Global Economy

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EC 516 Assignment 1

Using a survey of consumer confidence to help forecast demand

In this assignment, you are to discuss the prospects for aggregate demand in two countries: one of China, Germany and the United States (the reference countries) (one of these three countries is assigned to each student) and in a special country that has been assigned uniquely to you. The code numbers for your countries are to be found in Grades. By "prospects for aggregate demand" I mean looking ahead, in real time, a half-year or so (i.e., through the remainder of 2019). You are to use the index of consumer confidence I have compiled from the data of global surveys and at least one other measure of the economy, for example, real GDP per capita - PPP basis. The code number for your index is also to be found in Grades. I also want you to comment on the extent to which your countries (both your reference country and your special country) suffered from the Financial Crisis of 2008 and, if they did, comment on their subsequent recovery. Country Codes: 01 - Algeria 02 - Argentina 03 - Australia 04 - Austria 05 - Bahrain 06 - Belgium 07 - Brazil 08 - Bulgaria 09 - Canada 10 - Chile 11 - China 12 - Colombia 13 - Costa Rica 14 - Croatia 15 - Czech Rep. 16 - Denmark 17 - Egypt 18 - Estonia 19 - Finland 20 - France 21 - Germany 22 - Greece 23 - Guatemala

24 - Hong Kong 25 - Hungary 26 - India 27 - Indonesia 28 - Ireland 29 - Israel 30 - Italy 31 - Japan 32 - Jordan 33 - Kuwait 34 - Latvia 35 - Lithuania 36 - Malaysia 37 - Mexico 38 - Morocco 39 - Netherlands 40 - New Zealand 41 - Nigeria 42 - Norway 43 - Oman 44 - Pakistan 45 - Panama 46 - Peru

47 - Philippines 48 - Poland 49 - Portugal 50 - Qatar 51 - Romania 52 - Russia 53 - Saudi Arabia 54 - Singapore 55 - Slovenia 56 - South Africa 57 - South Korea 58 - Spain 59 - Sweden 60 - Switzerland 61 - Taiwan 62 - Thailand 63 - Turkey 64 - UAE 65 - UK 66 - Ukraine 67 - US 68 - Venezuela 69 - Vietnam

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Survey Codes: 01 - Bayt (consumers) 02 - CFO (financial mgrs) 03 - Grant Thornton (manufacturers) 04 - Ipsos (consumers)

05 - Markit (manufacturers) 06 - Mastercard (consumers) 07 - Manpower (personnel mgrs) 08 - Nielson (consumers)

The index of consumer confidence you are to use is to be found in my file EC516Assign1Data.xlsx. My indexes are constructed so that a score of 50 is neutral, a score of zero is very pessimistic and a score of 100 is very optimistic. My indexes are comparable across time, countries and surveys. In the spreadsheet, values are formatted in regular font in the months during which survey is administered and in italics font when they are based on interpolations. For some countries, there are gaps in the global survey data that I have filled-in using local surveys. These interpolations are shaded in blue.