6 academic references summary

Asia Pacific Tourism Trends: Is the Future Ours to See? Denis Tolkach, Kaye K.S. Chon and Honggen Xiao

School of Hotel and Tourism Management, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong

ABSTRACT This paper explores current and emerging tourism trends in the Asia Pacific region via content analysis of industry publications and subsequent review of related academic literature. Experience economy and activity-oriented travel lead the development of the sector in the region and impact other trends. Economic growth, favourable political environment and improved infrastructure have sustained continual growth in visitor numbers from long-haul and intra-regional markets. However, the profile of travellers and their interests are increasingly diverse. Additionally, technology has been playing a significant role in hospitality and tourism industries, while human resources remain one of the biggest challenges in the region. Despite the huge increase in academic literature on sustainability, the industry has not appeared to be engaged with the subject. A number of knowledge gaps are identified for future research to better understand tourism development in the Asia Pacific region.

Key words tourism; trend; Asia and the Pacific; development; future

Introduction

This paper aims to explore emerging trends for tourism in Asia and the Pacific; the region that has seen high growth in travel over the last 30 years and is posed to be the centre of tourism in the future (Yeoman & Beeton,2014).Thepaperisbuiltonan ongoingresearch project of the United Nations World Tourism Organis- ation (UNWTO) to identify tourism trends through a content analysis of industry media. Both academic and non-academic publications have been reviewed and integrated into the present discussion on emerging issues for tourism development in this region. Knowl- edge gaps are identified as an agenda for future research to better understand tourism in Asia and the Pacific. The underpinning rationale for this paper is to demonstrate to the academic and practitioner commu- nity where interests of industry and the academia in Asia Pacific tourism have been different. Thus, this paper aims to serve as a guide for academic researchers to identify future research opportunities that will be of benefit for academia, industry and the wider society. This focus has influenced the structure and content of the paper.

Structurally, the article begins with an overview of the various methods used to identify and analyse

trends in tourism. Previous trends studies in tourism starting from the 1980s, with both global and regional focus, are acknowledged to provide a historical context and perspectives on factors affecting develop- ment in the last 30 years. Subsequently methods used in this study are discussed. Results are presented in a series of trends organised by frequency of their appearance in the selected media and their perceived salience or influence on the industry. The paper con- cludes with discussions and suggestions for future research on emerging issues in the Asia Pacific region.

Trend Analyses: A Review

There are three key terms used to describe changes: “fad”, “trend” and “megatrend”. “Fads” are short-lived and typically do not have broad social implications or significance. Fads are phenomena that are fashion- able. “Trends” have a greater impact on society that is typically long-lasting. However, the word “trend” has become a very popular term and may be applied to changes in a variety of contexts and to phenomena of varied significance (Nordin, 2005). The term “mega- trend” has been coined by Naisbitt (1982) to describe overarching transformations in society which will have

© 2015 Asia Pacific Tourism Association

CONTACT Denis Tolkach [email protected]

ASIA PACIFIC JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH, 2016 VOL. 21, NO. 10, 1071–1084 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2015.1118395

great and long-lasting impacts. Informed by media analysis, Naisbitt (1982) distinguished “fads” as top- down flows from “trends” as bottom-up waves. Content analysis of media has been established as a tool to examine trends and patterns in the late nine- teenth century (Krippendorff, 2012). The rationale is that within the limited amount of space only stories that are most relevant to the public will be published, and therefore themes recurring in the media constitute the trends (Naisbitt, 1982).

Methods for trends analyses encompass tech- niques such as quantitative analysis of statistical data and survey results, qualitative analysis of interviews and/or the Delphi approach. The quantitative methods are more prominent in demand modelling and forecasting (Peng, Song & Crouch, 2014). However, the reliance on past data to forecast future may be unreliable due to changing political, social and economic environments as well as unforeseeable crises (Prideaux, Laws, & Faulkner, 2003). On the quali- tative side, Yeoman (2009, 2012) uses scenario plan- ning to discuss what future tourism by 2030 and 2050 will look like. This approach usually aims to understand key factors and/or uncertainties impacting on a phenomenon. The key factors driving global changes in tourism are often derived from economic, political, environmental, technological, demographic and social/societal scenarios (Dwyer, Edwards, Mistilis, Roman, & Scott, 2009; Varum, Melo, Alvarenga, & de Carvalho, 2011; Yeoman, 2009, 2012).

One early publication which adopts Naisbitt’s (1982) method was Chon, Olsen, and Howell’s (1987) “Analysis of the Trends in the Hospitality Industry through Content Analysis of Industry Publications”. It reviewed macro- and micro-business environment of the US hospitality industry. Another early example of trends analysis was a special issue of Tourism Management (1987, pp. 78–186). The issue covered wide geography with topics such as marketing, transportation, urban development, social trends, national tourism organis- ations, cruise tourism, inclusive/package tourism and tourism economics. Shackleford (1987) discussed the trends of the time through the lens of World Tourism Organization, including information service, tourism forecasting, education about travel, tourism and devel- opment, exchange rates, low-probability/high-impact events, socio-demographic changes, nuclear family, accommodation, long-haul becoming shorter, new andexotictouristproductsandnewdestinations/emer- ging countries.

Picolla (1987) stated that in 1986 the world has entered the “Age of the Pacific” and predicted that the trend of a changing focus in tourism towards the Asia Pacific region would continue into the twenty- first century. In addition, Hobson (1994) reviewed the trends in Asia Pacific tourism in a publication focused mostly on statistical data. He identified three groups of issues for successful development of tourism in Asia and the Pacific: infrastructure, environ- ment and human resources. The use of content analy- sis for trend identification has also emerged in tourism studies. Jurowski and Olsen (1995) used content analy- sis to discuss such trends as changing consumer pre- ferences, niche markets, greater local involvement in tourism development, role of technology and geo- graphical expansion of tourism. Based on visitor arri- vals and tourist receipts, Singh (1997) has predicted a bright future for tourism in the Asia Pacific region. However, Leiper and Hing (1998) were more cautious due to such factors as natural disasters in Malaysia, the handover of Hong Kong, political instability in Indone- sia and Cambodia and the Asian Economic Crisis. Recognising Asia Pacific’s rich cultural heritage as well as growth of cultural tourism, Timothy and Pri- deaux (2004) analysed issues of heritage and culture, identifying authenticity, interpretation, contestation of space and of meaning of heritage sites, marketing, control and preservation as key issues. A more recent study by Pan, Chon, and Song (2008) discussed the key trends in Asia Pacific tourism based on the content analysis, including, among others, the following: Travel becomes more activity–interest based rather than destination based; Consolidated social–environ- mental awareness and consciousness; Chasing Chinese and Indian tourists; LCCs – One of the king- makers of booming tourism; Safety and health con- cerns require timely communication to mitigate negative impacts on a destination and Seniors and women will travel more.

Recently trend analysis has been performed in a number of state-of-the-art reviews of tourism research (Ballantyne, Packer, & Axelsen, 2009; Buckley, Gretzel, Scott, Weaver, & Becken, 2015; Tribe, 2008; Xiao & Smith, 2006). In relation to the Asia Pacific region, Pearce (2004) has identified major issues for tourism research and suggested that embracing a variety of epistemological approaches to knowledge and meth- odologies as well as focusing on the development of conceptual schemes would be beneficial for research in the region. Furthermore, Edgell (2013, 2014) has

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been continuously monitoring important issues and trends that affect tourism development by means of reviewing literature, conference themes and programs, forecasts, Delphi studies and conversations with or comments from tourism academics and students. One of the latest journal publications regarding Asia Pacific tourism trends was a special issue of Journal of Travel Research (vol. 53, no. 6, 2014). The topics include visitor number forecasting, workforce-related issues, future of volunteer tourism, nature-based tourism, eMarketing, domestic tourism, carbon emis- sions and changing patterns of mobilities in the region.

Various industry organisations have been analysing tourism and travel trends. For example, UNWTO (2014) annually publishes Tourism Highlights which identify arrivals and expenditure. World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC, 2014a) looks at short-term trends in economic impact of tourism and publishes monthly updates. Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA, 2014) publishes thematic reports on Asia Pacific travel-related issues and trends (e.g. China’s visitor economy and air passenger taxes). International organisations that are not tourism specific also look into tourism trends (OECD, 2014). Other notable trend pub- lications include those from ITB Berlin (2014), Euromo- nitor International (2014) and Skift (2014).

Methods

This research is exploratory and constructivist in nature. It looks at a specific time period and aims to understand a phenomenon and the influences that shape it, that is, to construct a meaning. Links between various themes are sought for a better understanding of the phenomenon under investi- gation (Krippendorff, 2012; Schreier, 2012; Silverman, 2013). The present research utilises content analysis of articles from tourism industry/trade magazines in order to analyse current trends for Asia Pacific tourism. For the purpose of this study, TTG Asia, Travel Weekly US and Travel Weekly UK – the three leading tourism and travel trade magazines – were selected for the analysis. Since TTG Asia focuses on the Asia Pacific region, all articles from its issues were analysed. Only those articles directly related to the Asia Pacific region were selected from Travel Weekly US and Travel Weekly UK via keyword search for “Asia” and “Pacific”. Additionally, reports related to tourism in Asia and the Pacific from BBC World News were included. A total of 499 articles were obtained and included in this content analysis. Only

articles of approximately 400 words or more were selected, as they cover topics in greater details. Pro- motional articles and articles without an author name have been excluded (Miller, 1997). The current sample is large enough to include rare cases, even though this is not necessary for the fulfilment of the objectives of this research: analysis of the general themes appear- ing in text (Krippendorff, 2012). The present research did not aim for an in-depth qualitative analysis of the textual data that would require analysis of the symbols or “reading between the lines”. Such in- depth approaches are better suited for analyses of limited size of textual data (Silverman, 2013).

The QDA Miner and WordStat software package was utilised for the management and analysis of the textual data (LaPan, 2013; Lewis & Maas, 2007; Silver, 2015). The general approach to data analysis is based on Pan et al. (2008), who have undertaken content analysis of industry publications to identify Asia-Pacific trends. The textual material was coded using several approaches. The first set of codes was developed based on previous research by Pan et al. (2008) in anticipation of finding similar themes. The themes from Pan et al. (2008) are provided in the pre- vious section of this paper. Using the WordStat, word frequencies were checked to identify the most common terms and phrases used within the text. The text under analysis was then read to assign codes. After the manual coding of the text, the key- words that have been listed for each code were retrieved for an automatic coding. This allowed for coding of the text that has been possibly missed during manual coding. Thus, both keyword analysis and code-and-retrieve analysis have been undertaken (Silverman, 2013). A total of 245 codes were created and combined into 31 categories. Some codes were closely related. The codes were analysed in terms of the frequency of occurrence across all articles. Based on these results, the codes were regrouped to form trends. A total of 174 codes were used to develop 18 trends.

By utilising co-occurrence and cluster analysis, which are functions within QDA Miner, it was possible to link codes to explain current dynamics in the tourism industries. The cluster analysis of codes and categories provided a basis for further discussion of the relationships amongst various arising themes. Fur- thermore, the network data were exported to network analysis software: Gephi (n.d.). It provided a network graph of the trends identifying the relationships. Thus, the research utilises mixed-method textual

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analysis combining quantitative content analysis based on frequencies with qualitative analysis of text aiming at understanding the linkages between the categories and influences that shape identified themes (Silverman, 2013).

However, the study is subject to several limitations. The main limitation of the method used is that it is impossible to reproduce the study. Plurality of meaning and subjective interpretation of meaning within the text by a reader, that is, the researchers, are inherent issues concerning analysis of content (Krippendorff, 2012). Moreover, some codes have various degrees of “fit” into each category and may be found to be equally suitable for a different category by a different researcher. Another limitation is that the findings are based on the analysis of text only from four sources. Wider search would improve the under- standing of current processes within the region and especially various subregions. Despite these limit- ations, the authors argue that the approach taken for the present research provides a basis for an impor- tant discussion.

Content Analysis Results: Appraising the Constancy of Change

The following is the discussion of trends, which focuses on issues that require additional attention in further research. The discussion reconciles information provided in the reviewed industry articles with the academic literature. Table 1 lists the major trends resulting from the selected media analysis (sorted by frequency of their appearance in the reviewed indus- try publications) and the following subsections discuss major themes emergent from the trends. Comparisons are also drawn to Asia Pacific trends identified in pre- vious studies undertaken in 2005 and 2008, respect- ively. Notably, the “Experience Economy” emerges as the leading theme. “Activity-Oriented Tourism” stands as the second most frequently mentioned trend, taking different types of activities or alternative forms of tourist experiences. “Marketing and eCom- merce” is the third most popular theme, as desti- nations and companies attempt to attract more visitors from diverse markets. The “Hotel Sector” con- tinues its expansion and diversification, and therefore attracts media attention. “Emerging Markets” is the fifth trend as market structures are changing with growing importance of Asia being both origins of and destinations for tourists. Next, “Regulatory and Political Environment” is identified as an important

factor in relation to political stability in a destination society, and support for tourism development by governments and international organisations. In com- parison to the two previous time periods presented in Table 1, this analysis has been undertaken after the global financial crisis and during the European debt crisis. These events have accelerated the shift of economic power towards Asia. As a consequence, the tourism sector has also changed with the Asia Pacific region representing both important outbound market and a more accessible and diversified destina- tion with high proportion of intra-regional travel (ITB Berlin, 2015).

Based on a network view (Figure 1), it appears that these trends are closely linked or interrelated. Seven- teen out of 21 trends (activity-oriented tourism is represented in Figure 1 by four sub-trends) are directly linked with each other based on the analysis. Another four trends (food and wine tourism, investment climate, social/environmental consciousness and sea- sonality) are directly linked to all except one trend. Therefore, the network of trends represents a single cluster. The position of a trend within the network is determined based on how closely it is linked to other trends. The number of co-occurrences within the same paragraph of an article determined how closely these trends are linked. The size of a node (each circle representing a trend) is based on betweenness and centrality – that is, how often a node serves as a “bridge” between two other nodes. The colour of a node is determined by eigenvector centrality – a calculation of how influential a node is in the network. The colour of the label is determined by the weighted degree of a node – how many times it has been linked to all other trends. The colour of edges (lines between nodes) is determined by the degree – the number of links between two trends (Jackson, 2010). In all cases darker colour or larger size suggests higher occurrence of a trend in the media and a higher influence of it. These relation- ships form a basis for the subsequent in-depth discus- sion of the trends that are perceived as influential to future tourism development in Asia and the Pacific.

