Question

Assignment #3: Climate Change Portfolio

Atmospheric carbon stabilization

Energy Efficiency & Conservation

Stabilization Triangle

Renewables & Biostorage

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Nuclear Power 2010 2060

Triangle Stabilization

Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies

E, T, H / $

↑ transport efficiency ↑ transport conservation Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled

↑ building efficiency Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings

Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge

Efficiency

There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055

Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA

Sector s affected: • E = Electricity • T =Transport • H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

↑ electricity efficiency Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency

Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today

Implement CCS at

• 800 GW coal electric plants or

• 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or

• 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity

of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

Carbon Capture & Storage

There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.E, T, H / $$

Replace 1400 coal-fired facilities with an equal number of natural gas electric plants

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today

Fuel Switching

Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

E, H / $

Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055

Nuclear Electricity

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.E/ $$

Wind Electricity & Wind Hydrogen

Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity,

OR

Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 10E, T, H / $-$$

Solar Electricity

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2060

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 100 times

E / $$$

Biofuels

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops

Scale up current global ethanol production by ~12 times

T, H / $$

Natural Sinks (Forests & Soils)

Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

Eliminate tropical deforestation

OR

Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S.

OR

Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)

B / $

Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland

Take Home Messages • In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to

rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks

• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions

• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling

• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs