impacts over
the next few decades. The magnitude of climate change
beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the
amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally, now
and in the future.”1 Some in the political realm continue
to debate the cause of a warming planet and demand
more data. Yet MAB member General Gordon Sullivan,
United States Army, Retired, has noted: “Speaking
as a soldier, we never have 100 percent certainty. If
you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, some-
thing bad is going to happen on the battlefield.”
Climate mitigation and adaptation efforts are emerging
in various places around the world, but the extent of
these efforts to mitigate and adapt to the projections
are insufficient to avoid significant potential water, food,
and energy insecurity; political instability; extreme
weather events; and other manifestations of climate
change. Coordinated, wide-scale, and well-executed
actions to limit heat-trapping gases and increase resil-
ience to help prevent and protect against the worst pro-
jected climate change impacts are required—now.
If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen....
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The potential security ramifications of global climate
change should be serving as catalysts for coopera-
tion and change. Instead, climate change impacts are
already accelerating instability in vulnerable areas of
the world and are serving as catalysts for conflict.
As we identified in our 2007 report—and as the
Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2014 Quadrennial
Defense Review (QDR) echoed—the projected effects
of climate change “... are threat multipliers that will
aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environ-
mental degradation, political instability, and social ten-
sions—conditions that can enable terrorist activity and
other forms of violence.”2 We remain steadfast in our
concern over the connection between climate change
and national security.
In many areas, the projected impacts of climate change
will be more than threat multipliers; they will serve
as catalysts for instability and conflict. In Africa,
Asia, and the Middle East, we are already seeing how
the impacts of extreme weather, such as prolonged
drought and flooding—and resulting food shortages,
desertification, population dislocation and mass
migration, and sea level rise—are posing security chal-
lenges to these regions’ governments. We see these
trends growing and accelerating. To protect our
national security interests both at home and abroad,
the United States must be more assertive and expand
cooperation with our international allies to bring about
change and build resilience. The rapidly changing
Arctic region is a clear example where such interna-
tional cooperation and change is imperative.
Rapid population growth, especially in coastal and
urban areas, and complex changes in the global
security environment have made understanding the
strategic security risks of projected climate changes
more challenging. When it comes to thinking about
the impacts of climate change, we must guard
against a failure of imagination.
The world has added more than half a billion people
since we began the research for our 2007 report.
During this period, hundreds of millions of people
have settled in urban areas and coastal regions—areas
that are at increased risk to climate change effects. At
the same time, geopolitical power is becoming more
dispersed. Nonstate actors, such as globalized finan-
cial institutions and corporations, and even Internet-
empowered individuals—or the causes they represent
—are having increasing impacts on the political land-
scape. The world has also become more politically com-
plex and economically and financially interdependent.
We believe it is no longer adequate to think of the pro-
jected climate impacts to any one region of the world
in isolation. Climate change impacts transcend interna-
tional borders and geographic areas of responsibility.
When it comes to thinking about how the world will
respond to projected changes in the climate, we believe
it is important to guard against a failure of imagination.
For example, in the summer of 2001, it was, at least
partly, stovepipes in the intelligence community and
a failure of imagination by security analysts that
made it possible for terrorists to use box cutters to
hijack commercial planes and turn them into weapons
targeting the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
Regarding these threats, the 9/11 Commission found
“The most important failure was one of imagination.
We do not believe leaders understood the gravity of
the threat. The … danger … was not a major topic for
policy debate among the public, the media, or in the
Congress….”3 Failure to think about how climate change
might impact globally interrelated systems could be
stovepipe thinking, while failure to consider how
climate change might impact all elements of U.S.
National Power and security is a failure of imagination.
... the projected impacts of climate change will be more than threat multipliers; they will serve as catalysts for instability and conflict.
Climate change impacts transcend international borders and geographic areas of responsibility.
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Accelerated melting of “old ice” in the Arctic is
making the region more accessible to a wide variety
of human activities, including shipping, resource
extraction, fisheries, tourism, and other commerce.
This activity level will accelerate in the coming
decades. The United States and the international
community are not prepared for the pace of change
in the Arctic
In 2012, the level of ice coverage in the Arctic was
lower than the historic average by more than one
million square miles. While annual figures vary, the
overall trend is clearly toward less ice coverage. The
Arctic is rich in resources, and less ice will mean
that valuable resources and shorter transit routes
will be increasingly accessible. Nations, corporations,
and even individuals will be anxious to exploit the
opening Arctic region, even if they have to accept
higher levels of risk than in other areas of the world.
While the United States and the international commu-
nity prepare for more Arctic activities in the future,
the increased activity today brings high levels of risk
to that fragile area. The U.S. military’s current con-
struct of dividing the Arctic area of responsibility
(AOR) between two Combatant Commands (CCMDs)
under DOD’s Unified Command Plan likely will slow
the Defense Department’s ability to generate require-
ments and respond. Although the United States is a
member of the Arctic Council—an intergovernmental
consultative group—its refusal to sign the UN Con-
vention on the Law of the Sea will make U.S. partici-
pation in the resolution of international disputes in
the Arctic more challenging.
As the world’s population and living standards con-
tinue to grow, the projected climate impacts on the
nexus of water, food, and energy security become
more profound. Fresh water, food, and energy are
inextricably linked, and the choices made over how
these finite resources will be produced, distributed,
and used will have increasing security implications.
From today’s baseline of 7.1 billion people, the world’s
population is expected to grow to more than 8 billion
by 2025. The U.S. National Intelligence Council assesses
that by 2030, population growth and a burgeoning
global middle class will result in a worldwide demand
for 35 percent more food and 50 percent more energy.4
Rising temperatures across the middle latitudes of the
world will increase the demand for water and energy.
These growing demands will stress resources, constrain
development, and increase competition among agricul-
ture, energy production, and human sustenance.
In light of projected climate change, stresses on the
water-food-energy nexus are a mounting security
concern across a growing segment of the world.
Projected climate change impacts inside the borders
of the United States will challenge key elements of
our National Power and encumber our homeland
security. Of particular concern are climate impacts
to our military, infrastructure, economic, and social
support systems
The projected impacts of climate change—heat waves,
intense rainfall, floods and droughts, rising sea levels,
more acidic oceans, and melting glaciers and arctic
sea ice—not only affect local communities but also, in
the aggregate, challenge key elements of our National
Power.* Key elements of National Power include
political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and
information systems.
Military. The projected impacts of climate change
could be detrimental to military readiness, strain
base resilience both at home and abroad, and may
limit our ability to respond to future demands.
* In a security context, National Power is the ability to remain sovereign, protect national assets, and influence the behavior of others toward a desired outcome. Although the United States has embraced a more complex construct of National Power, a series of formal policy documents have introduced contrasting models of power, indicating that National Power has mul- tiple and overlapping sources. In one of its simplest paradigms, National Power is modeled in terms of the ability to exert pressure through diplomatic, informational, military, and economic means (DIME). National Power can also be assessed by degradations to a nation’s political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information systems (PMESII). We are con- cerned about how projected climate change could degrade our National Power/PMESII.
... stresses on the water-food-energy nex- us are a mounting security concern across a growing segment of the world.
... impacts of climate change will strain our military forces in the coming decades.
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The projected impacts of climate change will strain
our military forces in the coming decades. More
forces will be called on to respond in the wake of
extreme weather events at home and abroad, limiting
their ability to respond to other contingencies. Pro-
jected climate change will make training more dif-
ficult, while at the same time, putting at greater risk
critical military logistics, transportation systems, and
infrastructure, both on and off base.
Infrastructure. The impacts of projected climate
change can be detrimental to the physical compo-
nents of our national critical infrastructure, while
also limiting their capacities.
The nation depends on critical infrastructure for
economic prosperity, safety, and the essentials
of everyday life. Projected climate change will
impact all 16 critical infrastructure sectors identi-
fied in Homeland Security planning directives. We
are already seeing how extreme heat is damaging
the national transportation infrastructure such as
roads, rail lines, and airport runways. We also note
that much of the nation’s energy infrastructure—
including oil and gas refineries, storage tanks, power
plants, and electricity transmission lines—are located
in coastal floodplains, where they are increas-
ingly threatened by more intense storms, extreme
flooding, and rising sea levels. Projected increased
temperatures and drought across much of the nation
will strain energy systems with more demand for
cooling, possibly dislocate and reduce food produc-
tion, and result in water scarcity. Since much of the
critical infrastructure is owned or operated by the
private sector, government solutions alone will not
address the full range of climate-related issues.
Economic. The projected impacts of climate
change will threaten major sections of the U.S.
economy.
According to the 2014 National Climate Assessment,
“The observed warming and other climatic changes are
triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our
country and throughout our economy….”5 Most of the
U.S. economic sectors, including international trade,
will be affected by projected climate change.
Social. The projected impacts of climate change
will affect major sections of our society and stress
social support systems such as first responders.
As coastal regions become increasingly populated
and developed, more frequent or severe storms will
threaten vulnerable populations in these areas and
increase the requirements for emergency responders
in terms of frequency and severity of storms. Simul-
taneous or widespread extreme weather events and/
or wildfires, accompanied by mass evacuations, and
degraded critical infrastructure could outstrip local
and federal government resources, and require the
increased use of military and private sector support.
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Recommendations:
1. To lower our national security risks, the
United States should take a global leadership
role in preparing for the projected impacts of
climate change.
This leadership role includes working with other
nations, as well as with emerging nongovernmental
and intergovernmental stakeholders—such as the
Group of Seven (G-7), the World Trade Organization
(WTO), private foundations, and so forth—to build
resilience for the projected impacts of climate change.
At the same time, the U.S. should lead global efforts
to develop sustainable and more efficient energy solu-
tions to help slow climate change.
2. Supported by National Intelligence Estimates, the
U.S. military’s Combatant Commanders (CCDRs)
should factor in the impacts of projected climate
change across their full spectrum of planning
and operations.
With partner nations, CCDRs should focus on
building capacity and sustained resilience. Across
their areas of responsibility, they should work with
nations and emerging nongovernmental and intergov-
ernmental stakeholders to lower risk in those areas
where the impacts of climate change likely will
serve as a catalyst for conflict.
3. The United States should accelerate and consoli-
date its efforts to prepare for increased access
and military operations in the Arctic.
DOD and other U.S. government agencies should
build on and accelerate plans recently put forward
in Arctic strategic planning documents. The Arctic
is already becoming viable for commercial ship-
ping and increased resource exploitation. The
time to act is now. To expedite crisis response and
requirements generation, the Arctic region should
be assigned to one CCMD. To provide the United
States with better standing in resolving future
disputes in the Arctic, the U.S. should become a
signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS).
4. Climate adaptation planning should consider the
water-food-energy nexus to ensure comprehen-
sive decision making.
Rapidly growing population and urbanization, com-
bined with changes in weather patterns, will stress
resource production and distribution, particularly
water, food, and energy. These vital resources are
linked, and adaptation planning must earnestly
consider their interrelationships.
5. The projected impacts of climate change should
be integrated fully into the National Infrastruc-
ture Protection Plan and the Strategic National
Risk Assessment.
As military leaders, we know that we cannot wait
for certainty. The failure to include a range of
probabilities because it is not precise is unac-
ceptable. The Strategic National Risk Assessment
must include projected impacts of climate change
over the coming decades so that resilience needs
and requirements associated with these projec-
tions can be better defined in the National Infra-
structure Protection Plan.
6. In addition to DOD’s conducting comprehensive
assessments of the impacts of climate change on
mission and operational resilience, the Depart-
ment should develop, fund, and implement
plans to adapt, including developing metrics for
measuring climate impacts and resilience. The
Department should place a greater emphasis on
the projected impacts of climate change on both
DOD facilities and associated community infra-
structures.
This recommendation includes decisions to be
made through any future processes, including
base realignment and closure (BRAC), as well as
expanding climate projections in planning and
design factors for new bases, training facilities,
or other infrastructure. In new or even existing
bases, DOD should explore innovative solutions
such as public-private partnerships to build cli-
mate change–resilient infrastructure, both on and
off base. Climate change impacts should be con-
sidered in all vulnerability assessments, now and
going forward.
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Voices of Experience
REAR ADMIRAL DAVID W. TITLEY, USN (Ret.) Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy
On Climate Science
As the former Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy, Rear Admiral (ret.) David W. Titley is all too familiar with
computer modeling and other scientific ways of studying climate change. But he says its impact was illustrated most
dramatically to him during an encounter with an Inuit Eskimo aboard a U.S. Coast Guard ship.
The two men were standing on the ship’s bridge in the summer of 2010 as it sailed about 100 miles north of Barrow,
Alaska. When he noticed a gauge showing the water temperature was just above 40 degrees, Titley asked his com-
panion if he had ever seen the water that warm, or if his tribe’s oral histories ever mentioned such warmth. In both
cases, the reply was no. “That really brought this home—here we’re talking to the Inuit, the people who have lived here
for thousands of years,” Titley recalled. “They have forgotten more about how to live in the Arctic than most Western
men will ever know … and they had never seen this. That, to me, was pretty profound.”
Titley and other scientists say overall ocean temperatures have responded more slowly than Earth’s land environment
to climate change. But they have warmed enough from the oceans’ surfaces to a depth of about 2,000 feet to have a
substantial impact on corals and marine life. In addition, warmer surface water dissipates more readily into vapor,
making it easier for small ocean storms to become larger and more intense. The link between warmer oceans from
climate change and major weather events such as hurricanes isn’t conclusive. But Titley says science increasingly is
making such connections clearer.
“What we’ve seen for decades is refinement [in the science],” he said. “It’s like when you wake up in the morning, your
eyes are maybe 20/1000, and then when you try to open them, it’s 20/400. So let’s say the science is maybe 20/50 for
what we understand. We still don’t see everything perfectly, but we have sharper resolution.”
Titley speaks regularly on climate change to audiences around the country, including testifying at a 2013 hearing of the
U.S. House of Representatives Science, Space, and Technology Committee’s Subcommittee on the Environment. After
his 32-year Navy career ended, he served as Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Operations, the chief operating
officer position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He is now a meteorology professor at Penn
State University and director of its Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk.
In his presentations, Titley emphasizes both the rapidity of change and the need to manage risk in a civilization that
has become globalized and interdependent. “Now as we start accelerating the changes in climate, are we going to
manage that adaptation quicker than the climate changes, or vice versa?” he asked. “If we can do it, it’ll be a bumpy
ride, but we’ll all still be in our seatbelts and the car will be okay, if we can hang on.
“We know that when things go really bad, that’s when the U.S. military is called in,” he added. “That’s why I see climate
change as a national security issue.”
Another thing the public should understand, he said, is that the scientific foundation for understanding climate change
isn’t new—it was laid more than a century ago.
It came from the work of French mathematician Joseph Fourier, who in the 1820s studied the factors influencing tem-
perature; Irish physicist John Tyndall, who demonstrated four decades later that gases such as carbon dioxide could
trap heat in the atmosphere; and Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius, who subsequently determined that an increase in
the amount of carbon dioxide would result in a certain amount of warming.
“I tell people, this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining,” Titley said.
7 7 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
In 2006, CNA convened a Military Advisory Board (MAB)
of retired three-star and four-star Admirals and Generals
to assess the actual and projected impacts of global
climate change on key matters of national security. Our
2007 report, National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change, identified climate change as a “threat multiplier”
for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the
world and laid the groundwork for mounting responses
to address these threats. This military perspective is
now reflected across the security community, including
DOD’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), in which
the effects of climate change are identified as “threat
multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as
poverty, environmental degradation, political instability,
and social tensions—conditions that can enable terrorist
activity and other forms of violence.”6
Seven years have passed since our initial assessment.
During this period, we have witnessed more frequent
and/or intense weather events, including heat waves,
sustained heavy downpours, floods in some regions,
and droughts in others areas. Nine of the ten costliest
storms to hit the United States have occurred in the past
10 years, including Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm
Sandy. Globally, we have seen recent prolonged drought
act as a factor driving both spikes in food prices and
mass displacement of populations, each contributing
to instability and eventual conflict. We have observed
unprecedented wildfires threaten homes, habitats, and
food supplies, not only across the United States, but also
across Australia, Europe, Central Russia, and China. We
have seen entire low-lying island nations begin to plan
for complete evacuation to escape rising sea levels.
We have seen record melting of the Arctic ice and more than
a hundredfold increase in operations in that fragile area.
In addition to observed changes in weather patterns,
we note that the scientific community continues to
coalesce around the projected impacts of climate change.
According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment:
“More than 97 percent of scientists in this field agree
that the world is unequivocally warming and that human
activity is the primary cause of the warming experienced
over the past 50 years.”7
We recognize that skepticism is important in the scien-
tific process, especially in the continual refinement of
theories, and that healthy debate in the area of climate
change can serve to advance science, but falling short
of 100 percent agreement is not a justifiable reason
for inaction. As noted by MAB member Admiral Frank
“Skip” Bowman, United States Navy, Retired:
Managing risk is seldom about dealing with
absolute certainties but, rather, involves careful
analysis of the probability of an event and the
resultant consequences of that event occurring.
Even very low probability events with devastating
consequences must be considered and mitigation/
adaptation schemes developed and employed.
We operate our nuclear submarine fleet in this
Why the MAB Is Issuing This Report Now
◀ We are already seeing the impacts of climate change that were predicted at the time of our first report. In some cases, the impacts are developing faster than we predicted. Action is needed now.
◀ Projected climate change scenarios could become “catalysts for conflict” that could worsen problems both at home and abroad.
◀ We are increasingly concerned over the lack of comprehensive action by the international community to address projected climate change issues. The United States has an obligation to take a leadership role.
I.
Even very low probability events with devastating consequences must be considered....
8 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
fashion. Some may argue that this continuing
process results in overdesign and overcautious-
ness. Maybe so, but our U.S. submarine safety
record testifies to the wisdom of this approach.
That’s where we should be with climate change
knowns and unknowns.
As we witness the climate around us changing, we also
observe a growing segment of the population becoming
increasingly at risk to the effects of climate changes.
Since 2006, more than half a billion people have been
added to the world’s population. Most of that popula-
tion growth has been in areas already suffering water
and food resource challenges. Across the globe, we
have also seen a tremendous shift of population to the
coasts and urban areas. Half of the world’s population
now lives in cities, and according to the United Nations,
about one billion are urban slum dwellers.
While cities can hold the promise of providing more
efficient services, the reality is that urban living pro-
motes more resource-intensive lifestyles and concen-
trates consumption and waste production. In light
of these shifting demographics, we believe that the
projected impacts of climate change will stress already-
limited resources and negatively impact governments’
abilities to provide necessary human support systems.
Populations will likely become disenfranchised and
even more vulnerable to extremists and revolutionary
influences. In these areas, climate change will not only
multiply threats, but will serve as a potential catalyst
for conflict.
DOD’s 2014 QDR observes that “average global tem-
peratures are increasing, and severe weather patterns
are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other
global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more
affluent populations … will devastate homes, land, and
infrastructure.”
This strategic defense planning document furthe
warns, “The impacts of climate change may increase the
frequency, scale, and complexity of future [DOD] mis-
sions.”9 At the same time, it describes the need for the
United States to make “tough choices … in a period of
fiscal austerity to maintain the world’s finest fighting
forces. These include reducing force structure in order
to protect and expand critical capabilities, modernizing
the forces, and investing in readiness.”10 As a result, we
are issuing this update to revisit the nexus of climate
change and national security, and to highlight the need
for these “tough choices” to consider fully the projected
impacts of climate change.
Recognition of the Risks
It is the MAB’s collective experience that the risks
associated with climate change, as identified in its
2007 report, are comprehensive and accelerating.
The observed rapidity of climate change has resulted
in effects that are becoming more than just “threat
multipliers.” We believe that without action to build
resilience in the most vulnerable parts of the world, the
projected impacts of climate change will likely serve as
catalysts for conflict. On the positive side, recognition
of the risk can lead to increased collaboration; thus we
see climate change also serving as a catalyst for coop-
eration and change.
Within the past seven years, the world has moved
toward a greater understanding of the threats posed
by projected climate change and is now moving to find
collaborative solutions. Most countries now identify
climate change as a national security threat, either
through national planning documents or in the pro-
nouncements of senior political leaders. The projected
impacts of climate change are also now included in the
U.S. National Security Strategy and Defense Strategic
Guidance, including National Intelligence Estimates.
All U.S. federal agencies are now directed to “evaluate
the most significant climate change–related risks to,
and vulnerabilities in, agency operations and missions
in both the short and long term, and outline actions
that agencies will take to manage these risks and
vulnerabilities.”11
As we witness the climate around us changing, we also observe a growing segment of the population becoming increasingly at risk....
... climate change will not only multiply threats, but will serve as a potential catalyst for conflict.
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Better Recognition and Better Data, but Wild Cards Remain
Just as nations are beginning to recognize the conse-
quences of climate change and realizing the implica-
tions of the worst climate change projections, we are
seeing the scientific community coalesce and refine
their predictions. Improved models, targeted satellite
monitoring and measurements, and better data collec-
tion systems all are contributing to increased confidence
levels of projected changes, and we are increasingly able
to base assessments on measured and measurable data.
While some disagreement about the degree—and even
the occurrence—of changes to our climate continues
(particularly in U.S. political forums), the potential con-
sequences of projected climate-change events are so
significant that the prudent course is to assess how these
predictions may affect our national security, and to take
action now.
As we indicated in our earlier report, a military leader’s
perspective of risk often differs from those of scien-
tists, policymakers, or the media. Rather than assessing
a range of estimates as proof of disagreement that can
be used to justify inaction, military leaders view such
evidence through the lens of varying degrees of risk the
estimates could represent. As military leaders, we eval-
uate the probability and possible consequences of events
in determining overall risk. Even for those outcomes or
projected scenarios that have low probabilities of occur-
rence, if the consequence is high enough, the resulting
risk demands action. Today, the risks posed by pre-
dicted climate change, in our view, represent even graver
potential than they did seven years ago and require
action today to reduce risk tomorrow.
We acknowledge and are concerned about the measured
effect of rising global temperatures and the implications
they have on projected climate change around the world.
Other events that are being measured with greater accu-
racy since 2007 include:
• A longer fire season. Scientists say evidence sug-
gests more fire seasons that are longer and stronger
across all regions of the U.S. in the next 30 to 50
years. High fire years, such as the 2012 season—the
third worst in U.S. history—would likely occur two
to four times per decade by mid-century, instead of
once per decade under historic climate conditions.12
In 2013, Australia had its worst wildfires in history.
• An acceleration of sea-level rise. According to the
2014 National Climate Assessment, over the past
century average sea levels have risen eight inches,
with most of that rise occurring since 1980. The
one-hundred-year storm surge, such as that associ-
ated with Superstorm Sandy, can now be expected
every 10–20 years.13 The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) now expects area-level
rise of between 17 and 29 inches by the end of the
century—a 70 percent to 190 percent increase over
the estimation in the panel’s 2007 report.14
• The continued collapse in both the density and
volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The 2014
National Climate Assessment indicates that the
models most accurately projecting historical sea
ice trends currently suggest an essentially ice-free
Arctic summer occurring for the first time, between
2021 and 2043.15
• The movement of plant-, animal-, and vector-borne
diseases toward higher elevations and latitudes.
The National Climate Assessment notes that nor-
mally stationary flora and fauna are moving to
higher latitudes and/or to higher elevations at a rate
of 10.5 miles and 36 feet per decade.16 The unfor-
tunate consequence is a greater risk to crops from
pests and invasive species and greater threats to
humans from diseases carried by mosquitos, such as
West Nile virus and dengue fever.
• Precipitation becoming more irregular and intense.
The scientific community projects that climate
change will increase the frequency and intensity of
heavy rainstorms (or snowstorms) in some regions
of the world, and that extreme precipitation events
very likely will become even more intense and more
frequent by the end of the century as global surface
temperatures continue to increase.
• Drought and increased stress to fresh water sys-
tems. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability, the Intergovernmental Panel on
... the risks posed by predicted climate change ... represent even graver potential than they did seven years ago and require action today to reduce risk tomorrow.
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Climate Change found that in dry regions, drought
frequency likely will increase by the end of the
century. This trend is projected to reduce renew-
able surface water and groundwater resources
significantly and intensify competition for water.
In addition, climate change is projected to reduce
freshwater quality and pose risks to drinking water
quality due to interacting factors such as increased
sediment, nutrient, and pollutant loads from heavy
rainfall; increased concentration of pollutants
during droughts; and disruption of treatment facili-
ties during floods.17
Contributing to the ongoing climate change debate are
natural variations in weather patterns. Although pun-
dits may try, no individual weather event or weather
season can be attributed decisively to climate change.
Weather is what occurs day-to-day; climate describes
weather patterns over decades. However, rather than
wondering if any specific events are “caused” by cli-
mate change, MAB member Rear Admiral David Titley,
United States Navy, Retired, suggests an alternative
way of thinking about recent weather phenomena: “It
is more useful to think of climate as the deck of cards
from which our daily weather events are dealt. As the
climate changes, so does our deck of cards. For every
degree of warming, we add an extra ace into the deck.
Over time, unusual hands such as a full house with aces
high become more plausible and more common.”
Even though the scientific community is coalescing
around standard climate change predictions, it is impor-
tant to keep in mind that some “wild cards” remain.
One of the most significant is the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet: If it melts or even calves at an accelerated rate,
it has the potential to raise sea levels by several meters
within a few decades. Scientific data indicate that the
ice sheet is losing more ice than is being replaced, yet
scientists remain uncertain about its future.
A second “wild card” is the ability of the ocean to adapt
to increased acidification. The oceans are the world’s
largest carbon “sinks,” as they absorb about one-quarter
of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere each
year. The more carbon dioxide that is absorbed, the
more acidic the seawater becomes. This ocean acidifi-
cation reduces the capacity of marine organisms with
shells or skeletons made of calcium carbonate (such as
corals, krill, shelled mollusks, and shellfish) to survive,
grow, and reproduce. This phenomenon affects the
entire aquatic food chain. Disruption of the food sup-
plies from the ocean could cause food shortages around
the globe, with considerable security implications. The
ability of the ocean organisms to adapt to this unprec-
edented rate of acidification is unclear.
11 11 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Geopolitical stability is a primary goal for those concerned
with national security. Maintaining stability within and
among nations typically is a means of avoiding large-scale
conflicts. Conversely, instability in key areas can threaten
our security. Much of the emphasis on national secu-
rity since the end of the Cold War has been focused on
protecting stability where it exists and trying to foster it
where it does not.
Our fundamental findings in the first report remain valid:
Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for insta-
bility in some of the most volatile regions of the world,
and it presents significant national security challenges for
the United States. The report noted that climate change—
much like terrorism or cyber-attacks—falls into the genre
of threats that are unconstrained by national or interna-
tional borders. The 2007 report identified several destabi-
lizing impacts that endure:
• Reduced access to fresh water: Changes in rainfall,
snowfall, snowmelt, and glacial melt have significant
effects on freshwater supplies.
• Impaired food production: Increased desertification,
rising sea levels infiltrating agricultural land, the sali-
nization of aquifers, and drought also will lead to
changes in food production. Access to vital resources—
primarily food and water—has been the cause of many
conflicts.
• Health catastrophes: A major concern remains
the potential for significant spreading of the condi-
tions for vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever
and malaria, and heat-related deaths in vulnerable
populations.
• Land loss and flooding leading to population
displacement: About two-thirds of the world’s
population lives near coastlines. Most of the eco-
nomically important major rivers and river deltas in
the world—the Niger, the Mekong, the Yangtze, the
Ganges, the Nile, and the Mississippi—are densely
populated along their banks.
A Changing World
Of special concern to the MAB is that we are seeing the
accelerated effects of climate change at a time when
global security conditions are also changing rapidly. It is
important to emphasize that not only is there now a more
complex global security environment, but also that the
world is increasingly interconnected and interdependent
in manufacturing, and in food and energy production.
Our first report did not address these global interrela-
tionships in depth, but subsequently we have seen inter-
related and cascading weather-related effects across
the world’s regions. U.S. leaders have highlighted the
national security implications of climate change in a
more complex-interdependent world:
• George W. Bush said in 2001: “The issue of climate
change respects no border. Its effects cannot be
reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology.
Evolving International Implications of Climate Change
◀ Across the world, we are seeing interrelated and cascading effects from climate change events.
◀ Complex changes in the global security environment, including urbanization, population growth, and the movement of people to coastal areas, have cast climate change projections as even more of a strategic security risk.
◀ Stress to the water-food-energy nexus is a growing security concern.
◀ The United States must strengthen its international alliances and partnerships in preparing for the impacts of predicted climate change.
I I.
... we are seeing the accelerated effects of climate change at a time when global security conditions are also chang- ing rapidly.
12 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Voices of Experience
GENERAL CHARLES F. WALD, USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Commander, U.S. European Command
LT. GEN. KEITH J. STALDER, USMC (Ret.) Former Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific
REAR ADM. NEIL MORISETTI, BRITISH ROYAL NAVY (Ret.) UK Foreign Commonwealth, Special Representative for Climate Change
On Changing Geopolitics
At the outset of General Wald’s service in Europe in 2003, he was surprised to find that some strategies had become out-
dated. “We found out that we had not updated the war plan to make it current since 1989, when we had a current plan
based on the [Cold War–era] Warsaw Pact,” he recalled. “The reason was, we didn’t know what the world was going
to be.”
Along with General Stalder and Admiral Morisetti, General Wald believes that such planning lapses no longer can be
tolerated as the world has evolved even further over the last decade—especially when it comes to climate change. That’s
because it’s an issue that, as General Wald noted, “has no concept of what a border is,” and because problems in one
nation can have severe implications for numerous others.
Rear Admiral Morisetti, who served as the British Foreign Ministry’s top climate official, pointed to the international
effects of climate change on coastal areas—where offshore oil-drilling rigs are located—that are expected to bear the
brunt of increased severe weather, flooding, and other problems.
“That’s an economic shock; it affects our competitiveness and growth,” he said. “There’s also uncertainty about raw
materials, disruption of supply chains. These countries are often new markets as well—both the United States and the
UK look to those emerging markets for growth. So it’s tempting to see it as a local problem, but it’s a global one.”
Because of the interconnectedness of the threat, however, climate change affords the United States the opportunity to
engage with other nations. As the Obama administration looks to rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region, General Stalder
said, China and Japan are good potential candidates for collaboration.
“One of the things missing in the Western Pacific is this business of multilateralism,” he said. “The region is very much a
bilateral region, mostly bilateral as in the U.S. and another nation. There’s a lot better value in true multilateralism, mul-
tinational cooperation. This kind of thing could be a rallying point. The military part is the easiest part of it.... We know
how to work with other militaries, and they know how to work with us.”
Addressing climate change is expensive, so those costs should be shared as much as possible, General Wald agreed. “It’s
also massive and unpredictable as to where it’s going to be,” he said. “You’d like to interface with other governments to
arrive at an understanding of interoperability issues. When people train together, they become more accepting of what
the perceived threat is.”
Admiral Morisetti emphasized that developed nations can be of service to developing ones, particularly when it comes
to helping them develop their first-responder capabilities. Otherwise, he warned, “We are going to find our countries
having to deploy our military more frequently in this role, and it may not always be a benign environment. That it won’t
be a benign environment will be the exception rather than the norm, but I don’t think you can rule that out.”
General Stalder said he’d like to see a new multilateral arrangement emerge to address climate change. “From my per-
spective,” he said, “the opportunity that it creates is an operating construct among the coalition of the willing to respond
to things in a more cohesive way than is done right now, including a sort of standing command arrangement or coordi-
nation arrangement where countries could contribute to that and offer relief more quickly.”
13 12 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Climate change, with its potential to impact every
corner of the world, is an issue that must be
addressed by the world.”18
• Thomas Fingar, chairman of the National Intel-
ligence Council under President Bush, testified
in 2008: “Global climate change will have wide-
ranging implications for U.S. national security
interests over the next 20 years.”19
• In 2013, Navy Admiral Samuel Locklear, Com-
mander of U.S. Pacific Command, identified
climate change as the pacific region’s biggest long-
term security threat. Climate change “is probably
the most likely thing that is going to happen ...
that will cripple the security environment, prob-
ably more likely than the other scenarios we all
often talk about.”20
• Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in a 2013
address at the Halifax International Security
Forum, said that climate change “… can add to the
challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty,
and conflict. Food and water shortages, pandemic
disease, disputes over refugees and resources,
more severe natural disasters—all place additional
burdens on economies, societies, and institutions
around the world.”21
The 2007 report was comprehensive in assessing
the global threats and highlighting the potential for
the impacts of climate change to contribute to failed
states that could lead to the strengthening of non-
state actors. However, the MAB believes it is impor-
tant to emphasize the emergence of a new, more
complex global security environment. We are seeing
the steady erosion of the nation-state as the primary
international security entity. Of increasing concern
are empowered nonstate actors such as terrorists,
extremist groups and gangs, individual or state-
sponsored hackers who can launch crippling cyber-
attacks, as well as large illegitimate financial entities
and extremist political movements, powered by global
communications networks, that wield increasing influ-
ence and authority. These nonstate actors represent
“enemies without borders.”
A recent example of one such nonstate actor enabled
by the impacts of climate change is Al Qaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Mali. The crises in
and around the landlocked West African nation in
2012–2014 were shaped by an intersection of three
salient trends: desertification and food insecurity
exacerbated by climate change; an ongoing rebellion
by Tuareg nomadic herdsmen in northern Mali; and
weak government institutions that could not address
the marginalization of the Tuareg and their increasing
clashes with sedentary agriculturalist tribes in the
southern and central areas of the country.22 Over-
whelmed by these challenges, the fragile government
was overthrown by a coup in March 2012. Following
the coup, the Malian political system was unable to
maintain influence in northern Mali; AQIM and other
groups moved in and took control.23 As we write this
report, in spite of the support of French and African
Union troops, the Malian government has not been
able to regain control of northern Mali from these
forces, and the conflict continues.
While climate change alone did not cause the con-
flict, it certainly added environmental stressors to
the once-coexistent relationship between the Arab
Tuareg and non-Arab Muslim ethnic groups in central
and southern Mali. In fact, the recent Malian con-
flict fits a pattern of other such conflicts in Africa’s
Sahel region, including Darfur, South Sudan, Niger,
and Nigeria. Climate change—particularly drought
and desertification—have impacted the region for
hundreds of years; yet the region’s environmental
stressors have now become a threat multiplier across
Sub-Saharan Africa, and have contributed to con-
flict dynamics in countries that have never enjoyed
popular internal sovereignty in the postcolonial era
or robust institutions to settle conflicts over vital
resources. Add to this the involvement of transna-
tional terrorist groups and militias such as AQIM and
the janjaweed (in Mali and Darfur, respectively) and
these conflicts become more complex, transforming
resource competition into ethnopolitical conflict.
In northern Africa a growing body of academic
research indicates that although environmental
stressors similarly did not “cause” the Arab uprisings
of 2011, the impacts of climate change may also have
served as catalysts for these conflicts.24 For example,
the research notes that drought conditions in Russia
and China, and subsequent global wheat shortages,
contributed to higher food prices in Northern Africa
and may have helped catalyze and sustain the Tuni-
sian and Egyptian uprisings in 2011. Syria’s ongoing
conflict was preceded by five years of devastating
droughts, coupled with unresponsive state institu-
tions, and overgrazing that decimated livestock,
14 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
devastated 75 percent of crops in some regions, and
forced millions to migrate to urban areas. In both
rural areas affected by water and land insecurity, and
urban areas burdened by inadequate support systems,
antigovernment forces were emboldened. It is the
MAB’s hope that a better understanding of these types
of cascading climate-related impacts, along with pro-
active efforts, can help avoid similar future conflicts.
Risk to Emerging Economies and Markets
Emerging economies are working to understand the
threats they face from climate change projections, but
they are far from prepared to deal with the challenges.
Many of the emerging economies—from Ethiopia to
Panama to Timor-Leste—lack resilience against expo-
sure to sea level rise, warming temperatures, flooding,
droughts, and other climate change effects—which
threaten not only their fragile internal stability, but also
the effectiveness and value of their part of the supply
chains on which the global economy relies. Climate
change impacts both emerging economies as suppliers of
raw materials, and emerging markets as buyers and inter-
mediate suppliers of global goods and services.
In short, the volatile mixture of population growth, insta-
bility due to the growing influence of nonstate actors,
and the inevitable competition over scarce resources will
be multiplied and exaggerated by climate change. MAB
member Rear Admiral Titley warned of the potential for
the military to be drawn into future situations: “We are
going to look back and say that if climate change was just
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief for the mili-
tary, we had it good.... I am afraid that we will soon start
getting into varsity-level instability.”
All of these developments dramatically underscore the
need to strengthen U.S. alliances and strategic partner-
ships with other nations, to build capacity in those
nations, and improve coordination and response opera-
tions, while working on interoperability and standardiza-
tion. This applies to equipment and procedures, as well
as command-and-control capabilities during crises.
Asia and the Changing U.S. Security Posture
As described in DOD’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense
Review, the United States is shifting the strategic focus
of its foreign policy through a “rebalancing of force
structure to the Asia-Pacific region to preserve peace and
stability in the region.”25
As the United States seeks to exercise greater influ-
ence in the Asia-Pacific, it must consider the potential
devastating impacts of projected climate change in that
region. In 2007, we correctly identified that the major
projected impacts from climate change in Asia were
associated with water: In some areas we suggested there
would be too little water, while in other areas (or at
different times) there would be too much.
Over the coming decades, projected climate change likely
will cause Australia, portions of India, and much of inland
China to experience sustained drought, resulting in low-
ered agricultural production and food security issues.
Similarly, many of the major river systems in South Asia
are fed by glacial melt, which in the future may not pro-
vide enough water to meet year-round demand. A 2012
National Intelligence Council assessment held that water
challenges likely will increase the risk of instability and
state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and divert
attention from working with the United States and other
key allies on important policy objectives.26
While drought may be a long-term climate change chal-
lenge in Asia, too much water is a problem in the near
term. Larger monsoons are becoming an increasing
threat to the region, rather than a seasonal source of
water for the region’s agriculture. Typhoons are now a
year-round phenomenon hitting China’s coastal region
and the Philippines with greater frequency and inten-
sity—witness the destructive force of Typhoon Haiyan in
2013. Warmer oceans mean heavier downpours. As the
sea level rises, storm surges will become more invasive,
more destructive, costlier, and deadlier. Densely popu-
lated areas, including many large cities along coasts or
major waterways are particularly vulnerable to monsoon
and storm surge flooding:
15 14 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
• Asia has 15 of the world’s 20 largest urban areas,
including Tokyo, Jakarta, Mumbai, and Dhaka, and
most are on the coast or alongside low-lying deltas.
• Burgeoning cities put enormous pressure on urban
infrastructure—pressure that is only exacerbated by
the effects of climate change, such as flooding.
• Low-lying nations, such as Bangladesh, and entire
island countries, such as the Maldives and Kiribati,
face existential threats in the near term from sea
level rise and devastating storm flooding.
• Projected sea level rise will put critical regions at
risk, including the entire Mekong Delta, eastern
India, and Bangladesh, which combined produce the
bulk of the region’s primary food staple, rice.
While many of these areas have battled episodic
flooding for decades, two important changes have
occurred since the 2007 MAB report. The first is accel-
erated interdependence. “Just-in-time logistics” are
more dependent on transport hubs like Singapore or
parts manufacturers in Thailand, Indonesia, and China.
Sustained flooding in these countries has occasionally
shut down supply chains for manufacturers on the
other side of the world until the flood waters subsided.
Second, the United States is bolstering its security coop-
eration with Asian countries as part of its “rebalancing”
of forces; HA/DR operations likely will increase in the
U.S. Pacific Command’s AOR and more countries in
the region likely will reach out for assistance following
weather-related disasters. In a recent Atlantic Council
speech, Admiral Locklear, Commander of U.S. Pacific
Command (PACOM), reported that he tells commanders
when they join PACOM that they might not engage in a
conflict with another military during their tenure, but
that they will inevitably have a natural disaster to
contend with, and they will have to assist or manage
the consequences. “That has been true every year,”
he said.27
Asia has 15 of the world’s 20 largest cities, including Tokyo, Jakarta, Mumbai, and Dhaka, and most are on the coast or alongside low-lying deltas.
16 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Water-Food-Energy Nexus
If the world is going to feed and sustain eight billion
people by 2025, achieving collective security for water,
food, and energy is critical. The U.S. National Intelli-
gence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
found that, because of increases in the global popula-
tion and the consumption patterns of an expanding
global middle class, in less than two decades demand
for food would increase by 35 percent, freshwater by
40 percent, and energy by 50 percent.28 Over the next
few decades the areas with the highest levels of popu-
lation growth are those already suffering from fresh-
water shortages. Also, the projected impacts of climate
change are most profound in areas where the water-
food-energy nexus is already stressed.
It is increasingly clear that water, food, and energy
are inextricably linked. Water is needed not only for
human sustenance, but also for agriculture and energy
production. Food production requires water to grow
crops and energy to plant and harvest—and to make
energy-rich fertilizers. In some parts of the world,
forests are burned to produce charcoal, and crops are
converted to biofuel instead of food. In other parts of
the world, energy-intensive desalinization uses fuel
to make freshwater. As major waterways flow across
national boundaries, and food grown in temperate
areas is shipped to feed millions in dry, poor growing
areas, trans-boundary cooperation in ensuring food
and water security becomes increasingly important.
Isolated solutions aimed at just one sector of the
water-food-energy nexus may have unintended or even
fatal consequences in other sectors.
As population grows, pressures mount And the relationships between food, water, and energy supplies become critical
Water- Food-
Energy Nexus
Population
Increase PRESSURE:
PRESSURE:
PRESSURE:
PRESSURE: Demands of
Larger Middle Class
PRESSURE:
PRESSURE:
Increased
Urbanization
fre sh
w ate
r +40%
De m
an d f
or energy +50%
Demand for
food +35%Demand for
Because of growth in global population and the consumption patterns of an expanding middle class, in less than two decades three key demands will sharply increase ...
• Food production requires water
• Food production requires energy to plant and harvest
• Crops are being converted into
biofuels in some countries
• Energy-intensive desalinization efforts use energy to produce drinkable water
... the projected impacts of climate change are most profound in areas where the water-food-energy nexus is already stressed.
17 16 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
A rc
t i c C
i r c l e 500 km
500 miles
Atlantic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean
Sea of Okhotsk Sea of
Okhotsk
Barents Sea
Barents Sea
Norwegian Sea
Norwegian Sea
Baffin BayBaffin Bay North Pole
RUSSIARUSSIA
CANADACANADA
ASIAASIA
FINLANDFINLAND SWEDENSWEDEN
NOR WAYNOR WAY
ICELANDICELAND
Alask a (U.S.)
Alask a (U.S.)
Greenland (DENMARK)
Greenland (DENMARK)
Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Chukchi Sea
East Siberian
Sea
East Siberian
Sea
Kara Sea Kara Sea
Beaufort Sea
Beaufort Sea
Northern Sea Route 35-day transit, 7,600 nautical miles
Suez Canal Route 48-day transit, 11,300 nautical miles
Northwest Passage
Possible Central Arctic
Route
Northern Sea Route
Shipping, oil and gas exploration, tourism – all could become more accessible as thick ice recedes
Arctic open for commerce As ice melts, a wide range of activities increase
Potential oil and gas fields
Extent of arctic sea ice, 2012
The Arctic: An Area of Special International and Domestic Emphasis
As Arctic ice diminishes, the region offers a newly acces-
sible abundance of resources—not only energy and fish-
eries, but also new shipping routes and even tourism.
Geologists estimate that more than one-tenth of the
world’s undiscovered oil and one-third of the undiscov-
ered gas lie under the waters of the Arctic. We expect
more activity of all kinds in the region as the ice con-
tinues to retreat and energy and other resources become
more accessible. As one of only eight nations with terri-
tory north of the Arctic Circle, the United States holds a
tangible security interest in the region’s future.
Over the past seven years, the Arctic has witnessed
unprecedented change. Studies confirm that the
mass and volume of old ice in the Arctic is rapidly
decreasing.29 Surface, or young ice, comes and goes each
year—sometimes increasing, sometimes decreasing—but
the newly formed young ice is typically less than 30
centimeters thick and is not a significant safety hazard
for most ships. Even ice that has been in place for a year
rarely grows beyond 1 to 2 meters and is relatively soft
due to the inclusion of brine cells and air pockets.30 It is
the old, hardened, thick ice that has been a traditional
barrier to shipping and human activity, and it is this old
ice that is rapidly disappearing.
Because of the changes in Arctic ice coverage, we
already are seeing increases in human activity,
resource extraction, maritime transit, fishing, and
tourism in this region of the world. Transiting
through the Arctic reduces the sailing distance
18 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Voices of Experience
ADMIRAL FRANK L. “SKIP” BOWMAN, USN (Ret.) Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program
Former Deputy Administrator for Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
On Opening of the Arctic Having served over 38 years in the nuclear submarine community, including over eight years as the head of the Navy’s
nuclear propulsion program, Admiral Bowman acknowledges and is proud that he has been molded by the principles
espoused by the “Father of the Nuclear Navy,” Admiral Hyman Rickover. As Rickover’s third successor, Admiral Bowman
describes the key tenets among these principles as:
• Face facts.
• Respect even small amounts of risk.
• Adhere to the concept of total responsibility.
• Require continual rising standards of performance.
It is through this lens that Admiral Bowman views the rapidly evolving roles and missions of the Department of Defense
and the Department of Homeland Security in the Arctic. “As access continues to improve and expand in the area,” he
notes, “there will be an upward spiral of new opportunities for natural resource exploration and recovery, increased
shipping traffic, and a need for broadened naval partnerships and cooperation.” He further identifies an increase in risk:
“Expect increased calls for search-and-rescue operations and disputes over territorial waters and Exclusive Economic
Zones to continue with higher frequency.” Admiral Bowman notes “with jaundiced eye” the Russians’ planting of a
titanium flag on the Artic seabed, near the North Pole: “The geopolitical situation is ever more nuanced and complex.
The risk of maritime events, or even unpredictable flashpoints, endemic to national security is growing.”
To their credit, Admiral Bowman said, the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security are
acknowledging this growing risk—at least on paper. Several recent planning documents have been issued, including the
National Strategy for the Arctic Region and its Implementation Plan; the Department of Defense Arctic Strategy; the U.S.
Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030; and the U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Strategy. But in looking at responsibility for U.S.
national security, Admiral Bowman is increasingly concerned that, “the United States, in particular the Navy and Coast
Guard, is woefully ill prepared to execute the anticipated plethora of mission requirements in the Arctic.”
“The Navy,” he observes, “has precious few ice-hardened vessels to apply to the task, with the exception of nuclear sub-
marines that are poorly suited for most Arctic missions. As a result, it has allowed its Arctic and cold-weather training
to atrophy. The Coast Guard has but one fully ready icebreaker in its inventory, and even it represents old technology.”
In addition, he said, “U.S. land-based infrastructure to support Arctic operations is lacking. The ability to communicate
is hampered and limited in Arctic regions, and new technology is only slowly being applied to the problem.” He also
laments that accurate nautical charts in the polar region are limited, describing how even nautical charts around Alaska
show large areas that have never been surveyed with modern instruments.
Admiral Bowman worries that the recent outpouring of Arctic planning documents, while well-intentioned, may paint too
rosy a picture of our Arctic capability or the ease of achieving that necessary capability. He cited Admiral Rickover’s fre-
quent railings over reactor concepts that were not yet built, calling them “paper reactors.” Admiral Bowman remarked,
“Rickover would note that these reactors had much in common: they typically were simple, small, cheap, lightweight,
could be built quickly, with little research and development, because they could use off-the-shelf technology, and … they
were not being built.”
Admiral Bowman worries the Arctic planning documents lay out a “paper” way ahead, noting that the United States is
not yet building the capacity envisioned. Without the assets, he said, “the U.S. cannot begin the requisite training and
qualification that will bring the rising standards of performance that Admiral Rickover demanded.” Admiral Bowman
concludes that hard work and difficult decisions lie ahead, especially at this “exactly wrong time” to take on added mis-
sions in the face of budget cuts, downsizing, and restructuring throughout the military.
19 18 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
between Asian ports and Northern Europe by 40 per-
cent and can save shippers thousands of dollars in
fuel costs and emissions. In 2006, while researching
our first report the MAB found that few ships were
operating in the Arctic and none routinely transited. In
2013, Russia granted 372 permits to transit the Arctic
via the Northern Sea Route along its Siberian coastline.
This figure represents nearly a tenfold increase from
the 46 permits granted in 2012, and nearly a hundred-
fold increase over the four granted in 2011. While
only 71 of these ships actually conducted a full transit
across the Arctic, they included commercial cargo ves-
sels from China and Korea, as well as other non-Arctic
nations, for the first time. In 2013, a Danish-owned,
coal-laden cargo ship sailed through the Northwest
Passage, north of Canada—the first-ever commercial
transit of this passage.
In addition to transit, more than 1,000 vessels trav-
eled into the High Arctic in 2013 for operations pri-
marily associated with Russian energy development.
Geologists estimate that more than one-tenth of the
world’s undiscovered oil and one-third of the undis-
covered natural gas lie under the waters of the Arctic.
We expect more vessels of all kinds in the region as
the ice continues to retreat and energy and other
resources become more accessible.
We are encouraged to see U.S. policymakers
preparing for the changing Arctic. Planning docu-
ments now cover the full spectrum of strategic and
operational concepts of operations (CONOPS) in the
Arctic, including: the National Strategy for the Arctic
Region and its Implementation Plan; the Department
of Defense Arctic Strategy; the U.S. Navy Arctic
Roadmap for 2014 to 2030; and the U.S. Coast Guard
Arctic Strategy.
Although the planning documents are comprehensive,
we believe that in some areas the pace of developing
capability and capacity is too slow. While we recognize
that well-established shipping companies may not
divert significant portions of their fleet through the
Arctic anytime soon, entrepreneurs and early adopters
are already pushing Arctic operations, despite the
high risks. In light of the rapid pace of increased ship-
ping and other activity in the Arctic, we are particu-
larly concerned that increased capability is required
today to communicate reliably and to conduct search
and rescue. We need better charts and navigation
aids, communications capability, enhanced disaster
response capabilities, and the ability to exercise
freedom of navigation.
We are also concerned that the Unified Command Plan
splits Arctic responsibility between two Combatant
Commands: U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) and
U.S. European Command (EUCOM). This division of
the area of responsibility (AOR) runs counter to the
concept of unity of command and the tenet of total
responsibility residing in one commander. This dual
responsibility creates unnecessary tension and has
negative impacts on the generation of requirements
and sourcing of assets. For simplification, unity of
command, and timely execution of requirements and
sourcing, we recommend NORTHCOM as the sole
Combatant Command for the Arctic region.
Although we regard the likelihood of conflict in the
Arctic as low, especially in the near term, the long-
term geopolitical situation is complex, nuanced, and
uncertain. Maritime issues involving existing and
potential claims of the extended outer continental
shelf and shipping routes already exist. As a warming
planet affords increased access to the Arctic, the MAB
cannot rule out new disputes arising over natural
resource exploration and recovery, fishing, and future
shipping lanes.
The international framework for resolving complex
maritime issues is the UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) treaty, which provides the frame-
work for maritime partnership and cooperation. Since
the United States is not a party to UNCLOS, it will be
more difficult to have maximum operating flexibility
in the Arctic, and it complicates negotiations with
maritime partners and other Arctic nations. Moreover,
by not being an UNCLOS signatory, the U.S. will have
limited or no say in any future changes to UNCLOS.
entrepreneurs and early adopters are already pushing Arctic operations, despite the high risks. In light of the rapid pace of increased ... activity in the Arctic, we are particularly concerned that increased capability is required today...
20 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Voices of Experience
GENERAL PAUL J. KERN, USA (Ret.) Former Commander, Army Materiel Command
BRIGADIER GENERAL GERALD E. GALLOWAY, USA (Ret.) Former Dean at the United States Military Academy, West Point
On Infrastructure
When he commanded a brigade at south-central Georgia’s Fort Stewart in the 1980s, General Kern found himself
dealing with an unexpected threat—wildfires. “It’s hard to believe that you can burn a swamp down, but we did,” he
recalled. With climate change expected to be a cause of future wildfires, among other problems, he and Galloway (who
share a background in civil engineering) are concerned about the enhanced risk to the military’s infrastructure.
At the same time, General Kern noted that much of the infrastructure on which the DOD relies—roads, bridges, and
such—doesn’t actually belong to the military. He also said he is concerned about coastal installations that could be vul-
nerable to sea-level rise, which is considered one of the most serious impacts of a rapidly changing climate.
“We should also be looking at our overseas installations, particularly facilities in Japan along the coast,” he said. “One
of my concerns is that we get so focused on the continental United States that we don’t look outside of our borders.”
He said he remembers his experiences serving in Vietnam, “when one of our principal problems was getting supplies
ashore. We had hundreds of supply ships not getting in; they were backed up in the harbors.”
Brigadier General Galloway praised the Army Corps of Engineers’ efforts in collaboration with PACOM in helping with
long-range planning in the Mekong River Basin affecting Vietnam and other nearby nations. He said Vietnam’s coast is
disappearing much like the Mississippi Delta, and that as flooding affects that region’s rice paddies it creates potential
food-shortage problems that are a source of instability.
Flooding at home also is a major potential worry for General Galloway, a past president of the American Water
Resources Association. He testified before the U.S. Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee’s panel on water
and power last year about how climate change, combined with population increases, will affect the nation’s aging water
and sewer lines, dams, and related infrastructure.
“Structures designed to protect against current or past flooding and coastal erosion threats may not be able to stand
up against the forces of larger events, or deal with the increased magnitude of these events,” he warned in his tes-
timony. “Increases in population will in many cases require current water and wastewater systems to be not only
upgraded but also to be sized to the increased demands that will be expected. Additional surface or subsurface storage
may be required, and older facilities may not be in a position to be modified or expanded. Major storm flows, which are
currently stressing many existing dams and levees, may increase even more under climate change and further threaten
those that rely on these structures.”
General Kern said that New York City’s experience with flooding during Superstorm Sandy reinforced his belief that
military planners should take particular interest in guarding against the threats to communications lines, backup
supplies, and anything else located in basement areas. “The message there is, look carefully at what you’ve got below
ground in the areas where there’s potential for flooding,” he said.
Both Kern and Galloway hope there can be sustained political momentum to address the issue. “There’s a saying that
the half-life of a memory of a flood is relatively short,” General Galloway said. “When your house is patched up and the
clamor has stopped about funding, you can get into the ‘It probably won’t happen here again’ mindset. The military
can’t afford to have that happen.”
21 20 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
The 2014 National Climate Assessment predicts that in
the U.S. there will be “increasingly frequent and intense
extreme heat, which causes heat-related illnesses and
deaths and, over time, worsens drought and wildfire
risks, and intensifies air pollution; increasingly frequent
extreme precipitation and associated flooding that can
lead to injuries and increases in marine and freshwater-
borne disease; and rising sea levels that intensify coastal
flooding and storm surge.”31 While some changes associ-
ated with climate change will bring benefits, like longer
growing seasons, many will have detrimental effects
because our systems and institutions were built to
operate based on historical conditions and geographical
settings, not on projected future scenarios.
Military
The military’s fundamental purpose is to protect the
homeland, build security globally, protect power, and
win our nation’s wars. We agree with DOD’s 2014 QDR
that climate change may increase the frequency, scale
and complexity of future military missions. Yet the
MAB resolves that we should not build our military
forces merely to respond to the projected impacts of
climate change. Instead, our forces must be ready to
meet the full mission set. In this context, readiness is
measured by having sufficient numbers of service men
and women who are properly trained, equipped, and
organized to execute the mission. We are increasingly
concerned that projected climate changes have the
potential to stress many of the components that con-
tribute to readiness. We expect that projected climate
change impacts will:
• Likely increase demand for Guard, reserve, and
active forces in response to extreme weather events,
natural disasters, and a wider range of Defense Sup-
port to Civilian Authorities (DSCA) inside the U.S.,
potentially restricting the ability of the military
services to respond to other simultaneous or subse-
quent missions.
• Require that we improve training flexibility to
accommodate increasingly challenging climate
change–related barriers.
• Challenge our bases and surrounding communities,
where failure to change and build the necessary
resilience could limit our ability to generate readi-
ness and deploy forces.
• Challenge public and DOD-owned logistic infrastruc-
ture and transportation systems needed to provide
“just-in-time” logistics and equip forces. “Just-in-
time” logistics requires the movement of material to
a specific location just before the material is needed
in the operational or training process.
Maintaining readiness in a constrained budgetary envi-
ronment is already on the minds of military leaders.
In his forwarding letter for the 2014 QDR, Secretary of
Defense Hagel describes “the need for tough choices in a
Domestic Implications of Climate Change ◀ Projected climate change impacts within the United States will place key elements of our National Power at risk and threaten our homeland security.
← The projected impacts of climate change can be detrimental to military readiness, strain base resilience both at home and abroad, and may limit our ability to respond.
← The projected impacts of climate change can be detrimental to the physical components of infrastructure and information systems, while also limiting their capacities.
← The projected impacts of climate change will threaten major sectors of the U.S. economy.
← The projected impacts of climate change will threaten major sections of our society and stress social support systems such as first-responders.
I I I.
22 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Voices of Experience
VICE ADMIRAL LEE GUNN, USN (Ret.) Former Inspector General, Department of the Navy
GENERAL DON HOFFMAN, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, Air Force Materiel Command
On Energy Efficiency and Innovation
When Admiral Gunn thinks about climate change, he remembers a plaque on the desk of the late Vice Admiral
Paul Butcher, a gruff, cigar-chomping figure with whom he served in the 1970s: “Lead, follow, or get the hell out of
the way.”
“That’s the kind of the way I feel about this—we need to be leaders,” said Admiral Gunn, a 35-year Navy veteran who is
president of CNA’s Institute for Public Research. He has given numerous speeches about reducing the military’s
reliance on oil by catalyzing clean energy technology innovation and adoption.
“During the last seven years, it appears that America has begun to surrender world leadership in this collection of
issues dealing with climate change and national security,” he said. “Ceding this has serious economic and national
security implications, and as the U.S. desires to provide security and stability in various parts of the world, the fact
that we are ceding our leadership will make it more and more difficult.”
Technologies such as wind and solar not only increase energy independence, Admiral Gunn said, but emit far fewer
of the greenhouse gases blamed for causing global warming. He said the MAB’s other reports on energy and national
security offer a clear road map to how the military can lead on the issue.
One way, he said, is to encourage the DOD to work cooperatively with other agencies, as it has with the Department
of Energy. He also would like to see more public-private partnerships that echo the successful work that has been
done in housing, managing electrification projects, and water purification and conservation.
Vice Admiral Gunn praised the department’s move toward increasing its use of biofuels. “That is an example where
the DOD can help incubate new advances in technology,” he said. “Even if the services don’t end up buying
enormous amounts of these fuels, providing a market early on in their development that supports financing of
these projects is a great contribution.”
Reducing dependence on oil also is a serious concern for General Hoffman, who remembers the Air Force reaction
during the oil shocks of the late 1970s. “I saw the behavior before and after to address that, and then I see how we’re
addressing it today, and it’s disappointing,” he said. “We did some remarkable things back then.”
One program from that era that the military could return to, he said, is putting in place incentives in which organi-
zations keep a portion of the energy savings they achieve, with the freedom to plow that money back into training,
quality-of-life projects, or any other pressing needs.
“The bottom line was, by paying attention to every energy flow, we really did a lot of great stuff on the bases,” he said.
“You have to incentivize behavior if you want to make change. And not just incentivize it—you have to incentivize it as
close to the point of consumption as you can, so that the airmen or the airmen’s kids feel that they benefit from sav-
ings. That’s what’s missing now [from what] I saw in the ‘70s.”
When it comes to energy efficiency, General Hoffman is trying to practice what he preaches. He designed his Wisconsin
home for passive solar and has installed photovoltaic panels, as well as geothermal infrastructure.
“I live in an energy laboratory that doubles as my house,” he said, laughing. “Net zero is my ultimate goal.”
23 22 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
period of fiscal austerity ... including reducing force struc-
ture … expanding critical capabilities, modernizing the
force, and investing in readiness.” The QDR subsequently
then warns: “The impacts of climate change may under-
mine the capacity of our domestic installations to support
training activities.” The challenge for the U.S. military is
not simple: reduce force size, increase capabilities and
readiness, fix our bases so climate change will not under-
mine our training and deployment activities—all in the
context of a constrained budget. Unfortunately, we cannot
wait 20 years to begin to factor in the projected impacts
of climate change in force-shaping decisions. We must
add those impacts to the decision matrix today.
Military Capacity
The MAB sees several major areas of potential impact on
readiness relating to climate change. Chief among them
is the military’s overall capacity for mission performance.
Response to humanitarian assistance/ disaster response
(HA/DR) and other missions related to increases in
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, both
at home and abroad, will stress the National Guard,
reserves, and Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and require
increased use of active forces in Defense Support of Civil
Authorities (DSCA).
To fight and win our nation’s most complex wars, the mil-
itary relies on a “total force” concept and certain capa-
bilities that exist only in the National Guard, reserves, or
Army Corps of Engineers. Yet the Guard, reserves, and the
ACE already are being called on more frequently to battle
wildfires, respond to flooding and major snow events,
and move water to drought-stricken areas, at home and
abroad. We believe that the increased frequency, dura-
tion, and magnitude of these extreme weather events will
stress these organizations’ capacities and increase the
degree to which active forces will be called on in DSCA
missions. While response to HA/DR and other related
missions should not be a force-sizing parameter for active
forces, the increased demand on the Guard, reserves, and
ACE must be factored into future war plans. Planners
should not assume that all forces will be able to deploy
on short notice.
Military Training
A second area of impact from climate change on mil-
itary readiness is in training. Extreme weather events,
including high and low temperatures, drought and
floods, high and damaging winds, and heavy or blowing
snow have significant impacts on military operations.
These impacts include increased risk to life and safety,
injury, and a degrading effect on mission performance. In
war and other critical operations, commanders are forced
to take larger risks during extreme weather because of
the mission, although often with less than ideal results. In
peacetime training, commanders should not put the lives
of their charges at risk because of high temperatures or
extreme weather. The concern of the MAB is that changes
in weather patterns that will result from projected climate
change will lower the number of training days and reduce
training opportunities.
If conditions are too dry, there is also an increased risk of
wildfires, and certain types of training, such as live fire,
high explosive rounds, or the use of tracer rounds will be
suspended or require that extraordinary measures be put
in place. For example, in Fort Hood, Texas, the use of live
rounds and tracer rounds was suspended for so long in
2011 that commanders were forced to use helicopters to
drench certain areas with water while pre-positioning fire-
fighting equipment, just so soldiers could train with live
ammunition. Similarly, at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar
in California, live-fire training using high explosive muni-
tions is prohibited because of the wildfire concern. If it is
too hot and humid, there is a risk of loss of life due to heat
stress/stroke, and that training will be suspended. This is
a “black flag,” a condition in which non–mission essential
physical training and strenuous exercise must be suspended
or moved indoors.
In other parts of the country, the MAB believes training
days will be reduced by more intense storms and heavier
rainfall. Heavy rainfall and low visibility increases risk and
makes ineffective the many forms of training where visual
feedback is required. Finally, sea-level rise will disrupt our
low-lying training facilities, while changes in coastal eco-
systems may increase regulatory restrictions on the use of
these facilities.
Those charged with operating, maintaining, and building
new training facilities must consider the projected impacts
of climate change on future training operations. Resilience
and training flexibility should be hallmarks of all future
state-of-the-art facilities.
Military Infrastructure
Infrastructure is the third area of a readiness-related impact
from climate change. Climate change impacts such as
drought and sea-level rise will threaten military infrastruc-
24 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
ture and, just as importantly, the communities on which
military installations rely. The 2014 National Climate
Assessment predicts that in the United States, “Coastal
infrastructure including roads, rail lines, energy infrastruc-
ture, and port facilities including naval bases, are at risk
from storm surge that is exacerbated by rising sea level.”32
We have fine-tuned our military to deliver more combat
capability with leaner units; accordingly, the degradation
of a given base today has much more impact to overall
military capability than in the past. Thus the readiness
risk is higher now than it was in the past when a debili-
tating weather phenomena reduces the effectiveness of a
given base or individual unit.
It will not be sufficient to harden bases if, for example, all
roads leading to the base are impassable due to floods or
the entire area is experiencing a power outage due to a water
shortage at a power plant’s cooling facilities.
Many of DOD’s military installations are concentrated in
coastal regions of the United States. These facilities are
particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surge.
At the same time, the military’s long-term use of coastal
installations is, in part, dependent on the ability to main-
tain the continued functioning of coastal ecosystems,
which are becoming increasingly threatened by climate
change. The 2010 QDR noted that the National Intelli-
gence Council had judged that more than 30 U.S. instal-
lations already were facing elevated levels of risk from
rising sea levels. Some military bases and communities
are already working together to build resilience. Here
we highlight the Hampton Roads area of Virginia as one
such military/community team addressing the projected
impacts of climate change (see page 25).
Making infrastructure resilient requires long lead times,
and both the nation and its installations lag behind in
identifying the associated risks. Future basing decisions,
as well as future Base Realignment and Closure
(BRAC) rounds, will have to make climate change a
crucial consideration.
In the 2012 DOD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap
(CCAR), officials indicated that the department “is
already beginning to incorporate climate considerations
into installation-level planning, as well as training plans.
The Department is starting to incorporate climate change
science and strategic considerations into formal training
and education. The Military Services are beginning to
explore incorporating climate risk/vulnerability factors
into installation development planning processes.” The
MAB encourages these efforts, but cautions that they
are not being undertaken with a sufficient sense of
urgency. In times of severe fiscal austerity it is often
too easy to focus on the nearest wolf and lose sight of
the pack of wolves that looms just beyond.
Impact on Military Logistics and Private Sector Cooperation/Partnerships
The U.S. military has become a leaner, more efficient
force in recent years. The effort to pare down and elimi-
nate redundancy has driven excess spare parts and
redundant capacities out of the force, resulting in “just-
in-time” logistics support: readiness is now more than
ever dependent on the logistics chains and spare parts
suppliers shared by the private sector. Climate changes
projected to have adverse impacts on private sector
infrastructure and logistics systems will have a direct
effect on military readiness.
To its credit, the military’s efforts in recent years to
transition to renewable and efficient energy—such
as the Army’s “Net Zero” initiatives, the Navy “Green
Fleet” and the Air Force Energy Plan—begin to make
the military less dependent on traditional fossil fuels.
These initiatives make the energy that the military does
use more sustainable and productive. Given that the
military is the single largest user of oil in the United
States (1.7 percent of the U.S. total), it makes sense to
continue investing in alternative and renewable energy
sources. By reducing our dependence on a single fuel
source, such as fossil fuels, these efforts make our
bases more operationally resilient and our fighting
forces more effective.
The U.S. military will need to adjust to the effects
of climate change on its infrastructure, training and
testing activities, and acquisition of military capabili-
ties. DOD’s operational readiness hinges on continued
access to land, air, and sea training and test space, all
of which are subject to the effects of climate change.
However, in times of budget austerity, it is difficult
to balance long-term investment with short-term
demands, especially when those short-term demands
have national security implications.
One way for DOD to become more resilient at lower
cost is to expand the use of public-private partnerships
(PPP). Under such partnerships, DOD would conduct a
comprehensive assessment of a facility—including the
25 24 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
The Hampton Roads area of Virginia is a particularly relevant example to examine the potential impacts of environmental changes on the military and the commu- nity. The Hampton Roads metropolitan area is located near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in the southeastern part of Virginia. Rising sea levels and storms are of most concern for DOD because of the concentration of military infrastructure and defense industry in the area.
All military branches and the Coast Guard have facilities in the region. In all, there are 29 military sites in Hampton Roads, including Naval Station Norfolk (the largest naval complex in the world), Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek–Fort Story, and Naval Air Station Oceana, including critical defense industry part- ners such as Huntington Ingalls Shipyard, which builds half our submarines and all of our aircraft carriers. Many of the facilities are at or only a few meters above sea level. Over 20 percent of the United States Navy fleet is home- ported in Hampton Roads. It is also a major economic center for Virginia.
The area has hundreds of miles of waterfront from three major rivers that all flow into the Chesapeake Bay. It is an extremely low-lying area, which makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from relative sea level rise—a combination of global sea level rise, land subsidence, and ocean circulation. Estimates of relative sea level rise in
the Hampton Roads area range from 1.5 feet over the next 20–50 years 33 to as high as a 7.5-foot rise by 2100 (above the 1992 mean sea level baseline).34
DOD realizes that the sea level rise will impact not only the Hampton Roads installation, but also the surrounding community. Put simply, DOD may modify roads and bridges, seawalls, piers, runways, and other mission- critical infrastructure on its installations, but the roads and bridges off base that are used by military commuters will also need to be evaluated for potential sea-level-rise impacts and modified as needed. The same holds true for water systems, local airports, local schools attended by military dependents, and other state and local infra- structure. As a result, mitigation solutions cannot be developed and implemented by DOD alone. DOD will need to work with the Commonwealth of Virginia and the Hampton Roads–area local governments to develop a comprehensive strategy. The White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Navy, and other state and federal agencies have initiated a pilot program to assess the impacts of sea level rise. The Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Institute at Old Dominion University is the lead agency, employing a “whole of government” approach to find integrated solutions to sea level rise in Hampton Roads.
Case Study: Addressing Sea Level Rise in Hampton Roads
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impacts of projected climate change—and determine
the actions necessary to improve the resilience of the
facility. The government could share the necessary
resilience development with its private-sector suppliers,
realizing potential joint returns on the investment. In
such a way, the government can harness the private
sector’s expertise and efficiencies, while the private
sector can make a capital investment with minimal
risk and a guaranteed amortization. These types of
partnership investments are already being done at
bases across the U.S. as a means of lowering the cost of
sustainable recapitalization, but it can also be used to
lower the cost of building resilience.
National Infrastructure
As are most developed nations, the United States is
highly dependent on its critical infrastructure. There
are 16 infrastructures identified as critical by Homeland
Security Presidential Directive 7, which include energy,
water and waste management, communication, defense
industrial base, information technology, financial services,
nuclear facilities, and transportation systems. Threats
to our critical infrastructure threaten all elements of
our National Power—from security to the economy to
the availability of vital goods such as food, water, and
health services. We assess that projected climate change
has the potential to impact the full range of our critical
infrastructure systems.
We are already seeing the effects of a changing climate on
critical systems. In the South and Western U.S., extreme
heat is already damaging roads, rail lines, and airport
runways.35 Similarly, warming of the permafrost in Alaska
has disrupted power lines, pipelines, and other infrastruc-
ture, while the loss of coastal sea ice makes the Alaskan
coast vulnerable to storms, coastal erosion, and damage
to coastal roads and structures.36 In the past six years,
droughts and higher temperatures have resulted in insuf-
ficient cooling water, requiring the shutdown of power
generating plants in Texas, Georgia, and Connecticut. In
the coming decades, extreme heat will increase demand
on our electrical power grids, and more droughts will
threaten the water supplies of our electrical power gen-
eration stations.
... projected climate change has the potential to impact the full range of our critical infrastructure systems.
In 2012, Superstorm Sandy provided tragic insight on
the effects of higher sea levels and storm surge on vul-
nerable infrastructure. Coming in at high tide, Sandy’s
storm surge submerged Manhattan’s Battery Park under
13.88 feet (4.2 meters) of water and disrupted public and
private services across New York City. It flooded seven
subway tunnels under the East River and electrical substa-
tions, shutting down New York’s Financial District. Mil-
lions of residences and offices in Manhattan lost power.
In Queens, a fire destroyed 111 homes and damaged
20 more when first responders were overwhelmed and
hampered by failed infrastructure. Similarly, the 2014
National Climate Assessment estimates that a
1.5 foot rise in sea level would expose property valued
in the trillions of dollars to costal flooding in the Balti-
more, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Providence,
RI metropolitan areas. It further estimates that without
substantial investments in adaptability and resilience, a
two foot sea-level rise would flood 212 miles of roads,
77 miles of rail, 3,647-acres of airport facilities, and
539-acres of runways in New York alone.37
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is respon-
sible for coordinating actions necessary to manage
risks associated with our critical infrastructure. To
meet this responsibility, DHS works closely with the
private sector, which owns and operates the majority
of the nation’s critical infrastructure, as well as with
state and local governments, which control much of
the rest. To coordinate across these stakeholders, DHS
uses the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP)
as a framework to integrate climate change risk and
required adaptation into resilience and reporting activi-
ties already taking place.
In the context of operating environments, cross-sector
partnerships require planning factors to guide the col-
lective efforts of critical infrastructure stakeholders.
The national effort to strengthen critical infrastruc-
ture security and resilience depends on the ability of
public and private critical infrastructure owners and
operators to make risk-informed decisions when allo-
cating limited resources in both steady-state and crisis
operations. However, the NIPP lacks a common analytic
baseline of projected climate change that leverages
the best available science and clarifies the anticipated
conditions regionally and nationally; nor does the NIPP
provide regional or sector-specific planning scenarios
to allow decisions related to infrastructure resilience.
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To inform infrastructure preparedness and resilience
activities, the DHS and its NIPP draw on the guidance
of the Strategic National Risk Assessment (SNRA).
The SNRA evaluates the risk from known threats and
hazards that have the potential to significantly impact
the nation’s homeland security. The SNRA uses data
and information from a variety of sources, including
existing government models and assessments, his-
torical records, structured analysis, and judgments
of experts from different disciplines. It does not use
projected climate change impact in its risk assess-
ment. While the risks associated with climate change
may seem distant, the decisions being made today
pertain to an infrastructure lifecycle that spans many
decades—even beyond the end of this century. Conse-
quently, the projected impacts of climate change must
be factored into the SNRA and NIPP now.
Economic
According to the 2014 National Climate Assess-
ment: “There is mounting evidence that harm to the
nation will increase substantially in the future unless
global emissions of heat-trapping gases are greatly
reduced.”38 For example, an increasing percentage of
the U.S. population and economic assets—including
major U.S. cities and financial hubs such as Miami,
Lower Manhattan, New Orleans, and Washington DC—
are located on or near coasts, and they are threatened
by sea-level rise. The cost of protecting and building
resilience in these assets will be high. Similarly, much
of the manufacturing in the U.S. is built along water-
ways for ease of transportation. These waterways
are subject to flooding during extreme precipitation,
and they may also become too shallow for navigation
during periods of drought. Contributing one percent
of the nation’s GDP, agriculture will also be impacted
by climate change. Prolonged drought and water scar-
city will lower agricultural production in most of the
U.S. West and South. Warmer temperatures and higher
CO 2 levels will increase growing seasons and yields in
the Midwest, but this development likely will be offset
by heat waves, droughts, and flooding during planting
seasons. In short, most U.S. economic sectors will be
affected by projected climate change.
Social Support
According to the 2014 National Climate Assessment,
“Certain groups of people are more vulnerable to
the range of climate change–related health impacts,
including the elderly, children, the poor, and the sick.
Others are vulnerable because of where they live,
including those in floodplains, coastal zones, and
some urban areas. In fact, U.S. population growth
has been greatest in coastal zones and in the arid
southwest, areas that already have been affected by
increased risks from climate change.”39 As coastal
regions become increasingly populated and devel-
oped, more frequent or severe storms will increase
the requirements for emergency responders, including
federal, state, local, tribal and territorial, to deal with
a multitude of hazards impacting communities. Emer-
gency operations and delivery of emergency services
will be challenging and made increasingly complex
by damage or disruptions to interconnected energy
and infrastructure networks, thus limiting response
and recovery capacity. Severe weather events—pos-
sibly accompanied by mass displacement, ensuing
pandemics, or degraded critical infrastructure—will
increasingly outstrip normal government resources
and require increased use of active duty military and
resources from the private sector.
Projected climate change in the United States over the
coming decades may result in simultaneous extreme
weather events or cascading natural disasters that
will demand significant deployments of military
forces across regions of the U.S. They may be called
to battle wildfires, assist with flood control, move
debris and clear roads, provide relief or humanitarian
assistance, protect vital infrastructure, or control
crowds or masses of people. The extent to which mili-
tary forces will be used to protect the homeland in
response to projected climate change impacts should
not be limited by our past history of military deploy-
ments or limited by failures of imagination. Accord-
ingly, systems should be put in place and tested now
to ensure that we can optimize DSCA by integrating
military forces seamlessly into federal, state, and local
responders, and coordinate these support activities
with centralized command and control facilities.
While the risks associated with climate change may seem distant, the decisions being made today pertain to an infrastruc- ture lifecycle that spans many decades...
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Concern over the potential for climate change impacts
on our national security—regardless of the cause—has
diminished as a national issue, and politically charged
debate has silenced sound public discourse. As mem-
bers of the MAB we believe that congressional action is
warranted—and it is needed now. Neither the DOD, nor
any other agency, can act alone to address the impacts
of climate change.
The MAB believes that concerns over the potential
impacts of our changing climate can offer the potential
to bring diverse stakeholders and communities together
to devise effective solutions. Cooperation will be espe-
cially important in an era in which military budgets,
like many others across government, will be severely
constrained. Planning for the future of America’s mili-
tary must factor in both the limitations on readiness
accompanying climate changes and the profusion of
demands for military support resulting from climate
and weather–related conditions and events.
We who have served on the MAB are concerned that
while the causes of climate change and its impacts con-
tinue to be argued or ignored in our nation, the linkage
between changes in our climate and national security
has been obscured. Political concerns and budgetary
limitations cannot be allowed to dominate what is
essentially a salient national security concern for our
nation. Our Congress, the administration, and all who
are charged with planning and assuring our security
should take up the challenge of confronting the coming
changes to our environment. Prepare our instruments
of National Power to continue to serve the American
people well as the world around us changes. Take steps
to limit climate changes where possible; for everything
else, factor those changes into all our choices about
America’s future national security.
Our specific recommendations are provided in the
Executive Summary to this report.
SummaryI V.
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Appendix: CNA Military Advisory Board Biographies
GENERAL PAUL J. KERN, USA, (Ret.) Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Board
General Kern was Commanding General, Army Materiel Command from 2001 to 2004, and Senior Advisor for Army Research, Development, and Acquisition from 1997 to 2001. He was commissioned as an Armor Lieutenant following graduation from West Point in 1967, and served three combat tours—two in Vietnam as a platoon leader and troop com- mander, and the third in Desert Shield/Desert Storm. In the 1990s, Kern served as Senior Military Assistant to Secretary of Defense William Perry. In June 2004, at the request of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Kern led the military’s internal investigation into the abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.
He holds master’s degrees in both Civil and Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan, and he was a Senior Security Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University.
ADMIRAL FRANK “SKIP” BOWMAN, USN (Ret.) Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Former Deputy Administrator–Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration
For over eight years, Admiral Skip Bowman was Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion, Naval Sea Systems Command and concurrently Deputy Administrator for Naval Reactors in the Naval Nuclear Security Administration, Department of Energy; additionally as a flag officer, Admiral Bowman served as Chief of Naval Personnel and as Director for Political- Military Affairs and Deputy Director for Operations on the Joint Staff.
He was commissioned following graduation in 1966 from Duke University. In 1973, he completed a dual master’s pro- gram in nuclear engineering and naval architecture/marine engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was elected to the Society of Sigma Xi. Admiral Bowman has been awarded the honorary degree of Doctor of Humane Letters from Duke University.
Admiral Bowman was President and CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute from 2005 through 2008. NEI is the policy orga- nization for the commercial nuclear power industry. In 2006, Admiral Bowman was named an Honorary Knight Com- mander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth. Admiral Bowman currently serves on the boards of directors of BP and Morgan Stanley Mutual Funds.
GENERAL JAMES T. CONWAY, USMC (Ret.) Former Commandant of the Marine Corps
As Commandant, General Conway served as the senior uniformed Marine responsible for the organization, training, and equipping of over 250,000 active duty, reserve, and civilian personnel serving in the United States and overseas. He man- aged an annual budget on the order of $40 billion. As a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for four years, he was as a military advisor to the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, and the President. Previous high-level assign- ments included President of the Marine Corps University, command of a (20,000 Marine) Division, and commander of 90,000 U.S. and British forces during the invasion of Iraq. Prior to becoming the Commandant, he served as the J-3 Joint Staff, or senior operations officer, in the U.S. military, where he oversaw the war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
He attended Southeast Missouri University; the Seminar XXI M.I.T. Fellowship Program, and the JFK School of Govern- ment, Harvard University, Seminar on International Relations.
LIEUTENTANT GENERAL KEN EICKMANN, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB
From 1996 to 1998, General Eickmann served as the Commander, Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, where he led the nation‘s largest center of excellence for research, development, and acquisition of aircraft, aeronautical equipment, and munitions. General Eickmann was the Commander of the Oklahoma City Air Logistics Center and Instal- lation Commander of Tinker Air Force Base from 1994 to 1996; Deputy Chief of Staff for Logistics and Chief of Staff for Air Force Materiel Command from 1992 to 1994; and DCS Logistics, Headquarters Pacific Air Forces from 1990 to 1992. The general served six years on the Air Force Science and Technology Board and has chaired numerous energy-related
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CNA Military Advisory Board Biographies (cont.)
studies for the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council. He is a recognized expert in energy, logistics, and propulsion technology, and has published several papers in technical journals in the U.S. and overseas.
Ken Eickmann is currently the Deputy Director of the Center for Energy Security at the University of Texas in Austin. He holds a bachelor‘s degree in Mechanical Engineering from UT Austin, a master‘s degree in Systems Engineering from the Air Force Institute of Technology, and is a graduate of the University of the Michigan School of Business and the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
LIEUTENANT GENERAL LAWRENCE P. FARRELL JR., USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force
In 1998, General Farrell served as the Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, Wash- ington, DC. He was responsible for planning, programming, and manpower activities within the corporate Air Force and for integrating the Air Force’s future plans and requirements to support national security objectives and military strategy. Previous positions include Vice Commander, Air Force Materiel Command and Deputy Director, Defense Logistics Agency. He also served as Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs at Headquarters U.S. Air Forces in Europe. A command pilot with more than 3,000 flying hours, he flew 196 missions in Southeast Asia, and commanded the 401st Tactical Fighter Wing, Torrejon Air Base, Spain.
General Farrell is a graduate of the Air Force Academy with a BS in Engineering and an MBA from Auburn University. Other education includes the National War College and the Harvard Program for Executives in National Security.
BRIGADIER GENERAL GERALD E. GALLOWAY JR., USA (RET.), Former Dean at the United States Military Academy, West Point Former Dean at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University Vice Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Board
Brigadier General Gerry Galloway served for 38 years as a combat engineer, civil engineer, and a military educator in various command and staff assignments in Germany, Southeast Asia, and the United States before retiring in 1995. He is currently a Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Engineering and an affiliate Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland, where his research focuses on disaster risk management and the impacts of climate change in the U.S. and internationally. He commanded the Corps of Engineers Vicksburg Engineer District and was a Presidential appointee to the Mississippi River Commission from 1988 to 1995. From 1994 to 1995, he was assigned to the White House to lead a committee in assessing the causes of the 1993 Mississippi River flood. In 2006 he chaired an Interagency National Levee Policy Review Team. Since 2010 he has served on the Governor of Louisiana’s Advisory Commission on Coastal Protection and Restoration.
He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy and holds master’s degrees from Princeton University, Pennsylvania State University, and the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and a doctorate from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, has served on thirteen committees of the National Research Council, chairing two studies of future Army Logistics, and is a member of the National Academies Roundtable on Risk, Resilience, and Extreme Events.
VICE ADMIRAL LEE F. GUNN, USN (Ret.) Former Inspector General of the Department of the Navy Vice Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Board
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn served for 35 years in U.S. Navy. His last active duty assignment was Inspector General of the Department of the Navy, where he was responsible for the Department’s overall inspection program and its assessments of readiness, training, and quality of service. Serving in the Surface Navy in a variety of theaters, Gunn rose through the cruiser/destroyer force to command the frigate USS BARBEY, then commanded the Navy’s anti-submarine warfare tactical and technical evaluation Destroyer squadron, DESRON 31. He later commanded Amphibious Group Three. As Commander of PHIBGRU THREE he served as the Combined Naval Forces Commander, and Deputy Task Force Commander of Combined Task Force United Shield, which conducted the withdrawal of U.N. peacekeeping forces from Somalia.
Gunn holds a bachelor’s degree in Experimental and Physiological Psychology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and a Master of Science degree in Operations Research from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
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CNA Military Advisory Board Biographies (cont.)
GENERAL DONALD J. HOFFMAN, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, Air Force Material Command
General Hoffman retired in June 2012 after managing a workforce of 80,000 with a $60 billion budget to develop, acquire, test and sustain Air Force weapon systems. He also served as the Military Deputy for Air Force Acquisition in the Pentagon and the Director of Requirements at Air Combat Command. He is a pilot with over 3,800 hours in fighter, trainer, and transport aircraft, and has served in numerous operational commands.
A graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy, General Hoffman has a Master’s Degree in Electrical Engineering from the Uni- versity of California, Berkeley, and has attended National War College and the National Security Management Course at Syracuse University.
GENERAL RONALD E. KEYS, USAF (Ret.) Former Commander, Air Combat Command
General Ron Keys retired from the Air Force in November 2007 after a career of over forty years. His last assignment was as Commander, Air Combat Command, the Air Force’s largest major command, consisting of more than 1,200 aircraft, 27 wings, 17 bases, and 200 operating locations worldwide with 105,000 personnel. General Keys holds a Bachelor of Science from Kansas State University and a Master’s degree in business administration from Golden Gate University. General Keys is a command pilot with more than 4,000 flying hours in fighter aircraft, including more than 300 hours of combat time.
No stranger to energy challenges, General Keys first faced them operationally as a young Air Force Captain, piloting F-4s during the fuel embargo of the 1970s. Later, as Director of Operations for European Command, fuel and logistic supply provisioning were critical decisions during humanitarian, rescue, and combat operations across EUCOM’s area of respon- sibility, including the Balkans and deep into Africa. As Commander of Allied Air Forces Southern Europe and Commander of the U.S. 16th Air Force, similar hard choices had to be made in supporting OPERATION NORTHERN WATCH in Iraq, as well as for combat air patrols and resupply in the Balkans. Later, as the Director of all Air Force Air, Space, and Cyber mis- sion areas, as well as operational requirements in the early 2000s, he saw the impact of energy choices on budget plan- ning and execution, as well as in training and supporting operational plans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Finally, at Air Combat Command, he faced the total challenge of organizing, training, and equipping forces at home and deployed to balance mission effectiveness with crucial energy efficiency. He is a member of the Center for Climate and Security’s Climate and Security Working Group focused on developing policy options and encouraging dialogue and education on the issues. As a member of the CNA Military Advisory Board on DOD Energy Security and Climate Change projects, he is intimately familiar with the relationship of energy, military, economic, and national security.
General Keys owns RK Solution Enterprises, an independent consultancy. In addition to his energy portfolio, he is a Senior Advisor to the Bipartisan Policy Center, and a Member of the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Board of Trustees.
REAR ADMIRAL NEIL MORISETTI, BRITISH ROYAL NAVY (Ret.) Former UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change Former Commandant, UK Joint Services Command and Staff College
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti retired from the Royal Navy in December 2012, after 36 years of service. His last active duty appointment was as the UK Government Climate and Energy Security Envoy, where he engaged with policymakers around the world to address the security implications, national and global, of a changing climate. Prior to that, his flag posts included Commandant of the UK Joint Services Command and Staff College, where he was responsible for the military postgraduate education of students from 60 nations, and Commander of UK Maritime Forces (deployable fleet com- mander). A Surface Warfare Officer, his ship commands ranged in size from the patrol boat HMS CYGNET to the aircraft carrier HMS INVINCIBLE.
In 2013 he served as the UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, charged with working to help set the political conditions for a global agreement on climate change.
A graduate of Britannia Royal Naval College, he has a Bachelor of Science degree in Environmental Sciences from the Uni- versity of East Anglia and is an Honorary Professor at University College London where he is Director of Strategy for the Department of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Public Policy.
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CNA Military Advisory Board Biographies (cont.)
VICE ADMIRAL ANN RONDEAU, USN (Ret.) Former President of National Defense University Former Deputy Commander, U.S. Transportation Command
Vice Admiral Ann Rondeau served for 38 years in the United States Navy. Her last active duty assignment was President, National Defense University. Serving in the Navy during dynamic years of transition, Rondeau served in leadership, staff, and command assignments in myriad mission areas: fleet operations (anti-submarine warfare, air operations, operational intelligence, maritime transportation and sealift), strategy and policy, operations analysis, training and education, busi- ness enterprise, and shore installations management. She was selected as a White House Fellow, Chief of Naval Opera- tions Strategic Studies Group Fellow, and served two years at the Department of Justice as National Security Advisor to the United States Attorney General. As President of NDU, she was a member of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace and served as a Department of Defense liaison to the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rondeau is a permanent member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a member of the Board of Direc- tors of the German Marshall Fund, a member of the Board of Trustees of the American Public University System and is a member of the Center for Naval Analyses Military Advisory Board. She has lectured occasionally at George Washington University and the Madeleine K. Albright Institute for Global Affairs at Wellesley College. With keen interest in the full breadth of public policy issues and dignified public discourse and dialogue, she has spoken extensively for many years on myriad subjects and has had the privilege of participating in many different and interesting public engagements.
Rondeau holds a Bachelors Degree in History and Social Science from Eisenhower College (and received the Board of Trustees Groben Award for Leadership), a Masters Degree with Honors in Comparative Government from Georgetown University, a Doctorate in Education (dissertation addressed applied research and public policy) from Northern Illinois University and has attended several senior executive training and education seminars. She is presently a senior executive with IBM’s Watson Group (cognitive computing).
LIEUTENANT GENERAL KEITH J. STALDER, USMC (Ret.) Former Commanding General, U.S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific
LtGen Stalder was the senior Marine Corps Military Representative to the U.S. Pacific Command for operations in the Pacific, including Japan, China, North and South Korea, Guam, and Okinawa. The largest field command in the Marine Corps, it encompassed the operational forces of I and III Marine Expeditionary Forces. He directed and supervised Marine Corps Bases in Japan, Okinawa, Korea, the western United States, with 90,000 people, 500 aircraft, and 17 Bases and Sta- tions. Previous high-level assignments include command of II Marine Expeditionary Force, Marine Corps Training and Education Command, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing, and 1st Marine Expeditionary Brigade. LtGen Stalder is a Senior Fellow at the CNA.
He holds an undergraduate and graduate degree in Aeronautics from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
GENERAL GORDON SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.) Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army
From 1991 to 1995, General Sullivan served as the 32nd Army Chief of Staff—the senior general officer in the Army— and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. As the Chief of Staff of the Army, he created the vision, and led the team, that transitioned the Army from its Cold War posture.
He was Army Vice Chief of Staff from 1990 to 1991, Army Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations and Plans from 1989 to 1990, and Commander, 1st U.S. Army Infantry Division (Mechanized) from 1988 to 89. From 1987 to 1988 he served as Deputy Commandant, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas; and from 1983 to 1984 was Assistant Commandant, U.S. Army Armor School, Fort Knox, Kentucky. His overseas assignments include four tours in Europe, two in Vietnam, and one in Korea. He served as Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Defense during the adminis- tration of President George H. W. Bush.
Sullivan holds a bachelor of arts degree in History from Norwich University and a master of arts degree in Political Science from the University of New Hampshire.
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CNA Military Advisory Board Biographies (cont.)
REAR ADMIRAL DAVID W. TITLEY, USN (Ret.) Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy
Rear Admiral David Titley retired from the Navy in 2012. Dr. Titley is now a senior scientist in the Department of Meteorology at Penn State. He is also the founding director of Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. Dr. Titley served as a naval officer for 32 years, rising to the rank of rear admiral; his career included duties as oceanographer and navigator of the Navy. In 2009, he initiated and led the U.S. Navy Task Force on Climate Change. Titley holds a bachelor of science in meteorology from Penn State. From the Naval Postgraduate School, he earned an MS in meteorology and physical oceanography, and a PhD in meteorology. He was elected a fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2009.
GENERAL CHARLES F. “CHUCK” WALD, UASF (Ret.) Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command
General Wald retired from the U.S. Air Force as a four star general after serving over 35 years in the U.S. military as a command pilot with more than 3,600 flying hours and 430 combat hours. In his last position, he served as deputy commander of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) from 2002 until his retirement from the U.S. Air Force in July 2006. In that role he was responsible for U.S. forces operating across 91 countries in Europe, Africa, Russia, parts of Asia, the Middle East, and most of the Atlantic Ocean. During his command, he developed the European Command Strategic Plan that included energy assurance and sustainment for the EUCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR).
General Wald commanded the 31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base, Italy, where on August 30, 1995, he led one of the wing’s initial strike packages against the ammunition depot at Pale, Bosnia-Herzegovina. From 1999 to 2001, he com- manded the 9th Air Force and U.S. Central Command Air Forces at Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina. In September 2001, as the Supporting Commander, General Wald led the development of the coalition air campaign in Operation Enduring Freedom, including the idea of embedding tactical air control parties in ground special operations forces leading to the extraction of Taliban forces in Afghanistan.
General Wald is a command pilot with more than 3,600 fying hours, including more than 430 combat hours over Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Iraq, and Bosnia. The general earned his commission through the Air Force ROTC program in 1971. He earned his Master’s Degree in International Relations from Troy University and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in pre-law from North Dakota State University. He currently serves as Vice Chairman and Federal Practice Advi- sory Partner of Deloitte.
LIEUTENANT GENERAL RICHARD C. ZILMER, USMC (Ret.) Former Deputy Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, Headquarters Marine Corps
Lieutenant General Richard Zilmer retired from Active Duty in January of 2011 following over 36 years of commis- sioned service. During his military career, Zilmer served in a variety of operational and staff assignments throughout the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. His operational commands consisted of Commanding Officer First Battalion, First Marines, Commanding Officer 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, Commanding General Mul- tinational Forces–West (Anbar Province, Iraq) and Commanding General III Marine Expeditionary Force, Okinawa, Japan. Zilmer served combat tours during Lebanon Peacekeeping Operations, Operation Desert Storm, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Zilmer’s staff assignments included multiple Washington DC tours at Headquarters Marine Corps, Deputy J-3 for Operations at the United States European Command. His final assignment was Deputy Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, Headquarters Marine Corps.
Lieutenant General Zilmer graduated with a bachelor’s degree in Secondary Education from Kutztown University in 1974 and holds a master of arts degree in National Security and Strategic Studies from the College of Naval Warfare.
36 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
37 37 www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks
Notes 1. Jerry M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe,
eds., Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment (Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014), p.15, accessed 6 May 2014 at http://ncadac.globalchange. gov/.
2. Quadrennial Defense Review 2014, accessed 5 March, 2014 at http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_Quadren- nial_Defense_Review.pdf.
3. The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, Executive Summary, accessed 2 April, 2014 at http:// www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/content-detail. html.
4. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alterna- tive Worlds (Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council, 2012), p. 30.
5. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p.1.
6. Quadrennial Defense Review 2014.
7. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p. 803.
8. Quadrennial Defense Review 2014.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Execu- tive Order 13653—Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change, November 1, 2013, http:// www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/01/execu- tive-order-preparing-united-states-impacts-climate-change.
12. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p.15.
13. Ibid., p. 629.
14. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, http://www.cli- matechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter13_ FINAL.pdf.
15. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p. 46.
16. Ibid., p. 200.
17. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Sum- mary for Policymakers, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/ uploads/IPCC_WG2AR5_SPM_Approved.pdf.
18. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change,” June 11, 2001, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/ releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html.
19. Thomas Fingar, “National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate.” State- ment for the Record, Permanent Select Committee on Intel- ligence and the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, House of Representatives, 25 June 2008, http://globalwarming.house.gov/tools/ 2q08mate- rials/files/0069.pdf.
20. Bryan Bender, “Chief of US Pacific forces calls climate biggest worry,” Boston Globe, 9 March 2013, http://www. bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral- samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that- climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/ story.html.
21. Karen Parrish, “Hagel Announces DOD’s Arctic Strategy,” American Forces Press Service. 22 Nov. 2013, http://www. defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121220.
22. Alexis Arieff, Crisis in Mali (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, January 14, 2013), http://www.fas.org/ sgp/crs/row/R42664.pdf.
23. Ibid.
24. Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia, eds., The Arab Spring and Climate Change: A Climate and Security Cor- relations Series (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, February 2013), http://climateandsecurity.files. wordpress.com/2012/04/climatechangearabspring-ccs- cap-stimson.pdf.
25. Quadrennial Defense Review 2014.
26. National Intelligence Council, Global Water Security (Wash- ington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 2, 2012), http://www.dni.gov/index.php/news- room/press-releases/96-press-releases-2012/529-odni- releases-global-water-security-ica.
27. “Admiral Locklear Discusses the Future of Asian Security,” Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, 6 March 2014, www. atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear- discusses-the-future-of-asian-security.
28. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030.
29. National Research Council, National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces. (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2011).
30. Ibid.
31. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p. 221.
32. Ibid., p. 4.
33. Center for Coastal Resources Management, Recurrent Flooding Study for Tidewater Virginia (Gloucester Point, VA: Virginia Institute of Marine Science, January 2013).
34. Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, Climate Change in Hampton Roads: Impacts and Stakeholder Involvement (Chesapeake, VA: Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, February 2010).
35. Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, eds., Climate Change Impacts, p.15.
36. Ibid.
37. Ibid., p. 379.
38. Ibid., p. 15.
39. Ibid., p. 12.
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Notes
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Ebola.pdf
INTERIM version 1.2
Ebola and Marburg virus disease
epidemics: preparedness, alert,
control, and evaluation
Geneva, Switzerland August 2014
PANDEMIC AND EPIDEMIC DISEASES
WHO/HSE/PED/CED/2014.05
INTERIM version 1.2
Ebola and Marburg virus
disease epidemics:
preparedness, alert, control,
and evaluation
Geneva, Switzerland
August 2014
© World Health Organization 2014
All rights reserved.
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Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications –whether for sale or for non-
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The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply
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All reasonable precautions have been taken by the World Health Organization to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed
without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation
and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall the World Health Organization be liable for damages arising from its use.
- 5 -
TABLE OF CONTENT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 9
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 10
1 INTRODUCTION 12
1.1 Purpose of the document and target audience 12
1.2 Background 12
2 GENERAL STRATEGY 20
2.1 Before: pre-epidemic phase 21
2.2 Alert: suspected Ebola or Marburg 21
2.3 During: epidemic phase 21
2.4 After: Post-epidemic phase 22
2.5 Use of the document 23
3 BEFORE: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IN THE PRE-EPIDEMIC PHASE? 26
3.1 Establishment of a viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) surveillance system 26 3.1.1 Stage 1. Step up routine surveillance for all viral haemorrhagic fevers 26 3.1.2 Stage 2. Implement community-based surveillance 26 3.1.3 Stage 3. Create a system for the collection, packaging, storage and shipment of specimens 26 3.1.4 Stage 4. Establish (or strengthen) epidemic management committees and rapid response teams 27
3.2 Infection control precautions in health care settings 27 3.2.1 Stage 5. Implement standard infection control precautions in health care settings 27 3.2.2 Stage 6. Stockpile personal protective equipment and other supplies needed for epidemiological investigation at the district, provincial and national levels 27
3.3 Health promotion programme 28 3.3.1 Stage 7. Improve health-related behaviours among at-risk and vulnerable groups 28
3.4 Collaboration with mine health services (Marburg) and wildlife health services (Ebola) 28 3.4.1 Stage 8. Build or strengthen collaborative links between human health services and health services in mines (Marburg) 28 3.4.2 Stage 9. Build or strengthen collaborative links between human health services and wildlife health services (Ebola) 28
3.5 Pre-alert: What should be done if the specimen taken from animals tests positive for Ebola or Marburg? 29
3.5.1 Stage 10. Notify the veterinary services and the public health authorities 29 3.5.2 Stage 11. Conduct a comprehensive awareness-raising, social mobilization campaign focusing on promoting specific risk reduction and health protection behaviours 29
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4 ALERT: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WHEN EBOLA OR MARBURG IS SUSPECTED? 32
4.1 Investigating suspected Ebola or Marburg 32 4.1.1 Stage 1. Epidemiological investigation 32 4.1.2 Stage 2. Collection and shipment of specimens 33 4.1.3 Stage 3. Continue active case-finding and follow-up of contacts 34 4.1.4 Stage 4. Evaluation of local resources and logistics requirements 34
4.2 Obtaining laboratory results 35 4.2.1 State 5. Follow-up of specimens and obtaining laboratory results 35 4.2.2 Stage 6. Interpretation of laboratory results 35
4.3 Taking a decision on the basis of laboratory results and the outcome of the investigation 35
5 DURING: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ONCE THE EPIDEMIC IS CONFIRMED? 38
5.1 Marburg and/or Ebola epidemic control strategy 38
5.2 Coordination and resource mobilization 40 5.2.1 Objective of the coordination and resource mobilization committee 40 5.2.2 Competencies of the coordination and resource mobilization committee 40 5.2.3 Main activities of the coordination and resource mobilization committee 41
5.3 Epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory testing 43 5.3.1 Objective of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory 43 5.3.2 Competencies of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory 43 5.3.3 Activities of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory 43
5.4 Behavioural and social interventions 46 5.4.1 Objective of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee 46 5.4.2 Competencies of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee 46 5.4.3 Activities of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee 47 5.4.4 Contribution of the COMBI methodology 49 5.4.5 Contribution of medical anthropology 49
5.5 Media and communication 51 5.5.1 Objective of the media and communication subcommittee 51 5.5.2 Competencies of the media and communication subcommittee 51 5.5.3 Activities of the media and communication subcommittee 52
5.6 Clinical case management 53 5.6.1 Objective of the subcommittee for clinical case management 53 5.6.2 Competencies of the subcommittee for clinical case management 53 5.6.3 Activities of the subcommittee for clinical case management 53 5.6.4 Standard precautions in health care 55 5.6.5 Organization of burials by the subcommittee for clinical case management 56
5.7 Psychosocial management 58 5.7.1 Objective of the psychosocial management subcommittee 58 5.7.2 Competencies of the psychosocial management subcommittee 58 5.7.3 Activities of the psychosocial management subcommittee 58
5.8 Research projects and ethical issues 60 5.8.1 Objective of the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues 60 5.8.2 Competencies of the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues 60 5.8.3 Activities of ethical research subcommittee 61
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5.9 Logistics and safety 64 5.9.1 Objective of the logistics and safety subcommittee 64 5.9.2 Competencies of the logistics and safety subcommittee 64 5.9.3 Activities of the logistics and safety subcommittee 64
5.10 Environmental management 66 5.10.1 Enhanced wildlife surveillance 66 5.10.2 Enhanced surveillance of mines 66 5.10.3 Veterinary surveillance of domestic pig farms 66
6 AFTER: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ONCE THE EPIDEMIC IS OVER? 70
6.1 Declare the end of the epidemic 70
6.2 Resume the activities of the pre-epidemic phase 70
6.3 Medical follow-up of survivors 70
6.4 Monitoring of recovering patients and social problems 70
6.5 Produce the end-of-epidemic report 71
6.6 Keep records on the epidemic 71
6.7 Evaluate the management of the epidemic 72
7 ANNEXES 76
Annexes on general information about Ebola and Marburg 76 Annex 1. WHO Ebola haemorrhagic fever fact-sheet 76 Annex 2. WHO Marburg haemorrhagic fever fact-sheet 76
Annexes on surveillance and epidemiology 77 Annex 3a. Standard case definition of viral hemorrhagic fever for routine surveillance 77 Annex 3b. Standard case definition of viral hemorrhagic fever for community-based surveillance 77 Annex 3c. Examples of Marburg or Ebola viral hemorrhagic fever case definitions that may be used during the outbreak. 78 Annex 4. Standard definition of Ebola or Marburg contacts 80 Annex 5. Ebola or Marburg case investigation and recording sheet 81
Laboratory-related annexes 84 Annex 6. Guidelines for the collection of clinical specimens during field investigation of outbreaks (WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/2000/4) 84 Annex 7. Guidance on regulations for the Transport of Infectious Substances 2011-2012 84 Annex 8. List of laboratories and WHO Collaborating Centres for the diagnosis of Ebola or Marburg VHF. 85
Annexes on social and behavioural interventions and communication 88 Annex 9. Outbreak Communication. Best practices for communicating with the public during an outbreak. 88 Annex 10. Communication for Behavioural Impact (COMBI): A toolkit for behavioural and social communication in outbreak response . 88 Annex 11. COMBI Toolkit: Field Workbook for COMBI planning steps in outbreak response. 88 Annex 12. Behavioural and Social interventions: a checklist for conducting a rapid situation analysis during suspect Ebola and Marburg events 89 Annex 13. Contribution of medical anthropology to Ebola and Marburg viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak control 91
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Annexes on clinical management of patients 98 Annex 14. Hospitalised patients' charter 98 Annex 15. WHO Aide-Memoire. Standard precautions in health care 98 Annex 16. WHO Fact sheet. Waste from health-care activities 98 Annex 17. Interim Infection Control Recommendations for Care of Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Filovirus (Ebola, Marburg) Haemorrhagic Fever 98 Annex 18. Transmission risk reduction of filoviruses in home-care settings 99 Annex 19. Protocol for the reintegration of returning patients into their families and their community 101
Annexes on psychosocial management 102 Annex 20. Mental health in emergencies 102 Annex 21. IASC Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial support in Emergency settings 102 Annex 22. Mental health and psychological support in emergency settings: what humanitarian actors should know 102 Annex 23. Psychological first aid: Guide for field workers 102
Annexes on research ethics 103 Annex 24. Medical Ethics Manual – World Medical Association 103 Annex 25. Research Ethics in International Epidemic Response. WHO Technical Consultation 103 Annex 26. Ethical considerations in developing a public health response to pandemic influenza 103 Annex 27. Guidance on ethics of tuberculosis prevention, care and control 103 Annex 28. Model guidelines for writing informed consent documents 103 Annex 29. Website of the interactive Health Research Web (HRWeb) platform 103 Annex 30. Training and Resources in Research Ethics Evaluation site 103 Annex 31. The Siracusa Principles on the Limitation and Derogation Provisions in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights 103
Annexes on logistics 104 Annex 32. Description of disposable, nonperishable personnel protective equipment for indoor utilization in health care facilities. Module PPE A: Basic Module of Personnel Protective Equipment 104 Annexe 33. Description of heavy-duty personnel protective equipment associated with Basic Module PPE A, for outdoor utilization during disinfection of contaminated areas, objects and cloth, and when dealing with dead bodies and burials: Module PPE B: Heavy Duty Personnel Protective Equipment 105 Annex 34. Logistics assessment form 106
Annex containing Ebola and Marburg bibliography 114 Annex 35. Ebola and Marburg bibliography, relevant videos and web sites 114
Annexes regarding the International Health Regulations (IHR) 123 Annex 36. WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) 123
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Acknowledgements This document is a result of collaboration within WHO, between the Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Programme (CSR) at WHO Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) and the Global Alert and Response (GAR) department at WHO Headquarters, with significant contributions from the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO), the WHO Regional Office for Europe (EURO), and a range of partners around the world. It was prepared on the basis of the experience gained during Ebola and Marburg outbreak control operations since 1995, following informal meetings of the editorial working group held in Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou), Gabon (Libreville), and Republic of the Congo (Brazzaville) between 2004 and 2009, with the assistance of international experts. WHO wishes to thank all those who participated in the preparation of this document for their essential contributions, namely: - Alain Epelboin, National Science Research Centre and Natural History Museum, Paris (France). - Philippe Calain, Médecins Sans Frontières, Geneva (Switzerland). - Rosa Crestani, Michel Van Herp, Médecins Sans Frontières, Brussels (Belgium). - Pierre Rollin, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta (United States of America). - Gary Kobinger, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg (Canada). - Eric Leroy, Development Research Institute and International Medical Research Centre of Franceville, Franceville (Gabon). - WHO/AFRO, DPC/CSR: Yokouidé Allarangar, Adama Berthé, Mamoudou Djingarey, Bréhima Koumaré, Denis Kandolo, Kader Kondé, Mamadou-Lamine Koné, Nestor Ndayimirije, Florimond Tshioko, Celia Woodfil, Adamou Alzouma Yada, and Ali Ahmed Yahaya. - WHO/EMRO: Martin Opoka and Hassan El Bushra Ahmed. - WHO/EURO: Guenael Rodier and Christiana Salvi. - WHO/Headquarters, IER/ETH: Marie-Charlotte Bouësseau and Andreas Reis. - WHO/Headquarters, NMH/MSD/MER: Mark Humphrey Van Ommeren. - WHO/Headquarters, HSE/GAR: Kamal Ait-Ikhlef, Jean-Christophe Azé, Eric Bertherat, Patrick Drury, Sergey Eremin, Pierre Formenty, Thomas Grein, Stéphane Hugonnet, Dominique Legros, Asiya Odugleh-Kolev, Carmen Pessoa-Silva, Cathy Roth, Michael J. Ryan, and Jordi Sacristan. We wish to thank in particular Pierre Formenty (WHO/Headquarters) and Yokouidé Allarangar (WHO/AFRO) for their vital contribution and for coordinating the final edition of the document. WHO extends its gratitude to the EuropeAid Cooperation Office of the European Commission (AIDCO) for its financial support.
This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein may in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union.
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List of abbreviations and acronyms AFRO WHO Regional Office for Africa
COMBI Communication for Behavioural Impact
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EMRO WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
EURO WHO Regional Office for Europe
EVD Ebola virus disease
IHR International Health Regulations
MVD Marburg virus disease
NFP National Focal Point
NSAID non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug
OIE World Organisation for Animal Health / Organisation mondiale de la santé animale
PPE personal protective equipment
PRRS porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome
VHF viral haemorrhagic fever
WHO World Health Organization
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Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of the document and target audience Ebola or Marburg haemorrhagic fever outbreaks constitute a major public health issue in Sub- Saharan Africa. Of the 2 870 Marburg and Ebola cases documented between June 1967 and June 2011, 270 (9%) were health-care workers. In order to provide health-care workers in risk areas with a working tool to combat Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) or Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) effectively, the WHO Regional Office for Africa (AFRO), the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO), WHO Headquarters and their partners have produced this document: Ebola and Marburg virus disease epidemics: Preparedness, alert, control and evaluation. The main target audience of this document are district-level health-care workers (doctors, nurses, and paramedics), as well as intermediate- and central-level health-care workers responsible for epidemic control, and International Health Regulations (IHR) National Focal Points (NFPs). The objective of this document is to describe preparedness, prevention, and control measures that have been implemented successfully during previous epidemics. These measures must be implemented during the following four phases:
(1) Pre-epidemic preparedness (2) Alert (identify, investigate, evaluate risks) (3) Outbreak response and containment operations (4) Post-epidemic evaluation.
1.2 Background The Marburg virus and Ebola virus genera belong to the Filoviridae family (filovirus). The Ebola virus is comprised of five distinct species: Bundibugyo, Côte d’Ivoire, Reston, Sudan, and Zaïre. There is only one Marburg virus species. The Marburg virus and Ebola Zaïre, Sudan, and Bundibugyo subtypes have been associated with large viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks characterized by high person-to-person transmission and a case fatality rate ranging from 25%–90%, whereas Côte d’Ivoire and Reston subspecies have not been associated with VHF outbreaks in humans to date. Since its discovery in 1976, EVD has mostly occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa (Annex 1). The first cases of EVD were detected in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan (1976) and EVD epidemics have since occurred in DRC (1977, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2012), Sudan (1979, 2004), Gabon (1994, 1996, 2001, 2002), Uganda (2000, 2007, 2011, 2012), Republic of the Congo (2001, 2002, 2003, 2005), Guinea (2014), Liberia (2014), Sierra Leone (2014) and Nigeria (2014, following the entry of infected traveller from Liberia) (Figure 1). In 1994, Côte d’Ivoire reported one case of Ebola Côte d’Ivoire in a laboratory technician who was infected when performing an autopsy on an infected chimpanzee. No secondary transmission occurred and the patient survived the infection. MVD also occurs in Africa (Annex 2). Beginning in 1967, the first cases of MVD were reported in Uganda. Additional reports of isolated cases and MVD epidemics have been reported in Zimbabwe (1975), Kenya (1980, 1987), DRC (1994, 1998-2000), Angola (2005), and Uganda (2007). South Africa reported Marburg epidemics (1975) and Ebola epidemics (1996) following the entry of infected patients from Zimbabwe and Gabon, respectively. Outside Africa, in 1967, the importation of infected green monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops) from Uganda resulted in MVD outbreaks in Germany and Yugoslavia, causing 32 fatalities. In 2008, the Netherlands and the United States of America (USA)
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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reported one case of imported Marburg each. The two patients – tourists – had visited a cave in the forest of Maramagambo in south-eastern Uganda. Figure 1. Geographical distribution of Ebola and Marburg outbreaks in Africa (1967-2014)
Transmission In Africa, fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae are considered natural hosts of filoviruses – the viruses that cause Marburg and Ebola viruses. Fruit bats belonging to the genus Rousettus are considered potential hosts of the Marburg virus, and bats belonging to the genera Hypsignathus, Epomops, and Myonycteris are considered possible hosts of the Ebola virus. However, Ebola and Marburg have also been found in other bat species. The geographic distribution of Ebola and Marburg viruses probably corresponds to that of fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae. Consequently, Ebola and Marburg viruses are considered endemic throughout Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 1).
In Africa, the infection of human cases with Ebola virus disease has occurred through the handling of infected chimpanzees, gorillas, monkeys, bats of the species Hypsignathus and Epomops, forest antelopes, and porcupines (Figure 2). Most primary (index) cases (cases) of Marburg infection occurred following an extended stay in or near mines or caves inhabited by bats of the Rousettus species.
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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Figure 2. Hypothesis of Ebola virus transmission at the human-animal interface
Figure 3. Hypothesis of Marburg virus transmission at the human-animal interface
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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Person-to-person transmission of Ebola and Marburg virus occurs through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs, or other body fluids of infected persons, putting health-care workers and the community at risk. Burial ceremonies in which relatives and friends have direct contact with the body of the deceased person also play a significant role in the transmission of the virus. Health-care workers have been infected while treating Ebola and Marburg patients, through close contact without correct infection control precautions and inadequate barrier nursing procedures. To date, approximately 9% of Ebola or Marburg victims have been health-care workers. During EVD and MVD outbreaks, only strict compliance with biosafety guidelines (i.e. appropriate laboratory practices, infection control precautions, barrier nursing procedures, use of personal protective equipment by health-care workers handling patients, disinfection of contaminated objects and areas, safe burials, etc.) can prevent the epidemic from spreading and reduce the number of victims. In order to control outbreaks effectively, it is important to develop comprehensive social mobilization campaigns that include feasible, culturally-appropriate, and technically sound interventions for the affected populations. These sensitive and essential measures identify behaviours that may put people at risk and are crucial in supporting the adoption of practices that can help prevent infection or reduce transmission within the community. During outbreaks, social mobilization programmes help affected populations understand and comply with control measures, which may seem to patients and family members to be austere, such as isolating sick people. Severely ill patients must be given symptomatic treatment and intensive care. There is no specific treatment or vaccine for either Ebola or Marburg. Several candidate vaccines are being developed, but it will be several years until they are available for utilization by outbreak response teams working in the field. Similarly, several candidate drugs show promise but their safety and efficacy in humans is not yet known.
Filoviruses are highly infectious agents and certain precautions must be applied when handling them. Laboratory tests on the active virus – experimental inoculation of animals, cell cultures or specimen – present an extreme biohazard risk and WHO recommends that such tests be conducted in biosafety level 4 (BSL4; highly infectious/maximum containment) laboratories only. Conversely, the laboratory may conduct tests on inactivated specimens (virucides, gamma rays, formaldehyde, heat, etc.) in order to confirm the diagnosis through detection of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies.
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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Box 1. The need to take into account pig farms
In 2008-09, the Ebola Reston virus was isolated in pigs in the Philippines following an outbreak of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS). At the same time, experimental inoculation
of laboratory animals showed that pigs are susceptible to infection with the Ebola Zaïre virus, which can reproduce and spread among them. Pig farms in outbreak areas must thus be considered potential sites of virus amplification and the attendant risk must be managed. In order to reduce the risk of Ebola or Marburg virus amplification in pigs, public and animal health authorities should: - conduct a risk assessment to determine if there are pig farms within proximity to the outbreak; - implement control measures to prevent pig-to-human transmission, including strengthening the food production system; - contain confirmed Ebola infection in pig populations; - apply appropriate biosafety measures in order to prevent bats from introducing the Ebola virus into pig populations. See Section 5.10.3 for additional information.
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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Chapter 1 – INTRODUCTION - Key messages
Human-to-human Ebola and Marburg transmission occurs through blood, body fluids, and contaminated objects.
Strict compliance with biosafety guidelines is required to prevent epidemic spread and reduce the number of victims.
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
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Chapter 2. GENERAL STRATEGY
CHAPTER 2 – GENERAL STRATEGY
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2 General strategy Ebola and Marburg viruses infect fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family; prevalence (percentage of animals carrying the virus) varies with the season and the composition of the populations (proportion of non-immune young animals susceptible to contamination by adults with chronic infections) (Figure 4). In the tropical forest, fruit bats carrying the virus enter in direct or indirect contact with other animals and pass on the infection, sometimes causing large-scale epidemics in chimpanzees, gorillas, and other primates (Figure 4). The Ebola virus may be transmitted to humans either through direct contact with infected bats or through handling infected chimpanzees, gorillas, monkeys, forest antelopes, and porcupines found sick or dead in the forest. The Marburg virus may be transmitted to humans during extended stays in caves or mines inhabited by large colonies of fruit bats. Figure 4. Ebola: Epidemic curves in humans and animals at the human-animal interface
The circulation of the Ebola and Marburg viruses among bats and monkeys precedes human outbreaks. Therefore, the strategy for prevention and control of epidemics comprises the following four phases:
(1) Pre-epidemic preparedness (2) Alert (detect, investigate, evaluate risks) (3) Outbreak response and containment operations (4) Post-epidemic evaluation.
CHAPTER 2 – GENERAL STRATEGY
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2.1 Before: pre-epidemic phase During the pre-epidemic phase, the public health services must set up a surveillance system to identify viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) cases. However, surveillance for human cases of suspected VHF is not enough. Animal outbreaks of Ebola usually precede human cases, but they are not always detected. Collaboration with wildlife mortality surveillance systems is thus essential to the rapid alert of public health authorities. The strategy uses animal mortality surveillance as an early warning system to trigger the implementation of a prevention programme aimed at reducing the risk of human outbreaks. Also during the pre-epidemic phase, standard infection control precautions must be reinforced in all health-care settings. These measures reduce the risk of pathogen transmission from known or unknown sources. Standard precautions are the minimum level of infection control required in the treatment and care of all patients in order to avoid direct contact with blood and/or body fluids. These are applicable to Marburg and Ebola and other blood- or body fluid-borne infectious diseases (such as AIDS, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C) during patient care.
The pre-epidemic phase should also be used to prepare the public on potential risk behaviours for Ebola and Marburg virus disease and promote standard infection prevention and control precautions e.g. hand washing. Subject to the availability of funds, health authorities can conduct health education activities targeting relevant groups within the community such as hunters, community health-care workers, traditional healers, caregivers, etc.
2.2 Alert: suspected Ebola or Marburg If the surveillance system reports suspected Ebola or Marburg cases, a team must be sent to the site immediately – equipped with the necessary personal protective equipment – to investigate the rumour, evaluate the risk of an outbreak, collect specimens and send them to a national reference laboratory, and implement initial control measures until the laboratory results are received.
2.3 During: epidemic phase Once the Ebola or Marburg outbreak is confirmed, response teams must implement a multisectoral outbreak control strategy involving:
(a) Coordination of prevention and control activities and resource mobilization
(b) Creation of a surveillance system for active Ebola or Marburg case finding, surveillance of contacts for a period of 21 days after their last known exposure, and referral to the isolation ward if they become ill
(c) Promotion of a social and behavioural interventions programme aimed at informing the public and promoting the adoption of practices for reducing community transmission
(d) Clinical management of Ebola and Marburg patients in the affected area, observing the following five rules:
Respect for the dignity and rights of the patients and their family
Establishment of an isolation area and implementation of barrier nursing precautions
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Organization of safe transport of the patient from their home to the ward
Performance of safe burials, respecting funeral customs and rites
Appropriate psychosocial support for health-care workers, patients, their families, and their communities
(e) Adopt or strengthen infection control precautions in the affected area and beyond.
2.4 After: Post-epidemic phase Once the epidemic is over, resume surveillance activities to the pre-epidemic phase. Use the official announcement at the end of the epidemic to thank stakeholders and partners and to extend solidarity and compassion to the affected populations. Remember to conduct an evaluation of the outbreak management and to produce an end-of-epidemic report. All records of the outbreak, which may serve as reference documents for countries and the international community, must be kept. Figure 5 illustrates the four main phases of the recommended intervention strategy. Figure 5. Strategy for the prevention and control of Ebola or Marburg epidemics
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2.5 Use of the document
This document is not intended to be a prescriptive methodology. It is designed to facilitate action planning at the district level by describing a series of recommended activities for each of the following phases (Figure 6):
(1) Pre-epidemic preparedness (2) Alert (detection, investigation, risk evaluation) (3) Outbreak response and containment operations (4) Post-epidemic evaluation.
Figure 6. Ebola and Marburg outbreaks: Preparedness, alert, control and evaluation
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Chapter 2 – GENERAL STRATEGY - Key messages
This document is designed to facilitate the planning of prevention and control activities at the district level for each of the following phases: 1) pre-epidemic preparedness; 2) alert (detection, investigation, and risk assessment); 3) outbreak response and containment operations; 4) post-epidemic evaluation.
A multidisciplinary coordinated approach is required to prevent and
control the disease.
Chapter 3. BEFORE: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IN THE PRE-EPIDEMIC PHASE?
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3 Before: What should be done in the pre-epidemic phase?
3.1 Establishment of a viral haemorrhagic fever surveillance system
3.1.1 Stage 1. Step up routine surveillance for all viral haemorrhagic fevers
Obtain provincial or national standard case definitions as set forth in the Technical Guidelines for Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDS) (Annex 3A).
Disseminate case definitions in health-care facilities.
Use the standard case definition for routine surveillance.
Systematically search for possible suspected viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) cases during supervisory visits.
Immediately report any case that fits the case definition.
Train/retrain staff in VHF surveillance.
Raise the awareness among district health-care workers of surveillance capacity requirements as described in the International Health Regulations (Annex 34).
3.1.2 Stage 2. Implement community-based surveillance
Explain and make known the early warning system in the community.
Identify resource persons (community health-care workers, Red Cross volunteers, religious leaders, traditional midwives, traditional healers, village chiefs, etc.) and train them in community-based surveillance.
Organize regular health promotion activities in communities, especially those in risk areas and those engaged in risk activities (hunters, mineworkers, et. al).
Disseminate simplified case definitions for community use.
Engage resource persons to report any suspicion or rumour to health-care facilities or health-care workers and apply basic hygiene practices.
Provide feedback to resource persons about the status of reported rumours.
3.1.3 Stage 3. Create a system for the collection, packaging, storage, and shipment of
specimens
Make sure sample collection materials and personal protective equipment (PPE) are available in the at-risk districts.
Be aware of and apply the guidelines for the collection, packaging, storage, and shipment of specimens collected from suspected VHF cases (Annex 6).
Make sure adequate boxes and receptacles are available for triple packaging of specimens collected from suspected VHF cases (Annex 7).
Make sure the exact address for the national reference laboratory/ies is available.
Be aware of the shipping routes for specimens to national reference laboratories.
Collaborate with the national reference laboratory/ies.
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Please note: the national reference laboratory is responsible for forwarding specimens to international laboratories that are WHO collaborating centres for Ebola or Marburg virus disease (Annex 8).
3.1.4 Stage 4. Establish/strengthen epidemic management committees and rapid response teams
Develop or revise the competencies of epidemic management committees and rapid response teams.
Appoint members of the epidemic management committees and rapid response teams
Make sure epidemic management committees and rapid response teams are multisectoral in nature.
Ensure the epidemic management committees and rapid response teams are functioning.
Hold regular meetings to review the epidemiological situation and take stock of medicines, equipment, and other supplies needed.
3.2 Infection control precautions in health-care settings
3.2.1 Stage 5. Implement standard infection control precautions in health-care settings
Disseminate the aide memoire on standard precautions in health-care facilities (Annex 13).
Train health-care workers on standard infection control precautions in health-care facilities.
Post copies of standard infection control precautions in health-care facilities.
Implement standard infection control precautions in health-care facilities.
Make sure that basic hospital-acquired infection control materials (gloves, masks, gowns) and hygiene supplies (soap, alcohol, etc.) are available in health-care facilities.
Implement the fact sheet on safe management of waste from health-care activities (Annex 14).
3.2.2 Stage 6. Stockpile personal protective equipment and other supplies needed for
epidemiological investigation at the district, provincial, and national levels
Build, manage, and maintain, in proper storage conditions, a minimum supply of PPEs, disinfectants, and other materials needed to apply standard infection control precautions equivalent to three module A (Annex 30) and one module B (Annex 31) of the PPE Kit in the WHO catalogue.
Build, manage, and maintain, in proper storage conditions, a minimum supply of sample collection and shipment material.
Update the list of cold chain facilities, the waste management system, the telecommunications network, and available vehicles in working order in the district health units. Consider repairing defective equipment.
Keep a backup supply of fuel.
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3.3 Health promotion programme
3.3.1 Stage 7. Improve health-related behaviours among at-risk and vulnerable groups
Promote and strengthen standard infection prevention and control practices within the community; e.g. hand washing, food safety, etc.
Collaborate with surveillance teams to promote early detection and reporting among at-risk and vulnerable groups.
Work with the national/provisional authorities to identify risk groups and risk behaviour(s) and encourage the adoption of risk reduction practices that prevent infection or reduce community transmission. Adapt them to the local context.
Develop and disseminate health promotion material as part of a health promotion strategy that targets specific risk reduction actions.
Raise public awareness of Ebola and Marburg virus disease, especially among risk groups such as hunters, miners, traditional midwives and healers, religious communities, health-care workers, opinion makers, etc.
3.4 Collaborate with mine health services (Marburg) and wildlife health services (Ebola)
3.4.1 Stage 8. Build or strengthen collaborative links between human health services and health services in mines (Marburg)
Establish a framework for collaboration.
Hold regular on-site meetings with mine surveillance officers.
Inform miners about Marburg disease, risk behaviours, and individual infection control measures.
Conduct surveillance of illness in miners in risk areas to facilitate detection of the introduction of the Marburg virus.
If mine health services report an outbreak among miners or suspected VHF cases, the local health authorities must be on alert and assist them in their investigations (i.e. epidemiological surveying, sample collection, shipment of specimens to the national reference laboratory, etc.).
3.4.2 Stage 9. Build or strengthen collaborative links between human health services and
wildlife health services (Ebola)
Establish a framework for collaboration between sectors.
Hold regular on-site meetings with wildlife surveillance officers.
Inform water and forest officers and hunters about Ebola disease, risk behaviour, and individual infection control measures.
Conduct surveillance to facilitate detection of the introduction of EVD and illness among hunters in risk areas.
Ask wildlife officers in national parks and reserves to strengthen surveillance for causes of wild animal mortality (especially in gorillas, chimpanzees, and monkeys).
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3.5 Pre-alert: What should be done if the specimen taken from animals tests positive for Ebola or Marburg?
3.5.1 Stage 10. Notify veterinary services and public health authorities
If the specimen taken from animals tests positive for Ebola or Marburg, both the veterinary services and the public health authorities must be notified immediately.
3.5.2 Stage 11. Conduct a comprehensive awareness-raising, social mobilization campaign focusing on promoting specific risk reduction and health protection behaviours
As soon as the alert about confirmed animal cases is issued, the Ministry of Health should organize its response teams.
The response teams should prepare an awareness-raising and behaviourally-focused social mobilization campaign to prevent introduction of the virus into the human population and its spread.
The prevention campaign should: - inform the public about the disease, risk behaviours, and individual and community infection control measures; - launch a comprehensive social mobilization campaign to promote infection control practices; and - strengthen basic infection control precautions in health-care settings.
3.5.3 Stage 12. Response team
Response teams must: - step up surveillance; - strengthen diagnostic capacities for Ebola and Marburg; and - strengthen collaboration between human and animal health services.
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Chapter 4. ALERT: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WHEN EBOLA OR MARBURG IS SUSPECTED?
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4 Alert: What should be done when Ebola or Marburg is suspected? When the surveillance system detects suspected human cases of viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF), a team should be sent to the site without delay to investigate, confirm, or discard the rumour and take initial control measures as required.
4.1 Investigating suspected Ebola or Marburg
4.1.1 Stage 1. Epidemiological investigation
1. Mobilize the members of the national rapid response team. This is a multidisciplinary team, which should include an epidemiologist, a clinician, a laboratory specialist, a logistics coordinator, and other necessary experts (infection control expert, anthropologist, social mobilization specialist, geographer, veterinarian, etc.) 2. Define the competencies of each member of the investigation team. A definition of tasks to be accomplished by each team member gives them a precise idea of what needs to be done once in the field and what each of them needs to accomplish during their specific mission. 3. Collect investigation equipment (personal protective equipment (PPE), sampling devices, equipment for the shipment of specimens, investigation forms, case definition, disease/s fact sheets). Use a checklist of materials and equipment needed in the field. Forgetting essential materials or equipment can be detrimental to the investigation. 4. Notify the district authorities about the suspected outbreak. Request their authorization and their support for conducting the outbreak investigation. 5. Notify and meet the local authorities and obtain their support. The support of the local authorities in the affected area where the investigation will be conducted is very important. Local authorities should participate in the investigation, for example by sending a local representative to join the team. 6. Organize a field trip. Make sure appropriate means of transport are available. Sufficient quantities of fuel, oil, and other mechanical lubricants must be supplied. The subsistence of members of the investigation team must be taken into account (accommodation, drinking water, food, per diem, etc.) 7. Investigate suspected Ebola or Marburg cases. Collect information from community members, opinion makers, local authorities, health-care personnel, et al.
Confirm the outbreak.
Adopt a case definition to use in the local context and create a list/register of all of the cases.
Fill in an investigation form for each registered case (Annex 4).
After having provided accurate and clear information to the patient about the disease (including explaining why collecting a blood sample is important) and obtaining their express and/or informed consent, collect blood samples from each case for subsequent diagnostic laboratory confirmation.
Interact appropriately with local communities, respecting social and cultural customs and hierarchies.
Obtain critical behavioural, sociocultural, economic, and political information that could either help or hinder continued outbreak investigation activities and implementation of initial control measures (Annex 11).
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Analyse and interpret the information received during the investigation. Analyse the data in terms of time, place, and persons. Describe the routes of transmission over the course of the event. Determine populations who may be at risk of contracting the disease. Identify the possible source of the outbreak. Compare the results of the epidemiological analysis with the known facts.
Prepare a written report. 8. Evaluate the risk of an Ebola or Marburg outbreak. The team must formulate diagnostic hypotheses to guide the laboratory tests. Hypotheses are needed for: the source of the infection; the cause of the outbreak; routes of transmission; and populations at risk. These hypotheses will be compared with the known facts about Ebola or Marburg. Pay attention to social and cultural practices and events that could transmit or amplify infection that may need specific considerations and interventions; e.g. gatherings such as funerals, mourning rites, etc. In view of the clinical, epidemiological, and sociocultural evidence, the investigation team should evaluate the risk of an Ebola or Marburg epidemic; i.e. confirm a strong suspicion of Ebola or Marburg or discard it. 9. Implement initial control measures. If the risk of an Ebola or Marburg epidemic is confirmed – even prior to laboratory confirmation – the team should propose the immediate implementation of a multisectoral outbreak control strategy and take initial infection prevention and control measures to protect caregivers, patients, and their families. See paragraph 5.1 on the implementation of control strategies. Identify potential barriers to compliance that will need immediate consideration, such as existing treatment-seeking behaviour and engagement with traditional healers to refer suspect cases. 10. Notify WHO of the suspected Ebola or Marburg outbreak and the deployment of an investigation team. The team should provide WHO with regular updates on the situation and indicate, in particular, whether support from a larger team may be required in future.
4.1.2 Stage 2. Collection and shipment of specimens
1. Inform the national reference laboratory of the imminent shipment of specimens so that the necessary arrangements can be made for receiving the specimens. This laboratory may need to forward the specimens to a WHO Collaboration Centre (WHO CC) laboratory equipped to diagnose VHF diseases. In the case of outbreaks of EVD or MVD, the WHO CC laboratory should be contacted as soon as possible. 2. Wear PPE correctly to avoid any risk of contamination when taking specimens. Collect the required specimens in accordance with the procedures described in the guidelines (Annex 6). 3. Store and package the specimens as described in the safety instructions (Annex 7). 4. Contact the national reference laboratory again when the specimens are ready for shipping to make sure it is ready to receive them. Double-check with the laboratory that the address and shipping route are correct. 5. Send the specimens to the national reference laboratory. The specimens must be packaged using triple packaging requirements (Annex 7). Relevant clinical and epidemiological information must be attached to the laboratory request form enclosed with the specimens. 6. 24 hours after shipment, verify the arrival of the specimens at the national reference laboratory.
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7. Upon receipt of the specimens, the national reference laboratory must inform the medical team and the authorities from the district, which sent the sample.
4.1.3 Stage 3. Continue active case-finding and follow-up of contacts
If there is a strong suspicion of an Ebola or Marburg outbreak based on the outcome of the clinical studies and the epidemiological investigation (even though laboratory diagnosis has not yet occurred), the investigation team should actively search for cases and follow up contacts.
→ For each suspected, probable, or confirmed case identified, the investigation team must draw up a list of contacts using the definition of “contact person” (Annex 5).
Note: If necessary, the initial case definition may be reviewed on the basis of the diagnostic hypotheses formulated by the investigation team and the clinical and epidemiological data collected.
4.1.4 Stage 4. Evaluation of local resources and logistics requirements
If the investigation team confirms a strong suspicion of an Ebola or Marburg outbreak and considers that deployment of a larger team will be necessary,
→ then it needs to evaluate local resources and assess logistics requirements (Annex 32).
1. Evaluate existing logistical resources within the community and draw up a list of missing items, which may include and may not be limited to: means of road and river transport, animal-drawn transport, fuel availability, etc.
2. Verify that there are available stocks of equipment (personal protective equipment (PPE),
disinfectants, materials for taking and shipping specimens, medicines, and other) and sterilizing equipment within the community and the district.
3. Assess means and routes of communication and note their GPS coordinates (roads, bridges,
radio, telephone, landing runways, office supplies, etc.) 4. Gather maps of the affected area either from locally available sources or from relevant
government agencies. 5. Assess locally available accommodation, water, electricity, and food for the response teams. 6. Assess local human resources (health-care workers, community health-care workers, Red Cross
volunteers, NGOs, external technical support consultants operating in the affected area, et al.) 7. Undertake an initial financial needs assessment of local costs incurred by the response to the
epidemic. 8. Visit and assess all health-care settings in the affected area (number of beds, crematorium, cold
chain, access to water, electricity, space for setting up an isolation area, storage space) and identify possible modifications to be undertaken. Also, assess health-care seeking behaviour, such as traditional healers and home caregivers.
9. Identify any socio-cultural contexts that may complicate the investigation and response.
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10. Evaluate the security situation in the affected area and verify the security phase in operation in
the area and the country. The security situation must be re-evaluated regularly.
4.2 Obtaining laboratory results
4.2.1 State 5. Follow-up of specimens and obtaining laboratory results
If the national reference laboratory is unable to analyse the specimens, they must be sent immediately to a WHO CC for VHF (Annex 8). The laboratory must contact the WHO CC to obtain its agreement, send the specimens in accordance with the international regulations, confirm their receipt, and obtain results rapidly. The investigation team must contact the National Reference Laboratory to obtain the results, or the WHO CC for VHF where the specimens were sent. Test results may initially be obtained by telephone to avoid any delay. Copies of the original documents may be sent afterwards by post, courier, fax, or e-mail. On receipt, the results must be communicated to the district clinicians and the local and district authorities. The local health authorities are duty-bound to inform patients of the laboratory results. If communication with the patient is not possible, or if the patient is underage, the information shall be communicated to his/her relatives or legal guardians.
4.2.2 Stage 6. Interpretation of laboratory results
A case is positive or confirmed when the laboratory has demonstrated a recent
infection with Ebola or Marburg virus using one of the following techniques:
- antigen detection using the ELISA test;
- detection of IgM antibodies directed against Marburg or Ebola;
- seroconversion or increasing IgG antibody titres in two subsequent specimens
collected within a week of each other;
- detection of virus RNA by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT- PCR)
and sequencing;
- detection by immunohistochemical (IHC) staining of the patients’ tissue or blood; or
- viral isolation.
4.3 Taking a decision on the basis of laboratory results and the outcome of the investigation
Once the investigation team receives the laboratory results, there are three possible scenarios:
1. The results are positive for Ebola or Marburg, therefore the epidemic is confirmed. Implement response strategies (see Chapter 5). Notify WHO of the Ebola or Marburg epidemic through communication with the country office or the regional office.
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2. The results are negative for Ebola or Marburg, but the laboratory has found a different etiology.
Follow standard procedures for preventing and combating the disease.
3. The results are negative for Ebola or Marburg virus and no other etiology has been found.
When the suspicion of Ebola or Marburg is very strong: Pursue the investigation further and send new specimens for laboratory analysis. When the suspicion of Ebola or Marburg is very weak: Reassess the situation and consider other possible aetiologies.
Chapter 5. DURING: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ONCE THE EPIDEMIC IS CONFIRMED?
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5 During: What should be done once the epidemic is confirmed?
5.1 Marburg and/or Ebola epidemic control strategy If the Ebola or Marburg epidemic is confirmed:
- Notify the local, regional, and national authorities immediately; - Notify the partners (especially those at the local level); and - Notify WHO of the outbreak.
As soon as the epidemic is confirmed, a multisectoral Marburg and/or Ebola epidemic control strategy must be implemented and should be comprised of the following strategic objectives: 1. Establishment of a committee tasked with coordinating epidemic prevention and control
activities and mobilizing resources. The committee is responsible for the overall coordination of operations. It should define the responsibilities of the different teams and information loops for outbreak response operations.
2. Collaborating and working with the media. 3. Setting up of a surveillance system to interrupt transmission routes, including:
a. Active case-finding and referral to the care unit. b. Follow-up of all contact persons over a period of 21 days after the last exposure and referral
to a care unit if they become ill. c. Monitoring of viral persistence in recovering patients (sperm). d. Identification of source(s) of infection (liaison with animal surveillance) and the adoption of
strategies to prevent renewed introduction of the virus into the human population (liaison with social mobilization).
4. Establishment of a social mobilization and health education programme to listen to and address
public concerns and to promote the rapid adoption of risk reduction and protective actions that reduce community transmission.
5. In the areas affected by the outbreak, ensure that Ebola and Marburg patients are treated in
safety and dignity by respecting the following rules: a. Create a separate care unit to guarantee proper biosafety procedures and to protect
patients’ privacy. b. Implement barrier nursing guidelines. c. Respect the dignity and rights of patients and their families, especially their right to
information and confidentiality. d. Organize the safe transport of patients from their homes to the hospital/care ward. e. Obtain express consent from patients to any hospitalization. If a patient refuses
hospitalization, make arrangements for temporary home care to be provided by the patient’s family. Provide the family with PPE and train them in how to properly put on, take off, and dispose of the equipment.
f. Conduct safe burials, respecting funeral ceremonies, to help families with the grieving process.
g. Offer psychosocial assistance to patients, families, and health-care workers.
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6. Beyond the source of the outbreak, strengthen basic infection-control precautions in all health centres in the district affected and in all catchment hospitals in order to prevent the emergence of secondary sources of infection.
7. Links with animal health:
a. Monitor the causes of wildlife mortality. b. Analyse specimens and alert the public health authorities. c. Supervise slaughtering/butchering of wild animals at home and at the market.
8. Pursuant to the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR 2005), the Ministry of Health must
notify WHO of the event. 9. Pursuant to the IHR (2005), WHO must:
a. Notify Member States and the international community. b. Assess the global health risk. c. If the global health risk is high, issue recommendations regarding international travel and
trade.
Box 1. Coercive measures and fundamental rights of persons During Ebola and Marburg outbreaks, the systematic use of the following measures should be avoided, as they have proven ineffective, expensive, and counterproductive:
Restrictions on the freedom of movement of persons and goods between countries or different regions of a country.
The setting up of sanitary barriers around homes or at the border. Such measures divert resources and hamper the development of a spirit of cooperation between institutions and countries. Recourse to these coercive measures should only be taken after the health authorities have undertaken an in-depth evaluation of the situation and of the risk/benefit ratio of each measure (proportionality of measures). The fundamental rights of persons warrant particular attention (see Siracusa Principles, Annex 29).
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5.2 Coordination and resource mobilization
5.2.1 Objective of the coordination and resource mobilization committee The main objective of the coordination and resource mobilization committee is to ensure the overall coordination of operations. The coordination and resource mobilization committee should be comprised of a variety of partners who will undertake control activities, e.g.: - Ministry of Health, Family Planning and Social Welfare (chair) - Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, - Ministry of Defence (health services of the armed forces), - National reference laboratory, which is often under the remit of the research ministry - International partners, including, but not limited to: WHO, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), US CDC, UNICEF, USAID, FAO, OIE, Red Cross/Red Crescent, etc. The national coordination and resource mobilization committee must draw up a list of all technical partners and donors participating in the management of the epidemic and keep them abreast of developments in the epidemiological situation and outbreak management. In some countries, the committee may be attached to the national office for disaster risk management.
5.2.2 Competencies of the coordination and resource mobilization committee The role and responsibilities of the national coordination and resource mobilization committee in coordinating outbreak control activities are described in Box 2. Box 2: Responsibilities and tasks for the coordination and resource mobilization committee
The coordination and resource mobilization committee is responsible for the following tasks: 1. Adopt Ebola and Marburg epidemic control strategies as recommended by WHO (see paragraph 5.1). 2. Formulate a detailed outbreak response action plan. 3. Define the responsibilities of the different teams (national and international) present in the field. 4. Arrange for resource mobilization, together with partners. 5. Define information pathways for outbreak response activities. 6. Communicate regularly with the national and international press. 7. At the local level and with help from international partners, set up an international technical and scientific committee to coordinate epidemic control measures that will be responsible for organizing the daily activities of field teams. 8. Convene meetings to coordinate and monitor operations.
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9. Keep the national authorities abreast of developments in outbreak control activities. 10. Arrange for coordination with the authorities in charge of wildlife health surveillance (national parks, veterinary service, etc.). 11. Arrange for coordination with mine administration authorities if, for example, any Marburg cases are reported among miners. 12. Ensure regular field-staff turnover. 13. Avoid the implementation of restrictive measures in accordance with the IHR (2005). 14. Produce an end-of-epidemic report. This technical, administrative, financial, and logistical report should evaluate the economic and social impact of the epidemic and its management and sets forth recommendations to facilitate the management of subsequent epidemics.
5.2.3 Main activities of the coordination and resource mobilization committee
Ebola and Marburg outbreak control strategies are based on robust Ministry of Health leadership reflected, for example, in the establishment (or strengthening) of a national committee to coordinate control activities and mobilize resources. WHO must coordinate international teams (MSF, Red Cross, GOARN, US CDC, UNICEF, etc.) and serve as a focal point for national and international teams. The national coordination and resource mobilization committee is normally based in the country’s capital and reports directly to the Ministry of Health. The national committee, with the assistance of international partners, must set up a local coordination committee to coordinate the daily activities of response teams in the field. The structure of the local committee(s) is the same as that of the national committee: it holds daily coordination meetings with the representatives of partners working in the field; coordinates technical and scientific aspects of response operations for national and international teams; and oversees the proper implementation of strategies adopted by the national coordination committee. Please note: in certain situations, the coordination and resource mobilization committee and the local coordination committee are one and the same institution, reporting directly to the Ministry of Health. The local coordination committee is split into several subcommittees in line with the fundamental principles of the Ebola or Marburg outbreak control strategy. There are at least seven:
Subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory testing
Subcommittee on behavioural and social interventions
Subcommittee on media and communications/social mobilization
Subcommittee on the clinical management of patients
Subcommittee on research projects and ethical aspects
Subcommittee on logistics and safety
Subcommittee on vector control and natural reservoirs
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Subcommittee on psychosocial support Figure 7 illustrates the multidisciplinary strategy of the various subcommittees used in Ebola or Marburg viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreak control activities. Figure 7. Organizational structure of the different committees involved in Ebola or Marburg virus disease outbreak control activities
Generally, the subcommittees on logistics and safety and on media and communications/social mobilization report directly to the coordination and resource mobilization committee.
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5.3 Epidemiological investigation, surveillance and laboratory testing
5.3.1 Objective of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing
The main objective of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing is to interrupt routes of transmission.
5.3.2 Competencies of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing
The subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing is responsible for developing an action plan together with the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture/Livestock, the Ministry of the Environment/Natural Resources (in charge of wildlife), the military health services of the Ministry of Defence, and national and international partners. This subcommittee is tasked with undertaking studies on the epidemiological situation in human and animal populations affected by the Ebola or Marburg outbreak. It must:
Set up and train mobile epidemiological surveillance teams and ensure that the training of the team includes essential communication skills and in-depth knowledge about the disease and prevention measures.
Adopt a case definition adapted to the local context of the epidemic.
Actively search for cases and investigate each reported case.
For each suspected, probable, or confirmed case, draw up a list of contacts and monitor them over a period of 21 days.
Publish daily epidemiological information in the form of a situation report.
After consultation with the national reference laboratory and partners, deploy a mobile field laboratory, if required.
Link up and coordinate human and wildlife epidemic surveillance.
Collect the technical data that is necessary to declare the end of the epidemic.
5.3.3 Activities of the subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing
5.3.3.1. Creating and training mobile teams: The first priority should be focused on creating, training, and deploying mobile epidemiological surveillance teams. 5.3.3.2. Adoption of a case and contact definition: A case and contact definition must be adopted and then adapted to the local context of the epidemic (Annex 3C). The case and contact definition must be functional should be adapted according to the clinical and epidemiological evidence collected. 5.3.3.3. Active case-finding: After adopting a case and contact definition in accordance with the local epidemiological context, arrangements must be made for active case-finding and each reported case must be investigated. (See Box 3.)
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1. Active case-finding in health-care settings, including a review of consultation records and
interviews with health-care workers, using the case definition (Annex 3c) must be undertaken.
2. Search for cases in the community by talking to local leaders and interviewing families and other
key informants.
3. Fill in a standard investigation form for each case investigated (Annex 4).
4. After providing accurate and clear information to the patient, obtaining their express and/or
informed consent, and provided biosafety conditions are met, collect biological specimens
(blood, saliva, etc.) from each case being investigated.
5. Refer suspected and probable cases discovered in the community to the isolation ward for
treatment by the clinical case management team.
6. Establish epidemiological links between cases and describe routes of transmission.
7. Record cases, deaths, and contacts. Generate a detailed database of reported cases and contacts.
8. Organize the most important case data in the form of a list, pending the creation of a digital
database. Update the list of cases daily.
9. As part of contact tracking, collect the following information for each contact: name, address,
relationship with the patient, date of last contact, type of contact. Enter this information into the
database for cases and contacts. (See Section 5.3.3.4 and Box Y.)
5.3.3.4. Follow-up of contacts: After having identified and categorized the case, draw up a list of contacts for each suspected, probable, or confirmed case and monitor them over a period of 21 days. (See Box 4.) Box 4: Activities required for contact tracing
1. Draw up a list of contacts for each detected case, using the definition of contact person (Annex 5)
2. Record contacts in the database under “case contacts”
3. Monitor all contacts over a period of 21 days after their latest exposure:
- Conduct a clinical evaluation of contacts if they become ill during that 21-day period
(epidemiological and clinical evaluation in order to classify the case using the case definition)
- Refer contacts identified as suspected or probable cases to the isolation ward.
The team is responsible for the daily publication of epidemiological information in the form of a situation report.
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5.3.3.5. Deployment of a mobile field laboratory Box 5: Activities required for deploying a mobile field laboratory
1. Following consultation with the national reference laboratory and partners, a team will evaluate
options for deploying a mobile field laboratory based on the following criteria:
- number of suspected cases detected per day;
- number of contacts followed up per day;
- need for testing for differential diagnosis (e.g. concurrent Ebola and Shigella epidemics);
- availability of national laboratory resources;
- availability of (a) mobile laboratory/ies and human resources at the regional or international
levels; and
- cost incurred by deployment of (a) mobile laboratory/ies.
2. If it is found to be necessary, set up a mobile field laboratory for the quick and differential
diagnosis of Ebola and Marburg; this mobile laboratory will assist with the triage and
management of patients, especially during large-scale outbreaks.
3. Set up a mobile medical laboratory to monitor patients’ biochemical, haematological, and
immunological parameters in order to improve case management.
4. Encourage the collection of blood specimens (inactivated serum) from survivors to set up a blood
bank which can be used for research and development to improve epidemiological and clinical
knowledge of viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHFs). The national reference laboratory should
coordinate this type of activity
5. The national reference laboratory should participate in the deployment of international mobile
laboratories, participate actively in field diagnosis, and benefit from technology transfer.
6. Consolidate links between laboratories and WHO CCs for research on VHF and promote a
regional approach and international cooperation.
5.3.3.6. Liaise and coordinate between human and wildlife epidemic surveillance (see paragraph 5.9.1 Enhanced wildlife surveillance):
1. A framework for wildlife epidemiological surveillance should be established in order to receive
reports of suspected cases and raise awareness in rural populations of the need to report
suspected cases in wildlife (i.e. animals found dead in the forest).
2. Establish and train mobile teams to investigate rumours and suspected cases in wildlife and
provide them with supplies (e.g. sampling devices, personal protective equipment (PPE), etc.) for
collecting specimens following biosafety protocols.
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3. Organize the collection of biological specimens (i.e. blood, liver, and spleen specimens, if a
necropsy is performed) for analysis following biosafety protocols.
4. Create and update a detailed database for reported animal cases.
5. Create a procedure and organize a sequence for diagnosis of disease in the wild animal
population. To accomplish this, it will be necessary to organize the preparation and transport of
specimens to the regional or central laboratory, make available the laboratory biosafety
guidelines, and collaborate with technically advanced laboratories for more sophisticated testing.
6. Manage the flow of information regarding laboratory results.
7. Consolidate links with reference laboratories and WHO CCs and promote a regional and
international approach.
8. Undertake studies to evaluate the risk of animal infection and formulate recommendations.
The subcommittee on epidemiological investigation, surveillance, and laboratory testing is also responsible for determining the date of the end of the epidemic, which is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola or Marburg (42 days) since the last infectious contact with a confirmed or probable case (see Chapter 6).
5.4 Behavioural and social interventions
5.4.1 Objective of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee The main objective of the social and behavioural interventions subcommittee is to listen to and address community concerns and to rapidly promote the adoption of culturally-sensitive practices that reduce the risk of transmission within the community. Given that there is no effective treatment or vaccine for Ebola or Marburg viruses, the only way to reduce the risk of human infections during an Ebola or Marburg outbreak is to engage in extensive dialogue and communicate the risk factors and the necessity of prevention measures that help reduce exposure and prevent further transmission of these viruses.
5.4.2 Competencies of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee The behavioural and social interventions subcommittee is tasked with:
Identifying 1-3 specific behavioural interventions that support outbreak control objectives. This should be the foundation around which community dialogue and social mobilization strategies will be based.
Conducting active listening and dialogue with communities in the affected and surrounding areas about the behaviours that are being promoted to reduce risk and protect local communities, information about the diseaseand its transmission modes, and outbreak control measures using appropriate channels, including but not limited to: outreach to and education of village chiefs, use of printed support materials (posters, brochures, etc.) radio messages, and public meetings.
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Identifying at-risk populations, including but not limited to hunters, health-care workers, miners, persons handling the deceased and conducting funerals, traditional healers and midwives, wildlife officers, ecologists, et al, and home care-givers (often women, who are in charge of familial care and funerals), and carrying out specific communication activities with those groups.
Providing feedback to the subcommittee and the committee on coordination and resource mobilization on community concerns and potential barriers to compliance with control measures.
Promoting community adherence to the recommended outbreak control measures through a culturally sensitive, strategic mix of communication channels and activities.
5.4.3 Activities of the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee
5.4.3.1. Among opinion makers (government, traditional, community, religious, sports, etc.):
Ask for their support and contribution to adapting control measures within the community settings and to identify potential barriers and solutions.
Ask for their support to conduct and organize awareness-raising activities to enhance the involvement of all community entities
Anticipate and mediate potential conflicts of interest within the community
Request their support to organize and implement psychosocial assistance and support activities
Mobilize all relevant community structures to promote compliance with prevention programmes and programmes to contain transmission of the disease
5.4.3.2. In the community
Conduct intensive dialogue on the control measures and how it reduces exposure and transmission of the disease at home and in the community. Use trusted and credible people and appropriate channels (education of village chiefs, use of printed support materials – posters, brochures – radio messages, public meetings)
Understand the views of the population from their sociocultural perspective and respond to their needs and concerns accordingly
Engage with those in high-risk occupations (hunters, health care workers, nursing staff, miners, persons conducting burials, traditional healers, wildlife officers, ecologists, veterinarians, etc.)
Identify and activate ways to reach women e.g. through women’s organizations, because women are often the ones in charge of home care or funerals in the affected populations.
Meet with traditional healers to bring awareness to VHF and promote the use of standard precautions
Encourage community compliance with the recommended outbreak control measures
Strengthen the capacity of community workers: o To promote the implementation of standard precautions when caring for sick people
in the home and when handling and disposing of dead animals found in the forest, o To promote community participation in epidemiological surveillance at the
community level (reporting, alert)
Promote the organization of safe burials by specialized teams under the supervision of the medical team, respecting funeral ceremonies
Encourage the community to take suspected viral haemorrhagic fever cases to see a health care worker (surveillance team) without delay.
Discredit myths through providing responses that are both accurate and that resonate with the community
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5.4.3.3. In health-care facilities:
Ensure that information concerning the patient is communicated to the family.
To the extent possible, facilitate safe family visits to the patient.
Also see Section 5.5 on Media and communications.
For Ebola and Marburg, the following information may be used at the community level The investigation teams must identify the main transmission risks and experts must choose key information and priority interventions in accordance with local circumstances. This includes risk of:
wild animal-to-human transmission;
human-to-human transmission in the community through contact;
human-to-human transmission in the community during funerals; and
human-to-human transmission through inappropriate use of injection material. 1. In order to reduce the risk of wild animal-to-human transmission following contact with wild
animals (e.g. monkeys and other primates, forest antelopes, porcupines, bats, etc.), after handling animal tissue, during slaughtering or butchering, and after consumption of raw meat:
avoid touching already dead or sick animals in the forest;
in Ebola- or Marburg-endemic areas, only eat bats and bush meat that have been well-cooked;
during work, research activities, or tourism in mines or caves inhabited by bat colonies, wear gloves and appropriate PPE (including masks);
wear gloves and other appropriate protective clothing when handling wild animals or their tissue and during slaughtering procedures;
wash hands immediately after taking off gloves and other PPE. 2. In order to reduce the risk of human-to-human transmission in the community through direct or
close contact with infected patients, especially body fluids:
avoid touching the patient without protection. Any close physical contact with a suspected Ebola or Marburg patient must be avoided;
avoid touching the patients’ body fluids, either on the patient or in their environment;
wear gloves and appropriate PPE in home-care settings;
wash hands immediately after taking off gloves or other PPE;
wash hands with soap each time after visiting sick relatives in hospital or after providing home care;
report suspected cases detected in the community immediately to the response teams and send the patient to a health-care centre; and
prohibit the injection of medication at home during outbreaks. 3. In order to reduce the risk of human-to-human transmission within the community during
funerals, e.g. through direct or close contact with the body of the deceased, especially with body fluids:
bury deceased Ebola or Marburg patients quickly and safely in the presence of their family or at least a representative and
avoid touching the body of the deceased without appropriate protection. 4. In order to reduce the risk of human-to-human transmission through inappropriate use of
injection material (needles, syringes, bottles, etc.):
use only disposable injection material and
refer persons requiring injections to a health-care centre for treatment.
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5.4.4 Contribution of the Communication for Behavioural Impact methodology
Behavioural and social interventions can be implemented by following the Communication for Behavioural Impact (COMBI) method developed by WHO and its partners. This methodology is aimed at promoting the adoption of specific behaviours that reduce disease risk and protect health (Annex 10). COMBI uses a systematic process to assess the outbreak control measures in their social, cultural, economic, and political settings to identify what is feasible, culturally appropriate, and technically sound. COMBI then proposes a strategic mix to promote the adoption of outbreak control measures through:
administrative mobilization/public relations/advocacy and close cooperation with the national/federal, civil, political, military, and traditional authorities;
interpersonal communication and counselling through dialogue;
community mobilization through group discussions, meetings, etc.;
promotion of service provision sites, such as clinics and special referral/information centres; and
the development of information products and materials, as needed.
5.4.5 Contribution of medical anthropology The behavioural and social interventions subcommittee should draw upon contributions made by medical anthropology in order to:
address the widespread fear generated by Ebola or Marburg epidemics;
identify diverse sociocultural behaviours of local populations and propose appropriate interventions;
gain a better knowledge of virus transmission routes; and
put a human face on interventions, striking a balance between compulsory measures and understanding and compassion.
During past Ebola and Marburg outbreak control operations, anthropologists have been part of the international response activities at various levels: epidemiological investigations, surveillance; patient and family care; organization of burials; awareness-raising and mobilization; and ongoing vocational training (Annex 11). Their presence has confirmed that the urgency and gravity of an epidemic should not prevent the different stakeholders from listening to the population and taking into account indigenous codes and knowledge of cultural customs, expertise, and beliefs. The participation of anthropologists has contributed to a better understanding of virus transmission routes and the behaviours of populations. This has shed light on indigenous concepts of infection, disease, and death and helped to respond to crisis situations by ensuring an immediate cultural and psychological translation of discourse and events, especially reactions of defiance or even hostility from local populations. Many people in the affected populations, regardless of whether they are educated or illiterate, may not readily accept medical teams’ explanations of the epidemic. Worn out by poverty and sometimes decades of war, they distrust the competency of politicians or national and international experts.
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Ethnomedical studies point to the predominant indigenous explanations of misfortune: the disease is caused not only by the virulence of the virus and human behaviour, but also by the “evil” actions of humans and non-human forces. In the case of Ebola and Marburg epidemics, since there is no treatment or vaccine, the virological model is just one explanation among others, thus giving free rein to deniers of microbiology and avid conspiracy theorists. It is also important to think about pre- and post-epidemic phases in health districts with substandard public health facilities, especially on the periphery of national parks. In order to prevent the emergence of viruses from the forest, better living conditions and access to health care are vital for populations at the edge of national parks or rural areas. Imposing a ban on hunting, which is often deliberately ignored even by those responsible for policing it, is not effective. Lastly, anthropological approaches suggests specific recommendations for a more humane approach to victims, whether alive or dead, and their families; that is to say, people must be treated as human beings and with human dignity, not just as bodies or groups of infected persons. This avoids further traumatization of a population that is already terrified and made vulnerable by a misfortune they struggle to understand. It helps to improve a population’s compliance with medical and health recommendations when these are appropriately adapted to the local, cultural context. In a situation where emergency operations leave little room for the individual, where the health measures imposed may add poverty due to the loss of a loved one, when analysing whether their proposals are appropriate and feasible and thus acceptable to the local population, medical teams must always ask themselves: Would these health measures be acceptable if the medical teams were in the place of the population affected, or if their loved ones were at risk? It is important to remember that, in addition to instruction manuals and guidelines from various public health institutions, medical anthropology helps to devise measures tailored to local circumstances that juggle health constraints and local needs, whether these be ecological, economic, political, cultural, psychological, historical, or religious in nature.
Note: An additional contribution of medical anthropology has been the production of ethnographical videos on safe funeral rites, which have been disseminated during epidemics for the purpose of social mobilization and in the context of ongoing vocational training between epidemics (Annex 33).
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5.5 Media communications
5.5.1 Objective of the media and communications subcommittee The main objective of the Media communications subcommittee is to establish effective communication with the media.
5.5.2 Competencies of the media communications subcommittee The logistics and safety subcommittee and the media communications subcommittee normally report directly to the coordination and resource mobilization committee. Modern technology and the ability to rapidly disseminate information means, the press closely follows the management of epidemics, especially in the case of outbreaks of Ebola or Marburg virus disease. There should be a strong link and mechanisms in place to exchange information rapidly between the media and communications subcommittee and the behavioural and social intervention subcommittee. This would allow for appropriate action and follow up on rumours and misinformation and communicating information and stories that explain and personalize outbreak control measures. A strong communications mechanism also helps demonstrate to the public that their local authorities are listening and responding to the concerns of local communities. This, in turn, supports transparency and trust.
Communication-related tasks are the following: 1. Develop a communication plan together with the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of
Livestock/Agriculture, and the Ministry of the Environment/Natural Resources (responsible for wildlife) in order to convey coherent and comprehensive messages about Ebola and Marburg. If the Ministry of Defence is responsible for military health services, it must also be invited to participate in the development of the joint plan.
2. Focus on partnerships with the media and on providing effective communication to the public (the press can be a partner in an epidemic response).
3. Contribute to mobilizing resources for research projects by bringing on board the national and international press.
4. Train journalists to improve communication on Ebola and Marburg. 5. Train communicators in government and relevant institutions to enhance communication in crisis
situations, including Ebola or Marburg outbreaks.
Effective communication with the media is a key element in Ebola or Marburg epidemic management. According to WHO guidelines on outbreak communication (Annex 9), the effectiveness of the media and communications subcommittee is based on five critical best practices:
Build trust: Building a trust-based relationship with the media is the basis for all effective communication and can result in messaging that informs, directs, and calms the public with regard to the outbreak response.
Announce early: Early announcement of outbreaks through the media can contribute positively and effectively to early containment and builds public confidence.
Be transparent: As much as possible, in disclosing important information, it is important to communicate in ways that are transparent, clear, and easily understood. Sometimes, however, transparency has appropriate limitations. For example, when it concerns
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confidential information about patients, ethical considerations may preclude the disclosure of information to the media.
Respect public concerns: Public concerns will be diverse, but they are legitimate and should be explored and respected, as they can have an impact on how the public responds to an outbreak and how it adopts prevention and control measures.
Plan in advance: Advanced outbreak communication planning should be part of outbreak management planning.
5.5.3 Activities of the media and communications subcommittee
The joint action plan must address the following activities: 1. Collect daily information from the response and coordination committee, including the latest
updates, and write press releases to be communicated by the spokespersons of the main ministries concerned (health, livestock/agriculture, environment/natural resources, defence).
2. Set up a process for prompt preparation and release of press materials by relevant ministries in
order to ensure quick dissemination. 3. Organize joint, prompt, regular, and transparent communication with the national and
international press. 4. Organize shared news outlets to report on the latest developments (a first news outlet for
announcing future activities is crucial, especially when it comes to social mobilization). 5. Write and distribute, including via the Internet, regular joint information bulletins or joint press
releases. 6. Identify the most effective media to reach the greatest audience in urban and rural areas and get
them to publish key messages about prevention (restrict practices that promote transmission) and surveillance (report rumours and suspected cases).
7. Hold a press conference to provide in-depth information to journalists about the current
situation and about Ebola and Marburg, in general. 8. Take photos and record video (B-roll footage) of the work of the epidemic management teams in
order to document their activities and make these photos and videos available to the media to raise awareness of response activities in the field.
9. Regularly meet with social mobilization, /health promotion, /and anthropologist teams to
understand gaps and alter communication messages.
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5.6 Clinical case management
5.6.1 Objective of the subcommittee for clinical case management The main objective of the subcommittee for clinical case management is to ensure that patients are provided with proper care, that infection control guidelines are observed at all health facilities, and that the clinical care medical team organizes the funerals of victims respecting customs to help families with the grieving process.
5.6.2 Competencies of the subcommittee for clinical case management The subcommittee for clinical case management is tasked with:
Ensuring compliance with the inpatients' charter (Annex 12).
Organizing the management of Ebola and Marburg patients and applying the Interim Infection Control Recommendations (Annex 15) in the affected area(s).
Strengthening or introducing standard precautions in health care (Annex 13) for the management of all other patients in the affected area(s).
Strengthening or introducing standard precautions in health care at all catchment hospitals outside the affected area(s).
Organizing the safe transport of patients from their homes to health-care centres and treatment facilities.
Organizing the burial of victims.
5.6.3 Activities of the subcommittee for clinical case management The management of Ebola or Marburg patients must be in compliance with the inpatients' charter of the respective institution (Annex 12):
Patient safety in hospital is a fundamental right that must be guaranteed to all hospital patients.
Nursing care staff must make the quality of reception, treatment, and care a priority.
Hospital staff must offer psychological support to patients and their families.
Patients and their families have a right to transparent, clear, understandable, accessible, and reliable information.
Each medical intervention requires the free and informed consent of the patient. Consent may be given in writing or orally (Annex 26).
In the framework of biomedical research, consent forms must be written in the national language. If the person is unable to give consent (e.g. if they are underage), then the free and informed consent of a parent or legal guardian is required. If the patient is illiterate, then a third party may act as witness.
The patient’s beliefs and religion must be respected.
The patient’s right to privacy and confidentiality must be upheld.
Patients and their families must be given the opportunity to participate in health care decisions that affect them.
Treatment is based on:
Palliative care: rehydration is essential (oral or others depending on circumstances), and should include maintenance of electrolyte balance (for example with a potassium supplement) and kidney and liver function support.
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Symptomatic treatment: pain-killers, antiemetic against vomiting, anxiolytics to combat anxiety, antibiotics, antimalarial remedies.
Intensive care: use of oxygen.
In the event of severe bleeding and if intravenous therapy is an option: transfusion of blood or previously-tested blood components (i.e. red blood cells, platelet concentrates, fresh frozen plasma).
Use of equipment to monitor biochemical and blood values of patients to maintain electrolyte balance.
Do not use products containing salicylates (i.e. acetylsalicylic acid/aspirin) or other non- steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS) as these cause the blood to thin and increase the risk of bleeding.
At the current state of knowledge, serotherapy is not recommended for the treatment of Ebola or Marburg.
The outcome of the laboratory diagnostic test for Ebola or Marburg, which is important for classifying suspected cases in the field.
ATTENTION. In case of accidental exposure (needlestick injury, contact with body fluids, etc.):
Immediately wash with soapy water (use pure water for the eyes)
Report the incident immediately to a supervisor.
Monitor the exposed person for a period of 21 days, including overall condition, psychological condition, temperature, etc.
Patients (or their families, if they are unable to do so) must give their express consent to hospitalization. If the patient refuses, home care must be arranged in order to reduce the risk of disease transmission in the home and should include a provision of protective equipment. Home care must be an exception, as it does not offer the same degree of safety and quality of care as a hospital. For a detailed description of home care, see Annex 16. For additional information about forced isolation or confinement, see Section 5.8.
The subcommittee for clinical case management, in cooperation with the psychosocial support team, must develop a protocol for the reintegration of returning patients into their families and their communities (Annex 17). Successful reintegration of Ebola and Marburg survivors requires in-depth dialogue with the families and village chief prior to their return to the community. By agreeing to care arrangements proposed by the medical team, the patient enhances his/her chances of getting better and preventing transmission within their family or the community, which reaffirms the message that patients can successfully return to their communities. The subcommittee for clinical case management must provide the patient with a medical certificate upon release. The certificate must state that the patient poses no risk to his/her family or neighbours. Male patients must be informed that their sperm may still be contagious for a period of three months and they should only have protected sexual relations during this period. The medical team must provide a sufficient supply of condoms. This warning must be stated on the medical certificate issued on release. New vaccines and therapies (i.e. antivirals, monoclonal antibodies) against Ebola and Marburg have not yet been released for large-scale use in the field. A strategy involving post-exposure immunization with recombinant vaccines or monoclonal antibodies (e.g. after contact with an Ebola case or exposure to the virus) may be proposed soon, but the research protocols need to be submitted to the ethical research committees of the countries concerned prior to their implementation (see Section 5.8).
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Box 3. The right to compassionate and available treatment Ebola and Marburg outbreaks constitute a public health threat in Central and West Africa. These epidemics have a devastating effect on the health system, as they lead to profound social upheaval among the local inhabitants and are associated with a case fatality rate ranging from 25% to 90%. To date, no vaccine or antiviral treatment has been approved for human use. Care is currently palliative and supportive. On very rare occasions, accidental inoculation with Ebola or Marburg has occurred among persons working in maximum containment biosafety laboratories in industrialized countries. In 2009 in Germany, a scientist accidentally pricked herself with a needle contaminated with the Ebola virus. In less than 48 hours, an experimental recombinant vaccine developed in Canada was made available for post-exposure treatment. This was the first human use of the vaccine. The decision to use the vaccine was taken following consultations among German and Canadian experts. Since 2007, scientists have shown that the vaccine was highly effective for post-exposure protection of experimentally infected primates. The scientist survived, but it is unclear whether this was due to the vaccine treatment or if she was never infected through the needlestick. Efforts to provide the German scientist with a greater chance of surviving possible infection with a deadly agent like Ebola are commendable and justified. Making post-exposure treatment available during Ebola and Marburg epidemic control operations in Africa is feasible and would certainly be highly beneficial, especially for health-care workers who are required to provide care to infected patients. From a moral and ethical point of view, it is legitimate to ask that the same efforts be made to make the experimental vaccine available for post-exposure treatment in Africa, as was the case in Germany.
5.6.4 Standard precautions in health care 5.6.4.1 Management of Ebola or Marburg patients in the affected area(s) In the affected area(s), the subcommittee for clinical case management, which includes infection prevention and control, must ensure the implementation of adequate barrier nursing procedures for the management of Ebola or Marburg patients (Annex 15). This includes:
establishment of an isolation ward;
training of health-care workers required to work in the isolation ward;
supply and verification of personal protective equipment (PPE; masks, gowns, boots, etc.) and special instruments for safe invasive procedures;
safe transport of patients to the isolation ward;
decontamination of soiled areas and the transport vehicle;
safe management of health-care waste (Annex 14);
examination and triage of patients on admission to the isolation ward;
drafting and posting of a standard treatment protocol; and
supplying patients with medication and necessary equipment.
In the isolation area, the medical team is responsible for the well-being of hospitalized patients (water, food, light, hygiene) and patients should receive medical care and food free of charge.
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Patients should receive regular visits from their doctor(s).
Family visits to patients. For their own safety, visitors must wear adequate PPE.
Restrict access to isolation areas in order to: o safeguard the patient’s privacy and dignity (e.g. prevent intrusion by the media) and o prevent contamination of visitors and the spread of the disease.
5.6.4.2 Management of other patients in the affected area(s) The subcommittee for clinical case management must promote the implementation of standard precautions in health care (Annex 13) in the management and care of all other patients at all health- care facilities, both by health-care workers and, as may be requested by the patient, by traditional healers, in the affected area(s). 5.6.4.3 Outside the affected area(s) The subcommittee for clinical case management must ensure the implementation of standard precautions in health care at all catchment hospitals.
5.6.5 Organization of burials by the subcommittee for clinical case management
During Marburg and Ebola epidemics, any unprotected handling of the bodies of infected patients who have died constitutes a biosafety hazard. The management of burials is therefore the responsibility of the clinical case management or medical team, in collaboration with experts in infection prevention and control.
The subcommittee for clinical case management is tasked with constituting an expert team to oversee the safe burial of victims. This team must adhere to the following key principles:
Verbally convey condolences and sympathy to the victim’s family.
Clearly, but empathetically, explain the procedure for the handling of remains for those who have died from Ebola or Marburg and outline how and why procedures for preparing the body for burial and the actual burial itself will need to differ from standard/local traditions. If a psychologist is available, collaborate with them in communicating with the family of the deceased (see Section 5.7.3).
Conduct the burial as a funeral ceremony, with respect for the deceased, to help the family in their grieving process.
During the funeral ceremony, explain to those in attendance what the disinfection protocol and burial standards are in order to prevent direct contact with the blood or body fluids of the deceased and why this is important.
Ensure that the patient’s home is disinfected.
Health-care workers, family members, and the burial team must observe standard precautions in health care when handling an Ebola or Marburg victim. This includes the use of PPE, compliance with hand hygiene guidelines, and standard precautions for contact with infected blood, body fluids and materials, especially splashes on surfaces. As per the Interim Infection Control Recommendations for Care of Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Filovirus (Ebola, Marburg) Haemorrhagic Fever (Annex 17), the main recommendations are:
The handling of human remains should be kept to a minimum
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The following recommendations should be adhered to in principle, but may need some adaptation to take account of cultural and religious concerns and should be communicated to the family members of the deceased:
o Remains should not be washed or embalmed. o Only trained personnel should handle remains during the outbreak and following
death. o Personnel handling remains should wear PPE (gloves, gowns, tyvek suit, surgical
masks, and eye protection) and closed shoes that can be disinfected. o The remains must be placed in a waterproof body bag or, if no body bag is available,
wrapped in a sealed, leakproof cloth or bag and then, if possible, placed inside a coffin. Remains should be buried promptly.
o Protective equipment should be put on at the site of collection of human remains and worn during the process of collection, placement of the body in a body bag, and placement of body bag into a coffin. The PPE should only be removed once the body is secure in the coffin.
o During the transport of the coffin, neither the personnel riding in the cab nor relatives accompanying the coffin on the rear cargo area of the vehicle, are required to wear PPE. However, the bearers of the coffin must wear thick gloves.
o At the family’s request, the coffin may be buried in accordance with local beliefs. The family may help carry the coffin to the cemetery under the supervision of the clinical case management or medical team.
It is strongly recommended that the graves of Ebola and Marburg victims be identified, in accordance with local customs.
If the patient died while in hospital, the remains should ideally be dealt with in a special care unit (this may be the patient’s room in the hospital or the autopsy room, if an autopsy was performed on the patient). For home interventions, the burial team must have at least three people wearing PPE: two for handling the remains and one for carrying and administering the disinfection spray throughout and around the home. However, if the body is exceptionally heavy, additional people may be needed. On the periphery of the work area, one person, dressed normally, should observe, coordinate, and guide the team in their handling of the deceased.
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5.7 Psychosocial management
5.7.1 Objective of the psychosocial management subcommittee The main objective of the psychosocial management subcommittee is to ensure the availability of psychosocial support for families of victims, the community, and health-care workers.
5.7.2 Competencies of the psychosocial management subcommittee The psychosocial management subcommittee is tasked with:
Providing psychosocial assistance to families, especially by reducing funeral-related stresses.
Ensuring that the families of victims receive compensation for objects destroyed during disinfection.
Providing psychosocial support to health-care workers.
Pre-empting stigma and facilitating the social reintegration of recovering patients and victims’ families into their communities.
If necessary, identifying and creating a mechanism for looking after orphans.
5.7.3 Activities of the psychosocial management subcommittee By their very nature, Ebola or Marburg outbreaks cause anxiety, fear, and even panic. Individuals, families, or entire communities may be affected. People may lose their loved ones, be separated from their families or their community, or witness violence or destruction of goods. Everyone is affected by these events; many people may feel overwhelmed, confused or lost. Some may react mildly, while others may react very strongly. Some people are particularly vulnerable during outbreaks and may need extra help. This includes people who may be exposed to infection risk (contact persons, families, hunters, health-care workers, et al.), persons who need extra support because of their age (children, the elderly) or who may have a mental or physical disability, or because they belong to groups that may be marginalized or targeted for violence. During Ebola or Marburg outbreaks, public health activities are crucial, but must be complemented by social and mental health interventions. Social interventions do not typically fall within the expertise of mental health professionals, but they address important issues that have repercussions on mental health. In order to ensure the implementation of appropriate social interventions, health- care and mental health professionals must cooperate with other community intermediaries, such as teachers, village chiefs, religious leaders, child protection networks, women’s groups, social services, the media, community-based organizations, and where appropriate, traditional healers. Social interventions during the outbreak
Establish and disseminate an ongoing flow of credible information about: (a) the nature of the disease and the recommended methods for reducing the risk of infection; (b) the availability of medical evaluation and treatment and how and where to obtain them; (c) any other relief efforts (including what each aid organization is doing) and where they are located. Information should be disseminated according to the principles of risk communication: it should be timely (to avoid prejudicial rumours), readily comprehensible (i.e. understandable by 12-year-olds) and emphatic (see Section 5.5 and Annex 11).
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In order to promote their active participation, field officers should be briefed in the area of health and social welfare, particularly regarding issues of fear, grief, disorientation, and the needs of the population.
If feasible, set up a telephone support system to reduce the isolation of hospitalized patients.
If the area affected by the epidemic is quarantined, enhance access to communication with absent relatives and friends.
Reduce funeral-related stress. Burial arrangements must help the family’s grieving process (see Section 5.6.5). If at all realistic, local cultural and religious customs should be respected. The bereaved need to have the possibility to conduct ceremonious funerals and – assuming that it is not mutilated or decomposed – see the body to say goodbye. Remember to organize death certificates to avoid unnecessary financial and legal consequences for relatives.
Once the epidemic is over and assuming the activity is safe and it does not violate infection prevention procedures, encourage the resumption of social activities that may have been interrupted as part of the effort to curb human-to-human transmission (see Section 6.3)
Mental health interventions during the outbreak
As far as possible, manage acute distress without medication following the principles of psychological first aid (Annex 21): listen; convey compassion; assess needs; ensure basic needs are met; do not force people to talk; provide or mobilize company, preferably from family or close friends; encourage but do not force social support; protect from further harm.
Psychological first aid is basic, natural support, and can be taught quickly to health-care professionals, non-experts, volunteer carers, and other community resource persons (e.g. teachers, clergy).
This psychological first aid should be made available in the community and at health-care centres. It should also be made available to grieving relatives. An essential component of this psychological first aid is protection, which is important because feelings of anxiety linked to a disease like Ebola or Marburg may lead people to behave irrationally in ways that put others in jeopardy.
Manage urgent psychiatric and neurological complaints (e.g. psychoses, severe depression) as soon as possible. Ensure availability of essential psychotropic medication at all levels of the health-care system to guarantee treatment for persons suffering from pre-existing psychiatric disorders. Health-care workers should avoid mass prescription of benzodiazepines to treat acute anxiety. Over-prescription of benzodiazepines is common in health crises and is associated with potential dependence.
Develop contingency plans for the management of psychotic, difficult-to-control, and contagious patients (e.g. reserve a separate hospital room for such patients).
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5.8 Research projects and ethical issues
5.8.1 Objective of the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues The subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues operates in two contexts: research and clinical management. The main objectives of the subcommittee are: In research context
Make sure that all research protocols proposed by national and international teams have been reviewed for their scientific merit.
Make sure that the projects have been reviewed by a research ethics committee.
Help protect patients’ rights in clinical research activities. Please note that the subcommittee does not review the research protocol itself, but instead must consult the national research ethics committee. If the country does not have a research ethics committee, the evaluation may be undertaken at the regional or international level (Annex 27). In the clinical management context
Make sure that the principles of medical ethics (Annex 22) and patients’ rights are respected: o Information transparency with respect to screening and communication of results o Express written or verbal consent o Confidentiality of personal data and respect for privacy o Non-discrimination o Equal access to care
Reaffirm that health-care workers in charge of Ebola or Marburg patients have an obligation to deliver care to the patients, subject to certain limitations (see below).
Make sure that the patient rights are respected when imposing what may be perceived or misunderstood as coercive health measures, in cooperation with the clinical case management team.
5.8.2 Competencies of the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues
During Ebola or Marburg epidemics, research may be conducted in different areas: clinical research; therapeutic trials; vaccine trials; physiopathology; epidemiology; laboratory tests; ecology; anthropology; and social sciences. Within the research context, the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues is tasked with contributing to:
Identifying key research topics, giving priority to projects that benefit the affected populations directly.
Informing response teams that all research proposals must be submitted for review of their scientific and ethical merit.
Drawing up a list of research proposals and submitting them for scrutiny to national and/or international experts.
Making sure that researchers have submitted all research protocols to the local (institutional or national) ethics committee. If the country does not have an ethics committee, evaluation may be undertaken at the regional or international level.
Informing the heads of research projects of the final decisions of the subcommittee on research projects and ethical issues and/or the national ethics committee.
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Within the clinical management context, the subcommittee is tasked with making sure that:
Patients’ rights are respected.
Health-care workers fulfil their duty of care.
The national authorities have provided the necessary means for the implementation of infection control recommendations to care for Ebola or Marburg patients.
With the assistance of the national ethics committee of the country concerned or any other experts, recommendations have been made on ethical implications of clinical management of patients, e.g.:
o Placement in isolation o Quarantine o Border control o The creation of a quarantine line and restrictions on community interaction o The role and duties of nursing staff during an Ebola or Marburg outbreak, including
moral, professional, contractual, and legal obligations.
5.8.3 Activities of ethical research subcommittee Within the context research 1. Identify a local ethics committee During an Ebola or Marburg outbreak, one of the first actions of the ethical research subcommittee is to find out where there is a local or national research ethics committee. If there is none, the subcommittee must refer the protocol to a regional (Regional Ethical Committee: AFRO REC) or international ethics committee for review. 2. Writing research protocols Considering the unpredictable nature of Ebola or Marburg epidemic outbreaks, medical teams wishing to establish research protocols during these outbreaks should prepare general research protocols in advance, particularly as regards clinical research, therapeutic trials, and vaccine trials. These general research protocols should be written during the pre-epidemic phase. They should then be pre-approved by: the ethics committees of the research institute concerned, the WHO Ethics Committee, and the ethics committees of Central African countries. During the outbreak, they should be adapted to the local context and submitted to the subcommittee on research projects and ethical aspects for final approval prior to their implementation. 3. Importance of pre-epidemic activities Today, the ethical review of research protocols prior to implementation of a study constitutes an essential requirement for quality research in all countries. Given the importance of ethics committees during Ebola or Marburg outbreaks, these must be set up during the pre-epidemic phase. Training modules for research ethics evaluation are available on the Internet (Annex 28). The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Council for Health Research for Development (COHRED) have established a global Internet platform (Health Research Web: HRWeb) which provides practical information and tools to assist countries and individuals in managing their national health research systems more effectively and strengthening the role and conduct of research authorities (Annex 27). Additional information may be found in each country on research governance and policies, national priorities, health research institutions and networks, national ethics committee focal points, and the review committees responsible for national health research.
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Within the context of clinical management of patients 1. Rights and duties of health-care workers responsible for Ebola or Marburg patients With the support of international teams, the national authorities have an obligation to provide health-care workers with the necessary means for implementing infection control recommendations to care for Ebola or Marburg patients (Annex 15). The authorities have an obligation to:
Train, equip, and protect persons in charge of Ebola or Marburg patients. Provide health-care workers with the capacity and knowledge to implement barrier nursing
techniques. Set forth clear guidelines on the conditions under which health-care workers should operate,
what is expected of them, and the inherent risks of the situation. Provide for adequate compensation for the services provided by health-care workers; this
may be in the form of risk premiums and insurance for them and their families and disability benefits for those who contract the infection.
Provided that health-care workers have training, supplies, equipment, infrastructure, and reasonable support for implementing barrier nursing techniques, they can legitimately be expected to provide care to Ebola and Marburg patients. When that is the case, they have a moral obligation to provide care to Ebola and Marburg patients, even if doing so carries a certain risk. Doctors’ duty of care is closely linked to the duty of health-care systems to fulfil their obligations vis- à-vis the safety of health-care staff (and vice versa). If this is not the case and health-care system caregivers are exposed to considerable risk as a result, the refusal to work is morally justified. In such cases, it is the system, rather than the individual caregiver, that carries the moral responsibility for any complications arising for patients.
Important: If health-care workers believe that working conditions are unsafe, they must draw the attention of the local and national authorities to the situation. Governments and health-care systems have an obligation to make the necessary change, without jeopardizing improving infection control precautions, to ensure that staff can provide care safely.
2. Coercive health measures: what should be done if the patient refuses isolation or treatment? The management of Ebola or Marburg cases must take place on a voluntary basis. Patients (or their families, if the patient is unable to do so) must give their informed consent and cooperation. Involving patients in the decisions about their treatment shows respect for them, favours their autonomy, and improves the likelihood of their cooperation with the medical team. It is, in fact, very rare for persons who have been well informed about the drawbacks and benefits of treatment for Ebola to refuse care. Sometimes, although reasonable efforts have been made, patients may not want to receive care in a health centre. If the patient refuses, home care must be organized in order to reduce the risk of transmission in the home or in the community. Home care must be the exception, as it does not offer the same degree of safety and quality care as a hospital (Annex 16). It must be seen as a means of dialogue and communication with relatives in order to encourage them to accept referral to a hospital isolation unit at a later stage. The forced isolation of patients who agree to home care is futile and inappropriate. So long as the interest of the community is not in danger, home care is always preferable to forced isolation.
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Isolation must never be used as a form of either literal or perceived punishment. Patients who refuse treatment and thus put the community at risk must be informed well in advance that their refusal may lead to forced isolation. The forced isolation of Ebola or Marburg patients must be used only as a last resort. If, on rare occasions, forced isolation is deemed the only reasonable way to protect the public, implementation of the measure must be based on respect for ethical values and human rights. As enunciated in the Siracusa Principles (Annex 31), this means that these measures must be:
in conformity with the law; in the interest of a legitimate objective; strictly necessary in a democratic society; applied when there are no less intrusive and restrictive means available; and not imposed arbitrarily, unreasonably, or in a discriminatory manner.
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5.9 Logistics and safety
5.9.1 Objective of the logistics and safety subcommittee The main objective of the logistics and safety subcommittee is to provide logistical support for field operations and guarantee the safety of response teams.
5.9.2 Competencies of the logistics and safety subcommittee The logistics and safety subcommittee reports directly to the coordination and resource mobilization committee. The logistics and safety subcommittee is responsible for:
the management of material resources needed in control activities;
the transport of teams and equipment;
the shipment of patient specimens;
bookkeeping and the management of human resource deployment;
field security management; and
coordination of activities and logistics requirements in conjunction with other subcommittees and their activities.
5.9.3 Activities of the logistics and safety subcommittee
Telecommunications Install a telecommunications system to facilitate communication with field teams (VHF radio) and national and international authorities (telephone, Internet). Establishment and management of a field office At the source of the outbreak:
Set up operational offices for staff activities and committee meetings.
Organize bookkeeping (minor purchases, payment of per diems and salaries, etc.)
Order office supplies (computers, printers, photocopier, GPS).
Draw up an inventory of locally available resources (material and human).
Order and replenish supplies in a timely manner. Transport and relocation of staff
Administer vehicle fleet and other means of transport needed for team response activities, including: surveillance, social mobilization, burials, etc.
Coordinate the relocation of mobile teams (surveillance, social mobilization, funerals).
Plan for the rotation of domestic and international staff.
Coordinate travel arrangements for international staff. Programme support and supply
Ensure the supply and transport of personal protective equipment (PPE) (gowns, masks, goggles, boots, etc.)
Ensure the supply of PPE and disinfectants for infection response teams and safe burial teams.
Manage health-care waste and isolation units in coordination with the subcommittee for clinical case management of patients.
Administration, safety, and protection
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Depending on the circumstances, provide food for patients and response teams or ensure that such provisions are made by the relevant groups and agencies.
Guarantee the safety of premises and staff involved in outbreak control activities.
Brief staff on safety-related matters prior to field deployment. Where necessary, organize staff training in logistics.
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5.10 Environmental management
5.10.1 Enhanced wildlife surveillance
Experience has shown that Ebola epidemics in wild animals often precede human outbreaks. During outbreaks, it is thus important to step up wildlife monitoring activities and develop operational cooperation between animal health services and public-health authorities to ensure early warning of possible human Ebola outbreaks. As soon as there are rumours of animal die-off, national park services (or veterinary services) should take specimens from dead animal carcasses for diagnostic purposes, using protective equipment. The specimens must be sent to a reference laboratory for analysis. As soon as animal cases are confirmed, animal health services must alert the public health authorities so they can put in place programmes to prevent a human outbreak. In this context and above all, Ebola prevention messages should be disseminated among hunters and forest dwellers. These key messages may be the following (see Section 5.4.5):
do not touch animal carcasses found in the forest;
do not touch monkey, gorilla, or chimpanzee carcasses found in the forest;
report information about animal carcasses in the forest to the national park services;
do not hunt in areas where animal carcasses have already been found;
avoid contact with animal blood when butchering animal carcasses at home, in the forest, or at the market, by wearing waterproof or plastic gloves;
wash hands immediately after taking off the gloves or other PPE; and
do not eat raw meat or organs and cook meat well prior to consumption.
5.10.2 Enhanced surveillance of mines During recent outbreaks of Marburg virus, all index cases were mineworkers working in mines inhabited by thousands of infected bats. Often mineworkers do not use PPE or do not wear the full required PPE and wear only boots and gloves. Work in mines and regular exposure to bats in an enclosed space results in a high infection risk among mineworkers. Surveillance of haemorrhagic fever cases is thus particularly important in those parts of Africa where mines are infested with bat colonies. Mining companies must ensure mineworkers’ safety in order to reduce the risk of contamination. In this context, the messages for preventing Marburg should be disseminated above all in mining companies and among mineworkers. These key messages may be the following:
- Make sure that the mine is well ventilated - Ensure that masks, helmets, gloves, and boots are worn.
5.10.3 Veterinary surveillance of domestic pig farms
In 2008-09, the Ebola Reston virus was isolated in pigs in the Philippines following an outbreak of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). Moreover, human infection through exposure to infected pigs has been demonstrated in workers on pig farms and in slaughterhouses. Experimental inoculation of laboratory animals showed that pigs are susceptible to infection with the Ebola Zaïre virus, which can reproduce and spread among them. Pig farms in outbreak areas must
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therefore be considered potential sites of virus amplification and the attendant risk must be managed. In order to reduce the risk of virus amplification in pigs during Ebola and Marburg outbreaks, the public and animal health authorities should:
Establish a clinical and serological surveillance system of pig farms throughout the affected area so that any circulation of the virus on farms can be rapidly detected.
If there are any confirmed pig cases, the veterinary services should alert the public health services immediately so they can put specific prevention programmes in place.
If circulation of the virus on pig farms is confirmed, drastic health measures (slaughtering of infected animals, destruction of carcasses, compensation to farmers for the loss of earnings, restriction and regulation of movement of domestic pigs from the infected areas, quarantining of farms, all other measures recommended by international regulations) must be implemented in order to eradicate the infection in the pig population.
Adopt measures to prevent animal-to-human transmission of the infection on all farms, including: Avoiding direct contact with the blood or organs of sick animals or carcasses: do not
cut the throat or handle carcasses or foetuses of domestic pigs without protection. Wearing gloves and a mask (or any other protective device such as plastic bags on
hands or a cloth to cover the mouth to avoid direct contact) when handling sick animals or carcasses, especially during birth assistance (foetus and placenta), cutting animals’ throats, and burying carcasses.
Wearing good protective goggles when slaughtering or performing autopsies on infected animals.
Washing hands with disinfectant or soap immediately after contact with the body fluids of an animal.
Cooking all animal products (blood, meat, and milk) well prior to consumption.
Strengthen the food production system by ensuring contaminated pork does not enter the food chain and supervising home-based slaughter and slaughterhouses.
Implement appropriate biosafety measures in order to prevent the introduction of the Ebola virus into pig farms by bats (e.g. ban fruit trees on farms and within a perimeter of up to 50 metres around farms, put up nets to keep the bats off the pig farm, etc.)
The international veterinary authorities must ensure compliance with the standards for international trade in animals and animal products developed by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Human and animal health response teams must collaborate with pig farmers, retail butchers, and exporters to enhance their understanding of the risks of spreading the disease by moving animals around and to get them involved in prevention activities.
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Chapter 6. AFTER: WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ONCE THE EPIDEMIC IS OVER?
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6 After: What should be done once the epidemic is over?
6.1 Declare the end of the epidemic The government(s) of the affected country(ies), in collaboration with WHO, declares the end of the epidemic at the recommendation of the coordination and resource mobilization committee. The subcommittee on surveillance, epidemiology, and laboratory testing, which is responsible for establishing the date of the end of the epidemic submits the date to the coordination committee. This date is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola or Marburg (42 days) since the last infectious contact with a confirmed or probable case. The national authorities, in collaboration with WHO and international partners, should use the official announcement of the end of the epidemic as an opportunity to thank national and international actors involved in fighting the epidemic and the press. They should also formally convey their solidarity and empathy with the victims, victims’ families, and the populations affected.
6.2 Resume the activities of the pre-epidemic phase Once the outbreak is contained, the public health authorities should focus on the implementation of the long-term surveillance and prevention activities described in Chapter 3.
6.3 Medical follow-up of survivors After the outbreak, the public health authorities should set up a medical follow-up with the patients who have survived the infection (e.g. ensure that all patients have fully recovered, follow-up possible medical complications, follow-up male patients regarding possible infectious sperm. See Section 5.6.3). In addition, public health authorities should provide psychosocial follow-up for recovering patients (see Section 6.4).
6.4 Monitoring of recovering patients and social problems After the outbreak, the public health authorities should provide psychosocial follow-up for recovering patients. The social and mental health interventions recommended during the post-epidemic phase are described below. In addition to these interventions, comprehensive public education campaigns should be conducted to address social stigma and exclusion of former patients and health-care workers resulting from the public’s potentially excessive fear of contagion, contamination, or any other commonly held belief.
Social interventions during the post-epidemic phase Resume social activities at the end of the epidemic
The prohibition of social gatherings during the epidemic interrupts cultural and sporting activities. The declaration of the end of the epidemic is always a great relief for the local population and should go hand-in-hand with an official resumption of social activities.
Assuming the activities are safe (i.e. they do not violate standard infection prevention procedures), encourage the resumption of normal cultural, sports, and religious events (including grieving rituals in collaboration with spiritual and religious leaders).
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Encourage activities that facilitate the social inclusion of the bereaved, orphans, widows, and widowers.
Help organize recreational activities and encourage children’s return to school, even partially.
Conduct the appropriate social interventions described in Section 5.4. Mental health interventions during the post-epidemic phase
Train and supervise health centre staff in basic mental health knowledge. This should include: assessment of mental disorders; psychological first aid; supportive counselling; working with families; provision of appropriate psychotropic medication; suicide prevention; management of medically unexplained somatic complaints; management of organic mental disorders; substance use issues and referrals.
Train and supervise community workers to assist health centre staff with heavy case loads. Community workers may be volunteers, paraprofessionals, or professionals, depending on the context. They must be thoroughly trained in a number of core skills: assessment of individual, family, and group perceptions of problems; psychological first aid; providing emotional support, grief counselling, stress management, and problem-solving counselling; mobilizing family and community resources and referrals.
Educate humanitarian aid workers and community leaders (e.g. village chiefs, teachers, etc.) in core psychological care skills. Including: psychological first aid; emotional support; providing accurate and appropriate information; answering frequently asked questions; encouraging practical ways of coping; recognition of core mental health problems in order to raise awareness and community support and to improve the effectiveness of referrals.
Facilitate the creation of community-based self-help support groups. The focus of such self-help groups is problem sharing, brainstorming for solutions or more effective ways of coping, generation of mutual emotional support, and sometimes the encouragement of community- based initiatives.
6.5 Produce the end-of-epidemic report The main purpose of the end-of-epidemic-report is to describe the activities conducted during the epidemic, as well as constraints and difficulties encountered. This report is an important document detailing the management of the epidemic and the lessons learnt. It should be produced by the coordination committee and include a technical analysis and a financial and management report. Upon completion, the report should be submitted for adoption to a working group made up of national experts and technical partners and subsequently be distributed to national authorities and national and international partners. To the extent possible, the authors of the report should write articles on key information and recommendations contained in the report for publication in scientific journals or national or international magazines so that key challenges and lessons learnt are officially documented and available to the greater public health community.
6.6 Keep records on the epidemic
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Collect all reports, photographs, and other documentation on the management of the epidemic.
Keep all records in a readily accessible location for future use.
6.7 Evaluate the management of the epidemic Once the Ebola or Marburg outbreak is contained, the public health authorities and partners may decide to conduct an evaluation mission in order assess the quality of epidemic response interventions, draw lessons, and make recommendations for better management of future VHF epidemics. If at all realistic, the evaluation should be undertaken by a team of national experts and technical partners. In the evaluation, the different components of the response strategy will be scrutinized: coordination; relationship with the media; epidemiological investigation; surveillance and laboratory systems; social and behavioural interventions; clinical case management; ethical and logistical aspects; and so on. In its work, the evaluation mission should draw on meetings with Ministry of Health representatives, the end-of-epidemic report, records, and interviews with a range of target population groups (e.g. women’s associations, opinion makers, hunting associations, etc.). More specifically, the evaluation mission should:
Assess outbreak preparedness at the country level existence of an early warning system existence of national and local outbreak control committees existence of a national outbreak response plan level of outbreak management training for health-care workers level of public awareness pre-epidemic availability of supplies and medicines for outbreak response at the national
and local levels existence of a working ethics committee
Evaluate epidemic response activities, especially in the following areas: global response strategy (procedures, strategies and actions, promptness of response
and implementation of different phases, tools, partnership, etc.) detection of the epidemic (investigation of rumours, laboratory confirmation, etc.) establishment of a notification and report system: timeliness; accuracy of
information/data; and completeness of reports establishment of a surveillance and case detection system: timeliness; accuracy of
information/data; use of standard case definitions; contact follow-up/tracing coordination of national and local epidemic management clinical case management (evaluate the correct implementation of treatment protocols
and the implementation and compliance with infection prevention and control precautions in health care)
behavioural and social interventions (including the evaluation of what worked well and what did not to inform what policies and standard operating procedures need to be adapted or changed)
provide an opportunity for community and partner feedback suggest a mechanism to convey lessons learnt to local communities and partners outbreak communication: information sharing with partners, the media and the public hygiene and sanitation measures logistics
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safety psychosocial management (especially assess the mental state of survivors, their families,
and health-care workers who managed Ebola or Marburg cases) resource mobilization
Formulate suggestions and recommendations on all areas reviewed and include them in the final report. Once the evaluation report is completed, the results should be reported back to the national authorities and international partners and arrangements should be made for the report’s dissemination.
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Chapter 7. ANNEXES
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7 Annexes
Annexes on general information about Ebola and Marburg Annex 1. WHO Ebola haemorrhagic fever fact-sheet (no. 103) http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/index.html
Annex 2. WHO Marburg haemorrhagic fever fact-sheet (November 2012) http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_marburg/en/index.html
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Annexes on surveillance and epidemiology Annex 3a. Standard case definition of viral hemorrhagic fever for routine surveillance These case definitions are taken from the Technical Guidelines for Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDS) in the African Region, available at the following web address: http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/integrated-disease- surveillance/features/2775-technical-guidelines-for-integrated-disease-surveillance-and-response-in- the-african-region.html
Suspected Ebola or Marburg cases for routine surveillance: Illness with onset of fever and no response to treatment for usual causes of fever in the area, and at least one of the following signs: bloody diarrhoea, bleeding from gums, bleeding into skin (purpura), bleeding into eyes and urine.
Confirmed Ebola or Marburg cases for routine surveillance: A suspected case with laboratory confirmation (positive IgM antibody, positive PCR, or viral isolation).
Note: During an outbreak, these case definitions may be changed to correspond to the local event. Annex 3b. Standard case definition of viral haemorrhagic fever for community-based surveillance This definition of “alert cases” of Ebola or Marburg virus disease has been developed for use by the community or community-based volunteers. It may be used for community-based surveillance during the pre-epidemic phase and during the outbreak. Alert case:
Illness with onset of fever and no response to treatment of usual causes of fever in the area, OR at least one of the following signs: bleeding, bloody diarrhoea, bleeding into urine OR any sudden death.
Instructions:
If an alert case (living or dead) is identified: Report the case of a surveillance team or to the closest health centre
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Annex 3c. Examples of Marburg or Ebola virus disease case definitions that may be used during the outbreak (a) Case definition to be used by mobile teams or health stations and health centres SUSPECTED CASE: Any person, alive or dead, suffering or having suffered from a sudden onset of high fever and having had contact with: - a suspected, probable, or confirmed Ebola or Marburg case; - a dead or sick animal (for Ebola) - a mine (for Marburg) OR: any person with sudden onset of high fever and at least three of the following symptoms: • headaches • vomiting • anorexia / loss of appetite • diarrhoea • lethargy • stomach pain • aching muscles or joints • difficulty swallowing • breathing difficulties • hiccup OR: any person with inexplicable bleeding OR: any sudden, inexplicable death.
Instructions when a suspected case has been identified:
Report the case to the surveillance team
After obtaining express consent, collect a sample
Fill in a case notification form
Create a list of contacts of the suspected case If the subject is alive, explain to the patient and his/her family the need to go to hospital to receive adequate medical care. After having obtained the consent of the patient or his/her family, arrange for the hospital transfer. If the subject has passed away, explain to the family the need for conducting a safe burial. After obtaining consent, coordinate funeral arrangements with the burial team.
(b) Case definition for exclusive use by hospitals and surveillance teams PROBABLE CASE: Any suspected case evaluated by a clinician OR: Any deceased suspected case (where it has not been possible to collect specimens for laboratory confirmation) that has an epidemiological link with a confirmed case. Note: If laboratory specimens are collected from the patient during the illness, the suspected and probable categories should be reclassified as “laboratory-confirmed” cases or “non-cases” once laboratory results are received. LABORATORY-CONFIRMED CASES: Any suspected or probable cases with a positive laboratory result. Laboratory-confirmed cases must test positive for the virus antigen, either by detection of virus RNA by reverse transcriptase- polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), or by detection of IgM antibodies directed against Marburg or Ebola.
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NON-CASE: Any suspected or probable case with a negative laboratory result. Non-cases are those which showed no specific antibodies, RNA, or specific detectable antigens.
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Annex 4. Contact tracing: Standard definition of Ebola or Marburg contacts Important note: During an epidemic, these definitions may be changed to correspond to the local event. Ebola or Marburg case contacts: Any person having been exposed to a suspect, probable or confirmed case of Ebola or Marburg in at least one of the following ways:
has slept in the same household with a case
has had direct physical contact with the case (alive or dead) during the illness
has had direct physical contact with the (dead) case at the funeral
has touched his/her blood or body fluids during the illness
has touched his/her clothes or linens
has been breastfed by the patient (baby) Provided that this exposure has taken place less than 21 days before the identification as a contact by surveillance teams.
Contacts of dead or sick animals: Any person having been exposure to a sick or dead animal in at least one of the following ways:
has had direct physical contact with the animal
has had direct contact with the animal’s blood or body fluids
has carved up the animal
has eaten raw bush-meat Provided that this exposure has taken place less than 21 days before the identification as a contact by surveillance teams
Laboratory contacts: Any person having been exposed to biological material in a laboratory in at least one of the following ways:
has had direct contact with specimens collected from suspected Ebola or Marburg patients
has had direct contact with specimens collected from suspected Ebola or Marburg animal cases
Provided that this exposure has taken place less than 21 days before the identification as a contact by surveillance teams
Other infection risk factors include: contact with a hospital where Ebola or Marburg cases are being treated; infection; or vaccination in the 21 days preceding the onset of symptoms. The contact person should be followed for 21 days after exposure. If the contact person is asymptomatic for 21 days after exposure, he released the follow-up.
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Annex 5. Ebola or Marburg case investigation and recording sheet Date of case detection ___/___/___ Case reported by (tick the box and specify):
Mobile team, n° _____________ Health centre __________________________
Hospital __________________ Other: __________________________ Form filled in by (last and first name) ___________________________________________ Information passed on by (last and first name) ___________________________________________ Relationship with the patient ___________________________________________ Patient identity Nickname: __________________________ Surname ___________________ Second Names _______________ First Names _________________ Son/daughter of (name of father/mother) ________________________________________________
Date of birth ___/___/___ age (years)_____ Sex M F Ordinary residence: Head of household (last and first name) ______________________________
Village/neighbourhood of residence _______________ District ___________ GPS coordinates of domicile: Latitude _____________________ Longitude _____________________ Nationality: ____________________________ Ethnic group: ____________________________ Patient’s profession (tick the appropriate box and provide details if necessary)
Planter Homemaker Child Hunter/Bushmeat etailer
Health-care worker, specify: health-care facility _________________ Qualification _____________
Mineworker/Gold prospector________________ Starting date of mining activity: _________________
Pupil/Student Other (specify) ______________________ Patient’s condition
Condition of the patient when found Alive Dead If deceased, date of death ___/___/___
Place of death: Community, village/neighbourhood __________________ District _____________
Hospital, name and department ______________________ District _____________ Burial place, name of village/neighbourhood __________________________ District _____________ History of present illness Date on onset of symptoms ___/___/___ Name of the village where the patient became ill ____________________ District _______________
Has the patient moved around since he/she became ill? Yes No DK If the answer is “yes”, complete the list indicating villages, health-care facilities, and districts: Village _________________ Health-care facility___________________ District ______________ Village _________________ Health-care facility___________________ District ______________ Village _________________ Health-care facility___________________ District ______________ Clinical Does the patient show any of the following symptoms (tick all applicable)
Has the patient had a fever? Yes No DK If so, date of fever onset: ___/___/___ Does the patient have or had any of the following symptoms (tick the corresponding boxes and provide details if necessary):
headaches Yes No DK
Case ID number: ________________________
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diarrhoea Yes No DK
stomach pain Yes No DK
vomiting Yes No DK
lethargy Yes No DK
anorexia Yes No DK
muscular pain Yes No DK
difficulty swallowing Yes No DK
difficulty breathing Yes No DK
intense coughing Yes No DK
skin rash Yes No DK
bleeding at injection points Yes No DK
bleeding gums (Gingivitis) Yes No DK
bleeding in eye (conjunctival injection) Yes No DK
dark or bloody stool (melaena) Yes No DK
vomiting of blood (haematemesis) Yes No DK
nose bleed (epistaxis) Yes No DK
vaginal bleeding outside of menstruation Yes No DK Exposure risk Has the patient been in contact with a suspected or confirmed case in the 3 weeks preceding the
onset of the symptoms? Yes No DK If so, specify: Last name ___________________________ First name _____________________
At the time of contact, was the suspected case alive or dead? If dead, date of death ___/___/___ Date of last contact with the case ___/___/___ Was the patient hospitalized or has he/she visited a hospital nearby in the 3 weeks preceding the
onset of the symptoms? Yes No DK If so, where ___________________________ when (dates) ___/___/___ - ___/___/___
Has the patient seen a traditional healer in the 3 weeks preceding the onset of the symptoms?
Yes No DK If so, last name:__________________________ Village _________________ District _____________ Where and when did the consultation take place? Place ____________________ Date: ___/___/___
Has the patient received traditional treatment? Yes No DK If so, specify the type of traditional treatment: ___________________________________ Has the patient attended any funerals in the 3 weeks preceding the onset of the symptoms?
Yes No DK If so, last and first name of the deceased: ________________________________________________ Has the patient had contact with any wild animals in the 3 weeks preceding the onset of the
symptoms? Yes No DK If so, kind of animal ___________________ Locality _________________ Date ___/___/___ Has the patient worked or spent time in a mine/cave inhabited by bat colonies in the 3 weeks
preceding the onset of the symptoms?
Yes No DK If so, name of the mine__________________ Locality _________________ Date ___/___/___ Has the patient travelled in the 3 weeks preceding the onset of the symptoms?
Yes No DK
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If so, where to __________________________ and when ___/___/___ to ___/___/___ Specimen collection Question for the investigation team: after having provided clear and full information to the patient (or in absentia to his/her family or legal guardian) did you obtain his/her express and/or informed consent to the collection of specimens?
Yes No DK
Did you collect specimens? Yes No DK
If so, when ___/___/___ Type of specimen? Blood Urine Saliva Biopsy Stool Transfer of the patient to hospital To be completed ONLY by mobile teams and health centres
Was the patient taken to hospital? Yes No If so, name of hospital __________________________ Date of transport ___/___/___ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Updated information provided from the isolation unit To be completed ONLY by the hospital OR the surveillance office
Was the patient referred to an isolation area? Yes No If so, name of hospital __________________________ Date of hospitalization ___/___/___ Family member(s) accompanying the patient, last and first name _____________________________ Date of discharge ___/___/___ OR Date of death ___/___/___ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Laboratory data
The specimen tested was collected from: Sick person Recovering patient Post-mortem Date taken ___/___/___ Date result received ___/___/___ Lab ID _________________
Type of specimen Blood sample using dry tube Blood using anticoagulants
Saliva Stool / Urine
Biopsy Other, specify ________________
Results Antigen detected pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
IgM serology pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
IgG serology pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
RT-PCR pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
Virus culture pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
Immunohistochemical staining pos neg NA Date ___/___/___
Immunofluorescence pos neg NA Date ___/___/___ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Outcome (to be verified 4 weeks after onset of symptoms)
alive dead in case of death, date ___/___/___ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Final case classification (tick the appropriate box)
Suspected Probable Confirmed Non-case
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Laboratory-related annexes
Annex 6. Guidelines for the collection of clinical specimens during field investigation of outbreaks (WHO/CDS/CSR/EDC/2000/4) http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/surveillance/WHO_CDS_CSR_EDC_2000_4/en/index .html Annex 7. Guidance on regulations for the Transport of Infectious Substances 2011-2012 http://www.who.int/ihr/publications/who_hse_ihr_20100801_en.pdf
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Annex 8. List of laboratories and WHO Collaborating Centres for the diagnosis of Ebola or Marburg VHF Janusz Paweska, Head Special Pathogens Unit WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research for Arborviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers National Institute for Communicable Diseases Private Bag X4 Sandringham 2131 South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 11 386 6382 Fax: +27 (0) 11 882 37 41 E-mail: [email protected] Eric Leroy Senior Researcher Institute for Development Research (IRD) International Centre for Medical Research BP 769 Franceville Gabon Tel: +241 (07) 85 06 13 Fax: +241 67 70 95 E-mail: [email protected] Rosemary Sang, Head Arbovirology and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers Unit Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) P. O. Box 54628 Nairobi Kenya Tel: +254 (02) 2722541 ext 3391 Mobile: +254 (07) 22 759492 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail 2: [email protected] Julius Lutwama Arbovirology Department Uganda Virology Research Institute Plot 52-59 Nakiwogo Road / PO Box 49 Entebbe Uganda Bus: +256 (41) 320 387 Mobile: +256 (75) 650 251 E-mail: [email protected] Amadou Sall, Head WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research for Arborviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers Institut Pasteur, Dakar
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BP 220 Dakar Senegal Tel: +221 (33) 839 92 23 Fax: +221 (33) 839 92 10 Email: [email protected] Pierre Rollin, Chief Viral Special Pathogens Branch WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research for Arborviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1600 Clifton Road Atlanta, Georgia 30333 United States of America - Tel: (1) 404 639 1115 Fax: (1) 404 639 1118 E-mail: [email protected] Gary Kobinger, Head Vector Design and Immunotherapy Special Pathogens Programme WHO Collaborating Centre for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases Detection, Diagnostics, Reference and Research National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada 1015 Arlington Street Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 3R2 Canada Tel: +1 (204) 784 5923 Fax: +1 (204) 789 21 40 E-mail: [email protected] Noël Tordo, Department of Virology Unit of the Biology of Emerging Viral Infections (UBIVE) National Reference Centre WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research for Arborviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers Institut Pasteur, Lyon 21, avenue Tony Garnier 69365 Lyon - Cedex 07 France Tel: +33 (4) 37282440 Fax: +33 (4) 37282441 E-mail: [email protected] Stephan Gunther, Director WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research for Arborviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers Bernhard-Nocht-Institut for Tropical Medicine (BNI)
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Bernhard-Nocht-Str. 74 20359 Hamburg Germany Tel: +49 (40) 42818 930 Fax: +49 (40) 42818 378 E-mail: [email protected]
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Annexes on social and behavioural interventions and communication
Annex 9. Outbreak Communication. Best practices for communicating with the public during an outbreak. (WHO/CDS/2005.32) http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_CDS_2005_32/en/ Annex 10. Communication for Behavioural Impact (COMBI): A toolkit for behavioural and social communication in outbreak response. http://www.who.int/ihr/publications/combi_toolkit_outbreaks/en/index.html
Annex 11. COMBI Toolkit: Field Workbook for COMBI planning steps in outbreak response. http://www.who.int/ihr/publications/combi_toolkit_fieldwkbk_outbreaks/en/index.htm
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Annex 12. Behavioural and Social interventions: a checklist for conducting a rapid situation analysis during suspect Ebola and Marburg events When and how to use this checklist The following checklist can be used during suspect Ebola and Marburg events in the initial investigation stage to obtain critical behavioural, sociocultural, economic, and political information that could either help or hinder implementation of initial control measures and epidemiological investigation activities (Section 4.1.1.). The checklist can be used as a guide and adapted as necessary. The main goal of the analysis is to ensure that the proposed risk reduction behaviour(s) is/are technically sound, feasible, and culturally appropriate. It may be necessary to identify ways in which social mobilization can support the public health objectives of outbreak control and the uptake of risk reduction behaviour(s). Specific activities for groups that might require different communication approaches and messaging may need to be developed. At-risk groups and populations
Can particular targets or beneficiaries be segmented or identified?
For occupational exposure to the disease: e.g. health-care workers, hunters, mineworkers, funeral workers; and traditional healers.
For household or community exposure to the disease and the deceased: e.g. women who care for sick household members, people who are in charge of organizing funerals.
Are there particularly vulnerable, disadvantaged, or high-risk groups that should be reached? Knowledge, awareness, and perceptions
What do you know about the culture and practices of individuals and communities relevant to understanding disease transmission and amplification in the current event?
What do individuals and communities know about the cause and transmission of the disease?
What are the local terms or descriptions of the disease?
What are the individual and community perceptions of the risk posed by the outbreak?
Have individuals and community experienced previous outbreaks? How have they managed them?
What are the messages currently circulating within the community? Information sources, channels, and settings
Where and from whom do people in the community get information and why? Who are the trusted and credible information sources, and what makes them so: e.g. local leaders, religious leaders, health-care staff, and influential people (formal and informal)?
What channels of communication (structures and people) are available to disseminate information?
Which channels are the most accessible, popular, and influential?
What traditional media are used (e.g. traditional media, community meetings, social media)?
What active community networks and structures exist? How are they perceived and used by the local population?
What other organizations are involved in outbreak prevention and control activities within the community?
Which settings are suitable for communication interventions, e.g. clinics, homes, villages?
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Household and community practices
What are the current health-seeking practices and options for health care?
What are the current funeral practices (including burial)?
How are decisions made about seeking health care and funeral organization in communities and households?
Do the existing practices amplify the risk of disease spread? Which beliefs and values support them?
Are there existing practices that reduce risk, e.g. hand-washing, cooking food thoroughly? Which beliefs and values support them?
Sociocultural, economic, and environmental context
Are there social and political tensions that could affect the adoption of risk reduction practices?
Do people have access to sufficient resources to implement the risk reduction practices (e.g. health care, funeral ceremony)?
Do they have access to clean water?
Are health services available and accessible?
Is it difficult to transport sick people to clinics or hospitals?
Are there traditional beliefs and social norms that might prevent people from implementing risk reduction practices?
Are there traditional beliefs and social norms that might favour implementation of risk reduction practices?
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Annex 13. Contribution of medical anthropology to Ebola and Marburg viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak control Text prepared by Alain Epelboin1, Asiya Odugleh-Kolev2 and Pierre Formenty2
1. National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and National Natural History Museum (MNHN), Paris, France 2. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
In the Ebola and Marburg virus epidemics that have occurred in Africa, anthropologists have been part of the international response teams at various levels: during epidemiological investigations and surveillance activities; supporting patient and family care; helping organize safe burials; dialoguing with traditional practitioners; and advising on social sensitization and mobilization activities. In public health in general and especially during epidemic control efforts, there are always two extremes whose relative importance varies with the circumstances: a coercive authoritarian approach and an empathic approach. The coercive approach has a tendency to consider only the viruses and the organs, anonymous individuals, or communities, whose opinion matters little. The empathetic approach highlights the specificities of persons and populations, striving to benefit the largest number of people – privileges usually reserved for family, relatives, and friends. Medical anthropology contributes to the success of epidemic control efforts in a number of fields:
By gaining better knowledge of disease transmission chains;
By identifying the psychologically, socially, and culturally diverse behaviours of local populations and proposing appropriate interventions;
By confronting the rumours and the widespread fear generated by Ebola or Marburg epidemics; and
By giving interventions a human face, finding a balance between the authoritarian enforcement of sanitary measures and empathic approaches.
A) Gaining better knowledge of disease transmission chains In 11 of the 17 Ebola epidemics reported to WHO, there were no doubts regarding the epidemiological chain of transmission. The following steps were documented, in chronological order:
high-mortality epizootic affecting gorillas or chimpanzees;
group of hunters killing an infected animal or recovering an infected animal carcass;
several days later, one member of the group becomes ill, often the one who carried or butchered the game;
infection of the patient's companion, through close contact with infected body fluids;
infection of persons physically or psychologically close to the patients who are not discouraged by managing the vomiting, diarrhoea and bleeding (sisters, mother, spouses, family and close-friend caregivers, medical personnel, religious leaders and healers);
infection of others, directly by caregivers or through accidental exposure to infected medical items
spread of the infection in a hospital setting;
infection of individuals responsible for washing the bodies or people touching the corpse as part of a mourning ritual, etc.
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It is difficult to accurately reconstruct the disease transmission chains without ethnographic knowledge related to peoples’ behavior: in their daily life as well as during ceremonies; at home and at work; in the fields, forests or in urban settings; at the traditional healer, the pastor, or medical caregiver. Three months after the Ebola epidemic in Yambio in the Sudan in 2004, an anthropologist specializing in the Azande was instrumental in pinpointing its perplexing origin, namely a baboon found dead in the forest by a Sudanese bank employee who had been hunting across the border in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This information was vital in understanding the origin of the epidemic and thus laying to rest any skeptical, mystical, or political interpretations. During the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2007, an anthropological- epidemiological investigation devised a model involving transmission of the virus from bats directly to people, without the need for nonhuman primate intermediaries. In this case, the focus of the epidemic was located close to a major African river lying along the route of mass migrations of fruit bats. It is possible to bring down more than a dozen bats with a single rifle shot when the bats stop to feed in the daytime on an island in a gallery forest abounding in fruit, not far from some former colonial palm-oil plantations that are now abandoned or only partially exploited. In 2007, a few weeks before the emergence of the virus and during a major seasonal migration of bats, the local population had a plentiful source of meat which apparently gave the Ebola virus the opportunity to pass from animals to people. However, in 6 out of 17 Ebola epidemics, no evidence of human-wild animal contact has ever been proven. Likewise, in the case of Marburg virus, the human-bat contact noted in the index case (European traveller, indigenous minor) was applicable in just 7 out of 9 epidemics. During the 2004- 2005 epidemic in Angola that left 329 people dead, no animal was found to be at the origin of the human infections. Are the uncertainties regarding the origin of the epidemics a reflection on the shortcomings of epidemiological investigations or is the enigmatic natural cycle of the Ebola virus to blame? Our knowledge has increased since the Ebola and Marburg viruses were first discovered, but there are still many uncertainties and unknowns concerning: vaccines; treatment; the virus reservoir; interspecies transmission; acquisition of virulence; different rates of infection and morbidity among persons exposed to the same strain of the virus; and asymptomatic infections, etc. Therefore, anthropologists help to give psychological and social sense to disease transmission chains and the history of the disease, on a case-by-case basis, through familiarity with the affected individuals and societies and through behaviours, mentalities, and local ways and customs, whether explicit or illicit, overt or unspoken. B) Identifying the socioculturally diverse behaviours of local populations and proposing appropriate interventions Several human factors that can contribute to the spread of Ebola and Marburg viruses include the following: - hunting during an epizootic (especially of primates); - consumption of animals found dead in the forest; - community mourning rituals involving a high degree of contact with the body of the deceased; - inadequate training in microbiological hygiene for health-care workers; - shortages of gloves and disinfectant at health facilities; - poor hospital hygiene practices due to underfunding and lack of resources;
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- poor compliance of the population with health instructions, criticism of health instructions or refusal to comply with them, or irrelevance of health instructions to local conditions; - rejection of the virological model in favour of theories involving divine will, the action of nonhuman agents, persons endowed with supernatural powers, or criminal experiments in laboratories; - victims seeking revenge when they note the disappearance of the considerable financial resources mobilized for the epidemic, both from donors and themselves. In this context, the role of an anthropologist is to shift perspectives, break out of ethnocentrism, overcome social distance, juxtapose the culture of the patients with that of the caregivers, and to help the latter understand (although not necessarily approve of) the other's point of view and imagine themselves in the place of the other. In an epidemic, an anthropologist is a “cultural translator”, or spokesperson, for the victims and the wider population, as well as for the caregivers, specifically the subordinate (Red Cross volunteers, community health-care workers) who are not listened to and are badly paid. Very often, an anthropologist reveals the latent emotions and anxieties of the medical and social personnel, whether or not overtly expressed, that pose an obstacle to appropriate action. The role of an anthropologist An anthropologist’s role during an outbreak is to:
establish a dialogue with religious leaders and traditional healers/practitioners;
assess the level of danger represented by non-science-based practices and rituals;
communicate to religious and traditional leaders the need for protective measures;
collaborate, if possible, with traditional healers/practitioners in psychological and social support of their patients;
involve practitioners in community mobilizations and sensitization activities;
decipher materials and symbolic local rules related to contamination and hygiene;
identify various systems for dealing with and treating disease and misfortune;
identify key interlocutors; i.e. opinion makers, religious figures, traditional practitioners, associations; NGOs.
An anthropologist's role is also to establish a dialogue with religious leaders and traditional healers and practitioners, especially those who deny the existence of the virus and its mode of transmission. The level of danger represented by their practices must be assessed (equipment used to perform multiple injections, scarifications, laying-on of hands, purgatives, emetics, etc.), and they must be made aware of the risks to which they expose themselves and their followers. Whatever their beliefs, experience has shown that they willingly accept gifts of disinfectants and gloves and they rapidly learn how to use these items to protect themselves. Depending on the local context, and in accordance with requests from the parties concerned and the customary and institutional authorities, it might be possible to envisage collaboration with traditional practitioners in psychological and social support of their patients. As with other opinion makers, it is important to try to involve these practitioners in community mobilization and sensitization activities. This can be a delicate matter, because without proper judgment there is always a risk of giving prominence to impostors and strengthening the hand of those who deny scientific evidence and explanations. An anthropologist must quickly decipher material and symbolic local rules related to contamination (everyday hygiene, greetings, the treatment of human waste products, uses of and attitudes towards blood, rules of contact with patients, funeral practices, etc.). S/he must understand how this "new" disease and its various symptoms found their place within local medical thinking systems. S/he must rapidly identify the various systems for dealing with and treating diseases and misfortunes, specifically those that exist and operate in situ: family, folk, learned, public and private biomedical,
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ethnic, religious, parascientific, mystical, etc. Finally, s/he must identify key interlocutors; for example, opinion makers, religious figures, traditional practitioners, associations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). These local systems for dealing with diseases not only offer remedies but also widely intelligible explanations regarding the cause of the problem. They also make sense of individual or community misfortune. Supernatural or malevolent aggression, the violation of taboos, failure to respect the social, ecological, or religious order, and even conspiracy theories are always invoked, all with their panoply of associated remedies and rituals. Each system of thought exploits the epidemic to justify the merits of its theories and practices.
The models thus invoked gain in credibility owing to the frequent shortcomings and even negligence of the political, administrative, and health authorities. Moreover, many scientists are unable to criticize their own theories nor does their logic take into account the human factor.
Anthropology, the cousin of clinical and social psychology, can be helpful for understanding individual and collective behaviours which are considered irrational or aberrant from the standpoint of biomedical reasoning, not only in Africa but on other continents too; for example, in France in the Dombes region in 2007 during an outbreak of avian influenza in wild birds. This is because epidemiological, statistical, and genetic explanations do not address the central concerns of the individual and society: why now, why me, and why not someone else? What is the relationship between the various events that affect me, my friends, and my foes? Even with treatments and vaccines, and still more so without them, the biomedical model is just one explanation among others, leaving the field open for all manner of psychological, social, economic, or political use of misfortune, whether conscious or unconscious, overt or unspoken, honest or dishonest. The management of misfortune, biological or otherwise, and of catastrophes, is always a contest of knowledge and power between the proponents of a worldview based on the existence of viruses, microorganisms, and other molecular forms and the adherents of a worldview based on mystical powers that have been inherited or acquired, supernatural beings, evil sorcerers, and divine interventions. It is an ideological and religious confrontation, one between science and parascience. A number of explanatory models coexist in Ebola or Marburg VHF epidemics, but on each occasion there are different nuances, not so much to do with the type of supernatural explanation invoked as with the partisan interests they serve: intra-lineage score-settling, between young and old, with in- laws, between districts and/or villages, between ethnic groups, cults and religions, indigenous people versus foreigners, local versus national officials, Africans versus “Westerners”, political forces versus economic forces, etc. Sociopolitical investigation of the various causality models proposed shows that, consciously or otherwise, they enable their respective adherents to defend particular social structures and partisan interests, whether at the level of the affected family, village, town or region, or in terms of the political and economic authorities at the regional, national, and even international level. The presence of anthropologists makes it possible to anticipate with greater precision the impact of the proposed epidemic control measures, thereby avoiding incomprehension of social and political customs and individual or collective responses to misfortune, particularly with regard to the stigmatization of affected individuals and communities and/or those held responsible for the spread of the epidemic.
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There is a high risk of the authorities rerouting the work of anthropologists for their own ends. Recruiting anthropologists should not be a superficial attempt to listen and engage with communities by avoiding the real underlying problems such as insecurity and poverty. All too often anthropologists are required to provide an immediate return on investment, without giving them sufficient time to carry out their investigations. They are recruited to perform immediate operational work, for example organizing health education sessions, not taking into account local specificities. When their observations compel them to question the methods and management of resources engaged in epidemic control operations, even to reveal dysfunction of national and/or international institutions, their views are often not welcomed. C) Confronting the rumors and the widespread fears generated by Ebola or Marburg epidemics Ebola and Marburg are highly infectious diseases that are fatal for 25-90 % of all patients. The epidemics are usually concentrated over a small geographical area and are of unpredictable onset. They destroy human solidarity by putting the lives of patients' families and caregivers in danger. Death ensues after a brief but serious and painful illness with terrifying symptoms (fever, diarrhoea, vomiting and - most of all - external bleeding). The disease is terrifying for all sections of the community. Public health interventions such as isolation of infected patients and barrier nursing may cause sick family members to be kept hidden and sometimes abandoned in their homes or obliged to flee. Many health-care workers, who may not have been paid for months and have been frightened by the death of their colleagues, may abandon hospitals. Local outbreak control teams are therefore powerless to act pending the arrival of material and human reinforcements from inside the country and overseas (Ministry of Health, Red Cross, WHO, MSF, etc.). The response to Ebola or Marburg epidemics involves drastic health measures that may infringe on individual and collective freedoms, such as: establishment of isolation wards; banning of unsafe burials; banning the consumption of the principal source of protein (bushmeat); and restrictions on gatherings and travel, etc. The isolation of patients in secure areas to avoid hospital-acquired infections among patients and caregivers alike is complex and costly to organize. Safe burials organized without consideration for customary funeral rites, often in the absence of the family, and sometimes in unmarked or even mass graves, can provoke anger in the community. Political and administrative constraints, for example mobilization of financial resources, interpersonal rivalry, different national or international institutions, NGOs, research teams, and laboratories, all complicate the epidemic response effort. And even after the response has finally been organized, these dysfunctional elements persist against a background of scientific uncertainty, difficulties of communication with the poverty-stricken local population, and conflicting political and economic interests. In addition, the local context in which the virus emerges is always one of economic, health, and medical underdevelopment, not to mention, in some countries, the aftermath of armed conflicts. Without mobilization and sensitization efforts tailored to the populations concerned, respect for health measures is at best patchy: there are many ways to get around a ban which may be poorly understood or considered irrelevant, arbitrary, or even discriminatory. Normal “spontaneous” gestures of nonverbal communication – handshakes, touching, sharing drinks or meals, travelling in the same vehicle – are very often prohibited. The security requirements imposed by the risk of virus transmission prompt intervention teams to minimize contact with others
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and to maintain a physical and psychological distance from the population, which merely accentuates the social and cultural distances. Thus, doubts can emerge, voluntarily or involuntarily maintained by certain parties, both as regards the existence of the virus and the real intentions of the health-care workers. The health-care workers’ identity is then merged with that of politicians (who only put in an appearance during election campaigns), religious leaders, traders, forest and mining prospectors, or even the repressive armed forces. In each epidemic, the intervention teams must contend (at the very least) with poor adherence to their instructions, but also with defiance on the part of the population, expressions of verbal hostility, and even physical aggression. They are accused of experimenting on living people or of sorcery, for example when taking blood or tissue specimens from corpses, during laboratory investigations, or at burials. In sub-Saharan Africa, as confirmed by a number of anthropological treatises on AIDS, blood is an important body fluid coveted (symbolically rather than physically) by evil humans and nonhumans and by sorcerers. It is believed that notables and politicians need to acquire blood to obtain riches and maintain their grasp on power. Epidemic response workers thus find themselves unable to resolve a problem using normal concepts or methods. Coercive measures have no effect and the health teams lack the transcultural communication tools to adopt an empathetic intervention. For all these reasons, WHO decided – and was able to convince its national and international partners – to systematically enlist medical anthropologists into the initial international intervention teams during Ebola or Marburg virus epidemics. D) Giving interventions a human face, striking a balance between the authoritarian enforcement of sanitary measures and empathetic approaches based on sensitization and mobilization of individuals and societies An important contribution of anthropology is to seek to promote approaches based on sensitization and mobilization of individuals and societies, taking into account the knowledge and practices of users and endeavouring to secure genuinely informed consent. If they are to be effective, coercive measures must win the consent of those affected; otherwise, they will not be enforceable and will not be enforced. Without having a monopoly, at all stages from reflection to action, the anthropologist ensures respect for people and his family human rights, often put to the second plan because of the emergency. During an Ebola or Marburg epidemic, patients must be isolated at a secure medical facility. When patients or their families refuse to go to hospital or where no such facility exists, it is important to gain the patients’ and their families’ confidence by organizing at home the implementation of measures to control or reduce intra-family transmission and by providing relatives with instructions and proper equipment (gloves, masks, disinfectant, treatments) (Annex 16). When an isolation facility has been set up, it is important to ensure transparency – which does not simply mean prohibiting the use of perimeter screens. Communication should be maintained with the outside world through family visits, telephone, radio, etc. Families should be kept well informed of the condition of their sick relatives. Information about the organization of the isolation facility and the treatment must be communicated to the public so as to dispel all doubt about the risk of hospital-acquired infections and the quality of care being delivered. If the medical team observes that a patient is at the point of death, it must first inform the family and then make provision for funeral rituals, which should be organized in such a way as to avoid
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additional infections, either through contact with the corpse or through family and community gatherings. If mortality is high, mortuary facilities risk being rapidly overwhelmed; in such cases, the burial of corpses in unmarked graves without the family being present could complicate the mourning process and fuel violence that would jeopardize the entire epidemic control operation. It is also likely that survivors, their families, and local medical and social workers will experience post- traumatic stress syndrome. They must bear a double burden: first of all, that imposed by the virus, plus a secondary stigma after the epidemic has passed (accusations of profiteering or – more often – sorcery). Anthropologists are therefore extensively involved at all times and at all levels in sensitization and social mobilization efforts, whether through tailoring channels of communication and messages to the local context or by taking into consideration the views of the target population, specifically those of neglected constituencies such as women and indigenous minorities.
Note: An additional contribution of an anthropologist is to help decision-makers on the behavioural and social interventions subcommittee to design a range of communication materials (paper, audio, video), for example by drawing on digitized databases (scientific articles, drawings, posters, photos and videos of real situations). Please note that an important supplementary input of medical anthropology has been the production of ethnographical videos on safe funeral rites with a human dimension, which have been disseminated during epidemics for the purpose of social mobilization and in the context of ongoing vocational training between epidemics (Annex 33).
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Annexes on clinical management of patients
Annex 14. Hospitalized patients' charter (May 2013) http://www.american-hospital.org/en/your-stay/hospitalized-patients-charter.html
Annex 15. WHO Aide-Memoire. Standard precautions in health care (October 2007) http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/standardprecautions/en/index.html Annex 16. WHO Fact sheet. Waste from health-care activities (No. 253, November 2011) http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs253/en/index.html Annex 17. Interim Infection Prevention and Control Guidance for Care of Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Filovirus Haemorrhagic Fever in Health-Care Settings, with Focus on Ebola. http://www.who.int/entity/csr/resources/who-ipc-guidance-ebolafinal-09082014.pdf
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Annex 18. Transmission risk reduction of filoviruses in home-care settings
1. Introduction The strategy for transmission risk reduction of filoviruses in home-care settings was developed during the Ebola epidemic in Kellé, Republic of the Congo, in 2003 and has been used successfully in subsequent epidemics. The strategy aims at reducing the risk of Ebola and Marburg transmission in home-care settings in families of suspected cases refusing hospitalization. The strategy does not guarantee full protection of family members and is certainly not the best treatment option, but it should always be offered to those families that might otherwise sever all communication with the medical teams, or hide or relocate the patient and thus secretly spread the epidemic. The strategy for transmission risk reduction of filoviruses in the home-care settings should be used in two cases:
1. If the patient (or their family, if the patient is unable to do so) categorically refuses referral to a hospital isolation unit, or
2. If there is no hospital isolation unit. The strategy should be seen as a tool for communicating with families in the hope that they will accept referral to an isolation ward at a later stage. The strategy involves providing personal protective equipment (PPE) (gloves, gowns, masks, buckets, chlorinated water) and training family caregivers. Home-care patients are monitored by a home nurse (chosen by the family) who has been trained in basic disinfection techniques and the use of PPE and has been given vital information about the virus. 2. Explaining the protocol to families or the community Ebola and Marburg are transmitted:
By touching infected animal carcasses or eating infected meat.
By touching infected patients.
Through contact with the blood, vomit, stool, or urine of the patient.
Via droplets emitted by the patient while talking, coughing, or vomiting.
Through contact with materials such as clothing and bedding that have been contaminated by the body fluids of the patient.
All direct contact with infected patients is dangerous and should be avoided. Hospital referral of the patient is preferable because:
The patient has a better chance of survival when treated by specialized doctors trained in the clinical management of Ebola and Marburg.
Infection of relatives and home caregivers is avoided. If hospital referral is not an option, the information below helps reduce disease transmission to other members of the household or the community. While not precluding it entirely, the information below can help to significantly reduce the risk of transmission in the home. To reduce the risk of transmission, the following general recommendations should be followed:
Kill Ebola and Marburg viruses using chlorine bleach solutions prepared, as described below in item 3.
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Wear gloves or use towels soaked in bleach to avoid direct contact with the patient’s body fluids: blood, vomit, stool, or urine.
Put on a mask or use a dry towel to protect the nose and mouth from droplets emitted by the patient.
Avoid contact with body fluids by staying behind or to the side of the patient while giving care. 3. Protocol for transmission risk reduction in the home To be used by caregivers only. The bleach solution must be at a concentration of at least 2.5%. Care and cleaning: 1. Select one person to look after the patient. This person should also prepare the bleach solution.
To prepare the bleach solution, mix 1 part concentrated bleach with 5 parts water (fill a cup with the bleach, empty the cup into a bucket and refill the cup with water five times, adding the water to the bucket).
2. The bleach solution loses its effectiveness after 24 hours, so fresh solutions must be prepared every morning.
3. For cleaning blood stains, vomit, stool, or urine: Pour the bleach solution on to the blood, etc. Soak a large towel in the bleach solution. Use that soaked towel to clean off the blood. Place the soiled towel in a bucket and cover with bleach solution. Soiled towels must be soaked in a bucket filled with bleach solution for at least one hour.
After one hour, the towels may be washed with soap and reused once they are dry. 4. Never put bleach or bleach solution in the patient’s mouth or eyes. 5. The community must build a separate latrine that is used only by the patient. 6. Used and soiled bleach must be emptied into the latrine used by the patient. 7. Always stay behind or to the side of the patient; if possible, never face the patient. 8. Use bleach-soaked towels for carrying or moving the patient. In the event of the patient’s death: 9. Use bleach-soaked towels for taking the dead body to the grave or coffin. 10. Clean the room used by the patient with bleach. 11. Burn or bury all objects that cannot be cleaned. In particular, destroy the mattress used by the
patient. Always wash hands with bleach solution after touching the patient or their vomit, blood, stool, urine, etc. If the bleach irritates your hands, stop handling bleach and hand over the care of the patient to someone else. Everyone in the community must wash hands with clean water and soap before eating. The same water should not be used twice. Use clean water for each person.
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Annex 19. Protocol for the reintegration of returning patients into their families and their community The successful reintegration of survivors requires in-depth dialogue with the families and village chiefs prior to their return to the community. Their return to the community means that they were successfully treated and are no longer infectious and will not spread the disease to family members or others within the community. 1. Hospital discharge of Ebola or Marburg patients The doctor in charge of the care unit must examine the patient before declaring them fit to leave hospital. Once the laboratory diagnostic tests shows that antibodies are developed and they no longer have an active infection, the doctor can release the patient. Recovering patients are no longer contagious to others and their return home or transfer to a general hospital is safe. Upon discharge, the patient should be given a medical certificate stating that they no longer pose a risk to relatives or neighbours. Before the patient leaves the care unit:
The cleaning staff must clean and disinfect all the patient’s personal belongings.
Blankets and sheets MUST NOT be taken away by the patient. The care unit must provide the patient with new blankets and sheets if they brought their own to the hospital.
The relatives must provide clothes for the patient to wear when leaving the care unit. The patient’s clothes should be cleaned using appropriate infection control procedures at the hospital and will be returned to them the following day.
On discharge, patients must follow the doctor’s instructions. 2. Once the patient is back home After recovery, the patient may feel tired for a period of up to two months. It is important that the patient:
Get plenty of rest.
Eat a varied diet (for example bread, vegetables, fruit, meat, beans).
Drink plenty of water to rehydrate. If the patient becomes ill, especially if they have a fever, they should go to a health centre immediately to have a check-up and receive treatment. Warning: Male patients must be informed that their sperm may still be contagious for a period of three months after leaving hospital and Ebola or Marburg may be transmitted during sexual intercourse. During that period, the patient must either abstain from sex or use condoms. The medical team must provide a sufficient supply of condoms. This warning must be stated on the medical certificate issued on release. The patient returning home may be given certain items (food, bedding, clothes, lamps, machetes) to compensate them for the loss of personal belongings that were destroyed during disinfection and to help them to rebuild their life. Before implementing this strategy, careful evaluation is in order, because these donations may stigmatize the patient and generate envy.
Experience in the field has shown that survivors of Ebola and Marburg are often stigmatized. Intensive public education campaigns are needed to reduce stigma. For measures to address stigmatization, see Annex 21.
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Annexes on psychosocial management
Annex 20. Mental health in emergencies
http://www.who.int/mental_health/emergencies/MSDMER03_01/en/
Annex 21. IASC Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial support in Emergency settings http://www.who.int/hac/network/interagency/news/iasc_guidelines_mental_health_checklist.pdf Annex 22. Mental health and psychological support in emergency settings: what should humanitarian health actors know? http://www.who.int/mental_health/emergencies/what_humanitarian_health_actors_should_know. pdf Annex 23. Psychological first aid: Guide for field workers http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2011/9789241548205_eng.pdf
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Annexes on research ethics Annex 24. Medical Ethics Manual – World Medical Association http://www.wma.net/en/30publications/30ethicsmanual/index.html Annex 25. Research Ethics in International Epidemic Response. WHO Technical Consultation http://www.who.int/ethics/gip_research_ethics_.pdf Annex 26. Ethical considerations in developing a public health response to pandemic influenza http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_CDS_EPR_GIP_2007_2c.pdf Annex 27. Guidance on ethics of tuberculosis prevention, care and control http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241500531_eng.pdf Annex 28. Model guidelines for writing informed consent documents http://www.cerul.ulaval.ca/doc/Guide_rediger_formulaire_consentement.pdf Annex 29. Website of the interactive Health Research Web (HRWeb) platform http://www.healthresearchweb.org/en/home Annex 30. Training and Resources in Research Ethics Evaluation site http://elearning.trree.org/index.php?lang=en_utf8 Annex 31. The Siracusa Principles on the Limitation and Derogation Provisions in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights http://www.refworld.org/cgi- bin/texis/vtx/rwmain?page=search&docid=4672bc122&skip=0&query=Siracusa Principles
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Annexes on logistics Annex 32. Description of disposable, nonperishable personnel protective equipment for indoor utilization in health-care facilities (Module PPE A: Basic Module of Personnel Protective Equipment)
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Annex 33. Description of heavy-duty personnel protective equipment associated with Basic Module PPE A, for outdoor utilization during disinfection of contaminated areas, objects, and cloth, and when dealing with dead bodies and burials (Module PPE B: Heavy Duty Personnel Protective Equipment)
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Annex 34. Logistics assessment form Logistics assessment from - Pages 1/8
ARO LOGISTICS Logistics Assessment form
I. GENERAL INFORMATION
Name:
Function:
Contact details (telephone, email, etc.)
Date of Survey:
Country:
Province/Region /Department
District / Area / Zone / Centre
Name of formal/informal settlement
Number of households (approx.)
Total Population: <5 years:
GPS coordinates (if available):
Main economic activities (farming/trading/mining, etc.)
Type of site:
1. Village 2. Camp/ Settlement
3. Town 4. Slum 5.Other
1.Christians No. churches
2.Muslims No. mosques
3.Other If other, specify: No. places of worship
Reference contacts: (Main contact details)
WHO contact and function
MOH focal point
Other influential local leader(s): political/religious
Map availability:
Detailed area map available: Yes No Scale:
Source of map:
Climate/weather conditions
Period Type of weather Average temperature Comments
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 2/8
Money and Cash access.
Banking System ATM machine Cash Changer Currencies available
Notes:
II. TRANSPORT
Air Road Train Boat (sea) Boat(river) Other
capital > province
province > district
district > operations site/zone
Means of transport available in the area (for hire, loaned, MOH, others)
Car Motorbike Boat Pick-up Truck Plane/ helicopter
Animals
Hire / rent
On loan from
Purchase
MOSS yes/no
(Please enter data, including number of available vehicles, type, an average of costing, etc., in the notes part.)
Local carburant availability:
Diesel Kerosene Petrol Wood Coal Charcoal Others
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 3/8
Notes on costing:
>Car / pick-up / truck /motorbike………………….= US$ per day /week/month. >Boat………………………………………………………….= US$ per hour / day / week / month >Plane/ helicopter…………………………………………..= US$ per hour / day >Animals……………………………………………………..= US$ per day / week.
Is there need for 4WD vehicles? Yes No
Air transport Landing zones
Airstrip for planes Helicopter landing zone
Nature / description
Size and dimensions (in meters)
Orientation (GPS coordinates)
Quality estimation
Good
Fair
Bad
Impossible to use
Good
Fair
Bad
Impossible to use
Airport authorities on the ground
Staff available
Operation hours / days?
IFS / ILS?
Airplane carburant available locally
Yes No Yes No
Security of the airstrip (population, animals, etc.)
General comments:
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 4/8
III. TELECOMUNICATION SYSTEMS
Telephone network operators: Fixed / Mobile / Both
Mobile telephone network:
Roaming services for cell phone and Blackberry
Yes No
Local purchase of cell phone SIM cards: Yes No
Possibility to locally purchase credits (units) Yes No
Local Internet network available: Yes No
Radio Networks (VHF/HF):
VHF/UHF Network available (for UN use) Yes No
HF Network available (for UN use): Yes No
General Recommendations:
IV. SECURITY:
General situation Good Fair Bad
Armed people present Yes No
Military activity Yes No
Populations hostility Yes No
Environmental threats Yes No
If you ticked "yes" to any of the above, please briefly explain in the box below:
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 5/8
V. LOCAL AUTHORITIES & PARTNERS
Local health authorities:
Contact name: Position Telephone number(s) E-mail address
UN agencies present in the area:
Agency Contact person Telephone number(s) E-mail address
NGO and other partners present in the area and their area of work
Name Contact person Telephone number(s) E-mail address
Local authorities
Contact Name Title Telephone number(s) E-mail number
VI. ACCOMMODATION AND TEAM LIFE
Hotel House Camping Others
Rooms, hotels:
Price (average, in US$) Comfort and Hygiene Security
Good Fair Bad Good Bad
Possibility of holding an office Yes No
Internet connection available Yes No
Type: Wi-Fi Ethernet
Houses (rentals)
Price (average, in US$) Comfort and Hygiene Security
Good Fair Bad Good Bad
Possibility of renting an office Yes No
Energy (Local electrical system)
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 6/8
Voltage 110-125V 220-230V 50HZ 60HZ
Type of plug:
European (A) UK (B) USA (C) Australia/NZ (D) India/Pakistan/South America (E)
Availability of electricity
24/24 h Some hours (h/day) None Generator
Local market supplies
Food supply:
Available Limited Safe Imported
Access to safe water: Yes No
Type: Town system (piped) Bottled Other
Water treatment products in local market: Yes No
Type: HTH NaDCC Aquatabs Blitch Others
Construction materials available: Yes No
Type of materials (bricks/timber/concrete/etc.):
VII. HEALTH STRUCTURES AND INFECTION CONTROL
Health structure in place
Description: (if possible, attach a sketch)
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 7/8
Space for isolation ward in place:
Present Yes No If no, possibility to set up: Yes No
Description: (add a sketch, if possible)
Justification:
What are the local funeral practices?
Level of personal precautions taken in the funeral practices:
Appropriate Basic (incomplete) Notion (not in place) None
Does Health Staff have access to PPE? Yes No
Morgue: In good shape In bad shape Inexistent
Need of a rapid assessment for improvement? Yes No
Nearest Referral Hospital/Laboratory
Name of the institution Public/Private Distance to reach (km) Name of focal point
VIII. SUPPLY CHAIN AND STOCKS
Space available for stocks: Yes No
Characteristics:
Space (in m2) Security Ventilation Accessibility
Cold chain available: Yes No
Type of refrigerator/freezer?
Capacity in litres:
PPE stocks available: Yes No
Stock of drugs available? Yes No
Stock of medical items available? Yes No
Stock pharmaceutical items available? Yes No
General comments:
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Logistics assessment from - Pages 8/8
IX. ANY OTHER ADDITIONAL ASPECTS AND COMMENTS:
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Annexes containing Ebola and Marburg subject-specific bibliographies Annex 35. Ebola and Marburg bibliography, relevant videos, and web sites General information about Ebola and Marburg Feldmann H, Geisbert TW. Ebola haemorrhagic fever. Lancet, 2011; 377: 849-862. Feldmann H. Marburg hemorrhagic fever—the forgotten cousin strikes. N Engl J Med, 2006; 355(9): 866-869. Hartman AL, Towner JS, Nichol ST. Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever. Clin Lab Med., 2010; 30(1): 161-177. Leroy E, Baize S, Gonzalez JP. Les fièvres hémorragiques à virus Ebola et Marburg : l'actualité des Filovirus [Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers: the latest on filoviruses]. Med Trop, 2011; 71(2): 111-121. Wahl-Jensen V, Peters CJ, Jahrling PB, Feldmann H, Kuhn Jh. Filovirus infections. In: Guerrant RL; Walker DH, Weller PF. Tropical infectious diseases: principles, pathogens and practice. 3rd ed. Philadelphia, PA, Elsevier, JAMA, 2011; pp. 483-491. Epidemic control: field epidemiology, prevention and control, and surveillance Allarangar Y, Kone ML, Formenty P, Libama F, Boumandouki P, Woodfill CJ, Sow I, Duale S, Alemu W, Yada A. Lessons learned during active epidemiological surveillance of Ebola and Marburg viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa. East Afr J Public Health, 2010; 7(1): 30-36. Ebola epidemics (in chronological order, 1976-2008) CDC, Known cases and outbreaks of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, in chronological order, 2011. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/resources/outbreak-table.html World Health Organization. Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Sudan, 1976. Bull World Health Organ, 1978; 56 (2): 271-293. World Health Organization. Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Zaïre, 1976. Bull World Health Organ, 1978; 56(2): 247-270. Pattyn SR. Ebola virus haemorrhagic fever. Amsterdam: Elsevier/North-Holland Biomedical Press, The Netherlands, 1978. (http://www.enivd.de/EBOLA/Frame.htm) Heymann DL, Weisfeld JS, Webb PA, Johnson KM, Cairns T, Berquist H. Ebola hemorrhagic fever: Tandala, Zaire, 1977-1978. J Infect Dis., 1980; 142(3): 372-376. Baron RC, McCormick JB, Zubeir OA. Ebola virus disease in southern Sudan: hospital dissemination and intrafamilial spread. Bull World Health Organ, 1983; 61(6): 997-1003. Le Guenno B, Formenty P, Wyers M, Gounon P, Walker F, Boesch C. Isolation and partial characterization of a new strain of Ebola virus. Lancet, 1995; 345: 1271-1274.
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Georges AJ, Leroy EM, Renaut AA, Benissan CT, Nabias RJ, Ngoc MT, Obiang PI, Lepage JP, Bertherat EJ, Bénoni DD, Wickings EJ, Amblard JP, Lansoud-Soukate JM, Milleliri JM, Baize S, Georges-Courbot MC. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Gabon, 1994-1997: epidemiologic and health control issues. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S65-S75. Khan AS, Tshioko FK, Heymann DL, Le Guenno B, Nabeth P, Kerstiëns B, Fleerackers Y, Kilmarx PH, Rodier GR, Nkuku O, Rollin PE, Sanchez A, Zaki SR, Swanepoel R, Tomori O, Nichol ST, Peters CJ, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, Ksiazek TG. The reemergence of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S76-S86. World Health Organization – Outbreak of Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Uganda, August 2000 – January 2001. Weekly epidemiological record, 2001; 76: 41–48. Okware SI, Omaswa FG, Zaramba S, Opio A, Lutwama JJ, Kamugisha J, Rwaguma EB, Kagwa P, Lamunu M. An Outbreak of Ebola in Uganda. Trop Med Int Health, 2002; 7(12): 1068-1075. World Health Organization – Outbreak(s) of Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Congo and Gabon, October 2001–July 2002. Weekly epidemiological record, 2003; 78: 223–228. Nkoghe D, Formenty P, Leroy EM, Nnegue S, Edou SY, Ba JI, Allarangar Y, Cabore J, Bachy C, Andraghetti R, de Benoist AC, Galanis E, Rose A, Bausch D, Reynolds M, Rollin P, Choueibou C, Shongo R, Gergonne B, Koné LM, Yada A, Roth C, Mve MT. Plusieurs épidémies de fièvre hémorragique due au virus Ebola au Gabon, d’octobre 2001 à avril 2002 [Miscellaneous hemorrhagic fever epidemics due to Ebola virus in Gabon, October 2001-April 2002] Bull Soc Pathol Exot, 2005 ; 98(3): 224-229. Formenty P, Libama F, Epelboin A, Allarangar Y, Leroy E, Moudzeo H, Tarangonia P, Molamou A, Lenzi M, Ait-Ikhlef K, Hewlett B, Roth C, Grein T. La riposte à l’épidémie de fièvre hémorragique à virus Ebola en République du Congo, 2003 : une nouvelle stratégie? [The response to Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Republic of the Congo 2003: a new strategy?] Med Trop, 2003 ; 63: 291-295. Boumandouki P, Formenty P, Epelboin A, Campbell P, Atsangandoko C, Allarangar Y, Leroy EM, Kone ML, Molamou A, Dinga-Longa O, Salemo A, Kounkou R Y, Mombouli V, Ibara J R, Gaturuku P, Nkunku S, Lucht A, Feldmann H. Prise en charge des malades et des défunts lors de l’épidémie de fièvre hémorragique à virus Ebola à Mbandza et Mbomo d’octobre à décembre 2003 au Congo [Management of patients and fatalities during the Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemic at Mbandza and Mbomo, Republic of Congo, October-December 2003]. Bull Soc Pathol Exot, 2005; 98(3): 218-223. Formenty P, Epelboin A, Allarangar Y, Libama F, Boumandouki P, Koné L, Molamou A, Gami N, Mombouli JV, Martinez MG, Ngampo S. Séminaire de formation des formateurs et d’analyse des épidémies de fièvre hémorragique due au virus Ebola en Afrique centrale de 2001 à 2004 [Training seminar for trainers and analysis of Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Central Africa 2001-2004]. Bull Soc Pathol Exot, 2005; 98(3): 244-254. Onyango CO, Opoka ML, Ksiazek TG, Formenty P, Ahmed A, Tukei PM, Sang RC, Ofula VO, Konongoi SL, Coldren RL, Grein T, Legros D, Bell M, De Cock KM, Bellini WJ, Towner JS, Nichol ST, Rollin PE. Laboratory diagnosis of Ebola hemorrhagic fever during an outbreak in Yambio, Sudan, 2004. J Infect Dis., 2007; 196 Suppl. 2: S193-S198. Nkoghe D, Kone ML, Yada A, Leroy E. A limited outbreak of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in Etoumbi, Republic of Congo, 2005. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2011; 105: 466-472.
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Leroy EM, Epelboin A, Mondonge V, Pourrut X, Gonzalez JP, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, Formenty P. Human Ebola outbreak resulting from direct exposure to fruit bats in Luebo, Democratic Republic of Congo, 2007. VectorBorne and Zoonotic Dis, 2009; 9(6): 723-728. Towner JS, Sealy TK, Khristova ML, Albarino CG, Conlan S, Reeder SA. Newly discovered Ebola virus associated with hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Uganda. PLoS Pathog., 2008; 4(11): e1000212. MacNeil A, Farnon EC, Wamala J, Okware S, Cannon DL, Reed Z, Towner JS, Tappero JW, Lutwama J, Downing R, Nichol ST, Ksiazek TG, Rollin PE. Proportion of deaths and clinical features in Bundibugyo Ebolavirus infection, Uganda. Emerg Infect Dis, 2010; 16(12): 1969-1972. World Health Organization – Ebola Reston in pigs and humans, Philippines. Weekly epidemiological record, 2009; 84(7): 49-50. Marburg epidemics (in chronological order, 1967-2008) CDC, Known cases and outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever, in chronological order, 2010. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/marburg/resources/outbreak-table.html Martini GA, Siegert R. Marburg virus disease. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, 1971. Conrad JL, Isaacson M, Smith EB, et al. Epidemiologic investigation of Marburg virus disease, Southern Africa, 1975. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 1978; 27(6): 1210-1215. Smith DH, Johnson BK, Isaacson M, et al. Marburg-virus disease in Kenya. Lancet, 1982; 319(8276): 816-820. Johnson ED, Johnson BK, Silverstein D, et al. Characterization of a new Marburg virus isolated from a 1987 fatal case in Kenya. Arch Virol Suppl., 1996; 11: 101-114. Bausch DG, Nichol ST, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, et al. International Scientific and Technical Committee for Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever Control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Marburg hemorrhagic fever associated with multiple genetic lineages of virus. N Engl J Med, 2006; 355(9): 909- 919. Towner JS, Khristova ML, Sealy TK, et al. Marburgvirus genomics and association with a large hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Angola. J. Virol., 2006; 80(13): 6497-6516. Adjemian J, Farnon EC, Tschioko F, et al. Outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever among miners in Kamwenge and Ibanda Districts, Uganda, 2007. J Infect Dis., 2011; 204 Suppl. 3: S796-S799. Timen A, Koopmans MP, Vossen AC, et al. Response to imported case of Marburg hemorrhagic fever, the Netherlands. Emerg Infect Dis, 2009; 15(8): 1171-1175. CDC. Imported case of Marburg hemorrhagic fever - Colorado, 2008. MMWR, 2009; 58(49): 1377- 1381. Laboratory diagnosis Drosten C, Kümmerer BM, Schmitz H, Günther S. Molecular diagnostics of viral hemorrhagic fevers. Antiviral Res., 2003; 57(1-2): 61-87.
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Formenty P, Leroy EM, Epelboin A, et al. Detection of Ebola virus in oral fluid specimens during outbreaks of Ebola virus Hemorrhagic Fever in the Republic of Congo. Clin Infect Dis., 2006; 42(11): 1521-1526. Grolla A, Lucht A, Dick D, et al. Laboratory diagnosis of Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever. Bull Soc Pathol Exot, 2005; 98(3): 205-209. Grolla A, Jones SM, Fernando L, et al. The use of a mobile laboratory unit in support of patient management and epidemiological surveillance during the 2005 Marburg Outbreak in Angola. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2011; 5(5): e1183. Ksiazek TG, Rollin PE, Williams AJ, et al. Clinical virology of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (EHF) : virus, virus antigen, and IgG and IgM antibody findings among EHF patients in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S177-S187. Leroy EM, Baize S, Lu CY, et al. Diagnosis of Ebola haemorrhagic fever by RT-PCR in an epidemic setting. J Med Virol, 2000; 60(4): 463–467. Lucht A, Formenty P, Feldmann H, et al. Development of an immunofiltration-based antigen detection assay for rapid diagnosis of Ebola virus infection. J Infect Dis., 2007; 196 Suppl. 2: S184-S192. MacNeil A, Farnon EC, Morgan OW, et al. Filovirus outbreak detection and surveillance: lessons from Bundibugyo. J Infect Dis., 2011; 204 Suppl. 3: S761-S767. MacNeil A, Reed Z, Rollin PE. Serologic cross-reactivity of human IgM and IgG antibodies to five species of Ebola virus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2011; 5(6): e1175. Rollin PE, Nichol ST, Zaki S, Ksiazek TG. Arenaviruses and filoviruses. In: Manual of Clinical Microbiology, 10th ed. ASM Press, Washington, 2011; Chpt 95: 1514-1529. Saijo M, Niikura M, Ikegami T, et al. Laboratory diagnostic systems for Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers developed with recombinant proteins. Clin Vaccine Immunol., 2006; 13(4): 444- 451. Towner JS, Rollin PE, Bausch DG, et al. Rapid diagnosis of Ebola hemorrhagic fever by reverse transcription-PCR in an outbreak setting and assessment of patient viral load as a predictor of outcome. J. Virol., 2004; 78(8): 4330-4341. Zaki SR, Shieh WJ, Greer PW, et al. A novel immunohistochemical assay for the detection of Ebola virus in skin: implications for diagnosis, spread, and surveillance of Ebola hemorrhagic fever. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S36-S47. Behavioural and social interventions De Roo A, Ado B, Rose B, et al. Survey among survivors of the 1995 Ebola epidemic in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo: their feelings and experiences. Trop Med Int Health, 1998; 3: 883–885. Epelboin A, Formenty P, Bahuchet S. Du virus au sorcier. Approche anthropologique de l’épidémie de fièvre hémorragique à virus Ebola (district de Kellé, Cuvette ouest, février 2003, Congo) [From virus to
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sorcerer. An anthropological approach to Ebola hemorrhagic fever (Kellé district, West basin, February 2003, Republic of Congo)] . Canopée, 2003; 24: 5–6.
Epelboin A, Formenty P, Anoko J, Allarangar Y. Humanisation and informed consent for people and populations during responses to VHF in central Africa (2003-2008). In: Humanitarian Stakes N°1, Infection control measures and individual rights: an ethical dilemna for medical staff. Edited by JM Biquet, MSF, Geneva (Switzerland), 2008; p. 25-37.
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Clinical management of patients Bossi P, Tegnell A, Baka A, et al. Bichat guidelines for the clinical management of haemorrhagic fever viruses and bioterrorism-related haemorrhagic fever viruses. Euro Surveill., 2004; 9(12). Bwaka MA, Bonnet MJ, Calain P, et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo: clinical observations in 103 patients. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S1-S7. Formenty P, Hatz C, Le Guenno B, et al. Human infection due to Ebola virus, subtype Côte d’Ivoire: clinical and biologic presentation. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S48-S53. Kibadi K, Mupapa K, Kuvula K, et al. Late ophthalmologic manifestations in survivors of the 1995 Ebola virus epidemic in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S13-S14. Kortepeter MG, Bausch DG, Bray M. Basic clinical and laboratory features of filoviral hemorrhagic fever. J Infect Dis., 2011; 204 Suppl. 3: S810-S816. Mupapa K, Mukundu W, Bwaka MA, et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever and pregnancy. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S11-S12. Mupere E, Kaducu OF, Yoti Z. Ebola haemorrhagic fever among hospitalised children and adolescents in northern Uganda: epidemiologic and clinical observations. Afr Health Sci., 2001; 1(2): 60-65. Ndambi R, Akamituna P, Bonnet MJ, et al. Epidemiologic and clinical aspects of the Ebola virus epidemic in Mosango, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S8- S10. Richards GA, Murphy S, Jobson R, et al. Unexpected Ebola virus in a tertiary setting: clinical and epidemiologic aspects [see comments]. Crit Care Med., 2000; 28(1): 240-244. Rowe AK, Bertolli J, Khan AS, et al. Clinical, virologic, and immunologic follow-up of convalescent Ebola hemorrhagic fever patients and their household contacts, Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S28-S35. Sadek RF, Khan AS, Stevens G, et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995: determinants of survival. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S24-S27. Sanchez A, Lukwiya M, Bausch D, et al. Analysis of human peripheral blood samples from fatal and nonfatal cases of Ebola (Sudan) hemorrhagic fever: cellular responses, virus load, and nitric oxide levels. J. Virol., 2004; 78(19): 10370-10377. New treatments and vaccines Borio L, Inglesby T, Peters CJ, et al, for the Working Group on Civilian Biodefense. Hemorrhagic fever viruses as biological weapons. JAMA, 2002; 287(18): 2391-2405. Bukreyev A, Rollin PE, Tate MK, et al. Successful topical respiratory tract immunization of primates against Ebola virus. J. Virol., 2007; 81(12): 6379-6388. Falzarano D, Geisbert TW, Feldmann H. Progress in filovirus vaccine development: evaluating the potential for clinical use. Expert Rev Vaccines, 2011; 10(1): 63-77.
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Geisbert TW, Lee AC, Robbins M, et al. Postexposure protection of non-human primates against a lethal Ebola virus challenge with RNA interference: a proof-of-concept study. Lancet, 2010; 375, No. 9729: 1896-1905. Günther S, Feldmann H, Geisbert TW, et al. Management of accidental exposure to Ebola virus in the biosafety level 4 laboratory, Hamburg, Germany. J. Infect. Dis., 2011; 204 Suppl. 3: S785-S790. Hensley LE, Mulangu S, Asiedu C, et al. Demonstration of cross-protective vaccine immunity against an emerging pathogenic Ebolavirus Species. PLoS Pathog., 2010; 6(5): e1000904. Jones SM, Feldmann H, Stroher U, et al. Live attenuated recombinant vaccine protects nonhuman primates against Ebola and Marburg viruses. Nat Med., 2005; 11(7): 786-790. Kobinger GP, Feldmann H, Zhi Y, et al. Chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine protects against Zaire Ebola virus. Virology, 2006; 346(2): 394-401. Mupapa K, Massamba M, Kibadi K, et al. Treatment of Ebola hemorrhagic fever with blood transfusions from convalescent patients. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S18-S23. Pratt WD, Wang D, Nichols DK, et al. Protection of nonhuman primates against two species of Ebola virus infection with a single complex adenovirus vector. Clin Vaccine Immunol., 2010; 17(4): 572-581. Qiu X, Alimonti JB, Melito PL, et al. Characterization of Zaire ebolavirus glycoprotein-specific monoclonal antibodies. Clin Immunol., 2011; 141(2): 218-227. Qiu X, Audet J, Wong G, et al. Successful treatment of ebola virus-infected cynomolgus macaques with monoclonal antibodies. Sci Transl Med. 2012 Jun 13;4(138):138ra81. Richardson JS, Dekker JD, Croyle MA, Kobinger GP. Recent advances in Ebolavirus vaccine development. Hum Vaccin., 2010; 6(6): 439-449. Warfield KL, Swenson DL, Olinger GG, et al. Ebola virus-like particle-based vaccine protects nonhuman primates against lethal Ebola virus challenge. J Infect Dis., 2007; 196 Suppl. 2: S430-S437. Ecology and natural history of filoviruses Allela L, Boury O, Pouillot R, et al. Ebola virus antibody prevalence in dogs and human risk. Emerg Infect Dis, 2005; 11(3): 385-390. Barrette RW, Metwally SA, Rowland JM, et al. Discovery of swine as a host for the Reston ebolavirus. Science, 2009; 325(5937): 204-206. Formenty P, Boesch C, Wyers M, et al. Ebola virus outbreak among wild chimpanzees living in a rain forest of Côte d’Ivoire. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S120-S126. Kobinger GP, Leung A, Neufeld J, et al. Replication, pathogenicity, shedding, and transmission of Zaire ebolavirus in pigs. J Infect Dis., 2011; 204(2): 200-208. Leirs H, Mills JN, Krebs JW, et al. Search for the Ebola Virus reservoir in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo: reflections on a vertebrate collection. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S155- S163.
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Leroy EM, Rouquet P, Formenty P, et al. Multiple Ebola virus transmission events and rapid decline of Central African wildlife. Science, 2004; 303(5656): 387–390. Leroy EM, Kumulungui B, Pourrut X, et al. Fruit bats as reservoirs of Ebola virus. Nature, 2005; 438: 575–576. Pourrut X, Kumulungui B, Wittmann T, et al. The natural history of Ebola virus in Africa. Microbes Infect., 2005; 7(7-8): 1005-1014. Pourrut X, Souris M, Towner JS, et al. Large serological survey showing cocirculation of Ebola and Marburg viruses in Gabonese bat populations, and a high seroprevalence of both viruses in Rousettus aegyptiacus. BMC Infect Dis., 2009; 9: 159. Reiter P, Turell M, Coleman R, et al. Field investigations of an outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995: Arthropod Studies. J Infect Dis., 1999; 179 Suppl. 1: S148-S154. Swanepoel R, Leman PA, Burt FJ, et al. Experimental inoculation of plants and animals with Ebola virus. Emerg Infect Dis, 1996; 2(4): 321–325. Swanepoel R, Smit SB, Rollin PE, et al. Studies of reservoir hosts for Marburg virus. Emerg Infect Dis, 2007; 13(12): 1847–1851. Towner JS, Amman BR, Sealy TK, et al. Isolation of genetically diverse Marburg viruses from Egyptian fruit bats. PLoS Pathog., 2009; 5(7): e1000536. Ethnographical documentaries and videos Brunnquell F, Epelboin A, Formenty P. Ebola : ce n'est pas une maladie pour rire [Ebola no laughing matter]. Congo, 51 min 28, 2007, CAPA Production. http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/0640_CGebolarireangl.rm Epelboin A, Anoko JN, Formenty P, Marx A, Lestage D. Marburg en Angola [Marburg in Angola], 2005. SMM/CNRS/MNHN & WHO Production.
- O trio contra Marburg [Three musicians against Marburg] 18 min http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/new_trio_marburg_00.rm - Mise en bière d’une petite fille [Laying a little girl in her coffin] 25 min http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/miseenbiere_00.rm - Funérailles de crise, le tailleur et les siens [Burial in haste, the tailor and the family] 37 min mhttp://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/le_tailleur_et_les_siens_00.rm
Epelboin A, Marx A, Durand JL. Ebola au Congo 2003, 2004, SMM/CNRS/MNHN & WHO Production.
- Virus, sorciers & politique [Virus, sorcerers and politics] February 2003, Kellé, 35 min http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/sm/20040211_00_ebola_au_congo_fevrier_2003.rm - Virus, paroles et vidéo [Virus, lyrics and video], juin 2003, Kellé, Mbomo, 30 min http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/20040614_00_ebola_au_congo_juin_2003.rm - Virus, braconnier et fétiche [Virus, poacher and fetish], décembre 2003, Mbomo, 40 min http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/20040617_00_ebola_au_congo_decembre_2003.r m
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Kandolo B, Lubuela JF, Tshioko Kweteminga F, Epelboin A. Ebola en République démocratique du Congo 2007 : un laboratoire de diagnostic rapide à Mweka [Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a rapid diagnostic laboratory at Mweka]. 15 min, Coproduction Radio Télévision Mweka, WHO, CNRS-MNHN & local Red Cross committee.
http://video.rap.prd.fr/video/mnhn/smm/rdc2007ebolamwekalabo.rm Web sites (in alphabetical order) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta (United States of America) http://www.cdc.gov/ European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm (Sweden) http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/ European Network for Diagnostics of "Imported" Viral Diseases (ENIVD), Berlin (Germany) http://www.enivd.de/index.htm Franceville International Centre for Medical Research, Franceville (Gabon) http://www.cirmf.org/ Institut Pasteur, Paris (France) http://www.pasteur.fr/ Médecins Sans Frontières, Paris (France) http://www.msf.fr/ National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Johannesburg (South Africa) http://www.nicd.ac.za/ Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg (Canada) http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/ «Santé, maladie, malheur» [Health, disease, misfortune] video library SMM CNRS MNHN, Paris (France) http://www.rap.prd.fr/ressources/vod.php?videotheque=mnhn/smm World Health Organization, Geneva (Switzerland) http://www.who.int/en/ http://www.who.int/fr/
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Annexes regarding the International Health Regulations (IHR) Annex 36. WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2008/9789241580410_eng.pdf
EMP.pdf
Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack
Volume 1: Executive Report 2004
Dr. John S. Foster, Jr. Mr. Earl Gjelde
Dr. William R. Graham (Chairman) Dr. Robert J. Hermann
Mr. Henry (Hank) M. Kluepfel GEN Richard L. Lawson, USAF (Ret.)
Dr. Gordon K. Soper Dr. Lowell L. Wood, Jr.
Dr. Joan B. Woodard
CHARTER
Public Law 106-398, Title XIV SEC. 1402. DUTIES OF COMMISSION
(a) Review of EMP Threat. The Commission shall assess:
(1) the nature and magnitude of potential high-altitude EMP threats to the United States from all potentially hostile states or non-state actors that have or could acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles enabling them to perform a high-altitude EMP attack against the United States within the next 15 years; (2) the vulnerability of United States military and especially civilian systems to an EMP attack, giving special attention to vulnerability of the civilian infrastructure as a matter of emergency preparedness; (3) the capability of the United States to repair and recover from damage inflicted on United States military and civilian systems by an EMP attack; and (4) the feasibility and cost of hardening select military and civilian systems against EMP attack.
(b) Recommendation. The Commission shall recommend any steps it believes should be taken by the United States to better protect its military and civilian systems from EMP attack.
The findings and recommendations presented in this report are the independent judgments of this Commission and should not be attributed to any other people or organizations. This report presents the unanimous views of the Commissioners.
ABSTRACT Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the
United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication.
EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.
The common element that can produce such an impact from EMP is primarily electronics, so pervasive in all aspects of our society and military, coupled through critical infrastructures. Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use of and dependence on electronics continues to grow. The impact of EMP is asymmetric in relation to potential protagonists who are not as dependent on modern electronics.
The current vulnerability of our critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected. Correction is feasible and well within the Nation's means and resources to accomplish.
CONTENTS
OVERVIEW: EMP IS CAPABLE OF CAUSING CATASTROPHE FOR THE NATION.......... 1
WE CAN PREVENT AN EMP CATASTROPHE............................................................. 4
Nature of the EMP Threat................................................................................. 4
Prevention ......................................................................................................... 7
Protection and Recovery of Civilian Infrastructures ........................................ 8
STRATEGY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 11
Intelligence, Interdiction, and Deterrence......................................................... 11
Protecting Critical Components of the Infrastructure....................................... 12
Maintaining the Capability to Monitor and Evaluate the Condition of Critical Infrastructures.................................................................................. 12
Recognizing EMP Attack ................................................................................. 12
Planning to Carry Out a Systematic Recovery of Critical Infrastructures........ 14
Training, Evaluating, Red Teaming, and Periodically Reporting to the Congress.................................................................................................. 14
Defining the Federal Government’s Responsibility and Authority to Act ....... 15
Recognizing the Opportunities for Shared Benefits ......................................... 16
Conducting Research and Development........................................................... 16
ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ....................................................................... 17
Nature of the Problem....................................................................................... 17
Recommended Mitigation and Responsibility.................................................. 19
Protection .......................................................................................................... 20
Restoration ........................................................................................................ 20
Essential Component Protection ....................................................................... 21
System Restoration ........................................................................................... 22
TELECOMMUNICATIONS........................................................................................... 24
Importance of Assured Telecommunications ................................................... 24
EMP Effects on Telecommunications .............................................................. 28
Recommended Mitigation Activities ................................................................ 28
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BANKING AND FINANCE........................................................................................... 31
Nature of the Problem....................................................................................... 31
Recommended Mitigation and Responsibility.................................................. 33
FUEL/ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE............................................................................. 35
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE....................................................................... 36
Nature of the Problem....................................................................................... 36
Strategy for Protection and Recovery ............................................................... 37
FOOD INFRASTRUCTURE .......................................................................................... 40
Nature of the Problem....................................................................................... 40
Mitigation and Responsibility........................................................................... 40
WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE .......................................................................... 42
EMERGENCY SERVICES ............................................................................................ 43
Vulnerabilities................................................................................................... 43
Recommended Strategy for Protection and Recovery ...................................... 43
SPACE SYSTEMS....................................................................................................... 44
GOVERNMENT.......................................................................................................... 45
KEEPING THE CITIZENRY INFORMED........................................................................ 46
PROTECTION OF MILITARY FORCES ......................................................................... 47
APPENDIXES A The Commission and Its Method...................................................................... A-1 B Commissioners.................................................................................................. B-1
FIGURES 1 Starfish Nuclear Detonation.............................................................................. 5
2 Illustrative EMP Effects – Fast Pulse ............................................................... 6
3 Illustrative EMP Effects – Slow Pulse Protection and Recovery of Civilian Infrastructures ................................................................................................... 7
4 Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors ............................................................... 9
5 Extent of 1989 Geomagnetic Storm.................................................................. 17
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OVERVIEW
EMP IS CAPABLE OF CAUSING CATASTROPHE FOR THE NATION
The high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces.
The damage level could be sufficient to be catastrophic to the Nation, and our current vulnerability invites attack.
Briefly, a single nuclear weapon exploded at high altitude above the United States will interact with the Earth’s atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetic field to produce an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) radiating down to the Earth and additionally create electrical currents in the Earth. EMP effects are both direct and indirect. The former are due to electromagnetic “shocking” of electronics and stressing of electrical systems, and the latter arise from the damage that “shocked”—upset, damaged, and destroyed—electronics controls then inflict on the systems in which they are embedded. The indirect effects can be even more severe than the direct effects.
The electromagnetic fields produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics, and information systems upon which American society depends. Their effects on dependent systems and infrastructures could be sufficient to qualify as catastrophic to the Nation.
Depending on the specific characteristics of the attacks, unprecedented cascading failures of our major infrastructures could result. In that event, a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our Nation. The primary avenues for catastrophic damage to the Nation are through our electric power infrastructure and thence into our telecommunications, energy, and other infrastructures. These, in turn, can seriously impact other important aspects of our Nation’s life, including the financial system; means of getting food, water, and medical care to the citizenry; trade; and production of goods and services. The recovery of any one of the key national infrastructures is dependent on the recovery of others. The longer the outage, the more problematic and uncertain the recovery will be. It is possible
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for the functional outages to become mutually reinforcing until at some point the degradation of infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country’s ability to support its population.
EMP effects from nuclear bursts are not new threats to our nation. The Soviet Union in the past and Russia and other nations today are potentially capable of creating these effects. Historically, this application of nuclear weaponry was mixed with a much larger population of nuclear devices that were the primary source of destruction, and thus EMP as a weapons effect was not the primary focus. Throughout the Cold War, the United States did not try to protect its civilian infrastructure against either the physical or EMP impact of nuclear weapons, and instead depended on deterrence for its safety.
What is different now is that some potential sources of EMP threats are difficult to deter—they can be terrorist groups that have no state identity, have only one or a few weapons, and are motivated to attack the US without regard for their own safety. Rogue states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat to the United States, and may also be unpredictable and difficult to deter.
Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century.
China and Russia have considered limited nuclear attack options that, unlike their Cold War plans, employ EMP as the primary or sole means of attack. Indeed, as recently as May 1999, during the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, high-ranking members of the Russian Duma, meeting with a US congressional delegation to discuss the Balkans conflict, raised the specter of a Russian EMP attack that would paralyze the United States.
Another key difference from the past is that the US has developed more than most other nations as a modern society heavily dependent on electronics, telecommunications, energy, information networks, and a rich set of financial and transportation systems that leverage modern technology. This asymmetry is a source of substantial economic, industrial, and societal advantages, but it creates vulnerabilities and critical interdependencies that are potentially disastrous to the United States. Therefore, terrorists or state actors that possess relatively unsophisticated missiles armed with nuclear weapons may well calculate that, instead of destroying a city or military base, they may obtain the greatest political-military utility from one or a few such weapons by using them—or threatening their use—in an EMP attack. The current vulnerability of US
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critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected; however, correction is feasible and well within the Nation's means and resources to accomplish.
3
WE CAN PREVENT AN EMP CATASTROPHE
The Nation’s vulnerability to EMP that gives rise to potentially large-scale, long- term consequences can be reasonably and readily reduced below the level of a potentially catastrophic national problem by coordinated and focused effort between the private and public sectors of our country. The cost for such improved security in the next 3 to 5 years is modest by any standard—and extremely so in relation to both the war on terror and the value of the national infrastructures involved. The appropriate response to this threatening situation is a balance of prevention, protection, planning, and preparations for recovery. Such actions are both rational and feasible. A number of these actions also reduce vulnerabilities to other serious threats to our infrastructures, thus giving multiple benefits.
NATURE OF THE EMP THREAT
High-altitude EMP results from the detonation of a nuclear warhead at altitudes of about 40 to 400 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The immediate effects of EMP are disruption of, and damage to, electronic systems and electrical infrastructure. EMP is not reported in the scientific literature to have direct effects on people in the parameter range of present interest.
EMP and its effects were observed during the US and Soviet atmospheric test programs in 1962. Figure 1 depicts the Starfish nuclear detonation—not designed or intended as a generator of EMP—at an altitude of about 400 kilometers above Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean. Some electronic and electrical systems in the Hawaiian Islands, 1400 kilometers distant, were affected, causing the failure of street-lighting systems, tripping of circuit breakers, triggering of burglar alarms, and damage to a telecommunications relay facility. In their testing that year, the Soviets executed a series of nuclear detonations in which they exploded 300 kiloton weapons at approximately 300, 150, and 60 kilometers above their test site in South Central Asia. They report that on each shot they observed damage to overhead and underground buried cables at distances of 600 kilometers. They also observed surge arrestor burnout, spark-gap breakdown, blown fuses, and power supply breakdowns.
What is significant about an EMP attack is that one or a few high-altitude nuclear detonations can produce EMP effects that can potentially disrupt or damage electronic
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and electrical systems over much of the United States, virtually simultaneously, at a time determined by an adversary.
Widespread red air glow (6300 å) amid dark clouds, caused mostly by x-ray- excited atomic oxygen (i.e., oxygen by photoelectrons liberated by Starfish X-rays)
Figure 1. Starfish Nuclear Detonation
Gamma rays from a high-altitude nuclear detonation interact with the atmosphere to produce a radio-frequency wave of unique, spatially varying intensity that covers everything within line-of-sight of the explosion’s center point. It is useful to focus on three major EMP components.
FIRST EMP COMPONENT (E1)
The first component is a free-field energy pulse with a rise-time measured in the range of a fraction of a billionth to a few billionths of a second. It is the “electromagnetic shock” that disrupts or damages electronics-based control systems, sensors, communication systems, protective systems, computers, and similar devices. Its damage or functional disruption occurs essentially simultaneously over a very large area, as illustrated in Figure 2.
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Figure 2. Illustrative EMP Effects – Fast Pulse
SECOND EMP COMPONENT (E2
The middle-time component covers roughly the same geographic area as the first component and is similar to lightning in its time-dependence, but is far more geographically widespread in its character and somewhat lower in amplitude. In general, it would not be an issue for critical infrastructure systems since they have existing protective measures for defense against occasional lightning strikes. The most significant risk is synergistic, because the E2 component follows a small fraction of a second after the first component’s insult, which has the ability to impair or destroy many protective and control features. The energy associated with the second component thus may be allowed to pass into and damage systems.
THIRD EMP COMPONENT (E3)
The final major component of EMP is a subsequent, slower-rising, longer- duration pulse that creates disruptive currents in long electricity transmission lines, resulting in damage to electrical supply and distribution systems connected to such lines (Figure 3). The sequence of E1, E2, and then E3 components of EMP is important because each can cause damage, and the later damage can be increased as a result of the earlier damage. In the example depicted in Figures 2 and 3, about 70% of the total electrical power load of the United States is within the region exposed to the EMP event.
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Figure 3. Illustrative EMP Effects – Slow Pulse Protection and
Recovery of Civilian Infrastructures
PREVENTION
An EMP attack is one way for a terrorist activity to use a small amount of nuclear weaponry—potentially just one weapon—in an effort to produce a catastrophic impact on our society, but it is not the only way. In addition, there are potential applications of surface-burst nuclear weaponry, biological and chemical warfare agents, and cyber attacks that might cause damage that could reach large-scale, long-term levels. The first order of business is to prevent any of these attacks from occurring.
The US must establish a global environment that will profoundly discourage such attacks. We must persuade nations to forgo obtaining nuclear weapons or to provide acceptable assurance that these weapons will neither threaten the vital interests of the United States nor fall into threatening hands.
The first order of business is to prevent any of these attacks from occurring.
For all others, we must make it difficult and dangerous to acquire the materials to make a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver them. We must hold at risk of capture or destruction anyone who has such weaponry, wherever they are in the world.
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Those who engage in or support these activities must be made to understand that they do so at the risk of everything they value. Those who harbor or help those who conspire to create these weapons must suffer serious consequences as well.
In case these measures do not completely succeed, we must have vigorous interdiction and interception efforts to thwart delivery of all such weaponry. To support this strategy, the US must have intelligence capabilities sufficient to understand what is happening at each stage of developing threats. In summary, the costs of mounting such attacks must be made to be great in all respects, and the likelihood of successful attack rendered unattractively small.
The current national strategy for war on terrorism already contains all of these elements. The threat of an EMP attack further raises what may be at stake.
To further forestall an EMP attack, we must reduce our vulnerability to EMP and develop our ability to recover, should there be an attack, in order to reduce the incentives to use such weaponry. We should never allow terrorists or rogue states a “cheap shot” that has such a large and potentially devastating impact.
PROTECTION AND RECOVERY OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURES
Each critical infrastructure in the US is dependent upon other infrastructures (Figure 4). The interdependence on the proper functioning of such systems constitutes a hazard when threat of widespread failures exists. The strong interdependence of our critical national infrastructures may cause unprecedented challenges in attempts to recover from the widespread disruption and damage that would be caused by an EMP attack.
All of the critical functions of US society and related infrastructures—electric power, telecommunications, energy, financial, transportation, emergency services, water, food, etc.—have electronic devices embedded in most aspects of their systems, often providing critical controls. Electric power has thus emerged as an essential service underlying US society and all of its other critical infrastructures. Telecommunications has grown to a critical level but may not rise to the same level as electrical power in terms of risk to the Nation’s survival. All other infrastructures and critical functions are dependent upon the support of electric power and telecommunications. Therefore, we must make special efforts to prepare and protect these two high-leverage systems.
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Figure 4. Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors
Most critical infrastructure system vulnerabilities can be reduced below the level that potentially invites attempts to create a national catastrophe. By protecting key elements in each critical infrastructure and by preparing to recover essential services, the prospects for a terrorist or rogue state being able to achieve large-scale, long-term damage can be minimized. This can be accomplished reasonably and expeditiously.
Such preparation and protection can be achieved over the next few years, given a dedicated commitment by the federal government and an affordable investment of resources. We need to take actions and allocate resources to decrease the likelihood that catastrophic consequences from an EMP attack will occur, to reduce our current serious level of vulnerability to acceptable levels and thereby reduce incentives to attack, and to remain a viable modern society even if an EMP attack occurs. Since this is a matter of national security, t the responsibility of managing the most serious inf
Homeland Security Presidential Directives the Federal government to act vigorously and cohe the Nation from terrorist attack. The effects of EM
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The most critical infrastructure system vulnerabilities can be reduced below those levels that invite attack or cause a national catastrophe.
he federal government must shoulder rastructure vulnerabilities.
7 and 8 lay the authoritative basis for rently to mitigate many of the risks to P on our major infrastructures lie
within these directives, and the directives specify adequate responsibilities and provide sufficient authorities to deal with the civilian sector consequences of an EMP attack.
In particular, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been established, led by a Secretary with authority, responsibility, and the obligation to request needed resources for the mission of protecting the US and recovering from the impacts of the most serious threats. This official must assure that plans, resources, and implementing structures are in place to accomplish these objectives, specifically with respect to the EMP threat. In doing so, DHS must work in conjunction with the other established governmental institutions and with experts in the private sector to most efficiently accomplish this mission. It is important that metrics for assessing improvements in prevention, protection, and recovery be put in place and then evaluated and that progress be reported regularly. DHS must clearly and expeditiously delineate its responsibility and actions in relation to other governmental institutions and the private sector, in order to provide clear accountability and avoid confusion and duplication of effort.
Specific recommendations are provided below with respect to both the particulars for securing each of the most critical national infrastructures against EMP threats and the governing principles for addressing these issues of national survival and recovery in the aftermath of EMP attack.
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STRATEGY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
It will not be possible to reduce the incentives for an EMP attack to an acceptable level of risk through defensive protection measures alone. It is possible to achieve an acceptable level of risk and reduced invitation to an EMP attack with a strategy of:
Pursuing intelligence, interdiction, and deterrence to discourage EMP attack against the US and its interests
Protecting critical components of the infrastructure, with particular emphasis on those that, if damaged, would require long periods of time to repair or replace
Maintaining the capability to monitor and evaluate the condition of critical infrastructures
Recognizing an EMP attack and understanding how its effects differ from other forms of infrastructure disruption and damage
Planning to carry out a systematic recovery of critical infrastructures
Training, evaluating, “Red Teaming,” and periodically reporting to the Congress
Defining the Federal Government’s responsibility and authority to act
Recognizing the opportunities for shared benefits
Conducting research to better understand infrastructure system effects and developing cost-effective solutions to manage these effects
The cost for such improved security in the next 3 to 5 years is modest by any standard—and extremely so in relation to both the war on terror and the value of the national infrastructures involved. Costs at later times may be adjusted to deal with the then-apparent threat and future levels of effort required.
INTELLIGENCE, INTERDICTION, AND DETERRENCE
The federal government’s efforts to establish and maintain a global environment that profoundly discourages potentially catastrophic attacks is our first line of defense. The development, trading, and movement of critical materials and weapons useful for mounting WMD attacks, including those that are based on the use of EMP, must be identified as early in the process as possible. The methods and materials that could encourage an EMP attack must be added to the list of threats presently being sought out and annihilated. The US and its allies against transnational terrorism must make it
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exceedingly difficult and dangerous for organizations to position themselves to be a threat, or allow others to use their country and its assets in order to become a threat, specifically including EMP threats. We must hold potential perpetrators at risk of capture or destruction, whenever and wherever in the world they operate.
PROTECTING CRITICAL COMPONENTS OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE
Some components of critical infrastructures, such as large turbines, generators, and high-voltage transformers in electrical power systems, and electronic switching systems in telecommunication systems, would require long periods of time to repair or replace. These components should be configured so that even under electronic disruption and damage, such as could be produced by EMP, they do not become further damaged in the course of shutting down or attempting to restore themselves. This type of damage has occurred in the past. During the Northeast power blackout of 1965, Consolidated Edison generators, transformers, motors, and auxiliary equipment were damaged by the sudden shutdown. In particular, the #3 unit at the Ravenswood power plant in New York City suffered damage when the blackout caused loss of oil pressure to the main turbine bearing. The damage kept that unit out of service for nearly a year, and more immediately, complicated and delayed the restoration of service to New York City.
MAINTAINING THE CAPABILITY TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE THE CONDITION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
After an EMP attack, system operators and others in positions of authority and responsibility must have immediate access to information sufficient to characterize the state of their critical infrastructure systems. Without such system monitoring and reporting information, the system operators will not have the information required to evaluate the extent of the loss of infrastructure and know how to begin restoration of their systems. They may even induce further damage by taking inappropriate actions or failing to take necessary actions. During the time leading up to the August 14, 2003, Midwest power blackout that affected both the United States and Canada, key system operators did not have a functioning alarm system, did not recognize that the alarm system was not functioning, and had only fragmentary information on the changing configuration of the rapidly collapsing power grid for which they were responsible.
RECOGNIZING EMP ATTACK
Electronic upsets and failures occur under normal operating circumstances, even in high-reliability equipment such as that supporting critical infrastructure. EMP-induced
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upsets and failures, however, are different from those encountered in the normal operation of infrastructure systems, and in fact have unique aspects not encountered under any other circumstances.
EMP produces nearly simultaneous upset and damage of electronic and of other electrical equipment over wide geographic areas, determined by the altitude, character, and explosive yield of the EMP-producing nuclear explosion. Since such upset and damage is not encountered in other circumstances and particularly not remotely to the same scale, the normal experience of otherwise skilled system operators and others in positions of responsibility and authority will not have prepared them to identify what has happened to the system, what actions to take to minimize further adverse consequences, and what actions must be carried out to restore the impacted systems as swiftly and effectively as possible.
Special system capabilities and operator awareness, planning, training, and testing will be required to deal with EMP-induced system impacts. The first requirement is for the operators of critical infrastructure systems to be able to determine that a high-altitude nuclear explosion has occurred and has produced a unique set of adverse effects on their systems. That information can be provided by local electromagnetic sensors, by information from Earth satellite systems, or by other means. Whatever the means, the operators and others in positions of authority and responsibility must receive the information immediately. Therefore, the EMP event notification system must itself be highly reliable during and after an EMP attack.
Operators and others in positions of authority and responsibility must be trained to recognize that an EMP attack in fact has taken place, to understand the wide range of effects it can produce, to analyze the status of their infrastructure systems, to avoid further system degradation, to dispatch resources to begin effective system restoration, and to sustain the most critical functions while the system is being repaired and restored. Failures similar to those induced by EMP do not occur in normal system operation; therefore, the training for, and experience developed in the course of, normal system operation will not provide operators with the skills and knowledge base necessary to perform effectively after EMP-induced system disruption and failure. Training, procedures, simulations, and exercises must be developed and carried out that are specifically designed to contend with EMP-induced effects.
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PLANNING TO CARRY OUT A SYSTEMATIC RECOVERY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
A crisis such as the immediate aftermath of an EMP attack is not the time to begin planning for an effective response. Plans to avoid causing further damage to critical infrastructures and to carry out a systematic recovery of those infrastructures must be in hand at the earliest possible time. Planning for responding to an EMP attack should begin now and should be carried out jointly by system operators, hardware and software providers, and experts in both the government and private sectors.
Individual infrastructure systems have many similar electronically based control and monitoring functions. The primary features of EMP attack mitigation in each infrastructure include elements of protection of critical functions, identifying where damage within the system is located, dispatch/allocation of resources to allow for timely restoration and development of operational procedures including simulation of both individual and interacting infrastructures, training, testing, and governance. This requires test and evaluation of both existing and future systems to identify weak spots subject to EMP damage and focus mitigation activities accordingly. EMP protection thus has a substantial aspect focused on individual functioning units within each system that contains electronic components, although not necessarily on the individual electronic subcomponents of these units themselves. These units include distributed Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) modules, mobile communicators, radios, embedded control computers, etc. New units can be EMP-hardened for a very small fraction of the cost of the non-hardened item, e.g., 1% to 3% of cost, if hardening is done at the time the unit is designed and manufactured. In contrast, retrofitting existing functional components is potentially an order of magnitude more expensive and should be done only for critical system units. It is important to note, however, that for protection to remain functional, it must be tested and maintained in its operational mode with rigor and discipline.
TRAINING, EVALUATING, RED TEAMING, AND PERIODICALLY REPORTING TO THE CONGRESS
Identifying an EMP attack, understanding the state of the system after attack, developing and implementing plans for system restoration, and having operators and others in positions of authority and responsibility trained to recognize and respond effectively are elements of strategy that are common to managing the effects of EMP for each of the Nation’s critical infrastructure components. Conducting and evaluating the results of training, simulations, tests, and Red Team activities, and periodically reporting
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the results to senior executive branch leaders, the Congress, and the public are important elements of being well-prepared for EMP attack, which in turn will sharply reduce the incentives for conduct of such an attack.
DEFINING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY AND AUTHORITY TO ACT
Governance of the critical infrastructures such as electrical power systems and communications is presently distributed among statutory governmental entities at the federal, state, regional, and municipal levels, as well as among a variety of non- governmental entities. A multiplicity of statutory bodies, private companies, associations, and individual owners also participate in determining decisions and actions. Nevertheless, the process is coordinated, albeit loosely, to produce normal efficient, reliable, and high quality service that is the envy of the world—in a peacetime environment.
DHS must interact with other governmental institutions and the private sector in defining liability, responsibility, and funding in order to enable private and government facilities, such as independent power plants, to contribute their capability in a time of national need, yet not interfere with market creation and operation to the maximum extent practical.
A terrorist threat—let alone a terrorist attack—is outside the ambit of normal governance of the key national infrastructures. In dealing with such threats, the Department of Homeland Security has the unique and sole responsibility and authority to govern the specific actions and involved parties within the US, including requesting enabling Congressional funding as appropriate and necessary. DHS must interact with other governmental institutions and the private sector in defining liability, responsibility and funding in order to enable private and government facilities, such as independent power plants, to contribute their capability in a time of national need, yet not interfere with market creation and operation to the maximum extent practical.
Industry associations, system owners/providers, private consultants, and universities all will be able to contribute useful levels of knowledge and skills. DHS is responsible for making the prudent trade-offs within each mitigation activity between performance, risk, schedule, and cost in relation to consequent system protection and then-expected risk in order to achieve maximum protection. For example, some actions taken to protect a system from an EMP attack may diminish the reliability or quality of that system’s normal commercial performance, while other actions may improve the performance.
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As an example of resources readily available to DHS with respect to the electric system, the North American Reliability Counsel (NERC) and the Electric Power Research Institute are well-positioned to provide much of the support needed in regard to the EMP threat. Working closely with industry and these institutions, the DHS should provide for the necessary capability to control the national bulk electricity supply system in order to protect critical services, minimize its self-destruction in the event of an EMP attack, and recover its normal capabilities as rapidly and effectively as possible thereafter.
RECOGNIZING THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHARED BENEFITS
Most of the following initiatives and actions the Commission recommends militate against more than an EMP attack. The protection and/or rapid restoration of critical infrastructures in the civilian sector from an EMP attack also will be effective against other types of infrastructure disruptions, such as attacks aimed at directly damaging or destroying key components of the electrical system, and natural or accidental large-scale disruptions are also significantly mitigated by these same initiatives. Some of these steps also enhance reliability and quality of critical infrastructures, which is a major direct benefit to the US economy and to our way of life.
CONDUCTING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Very little research and development addressing EMP-related system response protection and recovery issues has been done for more than a decade. Conducting research to better understand infrastructure system effects and developing cost-effective solutions to manage these effects will be important to understanding the implications of the rapid evolution of electronics and electrical systems, and their growing role in controlling and operating modern critical infrastructure.
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ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE
NATURE OF THE PROBLEM
Electric power is integral to the functioning of electronic components. For highly reliable systems such as commercial and military telecommunications, electric power usually comes from batteries (in the short term), local emergency power supplies (generally over time-intervals of less then 72 hours), and electricity delivered through the local electrical utility (“power” lines in the home, office and factory). Local emergency power supplies are limited by supplies of stored fuel. Increasingly, locally stored fuel in buildings and cities is being reduced for fire safety and environmental pollution reasons, so that the emergency generation availability without refueling is limited.
Geomagnetic storms, a natural phenomenon driven by the solar wind, may, by a different physical mechanism, produce ground-induced currents (GIC) that can affect the electrical system in a manner similar to the E3 component of EMP. Disruptions caused by geomagnetic storms, such as the collapse of Quebec Hydro grid during the geomagnetic storm of 1989, have occurred many times in the past (Figure 5).
Geomagnetic field disturbance conditions, dB/dt (nT/min) over North America at time 7:45 UT on March 13, 1989 Source: Metatech Corporation, Applied Power Solutions
Figure 5. Extent of 1989 Geomagnetic Storm
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Depending on the explosive yield of the nuclear weapon used, EMP-induced GIC may be several times larger than that produced by the average geomagnetic storm, and may even be comparable to those expected to arise in the largest geomagnetic storm ever observed. It may also occur over an area not normally affected by historic geomagnetic storms.
The North American economy and the functioning of the society as a whole are critically dependent on the availability of electricity, as needed, where and when needed. The electric power system in the US and interconnected areas of Canada and Mexico is outstanding in terms of its ability to meet load demands with high quality and reliable electricity at reasonable cost. However, over the last decade or two, there has been relatively little large-capacity electric transmission constructed and the generation additions that have been made, while barely adequate, have been increasingly located considerable distances from load for environmental, political, and economic reasons. As a result, the existing National electrical system not infrequently operates at or very near local limits on its physical capacity to move power from generation to load. Therefore, the slightest insult or upset to the system can cause functional collapse affecting significant numbers of people, businesses, and manufacturing. It is not surprising that a single EMP attack may well encompass and degrade at least 70% of the Nation’s electrical service, all in one instant.
The impact of such EMP is different and far more catastrophic than that effected by historic blackouts, in three primary respects:
1. The EMP impact is virtually instantaneous and occurs simultaneously over a
much larger geographic area. Generally, there are neither precursors nor warning, and no opportunity for human-initiated protective action. The early-time EMP component is the “electromagnetic shock” that disrupts or damages electronics- based control systems and sensors, communication systems, protective systems, and control computers, all of which are used to control and bring electricity from generation sites to customer loads in the quantity and quality needed. The E1 pulse also causes some insulator flashovers in the lower-voltage electricity distribution systems (those found in suburban neighborhoods, in rural areas and inside cities), resulting in immediate broad-scale loss-of-load. Functional collapse of the power system is almost definite over the entire affected region, and may cascade into adjacent geographic areas.
2. The middle-time EMP component is similar to lightning in its time-dependence but is far more widespread in its character although of lower amplitude— essentially a great many lightning-type insults over a large geographic area which might obviate protection. The late-time EMP component couples very efficiently
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to long electrical transmission lines and forces large direct electrical currents to flow in them, although they are designed to carry only alternating currents. The energy levels thereby concentrated at the ends of these long lines can become large enough to damage major electrical power system components. The most significant risk is synergistic, because the middle and late-time pulses follow after the early-time pulse, which can impair or destroy protective and control features of the power grid. Then the energies associated with the middle and late-time EMP thus may pass into major system components and damage them. It may also pass electrical surges or fault currents into the loads connected to the system, creating damage in national assets that are not normally considered part of the infrastructure per se. Net result is recovery times of months to years, instead of days to weeks.
3. Proper functioning of the electrical power system requires communication systems, financial systems, transportation systems, and—for much of the generation—continuous or nearly continuous supply of various fuels. However, the fuel-supply, communications, transportation, and financial infrastructures would be simultaneously disabled or degraded in an EMP attack and are dependent upon electricity for proper functioning. For electrical system recovery and restoration of service, the availability of these other infrastructures is essential. The longer the outage, the more problematic, and uncertainty-fraught the recovery will be.
The recent cascading outage of August 14, 2003, is an example of a single failure compounded by system weaknesses and human mistakes. It also provides an example of the effectiveness of protective equipment. However, with EMP there are multiple insults coupled with the disabling of protective devices simultaneously over an extremely broad region—damage to the system is likely and recovery slow. RECOMMENDED MITIGATION AND RESPONSIBILITY
The electrical system is designed to break into “islands” of roughly matching generation and load when a portion of the system receives a severe electrical insult. This serves both to protect electricity supply in the non-impacted regions and to allow for the stable island-systems to be used to “restart” the island(s) that have lost functionality. With EMP, the magnitude, speed, and multi-faceted nature of the insult, its broad geographic reach, along with the number of simultaneous insults, and the adverse synergies all are likely to result in a situation where the islanding scheme will fail to perform as effectively as intended, if at all. Since the impacted geographic area is large, restoring the system from the still-functioning perimeter regions would take a great deal of time, possibly weeks to months at best. Indeed, the only practical way to restart much of the impacted electrical system may be with generation that can be started without an external power source. This is called “black start” generation and primarily includes
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hydroelectric (including pumped storage), geothermal, and independent diesel generators of modest capacity.
The recommended actions will substantially improve service and recovery during “normal” large-scale blackouts, and will critically enable recovery under EMP circumstances.
PROTECTION
Widespread functional collapse of the electric power system in the area affected by EMP is likely.
It is impractical to protect the entire electrical power system from damage by an EMP attack. There are too many components of too many different types, manufacturers, designs, and vulnerabilities within too many jurisdictional entities, and the cost to retrofit is too great. Widespread functional collapse of the electrical power system in the area affected by EMP is possible in the face of a geographically broad EMP attack, with even a relatively few unprotected components in place. However, it is practical to reduce to low levels the probability of widespread damage to major power system components that require long times to replace. This will enable significantly improved recovery times, since it avoids the loss of long lead-time and critical components. It is important to protect the ability of the system to fragment gracefully into islands, to the extent practical in the particular EMP circumstance. This approach is cost-efficient and can leverage efforts to improve reliability of bulk electricity supply and enhance its security against the broader range of threats.
RESTORATION
The key to minimizing adverse effects from loss of electrical power is the speed of restoration. Restoration involves matching generation capacity to a load of equivalent size over a transmission network that is initially isolated from the broader system. The larger system is then functionally rebuilt by bringing that mini system, or “island,” to the standard operating frequency and thereupon by adding more blocks of generation and load to this core in amounts that can be absorbed by the growing subsystem. This is a demanding and time-consuming process in the best of circumstances. In the singular circumstance of an EMP attack with multiple damaged components, related infrastructure failures, and particularly severe challenges in communications and transportation, the time required to restore electrical power is expected to be considerably longer than we have experienced in recent history.
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However, by protecting key system components needed for restoration, by structuring the network to fail gracefully, and by creating a comprehensive prioritized recovery plan for the most critical power needs, the risk of an EMP attack having a catastrophic effect on the Nation can be greatly reduced. DHS must ensure that the mitigation plan is jointly developed by the federal government and the electric power industry, implemented fully, instilled into systems operations, and tested and practiced regularly to maintain a capability to respond effectively in emergencies. The North American Reliability Council and the Electric Power Research Institute are aptly positioned to provide much of what’s needed to support DHS in carrying out its responsibilities. The US Energy Association is well-suited to coordinating activities between and among the various energy sectors that together affect the electric power system and its vitality.
ESSENTIAL COMPONENT PROTECTION
1. Assure protection of high-value long-lead-time transmission assets.
2. Assure protection of high-value generation assets. System-level protection assurance is more complex due to the need for multiple systems to function in proper sequence.
3. Assure Key Generation Capability. Not all plants can or should be protected. However, regional evaluation of key generating resources necessary for recovery should be selected and protected.
a. Coal-fired generation plants make up nearly half the Nation’s generation and are generally the most robust overall to EMP, with many electromechanical controls still in operation. Such coal plants also normally have at least a few days to a month of on-site fuel storage.
b. Natural gas-fired combustion turbines and associated steam secondary systems represent the newest and a significant contributor to meeting loads. These have modern electronics-based control and thus are more vulnerable. Natural gas is not stored on-site and likely will be interrupted in an EMP attack. However, provision can be made to have gas-fired plants also operate on fuel oil; many do already.
c. Nuclear plants produce roughly 20% of the Nation’s generation and have many redundant fail-safe systems that tend to remove them from service whenever any system upset is sensed. Their safe shut down should be assured, but they will be unavailable until near the end of restoration.
d. Hydroelectric power is generally quite robust to EMP, and constitutes a substantial fraction of total national generation capacity, albeit unevenly distributed geographically.
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e. In general, the various distributed and renewable fueled generators are not significant enough at this time to warrant special protection.
f. Black start generation of all types is critical and will need to be protected from EMP upset or damage.
4. Assure functional integrity of critical communications channels. The most critical communications channels in the power grid are the ones that enable recovery from collapse, such as ones that enable manual operation and coordination- supporting contacts between distant system operators and those that support system diagnostics. Generation, switching, and load dispatch communications support is next in importance.
5. Assure availability of emergency power at critical facilities needed for restoration. Transmission substations need uninterruptible power to support rapid restoration of grid connectivity and operability, and thereby to more quickly restore service. Most have short-life battery backup systems, but relatively few have longer- duration emergency generators; much more emphasis on the latter is needed.
6. Assure protection of fuel production and its delivery for generation. Fuel supply adequate to maintain critical electrical service and to restore expanded service is critical. See Fuel/Energy Infrastructure, page 35) for details.
7. Expand and assure intelligent islanding capability. The ability of the larger electrical power system to break into relatively small subsystem islands is important to mitigate overall EMP impacts and provide faster restoration.
8. Develop and deploy system test standards and equipment. Device-level robustness standards and test equipment exist, but protection at the system level is the overarching goal. System-level robustness improvements such as isolators, line protection, and grounding improvements will be the most practical and least expensive in most cases relative to replacement with more robust individual component devices. Periodic testing of system response is necessary.
SYSTEM RESTORATION
1. Develop and enable a restoration plan. This plan must prioritize the rapid restoration of power to government-identified critical service. Sufficient black start generation capacity must be provided where it is needed in the associated subsystem islands, along with transmission system paths that can be isolated and connected to matching loads. The plan must address outages with wide geographic coverage, multiple major component failures, poor communication capabilities, and widespread failure of islanding schemes within the EMP-affected area. Government and industry responsibilities must be unequivocally and completely assigned. All necessary legal and financial arrangements, e.g., for indemnification, must be put into place to allow industry to implement specified government priorities with respect to service restoration, as well as to deal with potential environmental and technical hazards in order to assure rapid recovery.
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2. Simulate, train, exercise, and test the plan. Simulators must be developed for use in training and developing procedures similar to those in the airline industry; a handful should suffice for the entire country. Along with simulation and field exercises, Red Team discipline should be employed to surface weaknesses and prioritize their rectification.
3. Assure sufficient numbers of adequately trained recovery personnel.
4. Assure availability of replacement equipment. R&D is under way—and should be vigorously pursued—into the production of emergency “universal” replacements. The emergency nature of such devices would trade efficiency and service-life for modularity, transportability, and affordability.
5. Implement redundant backup diagnostics and communication. Assure that system operators can reliably identify and locate damaged components.
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TELECOMMUNICATIONS IMPORTANCE OF ASSURED TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Telecommunications plays a key role in US society in terms of its direct effect on individuals and business and due to its impact on other key infrastructures. The relationship of telecommunications to the other critical infrastructures, such as the financial industry, is often recognized during and following widespread outages, such as those experienced as a result of the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Centers and the immediate vicinity of “Ground Zero.” The local disruption of all critical infrastructures, including power, transportation, and telecommunications, interrupted operations in key financial markets and posed increased liquidity risks to the US financial system.1 In the days following the attacks, institutions in the affected areas were implementing their business continuity plans, which proved vital to the rapid restoration and recovery of services in the New York City area. In addition, the President emphasized that the prompt restoration of Wall Street’s capabilities was critical to the economic welfare of the Nation; in doing so, he aptly linked economic stability to national security.
For some of the most critical infrastructure services, such as electric power, natural gas, and financial services, assured communications are essential to their recovery following a major adverse event. The importance of telecommunications in an emergency situation is underscored by the existence of the National Communications System (NCS), established by Executive Order 12472, Assignment of National Security and Emergency Preparedness Telecommunications Functions,2 which include administering the National 1 James J. MacAndrews and Simmon M. Potter, “Liquidity Effects of the Events of September 11, 2001,”
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, November 2002. 2 The mission of the NCS shall be to assist the President, the National Security Council, the Homeland
Security Council, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget in: (1) the exercise of the telecommunications functions and responsibilities set forth in Section 2 of this Order; and (2) the coordination of the planning for and provision of national security and emergency preparedness communications for the Federal government under all circumstances, including crisis or emergency, attack, recovery, and reconstitution.
The NCS shall seek to ensure that a national telecommunications infrastructure is developed which: (1) Is responsive to the national security and emergency preparedness needs of the President and the Federal departments, agencies and other entities, including telecommunications in support of national security leadership and continuity of government; (2) Is capable of satisfying priority telecommunications requirements under all circumstances through use of commercial, government and privately owned telecommunications resources; (3) Incorporates the necessary combination of hardness, redundancy, mobility, connectivity, interoperability, restorability and security to obtain, to the maximum extent
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Coordinating Center (NCC) for Telecommunications to facilitate the initiation, coordination, restoration, and reconstitution of National Security and Emergency Preparedness (NS/EP) telecommunications services or facilities under all crises and emergencies; developing and ensuring the implementation of plans and programs that support the viability of telecommunications infrastructure hardness, redundancy, mobility, connectivity, and security; and serving as the focal point for joint industry- government and interagency NS/EP telecommunications planning and partnerships. In addition, the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC), a Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) CEO-level advisory group to the President, is tasked with providing industry-sourced advice and expertise related to implementing policies affecting NS/EP communications. These NS/EP services are those “critical to the maintenance of a state of readiness or the response to and management of any event or crisis that causes harm or could cause harm to the population, damage to or the loss of property, or degrades or threatens the NS/EP posture of the United States.”3
The NSTAC in its 1985 Report on EMP found that “consistent with its cost constraints, industry should incorporate low-cost EMP mitigation practices into new facilities and, as appropriate, into upgrade programs. For those areas where a carrier/supplier recognizes that a significant improvement in EMP resistance and surveillance could be achieved, but at a cost beyond the carrier/supplier's own cost constraints, the carrier/supplier should identify such options to the government for evaluation and possible funding.” On October 9, 1985, the NSTAC approved the EMP Final Task Force Report and forwarded a recommendation to the President, calling for a joint industry and Government program to reduce the costs of existing techniques for mitigating high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP)-induced transients and to develop new techniques for limiting transient effects. As a result, the NCS and industry, working with the ATIS—the Alliance for Industry Solutions—developed a set of ANSI standards and Generic Requirements4 to address EMP.5
practicable, the survivability of national security and emergency preparedness telecommunications in all circumstances, including conditions of crisis or emergency; and (4) Is consistent, to the maximum extent practicable, with other national telecommunications policies.
3 NS/EP Implications for Electronic Commerce, NSTAC Report, June 1999. 4 Telcordia GR-1089-CORE. 5 ANSI T1.320.
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NS/EP Definitions
NS/EP Telecommunications Services: Telecommunications services that are used to maintain a state of readiness or to respond to and manage any event or crisis (local, national, or international) that causes or could cause injury or harm to the population, damage to or loss of property, or degrades or loss of property, or degrades or threatens the NS/EP posture of the United States. (“Telecommunications Service Priority [TSP] System for National Security Emergency Preparedness: Service User Manual,” NCS Manual 3-1-1, July 9, 1990. Appendix A.)
NS/EP Requirements: Features that maintain a state of readiness or respond to and
manage an event or crisis (local, national, or international), which causes or could cause injury or harm to the population, damage to or loss of property, or degrade or threaten the NS/EP posture of the United States. (Federal Standard 1037C)
With respect to NS/EP telecommunications, capabilities exist for prioritizing
phone calls through the wireline, wireless, and satellite networks during the time interval when call volumes are excessive and facilities are damaged, giving priority to restoring services that may be damaged or degraded, and getting new circuits into operation.
According to recent testimony by a DHS official, “The NCS is continuing a diverse set of mature and evolving programs designed to ensure priority use of telecommunications services by NS/EP users during times of national crisis. The more mature services—including the Government Emergency Telecommunications Service (GETS) and the Telecommunications Service Priority (TSP)—were instrumental in the response to the September 11 attacks. FY 2005 funding enhances these programs and supports the development of the Wireless Priority Service (WPS) program and upgrade to the Special Routing Arrangement Service (SRAS). Specifically, priority service programs include: (1) GETS, which offers nationwide priority voice and low-speed data service during an emergency or crisis situation; (2) WPS, which provides a nationwide priority cellular service to key NS/EP users, including individuals from federal, state and local governments and the private sector; (3) TSP, which provides the administrative and operational framework for priority provisioning and restoration of critical NS/EP telecommunications services; (4) SRAS, which is a variant of GETS to support the Continuity of Government (COG) program including the reengineering of SRAS in the AT&T network and development of SRAS capabilities in the MCI and Sprint networks, and; (5) the Alerting and Coordination Network (ACN), which is an NCS program that
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provides dedicated communications between selected critical government and telecommunications industry operations centers.”6
For example, due to concerns with respect to getting calls through during intervals of high network call volumes that follow disaster events, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) utilizes the Government Emergency Telecommunications System (GETS) and other NS/EP telecom services such as wireless priority services to communicate with commercial nuclear power plants and to relay critical status information. This use of GETS grew out of lessons learned from the Three Mile Island incident in 1979. During the initial days of this incident, NRC personnel experienced communication problems that were attributed primarily to call volume overload at the local telephone company switch.
Another NS/EP service is the Telecommunications Service Priority (TSP) program, which exists to assign priority provisioning and restoration of critical NS/EP telecommunications services in the hours immediately following a major disaster. In place since the mid-1980s, more than 50,000 circuits are protected today under TSP, including circuits associated with critical infrastructures such as electric power, telecommunications, and financial services.
The telecommunication system consists of four basic and primary physical systems: wireline, wireless, satellite, and radio. In general, the national telecommunications infrastructure may be farther advanced then others in its ability to address the particular consequences of EMP. This is due in large measure to the recognized alternative threats to this system, as well as broad recognition of its importance to society. The three primary and separate systems (excluding radio) that make up the broad telecommunications infrastructure each provide specialized services; they also overlap heavily. Thus the loss or degradation of any one of these somewhat redundant subsystems subjects the remaining functional subsystems to heavier service loads.
Each of these four primary systems is unique in their capability to suffer insult from EMP. The wireline system is robust but will be degraded within the area exposed to the EMP electromagnetic fields. The wireless system is technologically fragile in relation
6 Statement of General Frank Libutti, Under Secretary for Information Analysis and Infrastructure
Protection ,Department of Homeland Security, Before the House Homeland Select Subcommittee on Intelligence and Counterterrorism and the Subcommittee on Infrastructure and Border Security, March 4, 2004, p. 12.
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to EMP, certainly in comparison to the wireline one. In general, it may be so seriously degraded in the EMP region as to be unavailable. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communications satellites may also suffer radiation damage as a result of one or more high-altitude nuclear bursts that produce EMP (see Space Systems, page 44).
The radio communication sub-system of the national telecommunications infrastructure is not widespread, but where it is connected to antennas, power lines, telephone lines, or other extended conductors, it is also subject to substantial EMP damage. However, radio communication devices not so connected or not connected to such conductors at the time of the EMP attack are likely to be operable in the post-attack interval.
EMP EFFECTS ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Based upon results of Commission-sponsored testing, an EMP attack would disrupt or damage a functionally significant fraction of the electronic circuits in the Nation’s civilian telecommunications systems in the region exposed to EMP. The remaining operational networks would be subjected to high levels of call attempts for some period of time after the attack, leading to degraded telecommunications services.
Key government and civilian personnel will need priority access to use public network resources to coordinate and support local, regional, and national recovery efforts, especially during the interval of severe network congestion.
To offset the temporary loss of electric power, telecommunications sites now utilize a mix of batteries, mobile generators, and fixed-location generators. These typically have between 4 and 72 hours of backup power available, and thus will depend on either the resumption of electrical utility power or fuel deliveries to function for longer periods of time.
For some of the most critical infrastructure services such as electric power, natural gas, and financial services, assured communications are necessary—but aren’t necessarily sufficient—to the survival of that service during the initial time-intervals after an EMP attack. Therefore, a systematic approach to protecting or restoring key communications systems will be required.
RECOMMENDED MITIGATION ACTIVITIES
The following actions are recommended as particularly effective ones for mitigating the impacts of EMP attack:
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Expand the respective roles of the National Communications System (NCS) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) as the Federal Focal Point for EMP within the Code of Federal Regulations Part 2157 to address infrastructure interdependencies related to NS/EP telecommunications services.
Ensure services targeted at NS/EP operate effectively as new technology is introduced into the telecommunications network. Specifically, services such as Government Emergency Telecommunications Service (GETS) and Wireless Priority Service (WPS) that are intended for use in emergency situations to improve the call completion probabilities for key personnel must operate effectively. Within the next 15 years, new technologies will be introduced into the public networks that will play major roles in operation of these services. EMP is just one of the potential threats that could stress the telecommunications networks; therefore, ensuring that NS/EP services perform effectively as new technology is introduced has benefits beyond providing robustness to EMP, and moreover is consistent with avoiding failures from other hostile actions.
Determine the effects of EMP on different types of telecommunication equipment and facilities, using tests and theoretical analyses of the type done in the course of Commission-sponsored work and previous EMP- related studies conducted by the National Communications System (NCS).8. A comprehensive, continuing telecommunications testing program,9 along with the use of existing national and international standards,10 may be a model activity that would be a key part of this overall National effort.
Improve the ability of key network assets to survive HEMP. There are key elements in the network such as the Signal Transfer Points (STPs) in the signaling system (Signaling System 7 (SS7)), Home Location Register (HLR), and Visiting Location Register (VLR) in the wireless networks whose degradation can result in the loss of service to a larger number of users. Effective mitigation strategies include a combination of site hardening and installation of protective measures for the fast rise-time (E1) component of EMP.
Improve the ability of telecommunications to withstand the sustained loss of utility-supplied electric power. This mitigation strategy would entail the use of best practices, review and improvement of existing programs such
7 47CFR, Section 215, designated The Executive Agent, NCS, is the focal point within the Federal Government for all EMP technical data and studies concerning NS/EP telecommunications.
8 For example: The Effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) on Telecommunications Assets, NCS Technical Information Bulletin 92-5, February 1992.
9 Similar to that conducted in response to the Signaling System 7 outages of the early 1990’s (which affected large portions of the United States) under the Inter-network Interoperability Test Program (IITP) of the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS).
10 Standards for Protection of Telecommunications Links, NCS Technical Notes, Volume 6, Number 3, 1999.
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as the Telecommunications Electric Service Priority (TESP) program, and the increased use of alternative backup power sources.
Conduct exercises to refine contingency operations. Conduct exercises that test and provide for improved contingency operations, assuming widespread multi-infrastructure degradation. The adequacy of mutual aid agreements, cross-organizational planning and coordination, and critical asset prioritization are examples of elements that should be tested and developed.
Managers of these critical services must design their systems and operating procedures to take into account the potential vulnerabilities introduced by EMP-driven failure of telecommunications devices and sub- systems.
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BANKING AND FINANCE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM
The financial services industry comprises a network of organizations and attendant systems that process instruments of monetary value in the form of deposits, loans, funds transfers, savings, and other financial transactions. It includes banks and other depository institutions, including the Federal Reserve System; investment-related companies such as underwriters, brokerages, and mutual funds; industry utilities such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Automated Clearing House, and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications; and third party processors that provide electronic processing services to financial institutions, including data and network management and check processing.
Virtually all American economic activity depends upon the functioning of the financial services industry. Today, most financial transactions that express National wealth are performed and recorded electronically. Virtually all transactions involving banks and other financial institutions happen electronically. Essentially all record- keeping of financial transactions involves information stored electronically. The financial services industry has evolved to the point that it would be impossible to operate without the efficiencies, speeds, and processing and storage capabilities of electronic information technology.
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, demonstrated the vulnerabilities arising from the significant interdependencies of the Nation’s critical infrastructures. The attacks disrupted all critical infrastructures in New York City, including power, transportation, and telecommunications. Consequently, operations in key financial markets were interrupted, increasing liquidity risks for the United States financial system.11
The Interagency Paper,12 which was jointly issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), specifies clearing and settlement systems as the most 11 James J. MacAndrews and Simmon M. Potter, “Liquidity Effects of the Events of September 11, 2001,”
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, November 2002. 12 The Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Securities and
Exchange Commission, Interagency Paper on Sound Practices to Strengthen the Resilience of the US Financial System, September 5, 2002.
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critical business operations at risk for financial markets.13 Because financial markets are highly interdependent, a wide-scale disruption of core clearing and settlement processes would have an immediate systemic effect on critical financial markets.14
Over the past couple of decades, the American economy has become increasingly resilient to shocks. Deregulated financial markets, far more flexible labor markets, and, more recently, the major advances in information technology have enhanced our ability to absorb disruptions and recover. In the past, our economy has quickly regained its previous levels following the devastation of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and myriad other natural disasters that periodically batter various regions of our country. Although the trauma of September 11 shares some characteristics with such disruptions, the differences are important. In contrast to natural disasters, last week's events are of far greater concern because they strike at the roots of our free society, one aspect of which is our market-driven economy. All modern economies require the confidence that free-market institutions are firmly in place and that commitments made today by market participants will be honored not only tomorrow, but for years into the future. The greater the degree of confidence in the state of future markets, the greater the level of long-term investment. The shock of September 11, by markedly raising the degree of uncertainty about the future, has the potential to result, for a time, in a pronounced disengagement from future commitments. And that, in the short run, would imply a lessened current level of activity. Indeed, much economic activity ground to a halt last week. But the foundations of our free society remain sound, and I am confident that we will recover and prosper as we have in the past. As a consequence of the spontaneous and almost universal support that we received from around the world, an agreement on a new round of multilateral trade negotiations now seems more feasible. Such an outcome would lead to a stronger global market system. A successful round would not only significantly enhance world economic growth but also answer terrorism with a firm reaffirmation of our commitment to open and free societies.
—Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan, The condition of the financial markets Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, US Senate September 20, 2001
Moreover, in December 2002, the FRB revised its policy and procedures for NS/EP telecommunications programs administered by the National Communications System (NCS) to identify those functions supporting the Federal Reserve’s NS/EP mission to maintain national liquidity.15 The FRB expanded the scope of services that would seriously affect continued financial operations if a telecommunications disruption
13 Ibid., pg. 5. 14 Systemic risk includes the risk that the failure of one participant in a transfer system or financial market
to meet its required obligations will cause other participants to be unable to meet their obligations when due, causing significant liquidity or credit problems or threatening the stability of financial markets. The use of the term “systemic risk” in this report is based on the international definition of systemic risk in payments and settlement systems provided in Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, Bank for International Settlements, “A Glossary of Terms in Payment and Settlement Systems,” 2001.
15 Federal Register, vol. 67, no. 236, Monday, December 9, 2002. Notice, “Federal Reserve Board Sponsorship for Priority Telecommunication Services of Organizations That Are Important to National Security/ Emergency Preparedness,” http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/other/2002/2002 1203/attachment.pdf.
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of “a few minutes to one day” occurred. 16 These functions, which are listed below, require same-day recovery and are critical to the operation and liquidity of banks and the stability of financial markets:
Large-value inter-bank funds transfer, securities transfer, or payment- related services, such as Fedwire, Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS), and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT)
Automated clearinghouse (ACH) operators
Key clearing and settlement utilities
Treasury automated auction and processing system
Large-dollar participants of these systems and utilities
The increasing dependence of the United States on an electronic economy, so beneficial to the creation and preservation of wealth, also adds to the adverse effects that would be produced by an EMP attack. The electronic technologies that are the foundation of the financial infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to EMP. These systems are also potentially vulnerable to EMP indirectly through other critical infrastructures, such as the electric power grid and telecommunications.
RECOMMENDED MITIGATION AND RESPONSIBILITY
Securing the financial services industry from the EMP threat is vital to the national security of the United States. The Federal government must assure that this system can survive sufficiently to preclude serious, long-term consequences.
The Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Department of the Treasury, in cooperation with other relevant agencies, must develop contingency plans to ride out and recover key financial systems promptly from an EMP attack.
Key financial services include those means and resources that provide the general population with cash, credit, and other liquidity required to buy food, fuel, and other essential goods and services. We must protect the Nation’s financial networks, banking records, and data retrieval systems that support cash, check, credit, debit, and other transactions through judicious balance of hardening, redundancy, and contingency plans.
16 Federal Reserve Board Sponsorship for Priority Telecommunications Services of Organizations That Are
Important to National Security/Emergency Preparedness, Federal Register, Vol. 67, No. 236, Monday, December 2003, Notices, p. 72958.
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The Federal government must work with the private sector to assure the protection and effective recovery of essential financial records and services infrastructure components from all deliberate adverse events, including EMP attack. Implementation of the recommendations made by the Department of the Treasury, the FRB, and the SEC in their Interagency Paper on Sound Practices to Strengthen the Resilience of the US Financial System to meet sabotage and cyber-threats that could engender requirements for protection and recovery should be expanded to include expeditious recovery from EMP attack:
“Every organization in the financial services industry should identify all clearing and settlement activities in each critical financial market in which it is a core clearing and settlement organization or plays a significant role” that could be threatened by EMP attack.
Industry should “determine appropriate recovery and resumption objectives for clearing and settlement activities in support of critical markets” following an EMP attack.
Industry should be prepared to cope with an EMP attack by maintaining “sufficient geographically dispersed resources to meet recovery and resumption objectives…. Backup sites should not rely on the same infrastructure components (e.g., transportation, telecommunications, water supply, electric power) used by the primary site. Moreover, the operation of such sites should not be impaired by a wide-scale evacuation at or inaccessibility of staff that service the primary site.”
Industry should, “Routinely use or test recovery and resumption arrangements…. It is critical for firms to test backup facilities of markets, core clearing and settlement organizations, and third-party service providers to ensure connectivity, capacity, and the integrity of data transmission” against an EMP attack.
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FUEL/ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
The vulnerabilities of this sector are produced by the responses of the electronic control systems that provide and utilize the near-real-time data flows needed to operate the fuel/energy infrastructure efficiently, as well as to identify and quickly react to equipment malfunctions or untoward incidents. EMP could also cause control or data- sensor malfunctions that are not easily discernible, leading to counterproductive operational decisions. Process control systems are critical to the operation and control of petroleum refineries, and little or no notice of an outage significantly increases the potential for damage during an emergency shutdown. Communications systems that are critical for operational control represent another locus of vulnerability. Communications are also critical in refineries to ensure safety of on-site personnel, the adjacent population, and the surrounding environment. The energy distribution infrastructure is also critically dependent on the availability of commercial power to operate the numerous pumps, valves and other electrical equipment that are required for a functional infrastructure.
DHS must develop a contingency plan that will provide strategy for protection and recovery for this sector, to include actions to be taken by both Government and industry. Government should establish a national inventory of parts for those items with long lead-times or that would be in demand in the event of a catastrophic event such as an EMP attack. The Energy Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAAC) should, with government funding, expand its mission to address EMP issues, and the government should work with the private sector to implement the general approach described in Strategy and Recommendations, page 11.
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TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
NATURE OF THE PROBLEM
America’s transportation sector is often addressed as a single infrastructure, but in reality its multiple modes provide for several separate infrastructures. Rail includes the freight railroad and commuter rail infrastructures; road includes the trucking and automobile infrastructures; water includes the maritime shipping and inland waterway infrastructures; and air includes the commercial and general aviation infrastructures.
As recognized by the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) Information Infrastructure Group Report:17
The transportation industry is increasingly reliant on information technology and public information-transporting networks.
Although a nationwide disruption of the transportation infrastructure may be unlikely, even a local or regional disruption could have a significant impact. Due to the diversity and redundancy of the US transportation system, the infrastructure is not at risk of nationwide disruption resulting from information system failure. Nonetheless, a disruption of the transportation information infrastructure on a regional or local scale has potential for widespread economic and national security effects.
Electronics vulnerable to EMP permeate the transportation infrastructures.
Marketplace pressures and increasing utilization of IT make large-scale, multimodal disruptions more likely in the future. As the infrastructure becomes more interconnected and interdependent, the transportation industry will increasingly rely on information technology to perform its most basic business functions. As this occurs, it becomes more likely that information system failures could result in large- scale disruptions of multiple modes of the transportation infrastructure.
There is a need for a broad-based infrastructure assurance awareness program to assist all modes of transportation.
The transportation industry could leverage ongoing research and development initiatives to improve the security of the transportation information infrastructure.
17 NSTAC Information Infrastructure Group Report, June 1999, <http://www.ncs.gov/NSTAC/NSTACXXII/
Reports/NSTAC22-IIG.pdf.
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There is a need for closer coordination between the transportation industry and other critical infrastructures.
The imperative to achieve superior performance has also led to a tremendous increase in the use of electronics that are potentially vulnerable to EMP. The internal combustion engine provides a familiar example of this phenomenon. Modern engines utilize electronics to increase performance, increase fuel efficiency, reduce emissions, increase diagnostic capability, and increase safety.
To gauge the degree of vulnerability of transportation infrastructures to EMP, the Commission has conducted an assessment of selected components of these infrastructures that are necessary to their operations. The assessment relied on testing where feasible, surveys and analyses for equipment and facilities for which testing was impractical, and reference to similarities to equipment for which EMP vulnerability data exists.
Based on this assessment, significant degradation of the transportation infrastructures are likely to occur in the immediate aftermath of an EMP attack. For example, municipal road traffic will likely be severely congested, possibly to the point of wide-area gridlock, as a result of traffic light malfunctions and the fraction of operating cars and trucks that will experience both temporary and in some cases unrecoverable engine shutdown. Railroad traffic will stop if communications with railroad control centers are lost or railway signals malfunction. Commercial air traffic will likely cease operations for safety and other traffic control reasons. Ports will stop loading and unloading ships until commercial power and cargo hauling infrastructures are restored.
The ability of the major transportation infrastructure components to recover depends on the plans in place and the availability of resources—including spare parts and support from other critical infrastructures upon which transportation is dependent. Transportation infrastructures have emergency response procedures in place; however, they do not explicitly address conditions that may exist for an EMP attack, such as little or no warning time and simultaneous disruptions over wide areas. Restoration times will depend on the planning and training carried out, and on the availability of services from other infrastructures—notably power, fuel, and telecommunications.
STRATEGY FOR PROTECTION AND RECOVERY RAILROADS
Railroad operations are designed to continue under stressed conditions. Backup power and provisioning is provided for operations to continue for days or even weeks at reduced capacity. However, some existing emergency procedures, such as transferring
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operations to backup sites, rely on significant warning time, such as may be received in a weather forecast before a hurricane. An EMP attack may occur without warning, thereby compromising the viability of available emergency procedures. Therefore, under the overall leadership of the DHS, the government and private sectors should work together to implement the general approach described in Strategy and Recommendations, page 11.
Specific actions should include:
Heighten railroad officials’ awareness of the possibility of EMP attack without warning that would produce wide-area, long-term disruption and damage to electronic systems.
Perform test-based EMP assessments of railroad traffic control centers and retrofit modest EMP protection into these facilities, thereby minimizing the potential for adverse long term EMP effects. The emphasis of this effort should be on electronic control and telecommunication systems.
TRUCKING AND AUTOMOBILES
Emphasizing prevention and emergency clearing of traffic congestion in this area, DHS should coordinate a government and private sector program to:
Initiate an outreach program to educate State and local authorities and traffic engineers on EMP effects and the expectation of traffic signal malfunctions, vehicle disruption and damage, and consequent traffic congestion.
Work with municipalities to formulate recovery plans, including emergency clearing of traffic congestion and provisioning spare controller cards that could be used to repair controller boxes.
Sponsor development of economical protection modules—preliminary results for which are already available from Commission-sponsored research—that could be retrofitted into existing traffic signal controller boxes and installed in new controller boxes during manufacture.
Sponsor development of automobile robustness specifications and testing for EMP. These specifications should be implemented by augmenting existing specifications for gaining immunity to transient electromagnetic interference (EMI), rather than by developing separate specifications for EMP.
MARITIME SHIPPING
The essential port operations to be safeguarded are ship traffic control, cargo loading and unloading, and cargo storage and movement (incoming and outgoing). Ship traffic control is provided by the Coast Guard, which has robust backup procedures in
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place. Cargo storage and movement are covered by other transportation infrastructure recommendations. Therefore, focusing on cargo operations in this area, DHS should coordinate a government and private sector program to:
Heighten port officials’ awareness of the wide geographic coverage of EMP fields, the risk due to loss of commercial power for protracted time- intervals, and the need to evaluate the practicality of providing emergency generators for at least some portion of port and cargo operations.
Assess the vulnerability of electric-powered loading/unloading equipment. Review the electromagnetic protection already in place for lightning, and require augmentation of this protection to provide significant EMP robustness.
Coordinate findings with the “real-time” repair crews to ensure they are aware of the potential for EMP damage. Based on the assessment results, recommend spares provisions so that repairs can be made in a timely manner.
Assess port data centers for the potential loss of data in electronic media. Provide useful measures of protection against EMP causing loss of function and/or data.
Provide protected off-line spare parts and computers sufficient for minimum essential operations.
Provide survivable radio and satellite communication capabilities for the Coast Guard and the Nation’s ports.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
In priority order, it must be ensured that airplanes caught in the air during an EMP attack can land safely, that critical recovery assets are protected, and that contingency plans for an extended no-fly period are developed. Thus, DHS should coordinate a government program in cooperation with the FAA to perform an operational assessment of the air traffic control system to identify a “thin-line” that provides the minimal essential capabilities necessary to return the air traffic control capability to at least a basic level of service after an EMP attack. Based on the results of this operational assessment, develop tactics for protection, operational workarounds, spares provisioning, and repairs to return to a minimum-essential service level.
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FOOD INFRASTRUCTURE
NATURE OF THE PROBLEM
EMP can damage or disrupt the infrastructure that supplies food to the population of the United States. Recent federal efforts to better protect the food infrastructure from terrorist attack tend to focus on preventing small-scale disruption of the food infrastructure, such as would result from terrorists poisoning some food. Yet an EMP attack could potentially disrupt the food infrastructure over a large region encompassing many cities for a protracted period of weeks to months.
Technology has made possible a dramatic revolution in US agricultural productivity. The transformation of the United States from a nation of farmers to a nation where less than 2 percent of the population is able to feed the other 98 percent and supply export markets is made possible only by technological advancements that, since 1900, have increased the productivity of the modern farmer by more than 50-fold. Technology, in the form of knowledge, machines, modern fertilizers and pesticides, high-yield crops and feeds, is the key to this revolution in food production. Much of the technology for food production directly or indirectly depends upon electricity, transportation, and other infrastructures.
The distribution system is a chokepoint in the US food infrastructure. Supermarkets typically carry only enough food to provision the local population for 1 to 3 days. Supermarkets replenish their stocks on virtually a daily basis from regional warehouses that usually carry enough food to supply a multi-county area for about one month. The large quantities of food kept in regional warehouses will do little to alleviate a crisis if it cannot be distributed to the population in a timely manner. Distribution depends largely on a functioning transportation system.
MITIGATION AND RESPONSIBILITY
Federal, state, and regional governments should establish plans for assuring that food is available to the general population in case of major disruption of the food infrastructure. Planning to locate, preserve, deliver, distribute, and ration existing stockpiles of processed and unprocessed food, including food stockpiled by the Department of Agriculture, Department of Defense, and other government agencies, will
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be an important component of maintaining the food supply. Planning to protect, deliver, and ration food from regional warehouses, under conditions where an EMP attack has disrupted the power, transportation, and other infrastructures for a protracted period, should be a priority. Plans to process and deliver private and government grain stockpiles would significantly supplement the processed food stored in regional warehouses. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service, total private grain stockpiles in the United States amount to over 255 million metric tons. Federal grain stockpiles held by the Commodity Credit Corporation exceed 1.7 million metric tons, with 1.6 million metric tons of that amount dedicated to the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust for Overseas Emergency. Planning should include an assessment of how much food the population of the United States would need in an emergency when the food infrastructure is disrupted for a protracted period. Food stockpiles should be increased if existing stockpiles of food appear to be inadequate.
Presidential initiatives have designated the Department of Homeland Security as the lead agency responsible for the security of the food infrastructure, overseeing and working with the Department of Agriculture. Currently, under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (the Stafford Act), the President “is authorized and directed to assure that adequate stocks of food will be ready and conveniently available for emergency mass feeding or distribution” in the United States. The Stafford Act should be amended to provide for plans to locate, protect, and distribute existing private and government stockpiles of food, and to provide plans for distribution of existing food stockpiles to the general population in the event of a national emergency.
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WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE
National-level responsibilities have already been assigned to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to protect the water infrastructure from terrorist threats. A recent Presidential Directive establishes new national policy for protection of our Nation’s critical infrastructures against terrorist threats that could cause catastrophic health effects.18 EPA is the designated lead agency for protection of drinking water and water treatment systems. DHS and EPA should ensure that protection includes EMP attack among the recognized threats to the water infrastructure.
18 Homeland Security Presidential Directive – 7, Critical Infrastructure Identification, Prioritization, and
Protection. December 17, 2003.
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EMERGENCY SERVICES VULNERABILITIES
An EMP attack will result in diminished capabilities of emergency services during a time of greatly increased demand upon them. The EMP vulnerability of emergency services systems is primarily due to the susceptibility of computer and communications equipment, and secondarily due to likely commercial electric power outages. Recent test results indicate that some failures of computers and network equipment can be expected at low EMP field levels; at higher levels, much more pervasive equipment failures are expected. Mobile radio communications equipment can be expected to experience disruption and failure at EMP threat levels that are likely to be experienced. Moreover, emergency services are critically dependent on the commercial telephone network, on electric power, and thus on fuel for backup generators. Degradation in these capabilities following an EMP attack is likely, as discussed previously, thereby providing another source of cascading infrastructure failure.
RECOMMENDED STRATEGY FOR PROTECTION AND RECOVERY
The Department of Homeland Security must develop a strategy for protection and recovery of emergency services that emphasizes the inclusion of the EMP threat in planning and training and the establishment of technical standards for EMP protection of critical equipment. The Department of Homeland Security, including its Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and state and local governments should augment existing plans and procedures to address both immediate and long-term emergency services response to EMP attack. Plans should include provision for early warning notification, and a protection/recovery protocol based on graceful degradation and rapid recovery that emphasizes a balance between limited hardening and provisioning of spare components, as well as training for their use in emergency reconstitution. In addition, the Department of Homeland Security should provide technical support, guidance, and assistance to state and local governments, as well as to other federaldDepartments and agencies, to ensure the EMP survivability or rapid recovery of critical emergency services networks and equipment.
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SPACE SYSTEMS
Over the past few years, there has been increased focus on US space systems in low Earth orbits and their unique vulnerabilities, among which is their susceptibility to nuclear detonations at high altitudes—the same events that produce EMP. It is also important to include, for the protection of a satellite-based system in any orbit, its control system and ground infrastructure, including up-link and down-link facilities.
Commercial satellites support many significant services for the Federal government, including communications, remote sensing, weather forecasting, and imaging. The national security and homeland security communities use commercial satellites for critical activities, including direct and backup communications, emergency response services, and continuity of operations during emergencies. Satellite services are important for national security and emergency preparedness telecommunications because of their ubiquity and separation from other communications infrastructures.
The Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization conducted an assessment of space activities that support US national security interests, and concluded that space systems are vulnerable to a range of attacks due to their political, economic, and military value.19 Satellites in low Earth orbit generally are at very considerable risk of severe lifetime degradation or outright failure from collateral radiation effects arising from an EMP attack on ground targets.
The Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Defense should jointly execute a systematic assessment of the significance of each space system, particularly those in low Earth orbits, to missions such as the continuity of government, strategic military force protection, and the protection of critical tactical force support functions. Information from this assessment and associated cost and risk judgments will inform senior government decision making regarding protection and performance- assurance of these systems, so that missions can be executed with the required degrees of surety in the face of the possible threats.
19 Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization,
January 11, 2001.
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GOVERNMENT
DHS should give priority to measures to ensure that the President and other senior Federal officials can exercise informed leadership of the Nation in the aftermath of an EMP attack, and to improving post-attack response capabilities at all levels of government.
The President, Secretary of Homeland Security, and other senior officials must be able to manage the national recovery in an informed and reliable manner. Current national capabilities were developed for Cold War scenarios in which it was imperative that the President have assured connectivity to strategic retaliatory forces. While this is still an important requirement, there is a new need for considerably broader, robust connectivity between national leaders, government at all levels, and key organizations within each infrastructure sector so that the status of infrastructures can be assessed in a reliable and comprehensive manner and their recovery and reconstitution intelligently managed. The Department of Homeland Security, working through the Homeland Security Council, should give high priority to identifying and achieving the minimum levels of robust connectivity needed for recovery following EMP attack. In doing this, DHS should give particular emphasis to exercises that evaluate the robustness of the solutions being implemented.
Working with state authorities and private-sector organizations, the Department of Homeland Security should develop draft protocols for implementation by emergency and other government responders following EMP attack, Red Team these extensively, and then institutionalize validated protocols through issuance of standards, training, and exercises.
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KEEPING THE CITIZENRY INFORMED
Support to National leadership also involves measures to ensure that the President can communicate effectively with the citizenry. Although the US can improve prevention, protection, and recovery in the face of an EMP attack to levels below those that would have catastrophic consequences for the Nation, an EMP attack would still cause substantial disruption, even under the best of circumstances. Many citizens would be without power, communications and other services for days—or perhaps substantially longer—before full recovery could occur. During that interval, it will be crucial to provide a reliable channel of information to those citizens to let them know what has happened, the current situation, when help of what types for them might be available, what their governments are doing, and the host of questions which, if not answered, are certain to create more instability and suffering for the affected individuals, communities, and the Nation as a whole.
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PROTECTION OF MILITARY FORCES
The end of the Cold War relaxed the discipline for achieving EMP survivability within the Department of Defense, and gave rise to the perception that an erosion of EMP survivability of military forces was an acceptable risk. EMP simulation and test facilities have been mothballed or dismantled, and research concerning EMP phenomena, hardening design, testing, and maintenance has been substantially decreased. However, the emerging threat environment, characterized by a wide spectrum of actors that include near-peers, established nuclear powers, rogue nations, sub-national groups, and terrorist organizations that either now have access to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles or may have such access over the next 15 years have combined to place the risk of EMP attack and adverse consequences on the US to a level that is not acceptable.
Current policy is to continue to provide EMP protection to strategic forces and their controls; however, the end of the Cold War has relaxed the discipline for achieving and maintaining that capability within these forces. The Department of Defense must continue to pursue the strategy for strategic systems to ensure that weapons delivery systems of the New Triad are EMP survivable, and that there is, at a minimum, a survivable “thin-line” of command and control capability to detect threats and direct the delivery systems. The Department of Defense has the capability to do this, and the costs can be within reasonable and practical limits.
The situation for general-purpose forces (GPF) is more complex. The success of these forces depends on the application of a superior force at times and places of our choosing. We accomplish this by using a relatively small force with enormous technological advantages due to superior information flow, advanced warfighting capabilities, and well-orchestrated joint combat operations. Our increasing dependence on advanced electronics systems results in the potential for an increased EMP vulnerability of our technologically advanced forces, and if unaddressed makes EMP employment by an adversary an attractive asymmetric option.
The United States must not permit an EMP attack to defeat its capability to prevail. The Commission believes it is not practical to protect all of the tactical forces of the US and its coalition partners from EMP in a regional conflict. A strategy of replacement and reinforcement will be necessary. However, there is a set of critical capabilities that is essential to tactical regional conflicts that must be available to these
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reinforcements. This set includes satellite navigation systems, satellite and airborne intelligence and targeting systems, an adequate communications infrastructure, and missile defense.
The current capability to field a tactical force for regional conflict is inadequate in light of this requirement. Even though it has been US policy to create EMP-hardened tactical systems, the strategy for achieving this has been to use the DoD acquisition process. This has provided many equipment components that meet criteria for durability in an EMP environment, but this does not result in confidence that fielded forces, as a system, can reliably withstand EMP attack. Adherence to the equipment acquisition policy also has been spotty, and the huge challenge of organizing and fielding an EMP- durable tactical force has been a disincentive to applying the rigor and discipline needed to do so.
EMP durability should be provided to a selected set of tactical systems such that it will be practical to field tactical forces that cannot be neutralized by an EMP attack. The Department of Defense must perform a capabilities-based assessment of the most significant EMP threats to its tactical capabilities and develop strategies for coping with these threats in a reliable and effective manner.
Overall, little can be accomplished without the sustained attention and support of the leadership of the Department of Defense and Congress. This will require the personal involvement and cooperation among the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the Service Chiefs, and the appropriate congressional oversight committees in creating the necessary climate of concern; overseeing the development of strategy; and reaffirming the criticality of survivable and endurable military forces, including command, control, and communications (C3) in updated policy guidance, implementation directives, and instructions. Congressionally mandated annual reports from the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs on the status and progress for achieving EMP survivability of our fighting forces will emphasize the importance of the issue and help ensure that the necessary attention and support of the DoD leadership continues.
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APPENDIX A THE COMMISSION AND ITS METHOD
The Commission used a capability-based methodology to estimate potential EMP
threats over the next 15 years.1 The objective was to identify the range of plausible adversary EMP attack capabilities that cannot be excluded by prudent decision makers responsible for national and homeland security.
...a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. The contingency we have not considered looks strange; what looks strange is therefore improbable; what seems improbable need not be considered seriously. —Thomas C. Schelling, Foreword, in Roberta Wohlstetter,
Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, Stanford University Press, 1962, p. vii.
Bases for this assessment included current intelligence estimates of present and near-term military capabilities; current and past engineering accomplishments (what are adversaries likely to be capable of achieving, given accomplishments in other programs at comparable stages of development?); and trends impacting adversary military capabilities through 2018. In line with its capabilities-based approach, the Commission did not attempt to establish the relative likelihood of EMP strikes versus other forms of attack.
Intelligence community organizations and the National Nuclear Security Administration’s nuclear weapon laboratories (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) provided excellent technical support to the Commission’s analyses.2 The Institute for Defense Analyses hosted and developed technical analyses for the Commission. While it benefited from these inputs, the Commission developed an independent assessment. Views expressed in this report are solely attributable to the Commission.
The Russian Federation (RF) has a sophisticated understanding of EMP that derives in part from the test era when the Soviet Union did high-altitude atmospheric tests
1 Rob Mahoney, Capabilities-Based Methodology for Assessing Potential Adversary Capabilities, March
2004. 2 The Commission’s report and associated documents provide the necessarily classified assessments of
future adversary capabilities for EMP attack and weapon issues.
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over its own territory, impacting civilian infrastructures. To benefit from Russian expertise, the Commission:
Sponsored research projects at Russian scientific institutions.
Hosted a September 2003 US/RF symposium on EMP at which presentations were given by Russian general officers.
Sponsored a December 2003 technical seminar on EMP attended by scientists from the Russian Federation and the United States.
The Commission also reviewed additional relevant foreign research and programs
and assessed foreign perspectives on EMP attacks.
In considering EMP, the Commission also gave attention to the coincident nuclear effects that would result from a detonation that produces EMP, e.g., possible disruption of the operations of, or damage to, satellites in space.
Different types of nuclear weapons produce different EMP effects. The Commission limited its attention to the most strategically significant cases in which detonation of one or few nuclear warheads could result in widespread, potentially long- duration disruption or damage that places at risk the functioning of American society or the effectiveness of US military forces.
In addition to examining potential threats, the Commission was charged to assess US vulnerabilities (civilian and military) to EMP and to recommend measures to counter EMP threats. For these purposes, the Commission reviewed research and best practices within the United States and other countries. Early in this review it became apparent that only limited EMP vulnerability testing had been accomplished for modern electronic systems and components. To partially remedy this deficit, the Commission sponsored illustrative testing; results are presented in the Commission’s report.
Commissioners brought to this task a wide range of expertise, including service as an advisor to the President; senior management experience in both civilian and military agencies, national laboratories, and the corporate sector; and technical expertise in the design of nuclear weapons and in the hardening of systems against nuclear weapon effects.
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APPENDIX B COMMISSIONERS
Dr. William R. Graham is Chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack. He is also Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of National Security Research Inc. (NSR), a Washington-based company that conducts technical, operational, and policy research and analysis related to US national security. In the recent past he has served as a member of several high-level study groups, including the Department of Defense Transformation Study Group, the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization (the Rumsfeld Commission on Space), and the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (also led by Hon. Donald Rumsfeld). From 1986–89 Dr. Graham was the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy while he served concurrently as Science Advisor to President Reagan, Chairman of the Federal Joint Telecommunications Resources Board, and member of the Arms Control Experts Group. For 11 years he served as a member of the Board of Directors of the Watkins-Johnson Company. Dr. John S. Foster, Jr., is Chairman of the Board of GKN Aerospace Transparency Systems, chairman of Technology Strategies and Alliances, and consultant to Northrop Grumman Corporation, Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., Ninesigma, and Defense Group. He retired from TRW as Vice President, Science and Technology, in 1988 and continued to serve on the Board of Directors of TRW from 1988 to 1994. Dr. Foster was Director of Defense Research and Engineering for the Department of Defense from 1965–1973, serving under both Democratic and Republican administrations. In other distinguished service, Dr. Foster has been on the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, the Army Scientific Advisory Panel, and the Ballistic Missile Defense Advisory Committee, Advanced Research Projects Agency. Until 1965, he was a panel consultant to the President’s Science Advisory Committee, and from 1973–1990 he was a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. He is a member of the Defense Science Board, which he chaired from January 1990–June 1993. From 1952–1962, Dr. Foster was with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLL), where he began as a Division Leader in experimental physics, became Associate Director in 1958, and became Director of LLL and Associate Director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in 1961. Mr. Earl Gjelde is the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Summit Group International, Ltd.; Summit Energy Group, Ltd.; Summit Energy International 2000, LLC; and Summit Power NW, LLC, primary participants in the development of over 5,000 megawatts of natural gas fired electric and wind generating plants within the United States. He has also held a number of government posts, serving as President George Herbert Walker Bush’s Under (now called Deputy) Secretary and Chief Operating Officer of the US Department of the Interior (1989) and as President Ronald Reagan’s Under Secretary and Chief Operating Officer of the US Department of the Interior (1985–1988). While in the Reagan administration he served concurrently as Special Envoy to China (1987), Deputy Chief of Mission for the US-Japan Science and Technology Treaty (1987–1988), and Counselor for Policy to the Director of the National Critical Materials Council (1986–1988); the Counselor to the Secretary and Chief Operating Officer of the US Department of Energy (1982-1985); and Deputy Administrator,
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Chief Operating Officer, and Power Manager of the Bonneville Power Administration (1980- 1982). Prior to 1980, he was a principal officer of the Bonneville Power Administration.
Dr. Robert J. Hermann is a senior partner of Global Technology Partners, LLC, a Boston-based investment firm that focuses on technology, defense aerospace, and related businesses worldwide. In 1998, Dr. Hermann retired from United Technologies Corporation, where he was Senior Vice President, Science and Technology. Prior to joining UTC in 1982, Dr. Hermann served 20 years with the National Security Agency with assignments in research and development, operations, and NATO. In 1977, he was appointed Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Communications, Command, Control, and Intelligence. In 1979, he was named Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Research, Development, and Logistics and concurrently was Director of the National Reconnaissance Office.
Mr. Henry (Hank) M. Kluepfel is a Corporate Vice President for Corporate Development and Chief Scientist in the Enterprise Security Solutions Group of SAIC. He is the company’s leading cyberspace security advisor to the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committeel (NSTAC) and the Network Reliability and Interoperability Council (NRIC). Mr. Kluepfel is widely recognized for his 30-plus years of experience in security technology research, design, tools, forensics, risk reduction, education, and awareness, and he is the author of industry’s de facto standard security base guideline for the Signaling System Number 7(SS7) networks connecting and controlling the world’s public telecommunications networks. In past affiliations with Telcordia Technologies (formerly Bellcore), AT&T, BellSouth and Bell Labs, he led industry efforts to protect, detect, contain, and mitigate electronic and physical intrusions and led the industry’s understanding of the need to balance technical, legal, and policy-based countermeasures to the then emerging hacker threat. He is recognized as a Certified Protection Professional by the American Society of Industrial Security and is a Senior Member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
General (USAF, Ret.) Richard L. Lawson is Chairman of Energy, Environment and Security Group, Ltd., and former President and CEO of the National Mining Association. He also serves as Vice Chairman of the Atlantic Council of the U.S; Chairman of the Energy Policy Committee of the US Energy Association; Chairman of the United States delegation to the World Mining Congress; and Chairman of the International Committee for Coal Research. Active duty positions included serving as Military Assistant to the President; Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe; Director for Plans and Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff; Deputy Director of Operations, Headquarters US Air Force; and Deputy Commander in Chief, US European Command.
Dr. Gordon K. Soper is Group Vice President of Defense Group Inc., responsible for broad direction of corporate goals relating to company support of government customers in areas of countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, chemical/biological defense and domestic preparedness, treaty verification research, nuclear arms control and development of new business areas and growth of technical staff. He provides senior-level technical support on a range of task areas to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), the Chemical and Biological National Security Program of National Nuclear Security Administration, and the Counterproliferation and Chem/Bio Defense Office of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Previously, Dr. Soper was Principal Deputy to the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs (ATSD (NCB); Director, Office of Strategic and Theater Nuclear Forces Command, Control and Communications (C3) of the Office of the
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Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3I); and Associate Director for Engineering and Technology/Chief Scientist at the Defense Communications Agency.
Dr. Lowell L. Wood, Jr., is a member of the Technical Advisory Group, US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence; a member of the Undersea Warfare Experts Group, US House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services; a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and Stanford University; and an officer and member of the Board of Directors of the Fannie and John Hertz Foundation. He is also a member of the Director’s technical staff, University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he has held numerous positions since 1972.
Dr. Joan Woodard is Executive Vice President and Deputy Director of Sandia National Laboratories, responsible for all of Sandia’s programs, operations, staff, and facilities. She is also responsible for the laboratory’s strategic planning. Prior to her current appointment, Dr. Woodard was Vice President of the Energy, Information and Infrastructure Technology Division, where her responsibilities included energy-related projects in fossil energy, solar, wind, geothermal, geosciences, fusion, nuclear power safety and severe accident analysis, and medical isotope processing; environment-related programs in remediation, nuclear waste management and repository certification, and waste minimization; information technology programs in information surety, command and control systems, and distributed information systems; and programs responsible for security of the transportation of nuclear weapons and special nuclear materials, and safety of commercial aviation. Over 80% of the programs included industrial or academic partners, and the nature of the work ranged from basic research to prototype systems evaluation.
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RiskManagement.pdf
Risk Management Fundamentals
Homeland Security Risk Management Doctrine
April 2011
Letter from the Under Secretary 1
LETTER FROM THE UNDER SECRETARY NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE
In May 2010, the Secretary of Homeland Security established a Policy for Integrated Risk Management (IRM). Central to this policy is the premise that security partners can most effectively manage risk by working together, and that management capabilities must be built, sustained, and integrated with Federal, state, local, tribal, territorial, nongovernmental, and private sector homeland security partners. While successful integration requires implementation across the entire homeland security enterprise, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) plays an essential role in leading the unified effort to manage risks to the Nation from a diverse and complex set of hazards, including acts of terrorism, natural and manmade disasters, pandemics, cyber attacks, and transnational crime.
An essential first step in the integration of risk management is the establishment of doctrine and guidance. Risk Management Fundamentals is the first in a series of publications that will provide a structured approach for the distribution and employment of risk information and analysis efforts across the Department. While this is the capstone publication for homeland security risk management, implementation of risk management requires the combined efforts of Components to tailor and implement key risk management methods and practices. Homeland security risk management is on a positive trajectory and this publication will further enable DHS to mature and strengthen its capabilities to address homeland security risks. The key objectives of this publication are to promote a common understanding of and approach to risk management for homeland security; establish a common foundation that enables consistent risk management application and training; and support the development of a risk management culture and philosophy across DHS. Risk Management Fundamentals establishes doctrine for DHS, although concepts within the doctrine may be a useful guide to our Federal interagency partners, state and local agencies, as well as the larger homeland security community.
Risk Management Fundamentals, produced by the Office of Risk Management and Analysis, in coordination with the Office of Policy, has been vetted and approved by the DHS Risk Steering Committee, a governing body of which I serve as the Chairman. Pursuant to the authority vested in the Under Secretary for the National Protection and Programs Directorate by the Secretary of Homeland Security in Delegation Number 17001 to lead the Department’s efforts to establish a common framework to address the overall management and analysis of homeland security risk, this publication is hereby recognized and approved for official use until revised or superseded.
RAND BEERS UNDER SECRETARY NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
2 Risk Management Fundamentals
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Table of Contents 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Key Objectives ........................................................................ 5
Purpose ................................................................................................... 5
Audience ................................................................................................. 6
II. Introduction ........................................................................... 7
Homeland Security Risks ............................................................................. 7
Sound Decision Making ............................................................................... 7
The Value of Risk Management ..................................................................... 8
Risk Management Applications ...................................................................... 9
III. Homeland Security Risk Management Tenets and Principles 11
IV. A Comprehensive Approach to Risk Management ................. 13
Internal Sources of Risk ............................................................................. 13
External Sources of Risk ............................................................................ 13
Key Business Practices .............................................................................. 14
V. The Homeland Security Risk Management Process ............... 15
Risk Communications................................................................................ 15
Risk Management Processes ........................................................................ 16
Elements of the Homeland Security Risk Management Process ............................. 16
1. Define the Context ............................................................................................ 16
2. Identify Potential Risk ........................................................................................ 18
3. Assess and Analyze Risk .................................................................................... 19
4. Develop Alternatives ......................................................................................... 22
5. Decide Upon and Implement Risk Management Strategies............................................ 24
6. Evaluation and Monitoring .................................................................................. 25
7. Risk Communications ........................................................................................ 26
VI. Conclusion ........................................................................... 29
4 Risk Management Fundamentals
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Key Objectives 5
I. KEY OBJECTIVES This doctrine, Risk Management Fundamentals, serves as an authoritative statement regarding the principles and process of homeland security risk management and what they mean to homeland security planning and execution. It is intended as the capstone doctrine on risk management for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Furthermore, Risk Management Fundamentals serves as a foundational document supporting DHS risk management efforts in partnership with the homeland security enterprise.1
Risk Management Fundamentals is intended to help homeland security leaders, supporting staffs, program managers, analysts, and operational personnel develop a framework to make risk management an integral part of planning, preparing, and executing organizational missions. The development of homeland security risk management doctrine is an essential element in promoting a risk-informed culture enabling training, capability development, and integration across DHS to strengthen and improve the Nation’s security. Risk Management Fundamentals articulates a desired end-state that DHS aspires to achieve in promoting risk management. This doctrine is not a substitute for independent thought or innovation in applying these principles and concepts. Simply reading the doctrine will not make one adept in managing risks, nor will attempting to follow the ideas herein as if they were a checklist; rather, doctrine serves to shape how one thinks about the issues that you are considering and should be applied based on the operating environment. Homeland security practitioners should compare the doctrine herein against their own experience and think about why, when, and how it applies to their situation and area of responsibility. Purpose The purpose of this document is to: Promote a common understanding of, and
approach to, risk management;
Establish organizational practices that should be followed by DHS Components;
Provide a foundation for conducting risk assessments and evaluating risk management options;
Set the doctrinal underpinning for institutionalizing a risk management culture through consistent application and training on risk management principles and practices; and
Educate and inform homeland security stakeholders in risk management applications,
1 As noted in the 2010 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review Report, the homeland security enterprise “refers to the collective efforts and shared responsibilities of Federal, state, local, tribal, territorial, non-governmental, private volunteer, and private- sector partners — as well as individuals, families, and communities — to maintain critical homeland security capabilities. It connotes a broad-based community with a common interest in the safety and well being of America and American society.”
A Note on the Scope and Application of this Document Risk Management Fundamentals
captures the theoretical underpinnings of homeland security risk management and articulates principles and practices
that should be strived for across homeland security decision making.
In doing so, this document should not be read as criteria to be evaluated
against, but instead as a statement of aspirations for improved homeland
security decision making, applied in a variety of operating environments,
many of which face constraints.
6 Risk Management Fundamentals
including the assessment of capability, program, and operational performance, and the use of such assessments for resource and policy decisions.
Audience The principal audiences for Risk Management Fundamentals are DHS employees, including: Executives who establish strategic and operational priorities, select courses of action, and allocate
resources; Program Managers and Planners who turn executive decisions into actionable, implementable
plans and oversee the day-to-day execution of these plans;
Operational Personnel who implement plans and programs using specific, tactical and operational risk management tools; and
Risk and Decision Analysts who collect, assess, and present risk information to help executives make decisions, aid program managers and planners in explaining decisions and approaches to stakeholders, and assist operational personnel in connecting their work to the desired outcome.
Risk Management Fundamentals may be helpful to Federal interagency partners, state and local agencies, as well as the larger homeland security community.
Introduction 7
II. INTRODUCTION
“. . . a safe and secure homeland must mean more than preventing terrorist attacks from being carried out. It must also ensure that the liberties of all Americans are assured, privacy is protected, and the means by which we interchange with the world — through travel, lawful immigration, trade, commerce, and exchange — are secured. Ultimately, homeland security is about effectively managing risks to the Nation’s security.” ~ Quadrennial Homeland Security Review Report, 2010
Homeland Security Risks The United States homeland security environment is complex and filled with competing requirements, interests, and incentives that must be balanced and managed effectively to ensure the achievement of key national objectives. The safety, security, and resilience of the Nation are threatened by an array of hazards, including acts of terrorism, malicious activity in cyberspace, pandemics, manmade accidents, transnational crime, and natural disasters. At the same time, homeland security organizations must manage risks2
associated with workforce management, acquisitions operations, and project costs. Collectively, these external and internal risks have the potential to cause loss of life, injuries, negative psychosocial impact, environmental degradation, loss of economic activity, reduction of ability to perform mission essential functions, and loss of confidence in government capabilities.
It is the role of DHS and its partners to understand and manage these myriad homeland security risks. We live in a dynamic and uncertain world where the past does not serve as a complete guide to the future. In addition, the systems that provide the functions essential for a thriving society are increasingly intricate and interconnected. This means that potential disruptions to a system are not fully understood and can have large and unanticipated cascading effects throughout American security. Compounding this complexity is the fact that future trends — such as technological advancements, global climate change, asymmetric threats, and the evolving nature of Nation-states — have the potential to significantly alter the homeland security risk landscape in unexpected ways. Yet such emerging trends hold promise as well as peril and should be understood and managed.
2 Throughout this document, risk is defined as “the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences.” DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition.
Sound Decision Making Establishing the capability and capacity to identify, understand, and address such complex challenges and opportunities is the crux of risk management. Risk management is an approach for making and implementing improved homeland security decisions.
“Risk management is the process for identifying, analyzing, and communicating risk and accepting, avoiding, transferring, or controlling it to an acceptable level considering associated costs and benefits of any actions taken.”
- DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition
8 Risk Management Fundamentals
To improve decision making, leaders in DHS and their partners in the homeland security enterprise must practice foresight and work to understand known and uncertain risks, as best they can, in order to make sound management decisions. These leaders need to consider the risks facing the homeland to make appropriate resource tradeoffs and align management approaches. Addressing these risks and promoting security is a shared responsibility that depends on unity of effort among Federal, state, local, tribal and territorial governments, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and the citizenry as a whole. The Value of Risk Management The Secretary of Homeland Security has established the requirement for DHS to build and promote an integrated approach to homeland security risk management, working with partners across the homeland security enterprise. The Department’s role in establishing integrated risk management is to build security, safety, and resilience across domains by connecting efforts to prevent terrorism and enhance security, secure and manage our borders, enforce and administer our immigration laws, safeguard and secure cyberspace, ensure resilience to disasters, and provide essential support in assuring national and economic security. Improved homeland security depends on connecting information about risks, activities, and capabilities and using this information to guide prevention, protection, response, and recovery efforts. The establishment of sound risk management practices across DHS and the homeland security enterprise will help protect and enhance national interests, conserve resources, and assist in avoiding or mitigating the effects of emerging or unknown risks. At the organizational level, the application of risk management will complement and augment strategic and operational planning efforts, policy development, budget formulation, performance evaluation and assessments, and reporting processes. Risk management will not preclude adverse events from occurring; however, it enables national homeland security efforts to focus on those things that are likely to bring the greatest harm, and employ approaches that are likely to mitigate or prevent those incidents. Furthermore, the American people, resources, economy, and way of life are bolstered and made more resilient by anticipating, communicating, and preparing for hazards, both internal and external, through comprehensive and deliberate risk management. Risk management is not an end in and of itself, but rather part of sound organizational practices that include planning, preparedness, program evaluation, process improvement, and budget priority development. The value of a risk management approach or strategy to decision makers is not in the promotion of a particular course of action, but rather in the ability to distinguish between various choices within the larger context. Establishing the infrastructure and organizational culture to support the execution of homeland security risk management is a critical requirement for achieving the Nation’s security goals. Risk management is essential for homeland security leaders in prioritizing competing requirements and enabling comprehensive approaches to measure performance and detail progress.
Resilience and Risk Management One of the foundational concepts of
homeland security is the need to build resilient systems, communities, and
institutions that are robust, adaptable and have the capacity for rapid recovery. Resilience and risk management are
mutually reinforcing concepts.
Risk management contributes to the achievement of resilience by identifying
opportunities to build resilience into planning and resourcing to achieve risk
reduction in advance of a hazard, as well as enabling the mitigation of
consequences of any disasters that do occur.
Introduction 9
Risk Management Applications The practice of risk management allows for a systematic and comprehensive approach to homeland security decision making. Risk management promotes the development and use of risk analysis3
Strategic Planning
to inform homeland security decision making, to better inform selection among alternative strategies and actions, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the activities we undertake. Risk management applications include:
Homeland security strategies should be designed to address the risks that a particular organization faces, taking a long-term view to building capabilities that can mitigate risk through prevention, protection, response, and recovery activities. Homeland security strategies should shape how organizations approach building and sustaining capabilities.
Capabilities-based Planning Risk management allows planners to prioritize which capabilities might have the greatest return on investment in preparedness activities. Risk management can also help identify which capabilities are most relevant to an organization and identify potential capability gaps.
Resource Decisions Risk management should be a key component of an evidence-driven approach to requesting and allocating resources, including grant funding. By understanding risk, organizations can identify realistic capability requirements, fund projects that bring the greatest return on investment, describe desired outcomes and how they will mitigate risk, and explain the rationale behind those decisions in clear, objective, and transparent terms.
Operational Planning
Through risk management, organizations can better understand which scenarios are more likely to impact them, what the consequences would be, what risks merit special attention, what actions must be planned for, and what resources are likely to be needed, as well as what risks have the ability to negatively impact operations.
Exercise Planning
Risk management can be used to identify realistic scenarios for exercises, zeroing in on special threats and hazards, as well as priority capabilities and applicable assets.
Real-world Events Risk management can help decision makers weigh potential courses of action within a contextual understanding of the risk of different threats and hazards to critical assets, geographic areas, and population centers during a crisis.
Research and Development
Risk analysis can be used to inform decisions on filling homeland security gaps and identifying opportunities that may be best met with enhanced technologies and/or innovative solutions, thereby establishing priorities for long-term research and development investments.
3 Risk analysis is the “systematic examination of the components and characteristics of risk.” DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition.
10 Risk Management Fundamentals
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Homeland Security Risk Management Tenets and Principles 11
III. HOMELAND SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT TENETS AND PRINCIPLES
Risk management enables homeland security leaders to distinguish between and among alternative actions, assess capabilities, and prioritize activities and associated resources by understanding risk and its impact on their decisions. Standard risk management principles are not designed to promote uniformity or conformity; rather, they offer broad guidance that should be uniquely tailored for the specific needs of each organization. While a “one-size-fits-all” approach for homeland security risk management is neither feasible nor desirable, all DHS risk management programs should be based on two key tenets: Risk management should enhance an organization’s overall decision making process and
maximize its ability to achieve its objectives.
Risk management is used to shape and control risk, but cannot eliminate all risk. The key principles for effective risk management include: Unity of Effort
Transparency
Adaptability
Practicality
Customization
A description of each principle follows: Unity of Effort: The principal of unity of effort reiterates that homeland security risk management is an enterprise-wide process and should promote integration and synchronization with entities that share responsibility for managing risks. Risk management efforts should be coordinated and integrated among all partners, with shared or overlapping risk management responsibilities, to include Federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, as well as the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international partners. Most homeland security measures involve representatives of different organizations, and it is important that there is unity of effort amongst those charged with managing risks to ensure consistent approaches are taken and that there is a shared perspective of security challenges. Transparency: The principle of transparency establishes that effective homeland security risk management depends on open and direct communications. Transparency is vitally important in homeland security risk management due to the extent to which the decisions involved affect a broad range of stakeholders. Transparency is important for the analysis that contributes to the decision making. It includes the assumptions that supported that analysis, the uncertainty involved with it, and the communications that follow the decision. Risk management should
12 Risk Management Fundamentals
not be a “black box” exercise where analysis is hidden. Those impacted by a risk management approach should be able to validate the integrity of the approach. This principle does not countermand the times when there is need for security of sensitive or classified information; however, it does suggest that the processes and methodologies used for homeland security risk management may be shared even if the information is not. In turn, transparency will foster honest and realistic dialogue about opportunities and limitations. Adaptability: The principle of adaptability includes designing risk management actions, strategies, and processes to remain dynamic and responsive to change. The homeland security landscape is constantly evolving as priorities, threats, and circumstances change, requiring DHS to adapt to meet the Nation’s expectations and requirements. DHS and its homeland security partners must be flexible in their approach to managing risk. This means that homeland security solutions must be dynamic. A changing world, filled with adaptive adversaries, increased interdependencies, and new technologies, necessitates security measures that are equally adaptable. Practicality: The principle of practicality pertains to the acknowledgement that homeland security risk management cannot eliminate all uncertainty nor is it reasonable to expect to identify all risks and their likelihood and consequences. The limitations of managing homeland security risk arises from the dynamic nature of homeland security threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, as well as the uncertainty that is generally associated with assessing risks. This is especially true when facing a threat from an adaptive adversary, such as a terrorist or criminal organization. Homeland security decisions often are made amidst uncertainty, but that uncertainty does not preclude the need for sound analysis or well thought-out and structured decision making. Risk management is an effective and important management practice that should lead to better-supported decisions and more effective programs and operations. Customization: The principle of customization emphasizes that risk management programs should be tailored to match the needs and culture of the organization, while being balanced with the specific decision environment they support. DHS organizations and personnel should tailor the methods for the dissemination of risk information and decision making and communications processes to fit the needs of their mission. The customization principle includes ensuring that the organization’s risk management approach is appropriately governed and uses the best available information. This assures that the risk management effort is systematic, timely, and structured based on the values of the organization. However, the principle of customization does not supersede the need to adhere to organizational standards, requirements, and operating procedures for risk management when there is a requirement for working together to analyze risks and promote joint decision making.
A Comprehensive Approach to Risk Management 13
IV. A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT DHS decision makers should employ a comprehensive approach to understanding and managing risks so that they can enhance the quality of decisions throughout their organization4 — thus supporting the DHS Policy for Integrated Risk Management.5
Doing so serves to improve decision making by allowing organizations to attempt to balance internal and external sources of risk to achieve their strategy. This section identifies the types of risks facing DHS organizations, and sets forth some necessary practices for managing these risks in an understandable way.
Internal Sources of Risk Risks impacting organizational effectiveness arise from both internal and external sources. Examples of internal sources are issues such as financial stewardship, personnel reliability, and systems reliability. Organizations across government and the private sector are all subject to these types of internal risks. These internal risks have the potential to derail effective operations and adversely affect mission accomplishment. A comprehensive approach to risk management serves to identify weaknesses and assists in creating internal systems and processes that minimize the potential for mission failure. External Sources of Risk Many organizations have additional risks to manage that are caused by external factors. Examples include global, political, and societal trends, as well as hazards from natural disasters, terrorism, malicious activity in cyberspace, pandemics, transnational crime, and manmade accidents. It is these hazards and threats that caused the Nation to make a significant commitment in homeland security, and it is important that the risks from external threats remain at the forefront of consideration for homeland security organizations.
“Threat is a natural or man-made occurrence, individual, entity, or action that has or indicates the potential to harm life, information, operations, the environment, and/or property.”
- DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition
Organizations should implement comprehensive risk management approaches to ensure all internal and external risks are considered in a holistic way. Organizations must manage risks as a system, while considering the underlying factors that directly impact organizational effectiveness and mission success. In order to consider the whole of homeland security risks, the categories in the following table help to define the landscape for an organization as it establishes a comprehensive approach to risk management. Identifying and understanding risks and their interactions ensures DHS leaders have a more complete perspective to manage risks and promote organizational effectiveness.
4 Many organizations describe their comprehensive approach to risk management using the term Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), defined as “a comprehensive approach to risk management that engages organizational systems and processes together to improve the quality of decision making for managing risks that may hinder an organization from achieving its objectives.” DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition. 5 The concept of Integrated Risk Management was defined in the DHS Secretary’s Memorandum, DHS Policy for Integrated Risk Management, dated May 27, 2010.
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Organizational Risk Categories
Strategic Risks Operational Risks Institutional Risks
Definition
Risk that affects an organization’s vital
interests or execution of a chosen strategy, whether
imposed by external threats or arising from
flawed or poorly implemented strategy.
Risk that has the potential to impede the successful execution of operations with existing resources,
capabilities, and strategies.
Risk associated with an organization’s ability to develop and maintain effective management
practices, control systems, and flexibility and
adaptability to meet organizational requirements.
Description
These risks threaten an organization’s ability to
achieve its strategy, as well as position itself to
recognize, anticipate, and respond to future trends,
conditions, and challenges. Strategic risks include those factors that may
impact the organization’s overall objectives and
long-term goals.
Operational risks include those that impact
personnel, time, materials, equipment, tactics,
techniques, information, technology, and
procedures that enable an organization to achieve its
mission objectives.
These risks are less obvious and typically come from within an
organization. Institutional risks include factors that
can threaten an organization’s ability to organize, recruit, train,
support, and integrate the organization to meet all
specified operational and administrative requirements.
Key Business Practices Effective management of risk is fostered and executed through a few key requirements. First and foremost, an organization must employ risk management with commitment and active participation by its leadership. If decision makers within an organization fully endorse and prioritize risk management practices, then employees at all levels will strive to understand and adopt risk management principles. Furthermore, risk management is only effective if it is used to inform decision making. This means that for risk management efforts to be successful, leaders must support risk management practices and incorporate risk information into their decision making. Second, managing risk requires a consistent approach across the organization. Although processes do not need to be identical, they should facilitate the ability to compare risks, as required, across the organization and provide reasonable assurance that risk management can be conducted coherently. Managing risk as a system allows for greater situational awareness of how varied risks and mitigation efforts may impact other activities. Third, an organization must be able to view risk on a comprehensive, enterprise-wide basis. Most risk information is viewed by the individuals responsible for managing particular risks, who are not necessarily able to see how risks can affect other parts of the organization or to see the cumulative risks the organization faces. Thus, an organization requires some sort of function that allows for information to cascade up, providing its leadership with an organization-wide view of its risks so as to promote better tradeoff decisions and enhance application of foresight.
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V. THE HOMELAND SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS To bolster common, interoperable, and systematic approaches to risk management, DHS organizations should employ a standardized risk management process.6
This approach promotes comparability and a shared understanding of information and analysis in the decision process, and facilitates better structured and informed decision making. The homeland security risk management process should be implemented while keeping in mind the previously articulated risk management principles. The process is comprised of the following: Defining and framing the context of decisions
and related goals and objectives;
Identifying the risks associated with the goals and objectives;
Analyzing and assessing the identified risks;
Developing alternative actions for managing the risks and creating opportunities, and analyzing the costs and benefits of those alternatives;
Making a decision among alternatives and implementing that decision; and
Monitoring the implemented decision and comparing observed and expected effects to help influence subsequent risk management alternatives and decisions.
DHS Risk Management Process
Define the Context
Identify Potential Risk
Assess and Analyze Risk
Develop Alternatives
Decide and Implement
Evaluate and Monitor
Communication
Risk Communications The foundation for each element of the risk management process is effective communications with stakeholders, partners, and customers. Consistent, two-way communication throughout the process helps ensure that the decision maker, analysts, and ultimately those charged to implement any decision share a common understanding of what the risk is and what factors may contribute to managing it. The concepts of uncertainty, perception, and tolerance for loss, which are intertwined with the concept of risk, should be accounted for as part of this communication. Effective communication is also an essential element in executing adopted courses of action and in explaining risks and risk management decisions to external parties such as the public. Such external communications may occur throughout the risk management process and should be considered integral to effective risk management.
6 The homeland security risk management process was defined in the DHS Secretary’s Memorandum, DHS Policy for Integrated Risk Management, dated May 27, 2010. This document incorporates and amplifies that risk management process.
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Risk Management Processes The homeland security risk management process supports every mission of DHS and partner organizations and is generally compatible with other documented risk management processes. These include other risk management frameworks and standards promulgated by transnational organizations and other governments.7
Although it is influenced by all of those approaches, this process is specifically designed for the totality of the homeland security mission and is intended to be utilized to provide DHS with a standard process for risk management.
Elements of the Homeland Security Risk Management Process Risk management supports a spectrum of homeland security decisions, including strategic planning, standards and doctrine development, policy formulation, budget and resource allocation, program implementation, program evaluation and assessment, research and development investments, short-term operational activities, and problem-solving. The sections that follow describe all the steps in the application of the risk management process to support such decision making. However, the realities of an organization’s environment dictate that, at times, implementing the six-step risk management process may not be a linear progression. Program managers, operational personnel, analysts, and decision makers may be required to improvise and truncate steps in the process based on time and resource constraints. For example, to support operations such as law enforcement efforts and incident management activities, this risk management process is often executed in a less structured or expedited manner. In a tactical setting, such as law enforcement activities, circumstances may require that the decision cycle be completed in a matter of seconds. This is the reality of the homeland security operating environment and the necessity that comes with reacting swiftly during times of stress. Note that even when the risk management process is expedited or cannot be sequentially executed, it is still appropriate to continue through the cycle after a decision has been made to allow adjustments in execution and to better evaluate performance. The homeland security risk management process consists of the following sequence of planning and analysis efforts: 1. Define the Context To execute risk management, it is critical to define the context for the decision that the risk management effort will support. For complex problem-solving, an organization will typically assemble a risk analysis and management team (which are frequently referred to as a planning team, a task force, or a working group, among other descriptions) to help decision makers go through the risk management process. When establishing the context, analysts must understand and document the associated requirements and constraints that will influence the decision making process, as well as key assumptions. While the analysis and management team members do not have to be risk experts, they must gain an understanding of the environment in which the risks are to be managed, taking into account political and policy concerns, mission needs, stakeholder interests, and risk tolerance. Defining the context will inform and shape successive stages of the risk management cycle. The considerations for defining the context can be as complex and varied as the decisions they are intended to support. The following is intended to offer some structure in scoping the variables to be
7 Examples of relevant international standards include the Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management (AS/NZ 4360) and the International Organization for Standardization Principles and Risk Management Standard (ISO 31000).
The Homeland Security Risk Management Process 17
considered when executing the risk management process, although often times it is not feasible to study all of these factors: Goals and Objectives:
Ensure that the goals and objectives of the risk management effort align with the desired requirements, outcome, or end-state of the decision making process. Clearly defined goals and objectives are essential to identifying, assessing, and managing those areas that may threaten success.
Mission Space and Values:
When defining the decision context, consider the mission space and values of the organization and its decision makers.
Policies and Standards: Ensure that risk management efforts complement and take into account any risk management policies,
standards, or requirements the organization has in place. Scope and Criticality of the Decision:
Understand the decisions that have to be made, and the range of options available to leaders. The breadth and depth of the decisions’ impact must also be considered. The risk analysis and management effort should be commensurate to that criticality.
Decision Makers and Stakeholders:
Organizational leaders and their staff must be engaged at the outset of a risk management process so that the approach and presentation of results can be tailored to their preferences. It is also helpful to understand the authorities and responsibilities of leaders, as well as their comfort level with risk management concepts and language. Similarly, stakeholders — those individuals or groups affected by the decisions — should be appropriately engaged and represented throughout the risk management process to ensure concerns are being addressed. This can be accomplished through direct interaction, such as conferences and public meetings.
Decision Timeframe:
The timeframe in which a decision must be made and executed will dictate a number of the attributes of the risk management effort, including how much time is available for conducting formal analysis and decision review. Related to this issue is the frequency of the decision, which can also affect the risk management effort’s analytic depth. The time horizon that the decision will impact must also be considered, such as whether the decision will have an influence only in the short-term or over a long period of time.
Risk Management Capabilities and Resources: At the beginning of the risk management process, it is useful to identify the staff, money, skill sets knowledge levels, and other resources available for risk analysis and management efforts. The implemented approach needs to be feasible and aligned with the organization’s capabilities, capacity, and processes. Additionally, the resources applied to support the effort should be commensurate with the complexity of the issues involved and the magnitude of the decision. For example, it would be irresponsible to spend significant resources to support a decision with a minimal projected impact.
Risk Tolerance: Determining and understanding the decision makers’ general risk tolerance level is helpful before embarking on the risk management process. Risk management efforts often involve tradeoffs between positive and negative outcomes. Having perspective on an organization or a decision
18 Risk Management Fundamentals
maker’s risk tolerance will help shape the assessments and the development of risk management alternatives that will be presented to leadership.
Availability and Quality of Information:
When evaluating decision requirements, consider the availability and quality of information that can support the risk management effort, as available information will impact the design of the risk analysis approach. In engaging with decision makers at the outset of the risk management cycle, it is important to convey anticipated data limitations, including expected levels of uncertainty, so decision makers can adjust their expectations accordingly.
Designing an Approach The above considerations shape and help define the design of the required processes to identify risks and conduct risk assessment and analysis and allow for the selection, implementation, and evaluation of risk management alternatives. By considering each of these elements systematically, decision makers and the analysts who support them are able to design an approach that is appropriate given the context. Additionally, as the risk management process is iterative, the context may be redefined based on external events, shifting priorities, and new information. Considering such change is critical for ensuring that both the principles of flexibility and practicality are adhered to as part of risk management. 2. Identify Potential Risk For homeland security, there is a need to consider a wide variety of risks to support decision making. As previously noted, these considerations include strategic, operational, and institutional risks. The risks that are included in any particular assessment (sometimes called the assessment’s scope) are largely determined by the decision the assessment is designed to inform. The decision context established in the previous step of the process should be used to determine what individual risks should be identified and assessed. Identifying a preliminary list of risks can generally be done from a basic knowledge of the subject matter of the decision. To do so, it is sometimes helpful to think about the risks in terms of “risk to” and “risk from.” This can be a very simple exercise of defining elements affected (goals, objectives, and systems) to determine the “risk to” and capturing the things (hazards, resources, and institutional failures) that impact them to determine the “risk from.” This approach will yield a fairly broad list of potentially adverse outcomes that will assist in the identification of mitigation efforts and resources. Unusual, Unlikely, and Emerging Risks Prior to conducting a risk assessment, it is valuable to make a concerted effort to identify risks beyond those usually considered. For example, risks that are newly developing, even if they are poorly understood, are useful to identify. Risks that are highly unlikely but have high consequences should also be identified and incorporated into the assessment, if possible. This can even include identifying the risk of the unknown as a possible risk. Brainstorming is a common technique to identify these unusual, emerging, and rare risks. So, too, is involving a wide range of perspectives and strategic thinkers to avoid the trap of conventional wisdom and groupthink. Even when a risk is difficult to assess, it may still be important to try to understand and should be noted. It should also be acknowledged that no identification of risks is likely to capture every potential unwanted outcome — there will always be things that happen that are unanticipated.
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Scenarios It is generally appropriate and helpful for homeland security risk assessments to use scenarios to divide the identified risks into separate pieces that can be assessed and analyzed individually.
A scenario is a “hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate.”
- DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition
When developing scenarios to identify potential risks for a risk assessment, the set of scenarios should attempt to cover the full scope of the assessment to ensure that the decision maker is provided with complete information when making a decision. Also, the scenarios should not overlap, as including multiple scenarios that contain the same event may lead to double counting the risk. Organizing the identified risks into a framework, such as with scenarios, is helpful preparation for creating a viable methodology in the next step in the risk management cycle. In addition, examining the risks in a structured way can also be used to identify gaps where potential risks have been left out. 3. Assess and Analyze Risk The purpose of this step is to assess the identified risks and analyze the outputs of the assessment. This step consists of several tasks: Determining a methodology;
Gathering data;
Executing the methodology;
Validating and verifying the data; and
Analyzing the outputs.
In practice, these tasks, like the steps of the larger risk management cycle, rarely occur linearly. Instead, risk practitioners often move back and forth between the tasks, such as refining a methodology after some data has been gathered. Methodology When choosing a risk assessment methodology, care should be given to remaining within the organization’s capabilities.8
8 The National Research Council notes that “Rarely is there a single ‘right’ risk analysis tool, method or model to provide ‘correct’ analysis to support decision making. In general, a risk analysis is intended to combine data and modeling techniques with subject matter expertise in a logical fashion to yield outputs that differentiate among decision options and help the decision maker improve his or her decision over what could be accomplished merely with experience and intuition.” Committee to Review the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis, Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis, Washington DC, National Academies Press, 2010, p.94.
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The most important factor to consider in selecting a methodology is the decision the assessment must inform. The methodology should only be as complex as necessary to properly inform the decision. In homeland security risk analysis, there are a large number of pre-existing methodologies that may be appropriately applied to similar decisions. However, some homeland security risk management decisions will require novel methodologies, as this is a new and quickly developing field. Hence, when trying to determine the methodology, assessments that have already been completed may be a good starting point but should not be considered as the only options. Though properly informing the decision is the prime factor when selecting a methodology, other concerns will also influence the choice. Data availability, as well as time, financial, and personnel constraints also play a role. Likelihood and Consequences Homeland security risks can be assessed in terms of their likelihood and consequences.
“Methodology” is used in this document to mean any logical process by which the inputs into an assessment are processed to produce the outputs that inform the decision.
Likelihood is the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured or estimated in terms of general descriptors, frequencies, or probabilities. Consequence, or impact, is the effect of an incident, event, or occurrence, whether direct or indirect. In homeland security risk analysis, consequences include (but are not limited to) loss of life, injuries, economic impacts, psychological consequences, environmental degradation, and inability to execute essential missions.
- DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition
There is no single methodology that is appropriate for measuring the likelihood and consequences of every homeland security risk, and each methodology requires independent judgment regarding its design. In some cases, it may not even be necessary to explicitly determine likelihood and consequence. Many homeland security risk assessments consider homeland security risks as a function9 of Threats, Vulnerabilities, and Consequences (TVC). Explicitly considering each of the TVC factors is appropriate for many homeland security risks, such as those related to infrastructure protection.10
However, considering TVC explicitly is sometimes not the best approach for other homeland security risk assessments — especially those that include institutional risks that can impact an organization’s ability to meet operational and administrative requirements. In fact, one of the most common mistakes in homeland security risk analysis is misapplying the TVC framework. It is important that the TVC framework be applied only when appropriate to the subject matter of the analysis and the character of the assessed risks. In addition, analysts should be very careful when calculating risk by multiplying threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, especially for terrorism, because interdependencies between the three
9 “Function” means that a value is assigned to each input of threat, vulnerability, and consequence, and the inputs are considered in combination. 10 The National Infrastructure Protection Plan, published in 2009, calls for infrastructure risks from any scenario to be considered “as a function of consequence, vulnerability, and threat.” p. 32.
The Homeland Security Risk Management Process 21
variables, and/or poorly executed mathematical operations, can lead to inaccurate results.11
Types of Methodologies As a general rule, simple, but defensible, methodologies are preferred over more complicated methods. Simple methodologies are less prone to errors and are easier for stakeholders to understand. They are also more likely to fulfill the principles of transparency and practicality. Homeland security risk methodologies are often sorted into qualitative12 and quantitative13 categories, but when well-designed, both types of assessments have the potential to deliver useful analytic results.14
Similarly, both qualitative and quantitative methodologies can be needlessly complex or poorly designed. As stated previously, the methodology that best meets the decision maker’s needs is generally the best choice, whether quantitative or qualitative.
Gathering Data Once a methodology for informing the decision has been determined, data must be gathered to populate the assessment. There are a number of potential sources for risk information. Some of the most commonly used sources for homeland security risk assessments include historical records, models, simulations, and elicitations of subject matter experts.
When collecting data, attention should be paid to all aspects of the decision that are important, regardless of whether these aspects can be readily quantified. For example, when considering the consequences of strategic homeland security risks, the assessed consequences may include difficult-to-quantify psychological impacts in addition to consequences such as lives lost and economic damage. Structured techniques, such as value focused thinking, can help the analyst determine which aspects of consequences should be included in the methodology. Many pieces of data are not known precisely. For example, the cost estimate for damage resulting from a major earthquake in California can be estimated by a subject matter expert to fall within a range, with some values being more likely than others. The assumptions and uncertainty in the inputs should be considered in each step of the assessment’s methodology to determine how they affect the outputs. Uncertainty in the outputs should then be communicated to the decision maker, as well as the assumptions that underpin the analysis. It is also useful to consider the impact of the uncertainty and how sensitive the assessment of risk is to particular pieces of uncertain data.
11 As the National Academies of Science states: “The definition of Risk = T x V x C makes sense…but not for natural disasters.” p. 99. 12 Qualitative Risk Assessment methodology is defined as “a set of methods, principles, or rules for assessing risk based on non-numerical categories or levels.” DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition. 13 Quantitative Risk Assessment methodology is defined as “a set of methods, principles, or rules for assessing risk based on the use of numbers where the meanings and proportionality of values are maintained inside and outside the context of the assessment.” DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition. 14 The National Research Council notes that “narrative descriptions of non-quantitative information about risk are often as important to decision makers as is the more fully quantitative information.” Committee to Review the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis, Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis, Washington DC, National Academies Press, 2010, p.10.
Elicitations involve using structured questions to gather information from individuals with in-depth knowledge of specific areas or fields. They are typically used when the historical record is either nonexistent or is not appropriate for collecting data on a specific scenario.
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Validation and Presentation Throughout the process of executing the assessment, the gathered data and evidence should be carefully studied and compared to previous work — as should the results — as doing so is part of validation and verification. Decision makers will rarely be well-served by only a simple presentation of the outputs of a risk assessment, so the data and evidence should be analyzed to identify relevant and interesting features to the decision maker. In a broad assessment, the decision maker will often have specific areas they are particularly interested in, and will ask the analysts to focus in on those areas. Follow-up analyses will then need to be completed. In this way, analysts will regularly iterate a cycle of analyzing risks and presenting the analysis to decision makers. Integrating Alternatives Often, the evaluation of alternative risk management actions is part of a risk assessment methodology. Though the development of alternatives is the next step in the risk management cycle, many homeland security leaders prefer the alternatives to be integrated into the risk assessment, necessitating additional data collection and analysis. The earlier in the process the potential alternatives are known, the more efficiently their data collection can be integrated into the data collection for the rest of the assessment. 4. Develop Alternatives In order to improve the country’s ability to prevent, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate a variety of manmade and natural hazards, homeland security leaders must focus their attention on identifying and executing actions to manage homeland security risks. Ultimately, the objective of homeland security risk analysis is to provide decision makers with a structured way to identify and choose risk management actions. Identifying and Assessing Options Within the risk management process, the step of developing alternatives involves systematically identifying and assessing available risk management options. Portions of this step may be performed by different practitioners, but the alternatives development phase brings together proposed risk management actions with the results of a risk assessment, to include course-of-action comparisons. This provides leaders with a clear picture of the risk management benefits of each proposed action or group of actions. The picture of potential benefits, when combined with an analysis of an action’s costs — both monetary and non-monetary — can serve as a valuable resource for aiding decision makers in making effective and efficient homeland security choices. Ultimately, the development of alternative risk management actions should: Be understandable to participants of the process, including the decision makers and stakeholders;
Match and comply with the organization’s relevant doctrine, standards, and plans;
Provide documentation with assumptions explicitly detailed;
Allow for future refinements; and
Include planning for assessment of progress toward achieving desired outcomes.
The Homeland Security Risk Management Process 23
Risk Management Strategies Risk management actions include strategies, treatments, or countermeasures for managing risks. Risks can be managed by one of four distinct methods: risk acceptance, risk avoidance, risk control, and risk transfer.15
Risk Management Strategies
Definition
Risk Acceptance An explicit or implicit decision not to take an action that would affect a particular risk.16
Risk Avoidance
A strategy or measure which effectively removes the exposure of an organization to a risk.
Risk Control (or reduction)
Deliberate actions taken to reduce a risk’s potential for harm or maintain the risk at an acceptable level.
Risk Transfer (or deflection)
Shifting some or all of the risk to another entity, asset, system, network, or geographic area.
Methods for Developing and Evaluating Alternatives Developing and evaluating alternative courses of action involves both technical study and applied ingenuity. While approaches for developing and evaluating alternatives are as diverse as the problem sets, considerations may include: Reviewing lessons learned from relevant past incidents;
Consulting subject matter experts, best practices and government guidelines;
Brainstorming;
Organizing risk management actions;
Evaluating options for risk reduction and residual risk;
15 For more information about these four risk management treatment options see the DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition. 16 For example, a decision may be made to not invest in a countermeasure because the cost outweighs the risk reduction return on investment. Responsible risk management dictates that for some risks the most appropriate action will be to do nothing and to accept the risk. However, when the “no action” option is chosen, it should not be the result of inattention but of thoughtful analysis and careful consideration of the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action.
24 Risk Management Fundamentals
Developing cost estimates for risk management actions; Comparing the benefit of each risk management action with its associated cost; and
Eliminating potential options.
Evaluating risk management options should involve information generated in the context-setting and risk assessment steps of the risk management cycle. This information should be generated through analysis of the costs and other negative impacts, as well as the projected benefits of identified courses of action. It is important to note that risk management actions can be evaluated based on their potential to manage risk in the aggregate across a range of scenarios, as well as their ability to manage risks associated with a single scenario; maintaining both perspectives is crucial in identifying the most effective actions. Needs and Constraints Alternatives development requires consideration of the needs and constraints of an organization during the decision making process. For example, the team developing alternatives must consider the time needed to implement each risk management option; the objectives of the option, methods to achieve the objectives, and the resources required to implement the option; performance objectives, measures, and targets; and the decision making environment that would influence strategy implementation and sustainability. In a sense, the developing alternatives step is about understanding and clearly communicating the costs and benefits, expected outcomes, and likelihood of success of each strategy option. Iterative Process Alternatives development should be treated as a process that is iterative and evolutionary. Since risks often shift, it is important to revisit the alternatives development process, incorporate new information, and re-evaluate the options based on changed circumstances. Changes in threats or the emergence of a new risk can make a previously discarded risk management option possible, or even preferable to other options. 5. Decide Upon and Implement Risk Management Strategies Risk management entails making decisions about best options among a number of alternatives in an uncertain environment. The key moment in the execution of any risk management process is when a decision maker17
chooses among alternatives for managing risks, and makes the decision to implement the selected course of action. This can include making an affirmative decision to implement a new alternative, as well as the decision to maintain the status quo.
Presenting Information For the “Decide and Implement” phase, decision makers need to consider the feasibility of implementing options, and how various alternatives affect and reduce risk. This includes the consideration of adequate resources, capabilities, time to implement, policy imperatives, legal issues, the potential impact on stakeholders, and the potential for creating new risks for the organization. When providing decision makers with alternatives, analysts should present options, and their strengths and weaknesses, clearly and understandably in order to ensure that decisions are informed by a common
17 Within the homeland security enterprise, decision makers can be anyone from a national official to the head of a local law enforcement agency to a first responder.
The Homeland Security Risk Management Process 25
understanding of the organization’s risks. Information should be tailored to the needs of leadership, and the risk analysis and management team should consider who the audience is when preparing to communicate assessments and strategies. Document and Implement Once a decision has been made, the decision maker must ensure that the decision is documented and communicated, and that an appropriate management structure is in place to implement the decision. Leadership should require comprehensive project management approaches that will document the planning, organizing, and managing of resources necessary for the successful implementation of the risk management strategy. This should include identifying metrics for the implementation process, which will allow the organization to track progress and improve future efforts. Additionally, leadership should develop an approach for the management of residual risk to the organization left after the decision. 6. Evaluation and Monitoring This phase includes the evaluation and monitoring of performance to determine whether the implemented risk management options achieved the stated goals and objectives. In addition to assessing performance, organizations should guard against unintended adverse impacts, such as creating additional risk or failing to recognize changes in risk characteristics. The evaluation phase is designed to bring a systematic, disciplined approach to assessing and improving the effectiveness of risk management program implementation. It is not just the implementation that needs to be evaluated and improved; it is the actual risk reduction measures themselves. Evaluation should be conducted in a way that is commensurate with both the level of risk and the scope of the mission. Performance Measurement Through effective evaluation and monitoring an organization may find it necessary to adjust its risk management options. It is crucial that a process of performance measurement be established to evaluate whether the actions taken ultimately achieved the intended performance objective. This is important not only in evaluating the success of the implemented option, but also in holding the organization accountable for progress. A core element of evaluating and monitoring risk management options involves using effectiveness criteria to track and report on performance results with concrete, realistic metrics. In cases where the chosen course of action is to do nothing, the continued appropriateness of accepting the risk may be the
Logic Models One way to develop measures that evaluate the implementation of a risk management decision
is to build a performance logic model that defines causal relationships between activities
and risk management goals. These logic models typically include:
• Risk Management Goals: A description of the overall end-state expected to be achieved in terms of managing identified risks.
• Inputs: A description of the resources that are used to carry out risk management efforts.
• Efforts: A description of the types of efforts or activities that, employing the inputs, work toward achieving the risk management goals.
• Output: A description of what is immediately produced by the activities, including metrics that can be used to measure that production.
• Outcome Performance Measures: A description of the combined effect that delivering outputs are expected to have, including measures that evaluate the impact of the combined efforts in achieving the risk management goals.
26 Risk Management Fundamentals
best possible metric. In other cases, the best metric is often the reduction of the likelihood or consequences associated with a risk. It is also important to monitor the larger context within which an identified risk and risk management effort exists. Good situational awareness may reveal changes in the context that require corresponding changes in the risk management effort. Both types of monitoring — effectiveness and situational awareness — are essential if risk management efforts are to be effective over time. Models of Evaluation Models of evaluation include red teaming (scenario role-playing), exercises, external review, and surveys. Different models of evaluation will require differing levels of involvement from organization leadership and staff. For example, red teaming and exercises should be guided by leadership and analysts. External review, however, is an independent activity that should not be influenced by the risk management activity under evaluation. Leadership must provide the appropriate and requested information to the external review team, and the process should be conducted in an independent and unbiased manner. The benefit of testing effectiveness using these methods is that it provides different perspectives on the capabilities of the risk management program. It also allows one to validate what is going well, and areas that may need improvement. Evaluating and monitoring implemented risk management strategies should be part of considering overall performance management of homeland security activities. 7. Risk Communications
Risk communication “is the exchange of information with the goal of improving risk understanding, affecting risk perception, and/or equipping people or groups to take appropriate actions in response to an identified risk.”
Communications underpin the entire risk management process. As explained earlier, homeland security risk is a fluid concept affected by varying perceptions and loss tolerances, as well as uncertainty. As a result, it is imperative that risks and risk management decisions are communicated between stakeholders, partners, and customers. Communication requirements will differ, however, according to the audience and timeframe. Typically, risk communication is divided between internal and external audiences and between incident and standard timeframes. Internal Risk Communications Some risk communications are internal to an organization, such as that between analysts and decision makers. Maintaining two-way communication throughout the risk management process ensures that the key principles of risk management are met. For example, decision makers provide context (including values and perceptions) to bound analysts’ exploration of risks and meet the organization’s goals and objectives. Allowing decision makers input from the beginning of the process improves transparency, creates leadership buy-in, and sets the framework for an assessment tailored appropriately to the organization’s needs and objectives. In turn, analysts provide information on risks and on possible actions to address the risks. Being transparent about methodology, limitations, and uncertainty provides decision makers with the most accurate, defensible, and practical information on which to base risk management decisions. Every internal stakeholder in the risk management process — decision makers,
- DHS Risk Lexicon, 2010 Edition
The Homeland Security Risk Management Process 27
analysts, operational personnel, and program managers — should be included in the activities of that process through consistent, two-way communication. External Risk Communications The public and cross-agency nature of homeland security risk often necessitates that DHS communicate with external stakeholders, partners, and the public. Risk management decisions should be communicated to the public when appropriate in order to minimize fear while building trust. In addition, other forms of government as well as the public and the private sector often have an important role to play in reducing risk and are therefore an integral part of the risk management process. When communicating to external parties, it is essential that varying risk perceptions and knowledge of risks be taken into account. Those outside the Department sometimes have a different perspective regarding risks than those within the Department, just as decision makers, analysts, operational personnel, and program managers have different perspectives from each other. Such differences mean that communications should be carefully tailored to the audience, but also represent an opportunity to strengthen the risk management process. External parties may help mold potential alternatives, provide context to the decision, and monitor and evaluate decisions that have been made. Thus external communications should also be two-way and should include an organization’s public affairs professionals as appropriate. Incident vs. Standard Timeframe Communications How risk communications is defined and employed can differ based on a number of factors, including the relevance of time pressure, the purpose of the message, and the entity responsible for communicating the information. DHS communicates risks on a daily basis. Standard types of risk communications involve little time pressure and are intended to empower decision making among partners, stakeholders and the public. Incident, or crisis, communications take place under different conditions than standard communications. In a crisis, empowering decision making remains a priority; however, time constraints are a critical consideration and the need to explain and persuade becomes increasingly important as a result of psychological changes in how people take in and act on information and protective guidance. Internal communications should remain bi-directional, but top-down decisiveness takes on greater importance. Externally, it is important that communications to stakeholders, partners, and the public provide clear information and, if appropriate, guidance on actions to take in a manner that is designed to minimize the anxiety that may arise in such a situation. If the lines of communication have already been established under standard conditions, incident communications will occur more naturally and smoothly, ensuring that DHS and its partners can more effectively prevent, protect, respond, and recover. In addition, both the National Response Framework (January 2008) and the National Incident Management System (December 2008) call for a Communications Plan to be developed as one of the major components of establishing an Incident Command System and maintaining a common operating picture during an incident.18
After an incident, standard communications should resume so that all stakeholders build a common understanding of what has happened, why certain decisions were made, and how to move forward. Essentially, an incident does not represent a break in the risk management process, but rather a temporary acceleration after which the process continues as normal.
18 For further information on incident communications requirements, see the National Incident Management System published in December 2008, which outlines incident communications on a more tactical level than explored in this document.
28 Risk Management Fundamentals
Risk Communications Considerations Risk communications will be most effective if guided by the following interrelated aims: Plan for communications. Communication efforts for decision makers and stakeholders need to
be proactive as part of the risk management process; they should not be “tacked on” at the end as an afterthought. Furthermore, risk information needs to be readily available for relevant parties at all stages of the risk management cycle.
Maintain trust. Past communication efforts give context to the organization’s next message, shaping how it will be received. Consistency is important, but only as long as it serves to build trust. When consistency is untenable in light of emerging information, then officials need to acknowledge it, including any errors that may be involved, and explain it. Once trust is lost, it is very difficult to recover.
Use language appropriate to the audience. When communicating risk, it is important to consider the intended audience and tailor the language and channels used to effectively convey the information to promote and elicit the desired actions and outcomes.
Be both clear and transparent. Clarity and transparency are important to effective communications. Clarity means communicating in a direct, simple and understandable way. Transparency in communications means disclosing assumptions, methodology, and uncertainty considered.
Respect the audience’s concerns. Risk communications are most effective when the recipient’s concerns and/or issues are acknowledged. Maintaining open channels for collaboration or feedback fosters mutual understanding. Communicators should be both receptive and responsive to queries from decision makers and stakeholders.
Maintain integrity of information. Effective risk communications should acknowledge uncertainty, note any limitations of information, make assumptions explicit, and distinguish assertions from judgments supported by analysis and evidence.
Communication connects each step of the risk management process. It is also crucial for linking the risk management principles and process. One cannot overstate the importance of risk communications in risk management.
Conclusion 29
VI. CONCLUSION This document serves as doctrine to define the principles, process and operational practices of effective homeland security risk management and is intended for DHS organizations and personnel to adopt and employ. Applying consistent doctrine that promotes the understanding of sound risk management practices is a critical step toward creating a cohesive approach to homeland security. In order to promote and enhance the safety, security, and resilience of the Nation, DHS leaders and their homeland security partners need to identify, understand, and develop strategies to prevent, mitigate, and control risks. The establishment and sustainment of a risk management culture across DHS and its partners will require continued commitment and attention from leadership and personnel. The development of risk management capabilities requires time, resources, training, and ongoing support by all levels of management. DHS will continue to lead the development and establishment of those capabilities to achieve an integrated approach to homeland security risk management. In doing so, DHS will build on the foundation established by Risk Management Fundamentals.
- I. Key Objectives
- Purpose
- Audience
- II. Introduction
- Homeland Security Risks
- Sound Decision Making
- The Value of Risk Management
- Risk Management Applications
- III. Homeland Security Risk Management Tenets and Principles
- IV. A Comprehensive Approach to Risk Management
- Internal Sources of Risk
- External Sources of Risk
- Key Business Practices
- V. The Homeland Security Risk Management Process
- Risk Communications
- Risk Management Processes
- Elements of the Homeland Security Risk Management Process
- 1. Define the Context
- 2. Identify Potential Risk
- 3. Assess and Analyze Risk
- 4. Develop Alternatives
- 5. Decide Upon and Implement Risk Management Strategies
- 6. Evaluation and Monitoring
- 7. Risk Communications
- VI. Conclusion