From: gspira@nyx.cs.du.edu (Greg Spira)
Subject: Re: OBP hurt by sac flies (was Re: HBP? BB? BIG-CAT?)
Organization: University of Denver, Dept. of Math & Comp. Sci.
Lines: 68

scottm@helena.stat.uga.edu (scott mclure) writes:

>In article <1993Apr23.061709.26822@mnemosyne.cs.du.edu> gspira@nyx.cs.du.edu (Greg Spira) writes:
>>paladin@leland.Stanford.EDU (Jason Gische) writes:
>>
>>>In article <1993Apr21.213902.4888@cs.cornell.edu> tedward@cs.cornell.edu (Edward [Ted] Fischer) writes:
>>>>I think Sac flies are the only way OBP can be below BA.
>>>>
>>
>>>Does this seem dumb to anyone else?
>>>(The fact not the comment.)
>>
>>>Why should a batter's OBP be hurt by a sac fly?  Especially if sac
>>>bunts don't have the same effect, since they do the same thing,
>>>but sac flies usually score a run while bunts just advance a base.
>>
>>>But both of these situations involve the batter giving up an AB for
>>>the benefit of the team (sacrifice)?  So why should it hurt their
>>>stats?
>>
>>The sac bunt is a purposeful act, ordered by the manager.  
>>The batter does not go up "trying" to get a sac fly, and the
>>evidence available indicates that there is no such ability -
>>players can't will themselves to hit sac flies, they fly out
>>to the same place just as often when there's nobody on third.
>>
>>Greg 
>>
>>

>Sorry, I gotta disagree here.  Last time I played ball, I went up on
>several occasions intending to hit a fly ball deep enough to score the
>runner from third or advance a runner to third.  It's relatively easy
>actually... you swing under the path of the ball you normally would to
>hit a good line drive.  With fastballs it's very easy, much more
>difficult with good breaking balls.  A good hitter with excellent bat
>control can voluntarily hit fly balls to the outfield at least, oh, 60%
>of the time?

You haven't been facing major league pitching.      

  Maybe more... you have to be good at the plate, and most
>of those guys are just as likely to opt for getting the base hit and
>helping their average as getting the sacrifice.  The best example I know
>of is Jerry Willard in the 91 Series against Minnesota.  All he had to
>do was put one in the OF and the game was over.  He swung waaaaaay past
>parallel and accomplished (barely) getting the run in safely.

STATS did a little study in the 1993 Scoreboard book entitled "Can
you hit sacrifice flies on purpose?"  A summary of the findings:

Over the 5 year period, sac-fly type fly balls were produced 17.6
percent of the time in situations where a sac fly was useful, and 
17.7 percent of the time when a sac fly wasn't useful.

They looked at the leaders in sac flies, and found that the leaders
in sac flies - in other words, the guys you would expect to be good
at it it - hit sac fly type fly balls only 3% more often when they
needed to - a difference way too small to be the result of a skill.
Essentially, the players who hit a lot of sac flies seem to do
so because they hit hit sac fly type flies often, with and without
a runner on third.

STATS concludes "So it appears conclusive that hitters cannot hit
sacrifice flies on purpose - even if they practice in the bATTING
cage."

gREG 
