OPERATION MANAGEMENT ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting need to be done with Excel urgent
Rawan Sam
Assignment1Forecasting1.docxOPERATION MANAGEMENT
ASSIGNMENT – 1 Forecasting
Note: Use MS Excel and submit one file with 7 tabs, one for each of the following questions.
The monthly sales of the year 2019 for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:
|
Month |
2019 Sales |
|
January |
20 |
|
February |
21 |
|
March |
15 |
|
April |
14 |
|
May |
13 |
|
June |
16 |
|
July |
17 |
|
August |
18 |
|
September |
20 |
|
October |
20 |
|
November |
21 |
|
December |
23 |
1. Plot the monthly sales.
2. Forecast January 2020 sales using the Naive method
3. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 3-month moving average.
4. Forecast January 2020 sales using a 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.
5. Forecast January 2020 sales using exponential smoothening where α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.
Bonus Questions
6. A trend projection using a regression equation Y = a + bX where is X is the month number. (example: for June, X = 6)
7. With the data given, which method would minimize the error in forecast?