Per analytic integration and synthesis, eight broad themes have emerged from the analysis that merit in- depth discussion. These themes encompass experience economy and experience activities, technology and innovation, changes in market profiles, planning and political environment, transportation and the value of coopetition, human resources, business travel, Meet- ings, Incentives, Conferences, and Events (MICE) and

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events, and sustainability. Each trend from Table 1 is presented within the relevant broad theme as provided in Table 2. The trends are presented according to the frequency of occurrence provided in Table 1.

Experience Economy and Experience Activities

As noted by Bellows, editor of National Geographic Travel- ler, “Today vs. even five years ago, it’s more experiential. Live-like-the-locals. Slow it down. Transformational. Well- ness. Spiritual”.

(Travel Weekly US, 16 April 2013)

The term “experience economy” has gained popularity since the publication of Pine and Gilmore (1999). Organisations involved in tourism are constantly developing new experiential products, and itineraries to new destinations. Unique experiences and accesses to places that were “off-limits” are attractive to modern travellers. Differentiation of products, interest in exotic locations and authentic experiences are not new in tourism research (Cohen, 1984; Gonsalves, 1987; Singh, 1997). However, the transformation of the traveller and transformative travel appear to be

an under-researched area (Lean, 2012); therefore, further investigation is required into psychological impacts of travel and travel as a complex social phenomenon.

The hotel sector has become involved in delivering travel experience and destination immersion to the guests with even more sophisticated property design and variety of facilities available. However, there is little research on areas such as design and themes of Asian hotels. More publications on various types of hotels, such as boutique hotels (Henderson, 2011), would be beneficial to demonstrate the diver- sity of accommodation options in the Asia Pacific region.

Compared to Pan et al. (2008), several subcate- gories within activity-oriented travel have become trends in their own right as they have acquired a sub- stantial coverage in the media. These are nature-/ culture-based travel, food and wine tourism and cruise tourism. The importance of nature-based tourism is evidenced by Frost, Laing, and Beeton (2014). However, management of nature-based tourism assets, which are mostly presented by

Table 1 Trends in Asia Pacific Tourism

Rank Trends 2014 Case

occurrences (%) Trends 2005 Trends 2008

1 Experience economy 484 97.2 Activity oriented Activity oriented 2 Activity-oriented tourism 445 89.4 China fever Business travel 2.1 Nature/culture-based tourism 344 69.1 eTravel Hotel industry 2.2 Food and wine tourism 168 33.7 Business travel Aviation industry 2.3 Cruise tourism 87 17.5 Aviation industry Polarisation 2.4 Other activity-oriented tourism 350 70.3 Competition/cooperation Socio-environmental awareness 3 Marketing and ecommerce 431 86.5 Low-cost carriers Competition/cooperation 4 Hotel sector 386 77.5 Polarisation IT and eCommerce 5 Emerging markets 384 77.1 Hotel industry Emerging markets 6 Regulatory and political

environment 371 74.5 Political influence Safety and security

7 Role of travel companies 326 65.5 Travel agent transformation Demographic niche markets 8 Polarisation 323 64.9 Experience Economy Chasing Chinese market 9 Infrastructure development 298 59.8 Emerging destinations Low-cost carriers 10 Aviation growth 294 59.0 Social–environmental

consciousness Strategic marketing

11 Coopetition 284 57.0 Safety and health Infrastructure 12 Human resources 264 53.0 Demographic niche markets Experience economy 13 Diverse demographics 206 41.4 India fever Medical/health and wellness

tourism 14 Investment climate 182 36.5 Timely communication 15 Corporate travel 157 31.5 Image/branding 16 Social/environmental

consciousness 151 30.3 Infrastructure

17 Events 129 25.9 Human resources 18 Seasonality 96 19.3 Multi-destination travel

Intra-regional travel Shrinking world Regional tourism organisations Marketing

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protected areas, is challenging and requires further investigation (Eagles, 2014). One of the greatest challenges is financing protection of natural areas (Whitelaw, King, & Tolkach, 2014). Regarding cultural and heritage tourism, Prideaux and Timothy (2013) identify such key issues in Asia and the Pacific as reten- tion of authenticity and contestation of heritage and cultural sites between tourism and traditional

activities. These require further research in order to provide policy-makers and civil society with rec- ommendations on appropriate governance of heri- tage (Su & Xiao, 2009).

Local cuisine has become one of the important selling points for many destinations. Food and wine have become an important part of the overall travel experience. Travel and celebrity chef shows to a

Figure 1 Network Structure of Asia Pacific Tourism Trends.

Table 2 Discussion Themes and Corresponding Trends

Discussion theme Corresponding trends in Table 1

Experience economy and experience activities

Trend 1 –Travelling is increasingly experience based Trend 2 – Experience economy demands activity-oriented travel Trend 4 – Hotel Sector will keep growing and diversifying

Technology and innovation Trend 3 - Marketing, eCommerce and IT remain important as innovation continues Trend 7 – Role of travel companies is changing under the influence of FITs and the Internet

Changes in market profiles Trend 5 – Tourism growth will continue, buoyed by strong performance of emerging markets of Asia Trend 8 – Travel markets are polarised between the high-end and budget travel Trend 13 – The tourism industry is further segmented according to demographic categories

Planning and political environment Trend 6 – Regulatory and political environment will determine where tourists will go Trend 14 – Future growth of travel will depend on the investment climate, taxation and regulation

Transportation and the value of coopetition

Trend 9 – Infrastructure development is one of the main constraints for tourism growth Trend 10 – Aviation industry is growing with new flight connections to be introduced Trend 11 – Despite the competitiveness of tourism sector, cooperation remains important

Human resources Trend 12 – The tourism industry will have to work harder to recruit and develop talents. Business travel, MICE and events Trend 15 – Companies limit budgets on corporate travel, while business travellers aim to combine

business with leisure Trend 17 – While mega events are drawing the attention of the world, local cultural festivals are being rediscovered to attract experience-seeking travellers

Sustainability Trend 16 – Travel is becoming more socially and environmentally conscious; however, the industry has to contribute more effectively towards sustainable development

Seasonality Trend 18 – Some destinations manage to have high visitation year round, while others struggle to lessen the effects of seasonality

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large extent have been driving this trend. Food tourism research often utilises a marketing perspec- tive (Horng & Tsai, 2010). For example, Thai govern- ment uses Thai cuisine in the promotion of Thailand as a destination (Suntikul & Tang, 2014). Further research could focus on social, ethnographic and gas- tronomic approaches to food tourism.

Research on cruise tourism acknowledges the high growth of this sector in the Asia Pacific region (Sun, Feng, & Gauri, 2014). Much of the growth is occurring in East and Southeast Asia where this trend has begun in the late 1990s (Singh, 1999). There is growth in Chinese-only cruises, which is challenging for some operators due to necessary adjustments for this segment (Fan & Hsu, 2014). A large expansion is occur- ring within the river cruises; however, this sector is under-researched compared to ocean cruises. The biggest challenge for future growth in cruise tourism is the port and road infrastructure. While Singapore and Hong Kong have developed cruise terminals, other ports of call remain primarily used by cargo ship- ping. Cruise tourism is a high-cost activity with expec- tation of public money expenditure on infrastructure. With increasing competition among the ports in Asia, destinations have to think carefully whether they should invest in cruise tourism instead of less costly alternatives (Brida & Zapata, 2010).

Other notable activity-oriented types of tourism include wellness/medical tourism in Thailand, Korea and Singapore; integrated resorts with casinos and/ or theme parks in Singapore, Malaysia and Macau; shopping tourism, weddings and honeymoons in Thailand, Malaysia, Maldives, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and film-induced tourism in New Zealand, Korea and Thailand. There is now a breadth of research literature on most of these topics. While the trend towards diversification and activity-oriented travel is evident, prior research suggests that segmentation of tourists based on activities may lead to inaccurate results, myths and/or misunderstandings (McKercher & Chan, 2005; McKercher & Prideaux, 2014).

Technology and Innovation

- So if someone tells you there is not much going on with OTA [online travel agencies] innovation, you’d say … rubbish. There’s huge innovation.

(TTG Asia, No. 1661, 15–21 June 2012)

New technology is constantly being developed to achieve marketing, promotion and sales objectives. Mobile marketing has become widespread with new

platforms being rapidly developed and used for booking and sales via mobile phones (Skift, 2014). OTAs and mobile apps are being embraced by consu- mers in emerging markets. Some academic research has been undertaken on relationships between tra- ditional travel agencies, OTAs, suppliers and consu- mers (Andreu, Aldás, Bigné, & Mattila, 2010; Law, Buhalis, & Cobanoglu, 2014). Nevertheless, there appears to be a research gap with regard to travel agencies transformation in the Asia Pacific region. While some research examined distribution channels (Huang & Chuang, 2013), further work on power asym- metries amongst actors in the travel sector value chain would be of benefit (Ford, Wang, & Vestal, 2012). Sur- prisingly, social media and blogs have not achieved high recognition in the reviewed industry articles. Indeed, Leung, Au, and Law (2015) note that e-market- ing is an under-researched area in Asia.

Technological advancement, such as sharing economy, may significantly disturb hospitality and tourism sector in the future. The sharing economy is also known as collaborative consumption or peer-to- peer marketplace. It refers to the practice when owners of goods and services share them (e.g. through rent) for a time period with consumers (Byers, Proserpio, & Zervas, 2013; Skift, 2014). The trans- action takes place via an online platform. One part of this new economy is shared accommodation, which is distributed through websites such as Airbnb and Couchsurfing and is gaining prominence around the world (Guttentag, 2013). In 2014 Airbnb focused on its growth in China and wider Asia (Kokalitcheva, 2014). However, there are already similar local services operating in China (Cheung, 2014).

Changes in Market Profiles

Taleb Rifai, UNWTO Secretary General, was quoted as saying, “Amid the current economic uncertainty, tourism is one of the few economic sectors in the world growing strongly, driving economic progress in develop- ing and developed countries alike and, most importantly, creating much needed jobs”.

(Travel Weekly UK, 12 September 2012)

Tourism growth has continued largely driven by strong demand in domestic and regional travel in Asia. Outbound tourism is no longer dominated by Europe and the USA (UNWTO, 2011). The typical “north-to-south” travel pattern that has been dominat- ing world tourism for more than half a century has been gradually changing with the emergence of Asia

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markets since the turn of the century (Xiao, 2013). On the contrary, European destinations are attempting to attract more Asian travellers. Despite the emergence of related academic literature over a decade ago (Arlt, 2006; Chen, 2001; March, 1997; Zhang & Heung, 2002), the industry appears to be slow to adjust to this trend. China and India continue with strong growth in outbound travel; however, India does not appear to attract much media attention. Emerging markets may be volatile and situation can change quickly as demonstrated by Russia’s outbound tourism which exhibited rapid growth in 2012–2013, but is in sharp decline in 2014–2015 (HKTB, 2014). Muslim market is another emerging segment. Halal food and Shariah-Compliant Hotels are emerging to attract Muslim travellers from the Middle East and Southeast Asia (Wang, Ding, Scott, & Fan, 2010; Xingang, 2014).

The travel markets are increasingly polarised between luxury and budget products (ITB Berlin, 2014). The meaning of “luxury” has been changing from simply monetary value to exclusive access to experiences (Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie, 2014). Asia appears to lag behind in this trend (Yeoman, 2011); thus research into perceptions of luxury would be useful. The budget travel from Asia has seen a sharp rise due to growth in disposable income and generated growth in budget accommo- dation catering for domestic and intra-regional travel (Chan & Ni, 2011). The research in understanding demand and supply in domestic and intra-regional budget travel in Asia and the Pacific has been limited so far. Visitor profile in the Asia Pacific region is becoming more complex. One hypothesis that appeared in the media and requires testing is that a mix of guests from different source markets is prefer- able to dominance of one ethnic market. Line and Runyan (2012) have found that research into segmen- tation, positioning and targeting has been on a decline, despite Tsiotsou and Ratten’s (2010) call for more research. A portfolio analysis of market mix pro- posed by Chen, Jang, and Peng (2011) can be further developed and utilised for these purposes. Moreover, research into migration and visiting friends and rela- tives would further improve understanding of factors impacting travel flows (Cave & Hall, 2015).

Planning and Political Environment

While national tourism organisations often paint pictures of what tourism outcomes in 2020 will look like, it is just

as important that they flesh out how they intend for the trade to get there. Travel experts would also do well to chart their own 2020 roadmap.

(TTG Asia, No. 1662, 29 June to 5 July 2012)

It is acknowledged that future tourism development requires careful long-term strategic planning and pol- icies and regulations on behalf of not only national tourism organisations, but also other government bodies, international organisations and the industry (Edgell, 2013; OECD, 2014). A vivid example of the importance of policies is implementation of Tourism Law of the People’s Republic of China (CNTA, 2013) which imposed stricter rules on Chinese tour oper- ators. One of the most important policy issues is visas, since they represent barriers to the tourist flows (Edgell, 2013; Skift, 2014). Another regulatory issue is taxation. Heated debates have surrounded Airport Passenger Duty and Emissions Trading Schemes in Europe that would increase airfares and thus endanger tourist flows between Europe and Asia (PATA, 2014; WTTC, 2014b).

Linked to the diversification of destinations is the issue of political stability. Democratisation of Myanmar has rapidly made it one of the most sought after destinations in Southeast Asia (UNWTO, 2014). However, political situation is a constraining factor for tourism development in much of South and Southeast Asia. On the other hand, politics have stimulated tourism to other destinations, such as North Korea. A new type of tourism has emerged that focuses on current affairs at destinations that have been inaccessible for some years. It has been termed “Taboo Travel” (Baran, 2013), “Political Tourism” (Moynagh, 2008) or “Post-Conflict Tourism” (Causevic & Lynch, 2011). This phenomenon deserves more attention from the academics.

Transportation and the Value of Coopetition

During an era where airlines are haemorrhaging millions of dollars due to volatile fuel prices, growing competition and the global economic slowdown, carriers are seeking ways to cut costs and increase scale in order to stem the bleeding.

(TTG Asia No. 1666, 24 October to 6 September 2012)

Transport infrastructure in many cases lags behind the demand and supply of tourism in the Asia Pacific region. Air connectivity in this region has been increasing, due to growth of flights and establishment of new links between cities and countries (AAPA, 2014). The constraining factor for aviation growth is

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the airports’ capacity to deal with the traffic, and Asia’s megacities remain underserviced (IATA, 2011). While there were not many news related to fuel prices, sharp decline in oil and fuel prices has been welcomed by the industry (AAPA, 2014). Edgell (2013, 2014) also highlights the importance of fuel price fluctuations. Becken (2011) has pointed out a broader issue: the lack of knowledge about the relationship between oil and tourism, the issue that merits further research in the region (Buckley, et al., 2015).

Support infrastructure, such as roadways and rail- ways, is important in cruise terminal and airport devel- opment (Cui, Kuang, Wu, & Li, 2013; Wang, Jung, Yeo, & Chou, 2014). Great progress is being achieved on land with high-speed railways creating new opportu- nities for domestic and intra-regional travel (Lopez, 2014; Perlez, 2014). In the South Pacific, international access to destinations and geographical isolation of individual destinations have remained an issue (Pri- deaux & McNamara, 2013). The increase in overall number of arrivals to a destination in the highly com- petitive environment necessitates cooperation. This suggests that coopetition (partial cooperation in a competitive environment) is a common practice (Edgell, 2013). Regarding the issues of collaboration and competition, future research should focus on sup- pliers and intermediaries rather than destination com- petitiveness (Song, Liu, & Chen, 2013; Tsai, Song, & Wong, 2009). Game theory approach could be a useful methodology for understanding cooperation and competition in tourism (Mohammed, Guillet, & Law, 2015; Song, Dwyer, Li, & Cao, 2012).

Human Resources

The most important thing for companies to realise is, it is a competitive marketplace. Just like you compete for cus- tomers, you need to compete for talent … To engage [the new generation], keep them focused, interested, ener- gised, motivated, challenged, recognised, accelerated – that is what any industry should be doing.

(TTG Asia, No. 1682, 19 April to 2 May 2013)

In 2012 at G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, tourism has been recognised as an important driver for job creation (UNWTO, 2012). However, hospitality and tourism are still not perceived as an attractive career in the Asia Pacific region (Jiang & Tribe, 2009; Lo, Mak, & Chen, 2014; Richardson & Butler, 2012). Gener- ation Y should be potentially attracted to hospitality and tourism jobs, since the sector suits some of the generational characteristics. For example, Generation

Y are brought up on Internet and social networks, and has less patience and high expectations of fast career progression. Moreover, “Gen Y” are creative, flexible, like socialising, like to feel affiliated and are socially and environmentally conscious (Cairncross & Buultjens, 2010; Strauss & Howe, 2000). However, Gen- eration Y expect high rewards, which hospitality and tourism sector often fails to provide in the initial stages of a career.

Industry needs for future workforce in tourism and hospitality have been proactively analysed by Solnet et al. (2014). Such needs include skills and expertise of employees and visionary leadership among execu- tives (Edgell, 2013; Guillet, Yaman, & Kucukusta, 2012; Ladkin & Weber, 2011). Training and education are recognised as paramount for business success amidst rising tourist expectations. Another possible future workforce issue for Asia and the Pacific is related to the depletion of labour resources in the rural areas as evidenced by high urbanisation rates, while there is a growing tourism demand in the plea- sure periphery (Robinson, et al., 2014). Further investi- gations into the future of tourism education, such as the ones by Airey, Tribe, Benckendorff, and Xiao (2015) and Dredge et al. (2013), would be beneficial. Attracting talent to the hospitality and tourism sector and developing future leaders are arguably the most important current issues in this human inten- sive industry.

Business Travel, MICE and Events

The bleasure (combining business with leisure activities) phenomenon is also changing the way people meet: resorts are becoming a more popular destination for business travel and meetings, less time is being spent cooped up in the boardroom (reduced to an average of a day, with as many as two or three days spent in break- out sessions), and more time is being spent on programmes that include working with social and environmental charities. (TTG Asia, No. 1673, 30 November to 13 December 2012)

A new phenomenon is growing among the business travellers to combine business with travel activities. More meetings are held in the resorts, when business- men tend to bring their spouses along and enjoy local tours or other entertainment. According to Skift (2014), this trend is the result of demands of millennial generation, who tend to combine leisure with work and are used to flexibility and customisation. Ho and McKercher (2014) note that the business tourism lit- erature is rather scant and further research is required

ASIA PACIFIC TOURISM TRENDS 1079

to understand business travellers, who are not a hom- ogenous segment. With regard to MICE, a number of new conference and convention venues have opened within the region and competition amongst MICE destinations in Asia and the Pacific is likely to intensify (Jin, Weber, & Bauer, 2012; Mair & Whitford, 2013).

A number of articles promote sport and cultural events to attract visitors. A growing number of sport events take place in the Asia Pacific region. Cultural festivals can be a draw for the growing number of cul- tural tourists in the region. Government involvement is often required for successful mega events to take place due to long-term planning and infrastructure development. Getz (2012) has provided a review of the events studies to date, as well as identified issues for further research. Staging events is an impor- tant means to creating experiences, and therefore requires phenomenological research. Asia and the Pacific with their wealth of festival traditions have the potential to greatly contribute to cross-cultural research. Major events, such as Olympic Games, require great investment resulting in great risks (Weber & Ali-Knight, 2012). Thus, further economic, cost-benefit analysis is required.

Sustainability

The industry needs to promote and pursue sustainable growth, which ensures benefits for consumers, businesses, local people and the environment.

(Travel Weekly UK, 8 April 2013)

Responsible tourism, sustainable development, liveli- hoods of local communities and preservation of indi- genous cultures received great attention from tourism scholars (Higgins-Desbiolles, Trevorrow, & Sparrow, 2014; Prideaux & Timothy, 2013; Smith & Richards, 2013; Spenceley, 2010). However, the topic of sustainability has been far from dominating indus- try news. National tourism organisations and inter- national bodies such as UNWTO and PATA appear to be more interested in sustainable tourism develop- ment than the private sector. Low interest towards sustainability issues within the tourism industry is evident from academic research as well (Buckley, 2012; Buckley, et al., 2015; McKercher, Mak, & Wong, 2014). More efforts are required to develop awareness within the industry on how to embed sustainability in their business, and how sustainable practices will benefit the business, especially in the era of responsible and experience-based travel.

Rather than developing new theoretical models, more empirical research on tourism impacts that goes beyond case studies is required. More action research to influence tourism sector would be beneficial.

Seasonality

During high season you can play around with pro- motions, but you must be very careful with expenses in the low season.

(TTG Asia, No. 1663, 13 July to 19 July 2012)

Some destinations that have a mix of business and leisure travellers, as well as those located in pleasant climate are less affected by seasonality. Others con- tinue to struggle to cope with high seasonality. This issue is further affected by the growing trend in weekend getaways, creating high variations between days of the week. There has been a lack of research into seasonality, which is a traditional tourism and hospitality issue. It has been often approached from the demand forecasting perspective (Chang & Liao, 2010). The issue of seasonality will become more pro- minent in the near future due to change in tourist pre- ferences and environmental factors, for example, global warming impact on ski resorts (Pegg, Patterson, & Gariddo, 2012).

Conclusion

In summary, this paper presented a content analysis of 499 industry magazine articles and discussed on the emerging trends for tourism in the Asia Pacific region. Some factors underpinning tourism develop- ment in this region remained unchanged after Singh (1997) and Leiper and Hing (1998): economic growth, political liberalisation, improved accessibility and technological advancement. This analysis found that a significant shift towards the experience economy has been driving most of the other trends in Asia and the Pacific. New technological advance- ments such as the “sharing” economy are able to transform the sector significantly. In terms of visitor arrivals and receipts, the future of tourism for Asia and the Pacific as a whole is bright; however, within the region the differences are rather stark with more rapidly developing countries of East and Southeast Asia being at the forefront of tourism growth. Despite this, there seems to be a gap in under- standing the needs and desires of tourists, whose demographic, socio-economic and psychological

1080 D. TOLKACH ET AL.

profiles have been changing over the years. Another significant challenge is attracting talents to the indus- try. Growth of hospitality and travel may not be sus- tained if the sector is unsuccessful in competition with other industries for human resources. Moreover, lack of understanding of sustainability and lack of sus- tainable tourism planning may undermine long-term development of the region to continually benefit live- lihoods of the people whose culture is an increasingly important tourism product, and to preserve the unique nature that attracts tourists to the region in the first place.

By implications, this review discussion and critique have encompassed a large variety of trends and issues that merit future research for contributions to be made to the theory and practice of Asia Pacific tourism in particular and to world tourism in general. Further, due to the nature of academic versus prac- titioner knowledge and the fact that Anglo-European paradigms may not always apply to culturally and his- torically distinct regions that in themselves have great differences amongst their subregions or countries (Winter, 2009), ongoing monitoring of changes and tourism trends from indigenous perspectives – in Asia and the Pacific and indeed in “other” world regions – will have made timely and useful readings for future tourism academics and practitioners alike.

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